you live life your way. we can help you retire your way, too. financial guidance while you're mastering life. from chase. so you can. good morning, everyone. i'm joy reid reporting from msnbc's washington, d.c. headquarters. we're just two day was from the next big batch of primaries when voters in five states, pennsylvania, maryland, connecticut, rhode island and delaware head to the polls. the stakes are high as republicans and democratic front runner donald trump and hillary clinton inch closer to their party's nominations and their rivals fight to stop them just short. republicans will be vying for a

total of 172 delegates on tuesday, including the state of pennsylvania where 71 delegates are at stake. democrats are vying for 463 delegates. most are fanned out across the northeast with bernie sanders holding rallies in providence, rhode island. donald trump will make an appearance in hagerstown, maryland, later today. ted cruz will hold rallies in terre haute and evansville, indiana. and trump and clinton lead in most of these states according to recent polling including a brand new "wall street journal" poll release the just this morning showing clinton leading at 55% in pennsylvania and trump at 45%. joining me in d.c. is "washington post" columnist and author of "why the right went

wrong." maria kumar and michelle bernard. thank you all for being here. let's dig into first of all, i guess the big news from this morning, bernie sanders was on "meet the press." he made a comment that has taken over my twitter thread and a lot of people are talking about. he was asked why he's not doing better in states that have high populations of lower income voters. take a listen. >> poor people don't vote. that's just a fact. that's a sad reality of american society. that's what we have to transform. we have a one of the lowest voter turnouts. if we can increase voter turn out so low income people and young people participate d in te political process, we could have a voter turnout of 75%, this country would be radically transformed. >> the statement didn't strike me immediately as controversial, but there's been a lot of blowback about this, particularly on social media.

>> bernie is right about the general election that poor people tend to vote less than well off people, but he's not right about these primaries. that if you because of the strong support that hillary clinton has won among african-americans, she's done rather well among the poor. i looked at the exit polls in south carolina and new york. she did better among low income voters. massachusetts and wisconsin, it's mixed. so yes, for the long run, democrats really have to increase turn out among lower income people. i don't think that explained what's happening in these primaries. >> i read something interesting. as soon as i heard the comment, i thought that sounds bizarre. i looked into it and there was an interesting research study that tried to look into. this phenomenon. what they saw was compared to 2008, despite the fact that hillary clinton might be doing well in low income demographics throughout different states, it's nothing compared to the

turnout that barack obama had in 2008. the question is do the poor, do young people, do african-americans have a sense of hope. it's not that somebody wakes up one day and says i want to be a poor citizen. it's i don't have hope. nothing changes. i have no reason to go out and vote because the politicians don't care about me. i think that's the point that was lost. >> i think one of the things that bernie sanders said was true. everything that he was saying about the demographics. but also it's a little challenging if he's selling himself as the candidate of the downtrodden and the ones that's reexciting the electorate. he said i'm sort of. that's what we need to dig into a little deeper. but also we have to have a broader conversation. one of the reasons that people are not participating in record numbers is we have increasingly these new modern barriers.

we start looking at can someone really take off a day of work to spend six hours at the polls. they can't. there's a lot of barriers no one is discussing. and i also think if you are living in a lot of these neighborhoods where you do not see -- where you see government failure on their part, where you're being either racially profiled because you are of a certain color, whether your schools are not failing, whether you can't get basic government infor services. >> where you have to spend hours and hours. >> caucus states clearly where bernie has done well which is the kau cass states, that's a bigger burden. in terms of turnout, it's a mixed picture. southern states looks like turnout is well down. some of that is that barack obama mobilized african-american voters to an unprecedented degree. but in other states, the turnout

is not down. if you compare turnout, it's a little bit, but it's not hugely down. >> for democrats it's not a revolutionary turnover year. you have democrats who are holding the white house. you almost have a reelect constituency in these states. >> we keep having these conversations among the young voter, african-american voter, they are the same voter for the most part. demographical demographically, the arverage i the 27-year-old. single women in record number, they are for the most part at the heart of the millennial voter. looking at the same thing with african-american voters and start identifying their numbers, they are around 31. so you're talking about what is we are missing when it comes to mobilizing that young voter of every hue to participate. >> i think that was really important when you touched on the barriers to voting.

when we see the voting rights act a critical part being struck down in the united states and all the things it brings to mind something that "the new york times" said which is that standing in line for six or seven hours waiting to vote is a poll tax. and poor people cannot afford to pay. >> it shows how important this court nominee is. but secondly we got a warning about this in arizona. where arizona shut down most of its polling places. the mayor of phoenix says if you look at it, there were more neighborhoods, that's a warning for what could happen in november. >> let's talk about in the immediate future. we are having this dust up over what bernie sanders said. we're going into a set of primaries that are taking place where in theory he should be able to motivate voters.

look at what hillary clinton is doing versus bernie sanders right now. she's up 55% to 40% in the polls. if you look at democratic voter a across these primary states, hillary clinton polling ahead of bernie sanders in these states. why, in your view, bernie sanders has the message that in theory resinates with the kind of voter who is hurting the most in this new economy where you're having trade at the forefront that people feel is hurt iing them. why isn't bernie sanders doing better? >> any state with a large african-american vote and that's very high in maryland, fairly high in pennsylvania, hillary clinton does well. she's win ining that community with roughly 70% consistently. so that's a big part of it. i also think pennsylvania is a really big deal because after

new york, if bernie loses this big state where as you say, they have really been hammered by the industrialization, if she has even half that margin, then i think the talk to redirect his campaign is going to be less negative against her and more about his message. that's going to get louder. >> there's a lot of talk trying to figure out if they have an exit strategy. how are they going to actually put their e e-mails and their contacts to work. they have done an incredible job of bringing in folks that have not seen politics as a part of their lives. >> if you're talking about people at various income levels being motivated to vote and you're not attracting a diverse coalition, can you actually get done what bernie sanders is trying to do? >> here's the thing that's so interesting about bernie sanders. when we look at the money he's

raising, it's mind boggling. when you look at the number of people that show up at rallies to see him and hear him speak, it sort of makes one question why he's not doing better in these communities. and frankly i don't have the answer other than i would guess that we are getting to a point in the election where you keep hearing that at this point in time mathematically it's impossible for bernie sanders to get the nomination. so people who are going out to vote in primaries are thinking about pragmatics. can bernie sanders be the democratic nominee and if possible, can he beat donald trump? >> i think that's part of the problem. >> i think that is part of what's happened over the last couple weeks. the clinton campaign is in a difficult position because they need those young people in the fall so they cannot be seen as pushing bernie out of this race.

notice she only attacks him from the left on guns. she doesn't attack him from the right. >> all of this has to get put back together. these motivated but very different coalitions eventually u have to come back together. thank you so much. we have much more politics straight ahead. stay with msnbc, the place for politics. if youthen you'll know howouth, uncomfortable it can be. but did you know that the lack of saliva if yocan also lead to toothuth, udecay and bad breath?e.

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this morning on "meet the press", chuck todd took republicans through the five stages of grief in order for their instability to stop donald trump. the present state of acceptance. can the stop trump movement really succeed without a coherent strategy for who to replace trump with.

michael steele is joining me. we were sitting at that table with a leading force in the stop trump movement. she wasn't able to articulate a what else. >> i thought you actually put the best way. you can't beat something with nothing. that's the beginning of the effort. as i noted, this goes back to june, july of last year. you saw the writing on the wall with trump. if you had any idea to stop them, that was the time to do it. there were 16 other people in that race. the people in the party decided o who they liked. when you didn't like that, you have to put someone up to go against them. you can't go into these states and say take rubio over here. support kasich over there. there's no cohesion. >> former rnc chairman, michael

steele, could the party at large have done something to stop donald trump if they wanted to? >> the party could not. the party is on a very slender tight rope. they don't have the maneuverability to engage in this process because the backlash would be too intense. so reince did the right thing and has been doing the right thing. there's been some meetings, as we heard around town. but largely staying out of it. the problem is when these organizations then pick up that mantle, they are not connected to snanything. they are not connected to grass roots. so they themselves become an extension of the establishment. >> is it smarter then for the party to do what paul is doing. accept the fact that donald trump is going to be the nominee and figure out a way not to just lose with him, but to try to actually win. >> i'm not sure that's the best strategy because i don't think trump can win. nothing might be easier as a candidate against trump because

nothing has no flaws. trump can play against ted cruz, who has a lot of enemies in the party. kasich hasn't made his mark yet. the other problem the stop trumpers have is this split in the vote. if you look at that pennsylvania poll today, together kasich and cruz have a majority of the vote, but they appeal to different parts of the party. but i still think there are a lot of republican who is are never going to get past grief and anger in that process because they look at polls, they look at how weak trump could be and what a mess they would put him in, but the party is reluctant to go after him because some so much of the trump base is part of the party base. particularly the lower income working class republicans. they can't afford to alienate them and yet they know if trump is the nominee, it could be a catastrophe for the party. >> you made the point that

there's no guarantee if the cruz and kasich voters were to consolida consolidate, they would be the same voter. >> it's hysterical that the craziness that they are going through this process because the assumption is the 51% that make up kasich and cruz supporters that if one of them drops out, the 51% is theirs. among those voters, donald trump is a second choice. so if their guy drops out, guess where they are going. they are going to donald trump. so donald trump is still in the driver's seat in this process. at the end of the day, my argument has been from the beginning let the voters play it out. this is the first time in probably a generation in which the voters actually are having a say in controlling in process. we see it on the left with bernie sanders. that energy is palpable and real and the establishment types on both sides, particularly in the republican party, are just lost their mind because they don't

know what to do with that. >> but there's a difference. >> she's paying attention to her left. >> but there's an interesting point you make about the votes not automatically transferring. one of the truly interesting things about donald trump is he's getting republicans that call themselves moderate. he's crossing the spectrum. >> isn't that because what donald trump has exposed, and you write a lot about this in your book, 40 years of republican elites assuming that the primary directive of their voters was to get tax cuts for the 1%, was to get deregulation in business. >> that's absolutely right. although, trump's tax cut is just like all other thes.

so yes, this is a challenge to the core identity of the republican party has had for a long time. >> and the conservative movement. if you have somebody like ted cruz who is arguing save conservatism in terms of philosophy, voters don't care about that. >> another thing they have messed about this election, this election is not about ideology. this election has never been about ideology. that's why ted cruz lost in the south. it wasn't about ideology. this election hasn't been about money. donald trump has taken that off the table because he's self-fund ed his campaign. the man has spent $28 million in this campaign so far. this election is a different election. what has been the ongoing story and you touch on it in your book a lot is the base of the party is here and the establishment is over there. and right now the establishment cannot control the direction in which the base is taking the party, which is towards trump. >> it's an election about

anxiety. whoever answers that question. we're going to have a lot more. thank you very much. coming up, msnbc's own delegate hunter dives into contested conventions and how they could play out. stay with us. ever. the all-new audi a4, with apple carplay integration.

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now serving... a better banquet. make sure it's ano maintelligent one.. ♪ the all-new audi a4, with available virtual cockpit. ♪ tonight on msnbc, our delegate hunter jacob soeb rof explores the dirty dealing of contested conventions. in a new special called "you vote they decide." here's a look at the democratic national convention from a previous year. as the convention gets off the ground, it's clear hubert humphrey is the front runner. >> for more than 100 years,

primaries didn't matter. what mattered were the inside politics of the other state's political party. >> back in '68 the delegates arrive at the convention unbound. >> they were all free agents. in 1968 delegates did whatever they wanted to do. they were only bound to the extent that they had been chosen by a powerful person in their state. >> but that powerful person held all the cards. the old days the open convention meant where the delegates are picked by the bosses and they make all the decisions. it was anything but open. >> lyndon johnson make no mistake was in control of that convention. it shadows everywhere and hubert knew that and knew hubert knew that. >> we found a team of johnson staff there. they made it known that they were going to run things and johnson might even change his mind and run himself.

if humphrey got out of bounds, it was very, very sour. >> i don't believe this is the democratic process. >> the ak ro moin is just as bad on the convention floor where the delegates are divided and demoralized. >> it was a running match. it was a political, cultural clash between the past, the present and what the future was going to look like. >> the convention itself was the wild west. we weren't sure if there's not and shoot ups everywhere and had to be on your toes. >> jacob joins me now. this is exactly the kind of history geek worm hole that i long to live in forever. >> glad to hear it. >> thank you for doing it. it's interesting because you talk in the special about the way these unbound delegates were gamed. you see that now with the ted cruz campaign really going back

into states and trying to game the system with these delegates. in your discussions in talking with some of these delegates who will be going to the republican convention, do you get the sense that they are preparing a match nation that on that second ballot they are going to walk away from donald trump or do you get the sense they are not really that primed to be second ballot cruz people. >> the last couple days i have spent in pennsylvania where there are 54 unbound delegates on the line. they could make or break donald trump's chance of getting the nomination on the first ballot. when i talked to folks that pledged trump, he got his clock cleaned in had north dakota for the unbound delegates. the campaign has made a shift with a keener understanding of the history of these previous contested convention, particularly 1967, which we look into in the documentary so people said we are going to

pledge trump all the way through. how the trump folks are not getting these over to their side is interesting. that's a whole other conversation about a shift in strategy by the trump campaign where they didn't pay much attention to the system before now and now that they are so close and the 54 in pennsylvania may make the difference, they have locked in on these folks. >> you talk about this whole idea in the past party bosses really having a lot of influence over these delegates. they have laws against the kind of politics with delegates offering gifts and things like that, the delegates you have spoken with, do they feel more of a moral obligation the mirror the way their state vote or to the party and saving the republican party. >> there was one conversation i got to eavesdrop on in pennsylvania the other day. one of these unbound delegates was saying to me that they were going to stay uncommitted until the end and the voter who had heard them say that came up to them and said to them, shame on you. how can you hold this decision

until the very end where 20 million people have gone out and participated in this process. gone to the ballot booth, believe in the idea of one person, one vote. that's why the documentary is called "you vote they decide." because it could be decided by a tiny group of people. there are people that want to hold out to the end to get something from these campaigns, maybe just to feel like they have a lot of power. but it's going to come down to these folks. that's what we are so locked in on. >> this election season has been unsane. it's also been an incredible civics lesson. thank you so much. don't miss the documentary tonight on msnbc at 10:00 p.m. eastern. thank you. up next, one of the hottest political contests this tuesday has nothing at all to do with the presidential election. we'll examine the role of race and gender in yapd's senate contest, after the break. i'm mary ellen, and i quit smoking with chantix. i have smoked for 30 years

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november 8th could turn out to be an historic election day for the united states senate if two candidates donna edwards and cam la harris join as the only african-american women ever to be elected to the upper chamber. but although harris and edwards are poised to share the moment, they will have arrive on different paths. the political action committee on december of last year. they decided to hold their endorsement for donna edwards, a move largely seen as a snub to her campaign. politico called the nod unusual for the pac in a primary as close to the contest. the race to replace barbara mikulski has become highly charged around race and gender

as edwards has fought to stay competitive against her opponent. a fellow house democrat with deep pockets. according to politico, this week just days before the election, edwards approached pac leaders with one question about the snub. why. and join iing me now, jonathan capehart and elena snider and host mark steiner. so i want to ask that question. why hasn't donna edwards gotten the support of the pac? >> she ran against a popular member of the cbc in 2008 and beat him. so ever since then, they have had a strange relationship between the two between her and that group.

and i think that strange relationship hasn't really been repaired. >> is it that simple? she doesn't personally get along with members of the cbc. >> that's one part. the other part is you talked to anyone in her district they don't like donna edwards because her constituent services this is what congress people pride themselves on being responsive to the people who sent them to office and you'll hear many people say i make the phone call to her office and she doesn't call e me back. on top of that, when you're in the house and you're a democrat and you've got these fundraising goals that you have to meet, she hasn't met a lot of them. so for the cbc to not endorse an african-american woman in a state where the black vote is a huge portion of the democratic vote, that sends an incredible signal. it has a lot more to do than

just challenging or being unpopular with some members. there's deeper stuff going on. >> elijah couple,inummings, he' incredibly popular. for her not to have his endorsement it feels would be problematic for her. what are your listeners saying? what are people in baltimore say about this idea that only the third black woman who could be a united states senator does not seem to have african-american institutional support? >> she does have the support of african-american voters in maryland. that's clear. it's more complex than that. when you look at the cbc, the cbc in many ways is funded by a lot of corporate interests. and i think that this is day u providing on racial lines. people don't pay attention to what is being said by some other

pundits around. you see it and i think she in some ways she's an outsider. she has been an outsider. she's an outsider with the cbc. there are all these stories about not having good constituent service but she keeps getting reelected. it's a complex question. it's not as simple as her having services, but it has a lot to do with what is happening in terms of who supports them as well. >> fine, she's popular in her district with some people, but she's running statewide against a candidate who is extremely popular both within the establishment, but i think also around the state. so that's something that donna edwards has to reckon with. i think come tuesday, it will be

interesting to see how close the actual vote percentages are to that poll. >> it's interesting because if you look all the what has been able to amass, a letter that they are touting from his campaign and then they are talking about dem gratic women coming out in support of van hollen. and emily list hasn't had a lot to work with, but not usually the top priority. you do have these weird race and gender going on inside of this race. >> it's fascinating that it's broken down into a proxy war of what's happening in the democratic party. you have van holen who is close with nancy pelosi, who has been a deal maker.

then you have donna edwards talking about her outsider status, sounding like bernie sanders. that breakdown gets more complicated because african-americans have overwhelmingly supported hillary clinton, but this they are supporting donna edwards. >> that's interesting because it does feel like even in your presentation of it, kind of a sanders versus clinton sort of vibe to the race. but in that case, clinton is usually the one coming out on top with african-americans. is there an age difference between the african-american supporters of van hollen and edwards? >> i don't think so. different polls are showing different things. there's a 9-point gap, but the black vote in maryland in the primary is significant. what you're going to see is there is a fer ver inside the black community in baltimore city and prince georges county to have more black

representation. and i think it means a huge amount to most black voters in maryland to have a black women representing this state in the senate. that's a factor here. you're also seeing that a lot of progressive and liberals who are white are saying she has terrible constituent service. some people think that's a dog whistle. some people think that's real. i think van hollen is extremely popular. he's a nice man. and on the votes, they are 100% similar. there's a little difference on the vote. so i think you're seeing in many ways at this moment a real serious variable divide. some say it's fuelled by the establishment's dislike of donna edwar edwards. >> it's interesting because for women which is an organization that helps african-american women to get elected behind her. there's a lot of direct appealing to these issues of gender and race. i want to read you what she said

in buzzfeed about this very issue. she said, i'm dumbfounded by democrats who don't see the value of race and gender as part of a mix of who we are in public and private lives. when i began this race, i u decided i was going to run as who i am. i'm a black woman. there's no hiding that. at the same time, you talk to people on the cbc side of this equation. that's not what she's done in terms of her politics as a member of congress. >> one of the things about the day in age that we're in is people can look at candidates and see that, yes, she's african-american, she's a woman, she's a black woman in elective office and decide, you know what, i don't want to vote for you. i have the freedom to not vote for you. so for donna edwards to put out there that she's being who she is and because of that she's being rejected, it could have very much to do that they u don't like the way she plays the game. it could be that simple.

>> and you did the reporting on this for politico. so in the end, what does the democratic party who do here. there's an imperative to appeal to voters of color that has resonan resonance. is it in a pickle here? >> i certainly think they are in a pickle. some people like the retiring senator has decided to stay completely out of it. and some people are just trying to not pick sides at all and let the voter decide in this. but they are in certainly in a difficult situation. >> this feels like a knot for the democratic party. thank you very much. more politics ahead. stay with msnbc, the place for politics.

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almost a year to the day the city of baltimore erupts in chaos, they are choosing a mayor in one of the most important elections in baltimore history. the announcement she would not run for reelection opened the dor to a primary fight between as many as 13 democratic candidates including the black lives matter activist. the race has narrowed to a faceoff between sheila diction, who stepped down in 2010 following a conviction for embezz embezzlement, and katherine pugh, the senate majority leader. in a race where early voting numbers have already doubled the turnout from the 2014 election, these top contenders have been fighting with the gloves completely off. mark steiner is back.

let's start with the polling. katherine pugh is now au head. dixon was seen as the front runner. our latest polling shows her ahead. why has she pulled ahead in this race? >> here's what i have seen. first of all, sheila dixon, as you described who had to leave office and resigned, has an unshakable 25% of the vote. unshakable. people who love her and what she's done for the city. but there's 35% that would not vote for her under any circumstance. and katherine pugh has been able to take advantage of that and move ahead in the polls and she's also got the support of the democratic establishment, of a lot of corporate money in baltimore and national black money from around the country

because of her political position. she's run a smart campaign. a really smart campaign. she didn't have a strong base inside the black community in terms of recognition in many ways, but she's built that and taken advantage of the fact that she can't break out of the 25% mold. >> i'm wondering, though, if some of the things we have seen come up in this race, and these are not being done by any of the campaigns but by outside groups, might help sheila dixon because they do seem below the belt. there's a clean slate pac who put out an attack ad comparing katherine with dixon's control record. that ad was denounced by both of the campaigns. then you have this anti-pugh mailer from the dixon campaign that then turned around and tried to accuse katherine pugh of accepting illegal money to run for office. is the nastiness of the campaign between these top two candidates hurting either of them in any

particular way? >> i really don't think so. first of all, baltimore is a lot like chicago in a sense that when they say they have campaign buss taking people to vote and they give them food and drinks, that's happened in every election. nobody thinks twice about that. and that really breaking finance laws, they are accusing one another of doing. but i think it's a point of desperation at the end of this race is what you're seeing. there really isn't a huge amount of difference in terms of the policy and politics between sheila dixon and katherine pugh. so i think that push there's some people who have seen lids beth embry's ads that post next to each other in a very mean way, people see that and don't like that in the black community. but i think that it's not going

to be a factor. >> i think one of the things that's really interesting and there's so much fascinating about baltimore politics. the top three candidates are women, that african-american women, the outgoing mayor is a black woman. you have seen a lot less traction for male candidates who in theory one would have thought would have done well. the nick moos byes of the world. talk about the fact you have seen black women be the most powerful actors in the politics of baltimore. >> a, black women are the engine that pulls baltimore city. it's been that way for a long time. it's still that way. that's a big factor in this. the other part is that the male candidates have not been able to

gain traction. i think because he came back to baltimore has not been here for awhile. some of the black lives matter folks in this town, some of them pull away from him. and he didn't have the push he thought he was going to have when he hit the city. that's part of it. people like karl stokes who has been a progressive vote in the city and a fighter for many things can't gain traction. and i think that it has more to do with the fact that who pulls the vote in the city and also the fact that both katherine pugh and dixon have such name recognition. i think people are looking for some stability after sheila was pushed out of office. >> i'm wondering, then, with this race you have a hotly contested senate race. it also has an african-american woman.

are these local races in any way having resonance sbo the democratic presidential primary? is the energy around any of these candidates in any way helping bernie sanders or hillary clinton or are these things just sort offed a miezed in the politics of baltimore? >> more the latter. i don't know if they have that much effect. bernie is popular with young people in the city. but i think the established candidates are going to win the day. but the big thing about this election that most people don't see is there are all these 20 and 30 something candidates running for city council. there are six open seats. there are three seats contested. it will be a huge turnover. some people say it will be the establishment turning itself over. but more than that, it's the young people running that give really hope for the future here. because it's amazing to watch these articulate, bright, young

men and women running for office. two of them running for mayor, but mostly in the city council. that's a dynamic that's not being covered. but that is a factor here that bodes well for the city's future. >> and that is the way cities are changed. a lot of people don't pay attention to local elections. that's how you begin to make real change in a city. thank you so much. i appreciate you being here. >> good to talk to you. >> don't go anywhere. in our next hour, we have so much to get to. we have the veep states. who will the presidential candidates select as their running mates. and one of my favorite tv shows comes back tonight. can you guess what it is? stay with us. it's true what they say. technology moves faster than ever. the all-new audi a4, with apple carplay integration.

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you're looking at live pictures of hannover, germany, where president obama will soon be meeting with chancellor angela merkel. they are there to discuss trade issues. welcome back, i'm joy reid, here at msnbc. let's talk a little bit about some of the issues that are in the global community. a lot of protests against the idea of these trade agreements. wait a minute, we might have the president walking out. we'll wait for him to start talking, but there's a lot of protest. >> 35,000 people came out last night. 100,000 in november. there's a lot of opposition in germany in particular. a wealthy country to get tied down in a free trade agreement with the united states is now seen as a negative. a couple years ago it wasn't. there's a real turn in the tide in europe. >> i think what's fascinating here is the relationship between obama and merkel. aheadline in the