winston church hill's thought, there are two forms of success. in ultimate, i put my marbles on bill and hillary clinton. if you haven't noticed, quitting isn't in their game plan. that's "hardball" for now. thanks for joining us. "all in with chris hayes" starts right now. good evening from new york. i'm chris hayes. we have a full show for you tonight, including my interview with elizabeth warren coming up shortly. first, this was the scene near portland, oregon, earlier today. >> okay, we've confirmed now there's an active shooter. the sheriff's office confirming there is an active shooter at reynolds high school. >> there are a lot of people out here, even students, who hadn't quite gone into class yet, who are crying with tears in their eyes, on their cell phones, trying to find out more information. >> police would later announce

one student had been killed as well as the shooter. anxious parents rushed to the school to reunite with their sons and daughters. >> just want to hold her. just want to hold her tight. and get her home. >> just another day in a country which has now seen 74 shootings at school since the attack at sandy hook elementary school in newtown, connecticut, in december 2012. that number according to the gun safety organization everytown.org. 74. as this sort of horrific gun violence has become almost routine in america, pro-gun forces have regularly argued the only way to stop it is with more guns. this was fox news this afternoon, barely hours after the shooting stopped in oregon. >> as a parent, wouldn't you perhaps feel more secure if you knew there was somebody there, armed security, to manage and handle a situation like this? >> arming one or more people at these schools makes sense. >> that is the standard response

now, ever since that deranged press conference in response to the newtown school shooting when wayne lapierre of the nra famously said this. >> the only thing that stops a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun. >> and if that sounds foolish or childish, it's not just wayne lapierre. you hear this over and over. it's an article of faith among gun advocates in the wake of these tragedies, and an argument for more guns. >> if you had more people carrying a weapon, if people had a gun in their back and they were licensed to carry it, that guy wouldn't have gotten off more than four shots. >> having a firearm can neutralize an evil gun maniac is a way to go. >> bob costas and o'reilly are in the theater. >> yeah. >> do you want to hit the floor and hope you don't get shot or do you want to have a gun on you that you can protect yourself with? >> i don't want a gun on me. >> you look at all the gun

violence. almost all in what is called gun-free zones. >> these gun-free zones are target rich environments. >> these gun-free zones are not stopping the bad guys. >> the aurora guy actively looked for a gun-free zone. >> that was a gun-free zone, but we know what happened there. >> i love the police, i do, but they can't be everywhere. maybe our kids can be defended against criminals on the spot if more mama grizzlies carry. >> it makes it safer. >> i have a theory, gun violence is going down because of the proliferation of guns. >> i want to protect myself against that loon with a gun rather than being on the floor. >> okay. on sunday in las vegas, a couple shot and killed two police officers and a civilian before they died. and listen to this. all five of the people killed in that incident, all five of them, the shooters, the police, the civilian, every single person killed that day was carrying a gun. three good guys with guns, two

bad guys with guns, to use the language of wayne lapierre. all of them with guns. all of them dead. las vegas police officers were ambushed while they were eating their lunch, and a civilian was at walmart to return a modem and who pulled out the handgun for which he had a concealed weapons permit in a laudatory attempt to stop the one gunman he could see, joseph robert wilcox was cut down by that gunman's accomplice before he could fire a shot. now, this map shows the average number of firearms per 100 people around the world. and there's one country that jumps out there, the darkest country, the one with 70 to 100 fire arms for every 100 people. that's the one awash in guns. the idea that it just take as good guy with a gun to stop the bad guys, that more guns in the right hands means less deaths, that's destroyed by this map because no other developed country has as many guns as we do, and no other developed country has as many gun deaths. and that is not a coincidence.

>> we're the only developed country on earth where this happens. and it happens now once a week. high levels of gun violence are off the charts. there's no advanced developed country on earth that would put up with this. >> joining me now, daniel hernandez, former intern for gabby giffords. he was with her when a gunman shot her and 18 other people. he's arizona organizing director for every town for gun safety. daniel, if you don't mind talking about your experience during that shooting, i mean, there's all this ridiculous armchair conjecture in the wake of this about what would happen if more people had guns. what's your reaction when you hear people saying that, having lived through this? >> you know, having lived through what happened in tucson on january 8th, we know that's not a solution. you know, this is a smoke screen that's being used by the washington gun lobby to push forth the idea that more guns will mean less gun crimes, but what we really need to do is address the core issue which we

have done in places like nevada. you mention that nevada was a state where we recently had two people gunned down who were police officers who were armed, but the real issue is one of the people who was one of the assailants was a prohibiter possessor. he shouldn't have had access to the firearms. a year ago, i was at nevada and we passed a background check bill that governor sandoval vetoed which meant universal background checks are no longer a requirement in nevada even though it was passed by the legislature. what we need to talk about is not the fact that the nra -- >> good evening. i am sorry to interrupt. it's not like me. i'm rachel maddow here at nsnbc headquarters in new york. you're not used to seeing me at this time. i'm sorry to interrupt "all in with chris hayes" but i'm jumping in because it's now 8:06 p.m. on the east coast and we're switching up plans to start covering what is honestly a shocking development in american politics tonight. shocking is an overused term in

our political discourse, but this news tonight earns the term. at this hour, it appears that republican congressman eric cantor of virginia, number two republican in the house, the house majority leader, has lost his seat in congress in the republican primary to try to hold on to his seat. today was primary day in the commonwealth of virginia. congressman cantor came into the primary facing what he knew to be the toughest challenge he has faced from the right, a tea party challenger named dave brat. although it was expected to be a tough challenge and cantor campaigned hard, it was not expected he was in real jeopardy of losing his seat in this primary, but at this hour, the associated press has now called the race. it now appears eric cantor has lost his seat in the house. to be clear, this is not one of those races where there's going oo be a run-off or a second match or that eric cantor has some next step in terms of being

the republican incumbent trying to hold on to this seat. this is it. david brat is going to be the republican candidate for this seat in this congressional district in virginia. not eric cantor. the democrats for a long time had not even bothered to put up anybody to run on the democratic side for this race in the general election this november. eric cantor has been the number two republican in house since republicans took control of the house in the 2010 elections. it was presumed his seat was relatively safe. that's why the democrats weren't necessarily going to even bother to put somebody else against him. when mr. brat, when dave brat, the challenger, did seem to be fighting very tough race against mr. cantor, virginia democrats decided just this weekend to pick somebody to contest this on the democratic side. but now eric cantor will not be the republican in that race. it appears again the breaking news at this hour, the associated press has called this race in virginia. house majority leader eric

cantor, the number two republican in the house of representatives has apparently lost his seat. joining us now on the phone is steve kornacki, host of "up with steve kornacki." thanks very much for being with us. let me ask your immediate reaction to this and whether or not we should see this as much of a surprise as it feels like. >> yeah, my immediate reaction is this is the single biggest political upset i have ever seen in my life. we've seen high ranking leaders in congress lose elections before. you know, speaker of the house tom foley losing in 1994 in a general election. newt gingrich when he was the number two republican in the house, he got a scare in a 1992 primary. he survived that. especially in the case of foley, the speaker, though, we saw that coming. you know, weeks, even months ahead of time. it was still shocking to see it happen, but we saw it coming. this is something that nobody, and i mean nobody, saw coming.

there were rumblings that this race was closer than people would assume it was going to be. there were rumblings that cantor was getting a little nervous, maybe the margin would be embarrassing. nobody thought, right until the votes starting coming in, even as the votes were being tabulated and cantor was falling behind, everybody's assumption was a new area is going to come in, this must be a weak area. nobody saw this coming until about 50 minutes ago. this is the biggest shock i have ever seen. >> in terms of how this happened, steve, i know that congressman cantor's district is among the most conservative districts in virginia. he's never had a hard time running for re-election in his district before, seven-term congressman. in terms of where this challenge came from, obviously, professor dave brat, his challenger, who has beaten him in this primary is a first-time candidate himself as far as i know.

is this -- obviously, it's an upset because of eric cantor's position, but is this an upset we should understand as being an issue driven upset because mr. brat ran against eric cantor so heavily, especially on the issue of immigration? >> yeah, that's what we'll be hearing now, i expect, nonstop, the idea that this race signaled the republican base, the tea party base of the republican party is still as much opposed to -- as much in revolt of the concept of immigration reform as always, maybe more so than ever, because all the talk, of course, the broader national context for this race, i think you have talked about this, the broader national context, is immigration reform advocates believing there was a window that was going to open up as soon as eric cantor won. all these assumptions were that cantor was going to win and that was going to open a window. the republican primary season was going to end, cantor was going to survive and there would

be a window of one or two months where immigration reform could be brought to the house. republicans would vote against it but enough would vote for it with democrats they would get the vote they needed, and that how it might get through. it seems that that thinking, that prospect, the plausibility of that scenario really animated the republican base in this district, and it's not just in this district. there were -- if you look at it now, and there will be a bigger excavation of this in the days to come, but there were national conservative leaders who were starting to get involved in this, too, and were making noise. again, the main issue being immigration. this is one of the moments i think that just shows you the difference between we talk about so much talk about the demise of the tea party movement, the infrastructure of the tea party not being what it was two, four, five years ago. this tells you, though, that the tea party mindset, the republican party base is as strong as ever. >> steve, when you look,

especially from your historical perspective, looking back at upsets like tom foley as speaker of the house getting ousted, looking at the scare with newt gingrich, at tom daschle who had trouble holding on to their seats while they held on to leadership positions. beyond immigration that you were just describing, which is going to be mostly what people are talking about and as the country absorbs the news, beyond immigration specifically, what does it do to republicans in washington to lose their house majority leader? who does this kind of upset empower in terms of taking over the leadership of the republican party and how are house republicans going to cope with this? what is it going to change for them? >> first of all, in terms of how they think about any individual vote they cast, every republican member of congress, we talked about this, in a way, this has been the big story of american politics for the last five years. you look at sort of the reflexive opposition that defined the republican party's

response to the obama presidency, and part of that is idealogical, part is strategic, but a big part is every republican member of the senate has looked at the results, has seen christine o'donnell win in delaware, sharon engle win a nomination in nevada. has seen bob bennett, senator from utah, lose at a convention in utah. they have seen results like this, dick luger in 2012. they said all i have to do is cast the wrong vote once on the wrung issue and get on the wrong side of the tea party movement and they can take me out in a primary with literally anybody. when christine o'donnell started beating mike hastal in a primary, that's the conclusion they drew. this is sort of the ultimate example of that. the number two republican in the house losing under these circumstances in the primary, this just re-enforces the lesson that is really, i think, driven republican strategy for the last five years. if you think republicans have

been scared of their base before this, if you think republican office holders have been unduly nervous about primary challenges, wait until you see what happens after this because eric cantor can lose in a primary like this, who can't? and i think in terms of leadership, the future leadership on the republican side, this becomes a huge story because there's been so much talk this could be the end of the line for john boehner. you know, he's sort of been -- that conservative revolt we have been waiting for since the moment john boehner became speaker. he's managed to keep it at bay, but there's certainly been plenty of talk after this year's election he might go into retirement. eric cantor, it was assumed would be the next speaker. he was supposedly the republican in leadership who had a better relationship with the tea party, better relationship with the base. he was a logical successor to boehner. now it's out of the window. there's a huge leadership vacuum in the republican house. >> steve kornacki, thank you for joining us. we'll have much more on this

again, but this, again, stunning political news tonight. washington just starting to react to the news that house majority leader eric cantor has lost his seat in congress in a republican primary challenge from the right. lost a tea party challenger david brat. again, that news confirmed by the a.p. we'll be right back. they're delicious, and an excellent source of fiber to help support regularity. wife: mmmm husband: these are good! marge: the tasty side of fiber. from phillips. is all ready the brand ofstate the year.d berkshire hathaway home services. good to know. you need to see this. show 'em the curve. ♪ do you know what this means? the greater the curvature, the bigger the difference. [sci-fi tractor beam sound] ...sucked me right in... it's beautiful.

gotta admit one thing... ...can't beat the view. ♪ introducing the world's first curved ultra high definition television from samsung. good evening. we're back with more of this breaking news story out of washington. more specifically, out of virginia. a legitimate political earthquake tonight, as the house majority leader, eric cantor, republican congressman of virginia, has lost his seat in congress. he was running in a republican primary to try to hold on to his

seat in his congressional district in virginia. one of the more conservative districts, one of the republican heavy districts in virginia. david brat had mounted a tea party challenge against eric cantor. it was of interest, certainly, eric cantor seemed to be campaigning harder to hold on to the seat than before, but there was no widespread expectation, i think it's fair to say, that his job was legitimately in jeopardy. the results, the race called tonight by the a.p. for david brat, for eric cantor's tea party challenger are treated as a legitimate earthquake in american politics. nobody quite knows what this means for the future of the house republican leadership. the ongoing struggle and relationship between the republican party proper and its sort of insurgent tea party core, at this point, but as we start to absorb this news, i want to bring in chuck todd, nbc news political director, host of the daily rundown. thanks for scampering back in

front of the camera for us tonight. how did this all happen? >> look, it's a perfect storm of three things. that i think you need to understand. number one, virginia is not a state that has many primaries. so it notoriously is a low turnout primary. many congressional primaries are decided at conventions. very rarely do they go to the ballot. not a history, low turnout primaries. number two, a one issue campaign. immigration for dave brat. the third thing here is think about what has been in the news on immigration over the last 48 hours. suddenly, there was urgency to dave brat's message against eric cantor. he was hammering cantor for in particular being for a version of the dream act. eric cantor, remember, about nine months ago was coming out, he wanted to pass a house republican version of the dream act, which is essentially to give an opportunity for some citizenship or legalization for minors that were brought over that were undocumented that were brought over, you know, wasn't

their fault, was their parents' fault. what's happening on the border? there's this crisis. this has lit up talk radio. lighting up the right over the last 72 hours. think about that perfect storm. add it all together, nevermind the problems that eric cantor basically was not realizing he had on the ground at home, you know, i started to talk to people who have been telling me, rachel, over the last, and it was odd for him, over the last, i would say year or two, he was making fewer and fewer stops at home. more concerned about being a national leader. more concerned about traveling thousands of miles rather than the simple 100 miles to his district from washington, d.c. >> i spoke with steve kornacki just a couple minutes ago, chuck. he described this as the biggest political upset of his lifetime. it's obviously a surprise. but the consequence of a big upset is not just, oh, i didn't expect that to happen, but oh, it's a big deal this has happened. what do you think this does to

the republican leadership and to the republican congression aal project more broadly in washington to lose eric cantor and lose him in this way? >> it's a major upset. there have been few isolated, i have seen as i remember, a house leader going down in a primary in 1992. at that time, it was seismic because it sort of foreshadowed what was an unusual general election and the whole ross perot movement and all that. i do think, you know, we ought to look at this not as an isolated incident. there's a couple things. immigration, dead. okay? there is no -- there's going to be no stomach among house republicans, the 50 or so that would be necessary to get some form of reform. they're just going to run for the hills on immigration now between now and the next two years. that's number one. as for the impact it has on the house, i think there's going to be a lot of pressure on john boehner by many of the quote/unquote establishment to say please don't leave. there's been this quiet

assumption that boehner will go through this, re-elect the republican majority, and some time in february or march of next year decide to resign, opening, and then there would be a replacement there. and cantor had the votes. there was really no other challenger. he was the guy that straddled -- did the best among the leadership of straddling the establishment and reaching out to this tea party wing of the house republicans. so i think there is a big vacuum. certainly in the short term. the only person who could fill it other than john boehner is paul ryan. and paul ryan still wants to look at running for president moreso than he does want to be speeblger of the house. but i wouldn't be surprised if there was pressure on paul ryan. if boehner doesn't want to stay, and there's thought he doesn't, he would like to spend a few years quote/unquote going making money before they hit their true retirement years, you could see a lot of establishment pressure on paul ryan who is even better at straddling the establishment tea party line of the republican

party. >> doesn't this contrary take on this, doesn't this potentially open the way for a full-on tea party challenger to the establishment leadership, to the paul ryans and john boehners of the house republican leadership to say you're the old generation, we're ascendant and you ought to get out of the way? >> i hear you, but the numbers aren't there. there's enough of the insurgent class to make a difference in leadership. there's not enough to take over leadership. okay, so that's the -- i think that's the issue there. it's why you need somebody -- now, maybe it takes somebody that's of more of the closer to the tea party, more 60/40 tea party establishment. a guy who makes the most sense is a guy named tom price, a georgia republican. he declined to run for senate because he wants to move up in leadership. he has more trust of the tea party, i would argue. comes from the south where really the tea party's base is the south. that's the other thing that i think that there's a misconception that the tea party

in many ways is national when it comes to republicans. where they really see success and have moved the party to the right has been in the south, and eric cantor is now prime example number two. thad cochran could be number one this year. >> chuck todd, msnbc political director and host of the daily rundown. this is incredible news. >> joining us now is josh barrel. contributor and for the upshot at the "new york times." i thank you for skramperring in front of the camera for the breaking news. let me ask you in terms of what this signifies frk why this happened, this isn't one of those races where all the outside groups and club for growth and the tea party groups who want to be players were necessarily involved the way they were with chris mcdaniel and thad cochran were, right? >> right. obviously a huge part of what has been effective for the tea party has been billionaire money and outside forming from

washington, but this was a guy who had very little of that support and was written off not just by the national media and the establishment republicans but by the tea party themselves. >> we're going to wrap you for a second so we can go to eric cantor who is about to make live remarks upon having lost his seat in the republican primary of virginia. let's go to eric cantor live. >> obviously, we came up short. and there's so many people in here i want to thank. first of all, i want to thank my wife, diana. [ applause ] who's put up with me and elected politics now for 20-some years. and in the process, raised our kids, one of whom is here tonight, the other two are off working. my mother-in-law, my mother, brothers. thanks, because it all starts with family, we know that. so i want to thank them.

and then to all of you, so many of you who not only today spent endless hours in the heat with your undying loyalty and effort, i want to thank you for that as well. and i tell you, absolutely. it's not only the hundreds of volunteers here. it's also, you know, my team, both my team that have served the constituents of the seventh district both here and the district office, have continued to serve the seventh district constituency in washington and culpepper, but also my political team. they have put in so much extraordinary work to try and win this campaign, but have done so for the last decade or more. so i want to thank them.

now, serving as the seventh district congressman and then having the privilege to be majority leader has been one of the highest honors of my life. and you know, what i set out to do and what the agenda that i have always said we're about is we want to create a virginia and america that works for everybody. and we need to focus our efforts as conservatives, as republicans, on putting forth our conservative solutions so that they can help solve the problems for so many working middle-class families, that may not have the opportunity that we have. we can also put our solutions to work for the most vulnerable. i spent a lot of time on charter schools and education opportunity, to make sure that

everyone in america can have access to that american dream starting with the quality education. you know, we talked about, you know, research a lot in my office and in our campaign, and in congress. i'm really proud of the gabriella miller kids first research act. because what it says as conservatives that we don't believe you ought to spend taxpayer dollars on political conventions that in fact it's probably better to help cure disease because not only do you save lives and help people, you can ultimately solve the federal deficit problem by bringing down health care costs. so these are the kinds of things that i know will continue to work on. you know, i know there's a lot of long faces here tonight. and it's disappointing, sure.

but i believe in this country. i believe there's opportunity around the next corner for all of us. so i look forward to continuing to fight with all of you for the things that we believe in for the conservative cause because those solutions of ours are the answer to the problems that so many people are facing today. thank you all very, very much. [ applause ] >> just a remarkable live scene tonight in virginia, in the seventh congressional district in virginia as house majority leader eric cantor gives essentially his concession speech after being beaten in his republican primary by tea party challenger named dave brat. associated press called this race not that long after polls closed. this was not a close race, as you can see, with at least 83% of precincts reporting, a 12-point gap between mr. brat

and mr. cantor with mr. cantor coming in on the wrong side of it. mr. cantor smiling, putting on a brave face. repurposing parts of his stump speech, such as it was from the campaign. professing disappointment, acknowledging seeing long faces in the crowd, but pledging to continue to fight for the conservative cause. now, i should mention that this is a slightly different situation than eric cantor losing the general election. in the sense that this is not november. this doesn't necessarily look like a final loss of his seat. but after all, we saw lisa murkowski lose to joe miller in alaska and she came back and won. it does not look like any opportunity like that is here. this is done. eric cantor has lost the primary. second of all, as far as we understand it, and i will stand corrected if this preliminary understanding i have is wrong, but as far as i understand it, virginia has what is called a sore loser law which says if you lose in the primary, you can't

be on the ballot for the general election. so if anybody was under the assumption he said he was going to fight for the cause, he was going to come back as a independent to hold on to his seat, as far as i read the virginia sore loser law, he cannot do that. according to the virginia statute, as i said it, quote, if defeated in the primary, the candidate's name is not to be printed on the ballot for the office for the succeeding election. if your name is not printed on the ballot, the other way you can run is as a write-in candidate the way lisa murkowski did. i saw nothing from the concession speech we saw moments ago. brave face as it had, i saw nothing from the concession speech moments ago that indicated that he would be planning to run a write-in campaign to try to hold on to his seat. you never know, but at this point, this is what he would have to do. i want to go back now to josh, msnbc contributor. josh, looking at eric cantor

there essentially saying good-bye to his district, what are the new dynamics among republicans in congress, both losing their majority leader and seeing him lose in this way? >> well, i think chuck todd was right, that this means immigration reform is dead, if it wasn't already dead. because this was really basically a single issue race about immigration. sort of remarkable to me about the speech that cantor just gave that it didn't touch at all on why he lost the election. i don't blame him. i don't think he was expecting this and i'm sure that's something he'll be reflecting on. when republicans in washington look at this, they're going to say this was an issue where we really crossed our base. even by talking about the issue. i think the politics of immigration are basically impossible for republicans. national watchers talk about it like why don't they get immigration reform over it because they're shooting themselves in the foot with hispanics and foreign voters but they hate the idea of amnesty

for 7 million immigrants who are already here, even if you don't call it amnesty, they still hate the idea. there's basically no course of action for them on the issue that doesn't deeply upset some part of the electorate they need to apply to. >> you end up not in every district in the country, not in every republican district in the country, but in some republican districts in the country, you end up with a message on immigration reform that is so loud, it obscures the contrary misedge that republicans could appeal to appearing in favor of immigration reform. i mean, the numbers writ large are absolutely in favor of republicans acting on this issue, but in the small microcosmm fights, it ends up being the end of the world, including for this high-ranking republican. this is going to be a lesson that echoes loudly for them. >> and eric cantor in this race was sending out mailers saying he was fighting against president obama's plan to give amnesty to illegal aliens.

he was sending out these fire-breathing mailers that tried to make him sound like his opponent on the issue and he still wasn't able to overcome it. the lesson for republicans is even touching the issue, and cantor was clearly going to be part of the coalition that was necessary if there was going to be a republican deal to get immigration reform done, even that seems to have done him in. >> josh barrel, contributor for the "new york times" and msnbc, thanks. we have much more ahead on this breaking news. again, house majority leader eric cantor, number two republican in congress, john boehner is the speaker, eric cantor runs the house for john boehner, including deciding what things get voted on and what things don't, eric cantor has lost his seat tonight in virginia in the congressional district number seven in virginia that he represented for seven terms in his concession remarks, which we aired live just a moment ago, mr. cantor gave no indication he may try to run a write-in campaign to try to hold on to his seat.

it seemed like he was saying good-bye. i will stand corrected if he changes his mind. we'll have much more ahead in just a moment with chris hayes. i'll be back at 9:00 eastern. we'll be right back. stay with us. usiness. and i get a lot in return with ink plus from chase. like 50,000 bonus points when i spent $5,000 in the first 3 months after i opened my account. and i earn 5 times the rewards on internet, phone services and at office supply stores. with ink plus i can choose how to redeem my points. travel, gift cards, even cash back. and my rewards points won't expire. so you can make owning a business even more rewarding. ink from chase. so you can. now they're part of our 2 for $25 guest favorites!r one olive garden dishes. get your all-time favorites

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now, serving as a seventh district congressman and then having the privilege to be majority leader has been one of the highest honors of my life. and you know, what i set out to do and what the agenda that i have always said we're about is we want to create a virginia and america that works for everybody. >> we need to focus on efforts -- >> that was eric cantor in one of the most stunning political upsets in recent memory, in a long, long time. first in the history a republican appears that the sitting house majority leader losing in a primary in his own

party tonight to a here to fore obscure college professor named david brat, a man whose wikipedia page was about two lines and about $40,000 in the bank in his fund-raising who is now looking to be the next congressman to represent the seventh district of virginia, the district eric cantor has represented for seven districts. one of the shining lights of the republican party. part of a young generation that saw themselves as on the pathway to taking over the republican party, fell tonight in a stunning, stunning upset. joining me now to discuss it, josh barrel, msnbc contributor, editor of the upshot for the "new york times." >> i read the washington post article about it, and i don't mean to bag on the post, inthe question is what the margin of eric cantor's victory will be. it appears it will be negative. >> i'll give you tomorrow's spin

today. immigration, immigration, immigration. we saw immigration was hotly contested in this district specifically. mailers were going back and forth on each side of the issue. cantor clearly felt the heat coming from his right because he had to send out a mailer saying he opposes the president's amnesty plan. the lesson that will be taken away, whether or not it's the truth, is cross on immigration. cross fox news, cross rush limbaugh on immigration and you're toast. that will be another ten years, another ten years with a broken immigration system. that's my fear. >> i don't know about ten, but yeah, i think it's certainly another several years. i think this was already the instinct of most republicans in congress, which is why there hasn't been a vote on it yet in the house. because it's just an impossible issue for republicans. they fear what will happen to them, what happened to eric cantor. >> they fear they won't get credit, that it will happen to them, and let's be clear. the timing is important. the story of the nogales,

arizona, unaccompanied minor children has been everywhere for the last three or four days. you had dave brat who talked to chuck todd who said if you want open borders, vote for eric cantor. >> that's right. on the flipside frk what you said about not getting credit, if they go ahead on immigration, not only will they anger their base, they're get this influx of these hispanic, some asian voters who will break the republican party. they see it as hazardous now. >> it's primary night in south virginia as well. there's another story, the flipside, lindsey graham. cosponsor on the bill that passed the senate, the same bill eric cantor was attached to, who appears at this early juncture to be cruising to re-election, to winning. what's the lesson there? >> you also see john boehner a month ago, fending off very easily sort of similar

grassroots tea party challenges even though john boehner is as complicit or more than eric cantor than any treason of the base in the last four or five years. part of the answer is with boehner, he's an authenting or apparently authentic person people perceive as trying his best in a very difficult situation. people kind of like him, and he has deep roots in ohio. with lindsey graham, even though he sorts of seems to enjoy fighting with the more conservative parts of the republican base, he's also an authentic figure and a deeply rooted republican, and i think cantor was becoming a national republican politician, all about being majority leader, wanting to be the next speaker. i suspect the local activists in his district felt very disconnected from him. a month ago, they had this election for the republican party district leader in the seventh district. >> that's right. >> a very, you know, inside baseball thing. and cantor's hand-picked candidate got defeated by a tea party candidate.

>> in retrospect, that looks quite prophetic, and there's going to be more individual things that happen in that district, in eric cantor's district maintenance and relations that led to this moment. tonight, though, shock waves across the political world. really, this is a really unexpected result. truly and genuinely unexpected result. we'll discuss it more. he loses in the primary in virginia's seventh district to david brat. we'll talk about it more after this break.

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morning, chuck. happy to be on. thanks. >> define amnesty for me. what does that mean? i hear the word thrown around and everyone has a different definition. what does it mean to you? >> yeah, i think the working definition out there is pathway to legalization and citizenship. in that instance, eric cantor is the author of the house principles, which allows for 6.5 million illegals to become legal

and gain a pathway to citizenship. and he's been in favor of the dream act, the kids act, and the liz act which all follow that definition of amnesty. in the primary for the last two weeks he said he's against that. >> you heard david brat talking to my colleague chuck todd, i believe this morning, before the stunning upset tonight in the seventh district where he has pulled off something no one has done since 1899. that is defeat the house majority leader, the sitting house majority leader, and he's done ittane primary and it's still unclear if that has ever been done in the history of the republic. david brat campaigning hard on immigration and taking a hard right stance on immigration against eric cantor, apparently successfully. 56% to 44% with 83% of presirngs reporting. joining me now to discuss this shocking news is steve kornacki, host of "up" and ari melber, host of "the cycle." here's what's amazing about that

clip. it wasn't the senate bill that david brat was attacking eric cantor on. it was the fact he was the author of the principles. now, everyone who followed the immigration debate in congress understood the principles as largely a stalling mechanism, they're a way of republicans trying to get out of this. they had to do something about immigration but didn't want to move the ball. it was just having his name attached to principles that in the abstract, it would be a good idea if these millions of people who were here under completely gray legal coverage be moved to the mainstream of american path to citizenship was enough. >> that was enough and i don't believe we view this as solely a policy based issue. this is ang are. there are nremnants of the tea party who don't trust anybody in washington, even those who try to do most of their bidding most of the time, that was eric cantor. he was, as we know, to the right of john boehner. >> as he let us know through

intermediaries who were presumably leaking to the press. >> the thed line is this is a historically extraordinary shift that is going to affect the republican party, the future of the white house agenda, and also reflects the fact the tea party is so angry, it doesn't even like its own puppet which is the role that eric cantor auditioned for and played for years now. >> what strikes me is there's this way of looking at the tea party's batting percentage that is totally out of whack. how many tea party express -- how many sarah palin endorsed candidates have to win? they don't have to win. they just have to win once in a while. they just have to win enough to send a message. >> it's about winning sometimes and it's also about looking what the people who are beating tea party candidates are using, saying. there's the literal tea party. wetened to think about paul tblg tz as a top down thing. what party supports which candidate, what interest group

supports which candidate. that's the way we look at the tea party. it's not really a top down thing. it's a mindset. it's a mentality. it's true, the idea of entrechment. there are policies, and immigration is one of them. this is definitely a situation where i think you can say well, cantor's fingerprints weren't all over the senate bill, but you have a republican base responding to what they're hearing. there's a window that's about to open up. all cantor has to do is win the primary, and all republicans have to do is put this on the floor and 30 republicans will vote for it and immigration reform will be law. they want to put the brakes on it. look at the common thread when you look at the people felled by this. thad chalk rn, 36-year senate incumbent. bob bennett, 18 years. these are lifers. >> they came to be seen -- and eric cantor was a creature of d.c. totally, right? he was seen that way. he was a very prominent national politician. i want to bring in chuck todd,

host of the daily rundown on msnbc. you know who i want to talk to tonight more than anyone? rick perry. rick perry has been there. he stood up on that stage in the 2012 republican primary, and he had to defend the university of texas giving in-state tuition to, quote, illegals, and lee got creamed. and right now he's watching this news and he's been where eric cantor has been. >> he has and he has seen the entire texas republican party be taken over by folks to the right of rick perry, particularly on the issue of immigration. look, the issue of immigration. we talk about this and i was glad to hear steve do this. we talk about the tea party and we think, oh, it's debt and all this stuff. what truly animates the republican base right now this election year is one issue. it's been immigration. when you need to sort of win in the end, when you see last-minute desperate attacks from somebody behind on republican primaries, it's always been on the issue of immigration. they drop the a-bomb, if you will, amnesty, and everything becomes amnesty, amnesty,

amnesty. think about this race, though, chris, and i apologize if this has been repeated. there was a perfect storm here for mr. brat. you had an issue that he had been harping on the entire time, immigration. in particular, hammering cantor for being for a version of the dream act, which had to do with minors. what's been happening for the last 72 hours? massive national coverage to a humanitarian crisis of unaccompanied minors crossing the border. it gave urgency to dave brat's message. he had the only, i would say, professional support he had behind him was the talk radio world. and this was -- so put it all together. low turnout, and the issue hits. that's how all this happened and how somebody gets blindsided. what happens when you get blindsided in american politics? we have seen it here. most primaries in virginia are not done -- are not done with actual voters. they're usually done at conventions. obvious laes, eric cantor didn't want a convention or he would

have gotten smoked. >> this was the far preferential term for cantor. he's sitting there tire tracks on the head saying what the heck happened? >> i'll tell you quickly and i have been talking to a bunch of people down there. they say a couple things. about a month ago, eric cantor tried to have his way at one of these count aconventions to pick the new conventional boss in his county. brat's people won that little skirmish. that was sort of a month ago, the signs were there. no amount of money was going to salvage him, though. that's what's going on, though. this isn't about money. this was about he lost touch with his local base. >> chuck todd, steve kornacki, and ari melber. ari will be back at 10:00. he doesn't have the beard. tune in. all right, we will be back with more coverage of the stunning, stunning upset tonight in virginia. eric cantor, house majority leader goes down in defeat to a

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>> every day, luke 18:27, jesus applied what is impossible with man is possible with god. i want to give special thanks to someone who is with me every single day in my ups and downs. that's my loving wife, laura. where are you? and mother of my two great kids who didn't see dad for the last six months, donovan and sophia. let me say thanks to the man who worked 18-hour days when i was passed out and exhausting from giving talks with people. my campaign manager zach werall.

and right -- >> we appear to have lost the signal of the live comment from david brat, the triumphant candidate who has defeated eric cantor. he's an economics adviser at a local college. he wasn't on anyone's radar screens a few months ago, and even going intoalist weekend, he was written off. joining me, dorian warren and christina belin tony. quickly, your reaction? >> oh, my gosh. well, we're downstairs shredding the front page right now. it's the newspaper that covers capitol hill, this was a pretty big deal. our front page tomorrow will say stunner, because it is. democrats we talked to,

operatives across the state of virginia were completely not expecting this. people are studying election law to see if it's at all possible for him to do a write-in campaign. this is major for leadership consequences, with john boehner under pressure, it's a big thing. >> one of the issues was the corruption in washington. he was talking about bills being for sale in washington. i wonder how much that played a role as well? >> absolutely. especially if cantor's base didn't turn out, we'll crunch the numbers tomorrow, but he generated more voters, more conservative voters to come out and vote for him. this is one of the small races, small examples, rather, where people don't make the difference. >> 25-1, you don't see that go in that direction, and at some point, it didn't help cantor to

outraise him because it confirmed what his party thought about him, or at least the republican members. that's it for "all in" tonight. "rachel maddow show" starts now. >> good evening. i'm sorry to have bobbled everything in your show. >> it's a long story, but i appreciate it. >> thanks, and thanks to you at home for being with us. it's 9:00 eastern in new york, and we're covering our coverage of what has truly been a startling development in the world of american politics. some saying it is the biggest political upset in their lifetime said. we can report that eric cantor, number two in the republican house of congress, has lost his seat. he was widely considered next in line to be speaker of the house. there was much speculations to the timing of