tv Making Money With Charles Payne FOX Business January 30, 2023 2:00pm-3:00pm EST
not? taylor: going to call this confession and conspiracy theories segment as well. someone who is a huge philly fan must be in charge of lighting the empire state building that is the only this happens. brian: infiltration. jackie: outrage on the "new york post" cover this morning. i saw it in a bump shot. is that st. patrick's -- what are they doing? brian: anything but the eagles winning a football game. taylor: day six we did it. loved every moment. thanks tell us what you like. email us at big money show @@fbn fox.com. that does it for us. "making money with charles payne." charles, almost stole the name of your show. charles: you can borrow it. happy monday. i'm charles payne this is making money. markets are sort of guarded.
it is a crucial, crucial week. we've got earning, the rate decision, we have the jobs report. meanwhile retail investors though have been extremely excited and they have been making big money. professional investors not so much. they have been worried. which side has to blink first? i have on deck for you, liz ann sonders, jack ablin, jim awad. speaking of making big money, if you listened to jon najarian's tesla options strategy you made big money. he is back with a options strategy for apple, one of the big names reporting this week. he is not the only one. if you listened to danielle shay, you would have made a lot of money. good thing we have her back at 2:15 p.m. american families watching huge cash piles fade. will they continue to turn to credit or a jump into the savings rate maybe they're exhausted? we have economist chris low how it will influence the fed. i visited students today at ucf. say your future is in good
hands. all that and so much more on "making money." ♪. charles: all right, so we're starting week off on a more cautious tone. we've had a blistering start to 2023 and retail investors are partying like it is 1999. they loaded up on their favorite names and they are being rewarded with mind boggling returns. think about this tesla up almost 44% coming into the week. last week was the best week i think since may of 2013 and nvidia is rocking, amazon, those are just a few. meanwhile these big market moves though not sitting well with markest purists who are waiting for more boxes on the checklist to be checked off before they get into the mix. this of course the retail card, they have been thoroughbreds, champing at the bit. look at 9:30. people are buying the market every single day. at a major reason for confidence
among the retail crowd. it is assumption, i know what happens when you assume, that the federal reserve is ready to signal a pause. professional investors are somewhat circumspect. i want to bring in charles schwab liz ann sonders. liz ann, since the fomc meeting it has come down markedly. we heard the fed officials before the blackout period they seemed ready to pause somewhat but will the fed recognize or acknowledge the pace of decline if so what do they do with the harsh rhetoric they have been hitting us with? >> oh, i think the rhetoric has become much less harsh, certainly in between meetings when you get panoply of speakers aside from just powell and they did step down obviously to 50 basis points art the most recent meeting. right now the fed funds futures market have 100% expectation it will only be 25.
i'm, my guess the statement will leave the door open for another hike or two but, with language softened to suggest they're not going to need to ramp back up. they have been talking a little bit more about the effects looking forward of monetary policies that have already occurred versus just driving the car by looking in the rear view mirror at inflation only. charles: to that point, when jay powell brought up the lag, you know, the finally mentioned you know we recognize that there are lags with our policies and impact to the economy, that was the same, that was the same fomc q&a part where he kind of really doubled down on his determination to let's say be volckeresque. we heard from a lot of other fed officials. they do sound a bit softer, the big question, jay powell he seemed wedded to the notion that he is not going to pause even though the tea leaves suggest maybe that should be coming up soon? >> i think a pause probably happens fairly soon.
he is not really pushing back against a pause at some point. what he is pushing back against, i think rightly so, is a pivot to rate cuts. i think that is where the disconnect still exists not only what the messaging has been from the fed but more importantly the overall economic data. there is a contradiction in a market expecting one or two rate cuts next year and many of those same folks that believe that have a fairly optimistic economic and labor market outlook. there is a contradiction there. i think the only reason why the fed would not just pause, inflation coming down is a reason for a pause but pivot to rate cuts is a much more significant deterioration in the economy from here and in particular, in the labor market. so it's possible they have to start cutting but only with some near term pain. charles: right. >> this notion that just having inflation continue to come down is going to be a green light for
rate cuts, that makes no sense in my mind. charles: so, but having said that, to your point, usually the fed has to follow up these hiking cycles with a swift rate cuts because they have gone too far but they wait. they wait, they see the evidence. okay, we broke quite a few things. but you mentioned the jobs market. of course this central bank is only one with a dual mandate. feels to be somewhat of a contradiction, liz ann but a complication. could we have something akin to a full employment recession with things breaking that makes the fed decisions even tougher once you pause, when to actually pivot? >> well i think absent some deterioration in the labor market, particularly the headline metrics of payrolls and the unemployment rate then i think the fed probably does keep their foot on the, you know the economic break, via ongoing rate hikes. what they're really trying to do
is they're trying to sort of crush labor demand or job openings without crushing the labor market. now that said, even the fed itself has a forecast of one percentage point increase from where we are now in the unemployment rate which would be very much in keeping with history. so i think the unemployment rate does move up. what may be the case though unique to this cycle we don't see it move up as aggressively been the case in past recessions because of the demographics and necessity in some cases of companies trying to hang on to the hard fought labor. coming higher unemployment rate. a bit muted by some of the demographics and labor supply still being fairly low. charles: there is no doubt. we've never just had a 1.1% percentage.increase. usually there is something 2% or higher. like you said, maybe something of a different paradigm there.
liz ann, appreciate starting the show with you. >> thanks very much. nice to be here. charles: hey, folks, bring in crescent cio and founding partner jack ablin. jack, let me pick up on that because a lot of, a lot of other folks are saying too, one of the things, that for lack of a better word that angered jay powell and company has been when financial conditions have gone back up, right? the market all of sudden feels like hey, the coast is clear. we saw clear evidence of that with jackson hole, that speech where he slammed the hell out of the market. we saw that with the fomc gathering not long ago, this blistering start to 2023, could that play against the market during the fomc meeting? is the fed still focused keeping everything down including stock prices? >> i think they are. i think that they recognize really two pieces of financial well-being. 80% of the american households tie their financial well being
to a job. probably another 20% of american households tie their financial well-being to the value of their stock portfolio. i think the fed wants to see both the labor market cool and the stork market cool to try to tamp demand on both sides of that equation. charles: i'm sure if they're watching the market closely last couple weeks every time the companies report earnings, initially coming across the tape, okay, earnings have been coming down like crazy. even probably worse than the street was looking for. we had a whole bunch of misses. yet average one day gains reports up 1.2%. to put that into ear peck spif, the last three years when companies reported earnings the stocks went down. here they are with much lower earnings, they're still missing consensus and the stocks are popping. was there too much pessimism built in or too much optimism being built in now? >> no. i think there was probably near-term pessimism built in. i think the problem here is,
near term, is really the key. you know, remember, it takes time for higher interest rates to manifest in the economy and in profits and the unemployment rate. for example, if you just look at past rate hikes from the peak of the rate hike it takes nine months to reach a low in earnings. so, again, it is a delayed impact. for the unemployment rate it is almost two years for the unemployment rate to peak following a peak in the rate hike. so they recognize that there's a time lag and i think probably some of their frustration is the investing public, you know down see earnings declines to the extent that they have been told about. they're not seeing necessarily the employment picture worsen that quickly. so they are saying, forget the recession, let's go back to the
races. charles: reminds me of the old commercials not nice to fool mother nature. the retail investors they're not listening to the fed. the fed is getting a little bit upset about that. my mother used to say, don't make me come in there. with a minute to go, i got to ask but the big news last week. chevron with that 75 billion buyback and dividend announcement. listen i'm not a big fan of buybacks when insiders are selling at the same time. i think there is something unseemly about that, but regularly investors are part owners of businesses. they want to be rewarded. over the last several years we had over eight trillion in buybacks, six trillion in dividend payouts. should we be worried as investors in general there will be some sort of legislation that pushes back against these? >> i know there was the, you know, the talk about having that 1% buyback tax and we thought that would likely, you know, stamp buybacks.
you know it's interesting, you know, if you go back to the early 2000s, you know, what we found was a lot of tech executives were compensated with options. and so buybacks were a great way to boost the share price. then take shares from shareholders for themselves. and i think that given the choice of dividends and buybacks, from a political policy perspective dividends are a little more palatable, largely because you pay a little more in tax for them but they're a better way to align management with shareholders. charles: yeah. i kind of lean toward dividends as well just because i've seen buybacks abused but i don't think, i don't think d.c. should interfere how companies use their profits or even if they have got to borrow against it. jack, wish we had more time. always appreciate your insight. thank you. >> thanks, charles. charles: see you soon.
want to bring in our friend, clear stead advisors senior managing director jim awad. jim, all right, my man, i need your help. we have so much tension coming into this week. there is the professional investor woefully behind. individual investors are making a ton of money but still $4.6 trillion on the sidelines a record. then you have all these different viewpoints. we don't know exactly what the fed will say. will jay powell come at it with guns blazing in the q&a session, so many different things, how are you mapping them out in your head? >> well the big picture in the long run if you look ahead to 2024, you will have recovering economy, declining inflation, good profit comparisons against relatively weak 2023 and perhaps interest rates declining so i can see lining up for a very good year next year but short, short term the market's up a lot this month. it is speculative rally. low quality rally and the
markets assuming a couple of things. that we'll get two 25 basis point increases. that's it. that is probably true but we don't know that yet. that we'll have a soft landing. that's probably true also but we don't know that yet and you will get a lot of data and you have, this week you will get fed, powell's speech and then get more very important earnings reports this week. so on a short, short-term basis i think the market might have gotten ahead of itself. but the big picture we're setting ourselves up for very good year next year which will probably be anticipated towards back half of this year or -- charles: jim, i love you, my man. it is january. you're talking about 2024. that is what i call optimism, right? old school investor right there! >> no, but know it gets priced, it gets priced in 2023. it will start getting price ad few months from now. charles: okay. >> what i'm saying we have to walk in the mud a little bit further, but there is a nice
ocean on the other side. charles: what about this leadership? you alluded to low quality leadership. does that mean, those names have to sort of correct a little bit and then the quality names, whatever they might be move to the leadership, move to the front of the parade? >> yeah. let me be specific. you had some of the short-covering rally and the meme stocks do very well in january. now i'm saying that that needs to be reversed. the trend underneath that is the equal weighted indices are outperforming the keep weighted indices. i think that can continue for a while. you have the large growth stocks dominate for so long and that is unlikely to be the case going forward. so you probably have a more egalitarian market where more stocks do well than just the cap weighted indices. a little better for value versus growth a little better for small versus large, and a little better for em international versus the u.s. so that is the change that is
going on but i think when the absolute bull market returns it will carry all the boats. everything will go up. it will be a matter of degree, except for the meme stocks, speculative stocks and companies losing money that are still momentum retail stocks. charles: that are 40% of the names you can argue are trading zombies if you will. real quick, you mentioned em. a lot of folks come on the show. they love em. i feel like it is a january phenomenon. this year it is breaking out of the 10-year trend. do you think there is a long term move here? >> i think long term i would rather be in the united states but em is so underperformed for so long you could have a several month period of catchup based on relative valuations but i think secularly i think the united states is still the strongest game in town with the strongest economy, the strongest corporations, the strongest capital markets and the best transparency. charles: all right, jim, always
appreciate it when i can pull you off the beach to share some of that wisdom with us. thanks a lot, friend. >> no beach today. charles: all right, folks. there are some ideas, so many trends. of course there is so much to cover on the show. never enough time. one of the reasons i love writing my own daily market commentary. go to wstreet.com. you will love it. check it out. coming up, money supply in freefall but when does it exactly matter to the economy and how will that affected fed's decision making? later on i ask my guest chris low. my next guest gave us a options strategy last week. it paid off big time. jon najarian is back and to make us some big money. ♪
hi, i'm jason and i've lost 202 pounds on golo. so the first time i ever seen a golo advertisement, i said, "yeah, whatever. there's no way this works like this." and threw it to the side. a couple weeks later, i seen it again after getting not so pleasant news from my physician. i was 424 pounds, and my doctor was recommending weight loss surgery. so i decided to go with golo and it's changed my life. my cravings, they went away. and i was so surprised. you feel that your body is working and functioning the way it should be and you feel energized. golo has improved my life in so many ways. i'm able to stand and actually make dinner. i'm able to clean my house. i'm able to do just simple tasks that a lot of people call simple, but when you're extremely heavy they're not so simple.
golo is real and when you take release and follow the plan, it works. ♪. charles: so over the last year a lot of individual investors have been seeking refuge in the options market but it's a very dangerous place to play if you don't know exactly what you're doing. i'm glad we got our next guest, some of these folks calling his ideas magic. i want to bring in market
rebellion cofounder, jon najarian. first i have to give you props, my man. gave as you strategy on tesla last week t paid off big, big time. we try to help educate the audience of the just, in a broad strokes what goes into measuring the risk/reward of an idea like that? >> well, charles, we were trying to set ourselves up to maybe make a 300% return. in other words, a one to three ratio on the risk because there is always risk versus the reward and luckily it played out just the way you and i discussed. we had the 145 calls versus the 160s. that went to almost $15. by end of this week, if the stocks stay anywhere over 160, it will be $15 and we'll be better than 300% on that trade. charles: so, in essence, one part of the strategy more of an insurance policy and other one sort of swinging for the fences? >> yeah. because you're long the opportunity to take stock from
somebody at 145 because you bought that call. you gave somebody else the right to take it from you at 160. so again, that is a 15 point spread and we paid less than five dollars for it. so, obviously, again, if it is over 160, charles, we'll have about a 330% return. >> all right. put you in the hot seat, my man. around here you can take a victory lap. it's a short victory lap. >> that's right. >> let's go for the next one. a lot of major companies reporting this week including apple. not sure if it is volatile as some other names. obviously this is a fan favorite. what kind of strategy do you have in place for this one? >> well they're not betting as much on an explosive move to the upside in this one as they were in tesla, charles, but that doesn't mean that we can't make a really nice return. there is a lot of short-term trades that are right around the 150 strike for calls which means
the stock going up from where it is now to 150. those options doubled last week. that is a 100% return. i'm thinking they could double again but the real trade is out in april where they're buying up to the 155 and 160 strikes. and so i think it is probably going to grind higher over the next quarter, charles. that is what the smart money is setting up for. charles: talk about the federal reserve. they meet this week. last year we saw some extreme volatility associated with the fomc. in fact i think it was the last gathering or the one before that, set a record from the time they finished at 2:30 and powell began to speak to the flows. unfortunately a record tote downside. that is the kind of volatility where you make money on options. is there any kind of specific strategy? are you spying that for some spread like strategy? >> yeah. basically, the tlt is a bond etf. and it has options on it.
they are buying february options but the real trade here is, at about the march time frame, and they're pushing those pretty hard, betting by purchasing a call option because, that goes up when rates are going down, they're betting that rates might go back down below the year's lows. in other words, maybe down to 3.30 on the 10-year, charles. that is a pretty big move, even though it is only out till march. so that is the way i'm setting myself up too is, buying the 107s and selling the 111s right now to play the fed. charles: you know i tell you we hit the 3.40 mark, 3.7 once. i think next time we get down there to test it, if it doesn't hold, 3.30 would not be out of realm of possibility. i'm not sure about the time frame. i'm sure about one thing, you have the hot hand, jon, appreciate it. >> thank you, charles, a
pleasure. charles: coming up as we know gary k. is no fan of the fed. instead he listens to the market. so what is he hearing right now? i can't wait to hear from him. household savings are going down, down. how much longer can the consumer hang on? how much will that influence jay powell and company? we chris low and kristin bentz next. ♪.
- they get it. they know how it works. and more importantly, it works for them. - i don't have any anxiety about money anymore. - i don't have to worry about a mortgage payment every month. - it allowed me to live in my home and not have to make payments. - linda, dinah, joanne, very different people,
but they do have a couple of things in common. they love their home and they know their stuff. they all talked about the counseling they got so they knew how reverse mortgage worked and how it could be a real financial solution for their retirement. - [advertiser] if you are 62 or older and own your home, find out how you could access your home's equity to give you cash now and when you need it in the future. a reverse mortgage could put more money in your pocket by eliminating your monthly mortgage payments, paying off higher interest credit cards, and covering medical costs. - a person like me needed to get a reverse mortgage. it changed my life, it was the best thing i've ever done. - [tom selleck] really? - yes! without a doubt! - just like these folks, aag can show you how a reverse mortgage loan uses your built-up home equity to give you tax-free cash. they also know they can pay it back whenever it works for 'em. - it's a good thing. - [advertiser] call right now to receive your free
no obligation info kit. the kit will show you how you could get the cash you need using your home's equity as a reverse mortgage from aag. - call the number on your screen. - i've been with aag for quite a while now. i think they're the real deal. so look, why don't you get the facts, like these folks did, and see if a reverse mortgage could work for you? - [advertiser] call aag, the country's #1 reverse mortgage lender. - call the number on your screen. say goodbye to daily insulin injections with omnipod 5... a tubeless system that automatically adjusts insulin to help protect against highs and lows. try it today. go to omnipod.com for risk information and instructions for use. consult your doctor before starting on omnipod. to you, it may just be an elevator. here goes nothing. but for a young homeowner becoming their parents, it's a learning opportunity. come on in. [ chuckles ]
the more, the merrier. paris, huh? bonjour! we got any out-of-towners in the elevator? tom. it is not easy. 10th floor, huh? must be a heck of a view. okay, see how everyone else is facing this way? progressive can't save you from becoming your parents, but we can save you money when you bundle home and auto with us. okay, that was terrible. okay, let's hang back. we're gonna try that again. ♪. charles: welcome back to "making money." joining me fhn chief economist chris low. chris, the economy is certainly making the list where we're so concerned about inflation. now it business recession, a lot of things are sagging.
i think one of the biggest signs, gdp report. private demand went sort of a freefall here. of savings rates are starting to edge higher too. feels like this is an economy where everyone is bracing things to get worse. how would that impact the federal reserve? >> well it always takes them a while to recognize a shift like this and, this really was a fast turn. consumer spending was rapid in october. the weakness came in november and then accelerated in december. that rise in the savings rate as you sort of hint at, that is a usually a sign that people are growing more cautious. they're putting money away because they're starting to get nervous that maybe their jobs are at risk, maybe their income is at risk. but i think the fed is going to want to see that weakness continue into the first quarter at least before they change the way they're approaching the
economy. >> so the pang of canada last week did it. i guess they broke the covenant. they raised 25 basis points and used the pause word. they are going to pause. they took great pains to make sure no one thought they would cut rates. i don't think anyone believes that. now you had a major central bank have a pause could that have any influence over the fed? >> i think it maybe does a little bit the fact they're not all moving in lockstep but by the same token christine lagarde also last week said the ecb is going to tighten at its next meeting and still has work to do after that. and that seems to be the general view at the fed as well. i thought of chris waller's comment. he is a governor at the fed. wall hears previously said that the fed should keep pushing higher in rates but his latest is that, you know, we're in a
15-year high. we shouldn't be absolutely certain that it is going to have the same effect it has in the past. maybe it is appropriate to move more slowly anyway so we have a better sense of the effect on the economy. >> chris, let's talk about the money supply. a lot of folks keep pointing to m-2, that precipitous fall we've seen that hasn't happened in the modern era. go back to the 1920s, you can see the data there the notion that it does have a lag effect. i was reading research over the weekend that suggests maybe, maybe people misjudged when the lag effect kicks in. when do you think, how would the get model the sort of lag effect of all the work that they're doing, coupled with the fact that money supply has gone into free fall and recession is glowing? like the red flags are out there. >> you know one of the most amazing things about the fed when you think about it is that they spend so much time talking about their goal which of course
is to get inflation down at the moment and talking about unemployment and how that affects inflation but they don't talk about the monetary policy transmission mechanism and that is evident in things like credit growth and money supply growth. so when you have an unprecedented drop in money supply i think you do have to think, you know, it suggests that the fed is stepping on the brakes hard. it suggests that the economy could be in real trouble around the middle of the year, given the usual lags. and if you look at money supply in real terms, charles, it is down 6% in the last year. so really is a significant drop. charles: yeah. all right, we'll see. chris, you've been really spot on with all of this. so the plot thickens, my friend. i will talk to you again real soon. >> thank you. good to see you. >> you too. bring in kb advisor group their
founder, kristin bentz. kristen, we've been talking a lot on the show where the households are. it is intriguing because we saw the savings rate go up. we've seen credit card debt go higher. we know interest rates at record levels, yet they're out there spending. you heard, last week we heard from the ceo of american express. we heard from the ceo of visa. and they're out there saying you know what, the american consumer hasn't missed a beat. so when will the consumer be tapped out? >> very soon, charles. if you're watching any sort of defaulting with auto loans, that is starting to spike. so those chickens are coming home to roost. we talk about the consumer a lot and i think we need to do away with that blanket statement because they're really four different tranches of consumer. talking about the folks spending, we're talking about high net worth individuals, ultrahigh net worth individuals, but middle class, cracks are starting to show. you have the low end consumer still hanging on surviving but next couple months will be a
bumpy ride. >> okay. i'm not sure, i did not hear you toward the end. just say something to me? kristin? >> can you hear me? charles: i can hear you. you went out for a second. let me bring up louis vuitton, they reported. numbers mind-boggling, richest person in the world, thank you, stimmie checks. maybe there is another collaboration to pay attention to. i saw this ad, nike, tiffany, pretty good tease, sneaker box talking about a major collaboration. louis vuitton has bought tiffany. maybe they're looking for their magic there. what are you looking for. >> i think this collaboration is fantastic between nike and tiffany. that like having the cowboys and yankees, a slam-dunk to add any other sports reference to the commentary. lvmh buying tiffany. their jewelry, watch numbers up
18%. that is smart acquisition. another one by bernard arnault. that is another great acquisition for the consumer too. charles: what should we know with respect to retail? one reason i love you as a retail analyst, you're on the ground, you do that kind of work and well-respected in the industry but you connect the dots for us on the stock side. like this morning for instance, macy's upgraded at one firm, the same firm downgraded kohl's. you can't just throw a dart and say i like retail, can you? >> you can't. we talk about a bifurcated market with the consumer. you really need to pick your spots. every day it is fast nating with a darwinian moment in retail. macy's took sales down on holiday season. kohl's is self-inflicted hot mess. i take my pause there with those types of stocks but you really can't look at different areas of retail as a whole. you can't just sell teen retail. some teen retail is doing great.
some not so great. you have to really follow the best in breed. >> all right. sounds great. kristin, thank you very much. all right, folks, coming up, tesla, up 31% since danielle shay called it a buying opportunity. that was on this show last week. well she is back with us today. and she has got some new picks. again get ready to make some big money. first we have gary k., his analysis what he expects from the market. what he is hearing from the market. it is sending a message that many wall streeters are ignoring. we'll be right back. ♪.
♪ my relationship with my credit cards wasn't good. i got into debt in college and, no matter how much i paid, it followed me everywhere. between the high interest, the fees... i felt trapped. debt, debt, debt. so i broke up with my credit card debt and consolidated it into a low-rate personal loan from sofi. i finally feel like a grown-up. break up with bad credit card debt. get a personal loan with no fees, low fixed rates, and borrow up to $100k. go to sofi.com to view your rate. sofi. get your money right. ♪ ♪. charles: so one of the real interesting hallmarks of the 2023 rally is something that has
been really unusual, the most shorted stocks in the market have completely outperformed the broader market. in fact this month the 50 names highest short interest position in russell 3,000 have outperforms the s&p completely. i want to bring in kaltbaum capital management, their president, gary kaltbaum. gary, we see the short squeezes from time to time you know, it is so interesting because you know, they're always going to happen, particularly when you have so much pessimism and large short positions. but i have always associated them with a more accommodative fed. is it intriguing to you, they just happened right out of gate this year? >> actually, just got to remember, we mad a really bad december. a lot of these stocks that had this real strong move in the last few weeks are down 50, 60, 70, 80, some 90% and there is such huge short positions when they get going they get going. it feeds on itself until they finally hit a wall and because of fundamentals they come down
again. i'm watching carvana today, the talk is about possible bankruptcy soaring today. so you just don't know which one. and for me it is a little bit of a worry. i never want to see froth and speculation coming out of the gate when a market is trying to get out of a bear market. remember in august you had bed, bath & beyond go from 4 to 30 even though the talk was they're going out of business! you have to watch yourself. be careful around i always had the same line, don't be the last one in when they hit a wall eventually things will get better. a little worried about the short squeezes. if you're in, god bless you, if you're making money. charles: the operative word nimble, be very name before. in this case it is musical chairs. if the last one standing you are done. let's get your thoughts here what may happen this week. all right, so the street obviously, at least the people who have been active in this market believe that powell and company are going to pause. i don't think anyone believes they are going to cut.
i think a lot of folks on the street are misinterpreting people who are buying. for now a pause would be welcome relief for a lot of investors. are you getting a sense of, what is the market telling you? >> i hope that they're listening to the market. 10-year yield from 4.3, down to 3.5. if the fed talks tough from here, starts talking 5%, i'm not sure the market will be happy. remember they got it wrong the other way. when yields were skyrocketing the fed just sat there and slow-walked it. that hurt the stock markets because markets want these people to be right. so hopefully they get it. hopefully they are listening to us. raising another quarter pint, say you're on watch, just back away a little bit. you don't have to say too much. just a little bit of backing away. let the free markets be. if yields start spiking again, take action f yields stay down we're in better shape going forward. leave no doubt, commodity price have plunged a lot of things are
down. there is still decent inflation out there but much better than it was a few months ago. charles: i know you have become more aggressive than you have been since the peeks back in late 2021. i have less than a minute to go. what are you doing right now? have you done anything new this week? what is on the drawing board? >> told you three weeks ago i started buying again. i did more broad-based than anything because right before earnings i'm not a courageous person. i just did buy a little bit of tesla right after the earnings report. i'm babysitting it big time. because about that gets going it gets going. but otherwise now i have to wait. there are 35% of the nasdaq 100 reporting this week. a lot more are going forward. i want to see what kind of reactions we get. i will look for great reactions like in united rentals. love the company, love the stock. a little bit ahead of itself. pullbacks are warranted. i really like china. it is strongest area of the world right now. only on pullbacks which is
obliging me. hopefully there will be more on the pullback front. charles: sounds good. great stuff as usual. thank you i my friend. >> thank you. charles: always want to hear from you, comment on the show how we make it better. tweet me @cvpayne. i'm a huge fan @cvpayne, charles, sorry i can't be a bull in this economy. i replied you don't have to be a bull on the economy. be a bull on companies with cheap stocks. you wait nor the ideal scenario. i don't know. if you know let me know. meanwhile make some money. if you listened to my guest last week you bought tesla, you heard gary say it, you would be up 30%. danielle is back with more great names. ♪.
you'll always remember buying your first car. but the things that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price, our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. avalon advanced materials is planning to partner with lg energy solution to establish a new supply chain, to power the green energy transition. plus four advanced stage projects producing critical minerals including rare earths. avalon advanced materials.
say goodbye to multiple daily insulin injections with the new omnipod 5. the only tubeless automated insulin delivery system... that integrates with dexcom g6. automatically adjusting your insulin to help protect against highs and lows day or night. don't wait to simplify life with diabetes. get started today with no contract, and no commitment. go to omnipod.com for risk information and instructions for use. consult your healthcare provider before starting on omnipod. simplify diabetes. simplify life. omnipod. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.
volume. i think it's a great buying opportunity. charles: we like people give it to us, yes or know, buy, sell hold. danielle didn't mince words last week, tesla is a strong buy, only up 31%. put her in the hot seat. simpler trading vp of options danielle shay. first of all congratulations. you've been great like this for a long time. that is why we appreciate you, particularly in earnings week. so we have a lot of big names this week, apple, amazon, meta. you're looking, which ones of these are starting to stand out to you the most right now in terms of potential opportunity? >> you know, charles this week is going to be a major week much opportunity because the indexes themselves are right up against resistance. if you corporations can push us up through resistance showing us fantastic earnings reports, when i say fantastic, i mean what is expected, right? they're going to come it, hopefully they can tell us that they have the slowdown under control and we can see the
indexes move higher. if they can't do that, we're jug going to fall. right now really in focus this week, i have apple, amazon and google. i think thursday after the close is going to be the prime time where we're going to see if this rally is going to continue or not. charles: so how much exposure do you have to these names? i mean, again, you know, the big payoff when you're in it before they report and of course you have got to be on the ride side. a lot of names are down enough you can chase a gap higher. but for the big payoffs, which ones are you comfortable enough now to be long into the release? >> so, actually apple, that is going to be my largest holding. i have apple, i have microsoft. i have a lot of tesla as well. i like apple here. i think apple is a great relative strength winner. i like the way it ran into the report this quarter. however, it is also rallying directly into resistance. i have some google as well.
also some amazon. i would love to pick up some more amazon. i want to see they have a good game plan going forward. they have already noted they cut 18,000 jobs. i think that the layoffs of this quarter in particular is going to provide a good fuel for the market because it is going to demonstrate that these executives have pricing under control. they have the ability to continue you know, maneuvering higher throughout the course of the year. >> you know, danielle, you mentioned the breakout period the point we're at, feels better than before. one of the things we learned, people learn the hard way, you have bear market rallies. sometimes they can be huge. historically we've seen some as much as 40% off the lows. the last one that broke everyone's heart when the s&p got to the 200-day moving average. it all fizzled. if we, if we don't break out, something goes wrong between the fed and earnings reports can we go back to test like that october 13th low? could it be that that con --
consequential? >> absolutely, charles. for me at this point this is just a bear market rally. if we can continue going, that would change it for me. right now we have a massive head and shoulders on the nasdaq and s&p weekly chart this rally only completed the right shoulder. if we're not able to break through, we're going back down to the october lows. charles: oh, boy. like it when you give us straight, even if it is that painful. we'll see what happens. danielle, you're the best appreciate it. >> thank you. >> folks, we'll be right back. so cozy. how many rooms are in there? should we go check it out? yeah. we get to stay here all weekend! when you stay at a vrbo... i call doing the door code! ...the host doesn't stay with you.
it looks exactly like the picture. because without privacy in your vacation home... it's a full log cabin guys. ...it isn't really a vacation... we can snuggle up by the fire. ...is it? wow, oh my- [birds chirping] hi, i'm katie, i've lost 110 pounds on golo in just over a year. golo is different than other programs i had been on because i was specifically looking for something that helped with insulin resistance.
i had had conversations with my physician indicating that that was probably an issue that i was facing and making it more difficult for me to sustain weight loss. golo has been more sustainable. i can fit it into family life, i can make meals that the whole family will enjoy. it just works in everyday life as a mom. desert mountain energy, a primary helium producer, is poised for big things in early 2023, with the start of production at their arizona helium project and the commissioning of an accompanying processing facility. desert mountain energy. the phoneready quiz, from the american academy of pediatrics, will help you decide if you and your child are ready, almost ready or not yet ready for their first phone.
>> what advice can you give to a college student to set themselves up for financial freedom and success in their future? >> commitment and sacrifice. commit to a plan and understand that there's going to be a degree of sacrifice. that's the most important thing. and own something, right? own stocks, own bonds, own antique watches, own things that increase in value and will work for you while you're sleeping. all right, folks, so i had really a great honor of speaking ott students at university of central florida, or ucf, and it was absolutely phenomenal. i know i'm part of the crew, we bust their chops a lot, and there are some yellow flags when it comes to gen-z, but there's also a lot of i amazing signals. they are ready, in my mind, to take the baton despite the fact
they've got a whole lot more unnobodies than -- unmoans than -- unknowns than prior generations. moreover, they live in a time of constant group and -- gloom and dread. remember last week the doomsday can clock moved the closest it's ever been to annihilation of man kind? that's a lot to deal with. i met kids that asked insightful questions, and they want help. tau they don't want to be ridiculed, they're not sure how to navigate life, so they get that life has been pretty good for hem. and just like everyone else, even older americans, they wonder how do we keep this going. after walking around that sprawling campus and meeting some of their 70,000 students, my visit to ucf made me more confident about our future. liz claman, had a great time. liz: i'm so glad you told them to invest in things that up crease in -- increase in value, like diamonds. [laughter] that's my message, kids. all right.