tv Varney Company FOX Business March 16, 2023 9:00am-10:01am EDT
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contained, is my money safe? swiss national bank rise with $54 billion lifeline. bailout back topical call it what you will but it has stabilized credit swiss stock and appears to have stored some confidence to european banks. over here, there's more pressure on the wobbly regional banks. first republic, pac? , lester lions, all down again and premarket trading. first republic reviewing its options including what might be a sale. one of the monies in the make steps in. it brought out as phoebe's british operation. on the market this morning, let's check interest rates. the yield on the ten year treasury living down again well below three and half%, 342 to be precise. the two year yield well below 4%, looking at 390. it's a flight to safety, yes and response to what looks like a
slowing economy. stocks, little changed this morning. now up 100, nasdaq down five. s&p down 12. that much movement thus far. back to $67 a barrel this morning, another son of a slowing economy. gas prices holding at the national average of 346. a year ago it was 430 with oil below $70, expect gas to come down more and pretty soon, too. politics, sharp edged editorial in the "wall street journal" points of the split in the republican party under the florida governor suggested ever cheat on healthy ukraine, the journey because it desantis first big mistake. president zelenskyy invited governor desantis to govern ukraine. vice president harris delivers another word salad to stephen colbert when she comes up to the studio she's greeted with protesters shouting walker up.
we will show you her husband from a second gentleman douglas defending her against what he calls hate. a russian jet dumping fuel over u.s. drone a deliberate attack on u.s. military. they will get the down drone, what will we do? a big show and it's thursday march 16, 2023. varney & co. is about to begin. ♪ ♪ i do like this is a song to start the show. isn't that what we do? i should be walking onto the set and dancing as i go. the producers have a fit. let's start with credit suisse,
big one of the day. they were thrown a lifeline from the swish national bank and lauren is going to take a straight. >> $54 billion lifeline for the bank. okay, statement of confidence, the move reassures some investors but doesn't mean customers will withdraw their money anyway. fifteen minutes from now, the european central bank tell us how they perceive all of this. credit suisse shares are up, there are fears of who's next? first republic? strategic options including sale and fitch cut their credit ratings to junk on the bank. now fdic's set a deadline tomorrow for a bid for both svb and signature bank. stuart: market watch of the morning, the u.s. took action on svb, swiss central bank took
action on credit suisse, the baking crisis been contained either over there or here? >> it's in the process of being contained. the one thing that bothers me as an investor in this is what i told my subscribers is we don't zach leno how it's contained because so much of this is happening behind closed doors. i'm not thrilled admittedly with the way fdic's got involved with signature bank. one minute was trading, the next minute talk was halted, no idea why. it took several hours to explain it. i don't like to see that happen. that's the one thing that gives me cause for pause. there are some things we can buy and i've identified them, bankamerica, j.p. morgan but as far as other banks where we don't know the outcome whether it first republic, western alliance, etc., you just set them aside. stuart: but you aren't going to the big banks? >> i just -- i published my investment letter every sunday morning and sent a note yesterday saying is can't wait until sunday, too important to talk about so i talked about the names and specifically i named bankamerica is one i'm willing to buy and i identify several
metrics give me comfort. by the way, if you look at nonperforming loans across the banking loans, it's for ten several%. bank of america is lower, they have good loan quality thank america and plenty of cash. as a direct result of silicon valley bank closing, they've got $15 billion of assets coming in so there are places you can go to be comfortable but marginal banks leave them alone. stuart: we hear a lot about moving into big banks, that's the place to be. adam, thank you for being here. goldman sachs cutting forecast for the economy. they are saying less growth, is because of what been going on with regional banks? >> yes, small and medium-sized banks, they will end less money as much as 40% less and that's why they lower gross forecast to 1.2% for all of 2023. the economy goes through consumption and leverage and enables that consumption but at the end of gdp now put out there
forecast for first quarter, gdp, 3.2%. stuart: that's a difference. >> a big difference. stuart: first quarter versus the whole year. would you retreat for got a low growth year? >> no. you could probably have guessed that, on the eternal optimist but this is when bombs are made. i was talking to an investor, runs their proprietary money, money for the japanese bank. he said we are in bottom finding time and i agree. this is when bombs are made and it's hard to go out and buy stocks at times like this. stuart: a strong stomach, who you really do. >> i've been working out at or a.m. for two weeks because of it. stuart: i wake up at 2:30 a.m. >> i'm just trying to survive. this is when bombs are made. stuart: it's an editorial in the "wall street journal", ron desantis first big mistake. before governor boys with trump
you retreat on ukraine. ali hemingway is here. you think his views on ukraine are a mistake? >> it's audit to complain he sounds trump in his views on foreign policy since foreign policy was one of president tom's greatest successes. the first president in decades to market the u.s. involved in a costly new work yet minding american business hard with military strikes or economic warfare so if you want to follow any recent republican leader, that's the one you want to follow. also, there's reason to believe it matches what americans want and republican voters in particular. republican voters love a strong military used properly. they do not love that d2 are in two this intervention are policy we saw from this until trump. it's a deviation from foreign
policy which believes in strong defense but not unnecessary intervention. stuart: governor desantis is known for clashing with the media, watch this. >> excuse me, excuse me. you just said what has gone wrong? i'm answering. are you going to ask a question? >> does it say that in the bill? does it say that in the bill? i'm asking you to tell me what's in the bill because you are pushing false narratives. >> as was said lacks response to the storm so far. >> give me a break, nonsense. stop politicizing. stuart: a feisty guy. axios reporter stopped calling the desantis press release propaganda. the reporter was quickly fired. you said corporate media works against the average american. should more politicians follow governor desantis' lead? >> for decades you've had conservatives complain about
bias treatment by the media but after decades of going through that, there needs to be a stronger response. many people in the corporate press are activists, the axios reporter messed up by being a little too honest about what an activist he was but so many reporters are that way and there's no reason why republicans or conservatives need to allow themselves to be treated like second-class citizens by the corporate press so the real shocking thing isn't that ron desantis is treating them like they are as political activists, it's so many other republicans don't do that and allow themselves to be mistreated and mishandled. republican voters are not looking for any more quiescence to put corrupt began to press. stuart: thank you, see you again soon. still on the centers, he dominates, doesn't he? he received endorsement from atop the publican, congressman
chip roy from texas. why is chip roy back in the government before he's even declared his candidacy? >> that's a good question, i don't have the answer but i can tell you he appears to be the first house republican to publicly endorse desantis. e-mail supporters time for younger but proven leadership, he cited florida's success to offer america eight solid years of transformational change and he wants desantis to be that change. is like this shadow republican primary that's going on. desantis announcing trying to figure out how he can get some trump supporters to his side, hence that's my read of the ukraine situation and go all in on the culture wars. stuart: shadow republican primary. interesting. look at futures. thursday morning, march 16 and we are going down, not that much in the early bell, up by 120 on the dow. coming up, kamala harris second gentleman doug invoked the holocaust is talking about the
divide at school board meetings. watch this. >> that one woman saved in the holocaust in germany settled in ukraine and now refugee again in berlin. hate is interconnected. going to school meeting, you see the hate at the. stuart: we are going to follow up on that, an important subject. treasury secretary yellen will be on capitol hill this mor morning, shelby question about the bailout and biden's spending budget. wisconsin ron johnson will be there putting questions and he'll be on our show minutes from now. ♪
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(soft music) ♪ 37 degrees right there. we just taken a turn to the south and a little bit. the news is, european central bank ecb hiked rates by 50 basis points. if they do that and clearly serious about backstopping the banking industry, assent our stocks on the downside. not by much but the dow is up 185 points at this time. forty minutes from now, treasury secretary yellen testifies on the hill, the hearing was supposed to be about president biden's budget. edward lawrence with us, silicon valley bank, that will be heavily featured as well. >> it's going to be the first thing out of her mouth she'll talk about the failed banks,
she'll testify in the room behind me. she will also say the deposits will be there when customers want them and the banking system remains strong. treasury official is telling me she's been in close contact with the white house federal reserve over the past week and administration source familiar with the review of what happened that the u.s. officials signs of stabilization of deposit flows. the secretary will field questions from republican senators asking if the administration's policies leading to high inflation caused the collapse, the ceo of a tech firm toggle believes it was rate hikes that directly led to the run on bags. >> when you raise interest rates quickly things start to break so there was an element of surprise when you look at how much these unrecognized losses in the system amounted to because of interest rates rising, 620 billion across the entire banking system which is a big amount of money.
>> democrats are saying it is the federal reserve that needs a closer look. >> can't do this analysis without putting the fed under the microscope, too. did they have regulatory power they didn't use? that's got to be a question. i think there were regulatory powers over the banks of this size even under the revised, why not? >> secretary will also talk about the president's budget, she will defend tax hikes in there as well as the spending and argue the president needs time to finish the job. stuart: thank you very much indeed. senator ron johnson joins me now. mr. senator, you will be rationed -- i'm sorry, treasury secretary today, do you approve of the sp be bank stop? >> we certainly want to prevent the contagion but i don't think the fed and treasury handles
probably but if you look at the budget, it increases taxes dramatically increases spending deficits, there's a lot to hate and what president biden is proposing here and honestly if you want to blame people for the bank failures, try and put the finger blame him somebody, look at members of congress who routinely voted for this deficit spending, that's the root cause, deficit spending, it sparked inflation, devalue the bonds, that would cause us banking crisis as well. stuart: do you think you can stop all of this spending by action in the house and senate? can you push it back and get rid of it? republicans don't want this massive trillions and trillions of dollars of spending. >> we can certainly resist and we are looking for and we are talking in the house, i appreciate what the house freedom caucus has done, you need to use the debt ceiling
for the purpose it was designed. need to -- if you increase the debt ceiling, you have to attach to it physical controls like preventing government shutdown act, preventing default act, you have to put things in place to restrain future spending and then returned to regular order, bring up individual appropriations bills to be debated and put restraint on that as well but you've got a big spending president and senate and unfortunately there too many republican's who like to spend taxpayer money as we well. stuart: treasury secretary yellen was wrong on inflation in the past. now she's saying is huge spending will not create a lot of inflation in the future. do you agree? >> she's completely wrong completely wrong. inflation is easy to define, too many dollars chasing too few goods so now the fed's policy is trying to harm the economy which will reduce the number of goods available for all the dollars printing, they
will be chasing so is easy to define, $32 trillion in debt no end in sight. what's going and when the president says his budget reduced deficit, plaster the deficit was 1.3 trillion, this year 1.5. he's projecting 1.8. where's the deficit reduction? it's absurd, they liked the american public. stuart: forgive me for asking about football which i know very little, i'm told aaron rodgers lead wisconsin green bay packers and head toward the new york jets. do you have an opinion on that? >> i enjoyed watching aaron rodgers play but if he's not committed to your team, i guess it's time frame to move on, it's sad but that's what happens in football. stuart: okay, that's it. senator ron johnson, republican, thanks for being with us. have a good day.
we got a new survey that shows optimism rising among ceos. however, this was done before the banking crisis. >> a business roundtable between february 8 and march 8. anything above 50 is expanding among we are at 79 and the average it long-term average is 84 but will be up, things are okay. that's the message, before the banking crisis. the ceos set expectations for hiring and sales in the next six months edged up so i'd like to say while this is somewhat old, we are not in freefall, not a 2008 sort of moment but nobody knows so there is tension. stuart: a little bit but they are looking more optimistic. >> and the housing data this morning permits almost 14% and that could get even better as rates go down. stuart: look at the market heading south after the european central bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points.
4%, yield on ten year treasury and the two-year so well below 4% level, two years now at 394. not much fallout in interest rates from the european move but look at stocks, they are heading south. perhaps because if the europeans raised 50 basis points, maybe the fed will have to do the same thing hence our stocks go down. that's my explanation. tech guy ray with us, i want to talk about chat gpt for. how do i invest in it? is made a big splash recently.
>> yeah, it launched march 13, it's not a language model, it's a multi- model, take a picture and recognize you got taking stuff in the back, juan mark, what's in the background and how you take advantage right now is different companies are applying api, using it to connect to the model and start doing searches, algorithms and learn language models so for example, if you use microsoft, using chat gpt four. connor economy and chat gpt four and more companies will adopt this. the difference between chat and the old version, it's simple, it's smarter. he is 80, if he took it in the math section, it's got 700 versus 35, it took the bar exam and was the top 10% versus bottom 10% so much more, much better and more improved. stuart: have you used it? if so, did it work well for you? >> it does work well in
hands-on, answer your question, we are experiment in, you can do it on the plus prescription. the difference is the models are little more active but still a lot of training, this is early days in ai because a lot can go wrong. they can hallucinate, a monk is excited because chat gpt said i graduated from harvard but i didn't, i wrote a book for harvard business press those little things like that you have to get right. >> take it the. stuart: my mom got university confused as well but that's a different story. fifteen seconds, what's the best stock to invest in if you want to invest in ai? >> google, microsoft and a company called c3 ai. stuart: all right, we got it. thank you, opening bell is ringing. the market is just after 9:30 a.m. thursday morning. by the way, notice kilts and bagpipes, you notice that? it is st. patrick's day tomorrow.
nyc st. patrick's day parade. got it. i might not be there. >> $150,000 people. stuart: dow industrial open on the downside, up a half percentage., 177 points. a lot of losers on the big board, down 30, not that many winners. s&p 500, early going, down about half percentage. the nasdaq composite opening lower, not by one, one third of 1%. let's look at big tech, where are we with that group with all the money? meta- platforms is up, alphabet is up, microsoft, amazon and apple are down a little faction. another look at credit suites, a lifeline from switzerland national bank. did it work? >> for now, yes. public show of support from the swiss national bank, credit suites shares down to present.
up digit double digits today. the problems are not new but systematically they are important, not a regional bank like svb in silicon valley. the other thing is, they went 50. they obviously don't think this situation at credit suites is that extreme they felt confident enough to go 50, just my opinion. also wanted to bring attention to a report the treasury department is reviewing our financial sector's exposure to credit suisse. stuart: the europeans decision on interest rates could affect our feds decisions if they go 50, maybe we could go to 25. >> maybe that won't be such a good big deal. but if they pause, the market could say what you know that we don't? is the banking situation so bad you didn't move at all? stuart: good one. here we are watching again. let's get away from the fed. let's look at dollar general,
down one and a quarter%. >> the expectations rose about 6%, their outlook was disappointing. this is the trend. you are going and buying the necessities, soap from the dollar stores, not discretionary items. they also blamed bad weather in december. stuart: a chat gpt version of their own, got some problems. >> they had his splashy debut in beijing and used a prerecorded video of their earning bought, that's what they call their chat gpt. why is it a big deal? we want to see the real live thing and action. it's supposed to be great, this is chinese -- china's first contender to chat gpt. they have about 30,000 clients on the waitlist but investors and people want to see how it worked. stuart: it wasn't a live shot.
let's look at adobe, they reported yesterday but gaining 4%, must've been a good report. >> this is the software company behind photoshop, better-than-expected revenue. the reason there is a big demand for content creation photoshop for digital means. i call it recession proof but the report showed that seven analysts at least hike price target today and average is $40 above where we are now. 388. stuart: a nice rally. tell me about version orbit, they are in deep trouble. >> remember the failed rocket launch in january in the uk? embarrassing the costly and now the company is furloughing almost every single employee starting today and lasting for at least a week. we'll get an update next week, trying to buy time so they can buy a financial way. the employees will not be paid for the week.
all operations pause. stuart: elon musk is winning the space area. >> jeff bezos is more space tourism. stuart: i think so. more his thing. 9:34 a.m., open for four and a half minutes, the dow is down 200 and early going, .6%. look at the dow winners, there are some. we have at the top of the list, intel gaining ground, procter & gamble, mcdonald's is on the list. s&p 500, where is it that this money? the index is down but we got adobe as the top performer of all s&p 500, up four and a half%. nasdaq composite, adobe at the top, intel features again. there we go again, cyber security company is a double paid table, it is up again. check the ten year treasury, very important. guilt is down to 3.39%, drop to
340. price of gold moving up again, 1932 announced. first time we've checked bitcoin, 24/7 is your price. oil, very important for the future price of gas. down to $66 a barrel as we speak. nap gas 247 million, not much movement. the average price for a gallon of regular is 3.46. i predict it's going down sharply soon. california, 4.88. i predict it will stay just about there. coming up, take a look at this, all that quote we need a new word, dominic wrote that and i will ask him what the new word should be. kamala harris did not get a warm welcome in new york city. watch this. stuart: a soft interview, vice
the markets are heading south but not that much. now of 170, nasdaq down 24. let's get back to the banks. susan is back with us, is the silicon valley collapse a canary in the coal mine the broader industry? >> that's a quote from the billionaire founder of bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund. echoed by black box larry fink yesterday in his letter and he says there could be a third dominic cracks in the financial
system, or banks could fail. top of the hour we will hear from janet yellen, she'll be in her senate testimony, she will a short americans can feel confident that deposits will be there when they need them. she says this week's actions demonstrate our commitment to ensure depositors, all depositor savings remain safe. i've been asked several times and i'm sure you have by viewers at their money is safe in the bank and the answer is yes. yellen will also mention that, it's not a bailout, not taxpayer funds used to guarantee pause deposits as signature bank, it was a banking insurance fund from the fdic that banks contribute to. on the market action regional banks under pressure first republic has been altered on volatility, down 35% at the open and lost around $17 billion in total market value stemming from the silicon valley collapse cut status by
s&p and also could be up for sale according to bloomberg report. you also have international banking concerns, credit suites giving the $54 billion lifeline for the swiss central bank selling off of the bonds to raise cash but i think ecb, the fact that they went ahead to raise interest rates by 50 basis points and an indication is another 15 basis points hike in the summer months july, it indicates to the market that looks like the federal reserve will be forced to raise interest rates at least 25 basis points next week, possibly even 50 and you look at the terminal rates, heels right now ten year yields dropped nine basis points, the terminal rate is still under 4%. we could get rate cuts by the end of this year to shore up the banking industry which is positive for the stocks but
right now there's concerns about regional lenders and backstops. stuart: this could be a time when the regional banks which are in trouble, first republic for example gets sold to the big banks, a lot of people are predicting. >> too big to fail, it gets even bigger and is not a concern for the average consumer? figure deposits might not get the services and interest, your money might be worth less if there are four big banks not funding for competition. stuart: that's the way the world works. big banks will get your like it or not. that's what came out of 2000 and i hate to make forecast like that. hate to do that. >> i like to have the forecast. stuart: see you later. market watch of the morning, octavio joins us now. welcome to the show. u.s. took action against svb, swiss central bank against credit suites, has the banking crisis been contained over there and over here?
>> i think for the short term for individual banks, yes. the fed did step up and put a backstop not just svb but the banking sector basically saying it will lend your gains to value and make sure you don't have liquidity crisis. the problem is it delays the inevitable, pushed down maybe a year or longer until the banks have to repay the fed the money they've been lent they will not be able to cover so still a problem in the sense that the banks have a hole in their ballot sheets, securities the box are worthless. the only thing that will save that is bringing interest rates really back down hard. they are stuck in a corner, they can't do because of inflation, the need to fight inflation so ordinarily central banks would step in,/interest rates and save the banking sector. their hands are tied, they have to fight simultaneously, uncomfortable situation for them to begin. stuart: if they keep fighting
inflation as you suggest and raise interest, talk about the fed next week, that will push the economy into recession, yes? >> absolutely, i think there's a lot of businesses that have become dependent on this sheet money and now they are starting to unravel it is either consciously or unconsciously in the business market, access to low money and cheat low interest rates. some business models have to break including some banks that become dependent on this as well so there has to be some breakage because some are dependent on it. stuart: what about this trend toward smaller regional banks in trouble being bought out by the big banks? is that the trend we will see? >> i think you're right that would make sense. in the uk we saw bios silicon valley, the uk operations so that happened there. in 2008 as you pointed out, they stepped up it was bought
by j.p. morgan so we did see that but the biden administration blocked it recently so they basically said we don't want to go forward with that so recently they blocked state street merging and bank of montréal was in the u.s. and they walked that saying it would be too much concentration. bank of montréal is not one of the top ten in the u.s. so it's hard to see how that would lead to concentration so it's clear in the u.s. they don't like concentration at least a few weeks ago so i don't know how they will square that circle but you are right, that's probably what needs to happen, smaller banks need to be bought by larger banks and extended to them saying you won't take losses by requiring focuses. stuart: i'm always asked by viewers and people on the street frankly, is my money safe and a bank deposit in the united states? how would you answer? >> if you are to be $2000, yes.
it is safe. if you are above that, it's a question. they have backstopped svb but will they be able to in the future? i don't know. stuart: honest answer. thank you very much. appreciate you being here. calls for independent investigation of svb. elizabeth warren does not want fed chair powell involved. >> she doesn't like him, she says recuse yourself. >> for this review to have any credibility at all, chair powell has to recuse himself. he is the one who not only presided over the fed and it's important while we examine what went wrong about that chair powell take a step back and let michael bar, the new vice chair not there during all of this, let him conduct an independent investigation. thus the only way we can have confidence in it.
>> michael bar is conducting an independent investigation. senator warren want a criminal investigation into what went wrong and she wants our repeal of the trump era rollbacks on the banks but there are other lawmakers, both sides of the aisle calling for outside independent investigation into the collapse in addition to what michael bar is doing. stuart: socialist government i think they didn't hate. that's the way it is. thanks, i think you are done. >> conflict of interest here is the ceo of svb was on the board of the san francisco fed supposed to be regulating his bag. stuart: that's worth looking at. coming up, sports book now live in massachusetts just in time for march madness. a good friend of the show, dave, he will be here. we have operational control of the border.
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border patrol chief role of trees as far as the u.s. does not have operational control of our border. mark meredith at the white house. isn't that the exact opposite of what we heard from secretary mayorkas? >> the secretary said has been an ongoing discussion he believes the border is secure but the testimony we heard from yesterday certainly indication of what the border patrol is facing. the white house calling his hearing in texas nothing more than a partisan game but the lawmakers chairing the committee said it should be outrage and all the americans, this is video of the hearing yesterday, the chairman of the home and security blasting the biden administration but also specifically calling out, ticketing secretary ali hundred mayorkas.
>> the failure to southern border is not about money or numbers and border patrol agents, not about technology, this crisis, this human tragedy is a result of decisions and incompetence of the secretary. >> the nation's border patrol chief telling lawmakers agents do need help coming from washington and lack of deterrence encouraged many migrants to cross into the u.s. illegally. he argued the decision to remove some border wall fencing and infrastructure was all about politics, not national security. >> i do not believe see to shining sea but i do believe in infrastructure and very systems and concentrated especially urban areas. we tore down infra structure in some areas we should have left alone. a perfect example of a. >> we are hearing pushback from the department of homeland security this is despite a dismantled immigration system facing unprecedented migration, affecting nations across the western hemisphere, this administration has surged resources to the border and what is interesting is it's supposed to be bipartisan at the start : democrats were
invited. they decided to pull out of the hearing and to give an idea how nasty the fight continues to be in washington, some house republicans want to pass a law that would ban secretary mayorkas music government aircraft, private jets and until the border is secure. stuart: turning ugly. thank you very much. back to the markets, we still have about the downside, now 200 points, that's where the big loss is. s&p and nasdaq down. ten year treasury yield has been moving lower, down to 3 3.42%. how about the two-year? also year moving lower but 391. check out regional banks, some are still in trouble, i've got back west and western alliance down double digits and first republic which may be for sale down 29%. still ahead, brett baier, doctor marty makary, attorney general austin newton and dave,
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