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tv   The Journal Editorial Report  FOX News  January 3, 2015 11:00am-11:31am PST

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get a $15 gift card when you buy $75 in hp ink or any hp toner multipack. office depot & officemax. gear up for great. this week on "the journal editorial report" from washington to wall street and around the world the stories to watch in 2015 as the presidential field begins to take shape, will hillary clinton see a challenge from the left? will the front-runner emerge from the republican? will president obama cut a nuclear deal with iran and will vladimir putin push back as the pressure builds from home. is this a breakout year for the american economy or will new regulations keep the boom at bay? welcome to "the journal editorial report." as we look at the stories to watch in 2015 joining our first
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panel of the new year is wall street journal columnist dan henninger, assistant editor james freeman and joe rago. let's start here at home where the new year means new speculation about the 2016 presidential field. who might knock hillary clinton from her perch as the democratic front-runner. i know this is one story you're following. >> well, sure, the big story for 2015, the 2016 presidential race. people will want to jump into it. the hillary clinton, the thing to watch i think hillary will get into two scorpions in a bottle with the democratic left. they own that party. they hate bill and hillary clinton but really have nowhere else to go. i think hillary will spend 2015 signing a blood oath to follow the democrats agenda and i don't think elizabeth warren will challenge her. i have a real dark horse who's going to lean in eventually, california governor jerry brown.
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>> he ran against bill clinton believe it or not in 1992 but i don't think anybody can beat her for the nomination, unless she stumbles more than i think she will, other than elizabeth warren. >> i think the opportunity will be too much for her to pass up. these windows don't come along very often. i've been thinking for a while that given how barack obama has moved that party to the left particularly the activists who vote in primary, that's more an elizabeth warren than a hillary clinton party -- >> wait a minute, hillary clinton then has to adopt the policies of elizabeth warren and you think she will? >> we've already seen her trying to do that disastrously when she suggested that businesses don't create any jobs. i think this is going to be a tough challenge for her trying to claim the benefits of the clinton '90s but define herself
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with the new party. >> let's turn to republicans and we'll talk about this during the course of the year no question about it joe. the question in my mind can anyone break up from the pack. there's no clear front-runner unlike the democrats on the republican side right now. >> i don't think there is. the person who will break out will be the one that lays out an agenda, has a message and addresses the problem of falling middle class incomes. we've seen them go down during the obama years. i think that's the main problem in u.s. politics right now. and i think the candidate that will resonate is the one that has a response to generate that growth again. >> and george bush -- not george bush, jeb bush, the former governor of florida, can he -- how many people will he clear out of the field? probably mitt romney doesn't run if jeb does and maybe markco
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rubio stays out? >> you need about a billion dollars to run for president. if jeb gets in i think a lot of money will flow his way. there's a lot of new money in politics now and some of them i think will support scott walker and john kasich the question is whether jeb will ultimately draw all the money into his campaign. >> the new republican congress what do you expect out of them? >> this really is a kind of put up or shut up people. they asked the american people to give them control of the legislature. president obama is still in the white house, they won't be able to repeal obamacare, but they have to show in the first six months of next year a serious effort to put out a reasonable budget to start to turn the ship as much as they can away from this $18 trillion debt spending cycle. and also, say no to corporate
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welfare, that's another test -- >> first thing they have to work with democrats and get together on things like the keystone pipe line and other things and discreet bills that are bipartisan. then they've got to put their own budgeted to, unified enough to put their own budget together, no guarantee that the impulses that they have that we want to say oppose everything and some of the folks who are running for president will play to primaries and that could undermine the republicans. >> they need a coherent message that carries into 2016. but also need to show some progress forcing barack obama to accept little smaller government than he would like. >> all right finally, we're going to have on the domestic front a big supreme court decision on obamacare another one that will challenge the federal -- subsidies for obama care delivered through the federal exchanges. >> this is king versus burwell,
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it is going to be heard by march decided by june. we're potentially heading into a big period of health care policy change. this decision might reopen the law -- i think the justices on the court are increasingly assertive about vindicating the rule. as opposed to executive overreach -- >> exactly. >> what they might do is toss this into congress saying here's this problem you created you passed a bad law. now the political branches can fix it. it's going to be up to the republicans i think incumbent on the republicans to offer a pragmatic alternative to try to increase confidence that this won't be too disruptive. >> they need an agenda. much more ahead as we preview the stories to watch in 2015. we'll turn to challenges across
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the globe when we come back.
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welcome back as we look ahead for the stories to watch in 2015 we're back with dan henninger and joe rago let's turn to events around the world and certainly one of the big questions will be whether president obama cuts a nuclear deal with iran. >> it's in his head therefore he'll do it -- >> he will? >> he did iraq afghanistan waved his hand towards cuba, he'll do iran. it will be a bad deal, iranians are not negotiating in good faith. more seriously, this will tremendously destabilize the middle east because saudi arabia and turkey and egypt will think they have to approach the nuclear threshold. it will turn the middle east
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into a nuclear powder keg -- the majority in the senate to force obama to submit that agreement to the senate. >> but the president is also counting on a new arrangement with iran to be able to counter isis and he'll try to sell this as a -- >> that will further destabilize the area because the saudis completely distrust. how they are going to assemble a coalition on the side of the iranians is almost impossible to conceive. >> you think he'll do whatever it takes to get a deal. in my mind, i agree with you the president really wants the deal. let's turn to what i think 2014 was the year that jihadists come back, not just with islamic state but africa and elsewhere.
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is this going to be the year of the counter attack when we begin to move back on the offensive against islamic state? >> well, we're starting to see progress. if you think just six months ago you had islamic state coming down from syria, taking mosul almost launching assault on baghdad, potentially attacks on saudi arabia and jordan, now we're starting to see progress. this month i sat down with general john allen who's a marine general who has come out of retirement to lead a global coalition against islamic state. he's built about 60 members into this that are fighting back. and so we're starting to see the emergence of a strategy only six months ago again the president said, we don't know what we're doing. now i think there's more of a coherent answer. >> and dan, what do you think? is this going to be something that -- >> i have a lot of faith in general allen but it really
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depends heavily again on president obama and whether he will sustain interest in it. if his interest wains it's going to be thumbs in the duke until we get a new president. >> the other actor on the march, vladimir putin taking territory in ukraine and becoming a problem for the world. at the end of the year the run on the ruble and crash of oil prices and his economy is in trouble. how does putin respond to all of those ddynamics? >> one thing we can be certain of he won't be conciliatory about somethinganything, in fact his recipe for boosting his popularity is to raise the specter of nationalism and get people rallying around the flag, requiring him to be more aggressive -- >> you think he's going -- in order to deflect attention at
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home, from his troubles on the economy, we have to be worried that he may try to do more and not just in ukraine? >> for sure. i don't think that he will -- i'm not sure that he will actually make the move but for sure he'll rach et up the rhetoric. and he'll combine that with more repression at home because he also has the problem of rising inflation, inflation a year ago was 6.5%, now 11.4%. he's got a problem with the ruble, which is falling and the only way he has to defend it is intervening by the central bank because the interest rates are already 17%, the overnight rates. if he keeps raising those the economy is going to get weaker and weaker. he'll have to defend, try to defend the ruble with reserve. less than $400 billion now and he will try to use increased repression against -- >> briefly, back to isis, do you
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think this is the year we're going to see iraq and the kurds with the u.s. help mount an offensive to retake the major cities, including mosul. >> i think they will they are planning one for the spring. the big question about iraq can you defeat isis with a failed state next door syria. otherwise the disorder might continue to spill over and we haven't seen a strategy for dealing with the assad regime. >> that's right. thanks. much more to come as we look at the stories to watch in 2015. will this be a breakout year for the u.s. economy? or do new threats loom? [ narrator ] mama sherman and the legion of super fans. wow! [ narrator ] on a mission to get richard to his campbell's chunky soup. it's new chunky beer-n-cheese with beef and bacon soup. i love it. and mama loves you. ♪ ♪
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welcome back to the journal editorial report. as we look at the stories to watch in 2015 and what president obama hopes will be a breakout year for the american economy. so is the boom finally here? we've been waiting five and a half since the recovery began and it's been really slow growth. is this the breakout year? >> well, paul, i think we're in a sweet spot but like a lot of our diets these day, it's low sugar. we're not getting this 4 or 5% that people i think imply when they say breakout year. i do think we'll have a fairly sound economy this year but i think getting to 3% is going to be a struggle, probably high 2, something like that. >> we have low oil prices, fallen about 40%, 50%. we've got king dollar, the dollar is strong capital flowing back into the united states. and we've got in congress a
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republican congress pro growth bias for a change, we're not going to get higher taxes i would assume and we might even get spending restraint and some of the dismantling of some of the anti-growth elements that we've had in the previous years. so that would suggest optimism. >> i think on the last point you do need the president's cooperation and i think that's going to be a problem. you know, there are a lot of distortions in this economy that are caused by both the fact that the fed has kept interest rates at zero for so long. expanded the balance sheet and also a lot of the regular tri environment that people operate in. it's a credit to american business that they've been able to do as well as they have. but let's remember this is happening largely in the big corporate sector and small businesses and favors are still struggling and that's where you have job growth. that's where until you get that, you're not going to see really serious wage gain. i think that's going to con strain the growth more than people are expecting right now.
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>> speaking of regulation dan, you've been watching a story here about the federal government trying to assert itself in its control over oil and gas drilling. >> yes barack obama i know i'm sounding like a tape loop here but this is in barack obama's head. all right. ever since he became president in 2009 been giving speeches saying i want to promote solar power and wind power. now, he's already had the epa crack down on the coal industry in this country. next he's going to move on oil and gas drilling through the epa, the method is going to be the regulation of methane, a byproduct of oil and gas drilling. >> goes off when it drills. >> and if they directly start to regulate that it's going to raise cost for the gas and oil industry at a time when prices are down. the most interesting thing here will be the political implications, a lot of country that depends on the energy sector, his calculation is he's
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lost the south this is mainly texas and north dakota. he doesn't care. i don't believe democrats in congress will agree with that. >> let me double down with you, not just methane but try through water, claiming that there's water damage water pollution, water table through drilling and try to get into the regulation for that. they don't have the authority right now and that's why they don't control. the states regulate and have done so quite successfully without any real evidence of pollution. how are they going to get away with that given the record? >> i think they are going to have a hard time getting away with it. there will be pushback in congress and lawsuits will be filed and this could slow the epa from carrying out these -- >> one other big, big potential story james is regulating the internet for the first time in a systemic way as a public utility. >> it's scary and it's really -- if you want to be optimistic about the economy and cheap gas, the u.s. economy starting to grow again this is another downer that makes you think this
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could be a rough year. really potentially historic mistake. we talk about a lot of policies but the internet, basically clinton and bush policy success allowing it to grow and thrive and the president wants to apply to it the monopoly telephone rules from the communications act of 1934. if that sounds too anty kuwaited. they were written for the acts in 181887, it's setting prices and bureaucrats running products -- >> this is supposed to be a decision by the federal communications commission, which supposedly is an independent agency. >> that's what we've been told. the president pressuring them very strongly and i'm worried -- >> publicly. >> and i'm worried they may cave and it's going to be up to the republican congress to cut off funding to the fcc to look for a legislative solution if they go this disastrous step. it's very hard to stop them if
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they decide to go with it. you cut off funding but that's -- >> i think the fcc is in a dangerous spot. people in congress might wonder whether you need them at all. >> all right jamgzes thank you. our panel's picks for the people to watch in 2015.
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time for our hits and misses, our panels picks for the people to watch in 2015. dan? >> well, paul the world was horrified this december when the taliban murdered 130 school children in peshawar in pakistan. i think people to watch is the leadership of pakistan including prime minister sharif who are talking to the new prime minister of afghanistan about getting together to finally root
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out the taliban in northern pakistan. this is where 9/11 began. it would be a very hopeful thing if they could actually go in there and start to root out and eliminate the taliban. >> joe? >> my person to watch is paul ryan who continues to be one of the most consequential politicians in washington. one area in particular this year he's taking other the tax writing, ways and means committee. i think there might be more consensus on tax reform than the media let's on -- >> corporate tax reform. >> corporate tax reform in particular. i think the white house wants the economy to grow. they'll find a willing partner in mr. ryan. >> mary? >> i'm watching supreme court justice ruth badder ginsburg she's 81, will be 82 in march and very left wing. i think it's possible she'll step down this year because if she does that gives president obama a chance to nominate someone with similar politics for her seat.
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if she waits, and a republican takes office in 2016, that makes it more difficult. >> all right, james? >> pope francis is the person i think we ought to be watching this year. we might find out more about who he is. it's been a bit of a mystery when he was a cardinal, he seemed to have generated all of the right enemies among lefty dictators in south america as i learned from reading mary's columns, but since he's been pope he's made a lot of bizarre statements on the economy. some of this appears to be a move to the left, it's a result of selective quotation in the media. i think this year we may get a better sense of who he is and what the agenda is. >> my personal stanley fisher obscure, voice chairman of the federal reserve, more than janet yellen has credibility in financial markets and will be a crucial voice at the fed in determining when and how fast the federal reserve raises interest rates. so we'll watch him. that's it for this week's show. thanks to my panel and all of
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you for watching i'm paul gigot, we hope to see you right here next week. an amazing story of survival, a 7-year-old girl in kentucky miraculously walking away from a plane crash. four of her family members on board were killed. the faa says the small plane reported engine trouble and minutes later lost contact with air traffic control. hello, welcome to "america's news headquarters. >> we're learning now that 30 minutes after the tragic crash the young girl was able to walk away, kept her compose you're and find help on her own by knocking on a door. will carr is live in los angeles with the latest on


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