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tv   Making Money With Charles Payne  FOX Business  February 2, 2023 2:00pm-3:00pm EST

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trustworthy it is gone you're so smart for doing so. wechat is so concerning because of the ability to influence everyone's world views. this is example documented by the atlantic council. there was information ahead of canadian parliamentary election in 2021. a lot of accounts were posted a lot of anti-conservative stories. they gained a lot of traction. some conservative members lost their election, and they blamed the information shared on wechat because it was so accessible by everybody. taylor: great way to end the show. lydia hu, we'll join you for more like a upbeat note like markets are. charles payne, "making money," will you get us out of bear market in the nasdaq? charles: on its way. i will do a lot. i will take it to the next level. finish what powell said yesterday. good afternoon, i'm
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charles payne. this is "making money." you sate it here yesterday jay powell he acknowledged inflation turned a corner. he suggested he could engineer a soft landing. there is no wonder he kept saying it is too early for a victory lap. he is thinking about a different kind of victory. will this be vindication for transitory fiasco? we'll see. speaking of mistakes, folks, wall street pros, you know it they're caught completely flat-footed either in cash or the wrong sectors. will they blink and join the party? i have best to shed light and strategies, brian belski and bob doll. i will is tracy shuchart, what the heck happened to oil? that was supposed to be a slam dunk. sven hendrichs is here. is the market too come place sent when what if october was the low? how high could the rally bo? ken any polcari has some answer. another mistake by the biden administration that will cost
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tax iers tens of billion of dollars. auld that and more on "making money". ♪. charles: all right, folks the plot thickens! so much has happened in the last 24 hours. here is the big thing turns out we riley did not know jay powell at all, right? think about this, the fed chair invoked paul volcker at every concern to underscore commitment to taming inflation but he never let on he was actually determined to do it without creating any significant economic damage. in other words, he think hes can engineer a soft landing. now here is the thing, eureka moment. we're living it right now, folks. you're watching this market explode, particularly high beta names. eureka, a he sitting in his pack tub, let the world know, forgot to get dressed. bottom line, maybe the market is believing possibly there will be a soft landing. remember there are two turning
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points yesterday in the commentary from jay powell. disinflation has begun. he said that a lot of times. wait till i tell you the number. there is path getting to inflation 2% without again causing significant economic decline or increase in unemployment. of course for the last couple weeks, folks, i've been talking a major conundrum for you, you've been watching. five the fed, wall street always says don't fight the fed, but there is a school that says don't fight the trend. that was the challenge for everyone, not just you, but professionals. turns out it was a hobson's choice after all. maybe we were not looking at this the right way. maybe it is the fed following the trend. meanwhile what can i say, folks. the pushback, naysayers going to nay. another way haters are going to hate. you will get a lot pushback on all of this. folks, don't even worry about it. i got to tell you something, if you're stuck between a rock and hard place, i saw this stock on
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stock charts. it essentially says one of the frustrating things for people who missed the first rally in a bull market is that they wait for the big correction, they wait, they wait. i seen this every time, particularly 2009. people are still waiting t never comes. the market just keeps climbing and climbing and climbing. this right here is a big challenge for anyone. anyone wants to make money in the stock market. here is the thing. it is not just the about emotions at the stock market running amuck. look at 10-year yield. the dollar. here is the dollar. it is coming down huge. 10 year-year-old huge. it is coming down huge. these are significanting suggesting maybe, maybe jay powell can pull off a soft landing. maturation of mark zuckerberg facebook ceo powering names. we're almost 4% on the nasdaq. s&p looks great. the dow being held back by some fundamental reasons. here's the thing, in the most
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recent bloomberg poll survey, thee are the experts, folks, 70% said the market hadn't bottomed yet. 30% were looking to cut equity exposure even more. so some major discussions are being had on wall street at this very moment. let's say my next guest he is sitting pretty. joining me now, bmo capital markets strategist, brian belski. look at the smile, radiant smile. brian, i want to ask, are you surprised jay powell came out sort of hinted thinkses pull off a soft landing. >> you had me at haters will hate. "mean girls," don't let hate stop you from doing your thing. the other poignant thing was is he chasing the market? chasing the market last year for sure because he was behind the eight ball with respect how fast the inflation was accelerating. doesn't surprise me he is talking about this. quite frankly, the data is not
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supporting any kind of a really deep recession. so two out of three things aren't happening. we already saw 20 plus percent pull back in the market, thanks, check. we have not seen a massive drawdown in earnings. my team is actually publishing a piece on this tonight. the last thing is the conundrum is the biggest question of all, what's going on with employment. we have all these jobs open. there is no way that in our view that we're going to see a spike in unemployment. that is why we drew a line in the sand in a recent report we said the october lows are absolutely the low. we're not going to down and retest. you cannot, should not be cute here trying to catch the bottom. charles: right. you shouldn't be cute trying to wait for a retest either. january 20th note you said we're in early stagers of the next bull market. when i read that, it was curious to me, does that mean the secular rally that you have always championed that that died somehow last year?
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>> no. you know this, in the '40s we had one, '60s, 82 to 2000. you can have big secular bull market in a down year or couple down years. that is what we saw last year. remember too we had a terrible fourth quarter in 2018. that made us have a negative year. we're still in a giant secular bull market. it favors quality. it favors north america. this too shall pass with respect to some volatility we've seen. i think we're heading into more normalized returns, more positive returns. any higher than average interest rate environment, of course higher than average. we've seen zero interest rates the last couple years. i think overall that is really good environment for stocks, charles. charles: before i let you go, your recommendations. i mean listen, beautiful, underweight staples. that was a brilliant move. underweight utilities, a brilliant move. i'm curious about health care. you had a big chunk in health care. it was overweight. a lot of bad news a lot of names are getting hammered there. would you take money out of
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reallocate it somewhere else particularly as interest rates come down and high beta makes its move? >> from a near-term basis no. i think the market is a little ahead of itself. we could see weakness later into february, march, that is where opportunities to redeploy capital back into industrials or back into select technology or even back into some energy. i think health care obviously has great growth potential. it is getting hurt today but continues to throw off great, great dividends. growth is getting hurt because value outperformed in the fourth quarter. i think it is taking on water and a short-term phenomenon. charles: congratulations, brian. we said haters are going to hate. crossmark global cio bob doll i considering a living legend on wall street. bob, you know, we've seen this before obviously but i can't remember what i have on the screen being so pronounced. i'll sharing the with the audience the winners and losers.
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laggards of last year are up almost on average 25% this is in february. the winners of 2022, let's call them about break even. this is a widest gulf i have ever seen. is there something to be made from this? does it make you rethink or even some people think it could be a red flag for this market? >> yeah. it has me concerned. i wish the leadership had more quality to it. yeah, if it did poorly last year, if it is high beta, if it's heavily shorted, if it doesn't eastern any money they are the stocks done best year-to-date, charles. it has been powerful, no question about it. but i'm not sure that is sustainable. it has to move back to what brian said higher quality. higher quality has been absolute wrong place year-to-date. we're fully invested but we have too many high quality stocks that have lagged so far this year. charles: in that same note you did point out headline inflation
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steadily decelerating, central bank slowing rate hikes and. but you did seem a little bit cautious on posting for, you know, like, in other words, what's the big worry now if indeed the fed is starting to be less of a concern? >> so i fall back on the classic leading economic indicators have rolled over. the yield curve is as negatively sloped as it has been in 40 years. earnings estimates keep coming down. money growth is negative year-over-year. these things usually matter and i'm not convinced they don't mather time. we're in this period of feels good. fed almost done. maybe inflation is coming down. i don't think it will get anywhere near 2% but i think that economic slowdown, earnings recession risk is still with us. charles: and when would you, some of these names, metas of
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world, apple is reporting, amazon, these are juggernauts. these six companies, more or less put the market on their backs, carried them for a decade. last year a lot of folks on the street completely wrote them off. what part, what role will they play in your portfolio? >> we're there but we're still underweight. there is still expensive relative to the market overall and our view is there are still some earnings risk there. so we want to be in the market but we want to respect the fact that those companies have p-e ratios that are six, eight, 10 times higher than the market overall. with them the market is back to 19 times earnings. without those six companies, the market is 14 or 15 times earnings, big difference. charles: i got less than a minute to go. your assessment halfway through earnings season, i find it fascinating so many companies missed on the top or bottom line but have been able to talk their way through the conference calls and the street seems to be
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forgiving. >> yeah in some sense certainly the street is forgiving in terms of what the stocks are doing but look at earnings estimates, charles? for the 23 s&p 500, last summer there were $252. today they're down to the high 220s and we think there might be risk to 200 if we get an economic slowdown. charles: well let's hope that doesn't happen. bob doll, like i said, a living legend, always appreciate you, thanks. >> better than a dead legend. charles: [laughter]. that is for sure. bring in capital ceo, a future living legend genevieve roch-decter. do you think jay powell can engineer a soft landings. particularly after nick timiraos asked him a question he got a little loosey-goosey, yeah i can do this? >> yeah, he was the most confident i've actually seen him. he is trying to engineer this soft landing on a rocky surface. it is murky, he is not seeing
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that much. what he is seeing though is that those consumer good prices are coming down. it is impacting the housing market which is really interest rate sensitive but where it is still not clear is unemployment. the unemployment rate is still at a record low. yes we've seen these headlines, layoffs across the tech sector, but it is just a drop in the bucket, right? and so i think until we see inflation rate at you know, 3 or 4%. i know they want to get to two. i don't think they will get there. the unemployment rate meaningfully going up, i'm saying just a little bit which is meaningful, i think they're going to keep increasing rates by 25 basis points. it is more of a measure, these are smaller, market likes it. i think he can pull it off, i actually do. >> a lot of ceos i just mentioned this to bob doll, you know these conference calls, they're always fantastic a chance for people to say mea culpa, this we'll get right when you missed. meta's call had to be
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phenomenal. a lot of people saying it was maturation of mark zuckerberg. you put up a great tweet talking about this as well. is this one of the keys? it is hard to be able to judge something like this when looking at income statement or balance sheet. there is no way to know other than if they start to show up and really prove there is someone you can be confident in. >> yeah. and i'm not. i sold all my meta stock a year ago. at 232 a share. look, last year was the first year in the company's entire history that revenue was down. why is the stock up? it's a relief rally. people are excited that they brought back free cash flow because if you look last quarter, free cash flow was only a couple hundred million. this quarterback up to five billion. not like the company will go bankrupt or anything. the problem is still costs. costs are still huge. they blew $13 billion last year on the metaverse. they have basically nothing to show for it except for a name change. until they cut costs that is what they said on the conference call, this is the year of
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efficiency. charles: right. >> let's see them because this quarter costs were up 20% quarter over quarter. i don't believe it and what i want to say even though if this become as the year of efficiency and they can get earnings per share back up i think the stock is fairly valued here. trading 18 times forward, 22 times lagging, and you know average five-year pe is 25 times. this isn't a growth story. charles: grd, i will put you down a maybe on meta, a maybe. you mentioned you've been somewhat skiddish, bearish, whatever you want to call it, you're not alone. stocks are poised to hit new lows this year according to a reaser h survey a week ago. 70% of market pap parents say the market is not ready to hit the bottom, the got. talking about pros, experts. are you experts? i'm contrarian, when i see so many people particularly professionals. i love to get in before them,
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when the market gets to a point where it is a buy they have a lot of money to push it higher? >> they have a horrible track record predicting these things. i'm with you, charles. i take the opposite side. i don't think we're in a new bull market. i don't think we're crashing or anything like. i see pretty good numbers, i'm tepid neutral cam. i think till with be a okay year. i'm still long the stock. charles: tepid, neutral. congratulations on lvmh. that stock has been a juggernaut. talk to you real soon. >> thanks, charles. charles: folks, fed chair powell is like hey, you know what? we can pull it off. it is a soft landing. i will ask sven hendrichs if he is a believer. he is at 2:30. fed president marry daley will join the show tomorrow. "making money" exclusive interview. you won't want to miss that. the ♪
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♪. charles: all right. so it's happening, right? lots of breakouts happening in this market after months, talking months of false hopes. a lot of time we hit the numbers and pull back down so what's the deal? once we break out, where do we go, how do we reassess risk? welcome to the chart school. my next guest ought of maximum trading gains, perfect combination of price, time, volume. alpha trend ceo, brian shannon. first of all congratulations on the book, brian. >> thank you, charles. it's a long labor, out, available on amazon. charles: i'm sure a lot of folks will get it. you're one of the best, particularly with the specialty. i don't have the exact charts that you use put we have charts you can help me out with if you can. start with the spy. obviously through the 200-day moving average a few days ago. it is looking really intriguing here. we broke the trend line. what would we be looking for? we talk so much about the breakouts, how do we assess or
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where the stocks indices will go once they break out? >> yeah, great point. i always ask myself where has the market come from? we had as you just mentioned one of the strongest starts to the year i think in 20 or 30 years. so we've had this big rally. where does it have the potential to go before likely endown 10ers supply? i think right in this area we're getting stretched of the so we don't want to chase things but if we can pull back from here to create another higher low. it looks really good. there are a lot of stocks set up really nicely for upside. charles: right. >> we have a healthy backdrop for individual stocks. charles: brian, say we go that. we pull back here. we hold above the other low, maybe above this path of resistance point. could we then say okay, start to really look like where we failed at the 200-day? start to look at stairstep in the other direction? >> i think so, charles. i mean we've reversed that pattern of lower highs and lower lows. we have the higher low from just
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last month. now we're making a higher high beyond the highs of two months ago. that means the pattern is now higher highs and higher lows. it is innocent until proven guilty. we have to always be aware of risk management t could fail but right now we're going to give the benefit of the doubt to the buyers. charles: nasdaq 100 is sizzling, absolutely sizzling. i look where this thing was, this is all within the last year. so it's still on the chart looks like it has a long way to go from 17, i mean, we've got three major components reporting. looking at this chart, would it give you confidence to hold into the close? >> no. not at all. in fact just the opposite. the momentum is clearly there. i'm definitely not going to get in front of it, try to short it but there is a couple of interesting things here on this chart. one, we're right up against anchored volume weighted average from the all-time high, right here, right now. we're also at a 38.2%
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retracement of the high in 2021, to the low last year. these things tie together here perfectly. that tells me we're at a level where potential supply could be released. so i want to be very defensive here. i'm going to hold stocks that i have a gadd position in and not try to bet on the market so much from here but i would really welcome a pullback in the ndx down towards about 12250 or so. that would create a nice higher low there. charles: i got to tell you something, over the last year people come to respect technical analysis a wheel lot more than they did in the past. if you have technical analysis, the work you do, brian, people would have saved money and made money when everybody else was getting crush crushed. congratulations on the book. i hope everybody reads it. >> strange out that works. charles: i will ask kenny
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polcari if there are alternative reasons why powell sort of pulled back a little bit. i want to get his new buys. first tracy shugart is with us discussing why did oil stocks haven't taken off? this was supposed to be the easiest trade of 2023. it has been the worse. i will ask sven hendrichs powell hinting at a soft landing, when the market is simply too complacent. we'll be right back. ♪ i was born on the south side of chicago. it has been a long road, but now i'm working for schwab. i love to help people understand the world through their lens and invest accordingly.
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- [announcer] payroll takes too long. at least it used to. now, there's roll, the app that makes payroll as easy as sending a text. you. you're slinging tacos and you've got a minute between orders to handle payroll. what do you do? step one, type 'run payroll', respond to a couple questions, and that's it... done! and they're paid tomorrow, not four days from now. if you know how to send a text, you know how to use roll. go to and get your first three months free and unlimited payroll. ♪. charles: so over the past five days energy is the only s&p 500 sector that's in the red. while i get it was a big winner
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last year, something seems wrong. joining me now, hill tower resource advisor ceo, chief market strategist, tracy shuchart. tracy, you know inventories are down, global inventories are down around the world, asian imports are at a one-year high yet crude stocks, they're just sort of spinning their wheels. what's going on here? >> well i think combination of about a lot of factors right now. even though we are seeing mobility data pick up in china i think that their crude imports were actually down in january, not surprising because they had an early new year. that said i think we'll need a couple more months of data to really see where we're at, get a clearer picture where china is at as far as demand is concerned. also we have those russian barrels still making it to market, highest exports in january. charles: right.
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>> brent's also is comfortably in the0, 90-dollar range which is suitable for opec right now, the apparent decision to hold this week. as far as the u.s. is concerned we've been seeing buildings which is not that unusual for this time of year. it is refinery maintenance season but i think people were expecting larger draws once that spr drain stopped. charles: to that point, you know, i just read a report, i think it was last week about production in this country, refined product, exxon mobility will be able to deliver 250,000 barrels a day. because of investments they made. the white house is going crazy because of these big buybacks. we know president biden the day he was elected oil took off because he declared war on fossil fuels. cot at some point the administration be hurting the industry, particularly as an investment? >> well absolutely they are. we talked about this several
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times. i mean their, permit something difficult. they declared war on you know, all the oil companies and said we want to phase you out. so it is no surprise that, you know we've seen all the majors report so far and mantra remains the same. they all said they intend to stay disciplined to deliver compelling shareholder returns rather than really invest. as they should. in addition they all got hit with a windfall tax from the eu, u.k. exxonmobil include a $1.3 billion hit in the fourth quarter earnings from the european union windfall tax. charles: right. >> so it is going to be hard to invest in europe when you're seeing those kind of taxes. charles: yeah. it is just, they're a basket case. i got less than a minute. but i have seen you commenting also on sort of wall street's overwhelmingly bearishness when it comes to the bond market. what do you make of that?
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what is the message there? i felt like bonds are probably a buy coming into this year. >> yeah. well i think, i mean, the market can always get more oversold. so i wouldn't say it is necessarily a buy signal but rather a signal if we start seeing inflows, particularly from pension funds that have a surplus of cash for the first time since 2008. we could see a massive short play, a massive short squeeze, rather. they have over a trillion dollars ready to deploy. >> yeah. i saw that chart. hey, got 30 seconds, are you buying anything right now in this market? >> metals, still metals. i really like metals. this is a year for the metals. we don't really see that hit until probably h-2. but base industrial, particularly battery metals. charles: all right. tracy, thanks a lot. appreciate it. congratulations on the new operation. >> thank you. charles: all right. folks, listen powell caught a lot of people flat-footed yesterday and it looks like he
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might be seeing the light that my next guest has been shining for a few months now. i want to bring in founder sven hendrich. you were openly worry that we talked about on the show that the fed would go too far. i shared the same sentiments. what are your thoughts now? >> hi, charles, good to be with you. i'm sensing maybe powell is a bit worried about this as well and actually frankly the only way i can explain him brushing aside the radical easing of financial conditions that we've seen since the october lows. i mean no hawkish talk has mattered. and as a result of falling yields and falling dollar and technicals that have been pressing for a breakout we now see this massive short-covering rally and push into some of these higher targets that we've had. i think what powell is trying to do is not assuage these easy
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financial conditions right now because the economic data is pretty dire. if you look at leading indicators, if you look, for example, ism new manufacturing orders they're basically all in recession territory where the fed would usually cut. he can't admit that of course. he couldn't admit to overtightening. he just says he doesn't want to overtighten and we're still seeing the lag effect filter through. the easing financial conditions, this market rally, along with the china reopening may help provide some runway to maybe delay a recession a little bit but make no mistake about it, these high rates are there and they're going to continue to filter through the economy. charles: you mentioned financial conditions there was a piece lael brainerd wrote a week ago, talked about the financial conditions over the last year, look at chicago financial conditions index. around september it hit a peak.
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it has begun to slope. i feel like this is a fed that was myopic, maybe too myopic when inflation was building. can we give them some credit for maybe stepping back, looking back or were they trying to find a way to be more accommodative under the tough circumstances that you describe? >> look, they had to slow down. i think the signaling process was there. remember we have the fastest rate hike cycle and highest debt construct ever and they had to catch up. inflation is obviously coming down the entire goal of the exercise, so fair play that is working. the challenge is not to overdo it and then produce a larger recession. charles: right. >> that is going to basically hurt everybody. that is the really narrow path they're walking and so note however if you now have really loose financial conditions, that actually goes totally counter to fighting inflation battle. charles: sure. let me jump in here, i have less than a minute to go and you made
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a point about the vix being too damn low with our old friend with the rent being too damn high. you posted fear and greed chart like 34 times. is the market getting too complacent and too did did i in your thoughts. >> we had massive break out, they're being squeezed and sentiment is incredibly bearish but these breakouts are technically meaningful however we're not only getting overbought as we approach 4200, especially around 4220, 4230, major confluence resistance and the vix actually today and yesterday hit its multiyear uptrend line and so there is a technical battle going on. i suspect we're probably set up at least for a short-term pull back in the last couple weeks or so. then we'll have to assess how the market handles the pull back.
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if it breakouts, it can reach even higher targets on the bullish side. or ultimately starts rolling over. we'll keep watching that macroeconomic data very closely. the reopening of china as a tailwind, vis-a-vis what is happening dedomestically on the tightening front as a result of rate hikes. >> i look forward to it. these things have to be tested. they have to pass these tests. i'm looking forward to it. thank you very much, appreciate it. >> thanks, charles. take care. charles: folks coming up after meta's monumental i won't say earnings but reaction to earnings everybody is setting up for maybe the possibility thinking it can happen. you have got three major companies reporting after the bell. we'll give you everything we know with beth kindig. she is one of the absolute best in this space at 2:50. the street is cheering powell's comments in this rally but was there a ulterior reason for thi? will will share with kenny
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polcari what the cynics are saying after the break. ♪ cole hauser is an award winning actor who has starred in good will hunting too fast, too furious and the current hit show yellowstone. beyond his impressive career, he is a proud supporter of the tunnel to towers foundation. i was able to spend some time with cole and his family to reflect on those who have sacrificed so much to defend our freedom. i know how much you care about america and our veterans and all the things.
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in the prolific permian basin with an attractive portfolio of oil, natural gas, and royalty assets. with expanding drilling operations and plans to uplist to the nyse, permex petroleum is poised for growth. ♪. charles: so chairman powell was dissing all over the place yesterday, and the market loved it. joining me slatestone wealth chief market strategist kenny polcari. kenny, yesterday the fed chair uttered the word disinflation 13 times. guess how many times he did it at the december meeting? zero. zero. >> zero. charles: he talk about it, he hit hard about this. the street was thrilled, because it feels like if nothing else he is seeing the data and acknowledging the data. what are your thoughts yesterday what you saw from the fed chair? >> i think that's right. if he didn't acknowledge the
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data everyone would say he was blind it. he had to acknowledge improving weakening however you define it. i thought that was fine. he also was very clear. while it is trending in the right direction we are not done. there are at least a couple of more rate hikes, plural. so that means march and may. i've been saying that with you for weeks now. and then i think the pause comes. but i think that is exactly what most, the majority of people have been thinking. so i wasn't really surprised except the algos once they hear disinflation 13 times they go boom, right. they ignite the place on fire. the reaction is dramatic the way you've seen it. charles: now there are some other theories floating around out there. some cynics didn't come to the rescue or see the light. they're trying to save the banks. one number they're pointing at. unrealized losses at bank portfolios. 350, 500, 650, $770 billion in unrealized losses. fed seeing, if anything else
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they came to rescue the banks. are you buying that? >> i'm not buying that. i mean i guess if you want to be kind of a conspiracy theorist that might make sense but i would like to think that is not the reason that the fed came to, jay powell came to the podium yesterday and made the commentary he did. it certainly can meaning to say that because it worked out really well. the market rallied strong yesterday. rallying today. a lot of bank portfolios changed in value. charles: he saved the banks. okay. >> right. charles: all right. >> i'm not buying that fact though. charles: let me throw something else at you. this october 12th low, if that's the low, say it is the low, that would be here, right? that would be the low point for the market. this is what typically happens. so the markets rallying and, that would be about three months into the rally here but one thing that is still happens is that earnings go down, you know, we have a lot of folks come on the show, i don't want to be long the market just yet.
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earnings will still go down. historically that has been the case. it hasn't stopped the market going up. how concerned are you about a earnings recession anchoring this rally. >> so i'm not necessarily so concerned, i think a lot of the, a lot of the write-down in the numbers, right, the expectation of this earnings recession has already been priced in. that is what i think investors are looking through the next quarter, into the second half of the year where they're going to see an improving overall economy and marketplace that we're not going into a deep, deep recession but we are going into one but maybe not as deep as they thought. charles: right. >> now that jay powell especially he is coming in recognized the data is starting to weaken. charles: right. >> i think they're buying positioning ahead of themselves. some is short-covering for sure and some is positioning themselves for the future. charles: by the way the same chart shows the earnings will turn back up later in the year, maybe accelerating the rally. >> right. charles: i got 30 seconds. did you change anything in the last week or so because of all these different events?
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>> i haven't. the only thing i'm looking at i'm looking where the weak spots there will be opportunity and that is aerospace and defense. i'm not buying apple, ibm those things are rocketing higher. i'm loving the ride. i'm not chasing that those names. but looking at names like raytheon, lockheed martin and general dynamics. they're lower in uptrending market. i'm big on defense this year. i don't think it is going away at all. i don't think we're cutting the defense budget by any reasonable number. i don't think that will be impacted. with russia still being china and what i think china and taiwan i think there will be real call. look at nato countries making deals with raytheon, lockheed martin to provide defense for them based on where they are, where their countries are in this world. i'm big on defense. on weakness i will be buying defense. charles: kenny, thanks a lot. you kicked a couple of my conspiracy theories to the cush but i love you anyway. coming up my takeaway of the white house not only picking
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winning and losers but they're creating them with your tax dollars. first star analyst beth kindig is with us. he talked about apple, amazon, alpha belt. and chatgpt where a.i. is going. you won't believe where she says it will be over the next five years. we'll be right back. ♪. if your business kept on employees through the pandemic, can see if it may qualify for a payroll tax refund of up to $26,000 per employee, even if it received ppp, and all it takes is eight minutes to get started. then we'll work with you to fill out your forms and submit the application; that easy. and if your business doesn't get paid, we don't get paid. has helped businesses like yours claim over $2 billion but it's only available for a limited time. go to, powered by innovation refunds. >> woman: why did we choose safelite?
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charles: all right, as we know meta is a rocket ship today. in a few moments investors hope the ride continues. the harsh reality just maybe that maybe won't be the case. so joining me now io fund lead technology analyst beth kindig. beth, great to see you, it has been too long. you posted this table i'm sharing with the audience right now, i really love it, time spent per day by u.s. adults on various social media platforms. ticktock is killing it but youtube is not far behind. here we have twitter, snapchat, facebook which is meta which is having a great day. today we had colorado senator bennet listen it is unacceptable for ticktock to be on apple or google. a lot of folks are trying to ban it.
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i'm curious if thicke tock is off the board here, who benefits? >> good to see you, charles, the tiktok ban closest product for young audiences will be snap an instagram. you make a good point about youtube. don't underestimate youtube. the youtube shorts are closest format to tiktok which is 50 or 60 second format. two billion users, global presence, youtube would be a strong contender. overall ticktock is a global phenomenon. the ripple effects in the united states being cut off would be yet to be seen. charles: i gotcha. so coming into the year a.i. is all the rage, right? jpmorgan saying there is a survey in the next three years it will be the most influential tech when it comes to trading the stock market. 53% a year ago. it is 25%. i read your notes, what it means for the economy, the impact is huge, tell us about it. >> it will be the best investment opportunity of your
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lifetime, my lifetime, our childrens lifetime. that is because of the gdp impact it will have. slated to be 15 trillion. put that into perspective that is three to four times higher gdp impact for mobile. mobile had 3 to 4 trillion. somewhere in there. that is hardware and applications. mobile brought us facebook which exploded when it became a native mobile app. google exploded when there was a computer in your pocket. apple clearly exploded with hardware around mobile. if you thought you missed out the on the fangs the good news there are bigger fangs coming. >> wow. >> maybe that is one silver lining tech out of favor, getting a.i. stocks cheap right now. charles: i have a minute to go. i want folks to see alphabet reporting after the close. recently it has been mixed, reaction to it has been mixed. amazon reporting after the close. apple reporting after the close. all of them had mixed results. all have inconsistent. jackie: results. what do you anticipate? is there one that you think will probably do better than the
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others? >> yeah. i would say first and foremost the market is primarily concerned with the bottom line. we saw that last night with meta i think the biggest take away the cutting of the costs. apple anda fa bet have higher free cash flow margins on larger revenues. so i would say those two are on the our watch list. of those i like alphabet the best. they have a huge product catalog 2024. privacy sandbox. it raises stakes on data collection allowing their own properties to be the most valuable. that is the nutshell. amazon, thin margins. we need to see a return to growth but between apple, alphabet we're most excited about those two, all i will say i don't own any. my goal is to get them cheaper. i think the consumer is just too weak right now. the fangs are very consumer exposed to expect this perfect landing the market is trying to convince us of. charles: beth, when you put out
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the 15 trillion buy list, because of a.i., please make sure you email me a copy? thanks a lot. >> you got it, charles. thank you. charles: we'll talk a lot more about innovation, technology, bitcoin. cathie wood, have not interviewed her since 2016. you don't want to miss this monday, 2:00 p.m. eastern. we'll be right back. ♪ but the things that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price, our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. inner voice: (kombucha brewer): when i started my new kombucha business... ... i thought there would be a lot more kombucha... ...and a lot less business. inner voice (graphic designer): as a new small business owner... ...i've learned that trying to be the “cool” boss... a lot harder when you're actually the “stressed” boss. inner voice (furniture maker): i know everything about my new furniture business. well, everything except... ...the whole “business” part.
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charles: surprise! once again a free money scheme designed to fundamentally change america is going to cost taxpayers a whole lot of money and, of course, the media thinks it's a good thing. it's not like the headline would suggest, a pleasant surprise that companies would line up for free taxpayer cash. by the way, the article does acknowledge tesla's going to get a billion dollars this year, ford $7 billion in tax breaks from '23-'26, and all that money is coming from the inflation reduction act. so that cost they told the cbo of 31 billion, it's going to be 136 billion and, yeah, it's going to add to inflation. well, that's what we get for progress, right, liz? liz: what's cocouple concern a couple hundred billion among friends? charles: at this point -- [laughter] liz: exactly. we kick off the final hour of trade. it's a met a the -- meta world, and tech stocks are just living in it. you are looking at a textbook


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