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tv   Nightly Business Report  PBS  December 9, 2019 5:00pm-5:30pm PST

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griffith. monday blues. amid the loaningest bull market record, there are signso k eeep. december 15th is fast approaching and it has b implications for china, canada and mexico. behind the wheel. the discounts are deep, the savings look big, but a closer htthig not stories and much mor tonight on nightly besuss. good ening, everyone, re et,ng a ihort rtoalnvly es
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ay. the market shifted its attention from the strong jobs report friday to looming trade adlines which we'll have more on in a moment. thatas w wer. the dow jones dropped 105 points to ,9 5 slied 9. lls dake bpuacom longest econom y. orhi to the aging bull market as we head into 2020. >> reporter: more than a decade into the longest expansion in history. even wall street's oimists september the u.s. is i a strong market. mog e of
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some broad indicators appear to reflect late cycle indicatio. onsumer confidee peaked lerevels. andfe auto sales crested years ago. consumer debt burdens are quite ti tame. thck market has quadrupled in value has undergone three ow mini-cycles, wn scares stnngar i late y leading to no net progress for more than a year fore stocks improved the se. seors geared to a pickup in growth such as industrial stocks
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and banks have performed better, suggesting investors are gain confidence in the growth none of this the economy is clear for years to come. the evidence suggests that even if this is a maturecycle, it can mod along for quite a while before a recession ultimately >> ingesntesualylti tpi dhete investors have been dumping stocks a the fastest pace in s.deca accordingtr to the wallt journal which cited data, $135stors have pulled billion from u.s. stocked focused mutual funds and set so f this year. n u r neak o artf hogan, welcome back, arthur. good to see you. >> good to see you. >> tradition on wall street says when the market is near all time highs,llhat's when the s investor is piling into the stk market.
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they're getting out right now. what do you make of >>that? erned.f macro news that hasco nc the potential for a nasty brexit. certainly that muscle memory for the fourth quarter looked like last year. if you're an investor and you rode last year's 17%drivedown. most of that happening in december, you say, we've h a greatyear, why not take something off the table. the other thing that's important here is demographics, aging baby boomers is going to be moving out of equities, whereas the xt generation coming up hasn't started building up enough wealth to make up for that. omyouen uernderiostnand startin cash outks st and put things more on the fixed income world. >> you say there are three things that make this december very different from last december. >> thank god,right? >> yes. >> so last december at thisme ing, that we're having this week, raise rates and talk about
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raising rateshree more times now we have the fed cut rates three times. they're neutral now, but they stand at t. the global economy was slowing, the u.s. economic dat following that, so both of those things muchff t.erdi en is, the tone aroun.s. u constructivs year. last year we were miles apartn it's certainly the data. >>his demographic play is interesting. there's no reason to believe the boomers won't continue to take money out of the market as they age and get rea for retirement, but what does that do for the market overall in the long run? >> that's a great question. when we look a this, and the problem with the boomers in general over the last 10 years is, there was no place for them to get eally in place. they were forced on the risk scale longerhan they should
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that over invested itself. we saw staples and reeds and utilities trading at high multiples in terms of where the shoube. so you're seeing boomers actually chase yieldhere they net it, and they're finding it in places that are now getting pensive. at's the most dangerous part of this, when there's a large populaon of peopl getting out of the market and the group behind it is slow to pick that . you depend on global demand. art hogan with nnaat l art. >> december 15th just around the rner, that's the d the new tariffs on chinese goods are set to takefft if the u.s. doesn't mak addition al progrese ♪n talks with ing. epr: dbe5 tariff deadline i days away, it's just ace ain as ever, if the two sides will be able to negotiate a deal in time to
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avoi fresh tariffs, that would be bad news for manufacturer's here that suffered in november. ports ssed, imports improved. other imports remain sluggish, leing analysts to stay cautious about the economic outloo another development that could spell trouble for u.s. china ties, the financial times is reporting that beijing has ordered all government officesu andc iti us toos to remove their foreign pc and software within three years. dubbed 352 the policy is meant toeplace 30% of foreign tech, 50% in 2021 and the remaining 20% the following year. dell, hp and microsoft stand to lose. it's unclear how quickly that en could ha since much of the chinese gear meant to replace the u.s. equipment relies . for night business report,
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beijing. >> december 15th could prove to be aritica cdal teorno a fer kayla has that part of the story. >> more than a year after the united states mexico and canada signed the replacement for nafta, the deal is getting closer to ratifition, protracted negotiations over the ndreement labor enforcement terms are nearing a tentative deal. >> comparing very good things, i'm hearing from unions and others that it's looking good, and i'm hearing a lot of strides that have been made ovela the 24 hours. >> the white house must send thl offiext to capitol hill. if that happens by december 15th, thehite house has told allies expect the house to vote on it on december 18th, one day after a potential vote on impeachment.
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two senior democratic aids say lawmakers are still studying the whine house's proposal, but note a deal is very close and could be announced within a day. for night business report, kayla towshi washington it's time to take a look at today's upgrades and downgrades. macy's was downgraded to sell from neutral. the analysts cites the deterioration in fundamentals. the price target is $12. the stock rose 2% to 15.48. 3m was downgraded from neutral to buy. investors site the 2018 peak. the price target is $180, the shares fell abo 169.83 skywork solutions was upgraded to by to tunderperform bank of america merrill lynch. the anticipated increase in mand for chips due to the growth of 5g technology.
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skyworks price targets 122. the stock rose more than 1 1/2% in today's trading session. as you likely kw by now, paul volker passed away over the weekend. he was a prominent fixture in the world of fance f more than 40 years. he servedix presidents, most famously as the chair of the federal reserve in the19s, the current fed chair and his colleagues today are dealing with a low inflation environment. and in some ways, they can thank paul volker for that. >> he is credited with taming runaway inflation in the 1980s, earning that credit wasn't easy. he was predent of the federal reserve bank of new york. at that time, economic growth was way down, but prices were
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way up. puttinghe economy in a period known as stagflation. by 1980 gdp was down to 3%, and inflation was u to 14%. >> ronald reagan was elected president in november of 1980, and he vowed to get the economy growing again. but volker who committed stopping inflation, b keeping the money supply tight and interest rates high, found himself at odds with with the president for years. >> nobody in the federal reserve, certainly not myself likes high interest rates, they're no fun. >> and they weren't. the fed funds rate reached highs 20%. six month bank cd's were paying more than %. construction slowed, farmers were reluctant t plant. even though rates began to fall in 1982. unemployment peeked at just below 11 everyone from the administration volker, he stuck to his plan and
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by 1984, inflation had plummeted to 4%. >> it's never very pleasant i suppose to tell someone that some pain in the shortun is good for the long run. >> then in si2008, pnt obama consulted volker during his presidential campaign. he later appointed him to chair th president' economic advisory board. volker backed the idea ofki br up large banks and banning them from speculative tradg tivities. a plan that came to be known as the volker itrule. too was unpopular in many circles,ut has helped restore confidence in the wake of the financial crisis. just the role volker deemed crucial as the feds celebrated it 100th anniversary in 2013. >>heisturbances demanded a response. and the point that we -- i think
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celebrate and look at today demanded a response that onl an institution equipped with thority and judgment could tily act inupon. any country. that role falls importantly to its central bank. >> the great inflation rider paul volker. ♪ in a lawsuit unsealed today, amazon said the pentagon's recent decision to award microsoft a cloud computing contract should be revisited.
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the substantial and pervasive errors and president trump's improper pressure harmed its chances of winning the $10 billion de p. thetagon says the decision was made by a team of career publicnt ser withoutxternal influence. somef the biggest mutual funds have invested billions of dollars in togy start-ups all in an effort to beat their respective benchmarks. the strategy may havelso added more risk than necessary to some widely owned portfolios. >> unicorns aren't just for venture capitalists any more. they've been getting funding from some of the biggest mutual funds. less so in the highly liquid, less transparent.rivate mark >> the mutual funds have an incentive to want to ce int those private rounds earlier, where they can get theiron
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allocaon the books, even though they may have be pushing the price of it.l >> mutua fundses got burned too. cording to data, the top 10 mutual funds collectsively held wework shares in the first half of the fi, vanguard and jackson national placed holdings o wework. only to hav t to markhem down as much as75%. another unicorn slot was juul. fidelity and american fundses had to mark down their holdings by half after its value was slashed in the private market. ride sharing is another area that has drawn the interest of mutual funds. t. rowe and vanguard were investors in uber and lyft do some of these high profile markdowns make mutual funds reconsider the strategies.
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>> if you're a mutual fund vestor and you see these markdowns, they're seeing markdowns in the public market too, certainly. if you see these domas, it's only natural you're going to pull back your risk appetite a bit. >> the next debut is expectedm o come fr test r theppetite of institutional investors. for nightly business report, deirdre bosa, san francisco. nancy joins us now to talk more about mutual funds and sometimes risky bets some have made. e is chief investment officer. welcome back, nancy, ne to s you again. >> thank you, su >> you are not a fan of this strategy at all. >> no, i think we've seen two things that can come from rsthi of all, this is not the expertise of fund managers. what we do is analyze publicly traded companies wit the track record of public accounting, and
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meeting quarterlyarnings objectives. and they're judged harshly for that. there's so much capital chasing unicorns that we've seen the encouragement inin discig -- i don't think that these companies or these mutual funds that have built tir track records on publicly traded companies should be iestingt prepublic companies. >> you have to admit, this may be the only opportunity that some individual investors, if they invest in these fus, this gives them the opportunity to participate in a market tha they wouldn't -- it was pretty much out of their reach otherwise? >> that's right, eept we're making the assumption. often times it is the assumption, but not always. if you just go back and look at snap or facebook, the early years of theseinompanies c public have not been their best
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years, snap's gone down, facebook went sideways for 2 1/2, 3 years, sometimes missing out on that initial ipo pop is not necessarily a bad thing. i think there's plenty of money to be made later, i can argue both sides, i think it's the preipo i mosobject to. recently certainly nancy, what does that tell you about the overall market >> i aually think thelop of many of these ipo's is good news for the market. for the sustainability of the mabull et, what we see is a blowoff right at the time whenh all ipo's were offered in the late '90s, tt was an indication that we were at a market top, they sored no matter what they did. many of them were amazon look-akes tha were amazon i think the fact that investors are being discriminating is t a
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gong for those of us who would like to see this bull market extend >> before we let you go, we're all remembering paul volker toda t what are yourughts on the great inflation fighter. >> that was an outsnding port, for those of us that lived it, i hadn't thoughtbout his influence and impact until today, i was so saddened, i mean, those were difficult times, we had a misery index that was in the high teens, it was difficult, we needed someone with a spine of steel, he was there despite the unpopularity. and despite the fact that reagan's administration demanded lower rates. we thought president trump invented tat. indeed it's been going on for a long time. he stood his ground. >> nancy tang letter, thanks, as alwa merck pays billions of dollars for a biotech.
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bat's where wein tonight's market focus with the drug maker ying arcual. the deal will expand its cancer treatment offerings beyonddr ig ow keytruda. shares of arcual were down. fellow drug maker sanofi is sharpening its synthorix. it aims to boost the immune system's response to cancer. the drug is ins the early sta that report sent the stock up. sanofi was down more tha 1% to 4530. canopy growth has a new ceo. constellation is canopy's
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largest shareholder, it has a 38stake. stock rose 14% today to 21-29. morgan stanley is cutting 2% of its workforce. the jobs c will come from technology and operations roles. the bank has approximately ,000 employees. 4960.tock fell a fraction to toll brothers reported better than expected earning in revenue. the home builder also reported a 35% drop in profit from a year ago, hit by lower margins from home sales. shares were volatile in after hours trading. they closed t regular session up 1% to 4142. cannything get in disney's way athe box office this weeken anotherew release was an outright flop.
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>> a big winner and a big loser at the box office this weend. the winner, disney, eclipsing its own record, becoming thet fi studio in history to top $10 billion at the worldwide box office. disney had 6 of the 10 biggest movies of the year. fueled by disney's avengersch fre lion king and frozen 2, which has grossed $920 million worldwide in two weeks. at the other end of the spectrum, a record flop, frommo play le, the movie from stx. the animatedilm was distributed to over 2,0 locations, but brought in less than $670,000 in ticket sales. the third lowest debut eve in film playingn over 2,000 locations. one reason, a meaningful e
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discount from verage u.s ticket price of $9 stx h hoped that lower ticket prices would help drive attendance. the film suffered from weak reviews. a mere 18%ositive rating. julia borstyn los angeles.t, i'm dls on carsre everywhere. discoulet some of those deep you have seen all of those end of year sale signs at auto dealers, complete with balloons and the big red bows. it's become the biggest sales
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season for automakers. phil lebea takes a look at the rising number o discounts along with the rising price of cars. >> that new car or truck you're looking at comes with a huge discount. it looks like the greatest deal er think again. >> you could advertise 20% off, i think to a lot of people that signifies a really great deal. could it have been better in the past? it could have been. but it's a clear message that's compelling with the high dollar amount will at least pique people interests. >> who can blame buyers with some discounts topping15,000. look closely, you'll see the sticker prices are also going up, way up, since 2010, they've jumped to almost $40,000. t surprisingly, the price
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buyers pay for n models have also soared,ine years ago, the average ram pickup sold f 36 grand. today the average price tops gran and it's not just rams, price have soared on virtually every new model. experts believe we will continu to see new car prices climb. >> i think for automakers, we'll continue to see the ms move up. especially as they add more content. it a more occurrence especially as the model years continue. the vehicle get me expensive, that is naturally going to go up. >> all of that means auto loans getting bigger. so is the average monthly loan payment, n at a record high. when you see an automaker off 15 or 20% off the sticker price, is it a goo newdeal? vehicle is attractive, in terms of it being percentage of the price ultimately paid, it's not going to n much different t
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it was a few years ago. phil lebeau, nightlys busin report, chicago. before we go, here's another to127, 909.eet, the dow dropped that is nightly businesspo , i'm sue herera, thanks for joining us. >> i'm bill griffith, have a great evening..
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