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tv   Nightly Business Report  PBS  September 25, 2013 1:00am-1:31am PDT

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this is nightly business report. >> sailing through the heart of historic cities and landscapes on a river you get close to iconic landmarks, to local life, to cultural treasures. viking river cruises, exploring the world in comfort. sharon never said that we were going to reduce the rate of asset purchases in september. she said laterer this year. i think that framework he laid out is still very much intact. >> an influential fed member says status quo when it comes to the taper. so why is the market not flying high? is there something unusual going on? i do believe that if we can resolve the issue around nuclear programs, that can serve as a major step down a long road towards a different relationship. extending an olive branch.
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president obama pledges diplomacy with iran. but which markets could be impacted if sanctions against that country are lifted? and back to business, why big oil is making a big investment in the gulf of mexico three years after the bp oil spill. all that and more tonight on "nightly business report" for tuesday, september 24th. good evening, everyone. it's now four down days for the dow and the s&p 500. investors still not feeling encouraged by stocks even after positive comments today from one of the most influential members of the federal reserve. bill dudley, vice-chairman of the fed and president of the new york federal reserve bank, says nothing has changed at the nation's central bank that plans to taper back its bond-buying stimulus measures this year are still on the table. listen to the words of bill dudley when asked if the fed could pull back on its asset purchases this year.
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>> i wouldn't rule it out but it depend on the data. if it's driven by data, not by time. so when the chairman says later this year, that was conditioned on the economy behaving in a way in line with the fed's forecast. so if the economy were behaving in a way -- in line with the fed's june forecast then it's certainly like lit fed would begin to taper later this year. but that remains uncertain. >> meanwhile despite the markets in sort of a holding pattern right now, the fed continues buy $85 billion in bonds every month just as it has for the past year. stocks extended their recent slide with no developments on the threat of a government shutdown in washington and conflicting data about the u.s. economy. home prices way up in july but consumer confidence for this month declined. stocks moved lower into the close erasing earlier gains. in the end the dow fell 66 point. the s & p was down 4 but the tech heavy nasdaq was able to squeeze out a three-point gain. our guest tonight has a
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theory on why stocks aren't rallying even though the fed is still stimulating the economy. peter bookmark believes the markets are beginning to disconnect from what the fed says. he's chief market analyst from the lindsay group. great to have you here. >> great to be here. thank you. >> talk us through this disconnect between what the fed says and the market reaction. on four dates since that fed decision. >> we had the massive rally wednesday and euphoria of the fed doing nothing. in three days we gave it back and had the fourth day. investors aren't used to this. they're used to the fed giving the market what they want and then the markets responding with sharp rallies. the s & ps are up about 20% this year, and i argue that a lot of that has to do with the fed. well, here the fed was incremental in giving the markets what they wanted and the markets aren't following through. it was 2008 was the last time that the fed was easing but the markets ignored it because obvious lit system was on the verge of collapse.
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this time around i'm wondering what's going on. there's something different here. the market's saying something. >> what is trumping the fed in this case? is it concern over a government shutdown, over the debt ceiling debate that we're going to face right after that? is it concerns raised about terrorism in the wake of what went on in kenya? what is it? >> it could be those. but i'm wondering if maybe the stock market which has used the excuse of qe this entire year to rationize every single rally, that maybe we've stretched the rubber band so far between the spread of where stock prices are and where the undergoing fundamental wills say they should be. no single digit earnings growth this year. that doesn't substantiate a 20% rally in the stock markets. we've had the expansion of the p multiple because of the fed. in the last four days, kind of squishy trading is kind of telling me that maybe the fed, which lost control of the bond market to some extent since may,
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is maybe losing its influence on the stock market now also. >> let's say you're right about all of this. this is weighing on investors. what does this mean for the outlook for the markets? are we in for a big market correction? maybe a bear market even? >> well, any tape watch ever that's watched the action since wednesday's big rally has to take a step back and say something's not right here. and if that is the case, we may be on the cusp of a correction. we haven't had a 10% correction in a few years. so there's an argument to be made that the best is in if that the fed can no longer generate higher stock prices, the fundamentals certainly are not. maybe we need to start reacting on the down side of that. >> is the prudent thing to do to start take some profits, take some money off the table, go to cash, and if so what do you sell? >> the problem with the market right now is almost every asset class is expensive. and that's the case with most sectors of the stock market.
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>> certainly that's what buff ex et said last week. >> it's been a great year. the market has acted different lit last four days. raise some cash. it provides a buffer, some dry powder. don't be afraid to have cash even though everyone says don't be in it. it's a place to be if the market's going to correct. >> all right. thank you so much. peter, it's been great having you on the program. >> good to see you, peter. we've been talking with peter bookmark chief market analyst at the lindsay group. >> good for him. now to housing, s & p kay shuller home index for july shows home prices shot up nearly 12.5% from a year ago but the gains happened at a slower pace, indicating to some that growth may have peaked. biggest gains in las vegas and san francisco, up 27 and 25% respectively. two big home builders also reported some good news today.
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profits at len nard rose after logging more orders for new homes and selling them at higher prices, at k.b. holmes nine times more profits than compared to the same period a year ago. k.b. charged 15% more for its new homes but says orders are a little weaker than expected. considering it was a down day in the markets, look at these gains in shares of lennar, k.p. holme and ryeland group up by more than 4% while other builders saw gains today. the price of oil fell for the seventh time in the last eight sessions after the u.s. extended a diplomatic olive branch to iran. sanctions against iran's oil industry have cut the opeq member's exports in half over the past two years. crude fell another 46 cents a barrel to end a day at the lowest close since july 30th. iran and international sanctions were topic a at the united nations today. speaking at the u.n., president obama urged international cooperation in eradicating serious chemical weapons, and he
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also wants to open the door to direct talks with iran's newly-elected leader. >> we are encouraged that president rouhana received from the iranian people a mandate to pursue a more moderate course. given his stated agreement to reach an agreement, i am directing john kerry to pursue this effort. while the status quo will only deeper iran's isolation, their genuine commitment to go down a different path will be good for the region and the world. >> the big questions now, whether rouhani's conciliatory words are genuine and what that could do for energy prices. michelle caruso has more on what this means for iran and the u.s. >> let's start off with talking about how much oil is off because of those sanctions against iran. >> a lot, suzie. iran used to produce more than 3.5 million barrels of oil per day but that's fallen by more than 1 million barrels per day since 2010.
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so close to a third of their production is gone. because so few countries in the world are willing to buy them. buy oil from them. not just the united states that has sanctions against them but europe as well. so when you lose one-third of your sale, it's been truly devastating to the iranian economy and also the currency. >> if that oil, michelle, returned to the market what would prices do? >> well, presumably with more supply there would be lower prices. and keep find that if it does come on line what's coming into the world there is a lot of oil already. u.s. production at a 25-year high. libyan oil production has finally started to recover along with iraqi oil as well. that is offset by rising demand in asia. and keep in mind also saudi arabia always acts like an accordian. when there's a shortage they step in when there's a lot they pull out. it's hard to say. but presumably it helps pressure prices downward if iranian supplies come back on. >> we're still a long way off between normalizing relations between the u.s. and iran. but let's say it does happen
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somehow magically over the next couple of months or year. what could that mean in terms of trade, in terms of economic benefits for the u.s., for iran, for the world, the global economy? >> well, the biggest up side if it were to happen and oil analysts we spoke with were very doubtful. they're not calculating a big increase in oil production anytime soon. but the biggest winner would absolutely be iran compared to everyone else in the world. they desperately need that money back. their currency has plummeted. they have admitted their gdp has fallen by more than 5%. they've had protests within the business community because of what's going on there. and particularly fighting inflation. they're the ones who would benefit the most. >> michelle caruso cabrera reporting tonight. still ahead, did traders get the fed's no taper decision ahead of everyone else? we'll tell you what regulators are doing to even the playing field. first how did the international markets close today?
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there may be a deal in the works for the embattled hedge fund manager steven cohen and his company sac capital advisers. federal prosecutors are proposing settling an insider trading case against the firm for as much as $2 billion. sac lawyers are expected to present a counter offer in the coming weeks. any deal would require the hedge fund to plead guilty. s.e.c. paid a separate $616 million civil fine earlier this year and it's still not clear if there will be any criminal charges filed against cohen or any of his employees.
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well, we've seen this before. a major economic report comes out. and there's evidence of millions of dollars worth of trades taking place merely seconds before the data is officially released. now there's speculation that traders may have gotten last week's fed use about its plans not to taper its stimulus program seven millie second early. this time members of the press are being looked at as possible leaks. amy jaamonjaffers from new york tell us about this. >> what we learned today the federal reserve is contacting certain news organizations to go over the rules that news organizations have to abide by when they go into what's called the lockup room. that's the area of the federal reserve where reporters get early access to market-moving information under the terms that they agree to hold it for public release until 2:00 p.m. in the case of last week's taper announcement. so the question is, did anybody
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inside that lockup room transmit any data outside the room before 2:00 p.m.? the reason the fed is looking at this now is because there's an unusual pattern of trading in the market in chicago. now, that all depends on the speed of light and telecommunications transportation timing from d.c. to chicago. it looks like there are trades in chicago that happened before people in chicago should have been able to know about the fed's decision, but nonetheless after 2:00 p.m. that's because it takes about 7 millie seconds for data to get from d.c. where i'm sitting to chicago where those traders were, where their computers were. somehow they got it before that. that would seem to be impossible. the question is how did it happen? that's what the fed's looking into. >> so this has happened now a couch times. do you think or what are you hearing that this could impact the way the government releases its data? what kind of changes can we expect? >> we're seeing every aspect of the federal government wrestling with this question. you've got these old procedures
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for releasing information crashing up against a system of new technologies, including millie second level trading, speed of light telecommunications transmission and the rest of it they're not mixing very well. the department of labor is struggling with this in terms of the release of the jobs report, how to make sure everybody gets that at the same time is a very difficult question. now the fed wrestling with it today. i think that what we are going to see in the future is a different regime for releasing information in this millie second speed of light kind of world. >> maybe einstein was wrong. >> maybe somebody had a time-traveling delorean. >> what is this going to do to investor confidence? >> we've seen a number of these incidents in terms of traders and others being able to have access to news before other people were able to have access to it throughout the year. if you're a mom and pop investor you look at the whole kit and kaboodle of this and you say, wait a second, this doesn't feel
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really fair to me. but the other question is, how many mom and pop investors are actually interested in investing on a 7 millie second level? maybe they look at it and say i'm not worried about that because i'm not trading that fast anyway. by the time i get to it, the information is already out there on the market. >> all right. amon, faster than the speed of light? for more on the story please head to our web site, nbr.com. here's something to tweet about, tyler. twitter has picked the new york stock exchange to list its initial public stock offering. some are saying that twitter wants to avoid the glitches that nearly torpedoed facebook shares last year. we begin with a $9 billion deal applied materials plans to buy rival tokyo electron combining the number one and three makers of chip making gear. the company will maintain a dual
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listing on the new york and tokyo stock exchange. that made it the best performing stock on the s&p 500 today. different story for shares of cypress semiconductor. stock falling after it cut its third quarter outlook. weakness from asia cited. cypress plunged almost 15% to 9.65. deep discounts weren't enough to bring passengers back to carnival cruise lines. the company said bookings for the next three quarters are below last year's pace. even with lower ticket prices. the world's largest cruise line still feeling the fallout from its three ship that is suffered mechanical problems earlier this year. shares of carnival dropped nearly 8% today to 34.54. it was also a rough day for red hat, the softwaremaker falling sharply after the company reported billions below analysts forecasts and a disappointing revenue outlook. red hat's software is free.
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the company makes money by charging for maintenance and support services. stock dropped to 46.75. things were different at carmax. strong sales of its used cars. biggest used vehicle seller in the u.s. has posted higher profits in recent quarters helped by the economic recovery. the stock finished the day higher by 3.5%. another activist investor strikes. sandal asset management is calling on bob evans farms to take several major steps to change its business. the hedge fund which owns more th than 5% of the company wants it to separate its food products business to a sale or spinoff. those moves along with other changes would unlock value to shareholders, he says. investors seemed to like the idea. the stock rose almost 1% to 57.43. there's an oil boom going on in an unlikely place, the gulf of mexico. just three years after that devastating oil spill. but now, some of the biggest
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names in the energy sector are heading back into the gulf, drilling for oil and gas in record numbers. jackie deangeles has more. >> before they float out into the ocean, many of these deep water offshore platforms are built here at the keywit fabrication yard. many companies are planning to vest and expand their presence in the gulf. shell, chevron, just some of the companies that have commissioned new deep water oil platforms. it's all part of big oil's vestment in the gulf three years after the bp oil spill. >> we've been very fortunate here. it's been not only a busy summer but a busy year. >> chevron is one of the companies investing in new gulf coast production. with two new platforms, targeting first oil by the end of 2014, including this one, called jack saint melo. the helideck of this platform is 30 stories high. upon completion it's going to take about ten days to get it
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300 miles off the coast of louisiana, and it has to travel through this channel. the company's engineers are working on new technologies, including seismic processing, letting them see deeper below the earth's surface. innovation that just ten years ago seemed unthinkable. >> years ago we could not see the reservoirs below salt. now for jack saint melo we're able to understand what's below the salt, determine the size of the reservoirs and help us in developing projects like this. >> but investment in technology isn't just being made for production purposes. it's also being made for safety. >> when we start designing a facility designing a well we're already thinking about how can we execute this work safely, how can we produce, use the facility, produce the wells, not only on day one but on the 30th year of production. >> despite the challenges bp faced in the gulf, other oil companies are eager to get to work there. it takes roughly 20 months to get a new platform fabricated,
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but there's been a wave of orders that extends beyond this year. >> well, it's been a very prosperous time. next year looks like a slower year, but 2015 is shaping up to be another bumper year. >> chevron is betting big with a vestment of nearly $12 million in these two new platforms. once they're up and running, new technology, jobs and oil will flow from the gulf. for nightly business report i'm jackie deangeles,. a new corporate gold rush? there's an up and coming consumer group and some of the biggest companies are trying to tap into them. a check on how currencies performed today.
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while lawmakers in washington try to hammer out a budget deal, today a dire warning from treasury secretary jack lew. he says that the government actually has less cash on hand than expected, making congressional approval to raise the borrowing limit even more critical. the nation's debt ceiling is expected to be reached by mid october. shareholders of smith field foods have approved a deal to sell the biggest pork producer to a chinese company. the $4.7 billion acquisition by shonguai will become the largest takeover or a u.s. company by n chinese firm. a new report from research firm idc predicts that china, already the world's biggest smartphone market, could see
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shipments of more than 450 million devices next year. that's about 25% more than this year. part of the reason? china mobile, the world's biggest wireless carrier, is expected to carry apple's iphones by next year. with all those mobile devices in china, changes to a ban on some internet sites were bound to happen. now a hong kong newspaper reports that facebook, twitter and other web sites that are currently blocked by the chinese government will be opened up for use as early as next week, but only in a planned free trade zone in shanghai. smart phones and social media sites are the communication tools of choice for millions of generation y members all over the world. and in china, millions of those free-spending upwardly mobile 20 somethings have become the most sought-after consumers by big american brands and their advertisers. our reporter has more. >> reporter: american car maker ford has a little insider knowledge of how to market to
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young chinese. chelsea chen is a 20 something from shanghai, the very consumer ford wants to tartar get. chen says china's one child policy has changed the way her generation lives. >> because we don't have any brothers or sisters. so our school mates, our colleagues, might be our best friends, i think our generation are just -- we are looking for ways to group activities. >> their love for group activities such as karaoke prompted ford to sponsor china's version of "american idol," helping to sell cars like the focus now a favorite in china. companies everywhere see this country's 20 somethings as perhaps the most important up and coming consumers in the world. market researcher p.t. black says the secret to wooing them is to understand young chinese move between a modern china and a world of tradition, and that they aspire to master these competing worlds.
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>> a chameleon is someone who can fit into any circumstance. mastering different circumstances, knowing what to wear to a picnic versus a movie opening, that's the kind of mastery that kids here are really looking for. >> pepsi says young chinese are also looking to live for themselves. so the giant hired a popular amateur singer to front this international live for now campaign here. >> we are in the process of discovering their self-identity much sooner than any of us did. they are more open-minded. and they want to debate about things. >> young chinese are technology obsessed, checking social media when choosing brands. young people in china are bombarded by brands every day. so the competition among companies to grab their attention is more fierce than ever before. >> though winning that fight could pay off if china's 20 somethings become fans of your brand. for nightly business report,
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shanghai. finally tonight burger king has come up with a great way to sell more french fries to more health conscious diners. make them with 30% less fat and 20% fewer calories and come up with a great name. today the nation's number three burger chain began selling -- see if you can think of the name -- fatisfry. it will be sold alongside the regular fries, but these which will absorb less oil will cost just a little bit more. but don't you think it might be very satisfrying? >> i have to do a taste test first. >> welcome back by the way. we missed you while you were away in turkey. >> a little bit of time in istanbul. fascinating country. a growing economy, too. >> we'll get those fries over there, soon. that's it for us tonight. thanks so much for watching. >> thanks for me as well. have a great evening, everybody. we hope to see you back here tomorrow night.
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>> nightly business report has been brought to you by -- >> sailing through the heart of soak cities and landscapes on a river, you get close to iconic landmarks to local life to cultural treasures. viking river cruises, exploring the world in comfort.
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the following kqed production was produced in high definition. >> narrator: this time on "spark" -- victor cartagena draws on memories of el salvador's bloody civil war to create a haunting body of work. then, san jose taiko fuses traditional japanese drumming with world music flair. >> percussion instruments that help embellish the booming sound of taiko. >> narrator: finally, jim denevan carves enormous and ephemeral sand drawings on the beaches of northern california. next on "spark." >> narrator: major support for "spark" is provided by -- the james irvine foundation, expanding opportunity for the people of california. the william and gretchen kimball fund.

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