tv Making Money With Charles Payne FOX Business February 16, 2023 2:00pm-3:00pm EST
the podium and spew the same rhetoric he always does. he will not take a hard-line when it comes to china. that is what people really want to see. they want to know the rest of the objects. we know one spy balloon was chinese but what about the rest of them? do we have other threats we're facing in american people deserve answers to these questions. taylor: up next, you think about taiwan, make sure if we're confronting being tough on china, we have to make sure their next stop isn't taiwan. brian: charles payne is coming up next. there is a lot going on today. he will be on all of it, not the least of which all the inflation data seems buried behind everything else. charles payne is up next with "making money." charles: that's right. brian: you got it. >> thanks a lot, guys. good afternoon, everyone, i'm charles payne. this is "making money." we're waiting to hear from president biden finally break his silence on those flying
objects. what did we shoot down and why did it take so long to bring the chinese surveillance balloon down. we will have the comments live. as you can see on the screen we're in the red. we're off the lows after consumer prices came in hotter than expected. i think it was the fed's loretta mester, came out in a speech this morning in an effort to spook the market. it is working. i will ask ed yardeni if he is confident about the stock market. the consumer are resilient but are they on borrowed time is this the 21st century or not. jerone mart tis will help unconfuse it. bitcoin shifted in overdrive since the scandal began. charlie monger is not with us. he said something you don't want
to hear. put it this way he is not too happy about america. bitcoin's big move. have you wondered the legitimacy of government economic data. i know you. you're not alone. more experts are calling it garbage. don luskin will give us his take. more on "making money". ♪. charles: all right, folks, you're looking at the white house right now. we're expecting president biden at any moment to discuss, do we have two minute warning yet? president biden will be out any moment. we got it covered for you. he is going to discuss those flying objects. we shot several down. of course it all began when a surveillance balloon launched in china crossed over alaska and then spent a week in our country. now people are hoping to get some answers. meanwhile on wall seat the debate continues to rage as pros on the street watch from the trenches. the prosperity train, folks is
starting to move out of the station. how far will it go before you know, before the folks jump in so i thought we would look at gymnastics. this is what it is all about. sticking the landing. this is the perfect landing, when you stick a landing like that you got a good chance getting a 10. so so landings, not so much. is that what our economy is on the verge of doing or will we have something that gives us some penalties? we'll see. most folks on wall street think we will not stick the landing. here is the debate. hard landing, weak demand unemployment rises, this is true do ma'am i cans of recession. are we in it? a lot of you are personally. when do we get the data to back it up? this soft landing, inflation evaporates, sort of goes away. there is the no landing. big flip. it gives us borrowed time. means the economy is pretty good right now. here is the problem with this, folks, the federal reserve still has to hike rates more and more.
we're not down enough. that means that the downturn comes later. in this case maybe 2024 or even 2025. so this is where we are. meanwhile, what really got this market really down i think wasn't the ppi report. cleveland fed president loretta mester she came out said she is thinking about the 50 rate hike, last meeting she was thinking about this right now. i got to tell you the fed officials jawboning this market lower. not man biting dog at this point but still effective. joining me yardeni research head, ed yardeni. a headline we saw yesterday. things looking brighter for the u.s. economy. it will dodge even a soft hit to growth. you still feel that way after all the data out this week? >> well, i think that, we certainly aren't seeing any data supporting the hard landing for now. there is still a lot of debate about the data. we know that in january
industrial production of utilities was down substantially. apparently it was a pretty warm month, not just in new york where i live but on balance over the rest of the country. that may have given some of these numbers more strength than would otherwise have been the case i think all in all the economy is still growing. atlanta fed is still forecasting 3.4% for the economic growth in the first quarter. i don't see a credit crunch. for now i don't see a recession. charles: i love your take on that number, sharpest decline on utilities because it was warm everywhere. when it is warm everywhere that picks up economic activity. that is why you're the guest, i'm the host. it feels like it is experiencing a law of diminishing returns. what is your thought about the fed saying 50 basis points and everyone jumps in a foxhole?
>> well every now and then with all due respect i call the fomc the federal open mouth committee. sometimes they talk too much. i think a gag order would be appropriate. we've seen fed officials, mostly towing the line and the line has been, line is 25 basis points per meeting. for next couple meetings. they might pause, they might not. if they don't pause it will be 25 basis points per meeting. all of sudden she throws this grenade of 50 basis points and i think the markets basically took it in stride. we saw a little bit of a selloff in the stock market, selloff in the bond market but i think some of that was clearly related to the hotter than expected ppi. charles: right. >> the year-over-year percent changes are still moderating. charles: that was an 8:45 speech. i think it was probably preplanned or a quick audible because the numbers came out 15 minutes before that. >> possibly. charles: not just the fed though, right? you have major firms on
wall street. at this point they're breathlessly warning but the incoming calamity. i dig the fact they're trying to help the public. jpmorgan talking about a meaningful downside risk amid complacency. so the audience understands, they did a survey. shows share clients exposure will see 68% will say in coming days or weeks. with respect to complacency, yeah, we're too complacent. i'm a little concerned, ed, these large firms with these brilliant folks who have an idea, right, they have a theses. they never get off the theses. instead they find things like this to justify it even when the market may be saying something completely different. >> right. i think the important point to make here is that is that the public should know and should be ready for this market to be for long-term investors and every now and then you will get corrections. every now around then you will get a bear market. the problem with folks on wall street who try to call the tops in, in bull markets is thee
forget to tell us when to get back in at the bottom of the bear markets. i really think the market made a low on october 24th. it has been a nice rebound since then but i think investors have to understand that on the short-term basis there can be volatility. long term you're betting that the u.s. economy is going to continue to grow. the companies are well-managed, stocks will reflect that. charles: there is the old axiom about buying low when under this kind of duress. ed, thank you so much. always appreciate you. thank you. >> thank you. charles: folks i want to go to evans wealth managing partner elizabeth evans. elizabeth i read your wealth letter from january 24th. the market of course has been a whirlwind since then. i want to catch up. first the observation you made about the market being oversold. you were absolutely right about that. since then do you think we've come too far too fast? >> thanks, charles, excited to
be here. i think the short answer to that is no. i agree with ed in that we do believe that we saw a low in october. i think if you look at what the market did in december i think that the investors across the board were really pricing in zero to negative earnings growth in 2023. so now the market is starting to price in the likelihood of a soft landing. earnings growth at the end of 2023 into 2024. so i think we're going to have a tremendous amount of volatility but i think the market moves higher from here and i think we see positive returns in both equities and bonds. charles: i like that. it feels like a parlor game every day. the fed funds rate where it's going, terminal rate, whether 50 basis point or 25 basis point, it feels like it should be almost inconsequential at this point. feels like no matter what to a degree they're winding down, do you feel that way? >> i think a month ago we expected, the market was pricing
in the terminal rate to be 4.75 to 5. now we're at 5.25 to 5 1/2%. i think certainly we'll see another 25 basis points in march. likely see another 25 basis points in may. we'll see where cpi and pce come in in that next read but i think the market is pricing that in so now we're looking forward and i think from a technical standpoint we're excited because we've seen a golden cross in the s&p 500 where the 50-day moving average crosses the 200-day on the upside. so that is a very positive indicator. charles: right. >> and so we think it is time for clients who have cash on the sidelines, it is time to get in. charles: listen i need you to bear with me. we have just a minute to go before president biden starts to speak. you just mentioned that. >> okay. charles: there is some evidence that investors were selling this rally and so what are you saying? are you telling folks to get back in, saying this is it, get back in this market what are they telling you? >> well retail investors as you
know, charles, are, are often times backward looking. so retail investors see higher interest rates, they see higher prices, they're nervous. you say, you tell them, i think as an advisor our job is to be forward-looking. when you have a golden cross historically 30, 65, 195 days later the s&p 500 has been positive 75% of the time. so it is not to say that we don't see a lot of volatility this year but i think we move higher and i don't think we retest the october lows. charles: elizabeth, you know what? i heard you were fantastic and they were right. thank you very much. appreciate it. talk to you soon. >> thank you, charles. charles: we're talking about retail getting back into this market, the fear of missing out. i got to tell you it is not just the retail crowd but hedge funds as well. i want to bring in erin gibbs. you know all about this, you were a ballerina. soft landing perfect, no
deductions. we have issues, lack of incorrect body posture. where are you on the soft, hard, no landing debate? >> i think most likely is the soft landing. charles: let's go to president biden. president biden: last week in the immediate aftermath of the incursion by china's high altitude balloon our military through the north american aerospace defense command, so-called norad, closely scrutinized the, our airspace including enhancing our radar to pick up more slow-moving objects above our country, around the wormed. in doing so they tracked three unidentified objects, one in alaska, canada and over lake huron in the midwest. they acted in occurred cans with established parameters how to deal with unidentify objects in us air space. at their recommendation i gave the order to take down these three objects due to hazards to
civilian commercial air traffic because we could not rule out the surveillance risk of sensitive facilities. we acted in consultation with the canadian government. i spoke personally with prime minister trudeau and, from canada on saturday and just as critically we acted out of an abundance of caution and an opportunity that allowed us to take down these objects safely. our military and the canadian military are seeking to recover the debris so we can learn more about these three objects. our intelligence community is still assessing all three incidents. they're reporting to me daily and will continue their urgent efforts to do so, i will communicate that to the congress. we don't know exactly what these three objects were but nothing right now suggest they were related to china's spy balloon program or they were surveillance vehicles from any other country. the intelligence community's current assessment these three objects were most likely
balloons tied to private companies, recreation or research institutions studying weather or conducting other scientific research. when i came into office i instructed our intelligence community to take a broad look at the phenomenon of unidentified aerial objects. we know that a range of entities including countries, companies, and research organizations operate objects at altitutdes nt nefarious but including scientific research. i want to be clear we don't have any evidence that there is a sudden increase in number of the objects in the sky. we're seeing more of them partially because of the steps we taken to increase our radars, narrow our radars and we have to keep adapting our approach to dealing with these challenges. i directed my team to come back to me with sharper rules how we deal with these on identified objects moving forward,
distinguishing between those likely to pose safety and security risks that necessitate action and those that do not. but make no mistake, if any object present as threat to the safety, security of the american people i will take it down. i will be sharing with congress these classified policy parameters when they are completed and they will remain classified so we don't give our road map to our enemies to try to evade our defenses. going forward these parameters will guide what actions we'll take while responding to unmanned and unidentified aerial objects. we'll keep adapting them as the challenge evolves if it evolves. in addition i directed my national security advisor to lead a government-wide effort to make sure we're positioned to deal safely and effectively with the objects in our airspace. first we will establish a better inventory of unmanned airborne objects in space above the united states airspace and make sure that invery inventory is
abscessable and up to date. second we'll simply ment further measures to i will positive craft to edeck unmanned objects in our airspace. third, we'll update the rules and regulations for launching maintaining unmanned objects above the skies in the united states of america. and fourth, my secretary of state will lead an effort to help establish a global, a global, common global norms in this largely unregulated space. these steps will lead to safer and more secure skies for our air travelers, our military, our scientists and for people on the ground as well. that is my job as your president and commander-in-chief. as the events of the previous days have shown we'll always act to protect the interests of the american people and the security of the american people. since i came to office we developed the ability to identify, track, study high altitude surveillance balloons connected with the chinese
military. when one of these high altitude surveillance balloons entered our airspace over the continental united states earlier in the month i gave the order to shoot downtown as soon as it would be safe to do so. the military advised against shooting it down over land because of the sheer size of it. it was the size of multiple school buses and posed a risk to people on the ground if it was shot down where people lived. instead we tracked it closely. we analyzed its capabilities and we learned more about how it operates. because we knew its path we were able to protect sensitive sites against collection. we waited until it was safely over water which would not only protect civilians but also enable us to recover substantial components for further analystics and then we shot it down, sending a clear message, clear message, violation of our sovereignty is unacceptable. we'll act to protect our country and we did.
now this past friday we put restrictions on six firms that directly support the peoples republic liberation army. the peoples liberation army aerospace program. that includes airships and balloons, denying them access to u.s. technology. we briefed our diplomatic partners and our allies around the world and we know about china's program and where their balloons have flown. some of them have also raised their concerns directly with china. our exports have lifted components of the chinese balloons payload off the ocean floor. we'rage losing them as i speak and what we learned will strengthen our capabilities. we'll continue to engage with china as we have throughout the past two weeks. as i've said since the beginning of my administration we seek competition, not conflict with china. we're not looking for a new cold war but i make no apologize, i make no apologies and and we
will compete and we will be responsibly manage that competition so that it doesn't veer into conflict. this episode underscores the importance of maintaining open lines of communication between our diplomats and our military professionals. our diplomats will be engaging further and i will remain in communication with president xi. i'm grateful for the work of the last several weeks of our intelligence, diplomatic, military professionals who have proved once again to be the most cape ann in the world. i want to thank you all. look, the other thing i want to point out is that we're going to keep our allies and the congress contemporaneously informed of all we know and all we learn and i expect to be speaking with president xi and i hope we have going to get to the bottom of this but i make no apologies for taking dowuch. [reporters shouting questions] >> was anyone, sir, there has
criticism this, there has been criticism. >> compromised by your family's business relaxes ships. president biden: give me a blakeman. >> dud overrhee act, there is criticism overreaction done because of political pressure. president biden: come ask my question when we have more polite people. >> mr. president, why have you chosen poland anniversary of the war? what is your message? >> when are you speaking to president xi, mr. president? charles: president biden there contemplating answering questions being thrown at him from a number of reporters. most of them sounded like questions that we all wanted answers. i want to bring in iris independent research president rebecca grant. rebecca, felt like an almost open letter apology to president xi. me think it protest too much. he said it wasn't an apology but
underscoring our goal is to be competitive, not to have conflict. declaring we're not in a cold war. most people believe we are indeed in a cold war. your assessment what we just heard, how we got here? >> yes to cap it off, notice he said he expects to speak with president xi. the fact is china won't pick up the phone when secretary of defense austin calls. so this conversation isn't going on. i was disappointed that he just went back to the same old policy of compete and best in a line. it would have been a good moment for president biden to talk about more arms sales to taiwan. charles, he didn't give us much new about either the big balloon or the three objects. couple things i did notice but i was pretty disappointed. charles: there was a question hurled at him about whether or not this whole thing with three additional balloons was sort of offset the criticism that the administration took for allowing
this surveillance balloon to launch from china? there is evidence that we knew about it before it got even over alaska and then to carry over a week over sensitive sites. and then on top of that too, rebecca, i want you to answer this, when he says that they knew the path so they were able to protect collection. just the whole, how much of this was just public relations? what did we learn? should we feel safer? >> yes, a lot of that was public relations. now they're saying oh, we got to watch the balloon. of course they will pick up the pieces, glad to hear they have got the payload up but don't fall for this we got to watch the big balloon operate. that is just an excuse. should we feel safer? oh, certainly we see that norad is engaged and the one little new piece here is that they are going to review the rules for tracking and shooting down objects and try to work on a better database ever objects. so clearly norad is going
through a big review process. we don't expect them to tell us the ins and outs right now but i'm glad they will review their procedures but i see biden bending over backwards not to annoy china and not to link china to these three objects. i'm very disappointed that he is not giving out the stronger message, that even people in his own party are will willing to say. senator ben cardin of maryland is willing to say we need to push back harder but biden won't do that. it is frustrating. charles: why do you think that is? >> i wouldn't begin to guess but this administration has been known to not want to provoke china. charles: right. >> is it because of economic reasons? i don't know. that is no longer the right policy for the u.s. if you're an american business doing business in china, you might want to think through and make some other arrangements. this shows how quickly things can change. charles: i think it was the little nation that could little
duchy at war with america but we didn't know. are we at a cold war, administration doesn't know it, won't admit it? here is the thing, when i woke up the news that hit me from overseas, asml, one of the largest, sophisticated semiconductor companies in the world acknowledged that a former chinese national employee stole a bunch of equipment. we know that this balloon, the payload carried a lot of equipment stamped usa or was american technology. this is where people are really concerned. we know that we put up some barriers and we're trying to get some of the semiconductor stuff and technology out of the hands of the communist chinese but is it too little too late? >> we need to do more but, yes, we mr. in a very competitive race with china. this is very close to a cold war and there is no question that china wants to get the usa. they hate us. intrusions, whether from universities, cyber espionage,
economics, buying farmland, big balloons and surveillance, or the way they invade the airspace of china. there is no question china's global military ambitions are dominating everything at this point. as americans hey, we've got to wake up, do what we need to do to protect our economy and to deter china militarily. charles: rebecca, thank you so much. always appreciate your expertise. thank you. >> thank you. charles: folks let's pick back up on the market where there has been very little movement during the presser there. i want to come back to erin gibbs. erin, let me just ask you about this. the market for the most part has ignored the story. you know, to me it is pretty remarkable, if you look at the history of the stock market, vis-a-vis, heightened conflict, the threat of conflict or even actual conflict t has got a way of actually zigging when most people would think it zags, what is that all about in your mind, the market has a way to say, it is not indifference. sometimes it feels like it is actually emboldened by these
kind of things? >> we learned so many times conflict often leads to greater economic prosperity and so we do get that initial fear reaction but very quickly we realize, wow, this could be a bonus because there will be more spending. i think time it might be, you know we're so concerned about inflation and government spending that it actually might be a negative in this case because there is just too much money supply out there and that is part of the problem. charles: the irony, almost everyone acknowledges including democrats this defense budget will be the biggest ever. >> we have so much money because it is taking the fed so long with so many hikes because it is fighting government spending that. is the where real conundrum is. why we're seeing a little more nuances in the stock market. it is all about stock-pickers. it is not about broad markets. it is not like we're seeing, we're seeing see divergence across different sectors due to
different factors. that is where you have to be really careful exactly where you're investing. >> are you surprised though that this market, the characteristic of the market, 2023 open down, filed a way to rally into the close, no matter what the news is? they're trying to do it now. honestly i would not be surprised if the s&p and or nasdaq finished higher today. that is something you would not have considered at the open this morning. >> certainly not. looking at earnings season and earnings revisions being revised down. charles: ugly. >> just horrible and yet we're still up for the past since earnings season for the past two weeks. so a little more muted. it is not as much, big of swings as last year which is actually healthily. charles: last year, it was a only thing that saved the market was the closing bell, right? if it was a boxing match you would have thrown in the towel at 2:30. before i let you go, what are you doing in the market? you were really cautious, really
conservative last time we spoke. >> again i'm not doing broad market investing. very specific on witch stocks except for europe. i do like europe as broad market plays. >> is that based mostly on valuation? >> partly on valuations, better revisions. they're looking better while we're revising down. i think that is just something you can play off the next couple months. charles: i better one would be shocked to know that the ftse, the main index in great britain is all-time high right now. go figure. >> denmark, italy, a lot of european indices are all-time highs and recovering we're struggling. it's a good run for a lot of broad markets in europe. charles: erin, thank you so much. i appreciate it. >> thank you. >> all right, folks, we'll be right back. ♪. charging something like a hundred bucks a window when other guys were charging four
to five-hundred bucks. he just didn't wanna do that. he was proud of the price he was charging. ♪ my dad instilled in me, always put the people before the money. be proud of offering a good product at a fair price. i think he'd be extremely proud of me, yeah. ♪ for businesses of all sizes, there are a lot of choices when it comes to your internet and technology needs. when you choose comcast business internet, you choose the largest, fastest reliable network. you choose advanced security for total peace of mind. and you choose a next generation 10g network that's always improving, getting faster; more reliable; and more intelligent to keep you ready for today and tomorrow. the choice is clear:
make your business future ready with the network from the most innovative company. comcast business. powering possibilities™. ...will remain radioactive for years to come. well, thank goodness. it's time for the "good news of the week." and, boy, do we need it. [ chuckles ] well, this safe driver saved money with the snapshot app from progressive. -how do you feel? -um, good? he's better than good. he got rewarded for driving safe and driving less. sorry, barb, just to confirm, this is the feel-good news of the week? this is what we found. -yay, snapshot!
decisions meeting by meeting taking into account the totality of incoming data. we'll be looking carefully at incoming data. that is a decision that will depend on the data. we're going to be guided by the data. charles: they have been taling us all about the data. every week investors are on pins and needles about the slate of economic data on the calendar but sometimes you know it is interesting what's been happening because more and more folks are starting to question that data. in fact many experts are calling it garbage and for a variety of reasons including this whole seasonality adjustments, who knows what that is all about and fewer participants. most of these are surveys. no one is taking a survey. you talk about a small pool, it is ridiculous. let's bring in right now trend macro chief investment officer don luskin. and first and foremost, don, i got to tell you your firm does amazing research. maybe the fed should start talking about your research when they start making these decisions but until they do that how much faith should we have in government reports like the
jolts report? i think 30% of the folks on the survey even bothered to fill it out. the jobs report. go down the list. they're not even doing surveys so how can we base important decisions on it? >> look, fair enough and you know, when you hear jerome powell just use the word data a thousand times he is just treating sitting you don't even have to think about. of course you have to think about it. these things are big complicated processes with lots of errors in them. so the last payroll report we got up 517,000 jobs when on a non-seasonally adjusted basis down 2 1/2 million acquiring minds want to know where is it? that is a three million range we can choose from. we collect a lot of data, we can cross-check it against itself. a lot of ways to look at the labor market. a lot of waives to look at inflation. we want to take a multimodal approach where we find some way
they all generally agree in order to get the big picture. we don't want the central bank, no investor should for his own portfolio hang on any data point. just get the big picture of the big picture is looking pretty good. we're seeing jobs continue to grow in this country. you by definition cannot have a recession until jobs contract. that is not happening. as far as inflation is concerned we know it is moderating. it is not moderating fast enough for us because it's a bad thing. we want it to moderate quickly. it is not. it is moderating as quickly as it arose. charles: right. >> there too the data is very funny. the last cpi report we got on tuesday everyone thought was so red hot, that was a result of reweighting of consumption factors inside the basket of 300 or so categories of goods and services they measure. charles: right. >> if you use the old weighting scheme instead up 50 basis points on the month, it was only up four basis points. who knows.
inflation is moderating, jobs are growing. we're not anywhere near a recession. charles: let's talk about recessions because of the 20 recessions since the creation of the federal reserve in 1913 not a single one of them actually precede ad presidential election. is that in part by design you think? >> i know where that research comes from. i'm not going to mention their name because they're friends but i'm afraid it is just wrong. the last two recessions in fact began during presidential election years. the fed is not engineering a way recessions for election years. oh, my god i only wish the fed were that smart. it is not. charles: you remain optimistic even last year even through some roughest parts, real rough patches so what do you make of the overwhelming bearishness among your peers, among experts on wall street remind us every day to hide, run for cover? what is this all about? >> i don't know what it's about.
this, so many things in life, like the big panic about covid, i guess like the salem witch trials, people lose their minds in crowds and they only come to their senses one at a time. so we had a bear market last year. nobody was expecting it and you know people are, they're beat up about that. so they assume whatever happened the last time will happen again. please don't hit me gain. well that is a tale as old as time. market bottoms happen when everyone who is going to sell has sold. so when the whole chorus is singing from bearish hymn book, they all sold. sellers are gone. you know what that leaves? the buyers. charles: buyers are doing pretty good right now, including you, don. >> so far so good. charles: really appreciate how you walked us through that. very informative. don, appreciate it. >> thank you. charles: all right, folks this recession anxiety out there but it's it's all centered on the labor market. things have changed dramatically
on the workforce. it is not a new phenomenon. we're coming to something it has to give. we're holding a special, i will hold a special, future of work, town hall on march 9th, here is the beautiful thing if you want to join me liver in my new york city studio i wanted you to be here. ask me or ask guest as question. right now go to eventbrite.com, search for charles payne and free tickets. i look forward to seeing you. coming up berkshire hathaway's charlie monger has, golly he has some pretty tough words for crypto. you thought he was angry before. wait until you hear what he has got to say now. genieve roch-decter is here with me. this juggernaut, jerome mart tease is here to discuss that maybe happy for the stock, and
(voya mnemonic.) there are some things that go better...together. hey! like your workplace benefits... and retirement savings. with voya, considering all your financial choices together... can help you be better prepared for unexpected events. for a brighter financial future. thanks. ahh pretzel and mustard... another great combo. (voya mnemonic.) voya. well planned. well invested. well protected. only at vanguard, you're more than just an investor—you're an owner.
we got this, babe. that means that your dreams are ours too. and our financial planning tools can help you reach them. that's the value of ownership. ♪ (cheery music) - they get it. they know how it works... and more importantly... it works for them. - i don't have any anxiety about money anymore. - i don't have to worry about a mortgage payment every month. - it allowed me to live in my home... and not have to pay payments. - [narrator] if you're 62 or older and own your home, you could access your equity to improve your lifestyle. a reverse mortgage loan eliminates your monthly mortgage payments and puts tax-free cash in your pocket. call the number on your screen. - it was the best thing i've ever done, and- - really? - yes, without a doubt! - just like these folks, aag can show you how a reverse mortgage loan uses your built-up home equity to give you tax-free cash. - it's a good thing. - why don't you get the facts? like these folks did.
- [narrator] call right now to receive your free, no-obligation info kit. call the number on your screen. ♪. charles: the big question when it comes to the economy is just the state of the consumer, and how much longer can they hold on? i want to bring in director of research, jharone martis. here is the question, are consumers on a living on borrowed time? on a three month rolling average we peaked back then in 2021 but we're still doing good. at this level we're still way above anything pre-pandemic this is strong level of retail sales. it is not adjusted for retail sales per se. here is one of the problems, consumer credit to disposable income, this is starting to spike up. maybe a sign of stress. people using credit cards more than they have in a long time. there is the question about lending. banks are not lending.
there is tightening up the lending, this is pretty important, because when banks tighten lending, you see the blue line, those are recessions. when they lend money out we don't have recession. recess, recession, no recession. here we are now. so we have all of these things coming in together. all of these different things to consider, yet we still see with a consumer finds a way to go out to spend money. >> refinitiv consumer confidence tells us it is because of the job market. it is firing on all cylinders in the united states. that consumer feels confident in their job security. we're seeing as a result even low end consumer are still resilient. dollar stores are seeing a spike in same-store sales but we're seeing that the low income consumer is doing same thing as middle income consumer, sticks to staples, moving acriminal from discretionary. charles: retail sales couple things blew my mind. start with eating and drinking. >> yes. charles: i read yesterday, i
never put this together, cost of living adjustment for social security up 9%. that is what people like to do, they get extra money to go out and dine, denny's grand slam look good. coupons? >> couped up demand from the pandemic. people want the experience. eating and drinking this 7.2 is month over month. year over year it was 25.2%. which again underlines how much consumers want experience over things right now. looking at projections for the remainder of this year, restaurants will still be the winners. charles: this is kind of crazy. e-commerce up 1.3%, was supposed to put department stores out of business 20 years ago. what is up with department stores? how come they have this much resiliency? >> all because of those discounts. in collaboration with eccentric pricing retailers ramped up the discounts to over 40% in the month of january, highest we've seen in over a year and it worked. it brought in all those shoppers to the department stores. now there is one that really
stands out and it will be a big winner and that is dillard's. we think they will smash expectations. earnings right now, the estimate is $12. we think it will be north of $16. over four dollars. charles: i love dillards. i have a lot of money doubt in alabama. i've family that worked there. i've been in and out of the stock for years. i should have held on. less than a minute to go, opposite end of spectrum, louis vuitton new head of men's wear, creative, what does it mean for the stock which had a hell of a run? >> this stock we're predicting not only will beat earnings expectations but also again beat by a lot. so currently it is about 15 arrows per share. we believe it will be closer to 16 euros and 50 cents this is because of collaboration, luxury
consumer back, shopping in macau, hong kong, traveling looking for the louis vuitton items. lou very by the ton burberry, hermes will do kel court according to our data. charles: after you leave, one of these company as reports, jharne told me to buy that have you seen the price of bitcoin lately? it has gone through the roof. i talked about it held a technical point, no one believed me. watch this. is it too early to say bitcoin is in a bull market? your theory on the a breakout. it is in a breakout. resistance to 25,000. we know bitcoin can move big. is it it too early to talk 30,000? is it? we will talk about with someone next who really knows crypto. we'll talk about someone who doesn't like crypto. charlie monger is at it again.
genevieve roch-decter is with us. ♪. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay. after advil.
as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network. with no line activation fees or term contracts. saving you up to 60% a year. and it's only available to comcast business internet customers. so boost your bottom line by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities.
fed will keep hiking. what does that mean for us as investors? bring in great capital ceo genevieve roch-decter. how far do you see this fed going? there are so many signs, even this morning right? headlines were ppi and mester. we also had housing starts were unmitigated disaster. philly fed manufacturing report was an unmitigated disaster. so does the fed really have to be as aggressive as they're advertising? >> i do. i think that they're going to have to raise by at least another 50 basis points and get the federal funds rate above 5%. that is not just me saying that. that is what the bond market is telling us. you know that inflation print from a couple days back, charles, cereal prices up 15% year-over-year. dairy prices up 14% year-over-year. this needs to be reined in. charles: yeah. >> consumer is now taking on credit card debt at unprecedented levels. the interest rate on that debt
is also really high. and it is problematic, given a lot of americans are living paycheck to paycheck. the fact that "the wall street journal" came out with a headline advising people to skip breakfast to save money this is ridiculous. charles: yeah. >> the state of where we're at needs to slow down. >> no, i agree, when you start messing with my captain crunch we got a problem but you know this 50 basis point is advertised, we know about it, we've known about it a long time and the market is ignoring it. as an investor should you let that hold you back right now considering you know, it is not an unknown? if they do do 25 basis points, so what? it's a sense that it's a known already seems to be baked into the market. >> exactly. and that's the thing. the market is always forward-looking and it knows this so it is discounting it. i think the market was up so much in january is because it was down so much in december. it was a relief rally and there isn't as many unknowns now,
right? like the fed isn't going to raise at the rate they did last year. the percentage, you know probability of that is so tiny. market likes stability and certainty and we have more of that now than we did last year. charles: let me ask you to change gears for a moment because yesterday charlie monger made a comment about crypto. i am going to paraphrase. he is not proud of his country to allow crypto [bleep]. he said those who opposed his thinking were idiots. you brought crypto in the past. i think you will be a buyer in the future. what does that make you? what do you feel when you hear that kind of thing? >> i would respectfully, charlie monger is an og but i would respectfully disagree with him. i congratulate him 99 years old still being in the investment game but i think he is out of touch with technology and berkshire hathaway and warren buffett admitted that in the
past. this is a way to send value all around the world without having government intervene and devalue the currency away just like it has done. charles: right. >> not just places like argentina where inflation is at 99%. since the federal reserve was created in 1913 the u.s. dollar has been devalued by 98%. i think americans understand this. charles: yeah. >> this is a way, an attempt to solve this. charles: by the way if i'm blessed to be 99 i will be cursing everybody out too. got 30 seconds i know you're looking at apple. what do you need to pull the trigger. >> looking at tesla. charles: tesla. >> tesla is on the watch list. what do i need to pull the trigger? i need to do more deep dive on it. i love what he is doing, cutting costs. last quarter he cut costs 50%, profits surged 49%. cutting prices on each vehicle the rest of corporate america is gouging cutting prices. he said january was the highest record of orders in history and so things are looking good over
there. it is generating earnings. so warren buffett maybe you want to look at it too, i don't know. charles: elon musk, a man of the people. genevieve, thank you so much. always appreciate seeing you. folks i want to remind you again, get your tickets, join me right here in studio, it will be a blast. i'm hosting the future of work. a town hall on march 9th, 2:00 p.m. go to event bright.com. search charles payne for tickets. we'll be right back. doors can lead us toward what's important. your dedicated fidelity advisor can help you open those doors. by working with you on a retirement-income plan designed to balance growth and guaranteed income. because doors were meant to be opened. covid is still out there, and so are you.
and you could be out there with fading protection but an updated vaccine restores your protection so you can keep doing you. dad, we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. yay! we got this. we got this! life is for living. we got this! let's partner for all of it. edward jones lomita feed is 101 years old.
charles: all right, folks, we're sort of in a holding pattern. this is about where we were before president biden started speaking, maybe just a little bit lower. all the major indices including a couple of benchmarks are right at key numbers. if we look at oil, every i'm the it hit $80, it's been waffling a little. keep watching oil, that's a global indicator about demand. the 10-year is inching higher, and keep an eye on the russell 2000. i still think there's opportunities there, right, liz? liz: it was the only one that's been up, granted only by 1 point, but, hey, charles, you see that the founder of the wall street bets reddit room has filed suit? charles: i saw that yesterday, what's going on?
IN COLLECTIONSFOX Business Television Archive Television Archive News Search Service
Uploaded by TV Archive on