corruption, while crowning himself as the one honest person in national politics. why would he do that? why would we not just run against hillary clinton? why run against everyone else who's been elected to serve in washington there? you're as good a judge as i am. what i know what is he's doing is saying something that is simply not true. and that enough should be reason to ditch this tv ad before it sells another citizen on something that is simply not a fact. and that's "hardball" for now. thanks for being with us. our special coverage of the new york primary continues now. i am so glad to be back in the bronx. >> these are my people! we're going to win and we're going to win so big. an epic battle for the empire state. unleashing a war of words. >> i do question her judgment. >> they have questioned my judgment, well, the people of new york voted for me twice. >> can kasich and cruz slow down trump on his home turf?

>> this is america. we don't pledge allegiance to a man, we pledge allegiance to a flag. >> it ain't over till it's over. >> a republican system is absolutely rigged. it's a phony deal. >> and can sanders pull off his biggest upset yet? >> i think we've got a surprise for the establishment. if we have a large voter turnout we're going to win this thing. >> this is msnbc's special coverage of the new york primary. >> good evening. in one hour's time the polls will close across the state of new york. for our coverage of the new york primary we will have our first characterization of the results of the race in one hour's time. this is turning into a night that may make the math close to impossible for anyone not named clinton or trump. and because of this event tonight we're joining you on location here in new york.

>> it was our best commute yet. >> fantastic. >> has to be said. when last we looked in on our front-runners and they are at this auspicious point both of them right now, it was two weeks ago on the republican side and donald trump was getting stomped in wisconsin by ted cruz. ted cruz beat trump there by 13 points. it looks like donald trump is going to more than repay that favor tonight in his home state of new york. ted cruz -- the polling says he's looking at a third place finish tonight. donald trump is aiming at a potential sweep in new york. it just looks to be a huge night for him. on the democratic side, our front-runner there has not won a state since arizona on march 22nd. bernie sanders has won seven states in a row, leading up to tonight. but none of those wins big enough to put him within shooting distance math machi of this nomination. there is this overall question, a troubling question for a lot of democrats and liberals right now, as to whether or not bernie

sanders' campaign has become about something other than the math of winning the nomination. the fact that he outspent her in new york and more negative ads than we have seen yet from the sanders campaign, he outspent her 2-1, is raising real questions about what's going on in that race. he has fought like the diccens to win new york. the polls say that bernie sanders will luth to clinton but the campaign is clear they're saying they're going did win tonight. a lot of drama on the democratic side and increase currents. >> we'll have it all over the course of the evening joined by our team here in the studio. chris matthews who is in brooklyn bridge park tonight, where earlier he was raps diesing about the beauty of it all. and chris that really is one of the great views of the city of new york where you are. >> it sure is. so iconic. by the way, throughout the evening i'll comment on what i think rachel, the brilliance of what rachel just said. there is a lot of intrigue about what the sanders campaign is about right now. i want to say something about donald trump and his campaign,

however, which is much easier to basically score right now. i've seen few campaigns that are such a tore deforce as his effort the last couple of weeks. he came into this town and took occupation of this city. he used that issue of new york values and shoved it right in the face of ted cruz. you can't call a citied so come and gomorrah one week and say you love it the next. he made him pay for that. new york, if you read david reese man, lonely crowd this city, when you come for a world's fair in the old days, the cab driver says have you been to "our" fair yet? it's our mets, our yankees, our knicks, our rangers. this city thinks of itself as a city. as part of it. it's like a small town that way. for him to make fun of this town, you're going to see some numbers that make nobody in the future of american politics is going to talk trash about new york city or new york state again after what you'll see happens to mr. cruz tonight. it will not be a welcome mat for

him here in the city. back to you guys. >> chris matthews at the brooklyn side of the brooklyn bridge along the east river there. we'll be going back numerous times throughout the evening. we have a number of folks at polling locations tonight. remember the polls close coming up here 9:00 ear tistern time. we're inside 50 minutes. jake sob silveroff at co-op city, the bronx along i-95, a collection of high rises laid out in a pattern so large it is plainly visible from space. jacob? >> over 500 acres here. not only is it the biggest cooperative housing development in the world, it's the biggest polling place in new york city, it is the biggest polling place in the united states of america. this is really an extraordinary thing to see an exercise in democracy right now. the after work crowd is coming in but already 3,000 people have shown up here to vote. not only 3,000 people shown up here to vote but a lot of hillary clinton and bernie sanders folks are coming through

here and it's a hotly contested election in this area. hillary clinton was in this very room just last week rallying her supporters. i've been told by people that run the polling place that a good amount of bernie sanders supporters have been coming through. it's not just battleground new york, it is not just battleground the bronx, it is battleground co-op city. >> jacob, thanks. we'll go pack to you. to katy tur who's outside trump tower in midtown manhattan. we'll let you guess whose headquarters that is for tonight. katy, the question is, will tonight be the last night of the first phase of the trump campaign? and i'm speaking about the changes in direction and the new personnel that they have said they'll be bringing on. >> i think we're going to see it. i think his victory speech will be very indicative of how much influence the new folks on his campaign, people like paul mannifourth, rick riley. is he going to stay on message?

is he going to talk about new york values? is he going to be forward looking? will he not ramble? if that is the case i think you're seeing their message and strategy is coming across. the campaign feels really good about new york. they know it's going to be a big win. it's just by how much and whether or not they're able to sweep all the delegates. frankly they are looking forward, looking ahead. they've got $20 million sources tell me they're going to spend to get through july. they're looking at places like rhode island, connecticut, pennsylvania. they believe they're going to do well in those areas. and if they do, then they're going to be able to go into indiana in a strong position. indiana right now is the real wild card. there's not a lot of reliable polling coming out of indiana. so donald trump loses that state, it could be the last straw that keeps him from getting the nomination, or if he wins that state, he could walk into the convention in july with the nomination clinched. but it all comes down to doing well tonight and doing well on the april 26th primaries.

it is the northeast and this is a place that is frankly tailor-made for donald trump. >> katy, i presume we're going to hear from him in a ballroom setting at some point? >> we're not actually, we're in the lobby of trump tower. and it is a real cluster out here, brian. there's more media than there are fly on this the wall, put it that way. but he's going to be in the lobby, we're told he'll be here at 9:00, there are some bedazzled guests of his downstairs but being kept separate for some reason, we haven't had a chance to speak to them. do expect donald trump to come out around 9:00 when the polls close. >> we amend our remarks, katy tur in the lobby of trump tower in midtown manhattan. sheraton times square is the clinton campaign tonight. after some 30 campaign events in new york, one of the two new yorkers running on the democratic side, various clinton aides are out and predicting

victory tonight, kristen welker. for all the reasons rachel and others have laid out already tonight, it's complicated. >> it's very complicated. look, clinton campaign officials say they feel confident heading into tonight. at the same time they're down playing expectations that they're going to get that double-digit win that the polls have been signaling. they say it could be single digits. and of course that is significant because if secretary clinton does win by double digits, she could all but put this race out of reach mathematically. that is the goal, though. that is why she has been barn storming this state along with former president bill clinton. he's held four campaign events alone in recent days just to give you a sense of the pace of campaigning here. and the secretary has really based her argument on two points. one, that she's a new yorker. she's served two terms as senator here. number two that she is in her words the practical progressive who likes to get things done. senator sanders giving her a real opening there after that

interview he did with the new york daily news and sort of struggled to explain how he would actually carry out some of his policy positions. now we have seen this race getting increasingly uglier as you all have been talking about. and the real question for the sanders campaign is if secretary clinton does in fact pull out a huge victory, how is he going to land this plane? how will he end his campaign? will he continue with the heated rhetoric? sanders' campaign officials tell me they have no intentions of tiling back the rhetoric. we'll have to see if they stand by that. earlier today, speaking in washington, d.c., secretary clinton called for unity. expect to hear a lot more of that theme in the coming days, particularly if she has a big win here tonight. >> kristen welker, thanks so much. among the reasons it's complicated, national polls showing democratic voters really neck and neck between sanders and clinton. and on the republican side, in the history of our polling, no candidate has had a gulf between

positive and negative, underwater by 41 points, until donald j. trump of new york. part of the reasons why tonight's complicated. >> to be both winning and that disliked is a portrait of the american voter. and not necessarily a portrait of the candidates. that itself is worth a number of novels and we'll probably inspire them. i want to talk about the prospects for donald trump tonight, though. he is leading by a considerable amount in the new york polls. and that raises the question not necessarily of whether or not he's going to win, it feels pretty sure that he's going to win. but given that, what counts as a good night for him tonight? for that we go to steve kornacki. >> let's take a look at the big board. so yes, the question for donald trump tonight is how good of a night is this going to be? the best possible night for donald trump is he gets all 95 delegates. coming into tonight, this is where he stands. donald trump now his lead less than 200 in the delegate count against ted cruz. it's been a rough couple of

weeks for cruz. he can add to that tonight, there's very much a possibility he clears 1237, the magic number in this primary. new york and how he does here tonight is key. take a look, this is what we're going to be watching as returns come in. if donald trump gets past 50% in the statewide vote he's going to pick up 14 delegates for doing that. where the real action is tonight, the real question for donald trump is those other 81. and how are they given out? there are 27 congressional districts. that's what each one of these colors is here. a different congressional district in new york. each one of them gets three delegates. that's a total of 81. if you're donald trump, your magic number in every single one of these districts tonight is 50. if you get more than 50%, you get all three delegates from that district. if you get less than 50%, you've got to split them 2-1 with whoever comes in second. for trump it's clear 50% statewide, that's 14. then can you clear 50% in all of

these districts? that would be a total of 81, that would give him a 95 for 95 sweep. the real wild card, it's right down here, it's tiny on your map. but new york city, this makes up so much of the population in the state. you see there are 12 congressional districts that touch new york city tonight. here's the thing about these districts. these are some of the least republican parts of america. in fact, the single least republican district of all 435 in this country is in new york city. you have some of these districts, republican districts, where you're going to have tens of thousands of people voting tonight. these new york city districts, you could have a couple hundred people turning out in the republican primary. they get three delegates. so it's a huge wild card tonight. for all the polling we have statewide, we have tiny pockets here where nobody knows what's going to happen but they're very, very important. >> steve kornacki. >> at least we have that going for us. >> exactly. in the bronx -- every congressional district has got the same number of people, you might have 200 republicans total

turning out and voting in a primary. it's fascinating. let's go to chuck todd who's in the newsroom. chuck, that same question that we just put to steve in terms of what counts as a good night here? the trump campaign wants to sweep. seems like that will be hard to do. what does count as good and consequential for him? >> i think anything north of 80 delegates is a good night for him. ted cruz finishing in first place, not second place, is a good night for him. it is amazing looking at what we're seeing is that trump seems to not only be in a good position, he's going to erase every delegate gain ted cruz has made since the arizona primary. and since the utah, when he split delegates from there, where cruz went on that run. i think he netted maybe 65 delegates total. and cut into trump's lead. tonight trump is likely to erase all of those gains. remember, it took cruz something like seven states to do that.

and all those conventions. and trump's going to do it in one night. then what happens next week? i do think a good night tonight is net 80, cruz in third, and everybody asking, what happened to the stop trump movement? did they miscalculate? did ted cruz get suckered into new york mistakenly? should he have been in pennsylvania a week ago? should they have been in maryland a week ago? i think there's going to be a lot of stop trump people waking up tomorrow morning going, oh my god, we messed up. >> and however much they still desire to stop donald trump, the calendar tonight and next week for ted cruz is so dire. that even if they still want to stoop him, he may not be the vehicle to do that. fascinating. >> kevin bacon at the end of "animal house." remain calm, indiana! there's a long way to go before the magic of indiana is going to save the stop trump movement. >> trampled and flattened by the band, for the record. chuck todd always good for a cinematic reference. when we come back a member

of our special television family who in fact wrote a column this week asking if it's too late for the stop trump forces. that and more as we count down to the closing of the follows in the city so nice they named it twice. new york, new york.

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now as many of you know, there is as we speak, right this moment, there is a democratic primary taking place in new york state. now, the polls don't close there until 9:00 p.m. so we don't know who is going to be winning or losing. but you know what? we're going to do a lot better i think than people thought we would. >> we are back with you here in the studio in new york. that was bernie sanders in state college, pennsylvania, tonight. a rally in pennsylvania before

the polls close in new york the night of the new york -- >> that sometimes works. when candidate dozen that. we saw the last primary night where bernie sanders won in wisconsin. he wasn't in wisconsin. he was in laramie, wyoming. he went on to win wyoming a few days later. sometimes it works. i actually crunched the numbers on this today, looking at these candidates who preview the next race on an election night. and it works about half the time. that by showing up somewhere down the calendar, it helps them out with that next race. so you never know. hillary clinton on the night of the wyoming caucus was in new york. so maybe that was her way of presaming a victory. >> we should introduce our friends who join us here. >> hello. >> nicole wallace, veteran of so many gop efforts, among them bush and mccain, welcome to you. robinson, a pulitzer prize winner and pulitzer board

business, a series of awards they hand out, you might have heard of them. eugene, truth be told, you're the one who wrote is the stop trump movement too late? >> it's true. i tried to crunch the numbers, i tried to do the math. we all expect trump to have a big night tonight. and then we go into the five northeastern states next week where he's expected to do well, so far as there is polling he's way, way ahead. so he's going to have a delegate haul. he could be 400 delegates ahead of ted cruz. a couple of weeks from now. and so then, you know, the sort of percentage of delegate that is he needs to win, well, he needs to win 68% of remaining delegates! that keeps going down. and it starts looking more likely that he gets to the number, or that he gets close enough so that uncommitted

delegates can be persuaded to vote for him, so that the party eld elders, those who remain, the remains of the establishment -- >> i think that's us. >> exactly. and so what establishment is left to coordinate this whole stop trump thing. i've never quite believed in that. i think if he gets close, think he's going to get the nomination. >> nicole, that's the question to you. is this still a life where you wake up every day in an existenti existential, my party's being torn apart crisis? >> yes. but let me -- gene was smart enough -- >> you don't want to talk about it? >> let me look back. we're all in therapy and this is part of the process, rehash what has happened. trump announced his candidacy in june. and it was many, many months before national review came out with the stop trump issue. the anti-trump super pacs came.

the #stoptrump which is all over twitter. didn't exist while there were 17 republicans running for the republican nomination. it didn't really get going and it didn't get its legs under it until he was way ahead in delegates. >> so it was clear that everybody else was going to fail. >> it wasn't until people started voting. and the stop trump movement always had as a strategic pillar a need for there to be a two-man race but nobody called kasich and cruz. we still have a three-man field. there's no way to stop trump from winning the most delegates so the stop trump movement has always been a little bit of a fairy tale. >> if john kasich or ted cruz evaporated for some reason this evening and it went to a two-man race, it wouldn't make any difference in the stop trump movement. >> now, but it could have months ago. >> months ago, exactly. >> among is 16 candidates, who was good enough to play that role? apparently none of them. >> any one of them. >> well, that's the problem. >> and he always benefited --

people talked about this republican primary like it was taking place in lanes. there were never lanes, it was a roller derby and the republicans smashed each other up and bangs each other up and really only crushed each other. trump went largely unscathed until people started voting for him. >> people tried to attack trump, just didn't work, voters liked him anyway. the bottom line there, republican voters like donald trump more than they like any of the other guys. and that's going to be the end of the story for the republican issue. >> i don't think the other candidates frankly found a way to attack trump. >> that's right. >> i think at first they were tentative, kind of afraid to do it in a way. and they never quite got the knack. >> bobby jindal jumped in, rick perry jumped in, paul rand jumped in, they all got beat. and donald trump is winning this in a very, very straightforward way. and the ways that he dent end up with this nomination are convolu convoluted, hard to explain, hard to deal with as a party. >> and not likely to happen.

>> okay cam's razor is that he wins. >> 35 minutes from now polls close in new york. we'll update the status of that stop trump movement. if all the public polling comes true, he's going to cruise to another victory in his home state tonight. democratic side of the race, very, very interesting with an expected hillary clinton victory, according to the public polling. our first characterization will come up at the top of the hour. another break in the meantime for us. we'll be right back.

we are back. 31 minutes from now the polls will close across the state of new york. which really, truth be told, is more like two completely separate states. there's upstate new york and there's down state. the five boroughs of new york city and long island to the east. and there is the brooklyn bridge with the new world trade center tower at the tip of southern manhattan. our correspondents, the very best team in the field, are ready to go tonight as this statewide primary, which as the day has approached has taken on a whole lot more significance than just a single state primary. good evening to you once again. brian williams, rachel maddow, and our huge team here to help us tonight as the results come in. >> one of the things that we do have information on so far, even though the polls won't close for

another 30 minutes, is who's turning out and who says they are most fired up about this race. and that doesn't tell you exactly who's going to win but it does tell you something about the contours of this race. for that we go to steve kornacki. >> we're seeing potentially a very significant gap between the two parties here. i'll get to that in a minute. first what we're seeing in terms of the basic composition of the electorate. a story we've been telling you every primary night this year so far. take a look at this democratic side in new york. comparing 2008. remember obama versus clinton. versus today. do you consider yourself liberal, we asked? very, somewhat, how do you characterize yourself? 58% liberal eight years ago. today, we're pushing 70%. in new york this is a democratic party that has gotten significantly more liberal over the last eight years. we have basically seen this in every contest so far. a much more liberal democratic party than we had eight years ago. basically the same thing is true in reverse on the republican side. 2008, back then 56% called

themselves very or somewhat conservative. now that number tonight, over 70%. a republican party moving to the right, a democratic party moving to the left, each moving away from the other. one of the big stories of american politics. also we can show you this, a very low number tonight. we look at the number of evangelicals. usually significant, tonight no. 23%. this is the second-lowest number we've seen in a republican primary, the lowest massachusetts with 20%. the highest, mississippi, 76%. here's the big gap that i'm telling you about. we asked democratic voters in new york -- remember, it's been a contentious democratic primary. bernie sanders was out there calling hillary clinton unqualified. has this process energized your party or divided your party? overwhelmingly democrats in new york watching this campaign, they say it has energized the party, not divided it. same question to republicans. what has this campaign done to your party? 39% say either in jized the republican party, nearly 60% say it's divided the republican party.

as we look past the primary process to the general election, those are numbers that could be very significant there. especially if that's true outside of new york as well. >> that's fascinating. i would expect that both parties would say this has been an energizing process only because new york voters never matter. they never have a primary that matters. it's been a generation since it mattered on the republican side, arguably on the democratic side, you'd think they would both say, i feel energized because it counts whether or not i vote. to see such a dramatic split like that that's just remarkable. >> and what it speaks to, we have other numbers we can show you as the night goes on. on the republican side, just the degree of bitterness between people who support donald trump and people who don't. people who fall into one or the other camp. it reflects in a lot of different numbers we're seeing tonight. >> steve, fascinating. >> psychiatrists call it nicole wallace syndrome. let's check in on a polling place, chris jansing reporting from harlem all afternoon and evening long. >> ground zero here for

democratic politics, only 6% of the registered voters are republicans. all day long this place has been busy. every single one of these voting booths throughout the night has pretty much been filled. to rachel's point, a lot of the people i talk to say, finally, new york matters in the primary. so they've been turning out. they've had to direct some traffic. they have all these various stations set up. they told me when i got here early this morning about 2,000 would be a big turnout. they've got eight different election districts here. we're approaching 2,200 already. this is also ground zero for the clintons. it was a couple of blocks from here where bill clinton, when he left office, opened an office here. started a renaissance of harlem. a lot of people talk about that. two big issues i hear about consistently. one is the economy. two is criminal justice. only found one person here who was going to vote for a republican. it was a democratic, actually, who wanted to vote for donald

trump and didn't realize that it was not an open primary. >> chris jansing in harlem, that is a big part of the vote today. closed primary, independents cannot play in this game. bernie sanders was actively campaigning against that. it's one of several shall we say impediments to voting in the new york primary. let's show you what's happening in philadelphia. ted cruz is already speaking, having already moved on to pennsylvania before the polls close here in new york. we'll fit in another break. we are 25 minutes away from polls closing here.

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washington post" who has been in the news himself these past 24 hours. robert, for a piece you wrote saying donald trump would like more entertainment value at this year's gop convention. coming off these two last gop conventions that he found rather lackluster. then again, i hear radio talk show host last night say to someone, bring your gas mask to cleveland. we're in a very unsure time where all we know is this gathering in cleveland this summer is going to be and feel highly unusual. >> trump told "the washington post" he wants to see some "showbiz." he wants to have control of the program. this is not just a theatrical statement by trump. it's a political one. because the key tension in the gop right now is who's going to actually control this convention? who's going to have the message, the themes, the platform, the speakers? trump says even if he's not at 1237 in delegates he still wants to have control. >> in terms of the structure and

what's going to happen at the convention and how much uncertainty there's going to be the rnc is having a meeting in hollywood, florida, and we're all becoming experts at one level or another about how the rnc rules work. and whether or not these things are going to be litigated on the floor of the convention or decided ahead of time. do you have any sense about how important this week's meeting is and how much the rnc is going to try to get -- basically get ahold of that convention so they can predict what will happen? >> yes, i've been on the phone with rnc members tonight, i'm flying to florida in a little bit. my sense is they're not going to change any of the rules this coming week, that they feel like they want to lay off for a little while while the primary continues. put they started to talk to me today about 35 days out from the convention this summer, you could start to contest the credentials of some of these delegates and contest some of the delegations coming in. that week before the convention where they have the rules meetings and other meetings, that's going to be where the real battles are beginning. >> robert, we also got news

today that a previous presidential nominee of the republican party, john mccain, is not going to attend the rnc. we'd previously heard that other candidates this year, including jeb bush, would not attend. is there concern that the rnc may be orphaned a little bit from the rest of the republican party? particularly senators and members of the house who feel like their own re-election prospects may be damaged by associating themselves with whatever happens in cleveland? >> mccain's a fascinating example. a past republican standard bearer. he's up for re-election this year. if you look at senator mccain and so many other senators from purple and blue states around the country, republicans up for re-election, they're manning their own barricades in their states and they see the possibility of cruz, ideological conservative trump, with all his controversy, and say, if i have any chance of winning i've got to burrow down in my own district and win re-election on my own terms. >> what an incredible state of affairs for the modern republican party.

robert costa, "washington post," thank you as always. to the democratic side, andrea mitchell is at the traveling clinton campaign headquarters in times square. andrea, as we've been saying, a double-digit plus victory for hillary clinton makes the math, in the words of so many, almost prohibitive for sanders going forward. i know you've been in touch with the sanders effort and have some intel on that front, andrea. >> bernie sanders has already spoken. he's moved out of new york. he's in erie, pennsylvania, today. then state college tonight. and he's now heading back to burlington, vermont. but he called what happened in brooklyn with purged vote errr s absurd. i'm told there are going to be complaints because brooklyn, his birthplace, is considered a strong -- a sanders stronghold. and they believe if the race is close, this could impact the results.

of course, as you point out, hillary clinton hoping that this is a double-digit lead. they want to put this away. they can't be the presumptive nominee after tonight mathematically. they think if they can pick up a net of 25 delegates tonight that they can then make it very clear to bernie sanders that the math isn't there, they're running out of territory, and it will give them a lot of the momentum going into pennsylvania, connecticut, maryland. they'll be in philadelphia tomorrow campaigning. that said, we don't know yet whether or not this is going to be a very close race because of the voting irregularities and the fact that some of those polls didn't even open until noon. >> andrea mitchell in times square tonight covering the clinton effort, that includes news from the sanders front in addition to any shenanigans that went on at polling places today, new york state makes it insanely difficult to change your party, to vote in this primary. as bernie sanders was saying today, 1.3 million independent

voters cannot express a preference. because this is a closed primary. 8:42 eastern time. coming up on a poll close of 9:00 ear time. there's times square. what tells me the subject of infrastructure may come up? enjoy your two lanes of traffic tonight, times square.

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we are back on this night of the new york primary. the empire state building in red, white, blue. thank them for tonight's lighting scheme in honor of the statewide primary. we mean this following term affectionately. we are joined by a long-time creature of new york city, mike lupica, syndicated columnist at "the daily news," contributor to cbs. you wrote a column saying the real campaign people want to see, they're not getting to see this cycle. bring our viewers in on that argument. >> well, brian, i thought for a long time that trump was really running against the president. and i know that happens historically in races like this. but the debate we're never going to get to see is trump on the stage with the president of the united states. because even though the president's been so disdainful of trump, so much of what has happened over the past several months since trump came down the escalator at trump tower that

day has played into trump's hands. and after san bernardino, i think people wanted the president of the church in charleston and they got the cool law professor instead. and trump has this way to pounce on moments like that. rachel said something the other day, a few minutes ago, that i completely agree with. people just want to vote for this guy. they're not processing all of his policy decisions. the great william goldman who wrote "princess bride" and "butch cassidy" and "all the president's men," whenever there was a hit movie, why is that movie a hit? he'd say, "because people wanted to see it." people want to see this movie. what i wonder about trump, and i was going to ask nicole. do you think he would be at this moment and about to run away with this thing if he hadn't done some of the dumb stuff he's done leading up to it? >> absolutely. and then he might anyway.

really speaks to what you just mentioned, people feel this connection. he says -- many months ago i said he's the archie bunker candidate. he says the politically incorrect things that most people only say in their living rooms and their spouses say "don't say that in front of the kids." that is the candidate he is. he's ripping down the curtains on a very opaque process. i wouldn't go so far as to say it's corrupt. but it feels rigged to people. and he's pulled down the curtains. he makes people feel like someone can get in there and change things. and they like him. >> brian, this started with him making low energy with jeb bush sound like it was some sort of felony. and now you love hearing all this hand-wringing from the rnc. he's done the same thing to them that he did to jeb bush. he waited for them on the corner before they got to school, he stole their lunch money, he beat them up, and he said, don't come by here again. >> yeah, i he is a fighter of the street variety and has turned into a coiner of phrases.

as i've been saying, the way ron popille says, "but wait, there's more." if you say it often enough, people will start using it, it will become part of the lexicon, as has the writing of mike rupica over the years. we'll take a last break before we get our very first characterization. the closing of the polls coming up in exactly ten minutes. top of the hour, 9:00 eastern time.

we are back. in this segment we'll bridge the top of the hour and have our very first characterizations the moment the polls close across new york. that is our stunning shot tonight from the park at the brooklyn base of the brooklyn bridge. chris matthews is there tonight able to take it all in. chris? >> yes, brian, thank you. we've got rick tyler here, chief spokesman for ted cruz until awhile ago. let me ask you, if donald trump wins at 9:00, if he gets the call early tonight, big win, double digits, maybe 20 points, who knows -- what is the rest of the stop trump movement look like to you right now? >> it's going to be a bad week for ted cruz this week and next week with the new england states although cruz has a chance to pick up some especially unbound delegates in pennsylvania. he seems to be strong in maryland. his goal here hopefully for him would be to key donald trump

under 50%. he's got to get above 20% and maybe pick of some delegates here. >> if that doesn't happen, if trump peaks 50%, if used to be your guy comes in under 20, kasich second, it looks like it could be a bow none intra night. >> it could be. but then cruz has got to move to indiana and indiana's going to be a strong state. it has a lot of delegates, 57, for a small state. they've done so well, gotten a lot of rewarded delegates. he'll do well there, in nebraska. there's two other states that are mail-in ballot, oregon and washington state. he'll do well in south dakota. i think he'll do surprisingly well in california. and look, i still think it's a difficult task for donald to get there with 1238 -- >> 1237. >> 1237, sorry. if he gets close there's opportunity from the time of june 7th until the convention where he can convince some delegates to come on board. look what cruz has.

he has time. there's a week now between all of these election nights and the final week of december 7th, he's got two weeks. when cruz get in the state and campaigns or works hard, he seems to be able to turn around the numbers. >> he can stop trump from 1237 you think? >> i think he will, yes. i think he'll do that. >> can we agree to disagree? >> sure. >> i think trump's going to do well -- i can't do anything until we see the big numbers tonight. we may know a lot more in the next half hour. i think it could be that trump is on his way to winning this whole thing tonight. >> we're going to get our first understanding of that in just a couple of minutes, you're right, chris. we already heard tonight from kristen welker the clinton campaign is trying to tamp down expectations a little bit saying they do expect to win but they're thinking maybe single-digit victory, not a double-digit victory. steve kornacki, talk about what would be a good night for hillary clinton. >> we're getting to the point in this democratic process, there's moral victories and there's delegate victories. the bottom line here, if you're

interested in knowing who the democratic nominee is going to be, hillary clinton comes in ahead. i'll show you what bernie sanders would need to do to catch her. a lot of numbers on your screen. these are the pledged delegates, allocated delegates, the ones at stake in primaries and caucuses. the superdelegates, the people who automatically get votes. they're not locked into these commitments. let's forget about them right now, forget about this total right now, let's just focus on the pledge delegates. here's the challenge for bernie sanders. what he needs to do starting tonight and going to the end of this process is erase the lead hillary clinton has here. to have any kind of claim on this nomination, that's the first goal sanders has. good news, these numbers a little misleading. washington, he won big, they've not allocated all their delegates. when they do the gap will be about 210. hillary clinton coming into tonight with a 210-delegate plead. pledged delegate lead. new york, 210. that's the number.

sanders has got to -- look at this. 210 is the number sanders has got to erase the gap. big opportunity here in new york. here is the problem. the way the democrats do their delegates, this is a very proportional system, very different from what i satisfied about the republicans earlier. let's say bernie sanders polls one of the biggest shockers of the political year tonight and he wins this state. if he does, probably going to be a very narrow win. like a point or something. that 247? the way the democrats split up their delegates, it would probably be like 130 for bernie sanders on a really good night. 117 for hillary clinton. in other words, that would be a gain for bernie sanders of 13. remember, 210. that's what he's got to erase. new york is the second-biggest state left. if he pulled one of the upsets of the ages tonight he would barely put a dent in that figure. obviously he would get momentum, his campaign would say momentum changes everything. with that number in mind, these are the states that would come after tonight.

he would need to win pennsylvania next week, he'd need to win new jersey, he'd need to win maryland. the polls have him down more than 20 points. demographically maryland looks like a disaster for him. he'd have to win california. he'd have to win basically everything in between. i'm not saying this is impossible for bernie sanders but when you're more than 200 pledged delegates behind at this stage of the campaign you have zero margin for error. >> that's why we often refer to it as a cold, cruel business. >> yeah, and it does make you put all the sort of sociological observation that we make of this race. when you put it through that sieve, it ends up getting much simpler. and it's almost impossible to imagine that bernie sanders will become the nominee through any straightforward process. unless something's going to happen at the convention which is going to be a big surprise. but he is fighting like he's going to get it, including in new york tonight, including him saying that he's going to win tonight. there is some drama. >> that's why even friends of

ours, prognosticators, pundits, use phrases like, the math gets much more difficult. as of tonight they're being kind where several of these campaigns are concerned. five seconds away from the top of the hour. our poll closing in new york and our first characterization of the new york primary. it is now 9:00 eastern time. and we have a projection on the democratic side, too early to call. but there is the first victory of the evening. our nbc news/msnbc election unit, not given to hyperbole, is reporting this is a significant win for donald trump at poll closing, 9:00 p.m. the projected winner of the new york primary. it is a massive prize. and yet to be determined is the final total of delegates he gets to leave his home state with to take to cleveland. as we saw briefly there on the