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tv   Making Money With Charles Payne  FOX Business  February 3, 2023 2:00pm-3:00pm EST

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lost covid weight and maybe some kept it on and it's 2023 and time to get moving. taylor: how is your pilates bike doing? your peloton bike? brian: both go in the category of never try it had or had one and a lot of pro athletes do pinapilates. taylor: great muscle strengthening. brian: maybe i'll try it. thanks for joining us on the big money show. tell us what you liked or didn't like and e-mail us at big taylor: think they'll let us back next week? brian: i hope they do and now it's time for making money with charles payne. starts now. charles: thank you, have a great weekend. i want you back too. i'm charles payne and this is making money. a title wave of news that to be
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honest should have sent this market into a deep dead. we're in the red and slightly so and major indexes at one point they all went back into the green. something is going on, folks, and i'm not talking about that surveillance balloon. it might have been too much really, might be too much, i think, to say okay, we've got to close higher. but i want you to watch the nuances of this market because what we're seeing right now is telling a major story. by the way, if it doesn't move higher, it might be those belyingerred and often written off micro-caps that lead the way. take a look at your screen, apple is up and other names holding good. here to unpack everything and there's a lot to unpack, lance roberts, lauren martin and more. san francisco fed president mary daily joining making money for exclusive interview on the fed's path forward and don't miss my take away on the day the earth stood still. all that and so much more on making money.
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charles: this reminds me of the old time ex-watches and -- timex watches and keeps ticking and mega names posting after the close and all have sloppy results and went lower after hours training and this jobs report, huge jobs report on the headline number. the knee jerk reaction was market and the stocks got slammed; right. then the market began to move a little bit higher and then we had another wave of news. global pmis popped bigger than expected and bam the market goes down. secretary of state blinken cancels china trip and that
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erupted much higher and market stumbles and regathers itself and here's my theory, folks, the federal reserve, their mangal is not to crush the jobs market but to curb wage growth and powell said it's the key and what he's focused on and 866,000 folks returning to the labor force and employers now have more wiggle room not to raise wages is the ism numbers and the price and pay component edged lower so forgetting about the headlines for a moment, all the details, you know, are starting to formulate this idea that maybe there could be a soft landing. maybe there could be no recession. of course the last part of the equation is the market itself, the way the market accounts and no doubt the same set of headlines three weeks ago and talking everything that i
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believe a soft landing could happen in the market. here's the problem, the experts have been sending this out. let's discuss what's happening and bring in ria and adviser cio lance roberts. lance, you've been in camp of inflation falling sharply and you're on record for that, but what about the notion of a soft landing or possibly no recession? >> looking to be more of the case and employment data and no signs of employers cutting back and the key number in that employment report today was the hour's work which if you're an economy that's slowing down, first thing that they do is [ technical problems ] so there's a lot of data starting to suggest that, you know, this economy may not be as weak as we expect. the big challenge is going to be whether or not all these rate hikes that the fed did is going to be too much or not. we won't know that for a few more months unfortunately. charles: yeah, at least jay powell talking about
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disinflation now. they realize that the lag effect is showing itself and to your point, maybe they've done too good of a job. you've put something, posted something i've appreciated and decomposition of the s&p 500 and 21% multiple expansion and 31% earning ands 7% dividends and almost 41% buy backs and some bisgivings about buy backs and we've had that conversation but don't companies need to have them to help shore up share prices particularly when there's a group of buyers around? >> yeah, look, this is always the question for companies, what's their best use of cash and in this economy, it's not going out and doing cap ex spending and more wages to hire employees and it's eating into their margins and what companies are doing is opting for the bess for the prices and stock buy backs and meta just the other day, $40 billion on a buy back and you'll see a lot more of
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that this year. we're in records and it goes higher. charles: on that note, retail investors 23% of volume, that's a new record even more than when the new investor revolution began. my question is where are the professionals? >> they're lacking. this will will be the big chale and they came in very underweight equity and this rally has taken a lot of pros by surprise, even us how strong it's been and really the immediate return speculated action by retail investors and bitcoin and micro-cap stocks and the ark funds have done exceptionally well. it's not going to be a race to catch up on that performance, which will potentially boost this market higher. charles: got less than a minute to go, mega caps, they reported this week. let's face it. they all laid eggs. miss on top, miss on bottom and miss on both. they held up and in fact some of
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them rallied pretty good. is this a good place to be a buyer of those names because still wall street saying stay away. system of articulation stocks aren't dead and there's a reason because they provide a lot of liquidity and professional managers need to invest in the markets, that's where they go. passive investing, 30-cents of every dollar into the big mega cap companies and three, when you look at where money will be allocated and into the future, where money will be flowing to and it'll be the big companies and there's a lot of reasons why you want to own the companies and they're overbought right now, wait for a bit of a pullback and you'll get it probably this month or next month but, yeah, definitely be a buy tore add to the positions. charles: lance, have a great weekend, my friend. appreciate it.
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>> as always. charles: one of the reasons for today's resolve and lance talked about t these megacap name techs and communication services. they were really supposed to be down a lot more than the pressure we're seeing. i want to bring in senior media internet analyst laura martin. you're one of the best and lucky to have you today. i want to go through some of the napes with you. begin -- names with you. begin with google. i saw your target was only 115. doesn't sound like a resounding buy but does google have a product problem? i don't know if that was rhetorical enough but do they have a problem? >> we're going to go with yes. a lot of their talk was about ai and how they started writing white papers on artificial intelligence in 2017. yet the first time we saw product was chatgpt, which is a competitor. they talk about shopable ads trying to play catchup with amazon. they talk about tiktok and what they call shorts, which is trying to keep up with tiktok. throughout their sort of conversation yesterday, every
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product they're mentioning is really playing catchup with someone else's product and the last thing they invented fist was search and that was 15 years ago so i think they have a product problem. charles: they better catch up, that's all i can tell you. apple, i don't know that they have a product problem. lot of their products missed yesterday but here's the thing, the stock is up, tim cook said, listen, they're getting past all the hiccups in china and this is one of the things where he's got so much gravitas with wall street and investors he gets the benefit of the doubt. >> you know, it's not a tim cook thing but an apple thing and hit stalled base of 2 billion and they're doing a really excellent job of driving higher revenue per installed-based clients and services up 6% to 20 billion. they had 935 million subscribers, and to your point china was in lockdown till mid november and they did say that china started to see new demand for iphones in december and january.
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that's a hidden source of potential demand that's really been locked up still a year after us. i think it's a apple business model and free cash flow here is enormous. they're buying shares $23 billion and a share reigns leading purchases and dividends in the 90 days and it's a business model excellence not so much a tim cook personnel. charles: at least they didn't mess it up; right. back in october you chimed at mark zuckerberg and it was a conference call he didn't give us much. this week a lot of folks are saying they saw a more mature leader step up to the microphone, do you agree? >> i do not. so we have an underperform here. the stock was up 25% in our face yesterday and we were wrong on this one. however, i would say what i would like to see here is the communication policy is great. he's talking about the year of efficiency. however the actions here are he also says at the same time that he's going to spend $6 billion of cap x and higher losses on
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meta verse so $25 billion and those payoff in 2030. so i don't see his actions actually meeting, you know, being consist with his words. so let's see. i think another couple quarters and we'll see. charles: at least he got the script down. another stock that you -- you're sort of anti for lack of better word netflix and that's taken off like a rocket. do you think -- what do you think? when you have a stock that you don't have a favorable rating on it and takes off like this, when you look at t what do you think you might be missing, if anything? >> i think our issues with netflix are much more about understood wantals and about their -- fundamentals and decision making paradigms and they're doing an ad-driven tier and market is not focusing on what that will do to arpo and we don't like they're going to disconnect our kids in college and force us to make a decision about -- make us angry because suddenly we're paying a $20 tier
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and they're going to make us go down to a $9 tier and make our kids have a different $9 tier and they're gonna get paid $20 but they're going to force us to take action. i do not think that's the right way to raise price. i don't like their price increase forum this year. charles: my son wore me out with the grub hub account in college. no mas. i'm with you on that one. thank you so much, you're fantastic. talk again soon. see ya. folks, i want to bring in ceo, cio silvia diblanski and said i anticipate investors will sit on the sidelines till we get past this week till there's comfort that the biggest names have held on. you were spot on. what happens next? >> good afternoon. i think what happens next is we get through today and sort of have a reset next week and i think there's gonna be a bit of look through in terms of the tech companies so all though as you mentioned before, they did
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kind of deliver goose egg. i think we're sort of looking out beyond that and thinking about china reopening and the idea that it doesn't look like we'll have a massive recession and people are likely to go back and spend in the spaces so i think a fed coming out hawkish and even gasp a bit doveish and tech that's not absolutely terrible and holding up will lead investors to come back into the market is my suspicious. charles: you specialize in futuristic, thematic investing and ai is all the rage now. is the hyperbole that it's deserved? >> it is and it's actually been all the rage before, but i think the microsoft investment and talk about chatgpt sort of writing term papers and passing medical exams got people excited and it's meant to mimic the way we learn and the knowledge we have as human beings and allows us to interact with it in day-to-day life. if you think about things like
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self-driving cars, surgical robots, smart cities. all of this depends on ai, and i think that microsoft going into the space, google now talking about it is just really the way of the future to where we're going to see their pennys spent. charles: yeah, people are excited about it till they learn might take their job and then they're like huh? i know you like the semiconduconductors here; right? >> yeah, i like the semiconductors and back to open ai. if you think about what powers that, you know, you usually need speed and low latency and things like 5g and computers to process information super quickly so that machine learning can happen. all of this is required to run with semiconductors so companies like nvidia and amd are really gonna be on the forefront of this, particularly nvidia. the topographics, chip producer in the industry so i think that they knocked off their pedestals last year and what a bargain to get into thinking about and see
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ai playing out in the next three to five years. charles: 30 seconds to go and getting even more pumped and you've been pumped about hydro and i'm reading more recently some of the things you're talking about. what's moving the needle and bringing it closer to like living up to its potential? >> yeah, so it's become more cost efficient, it's become more widely used and now you have some stats out there that within the next 5 to 10 years 12% of electricity will come from hydrogen up from zero. all the big banks, goldman bank of america predicting a multitrillion market in the next decade or so and all trying to save the earth. we need our gas and oil but we need other solutions and alternative energy, clean energy really bodes well for hydro-general and tail wind from inflation reduction act and sort of the global commitment to carbon neutral. charles: i don't how much they set aside for hydro and went from $30 billion to $140 billion with the tax credits on evs, which i would refer them to get a more elegant solution and hydro is a much more elegant
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solution. i have to let you go but you're etf. hydro etf. what's the symbol? >> it's hydro, h-d-r-o, pretty easy to remember. charles: even for someone like me. have a great weekend. coming up, folks, i can't wait for this. exclusive entire view with san francisco -- interview with san francisco fed president mary daily on her thoughts on what powell did and did she back him up? is she in the soft landing camp? where we go from the jobs report and we'll pick up from the jobs report coming in better than expected. my next guest sounding the alarms about wages maybe being a source of inflation. anastasia amarosa is next to break it all down. ♪
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charles: any next guest is worried the wages are the sticky inflakes that keeps -- inflation
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that keeps jay powell up at night. my next guest anastasia amaro. what is your row action to the is were rendition of anthony action and think the market would be up more if we had a number like this a month ago. >> i'm not surprised to see the market really try to find its footing here and trying to phygoyuri colins out which way to -- f figure out which way to react and that's what we got with the payrolls report and what i mean is if you look at pace of job creation say maybe this is a soft landing report that we were looking for. we've got jobs, which by the way we want jobs and people to be gainfully emp employed and at te same time there's wage pressure abating. the other way to interpret that is the fed says the job market
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is so solid we should expect to see meaningful wage inflation in the months and quarters ahead and therefore we may need to do more. i worry that while the durable goods inflation is now actually in disinflation territory, it's the wage pressure that's still at 4% double what the fed would like it to be and that's what keeps fed being more hawkish than the markets expect. charles: speaking of the market trying to get the footing, feels like we're at a cross roads right now and come out the gate at a blistering pace and, you know, everyone's sort of looking at a pullback and only would be natural and my l resistance number is 41/90 and tickle that and maybe pull back and looking for that and you're looking for a pullback as well? >> i'm looking for some near term consolidation. charles, you're right, we're up 15% on the nasdaq year to date and look at technology for example, relative to the s&p, it's the most overbought level since november of 2021.
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we've sort of priced in a lot here near term and that's why i look for a consolidation. having said that, there's a lot of silver linings and speaking of technicals, the fact we're above the average, 100 and 200 day moving average that keeps systematic investors more engaged than who you would have otherwise and yes, just given how much we have rallied in the short period of time, i think it would be natural to have some consolidation here. charles: let me ask you, i mean, one of the things i think the market is look at, i don't know how much it's impacting it. blinken, secretary of state blinken announced canceling the trip to china because of the sursurveillance balloon and it s a week ago we general saying we could be at china. how much do these factors impact your modeling market? >> we have to think about geopolitics and three ways in which i'd think about that.
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first of all, we can't invest in hypotheticals and, yes, there's a variety of hypotheticals and gee jowski political scenarios that could play out but can't give asset allocation waiting for something to happen and maybe it does and maybe it doesn't much that's the first thing. the second thing, take for example russia's war in ukraine and it is unacceptable and if you look at the market, many of the things that got dislocated early in the conflict have now completely round tripped. take a look at european natural gas for example. take a look at u.s. natural gas and the markets orb even the performance of some of the russian assets so a lot of the times the knee jerk reaction that you have initially on why and that's yet another reason why we can't just invest on geopolitics. here's what i would say, charles, if you were a tactical investor or a hedge fund, somebody that gets paid to make
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the tactical moves, pay close attention to geopolitics and be an expert in some of the things and we've been told for weeks there's likely an invasion that's brewing and -- into ukraine and a lot of people have dismissed that. a lot of money was lost as a result of that. charles: yeah. you've always been one of my favorites. thanks so much for coming on. hope we can get you back on soon. have a great weekend, anastasia. >> thank you, charles, charles: coming up, as january goes, so goes the year. does that mean smooth sailing from here on out. one of the best historians ryan ddee struck is here and first an exclusive interview with san francisco fed president mary daily. does she admit maybe there's a soft landing coming. that's right after this. ♪
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charles: right to edwards lawrence that kicks often the exclusive interview with federal reserve bank of san francisco president mary dallas cowboysy. edward. >> thank you, charles. san francisco fed president mary dallas cowboysy. thank you first for being here but i want to jump into this right away. does this solidify we'll need another 25-basis point hike in march? >> first, thank you for having me and today the number on the jobs report was a wow number but the trend was not surprising. we knew that the labor market was strong and has been strong despite the fact that the economy overall has been slowing. so right now i see december sep we had in our last meeting for 2022 is being a good inday kay torr of where policy --
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indicator of where policy is heading and i'm prepared to do more if more is needed. >> that was 5.1% and indicate two more rate hikes this year and are you looking for a pause mid year? >> you know, it's really too early to talk about even what we'll do meeting by meeting. this was one report and many data points coming in before the next time we get together, and i think that right now the most important thing to convey to listeners is the direction of policy is additional tightening and holding the restrictive stance for some time but how we get there, the tactics and meeting by meeting decisions really have to be data dependent and that's what prudent and optimal policy means. >> how long do we need to see the elevated rates in order for you to say, okay, inflation, we've conquered inflation? >> well, really depends on inflation. right now my outlook for inflation is for it to continue to come down, but if you think about getting to 2%, that's likely to take longer than just
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this next year. so we really will have to be in a restrictive stance policy till we truly understand and believe that inflation will come back down to the 2% target. that's what americans are depending on and what the fed is united in resolute in providing. >> so in your mind, inflation has peaked. how about core inflation? the federal reserve chairman was concerned about core inflation moving sideways. do you think both of those have peaked? >> i think it's far too early to declare victory and even think about peaking. we're in the early stages. you see the data in many sectors is volatile. we have china reopening. we just have to be thoughtful and look at the data and information and be cautious about declaring a victory or a peak earlier than we've seen real evidence that we're there yet. so my mind is 100% on bringing inflation back down to 2% over time. right now i see some positive signs but far from a victory.
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>> yeah, one last topic and charles is itching to get in here too. we're seeing layoffs in the tech sector now and they're seeping, it seems, into other sectors and some retail layoffs. are you concerned now that these layoffs are going to become more widespread? >> you know, there are -- you have seen high profile announcements of layoffs as firms rebalance to bring their payrolls back in line with activities but what i'm see asking a strong labor market. just a really strong labor market not just in the number of jobs being created but across a wide range of indicators and dash board we look at and to me that tells me that the economic is absorbing these rebalancings and continuing to be resilient and the number one surprise coming out of the pandemic, i think, to everyone has been the resiliency of the american economy. people want to be out there and want to invest in their business and want to work. we're seeing that pay off in the kinds of things that we saw today. >> mary, stay right there.
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charles, i know you're itching to get in there about this. what do you see? charles: yeah, i just want to -- you've covered the more immediate things. president daly, i was -- that speech that chair powell gave in stokstockholm was fascinated and where he gave and why the federal reserve is sticking to its knitting. what i'm wondering, could the fed under a different chairperson change their goals, change their mandates so-to-speak because there was a time, and i felt maybe you and others, were pushing for more of an active role. we look at beige book now and hear from certain areas that what the community is thinking, could the fedex up and down its role and have more of a social activist kind of role in the future? >> oh, not at all. i mean, i am completely aligned with chair powell's remarks and i've given speeches saying similar things. you know, i think that it's easy
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sometimes to maybe -- this is why our responsibility is to explain. it can be easy to misunderstand when we say we're going to study the distributional impacts of our policy to think that we're in a different space that we should be. but our work always comes back down to the core responsibilities that congress gave us. stable, sound, financial system, stable dependable payment system, and the dual mandate goals of price stability and full employment. literally everything we do is aligned on that and that's been true since 1913 when we were formed, including community perspectives in our beige book is really about recognizing that every american should have some voice to officials who are doing things. our work is for the american people and we want to make sure that we understand how workers are feeling when inflation is high. how people in communities are feeling when inflation is high because that's as important as understanding how businesses feel so i get out regularly to the nine states in my district
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and i talk to as many people as possible for just that reason. i see that as our job. charles: your dual mandate seems to be clashing because in order to bring inflation down, unemployment or jobs market has to deteriorate somewhat. should they -- should there just be one mandate like other central banks around the country? because while inflation hurts everyone and chair powell goes out of his way before the foc q and a to wrap it up and say we know inflation is hurting you but losing a job hurts too. >> absolutely and that's why we've been determined. i work every day to make this transition to lower inflation as smooth as possible. so that people have two things simultaneously: a dependable price level, low and stable prices, and a job. those are the goals -- i don't think of them as in tradeoff or conflict but supporting what everybody wants, which is stable employment, good earnings, and the idea that you can go to the
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store each month and not afford less than you afforded the month before. it's complimentary not conflict. charles: president mary daly, fantastic and we appreciate it. edward, great stuff. we have to leave it there but we appreciate you coming on fox business and thank you so much. those are great answers. i learn add lot. >> thank you so much. really appreciate the time. charles: thank you. >> appreciate the time. charles: i want to bring in now dana petersen, the chief economist at economy, strategy and finance conference board. dana, you had a chance to listen to some of the conversation. i just think the dual mandate is somewhat conflicted in my mind. you know, every fed person says that unemployment rate would be higher. albeit they believe this time around there'll be less of a percentage increase than the past rate hiking cycles but nevertheless what is challenging for this federal reserve? >> well, the challenge at play really is still inflation. you don't want inflation getting
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out of control and inflation expectations rising above normal levels. once people think that prices are always going to be higher, they're going to delay their spending hoping that price wills go down. that damages the economy. also we need to think about folks, especially people making less than $15,000 a year, they're really hurt by the fact that cost for food, energy, shelter are all rising. so it really does behoove the fed to bring down inflation. in terms of the labor market and unemployment rate rising, the unemployment rate at 3.5 -- or 3.4% is extremely low and it's below the -- 4.5% is the natural rate of unemployment that doesn't create inflation. i wouldn't want to be the person to lose my rate, the unemployment rate going from 3.4 to 4.5 is still not so bad. that's still really a low unemployment rate. most people would still be working, and unfortunately
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there's some pain but the greater pain is high inflation. charles: well, let's talk about the pain then because the work at the conference board, which the fed holds in high regard, leading economic indicators, consumer confidence and all these things point to recession. what do you make now of the conversation, the growing loud of course of folks saying maybe soft landing? >> i mean, i'm certainly sympathetic to the soft landing argument. really our forecast is for the recession to be starting right about now. we don't really have much data. all we have really are payrolls and back ward looking. yes, they were really strong but that's also what we know about the labor market. you have labor shortage and a lot of churn into industries and finish higher and that's where we saw a lot of strength and even in construction, you still have jobs that need to be finished and you have a lot of infrastructure at the state and local and also federal government level coming through. so i don't think that, you know, this is all in congruent.
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the big difference now is labor shortages compared to prior recessions and we could have weakness in terms of gdp growth rates. charles: dana, we got to keep it short because of the exclusive interview but i appreciate having you as a follow-apogees to that. thank you to much. thank you very much. >> thank you. charles: all right, folks, we'll be right back. ♪
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♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ you ok, man? the internet is telling me a million different ways i should be trading. look! what's up my trade dogs?
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you should be listening to me. you want to be rich like me? you want to trust me on this one. [inaudible] wow! yeah! it's time to take control of your investing education. cut through the noise with best-in-class education resources that match your preferred style of learning. learn your way. not theirs. td ameritrade. where smart investors get smarter℠. charles: so my next guest something really unusual. he listens to the market rather than dictating to the market. i got to tell you, served him and his clients well in the 20 years i've known him. president of capital management managementgary. what is it the market in your mind, what does it want to do now and the message at this moment you're getting? >> well, january 6 was liftoff.
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i think we've had a tremendous run in software and tech and things like that and probably hit a bit of a wall here because looks like rates probably have bottomed near term because of this report as well as the dollar. but the other part of the equation, you know, all this talk about recession, formants ago i would have been real worried but in the last couple months, you have housing stocks at new yearly highs and european highs and never seen deep recessions or bad recessions when these areas are doing well and i'm sure the market is a lot smarter than all of us including myself so i think we're in good stead right here. you know i worry long term with debt and deficit interfering but right now i think we're okay. charles: you said a long time ago the fed lost control and watching dollar and buy yields. what are they telling you right now and they've come down a lot and key support points and overall they've come down a lot.
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>> 4.3 and change down to 3.5. that is a huge drop in the cost of capital for everyone as well as businesses, and i think that's what's done the trick and it's kept the dollar weaker that helps our multinationals and the direct correlation with higher markets so that's been the story. you know, as we move forward, you had the fed on all this talk, i'm really hoping they don't do what they did the other way where they went too much printing, zero rates. if they go too far to the upside while interest rates, the real market is staying down, that's when they were going to have some trouble for the market going forward so hopefully they take a vacation, maybe raise one more time and then shush for a few months and let things be but they like doing thing sos see how that goes. charles: you mentioned tesla into the earning ands it's been a grand slam. what are you looking at now? what's on your watch list?
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>> well, the whole software complex, and we own the igb and i think we're up about 10% on it. pullbacks. we think the whole software complex is turning the warner, which means you had a bear market, stair step to the downside and they bottom and now stair steps to the upside, but i think they've gone too far, too fast so i'm looking at that who complex and 50 to 100 names with rates maybe going higher, i love the action of american express and jp morgan. in the boring area and then i own -- i bought tesla after earnings and i want to own a ton more of the stock if it continues like this. any pullbacks i'll add to something like that and lastly some of these big cap tech earnings where the earnings are not very good and the market loves them and i'll be paying attention to that and we'll see how they work on pullbacks yet
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but right now it's pullback time charles: i got to tell you, people making money and big spurts missed out. i think they'll also be trying to get their way in on the pullbacks as well. gary, thanks a lot. always appreciate you and learn something every single time, my man. have a great weekend. >> take care. charles: all right, we'll be right back. ♪
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one, 1961 the monkeys, i'm a believer. that's the best way to describe the soft wagon landing. chief market strategist ryan deet rick. ryan, are you getting worried that maybe too many people are jumping on the band wagon? >> no, charles, tgif and welcome aboard, everybody. i've been on for awhile saying the economy will likely avoid a recession. talk about today; rights. over 500,000 jobs created yet wages continue to trend lower what the fed wants to see. oh, by the way, highest in services that makes up a huge part, services makes up a huge part of the economy, way better than expected and listeners need
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to know it equated to about a 3% gdp growth and way better than recession everybody said was coming and the truth, the economy looks good and that's probably good for stocks, charles. charles: let's talk about what it means for stocks exactly. i mean, it's good for stocks, all stocks, some stocks and why? >> yeah, great question there. it's probably good for more of the prosify cals and small caps and things leading. tech bounce add lot here and see more neutral weight on technology and we look back and all the bear markets in history, one year off the lows, s&p up about 40% on average, up almost 70% two years later and we're up 17% from the october lows. if you think there's no recession and october was the low like i've been telling you for awhile. let's be open to the idea there could be pretty significant gains to come in the non-recession natural rights approach bull market. charles: we just had mary daly on, san francisco fed path and made a lot of news and one thing that sticks scout something we'll have to live with, maybe there'll be a pause but it's
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going to be at a low, 5, 5 5.25. with that looming over the markets, does that change the equation at all in >> we don't think so. just that shift. our case too, we never saw a cut coming later this year, charles. there's probably one more high and we'll leave it there for awhile. they know the play book of the 70s raise and cut, raise and cut and they'll leave rates higher for awhile but just the fact they stop increasing it and look what yields have done. they've come back and bond market saying we're not buying it, fed. you're about done here. that's the play book. charles: you're an amazing market historian and i got one for you. the next test. we pass the santa claus rally, we leapfrogged over the january effect, is the next big test maybe alien spaceships designed like chinese surveillance balloons? >> oh, boy. i hope not. i don't think it's that one. i think the other question of will the fed accept the fact that inflation is coming down faster than most people expected and they're going to be stubborn? we don't think they will and they'll follow the data, but
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that's the one thing we're watching. economy is strong and earnings is here and that's our. we want to do it prematurely and after the whole transitory and we did it. we did it. we did it. i like how you skirted my spaceship question but i'll get you next time. >> i look forward to it. see you, charles. thanks. charles: great guests, on monday, ark invest ceo cathy woods going to join me for an interview and we have the talk in about five years. she's had a little success since then. next, my take away on the day the earth stood still. ♪
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charles: so, you know, of all the intriguing things that have happened this week particularly in the stock market, outside of the market, that balloon floating above the montana skies and now moving? that stands out. and just about every ail end yen movie begins with a spaceship or a bunch of them floating in the sky sometimes disguised as a cloud or something like that, so maybe disguised as a chinese surveillance balloon? it's not farfetched. i do have to commit, i think that'd be cool. hear me out for a moment. one of my favorite sci-fi
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movies, the day the earth stood still. no, not the keane knew reeves version -- keanu reeves version. remember they stopped all the machines in a show of force and commanded that humankind learn to get along, or the next visit would be a real hostile visit. but then there's that twilight zone episode where those powerful aliens come down, and they present us with a book called to serve man, and they get rid of all diseases, all wars, and life is beautiful. we're going to the their planet, but then we find out that the book was a cookbook. the point is maybe as we stare at this balloon hovering in the skies, we can start to contemplate other things like how to make better for ourselves, for each other. just a thought. liz claman, you know it's friday when i start the talking like this. liz: i'm, like, rodder isling, actually, charles, we've got some breaking news on that and stocks that are moving in the relation to it. we've got chinese stocks heading deeper


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