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tv   Quadriga - The International Talk Show  LINKTV  February 11, 2017 2:00pm-2:31pm PST

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♪ hello to very warm welcome to "quadriga," coming to you from the heart of berlin. this time around, we look at france's crucial election, where the campaign shifted into top gear with both leading candidates delivering fiery addresses. hopes to pen capitalize on the antiestablishment mood that led to the brexit vote in the u.k. and the election of donald trump in the u.s. meanwhile, emmanuel macron
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leading on the outside, and is strugglingn after becoming mired in a corruption scandal. frenchic this week -- election campaign: battle of the outsiders. to discuss it, i'm joined in the studio by three seasons analysts and observers, beginning with , germanyrson correspondent for "the independent" newspaper, who says france is being torn apart by the same forces that drove britain's brexit. he says it's time for moderate and fight to wake up before it's too late. also with us, burkhard birke from deutschland radio. he believes the french are fed up with corrupt politicians, but not necessarily with europe. that is an interesting thought. and a very well morecambe to peter craven -- a very well morecambe to -- a very warm
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, whome to pascal hugues says it's a huge opportunity for marine le pen. the election campaign has gone into full swing this past week. map out for us why this is so important for france and the people of france. pascale hugues -- pascale: the problem is the election campaigns have gotten very fiery because of scandals. ,he neustar, emmanuel macron has not unveiled his position yet. the main star that everyone would thought would probably win the election, francois fillon, is embroiled in scandal. he is a moral man and his always criticized french politics for being corrupt, and now he is
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touched by scandal. is going to profit from that because i think the ranch are so fed up. there is hardly a french political who has not been embroiled in scandal. it's amazing when you compare to germany where hardly any political person here is embroiled in scandal. the french are very, very fed up. i'm sure a lot of people will say they vote marine le pen, although she is also embroiled in scandals, although it is very strange for francois fillon. supporters,t of his conservative voters, are hesitant now and have questions for him. marine le pen has several scandals. she has employed moneymen -- money of the european parliament for her own purposes. her voters do not seem to be upset with that.
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they will still vote for her. peter: if you want to answer why a panoramic election. symptomatic of what is happening across europe, that you have a section of society suddenly starting to speak out, and they feel they have been left hind, that the result -- these are people who voted commonest and france beforehand who are now voting for le pen, and you have vast areas where society is not working. immigration has gotten possibly out of control. white trench people -- white french people are left without jobs and feel immigrants are moving into their areas, and this is all absolute fodder for just t as itionale, was in brexit in britain, and this is something happening all over europe, the question of
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which way politicians are dealing with it. in france, they found marine le pen. it looks like she will do very well in the first round, but the second round is the one that counts, and how will she do their? peter: we have been there before. i reckon if it comes than to a showdown between marine le pen and any other candidate, really, the other candidate will still win. that's my that. bet.at's my i think the republican sense, as they call it in french, will kick in at that moment. if you consider, the national front t has had about 28% of the popular vote, was the strongest party at the european election, and got two seats at the national simply out of 577. a large portion of the
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population does not feel represented parliament early -- parliamentarily. deep grudgeauses a in the population in the city's which does not reflect the real sentiment in the country. there are two guys, maybe. him? , why would i bet on he says europe can be the answer. he's the only candidate who wants to pick up those ideas of exclusion, though he himself is establishment, who says we have to work together to find a solution. is theemmanuel macron current favorite to emerge the winner from this vote. he's just about young enough to be called the new kid on the block. let's hear more about him before we continue. >> the rising star of french politics, 39-year-old emmanuel macron, founder of a new
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political party called en marche r "forward." he says for france, the best is yet to come. >> you can sum up our vision for france in three words -- liberty, equality, and fraternity. >> macron has promised to reform the labor market, improve the education system, and promote globalization. supporters see him as an antiestablishment candidate, despite the fact he is a former cabinet minister and has worked as an investment banker. macron is considered a centrist by many. he has launched scathing attacks against the right-wing populist and aste, marine le pen, a staunch supporter of the european union. but can macron deliver on the promises he has made? , insider orn
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outsider? pascale: i think he is both, and i think we are all focusing on him now. i agree with you, the electoral system normally should block marine le pen, and we had that theady in 2002 where in second round of the election it was sheer rock -- it was chiraq le pen,jean-marine marine le pen's father. there were protests in the streets. is that going to happen this time? i would think so. if it is a duel between macron and marine le pen, i would think most people, it does not matter which color, would vote for macron just to block the way for mamarine le penn. that he is very young and has been part of the government and
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promoted some quite unpopular , which wereork very, very unpopular. thousands of people in the streets for weeks and weeks. has he got enough, you know, political base even supporting him? peter: that is the question. has he got a political party really backing him? compared, it's fair to say, to barack obama or justin trudeau in canada. is that fair? does he haha enough susubstance you have to consider he has 160,000 followers -- at least that's what he pretends. in france, the party system, part of the communist party and socialist party is very volatile.
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you can found in new party within weeks. i do not think this would really be the problem. if elected president, he would make out of his movement in march, -- make out of his a new party.arche i do not think this would be the major problem. the problem is that he comes from the establishshment and pretends to be an antiestablishment candidate, but any of the candidates --melenchon from the left, hamon -- they all say they are against the system, and they mean different things. fillon means the bureaucracy. traditionaln means parties -- socialists and recover guns. it is a slogan to be against the system and france. tony: another thing and le pen -- in le pen's favors that the party has undergone a makeover since they got rid of jean-marie
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le pen. they got rid of the anti-semitic stuff, at least as densely. they had this new person behind the throne who has been the mastermind the -- ththe mastermd of the front national, which has made the party appealing little bit more to a wider spectrum of voters, and i think possibly y isti e fact that the really moving, addressing the problems of this so-called underclass that has developed across europe in a lot of societies, that is helping it. is what mayctor play against her is the fact that the socialist candidate, hamon, may take away some of the vote that would go to le pen. peter: i would like to hear what
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you have your say as the german correspondent for "the independent" newspaper. how important is it that emmanuel macron is forthrightly, ? gorously pro-european tony: he has to take on the anti-european rhetoric that le pen is delivering and face up against it. this is something that was not done in britain, that the labour that has done so badly, has had really no stance on this issue. i think it is important that he does take a stand on europe and address the positive things. peter: pascale, you are not in. dding.e: -- you are no pascale: absolutely, and i think he will be the only one. a lot of people see now that , that is very important it's our chance to resist what is quite frightening.
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peter: will this be an important moment to european politics where people in europe see the threats, perhaps, or the challenges posed bypeter: will t trump, by vladimir putin on the other side, and they think that maybe the eu -- much-maligned in recent times -- is their best bet? so.hard: i would hope i would hope to see a sort of bigger version in what happened in austria, a rejection of this crazy populism that is taking over with a lot of basically untruths in their campaigns. that the voice of reason will prevail. i think that's what most people are hoping for. burkhard: these elections take place at a crossroads of european history. just imagine marine le pen being elected, and that's the end of europe. it is really defining europe phosphate. if you have a guy like macron, who is the only real candidate of those presenting themselves at the selection that is
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pro-european because what is francois fillon? he's for europe, for the nations, not the people of europe. he sees the brexit and trump as a menace, as a bad example, but he could try to convince his people, but he's got to present his program. the latest pololl in french television says the program of the candidate, then his credibility is not corrupt. peter: you just talked about the threat posed by marine le pen for this crossroads in european history, as you describe it. let's catch up with marine le pen. she, too, likes to present herself as an outsider, despite the fact that she presents herself as -- that she comes from what might be coming that's what might be considered a political dynasty. >> she believes france is on the verge of collapse and only she can say that.
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the parties on the right and left care only about money, but i am a candidate of the people of france. also belongs to the political establishment. she has been a european him p -- mp since 2004 and has been accused of misusing funds to help her political p party. she has vowed to p put france first, renegotiate the country's status with the eu, protect against globalization, crackdown radicals, and restrict immigration. recent polls indicate le pen will likely win the first round of voting but not the second, but didn't they also failed to predict donald trump's victory? peter: tony paterson, marine le pen there. does the possibility she could win this vote mean we are at a
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crossroads of european history? tony: absolutely. have not quite got there yet, but we are moving their fast. i think what we have to bear in mind is something which has not really been a dressed in a lot of these, certainly in the brexit thing, and i do not think that much in the french presidential campaign. basically, europe is something which has guaranteed peace for quite some time. if the lightbulb can go on in people's heads that europe is something that is actually worth hanging onto because it is a , a lot off values these problems individual companies are facing are self-made or homemade problems. if something can come across in that direction, then that would
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be positive, i think. peter: fascinating thoughts. i would like to go back to marine le pen in there. each of you has been doing the she cannotng that really win this or go all the way. is that really the case? we had a quote from you where you said this was a huge opportunity. before, is i said think normally it is not possible, but we have seen so many surprises, going to bed thinking everything is fine, and getting up the next morning, and it's brexit. -- peter: at the moment, we have macron in the 60%.d round of voting, burkhard: imagine the candidates from the left unite and 60%. say we only preserved one candidate and the other becomes prime minister when the other gets elected. if they present one candidate, then the left candidate will win , come into the second round.
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if you have hamon or melenchon against le pen, then i would not bet. there are scenarios where she could really come to the presidency, but again, you have the national assembly election and the majority voting system, the front national will probably get the majority of parliamentary seats. if they unite, then there might be trouble ahead. iscale: the important thing which party is going to address the sears and the problems of the little french people? doing that?cron not is he too much a man of business? pascale: we do not know. but he is going to introduce reforms like germany did, and
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these reforms are going to be very painful, and the french do not want to leave their privilege. in the french, the people are in uproar because the age of retirement could be pushed from 62 to 65. they find it impossible. they do not want to work 39 hours a week. the social system is still very generous, and to cut that, the candidate who wants to cut that is going to be punished. talking to been people about the debate they will be having today, and a lot of people said it's interesting because there is a comparison to be made between macron and the success he is having, the surge ands on, with martin scholz germany, the former president of the european parliament, who is giving angela merkel, it appears, a run for her money.
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both pro-european. tony: both pro-european, but they have to spell that out in much bigger terms. isknow martin schulz pro-europe, but he has not actually spelled it out for germany, what it means, nor has macron. he has to unveil his program and say what europe means to an electorate that is basically , just like it was in britain. they think that brussels is an elite that is controlling their frex, and the appeal of a is of france leaving the eu there. it's not a ghost phenomenon. it is present. people feel that. to negotiatewants europe on a different contract and ask the people of europe in different countries to take their opinion and then
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renegotiate europe and to give it a new direction. that is what he said, at least in some of the meetings i attended, and that is also the principle he is applying for his own program. he is sending out all his little helpers to go to the different houses, to the people, asking them what they want, where their necessities are, why they feel excluded, and from there, he writes hisis program. they are going to be very curious what is the program, and the program will be decisive. he is aiming for the middle. he wants to break with the left and right. you are either at the right or the left -- he wants to break with that. whereas the left candidate will dispute the frustrating people, the working class afraid of losing with the globalization. pascale: when i saw him in berlin a few weeks ago, he is young, enthusiastic. he has not got this rhetoric that a lot of french political order has.
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he is simple. he is clear. i think that a appeals to peopl. only one i think now who has not got an affair -- peter: a scandal. pascale: yes, a scandal. leaves him by himself in french politics. what you think of the comparison? is that useful? are they providing a new template? pascale: it is very difficult. they are so different. they are very pro-european, both, and they are both kind of puppets that have come out -- well, i don't mean puppets. that is a bad word. peter: they have been speaking directly to the people. pascale: yes, and you have the surprise effect. they are the new candidates, unexpectedly thrown in the thecal -- the middle of political arena. but both in a very different way.
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the german has not got his a-levels. he was an alcoholic. he wanted to be a football player. then he had a bookshop. where macron is very different. he comes from the elite of the french. he was brought up in a system where he speaks very polished french. i think scholz is more chances to appeal to the ordinary german than macron to the ordinary frenchmen because macron definitely belongs to the establishment. tony: let's think beyond. chancellor scholz and president macron, europe will move forward. peter: my final question because we are running out of time. which option sends a greater shiver down your spine --marine le pen winning the election in
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france with all her divisive tendencies and her anti-european stance, or an aunt who has never been elected to public office before, or the unpredictability a man whol macron -- has never been elected to public office before? any: for me, marine le pen is no go. she is promising things she will not be able to keep. something like the grand coalition and germany. that is his policy. for me, if i was ranch, that would be the man i would vote for. pascale: may, too, without any shadow of a doubt. when we talk about marine le pen being anti-european, but it's much worse. she has polished her discourse compared to her father, but they are anti-semites. ,his is the xenophobia, racism
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keeping france for itself. the ideology behind her is very dangerous and very unpleasant to say the least. macron without a shadow of a doubt. peter: two votes for macron at the moment. tony: obviously, i agree with both of you, and another element comes in, that if she gets in, the franco german alliance, which is the motivating power, -- thatr behind europe is broken. seriously broken if she gets in, and that will mean that europe is going to start to unravel, and that is something that is a very dangerous prospect indeed. peter: thank you all for your insight. come back next week if you enjoyed the show as much as i have. bye-bye and cheers.
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♪ michelle: hello and welcome to "focus on europe." i'm michelle henery. child custody battles can be trying and brutal no matter where you are in the world. but here in europe, if the parents come from different countries and a dispute arises, national courts have been accused of routinely deciding solely in the interest of their citizens. a french father has succeeded in having courts in france award him m full custody of his daughter. the german mother, however, is only allowed a few brief supervised visisits. she says, , "i feel betrayed and

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