Skip to main content

tv   The Briefing with Tom Harwood  GB News  February 2, 2023 9:30am-10:01am GMT

9:30 am
explore that. what future legacy might be and also that expected interest rate rise. what does it mean .7 find out after the news mean? find out after the news news . good morning. it's just
9:31 am
news. good morning. it's just got 930 i'm rhiannon jones in the gb newsroom, interest rates are expected to rise from 3.5 to 4% later as the bank of england makes its 10th increase in a row. it's part of efforts to control inflation and bring it back down to the banks. percent target some experts predict we could see a final hike next month with interest peaking at 4.5. it economics commentator laurie laird explains and how the rise will affect us. anyone who has any debt credit or any credit card debt, a lot of us credit card debt, a lot of us credit card debt and every is keyed off. what's called bank rate. it goes all way through the system and it tends to be we do see consumer interest rates on mortgage rates, credit card debt. we tend to see that go up pretty quickly . we don't tend to pretty quickly. we don't tend to see it come down it stickier on the way down. critics after
9:32 am
minister say his first 200 days in office have been marred by tory sleaze scandal and a staggering economy. sunak's under pressure to reveal he knew about bullying allegations against dominic raab and. nadhim zahawi tax office . his time as zahawi tax office. his time as prime minister has also blighted by continued industrial action and the cost of living crisis and the cost of living crisis and staying with the cost of living crisis . 2.3 million living crisis. 2.3 million households missed an essential payment last month, including rent and credit cards. new data reveals according to which's consumer insight tracker, 59% of people had to either back on essentials sell property or dip into savings to cover spending. it's calling on essential businesses, including energy providers, to do more to help customers . and shell says its customers. and shell says its profits have increased by more than 53, with earnings of more
9:33 am
than 53, with earnings of more tha n £68 billion last year. it's than £68 billion last year. it's company's highest profit, its 150 year history. the energy giant's benefited from soaring oil prices due to russia's invasion of ukraine. it comes as continue to grapple with soaring energy costs . tv online and dab+ energy costs. tv online and dab+ radio this is gb news now is back to the briefing with tom harwood. a very good morning to you. it's 933 and this is the briefing with me, tom harwood on your tv and your radio . now, today marks and your radio. now, today marks 100 days of prime minister rishi sunak for those keeping up. that's 51 more than liz truss , that's 51 more than liz truss, where she said he should be judged on, quote, his first thousand days rather than his first 100 days in office. well what could that look like ? one
9:34 am
what could that look like? one mp who has an idea , john mp who has an idea, john penrose, who yesterday asked the prime minister this. penrose, who yesterday asked the prime minister this . mr. prime minister this. mr. speaken prime minister this. mr. speaker, two years ago, the prime commissioned me to propose 30 ways to boost growth and make britain the most competitive country in the world. so far were underway with about half of but some of the most valuable like reforming, ponderous and expensive utilities regulators or building our international lead in open banking haven't moved at all. so will he meet with me to discuss how to channel nigel lawson's and unblock the arteries of our economy with low cost through competition, supply side reforms ? prime minister. mr. speaker, the honourable friend has a long track record in advocating and implementing policies that increase our competitiveness and reform the supply side of our economy. his report fantastic and i look forward to meeting with him to discuss them further and help drive growth in this country . well a very interesting country. well a very interesting point there . the prime minister
9:35 am
point there. the prime minister agreeing to meet with john penrose and look at implementing the rest of those supply side reforms as well. what are they? well i'm delighted to be joined by john penrose live from westminster . and john, first of westminster. and john, first of all, why do you think it is that not all of your recommendations have so far been implemented ? have so far been implemented? well, i think it's fairly simple , actually. it was simply that when rishi commissioned me to do this two years ago, he was chancellor of the exchequer. he was chancellor about was then chancellor for about the next year. and we made some decent progress, as you just heard saying chamber heard me saying in the chamber yesterday. of course, yesterday. but then, of course, we a bit of a of a sort of .a we had a bit of a of a sort of .a pause last summer , and he wasn't pause last summer, and he wasn't in government, and therefore, things were momentum. so we've got to get back on track. we've got to get back on track. we've got to get back on track. we've got to reinject that energy . we got to reinject that energy. we had . and what are examples of had. and what are examples of these things that haven't yet been implemented ? but i suppose been implemented? but i suppose the big point about these 30 reforms is that they're all sort of politically possible wants
9:36 am
top of the list . well, for me at top of the list. well, for me at the two i mentioned in the chamber in that clip you just played are really , really played are really, really valuable. one is to reform some of the energy of the utility regulators just because our utility sector , not just energy, utility sector, not just energy, but others, too, telecom and water in particular and are moving pretty slowly. they're very heavily burdened by lots and lots of red tape means they can't be very customer focussed and.the can't be very customer focussed and. the prices that we're all paying and. the prices that we're all paying as a result are higher than need be, even after than they need be, even after you've allowed for people like vladimir putin invading ukraine. and other thing is there's and the other thing is there's bit of all of our called open banking , which is bit of all of our called open banking, which is a huge international success. not many people know about it, but it's an success and it's kind of an industry, the future. and if we can roll that out to apply across lots of other sectors to repeat the trick that we've already done in banking, in things like energy, retail , things like energy, in retail, in elsewhere then we can in water, elsewhere then we can have that kind of forward
9:37 am
looking international lead in lots of other industries of the future, too. well, do you say to those who say that this has been a government that's been not that enthused tastic about the supply side reform agenda, the previous prime minister listed at least ten areas of supply side reform from planning to child care to migration to everything else that it was going get on and do . it seems going get on and do. it seems like not only the tax cuts have been thrown away by this government , but also those big government, but also those big areas of seismic supply side reform . you've been here for reform. you've been here for a long. well, i was i was very, very reassured, actually, by rishi sunak's reply to me in part in prime minister's questions yesterday. he said he wants to get on with this. he wants to get on with this. he wants to get on with this. he wants to meet me and to talk about how we can take it forward. and i think, you know, to me, to be in his first hundred days, he's the hatch to an of fire fighting an awful lot of fire fighting just to steady the ship, to just settle things down, make sure that financial markets that the financial markets got to rates to normal, that interest rates were spiralling in wrong
9:38 am
were not spiralling in the wrong direction, was priority direction, and that was priority number one when he took over. now, they've done that and they've done it very successfully. now we can get back on to the more longer term, which, rightly say, are which, as you rightly say, are absolutely essential. i take absolutely essential. and i take comfort that he comfort from the fact that he was who commissioned was the bloke who commissioned me stuff the first me to write stuff in the first place. so clearly believes in place. so he clearly believes in it. wouldn't have it. otherwise he wouldn't have asked it in the first asked me to do it in the first place. now course, the prime minister's questions yesterday he you to he agreed to meet with you to discuss this further. do you have a date in your diary for when meeting be, but when that meeting will be, but not i'm afraid these not quite yet. i'm afraid these things don't work quite that fast, we've we've already fast, but we've we've already reached out and where we're in discussions with the tariff folks won't long. folks i hope it won't be long. that very, very interesting. that is very, very interesting. and before let and just finally, before i let you what you think is you go, what do you think is going be the next sort of going to be the next sort of hundred days of this prime minister how quickly do you think we're going to move from this sort of stabilising era we seem to be in right now to the real sort of through growth era, the sort of reform mr. era? what
9:39 am
are we going to see? how soon? well, i devoutly hope that we're going to move on to that really fast, not just because actually there very much money for other kinds of growth promoting things. can't it at the things. you can't do it at the moment more government moment through more government spending there's no spending because there's just no spare cash around. so kinds spare cash around. so the kinds of reforms which i was asking the prime minister about yesterday, don't cost the yesterday, which don't cost the taxpayer very much, but are really, really and help really, really valuable and help jobs and those important jobs and all those important those really are the sort of the main game, the main opportunity in town the moment. so i hope in town at the moment. so i hope he's going to get on to fast. he's going to get on to it fast. he's also said, and i think rightly, wants make rightly, that he wants to make sure that he's dealing with his five, five key priorities, five, his five key priorities, which in his new year's which he set in his new year's speech, stopping speech, things like stopping the small reduce small boats, trying to reduce nhs waiting times , reducing nhs waiting times, reducing inflation. all those matter too. but these are a way get quite a lot of those things done . so lot of those things done. so i think they kind of they kind of all work together. well, john penrose, thank you much for penrose, thank you so much for joining live from joining us there live from westminster and that the westminster and hope that the meeting the prime minister,
9:40 am
meeting with the prime minister, when come, very when it does come, goes very well. now, moving on this morning, later today, the bank england is predicted to deliver its 10th interest rate rise in a row , bringing rates to an row, bringing rates to an expected 4. this it's anticipated that this rise will go anticipated that this rise will 9° up anticipated that this rise will go up from 3.5 to 4. it would be a nought 5% rise, the highest since 2008. although let's look the international context here. yesterday the united states federal reserve raised rates to between 4.5 and 4.75, far higher than anyone's expecting the united kingdom to do well. let's break it all down now with our economics and business editor. liam halligan lim , 4% full liam halligan lim, 4% full points . what does it all mean ? points. what does it all mean? well, this would be the highest interest set by the bank of england in 14 years in the run up in the years before the pandemic. interest were well below 1% and then they went even
9:41 am
lower to a quarter of 1% during the covid period. we can see that on a graphic here. so there's the interest rates in there's the interest rates in the run up to the covid period. and then during the covid lockdown, they went to ultra levels. and then since then we've successive nine successive rises by the bank of england 3.5% where they currently are in a bid to tackle inflation. inflation is now coming down. that's why, tom, i don't think interest rates have that much further to go up. i do think we'll see what we call a 50 point rise, 0.5 percentage points to be pedantic to 4. then i think go up to about 4.25 in the spring then i think interest rates will level out and they'll start to come down actually before the end of the year. that's my prediction as inflation out is really interesting because there's been a lot of criticism that interest rates too low too long, but rates were too low too long, but that helped stoke inflation. that's indeed helped stoke malinvestment and other peculiarities in economy,
9:42 am
inflate asset prices and all the rest of it. should we really concerned the interest are rising, or is this perhaps a normal ization back to the era before the financial crisis? well, if you're in a very able rate mortgage, these interest rate mortgage, these interest rate rises have been extremely painful. you know, people have lost their homes. painful. you know, people have lost their homes . and also , if lost their homes. and also, if you've got any kind of debt , you've got any kind of debt, payday you've got any kind of debt, payday loans or higher purchase agreements on utilities and so on as gb news businesses will tell you, a lot of those rates have gone up. of course, it's good news if you're a save . good news if you're a save. rates are still way below the rate of inflation. so you're getting what we call negative real returns on your money. but look, a lot of people say to me a lot of sort of 60 somethings say, oh back in my day in the late and, early late eighties and, early nineties, rates were nineties, interest rates were 15, and we still to 15, 20. and we still managed to work hard and buy our houses. and, know today's young and, you know today's young people eat too many avocado sandwiches that's they sandwiches and that's why they can't homes. i have to say can't buy homes. i have to say i hate avocados. yeah, i know you do. you that view is do. i know you know that view is complete nonsense. why it
9:43 am
complete nonsense. why is it nonsense? i'm sticking up for your generation here. told me it's nonsense. because it's complete nonsense. because even are lower even though interest are lower now , house prices are much now, house prices are much higher as a percentage of average incomes. right? so mortgage burdens are as high as they were in the late eighties and early nineties. even though interest rates are low, people are spending, you know, a third on average of their money, their mortgage, their take home or mortgage, their take home pay or their course. and their rent, of course. and interest rates could go a little bit higher. yes. so i don't buy this that just this idea that just because interest are lower than interest rates are lower than they in the late eighties they were in the late eighties and nineties they did and early nineties when they did get into double digits, get well into double digits, that generation , that somehow your generation, tom, much easier and if tom, has it much easier and if only you weren't. so i be far less you'd actually be able to buy don't buy that at buy house. i don't buy that at all. it's interesting because to some the why people are some extent the why people are some extent the why people are so overleveraged with their as things stand the reason these pnces things stand the reason these prices have risen not just is this lack of building that we've had in the country, but also the low rates that have allowed them to get into this position. so a
9:44 am
small rise in rates can have a big, big impact on lot of big, big impact on a lot of money borrowers, because this proportion you know, proportion a big rise. you know, if if you go from 3% if you go up if you go from 3% to 4, that's a 33% rise in the interest rate . if you go up to interest rate. if you go up to 10% or 12, it's only a 20% rise in the interest rate. that's true. look you're a student of politics obviously the economy is front centre, even knocking sleaze off the front pages and rightly so because this is what people really, really care about, i suggest that in the coming months and towards the end of 2023, inflation will half, as rishi sunak says, knock of anything that he does. but just because massive price rises of last year will fall out of the numbers, if you like, because they won't be repeated so suddenly inflation's a lot lower. do think interest rates lower. i do think interest rates will start come down. i do will start to come down. i do actually see some green shoots, so norman lamont's phrase so use norman lamont's phrase back in the day in the economy , back in the day in the economy, do think the imf prediction earlier this week was way out of
9:45 am
date and they over egged the gloominess and i think that when this interest rate decision comes at 12 noon today i will be at the bank of england reporting on it. and analysing it. i think the bank will also release some new forecasts which aren't nearly as gloomy as the forecasts that governor andrew bailey was talking about a month or so ago, about the longest recession in british history. i don't think that's going to happeni don't think that's going to happen i think the bank of england was too slow to get its head around covering inflation. and i think it's being too slow to see that there is the spec at least of recovery on the horizon . well, that is very, very interesting we'll stick with you all day here on gb news, especially at midday for that thanks to rates decision thanks , liam. now moving on, darren mccaffrey joins us from downing street, of course, to reflect on 100 days in office for rishi sunak, darren, how has he done ? sunak, darren, how has he done? well, it's really interesting, isn't it, tom? this 100 days, i
9:46 am
mean , be dozens of articles mean, be dozens of articles written about it. it's not actually a thing in the you got in that we've imported from america that became a thing around the us president is on the days i mean in many regards sunak doing he set out sunak is doing what he set out to achieve fundamentally which was to stabilise politics and economics the sense that economics in the sense that remember he took over at a time in which this trust was prime minister or had just been prime minister, which the financial markets were very jittery. there were concerns to liam about interest rates going way beyond 4% and looking at five, six, 7. and that seemed that there was no end in some regards to inflation. now we're, in a very situation, very different situation, very different situation today. liam is right, though, in suggesting that i mean, the government's really very little impact on inflation. it's not likely to have much impact in the months to come. it is just going fall because is just going to fall because that's inflation work that's how inflation work reports. what i would say is reports. but what i would say is there are still lots and lots of testing times ahead for the
9:47 am
prime, least of all because prime, not least of all because we have got scandal still in downing street. dominic raab was in with the prime minister last night. this is the deputy prime minister, the justice secretary who's awful of pressure who's under an awful of pressure about allegations . and about bullying allegations. and there an investigation taking there is an investigation taking place. of course there is suggestions, though, from within his own party, a bit like with nadhim zahawi , that maybe he nadhim zahawi, that maybe he should those should step aside while those investigations are out investigations are carried out and reason this is a problem for rishi sunak. first of all, there are questions about knew are questions about what he knew and when or how and to what extent you knew about these complaints before appointed complaints before he appointed him deputy prime minister. him as deputy prime minister. and all, dominic raab, and second of all, dominic raab, unlike nadhim zahawi, is actually very very to actually very very close to rishi sunak . actually very very close to rishi sunak. he was someone who headed up his leadership campaign summer. clearly campaign last summer. clearly he's deputy prime minister, he's the deputy prime minister, one the most senior ministers one of the most senior ministers within add to within government. then add to that curran disquiet that that the curran disquiet within the conservative party has not gone away in the sense that there are still a lot of conservatives who believe that taxation is too to them and taxation is too high to them and
9:48 am
it should cut try and it should be cut to try and boost growth . and this is all boost growth. and this is all leading into really difficult opinion polls for rishi sunak have local elections in may. they could be incredibly difficult the conservative difficult. the conservative party, sunak not turned party, rishi sunak not turned around any of those poll deficits. the conservatives saying if anything they are inching in the wrong direction and for him to . and that means and for him to. and that means that if we are going to judge things by 100 days, the next 100 days are going make things potentially. would suggest , potentially. i would suggest, more for sunak, who's more difficult for sunak, who's already in a very tight corner. we were, of course, just speaking with liam halligan economics and business editor who was talking about the seismic impact of economics and how so politics is downstream from economics. it's the economic conditions, things that then lead people to view other issues as in your view, darren mccaffrey does the economics situation or the sort of political scandals situation. which of these two will loom
9:49 am
largest over rishi sunak in the hundred ? next well, i think in hundred? next well, i think in many regards what's going to decide the next election if you want, in those terms, you know, coming to that old bill clinton adage , is the economy stupid in adage, is the economy stupid in the sense that labour are going to pose the question, do you feel better off at that particular time than you did 30 and 14 years ago? and for a lot of people right now, at the moment, the answer to that question is most definite. no have the government got the space to turn things around in the year 18 months? i'm not entirely sure they have an even if have in some if they have actually in some ways change is even more difficult . i mean, you look at difficult. i mean, you look at 1997, actually, the economy being growing for months, two being growing for 18 months, two years. it was the start of the longest period of britain's economic the country economic growth. the country ever seen. but because of black wednesday, because of the difficulties the conservative party in public party found themselves in public was in that place. and was just not in that place. and i the moment , was just not in that place. and i the moment, looking i suspect at the moment, looking at where we're at, that's where the conservative party are. those scandal help? of course it
9:50 am
doesn't. i don't think it's going to sway lots and lots of votes, but feeds into, again, going to sway lots and lots of votesense feeds into, again, going to sway lots and lots of vote sense talk eds into, again, going to sway lots and lots of vote sense talk to; into, again, going to sway lots and lots of vote sense talk to employees], going to sway lots and lots of vote sense talk to employees at the sense talk to employees at westminster this sense what people feel that this common feels tired it mired in corruption rightly or wrongly thatis corruption rightly or wrongly that is a perception out there and that that feed into a decision that the public well make may well make that it is time to change government that the party the conservative party needs some time out of power. however the number 10 will insist you know what, they will turn things around the economy will be growing and that there is this narrow path to victory that they heard at the last cabinet meeting and that they and rishi sunak's get there. i'm just suggesting at the moment looks like a pretty, pretty difficult a pretty steep hill to climb , a narrow path, a steep climb, a narrow path, a steep hill, a spindly i'm not sure what else we can call that a tightrope, but darren mccaffrey, thank you for joining tightrope, but darren mccaffrey, thank you forjoining us live thank you for joining us live from downing street. there one of the challenges that rishi
9:51 am
sunak will be facing, of course, may come from in his own party. and what do i mean by that ? and what do i mean by that? well, boris johnson is in the united states . you've followed united states. you've followed him on twitter. you might scarce believe he's stopped being prime minister this week . believe he's stopped being prime minister this week. he's believe he's stopped being prime minister this week . he's been minister this week. he's been meeting with officials from the ukrainian ambassador to the senate, republican mitch mcconnell. he met with the of the house kevin mccarthy , former the house kevin mccarthy, former speaker newt gingrich , the speaker newt gingrich, the republican study committee , as republican study committee, as well as a host of congresspeople and senators. he's appeared on fox news and abc news. he's been making the case for ukraine throughout all speaking with these politicians and think tanks , the centre of european tanks, the centre of european policy analysis and the atlantic council all seeing himself as an envoy for ukraine. is this the newly role of a global statesman , or is this a man with half an eye on westminster ? one downing eye on westminster? one downing street told me yesterday that the prime minister welcomes , all
9:52 am
the prime minister welcomes, all colleagues making the case for ukraine. but you can't help thinking if behind the scenes they think something quite different about the antics of johnson. well let's talk through some of those now, because i'm delighted to be joined by brendan clarke smith, the mp for bassetlaw . we'll be speaking to bassetlaw. we'll be speaking to him in just a he was one of the big supporters of boris johnson throughout . those final few throughout. those final few months was made a minister indeedin months was made a minister indeed in the time that boris johnson in his final stages as prime minister and brendan first of all, what's your of what the former prime minister boris johnson, of his new role is , johnson, of his new role is, this sort of global statesman ? this sort of global statesman? well, i think it's great, tom. i mean, if you look at the commitment that we've made to ukraine, britain has been very much at the forefront. that is something he feels very passionate about. and, of course , is on the first politicians to visit ukraine as well. it's
9:53 am
really important that drum really important that we drum up more support internationally for that. a great figure to that. and he's a great figure to be to do that. on top of be able to do that. on top of that, obviously we've had the foreign secretary and defence secretary doing some great work as well and the prime minister's reiterated his support. so we've got why not got that talent. no one, why not use ? i suppose there is a use it? i suppose there is a question in terms of how helpful it the prime minister, it is for the prime minister, because you do have this sort of competing vision, the foreign secretary the united secretary was in the united states weeks saying states two weeks ago saying a similar thing. but but of course, boris johnson in the that does he's going further that he does he's going further he's to ukraine he's saying send jets to ukraine which is a position that the prime minister of this country has not yet arrived at. is it your view that we should send jets to ukraine as well as tanks 7 jets to ukraine as well as tanks ? well, i think we need to support them as much as we can. obviously, ukraine isn't a member of nato's as things stand, but we've been leading that effort. we've been helping with training, with equipment, so on. so really, we want see an end to this war. anything that
9:54 am
can do to help that, i think is great government have been fairly clear on their position with and course backbench with it. and of course backbench mp myself and others, mp such as myself and others, all have their own views on as well. for certainly the well. but for me certainly the ukrainian people, the ones i speak in my constituency, you know, that desperate know, they're that desperate to go that free nation. and go home to that free nation. and we basically to get vladimir putin and his colleagues out now turning domestic politics, turning back domestic politics, of course prime minister's questions yesterday surprised , questions yesterday surprised, some with the prime minister facing a bit of a sticky wicket, he to perform relatively against keir starmer is this is this a new of rejuvenated prime minister now 100 days in office . i think in fairness to the prime minister i mean, is a very capable performer pmqs and i think he's been pretty consist with that as well. i'm not sure keir starmer really knows how to handle emma. i think with all the difficulties with strikes and so i think that's and so on. i think that's something a pretty sticky something that's a pretty sticky wicket moment. of wicket labour at the moment. of course the widespread disruption we things like minimum
9:55 am
we put things like minimum service through . we're service levels through. we're very much on the side working very much on the side of working people with and i think in people with that. and i think in terms minister's questions terms prime minister's questions really, hasn't been able to really, keir hasn't been able to learn . blow and course all learn. blow and of course all people were talking about yesterday, was kym yesterday, of course, was kym johnson's contribution and having to apologise for appalling comments on israel. so i it shows that certainly on his own backbench is this enough trouble for keir starmer behind him. yes, that was incredibly interesting. a chilling moment interesting. a chilling moment in the house of commons, really. i was up in the press gallery just sort of above kim johnson as that statement was made the word fascism being used about the jewish state just four days after holocaust memorial day was was incredibly shocking. was chilling , was incredibly shocking. was chilling, has labour party is the labour party still in this position that it was under jeremy corbyn? well, i fear so. i mean , this is the problem, of i mean, this is the problem, of course. i mean, for all the all the pr and all the efforts to
9:56 am
try and eradicate antisemitism in the party and this this almost anti—israel hatred that is still there. and, you know , is still there. and, you know, it wasn't just described as, you know, fascist. the government, of course, it was also likened an apartheid state. now, that's not kind current not really kind of current instructive that we instructive language that we want see, especially the want to see, especially the tensions at the moment really want to de—escalate. and want to be de—escalate. and that's look at the that's and if you look at the high res definition of anti—semitism, those kind of criticisms are right there at the at the forefront of its people using that kind of language. so it's right that the member actually apologised. obviously tried to obviously they've tried to discipline for it, but you know, when the going to be when is the person going to be doing and it's every we doing this? and it's every we have a debate on this issue. don't is important don't yeah. so it is important to she did apologise to note that she did apologise in point order yesterday in a point of order yesterday although following although that was following meeting with the chief whip. and of kym johnson remains of course kym johnson remains a labour well, brendan clarke labour mp. well, brendan clarke , much for joining , thank you so much for joining us . briefing us here. the briefing this morning. appreciate your morning. really appreciate your time that's it for on time as always. that's it for on the briefing this morning. catches at 930 tomorrow. but coming up next, it's bev turner
9:57 am
9:58 am
9:59 am
10:00 am
very good morning. welcomes bev turner today on gb news news today. another interest rate rise to 10th in a row. good news


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on