>> pelley: tonight, the president opens a double-digit lead in a state that could decide the election. mitt romney still has a path to victory, but it's getting narrow. our new poll shows what's driving voters. >> i think the economy is better today than it was three years ago. >> pelley: reports from our campaign 2012 team. after one of the worst calls in football history, there is movement today on getting real officials back on the field. jeff glor is covering. and michelle miller on a bittersweet homecoming for the indiana national guard, happy to be back from afghanistan, but mourning the men that they lost. >> i would gladly give my life to bring all four of them back. captioning sponsored by cbs this is the "cbs evening news" with scott pelley. >> pelley: good evening.

41 days before the election, president obama is opening leads in states that mitt romney can least afford to lose. have a look at our new poll today. the president now has a 10-point lead in the swing state of ohio, 53% to 43. in florida, another key swing state, mr. obama's lead is nine points, 53% to 44. and the president leads by 12 point in pennsylvania, 54 to 42. this quinnipiac university/cbs news/"new york times" polls has a margin of roar of three points so the leads are significant. our cbs news election analysis team is moving ohio from a toss- up to leaning toward mr. obama. with that, we estimate 255 electoral votes are solidly in the obama camp or leaning that way. for governor romney the number is 206 with 270 needed to win.

the president would have to pick up just 15 in the remaining toss-up state that you see on this map in gray. if the president wins ohio, governor romney would have to nearly sweep those toss-up states in order to win the white house. so no surprise that we find both candidates in ohio today. our campaign 2012 team is on their trail and we're going to start tonight with nancy cordes. nancy. >> reporter: well, scott, it all comes down to women. the president won among women by eight points back in 2008. it's a big part reason he won here. but today's poll finds he has a far greater advantage with women now, leading governor romney among women by 25 points. ( cheers and applause ) the president's support among ohio women has surged six point just in the past month. one reason can be found in their answers to this poll question:

about which candidate cares about their needs and problems. 65% of ohio women said president obama. 33% said governor romney. tonda young, the glenford, ohio, described herself as an independent in the poll but she's been swayed by democratic ads painting romney as a ruthless businessman. >> they've said on tv, anyway, that he's put all these poor people out of business, taken all these jobs away from the united states. >> reporter: mr. obama has also narrowed the gap among a group of voters that he has struggled to win over in the past-- whites without a college degree. in august, mr. obama trade romney by 13 points with this group. now he trails by just three points. part of that has to do with his consistent emphasis on the 2009 auto bailout, which democrats claim saved 45,000 jobs in this manufacturing state. >> when my opponent said we should just let detroit go bankrupt--

( booing ) don't boo, vote. you know, that-- that-- that would have meant walking away from an industry that supports one in eight ohio jobs. >> reporter: white, working class voters make up 50% of the electorate, and, scott, nearly six in ten of them told us they consider the auto bailout a success. >> pelley: nancy, thank you. governor romney's campaign, of course, is based on the idea that he's a mister fix-it for the economy, but our poll of ohio voters found that most believe the president would do a better job on the economy, 51% to 45%. they give the president a ten- point advantage on taxes, too, 53 to 43. on dealing with the deficit, however, governor romney comes out on top, 49 to 45. jan crawford is covering in toledo tonight, jan. >> reporter: well, scott,

after getting off his economic message and now taking hit in the polls, the romney campaign is shifting some of its strategies and we're starting to see that on the trail. to better connect with voters, romney is campaigning more with three events today in ohio. >> we're taking back this country. we're going to get it strong again! >> reporter: he's been more accessible to the media, with hastily arranged interviews. >> i listen to a lot of advice but frankly i'm going to keep on my message which is i know how to get this economy going, create jobs, more take-home pay for people. >> reporter: and today he released a new type of television ad which will air here in ohio and other battleground states where he makes his case directly with voters. >> my plan will create 12 million new jobs over the next four years. >> reporter: the romney campaign knows the candidate has something of an image problem and hope to change the impression he can be aloof and detached. he is still shadowed by remarks he made of which he said about his campaign, it's not my job to

worry about the 47% of people who don't pay income taxes. >> those comments hasn't just become a problem with romney's critics. >> well, i don't know about anybody else, but i thought, you know, it's-- it was right. what he said was right, 47 people-- 47% of the people do not pay any income tax. >> reporter: now, the campaign took away neler's sign and said you can't take homemade ones to those rally and told me afterwards romney's comment at that fund-raiser didn't bother her, wouldn't affect the vote. but all of this, the shift in strategy by the romney campaign raises the question can it happen fast enough? >> pelley: jan, thanks very much. we asked dean reynolds to check in with ohio voters. >> i'm just wondering if mitt

romney and paul ryan can count on your support. >> reporter: in this swing county in this swing today... >> believe in america! >> reporter: ...the political ground game is well under way. >> i'm with the mitt romney campaign. >> reporter: polls suggest the republicans have work to do, especially on undecided voters, such as nick and elaine saras. >> i think the economy is better today than it was three years ago. so we might be heading in the right direction. >> reporter: might be? >> might be. >> reporter: they own the sidewalk cafe in painesville, and while they say they haven't made up their mind, third words lean towards the president. >> i do like that he created a lot of jobs in ohio and i'm looking forward to the debates. hopefully they answer some questions that they didn't answer at the convention. >> reporter: lake county is a good indicator of political sentiment statewide. george bush won here in 2004, and went on to win ohio and reelection. barack obama prevailed here in 2008, won the state and the

presidency. each rode a wave of enthusiasm that folks here say is missing this time around, something that should concern both campaigns as they try to get out the vote. >> could i leave you with some information then? >> sure can. >> reporter: lake county is more moderate republican than tea party, and here's where romney may have some trouble. >> you're going to give them an elbow on the way around. >> reporter: libby hill is a karate instructor and longtime republican who exemplifies the gender gap romney must narrow. what would romney have to do to bring you back in the fold? >> i think he'd have to come more to the center. >> reporter: her party is too conservative, she says, and its nominee too removed. >> he really doesn't know the common man. >> reporter: here in ohio, that's a very hard perception to change, and it's made all the harder, scott, when you have fewer than six weeks to change it. >> pelley: dean, thanks very much. now let's look at the critical

state of florida. nearly one out of three voters in florida is over 65, and one thing that really jumped out at us today in the poll is a big shift in that group toward the president. a month ago, mr. obama trade among seniors by 13 points. in our new poll today, he is ahead by four, 51% to 47%. that is a swing of 17 points in one month. john dickerson is our cbs news political director. and, john, what do you see in that number in. >> reporter: well the statisticians will remind us polls are just a snapshot and not predictive of what will happen but it does give us an indication of the underlying currents in the race. barack obama lost the senior vote to john mccain in florida by eight points in 2008. so for the president to be doing well in that traditional republican voting block is a danger sign for romney. strategists for both parties in florida agree obama is ahead in the state and the battle over

medicare is helping make inroads with seniors. as nancy reported, the president is also doing better with blue collar white voters in ohio and doing better on the economy of the economy. whose happening is mitt romney is having to play defense with his own voting group. the time he has to spend shoring them up is time he's not spending getting swing voters. >> pelley: john, polls that are taken about this point in september sometimes predict the winner and sometimes they don't. in 2008, we had obama over mccain at about this point, but in the year 2000, we had gore over bush about this point. how predictive are these polls six weeks out. >> reporter: if we go all the way back to 1952, eisenhower's first election, the vast majority of the time the candidates who was ahead of the polls ended up winning in the end. but mitt romney can hold on to, though, is that president's john kennedy, ronald reagan, and george w. bush are all tied or behind, scott, and they pulled it out in the end. >> pelley: john, thanks very much.

>> pelley: as in politics, things can change pretty quickly in sports. the nfl and its referees seemed ready to dig in for a long fight over pay and pension but that was before the uproar over that terrible call in the monday night game. now it appears the lockout may soon be over and jeff glor has the latest. jeff. >> reporter: scott, not done yet but much closer to tonight. we're told both sides have made major concessions and there might be a final deal in place by the end of tonight. it was the blown call that apparently paved the way for the breakthrough. monday night's mess, when a replacement official called the disputed play for seattle seahawks, giving them an end of time win over the green bay packers, triggered a new flurry of negotiating between the nfl and its regular referees. now, three weeks of increasingly sloppy officiating handled by referees that were ernest but not experienced appears to be

just about over. it was three weeks that featured frequent fights, long delays, even a coach grabbing an official. fans were furious and so were players to took to twitter to criticize the league in blunt language. the league said today those players would not be fined. the main sticking point in the negotiation was the nfl's insistence that the referees give up their pension plans and accept a 401(k) plan. the nfl also wanted the ability to bench poorly performing referees. so, jeff, what's the timing on this. when would the regular refs go back to work? >> reporter: scott there was talk of about happening as early as this weekend but things would have to move very quickly for that to happen. if not, the target would be week five, the following weekend. >> pelley: jeff, thanks very much. there was something striking in syria's civil war today. the rebels took their fight on army headquarters in damascus, syria's pentagon. a surveillance camera captured a suicide bomber blowing up a van outside the building.

another struck inside. at least four guards were killed. the smoke could be seen all over the city. the rebels are trying to overthrow the assad dictatorship. the nation's top c.e.o.s answer the question, "who's hiring?" more americans are burdened with student loan debt. and remembering andy williams when the "cbs evening news" continues. the machine showed me a map of my feet, and it gave me my custom number. my arches needed more support until i got my number at the free dr. scholl's foot mapping center. i'm a believer! and you will be too! learn where to find your number at drscholls.com.

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>> pelley: we got a forecast today about the job market from the people who to the hiring. a survey of american c.e.o.s found that only 29% plan to increase hiring over the next six months, down from june, when 36% said they were adding jobs. a growing number of americans need the work just to pay off their student loans. a new study out today says 19% of households in 2010 had student loan debt, and the average balance-- average-- was more than $26,000, a 14% increase in three years. elaine quijano has one student's story. >> reporter: jessica brothers has a bachelor's degree and is pursuing a masters. she's 28 years old and $85,000 in debt. did you expect your education to cost that much?

>> no, i didn't expect it to cost that much. when i originally started, i was just pursuing what i wanted to do in school and what my passion was. >> reporter: her student loan debt began to pile up when she enrolled in a $30,000-a-year private college. that was unaffordable. so she transferred here to brooklyn college, a public institution, where annual tuition is just over $5,000. >> it does put a little bit of a pressure to want to make sure i get that good-paying job to make sure i can pay these loans back. >> reporter: one in ten families has student loan debt now owes nearly $62,000, $7,000 more than just three years earlier. total u.s. student loan debt has surpassed $1 trillion. while student debt is rising, average starting salary for college grads have gone up only slightly to just over $44,000. when of with the degrees you have, what are the starting salaries for the position? >> anywhere from 50 to 60 starting.

>> reporter: brothers enters the job market next year. right now he's earning enough with her part-time job at the student center to keep up with her 70-a-month payment but those will balloon to $300 next year. >> i may be paying it back the rest of the my life, but i do want to pay back my loans. >> reporter: with the unemployment rate for americans her age at over 9%, that won't be so easy. elaine quijano, brooklyn, new york. >> reporter: overseas there was a protest march in athens that turned into a riot. some in the crowd threw firebombs at police and the cops responded with tear gas. greek unions had organized the march and a one-day strike to protest a new round of government spending cuts. the government's out of money, and international banks would not lend it any more unless it cut salaries and programs. scientists have made an underwater discovery-- hundreds of thousands of new species. that story's next.

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this is rudy. who switched to aleve. and two pills for a day free of pain. ♪ and get the all day pain relief of aleve in liquid gels. they'll cut education again. here's a new approach. prop thirty-eight sends billions in new education dollars straight to our local schools, and guarantees the politicians can't touch it. thirty-eight will restore the education cuts from sacramento. so remember this number. thirty-eight. >> pelley: scientists reported quite a discovery today-- hundreds of thousands of new life forms at sea. the new species are microscopic plankon, a critical source of food for whales.

scientists spent more than two years at sea covering 70,000 miles, and they found 1.5 million species of plankton, and that is double the previous estimate. when the news broke here today that andy williams had died, a lot of folks had the same reaction-- they started humming his theme song. ♪ moon river ♪. ( applause ) >> pelley: andy williams began his singing career with his brothers. their big break was backing up bing crosby. ♪ would you like to swing on a star ♪ carry moonbeams home in a jar ♪ >> andy williams! >> pelley: when he got his own tv show in the 1960s, williams introduced america to another brother act, the osmonds. williams had 21 gold or platinum albums and once topped the singles chart. ♪ but i'm crazy about you you butterfly ♪ >> pelley: williams christmas specials were a tv tradition,

and in more recent years he performed at his moon river theater in branson, missouri. andy williams died last night of bladder cancer. he was 84. a national guard unit comes home from war, but the joy today is mixed with sadness, and that's next. a little bit more vanilla? this is great! [ male announcer ] at humana, we believe there's never been a better time to share your passions... because the results... are you having fun doing this? yeah. that's a very nice cake! [ male announcer ] well, you can't beat them. [ giggles ] ohh! you got something huh? whoa... [ male announcer ] humana understands the value of spending time together that's a lot of work getting that one in! let's go see the birdies. [ male announcer ] one on one, sharing what you know. let's do it grandpa. that's why humana agents will sit down with you,

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>> finally tonight, it was nearly one year-ago that the indiana national guardsmen deployed against them on a dangerous mission, to clear roadside bombs. today they came home. most of them. michelle miller was there. >> party ready to meet your uncle? >> it has been a year since the man that has seen her brother sergeant clayton jordan. today was the day that he and 713 engineer company of the indiana national guard return for more. she had a special delivery for brother, his nephew, seven months old. >> he is home and that is all i

could ask for. >> these men have spent the past year clearing land mines in afghanistan. shall all the times we talk about this day, it is finally here. >> six of his friends were not as lucky, they were killed. >> to six people like that is extremely catastrophic to me. >> the specialist has been home since january, he was in at a truck that detonated a roadside bomb that killed four of the guardsmen. >> take me back to that day. >> i want to remember but i don't really. >> for nearly a month he lay in a coma at walter reed hospital, with a broken pelvis and fractured spine and crushed ankle and a punctured lung. >> i thank god every day that i'm still here and i got to see my son's birth and be back here in the states for that. i can be around my kids, but at the same time i would gladly give my life to bring all four of them back. >> he was eager to thank the man who saved his life. one of them was sergeant jordan

who saw the explosion from the rear of the convoy. >> the not knowing, the terror. it was scary. >> jordan is not only his brother in arms, but his brother in the law. the last time these nine saw each other he was being loaded onto a medical helicopter. amanda also want to thank her big brother clinton. >> my brother told me, he sat there and he held dog in his arms, words cannot express how thankful i am for my brother. >> pit is my family coming home. >> finally back home again in indiana. michelle miller, cbs news, gary indiana. >> that is the cbs evening news for tonight's call. for all of us at cbs news, all- around world, good night. >> good evening i am alan martin

>> i am dana king and we begin with breaking news @ san fransisco where a wild chase through the western mission just came to a dramatic finish and our cameras were there when it ended. joe vasquez joins us live from the scene near hays and webster. >> take a look at the mess that was left behind by this wild chase, you can see several cars dashed through the streets in the western addition including a cbs 5 live truck. back there you can see the car there were chasing, a mercedes. apparently that this started with the robbery of a woman that was walking through pacific heights and it just took off through the streets, one car after another hit by the car they were chasing. a couple of suspects were taken into custody, not too long ago. listen to how one witness described this. >> the mercedes came down hays streets and it was stepping through to intersections and got right here and slammed into the side of the van v