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tv   Making Money With Charles Payne  FOX Business  February 6, 2023 2:00pm-3:00pm EST

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jackie: it is spent. essentially it is spent. brian: they doesn't know it was fraudulent. nobody asked tough questions about this guy. they took the money, assumed he was expert. jackie: it was fraudulent and they knew he was writing checks and -- brian: scratch the surface a little bit on that. taylor: to work. jackie: we could leave it there, brian, i know we could. thanks for joining us for "the big money show." tell us what you look or didn't like. email us at follow us at "the big money show." always great to see two of you to kick off a monday like this. we'll send it over to our pal charles payne now, making money. >> see you on the big money crew a little later. i'm charms pain. this is "making money". markets are in the red. it will probably move sideways, consolidation before the next leg higher or start of a big
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pullback. oddly wall street is rooting for the latter, in part face it they missed the big move to the upside. also in part because retail investors didn't miss the move. reading tea leaves without emotions or with them, emotional bias is tougher than ever. we have on deck, ali among cart any on the paradoxes of this market. jon that areaian on follow up on the apple grand slam. i hope you did that. he has the latest options trade. cathie wood will join me in a can't miss interview. her basis why ark is the new nasdaq. slings and arrows she is dealing with. president biden giving state of union address with escalating tensions with china. michelle schneid, on geopolitical risk to your portfolio. my takeaway president biden inadvert antly midding that american households are living
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on borrowed economic time. all that and much more on on "making money." ♪. charles: today's session has anti-climatic feeling to it. last week was crazy. we had all the earning from megacap companies, jobs report, fomc gathering. meanwhile there is a tug-of-war between the retail investor who bought this market to brought it big and professionals who have been on the sidelines and say what you will about so-called dumb money, folks take a look at this, these are the stocks that did worse last year and done best this year. worse last year, best this year. tesla up 60%. nvidia is killing it. amazon is killing it. names did well last year are naturally doing very poorly this year. so you know, here's the thing, this is mostly short squeezes and other things but the bottom line it is working out very, very well. meanwhile the retail investor even though they're up big this year, they're not looking to cash in. in fact on the contrary.
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23% of all volume that is even higher at the greatest point when the whole new investor revolution began if the first place. retail is in there the bottom line. the big question when can we get the other end of the spectrum? here's the thing earlier we had top equity strategist, guy at goldman sachs saying there will be a soft landing. so more people r coming into that camp but he is talking about above trend growth. he says it is already priced into the equity markets. david con san raised s&p target from 4,000 to 3600. it seems like sour grapes, maybe he admitting that the worst case scenario is over. a lot to hash out. ubs private wealth management managing director, alli mccarthy. i have to start with your notes. you said paradoxical point of view. you have the market on one hand, earnings on the other. what are conflicting messages here? >> there are definitely conflicting messages here. we have a market at 4150.
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at 4150 our models tell us that says there is about 10% chance of recession or said another way, a 90% chance of a soft landing. okay? what market is telling you, soft landing? >> internals the market is telling me everything you just discussed. >> right. >> to bake into that cathie wood being your next guest, her portfolio is up 42% year-to-date. that paints one picture of the market which we go earnings season solidly in. couple things happened, 66% of companies have beat. that is relative to the average historically of 75%. charles: very, very low. >> i mean we're talking about parsing numbers and also financial crisis. charles: also this earnings recession will keep going, right? they're still moving lower, right, earnings? >> earnings as we talked about on previous shows have been sort of all over the place. we saw meta before they announced of the you could drive a truck through that.
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what is happening ceos, companies are guiding lower 2% quarter over quarter and year-over-year, so the numbers from analysts, from wall streeters, finally starting to come in at about a 4% year-over-year miss. charles: all right so that is the paradox. stocks saying one thing, earnings saying another thing and then there is the federal reserve. look at the swaps market. these are the global central banks. all expected in next six months, gold yellow line to hike rates. six months after that they're expected to cut rates. federal reserve looks like a wash before the year is over. if we kind of know that, if this is sort of being built in the market how do you approach a market where you may have two 25 basis point hikes we may finish with a rate cut unless you're not in that camp? >> depend own your time horizon. retail investors largely benefited from this rally which is true. they can take the profits pay
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taxes try to find the next good point to stay in. most people will be fully invested, second half and 2025, this may be a decent time to invest as long as you stay high quality, but we also -- charles: high quality ain't working. you said at some point it will? >> right now the story is. a, technical and b, that the macro economy will be great, no recession at all. so we're just pricing in you know super happy rainbows and unicorns. if we don't get there, right, if we have, we have a jobs number that just took our unemployment down to 3.4 -- charles: right. >> we have earnings that are prognosticating a not so pleasant perspective and we have market technicals that don't seem that great either. charles: real quick, less than 30 seconds, we'll stretch it though, talk about paradoxes. earnings estimates are coming down, you mentioned that. these are target for companies, s&p companies, zooming higher. almost every day looking at companies by the way just missed
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on earnings, just gave downside guidance and firm affirm saying we'll have a higher target. could that be because we knew this already and make the market got oversold? charles: i think there are two potentialities. one exactly what you said, we're looking through earnings recession to really the future. the second is, that we talked about disinflation last week. that goods and inputs are coming down but that companies, meta becomes a good one to talk about, are learning how to control cost. charles: right. >> starting to expand margins, that could be helpful long term. so all of this to me is the difference between, are you trading for next week, are you trading for six months from now or are you building a portfolio to get you to retirement in five, 10, 20 years. >> sounds great. ali, thank you so much. appreciate you. >> thank you. charles: bring in sarah ponzcak. you see resession deeping with the conversation we had. market as they come out of bear
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markets ironically enough, markets going higher and earnings typically going lower. could that play out again this time? >> it absolutely could. alli did a nice job laying out earning picture i will lay out one statistic. earnings per share are on track to decline 3.4%. you're right the stock market is a forward-looking indicator. typically look at history we often time see stocks climb higher, head higher before you see a trough in one economic activity and two, a trough in earnings. so it is very likely that we could see stocks head higher before we see that trough. charles: right. >> but i will say is, we're just now starting to see earnings head lower. so we are nowhere near that trough. charles: right. >> we're still towards the beginning of the legs into this earnings session social. that doesn't mean we won't see stocks move higher before we see the end to this game but we're still a long ways from there. we're probably going to continue to see some volatility. charles: one thing we didn't
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talk about last time you really wanted to point out, overall, investtores should taking solace in the long view, particularly after the past year we just had. lay that out for us. >> well i really appreciate you bringing it up because, a lot of times people don't think this way. part of it comes down to the fact last year was just so unique. these numbers are really stark to me. because if you look at rolling 12 month returns since 1926, how often have we seen stocks and bonds both decline together? you know, last year was a really, really painful year for 60/40 investors because that is so abnormal. that number is only 2% of the time. it is extremely, extremely rare. so then the question becomes, all right, what typically happened next? if you look over the next 12 months, this is a feel good number. 81% of the time 60/40 portfolios ad positive returns. that return statistics was plus 12% on average.
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if history has any bearing, have the patience, wherewithal, the well-being to look further out, yes the next couple months might be a bit hairy, might be a bit difficult but there is reason to be optimistic. charles: picking up on that, i'm told that you still previous, i'm sorry bond as little more than stocks. so we've got the yields, you know, sort of going up back up a little it about with government bonds. corporate bonds, for the first time in a long time, are actually yielding on average less than corporate, than government bonds. does it make a difference with which one you prefer? would you go into corporates? would you stick with treasurys? >> it's a good question. at this point in time we still like hybrid corporates in addition to treasurys. you know the yields right now that you can get on short-term treasurys are immensely attractive. look at six month treasury bills yielding 4.9, 4.9%. you haven't seen that in a really, really long time.
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be careful while cash rates right now are extremely attractive you want to be careful about just buying all short dated treasuries. you you still want to be building out a portfolio. charles: right. >> buy short dated treasurys, time goes on, yields come down later this year or next year even, you will be facing reinvestment risk. charles: i think a lot of folks have knee-jerked, loaded up on the short-dated treasuries. i believe the big play, real play is longer term for those so inclined. sarah, thank you very much, appreciate it. >> thanks for having me. charles: folks, stocks and bonds are obviously great investment options options themselves, the options market, it has been sizzling. last week we saw a record number of call options. here's one of the reasons why. buying calls on earnings has yielded 29% in this quarter, folks, 29%! i'm going to bring in market
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rebellion cofounder jon najarian. tell us about the last trade you gave us, apple's trade was phenomenal. share with the audience the return. >> sure, and thank you, charles. apple made a great move. it went up from 143 to 157. and that's great for people that have stock but to your point, if you had options the options we talked about with you last monday, went from a little over dollar 40 to.40 dollars. call that about a 400% feign. wouldn't be surprising people are putting more money to work in call options in particular in these battered stokes. tech was one of the most battered sectors. so we're not surprised but we're certainly happy about it, charles. charles: i'm looking at this chart. almost 30%, you have to go all the way back to 1997, 1998 when you had that sort of a return.
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to your point it looks so, so delicious. talk about a couple. first, uecker they will report tomorrow before the open. -- uber. you are bullish, like a bullish option strategy on this right? >> yeah. we always look at volumes, how much stock or options are trading, charles and in this one, we've got 15,000 of basically the at the money calls being purchased. now every option for 100 shares. so that's 1.5 million shares equivalent, betting that their earnings are going to be good. i like to bet with the player that's winning, so i want to go with this trade. i did. i added two calls in uber and obviously the nice thing about it, is, also, charles, you define your risk on entry. i'm not risking 31 bucks. i'm risking just a couple bucks yet i could have that outsized return. charles: i got a minute to go. you in your note you say that
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someone is out there making a major bet that cathie wood will get her swagger that. because of that you like bullish call role, focused on february calls, right? >> yep, february 43 calls. those calls give the owner right to buy that etf or stock at $43 and the stock was just underneath that. they bought 70,000 of these. again follow the smart money,0,000 of 70,000, charles, is 7 million share equivalent. somebody is betting she will go back to the cathie woods of 2020 when she basically put up 155 or, 160%. there were very few folks on wall street managing bills that could do that. she did it in 2020. maybe she has got lightning in a bottle again, charles. charles: maybe. you had lightning in a bottle every time. i appreciate you coming on, my
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man. talk to you real soon. >> thank you, charles. charles: does cathie wood have lightning in a bottle? we'll find out in a moment. cathie wood is our next guest. her fund is absolutely on fire here, but i will ask her about longer term, why is this approach so controversial, why is she convinced, why do so many people believe in her even after all the ups an downs? cathie wood right after this. ♪. (vo) the fully electric audi e-tron family is here.
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♪. charles: you know one could say cathie wood hit wall street like a supernova but in reverse, right? the brightness came first, then the explosion came later. 2022 peppered with articles like this almost on a daily basis, sort of the rise and fall on cathie wood. rogue investors cutting ties. ark innovation flows vanish, hit a five-year low. it was pretty clear that the financial media and even wall street itself, got a certain kind of glee as funds started to flow out of this. of course at one point of course the fund itself was in perpetual
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free fall, yet cathie wood continues to stand, preach the gospel of her approach to investing seeks to capture what she considers a brave new world right around the corner around she describes it in the latest big ideas for 2023. joining me now ark invest ceo, cio, cathie wood. welcome to the show. it has been a while. >> thank you, charles. i'm really happy to be back. charles: happy to have you back. a week ago you publish your big ideas report and it seems the main difference between this, let's say the 2017 version it's a greater sense of urgency, right? it was interesting because the pandemic had sort of created this sense of urgency in 2022, 2020, rather. everyone kept saying hey everything is being moved forward. five years are coming up right now. that proved to be a premature. a lot of these names went up came down. i don't is this time different? are we really on the cusp of a lot of these things coming to fruition? >> if you look what happened
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just last year, the strides that we made in innovation that were not recognized by the market were incredible. so if you're looking at the electric vehicle market, for example, we've moved from 4.8 million units in 2021 to 7.7. so now we're almost 10% of global auto sales and we believe that 7.7 million units is going to 60 million in five years. so we are in what we call the sweet spot of the s curve. charles: right. >> for electric vehicles. we're seeing this in genomic sequencing. we're seeing it in robotics, amazing growth rates in robotics. no wonder because the labor shortages. energy shortage, electric vehicles taking off, especially after oil prices soared. charles: right. >> artificial intelligence breakthroughs. we didn't expect for five years happened in six months in blockchain technology.
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charles: let me jump in on this because in your report this artificial intelligence, obviously it is on fire to your point. take a look, folks. these are the times that a.i. mentioned by big tech companies and latest earnings reports this is nuts. this is all the rage right now. of course, you know, it has mentioned a number of times in your report as well. seems actually to be sort of a, your initial venn diagram at the centerpiece of it all. >> yes. charles: let me show the folks one more thing too just so we can underscore this a little bit more. months to 100 million users, it took linkedin 95 months to get 100 million users, whatsapp, 40 months. taken chatgpt two months to get the same thing. how does this change everything? >> well, i think, what many people are missing is they expect a killer app and sure chatgpt might be that, but it is also quite come advertised.
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who will make money from it? maybe microsoft in open a.i. together. we think the real promise of a.i. certainly in the short term is in productivity gains. already coding assistants have become twice as productive in the last few months, since chatgpt came out. charles: right. >> we believe that the productivity productup lift for knowledge workers for a.i. could be fourfold next five years. charles: i pulled the charity from your presentation. human, a.i., productivity, time to complete coding tasks comes down naturally. i'm a natural born ludite. i know all the industrial revolutions netted more jobs, better jobs, more lives for humankind. chatgpt said they're taking jobs, world, the article said fear world had technology taking
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their jobs, that moment has arrived. outside of the stock market, investment angle, are you concerned this may be different than other industrial revolutions? >> no. no, we think a.i. is the equivalent of assembly line for knowledge workers, right? this is another revolution and i think it will make knowledge workers much more productive which will give them the opportunity to earn higher wages. so i actually think it's a win-win. but those who do not get on the right side of change, for example, harnessing some of these a.i. tools, harnessing their own data that the companies that have proprietary data, they're probably going to be the biggest beneficiaries, but if they don't harness these new tools and the data and if they doesn't bring in enough a.i. expertise they will lose. charles: let's talk about tesla a moment. you mentioned it a moment ago. i know it is your largest holding. one of the things i think it is
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intriguing profit margins for tesla, $9600. the next, gm which is $2000 but you're looking way beyond this, right? your investment thesis goes way beyond this, doesn't it, for tesla? >> talk about a.i., this is a perfect example. tesla has proprietary data, billions and billions of driving data. showing tesla where the problem spots are in autonomous driving or could become in autonomous driving. so they have all of this proprietary data. nobody else has it and we believe they're in the pole position to deliver an autonomous taxi platform in the next three to five years. now the margin, the margin associated with autonomous is going to be sas-like. it will be gross margins in the
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70 to 80% plus range whereas electric vehicles right now are in the mid 20s. charles: right. >> so huge ramifications for tesla, yes. charles: i'm glad you brought up the profit margins because i want you to stay with us. when we come back we'll talk about ark being the new nasdaq and also your targets, your share price targets. a lot of folks are wondering how do you come up with those things. stay with us. we want to dig more into your strategies. of course ark investment again being the next nasdaq. tweet me your thoughts on that because we've got for with cathie wood when we come back. ♪. dad, we got this. we got this.
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last week, you claimed ark is the new nasdaq, saying innovation is no longer present in the nasdaq index. so what makes ark different? is it because the stocks that you're looking at don't qualify for nasdaq? where is your edge here? >> you know, it is interesting when we watch the nasdaq depart from our performance we said what the heck? i don't pay too much attention to indexes honestly. they're very much about the past. what has been successful historically. our portfolios are all about the future. where is the world going? so we took a look at what is inside of the nasdaq since it is supposed to represent innovation. what we found were "faangs," microsoft, nvidia, a lot of same stocks, look like a of large cap portfolios, index centric out there. when we looked at the rest of it -- that accounted for about half and we don't those exempt for tesla, that is one we have in common.
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when we looked the other half, nasdaq 100, only we could get back to data from 2000. we saw wait a minute, energy, brick-and-mortar retail, utilities. charles: right. >> what the heck is this? this is not what the nasdaq used to represent? what we did find is 25% of it was an overlap with the stocks in our universe. so, you know, with he just said we are the pure play innovation universe out there. charles: right. >> and we, but nasdaq is beginning to look a little bit like other indexes, very, very backwards looking. >> there is another part of this. ark fund felt every time powell spoke last year. this gets back to the other positions you ever. how you measure this market, 30 to 40% are zombie companies out there. a lot of these companies are not making money and i think a lot of those, you seem to have in your portfolio and maybe that is one of the reasons you've been such a critic because easy money
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helps those underperforming, those companies that don't make a profit seem to be better when there is easy or accommodative federal reserve. is that one of the reasons you've been so critical of powell? >> no, no, not at all. mine, my criticism at the time was more focused on the unanimity of the board members when it looked like economic activity and inflation were coming down. no, i think what you just said, charles, does not quite represent what we have in our portfolios. charles: okay. >> we have companies in our portfolios right now who are investing aggressively now to capitalize on some big opportunities in history. and we encourage our companies to do that. we want them to sacrifice short-term profitability in order to move into the poll position and, and become the lion's share of some winner take most markets. charles: right. >> tesla did this. tesla did this in 2018, 19. we were criticized enormously
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for holding that stock when it was supposed to go bankrupt. it couldn't scale manufacturing, now it is the most successful electric vehicle manufacturer out there and the market has entered its sweet spot. yes it remains our number unholding because it did invest so much. it is in the pole position. charles: i asked some of our twitter followers to chime in. great question from steven spencer, he tweeted please ask cathie to explain zoom, price target of 1500. microsoft teams seem it take large share from zoom. why a billion dollar price tag on bitcoin, thesis it would be adopted by spx companies has turned out to be incorrect. you're used to these sort of criticisms, the story sounds amazing, it sounds sexy, if it happens all mankind would benefit but the price targets.
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grandiose price targets, do you still back them up. >> start with bought coin. that one we featured in big ideas. we updated forecast, base case for 2030 is $670,000, which from $23,000 is not bad. our bull case is 1 1/2 million dollars. you can see the building blocks how we get there. to the questioner's point, yes, corporate treasuries will not be putting bitcoin on the balance sheet given what happened in the last year. we understand that. we've adjusted our forecasts accordingly, two billion people in the united states in the word, living with double-digit inflation, if not hyperinflation. these people, and others who are afraid of other forms of confiscation of wealth are going
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to use bitcoin as an insurance policy. we do believe that. and, if you look at the building blocks, we're not making very aggressive assumptions. charles: right. >> maybe a 5% insurance policy. as to zoom and zoom is very much in the, in the market's mind right now because of what microsoft's doing with open a.i. and chatgpt. charles: you're comfortable, the bottom line you're comfortable with your targets though? we don't need to go through the whole thesis. in fact i want everyone to read your, phenomenal report and people should read it. before i let you go, cathie. you've been under a tremendous am of pressure. you exploded. you used to come on my show a lot when i was at 6:00. we had great conversations. i had no idea this would happen. you became a juggernaut, but that also made you a target. how are you dealing with the idea that some people say, hey, someone is saying, that the ark
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is the next nasdaq when ark is down 73% in two years? she is disconnected from reality, those folks that follow her are more like cult followers, how do you deal with that? >> i think people who have stuck with us read our research. the courage of our conviction comes from our research. we are doing original research in the area of disruptive innovation. that is all we do. it is centered on wright's law. people believe they're onto something. they feel the ground shifting underneath them. they know they're not exposed to the our stocks in their portfolio for the most part. if you don't believe we're the new nasdaq, we're a hedge against the disruptive innovation that will harm the traditional world order, which is more and more represented by the nasdaq, s&p 500 and the msci world. so use us as a hedge because let me tell you, once this, read our
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big ideas. it is on ark/ once, especially with artificial intelligence moving quickly as it is, once these trends take off, they will be unstoppable and many of them, including in the genomic space which many neglect to mention, probably some of the most profound ramifications of a.i. and other technology breakthroughs is in the what we call the multiomic space, which will cure cancer we believe, will cure other diseases. so what i find so interesting is other, unlike in the tech and telecom bubble, no one is talking about this. we're curing lukemia -- charles: people get a little nervous. i was in a lot of those stocks. they took off like rocket ships. they come down and people get scared when they come down. to your point, i seen it with
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nvidia. was on cover the "forbes" magazine, stock of the year, went from $12 to one dollar for a decade. i love the idea of moonshot stuff taking off and i hope it works out. i hope you come back soon, not wait another six, seven years. >> i will, charles. during the day is a little more tough. i will be back. thank you for inviting me. charles: thank you very much. folks, coming up we continue to focus on the market with really revolutionary thinkers. first i have adam kobiessi on the trading stuff he is doing right now. later on i have michelle coming on with me as well, michelle schneider who always has these unique, fresh takes how to invest in this market. so stay with us. ♪.
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charles: stock market defied all the odds and all the expert this is year. many say there are, too many known risks and too many unknown outcomes to be this excited. joining me now, mark get gauge managing director, michelle schneider. we got the s&p 500. we can see where it struggled. right in the shadows of 4200. you see with the arrows, used to be stock support, now it is resistance. it sets up a pullback you think could be driven by a number of sparks. what are you concerned about here? >> well mainly i'm concerned about the type of headlines we're seeing over the weekend like, for example, just looking at from a geopolitical standpoint tensions with china. putin is certainly seems like he is awfully quiet but getting ready to attack even more, so the press says. we obviously have weather
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issues, what happened with the earthquake, unfortunate incident in turkey, syria and then we also just have generally right now a lot of unknowns about what is going to happen in terms of social unrest and food prices have come down a little bit but they're still very elevated so these are the concerns but, you have to look at what the market's doing, charles, and right now it is following beautifully cycles. it held at six to eight year cycle at the lows in october and it is going right to a two-year cycle here at the top. if we get through there, you basically say, let's just follow what is going on the with the price. things are better than what we can assume, and that two year cycle would mean the soft landing, recession averted and we're going into some kind of a growth period for however long it lasts. i have both mind sets here. charles: but i know that you always kind of filter your, at least yourcution through this old adage of don't fight the fed. i thought one of the ironic things though, there is another
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old adage says don'tfied the fed. they have been in conflict with each other. we have a zillion fed officials speaking this week. do you think we'll have a better idea what powell meant last wednesday? >> no, not really because i think he was pretty clear actuallily. he said we'll raise more. we look at data points. we think right now we're on the road to a soft landing and, essentially unless inflation gets out of control we'll keep the course and possibly pause. so what more could he say? that is exactly what he should say, so -- charles: listen, i actually took it that he believes he have can engineer a soft landing and i really believe now, michelle, he always thought he could do a soft landing but he never had the confidence. to me last wednesday powell had the confidence to say out loud than he did at very beginning but how could a guy who missed
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trans make such a statement at beginning? you're adding gold though? >> regardless of scenario, we avoid recession, we go into some growth period, the goal that would be good for the goals. one of the things i heard cathie with double-digit inflation people will run to bitcoin. that may be true but hasn't been proven yet. gold is seeing a tremendous amount of buying by countries. oil is priced with gold out of russia. i see technically any opportunity to buy on a dip makes sense unless it breaks 1780 a ounce. charles: left it there, michelle. always fantastic to have you on the show and folks, we'll be right back. navigate uncertain times before, now is no different. with his advice, i'm confident i'm on track. the plan we created is for the long term.
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♪. charles: all right. >> tomorrow fed chair powell speaking in washington, d.c., and of course everyone is going to be watching. michelle and i just talked about it, sort of for the clarification, at least with his tone and if he really, really does think he can pull off a soft landing and my theory is he is not going to rock the boat, folks this is hours before president biden gives a state of the union address. so that he could be bullish tomorrow. we'll see.
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joining me to discuss, kobiessi letter editor-in-chief, adam kobiessi. adam, you earlier posted this tweet. i appreciate it you put into perspective what we're talking about here, we're now at a new point, new point in the fed tightening cycle. reasons to pivot. the fed is look fog a reason to pivot. you think now, powell is looking, if he could get the excuse, pivot, are you talking about pause and then cut? >> yes. so the term pivot obviously become so debatable. charles: right. >> we mean they start to pause maybe after one or two more 25 bihikes or maybe december of next year. last weeks's meeting we viewed it honestly dovish, a little more doveish than he has been. charles: sure. >> as long as he wasn't full out hawkish we've seen in the last year, that is a good sign. we're seeing what he talks about yet. i don't know if people saw what he talked about in the press
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conference, he said in upcoming fed minutes there is a lot of discussion what is coming next. first time he said that. i think a who are divided fed. charles: first time he said inflation in december 13 times, this time he said zero times. lael brainerd the week before. everyone is galvanizing getting on board, maybe they don't want to take a victory lap but to your point maybe they have a reason to pivot. this week we have fed, powell tomorrow, six fed speakers, other economic data, when we look back on friday, what do you think will move the market the most? >> fed is obviously in the spotlight with speakers. we're still digesting what this huge jobs report was where, i know we talked about this before on the show, the job expectations i don't know who is coming up with those, but we're way above expectations but honestly we think this increased chance of quote, unquote, soft landing maybe the labor market
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can stay strong. you don't have to necessarily have a full out recession for inflation to come down. signs are saying inflation is starting to come down. wage growth is starting to come down again. the big thing what will happen with cpi in january. that is a huge data point. charles: let's talk about the different assets you invest in, where you are right now. first s&p 500 you're bullish this is more of a trading position, right? what are you looking for? >> we think we can start moving towards 4300 -- charles: 4300? wow. >> we've been bullish since 3900. charles: wow, i have to put exclamation point on that one. what about crude, looking sloppy, you're bullish on it? >> we think going back to 85. charles: 85, wti. >> political tensions are huge catalyst. not to mention the weaker dollar. that is behind going into gold. charles: gold new high? go back to 2100? >> 2000 for sure. charles: get back in gold if you're not in it already. >> yep.
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weaker dollar. charles: bond yields gone up. two year-year-old one-month high. knee-jerk bounce maybe? you're bullish on bonds? you're looking for yields to pull -- >> look. i think market right now, everyone is in shock. this huge job as report on friday, powell said we want a weaker labor market. i think that could be a one off thing. charles: long it. lt? >> long it. lt. even if it isn't, fed pivot is still on the table. it is are what we think the market expects fed to do, working toward pivot direction. charles: thank you, adam. love the new suit. i'm checking you out. folks, the white house released a video over the weekend. i tell you why they might haveld i tell you why they might haveld messed up with it. we'll be right -surprise! -for you, mama. ...can help you open those doors. back. doors were meant to be opened.
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charles: all right, so the white house released this video yesterday saying that the biden-harris administration if's working to cut credit card late fees from $31 to the $8 saying it will save americans as much as $9 billion a year. two days before the state of the union address, in fact, when i watched the clip, my main thought was, you know, maybe they're saying that american households are about to get crushed without saying american households are about to get crushed. i mean, listen, president biden inherited the lowest household debt services payment as a percentage of dispose if bl income ever, 4.85%, it's almost 6% now. we know that the free money is
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fading away, credit cards are soaring, 18.5% in the fourth quarter, we're at a record now. outstanding debt, $430 billion, on top of that, payments are zooming. the average interest rate on credit cards has erupted in the past year. so, you know, listen, it's great when you can cut back on the small amount with respect to the late fees, but the bottom line is you know there's going to be the late fees. that's why people are coming back to the labor force which is a good thing, a although i'm not sure they're going to make enough money to keep up with these the credit card bills and some of the other bills that are coming due. it was a lot of fun, but the free ride might be over. liz claman. liz: yeah. great interview with cathie woo- charles: thank you, i appreciate it. liz: well, she's sticking to her knitting which is give me five years. this is not a short-term fund. charles: exactly. liz: she's always said that. and she talked a lot about a.i., charles. we've got breaking news on that, headlines exploding as we speak. we told you about that land grab


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