and that's "hardball" for now. "all in" with chris hayes starts right now. she's like an unbalanced person. >> trump targets clinton as the former head of the cia calls him a threat to national security. >> all of my life i've been told, you have the greatest temperament. >> then, the republican nominee names his all male economic team. >> donald trump's problems go far beyond economics. >> plus, trump on the women he would appoint to his cabinet. >> there really are so many that are really talented people, like you. i mean, you're so talented. >> and his explanation for turfing a baby from his rally. >> a beautiful baby was crying. and i mean crying like you wouldn't believe. this baby could have been pavarotti. >> when "all in" starts right now. >> i love babies.

good evening from new york, i'm chris hayes. any minute right now, donald trump will take the stage at a rally in green bay, wisconsin, where his vice presidential pick mike pence is currently speaking. trump is expected to do something second nature to many politicians, but so far has been completely anathema to the republican nominee, that is doubleback, back down. tonight trump is widely expected to endorse house speaker paul ryan in his congressional primary next tuesday just days after pointedly refusing to do so. his rejection of ryan was a surprise move that amplified republicans' growing panic over the recent conduct of its nominee, particularly its attacks on the grieving muslim american parents of a slain army captain, and reportedly made rnc reince priebus, apoplectic. trump praised ryan's opponent, paul nealon, who has been described as a mini trump.

>> i'm a businessman. i build things, create jobs, jobs that allow people to pay their mortgage, put food on their table, put their kids through college. >> nealon endorsed trump before ryan did back in early may. politico reported that several former trump staffers are working on nealon's campaign. ann coulter is scheduled to campaign with him later this week. nealon proposed to go even further than trump's plan to ban certain muslims from entering the u.s. >> the question is, why do we have muslims in the country if -- how can you possibly vet somebody who lies? >> well, so are you suggesting that we deport all of the muslims in this country? >> i'm suggesting we have a discussion about it, that's for sure. i am absolutely suggesting we

figure out how do we -- here's what we should be doing. we should be monitoring every mosque. >> trump has much more to gain by mending fences with ryan in the republican party than by continuing to try and punish ryan for insufficient loyalty. for certain, ryan is all but certain to crush nealon in the primary. and tonight trump arrives in wisconsin, the site of his most demoralizing defeat. amongst his countless blunders and plagued by a growing number of defections from his own party, worst of all, his poll numbers are plummeting. just a week ago, he was tied with hillary clinton. today after a convention clinton bounce, he's fallen behind by almost seven points in the average. things are even worse in individual battleground states

like pennsylvania and new hampshire where recent polls show clinton with a double-digit lead. all week long, ryan has claimed he's not seeking trump's endorsement. in an knew today with charlie sykes, ryan sounded off on the particular brand of politics espoused by his primary opponent and by his own party's standard bearer. >> i think they call it alt-conservativism. >> alt-right. >> yes, this is not wisconsin conservativism, wisconsin republicans. and that kind of dark, grim, indefensible thinking, comments, is going to be thoroughly rejected and repudiated on tuesday, i believe. i for the likes of me, have a hard time trying to understand the kind of thinking behind it, but unfortunately we see some of it these days. >> that kind of speaking has been on display more and more, emboldened by america's birther

in chief. in the mind of the average american, there is no doubt he is muslim. joining me now, charlie sykes, msnbc contributor. charlie, at the most basic sort of surface level, this looks like a victory for ryan, in so far as he's going to crush nealon and trump doesn't want to get embarrassed, so he's probably going to endorse him tonight. >> yeah, this doesn't do much for ryan. he was going to get 70% plus tonight. but it helps trump stop the bleeding. when he refused to endorse ryan, it was a real problem, a humiliation for ryan priebus and mike pence. they'd been putting tremendous pressure, there's been a lot of blowback in the republican base here.

again, it's kind of unusual for him to walk it back, but, again, it's not going to change the outcome. although, it's going to definitely ruin ann coulter's whole day tomorrow. >> you got her as a great example. she wrote a book that is a frankly anti-immigrant book, she says all things of offensive things. adios, america, i believe it's called. a blueprint for the nealon campaign. nealon is contemplating ethnic cleansing, the mass deportation of a religious group and he's running in a republican primary. it seems to me that pandora's box is opened and it doesn't get closed up if trump loses. >> yeah, you almost have the sense that there's gates to this toxic sewer of white supremacy that were opened up here. i would be interested to know if donald trump was asked about paul nealon's comments, would he disavow them?

that may be a reason why he is bailing on all of this. so when i talked to paul ryan today, he wanted to distinguish the alt-right rhetoric from actual conservativism. i think that's one of the things on the ballot next tuesday. >> and here's the problem, and i believe you're still a never trumper. i haven't checked back in with you. although when we were in the bar in wisconsin, you were pretty never trump. assuming that didn't change, paul ryan can do all that he wants in this primary and he'll beat this guy badly, but the guy who's convention he just chaired is not that far from him. the guy who he says he's going to vote for, the guy who the republican party is currently holding a supreme court justice's seat for is not that far from paul nealon. >> no. this is the exquisitely painful dilemma for paul ryan and i was trying to press him on how is he going to be able to walk this incredibly difficult, moral and ethical tight rope.

he said, my endorsement is not a blank check. but is there some point at which the check expires, it bounces, you cancel the check? and he did say, if you listen to the tape, yes, i'm not going to lay it out what it would be, but at least he put that marker down. particularly when you see the polls beginning to hemorrhage. you saw the fundraising letter he put out yesterday, saying we can't give president hillary clinton a blank check. you get the sense that republicans are about to press the button on the 1996 tragedy, which is to bail on the top of the ticket, put all the resources on the down ballot races. >> let me ask you this. it seems to me that the gop in its modern incarnation as a coalition of economic conservatives, foreign policy conservatives, religious conservatives, that three-legged stool of reagan, it can survive a trump loss, but can't survive

a trump win. that actually a trump win would be the death blow in a way that the loss might be able to be brushed off. >> i agree. in part, because if conservatives can't stand up to candidate trump, would they stand up to a president trump? what you see is this tendency, this cult of personality, the lack of principle on the part of a lot of conservatives, that they feel the need to defend and rationalize what he does. >> right. >> and as a result of that, as i said earlier during the primary, then you own all of this. you own the misogyny, the racism, the nativism, you own the gaffe, you own the bizarre attitudes and ideas about foreign policy. and i just sort of get the sense that a lot of these folks are putting their head down, holding their nose, they keep repeating this mantra, it's a binary choice, it's all the supreme court. but if there was a trump presidency, i think it would be the end of modern conservativism, at least the post reagan, post william f. buckley style of conservativism.

>> thank you. recent polls show voters have concerns about donald trump's ability to lead the country. respondents favor hillary clinton to be a good commander in chief. the clinton campaign has been hammering that message. releasing a new ad with republicans voicing concerns about trump's leadership. >> if he governs consistent with some of the things he's said as a candidate, i would be very frightened. >> he's been talking about the option of using our nuclear weapon against our western european allies. >> this is not somebody who should be handed the nuclear codes. >> michael morel wrote an op-ed endorsing hillary clinton. saying that we would say putin has recruited mr. trump as an agent of the russian federation. morel is now employed by a company co-founded by a long time aide to hillary clinton.

i'm joined by a democrat from california. congressman, the characterization in that morel op-ed, where he says putin very deftly complimented him, he's recruiting him, seemed a little bit out past what the facts are at this point. what did you think? >> well, thank you, chris, for your question. let me just say, having served on active duty in the u.s. military, i believe the president's most important duty is when he or she is acting as our commander in chief, protecting our nation. the notion of a cruel person like donald trump being our commander in chief so freaked him out that he wrote this op-ed. it showed how erratic donald trump is, and that donald trump has been playing footsie with russia. donald trump wants to weaken nato.

these are all things that russia wants. there's been a lot of talk about the comparative commander in chief strengths. and obviously hillary clinton, i think, her campaign can see that in 2008, sering as secretary of state. and we've just started bombing in libya. where hillary clinton urged intervention. it's now a failed state, it's failed so much that we are now bombing isis there. what does that say about her judgment on that issue? >> the middle east is a very complicated issue. keep in mind, secretary clinton was in on the decision-making process to take out osama bin laden, she's negotiated ceasefires in the middle east. she's made women's rights a human rights issue. she is the most prepared candidate to be president in the history of the united states. and people can disagree on libya and other actions that have been taken, but keep in mind, isis is a threat.

and we do need to bomb terrorists and take them out. >> right. respectfully, all that's true about her resume, but we're now talking about judgment. that's one of the things to compare here and there's one person on your screen who has the judgment that he appears to have. but with respect to libya, i mean, the fact that we are now there bombing them again does seem to indicate the initial strategy was not a success. >> well, keep in mind, libya was a nato operation. i think in hindsight, it's easy to criticize, but before that operation happened, libya was already a problem state. and gadhafi was a very evil and bad person. you can look at all different factors as to whether that should have happened, but the view is that at the time they made that call, you can't say it was an unreasonable call. >> final question here, you talk to your colleagues off the record. do you think the people in the house, your republican congressmen in the house, do they trust trump with the nukes?

>> oh, absolutely not. if you look at our commshl security leaders, this past march, over 120 republican national security leaders wrote an open letter saying they cannot support donald trump for president because they're so scared of him having access to our nuclear launch codes. if you look at this, this is why hillary clinton is endorsed by our security leaders and donald trump's been endorsed by vladimir putin. >> thank you for your time. let's listen to donald trump who is expected to endorse paul ryan is green bay, wisconsin. >> i'm only a messenger. we've done something truly historic together. standing before you as nominee for president and i am not a politician, proudly. i'm not part of the system. i ran against the system, and

i'm probably better off running against the system. i ran against the donors. i'm my own donor, essentially. i have a lot of money in this deal. this is a very expensive process, i want to tell you. i funded, as you know, i funded the primaries. and now i'm in for over $60 million. and i'm largely funding my campaign as we go forward. in addition to that -- in addition to that, we've raised tremendous amounts of money, and much of it from small donors. $61. $61, as a republican, that doesn't happen. it happens because of what you're seeing in front of you today. and if you remember just prior to june, they did a story. donald trump hasn't really done too well with fundraising. well, that's because i didn't even know if i was getting the nom -- i'm not going to raise

funds. i would have had enough if i didn't make it. i would have had bye-bye, politics. but i wanted to make sure, so i got it. and then i started raising money for the republican party, and we raised a lot of money. we started really on june 14th. flag day, my birthday. my birthday. and in june, we raised approximately -- think of this -- $51 million. can you imagine? and those people couldn't believe it. they were really surprised. big headlines, you know. they don't give me too many headlines. i can do the greatest things. i do things that i think are fantastic. i say, good, there's no way they can cover this badly. and they cover it badly. i gently tell a woman that i love her baby and let the baby cry, it's okay. as the baby that had a voice

that was superior to pavarotti continued to cry -- remember, i told her to stay, don't worry about it. after three or four minutes and i'm trying to speak, and it was in jacksonville, we had this massive, massive crowd, filled up a stadium, and the baby's screaming. so i said, ma'am, i'd like to reverse my order, perhaps you can nicely take the baby out, your baby's great. i did it so nicely. she was happy. even the baby was happy. he stopped crying. and maybe you can take the baby out, would that be possible? the whole place is cracking up. and the next day in the newspaper, it said, trump throws baby out of arena. terrible. now, they're very dishonest. that was a tough one. and i just had a reporter come up to me, backstage, a reporter come up, mr. trump, sir, but why did you throw the baby out of the arena?

i said, i was having fun. i was so nice. everybody liked me. the baby liked me. the mother liked me. we had a good time. i tried to keep the baby in, but the baby had such a powerful voice. in fact, i want to find out who that baby is. because i want to sponsor the baby. and that baby will sing some day in philharmonic hall. i'm telling you, new york city, the great philharmonic hall. so i'm not part of the system. i ran against the system. i ran against the donors. because i'm largely my own donor. i'm running against myself. that's sort of -- never thought of it that way. and against the status quo. and the status quo, we have to get rid of, because it's not working, folks. because the country's a mess. and that's why i put up a lot of money.

but while the democrats nominated the candidate of special interests and really, a candidate of total corruption, i mean, you take a look at what she's doing, the republicans made history by choosing a nominee from outside of this very, very corrupt system. it is a corrupt system. it's a corrupt system. you want something done, they can do it for you. and that's not necessarily -- and usually it isn't -- good for the country. that's why we're going to be able to deliver real change and real safety and real opportunity to all americans. we have to unite. remember that. everything i've accomplished i've done by putting together a really fantastic team, including, of course, governor mike pence of indiana, who's done an incredible job. done an incredible job.

my wonderful staff of people that really love what we're doing, and they're working so hard. my family, my friends, and it's expanding all the time. but i need a republican senate and a house to accomplish all of the changes that we have to make. we have to make them. right? i understand and embrace the wisdom of ronald reagan's big tent within the party. big, big tent. remember? ronald reagan, great man. great guy. remember he included reagan democrats and independents and republicans. a lot of people. we're going to have the same thing. there are a lot of democrats perhaps in this room. are there a lot of democrats in this room? raise your hands. eh.

i mean, i don't think we need too many, to be honest with you. so i embrace the wisdom that my 80% friend is not my 20% enemy. ronald reagan. stated by ronald reagan. pretty good. we will be the big tent party. we are going to have a lot of crossover. we're going to have a lot of bernie sanders' people coming in, because of trade. because bernie sanders knew we were being ripped off by trade. trade is a disaster with china, with japan, with mexico. with vietnam. with so many countries, with every country. every country. we don't win at any level with anything. and as a unified party, we will lead our country to unity as well.

very important. we need the unity. we have to win this election. no, we have to win it. have to win it. otherwise, our big movement was not as big as we thought. and that's not good. that's why november 8th, you've got to get everybody you know, and you know all this voter i.d., nowadays, a lot of places aren't going to have voter i.d. now what does that mean? what does that mean? you just keep walking in and voting? so you have to be very careful, very vigilant. you have to be careful. but we will have disagreements, but we will disagree as friends and never stop working together toward victory. and very importantly, toward real change.

so, in our shared mission to make america great again, i support and endorse our speaker of the house paul ryan. paul ryan, good. good man. he's a good man and he's a good guy. and we may disagree on a couple of things, but mostly we agree, and we're going to get it done, and we're going to do a lot of wonderful things. he's a good man. and while i'm at it, i hold in the highest esteem senator john mccain for his service to our country, in uniform and in

public office, and i fully support and endorse his re-election. very important. we'll work together. i also fully support and endorse senator kelly ayotte of new hampshire. a state i truly love. primarily because that was my first victory, but i love new hampshire. no, i love new hampshire. one of the most beautiful places. she's a rising star and will continue to represent the great people of new hampshire so very well for a long, long time. senator kelly ayotte. working hand in hand, we will grow our majority in the house and in the senate.

we need that. we gotta get things done. arm in arm, we will rescue the nation from the obama/clinton disaster, which is exactly what it is. that has bled our country dry and spread terrorism unabated across the world. that's what's happening. you saw just now, maps came out yesterday. they said, isis is far bigger. it's all over the place. it's all over the place. we're gonna get rid of it, folks. our military is depleted. we're going to build up our military. we're going to get others with us. believe me, we're gonna get plenty of others with us. and speaking of others, wouldn't it actually be wonderful if we could get along with russia?

wouldn't that be nice? they talk so big and so brave and so tough. they're the tough ones, you know, hillary's real tough. give me a break. wouldn't that be great, we get along with russia, we go together with others and we knock the hell out of isis. wouldn't that be great? wouldn't that be great? together, we will lead our country back to prosperity, security, and peace. okay? when you look at the world and what's happened, so we have the queen of corruption. she's the queen of corruption. she's a disaster. i said before, if crooked hillary clinton becomes president, terrorism will destroy the inner workings of our country.

believe me. they are loving it. she wants to have 550% more people coming in from syria and that region. >> all right, donald trump making a bit of news there in green bay, wisconsin, reading off clearly a prepared text, talking about a big tent, saying he endorses paul ryan, the speaker of the house, john mccain, running for senate, of course in arizona, and kelly ayotte in new hampshire. all that is news, because he had withheld his endorsements of all those people, clearly caving there in a speech that sounded a little bit like a concession speech. joining me now, sabrina siddiqui. what did you make of that? >> well, look, donald trump was given a clear directive by officials at the rnc, that he cannot afford to continue picking fights with members of his own party. he was supposed to focus on

hillary clinton and instead spent several days since the conclusion of both conventions, continuing to go after republicans, declining to endorse paul ryan, criticizing heavily john mccain and kelly ayotte, all because they opposed his feud with the khans, a gold-star family. it came off as tepid. he was holding the paper there. that's what he needs to do, i think, to curry favor among republicans and among donors who were really, i think, having a real genuine freak-out over whether or not this candidate can be tamed with precious time remaining, and a number of polls showing him tanking when he's head to head with hillary clinton. >> it's such a groundhog day situation. we've been here so many times. he goes off script, then does what his handlers tell him to do for three days.

and he's not a good candidate when he's doing that. there's something wooden, hostagey about him when he's doing that. and also this lowest common denominator conservativism that has not been particularly electorally effective. >> right, first and foremost, this is something that very well could be temporary. they can only convince him to run a more coherent general election campaign for a matter of days. we never know when it might be that he'll go off script again. more importantly, he loses some of his authenticity. some much of his brand is rooted in being the outsider and challenging the political establishment, so watching him read off paper, backing people who he's had sharp disagreements with, i think that's not what his base is looking for. but at the same time, he has to

bring the party together and pivot toward the general election, because he's losing moderate republicans and republican-minded independents who hillary clinton is making active overtures toward, trying to appeal to them. so i think part of this is to say, listen, you have an opportunity to continue to go after working class voters, to hammer hillary clinton on the e-mail server, to focus on her prior support for the tpp, and to point out that she reversed her position because it was politically advantageous. that's the message they want him to drive home. to the point that you had prominent republicans declining to endorse him altogether. you had some house republicans who came out and said, we don't think we can support donald trump based on the behavior he's shown since the convention. so i think this is really another -- i don't want to call it the nail in the coffin kind of moment, but this is one of the last stands we're seeing from him yet again, under a lot of pressure. >> sabrina, thank you.

still to come, can donald trump name a single woman he would want to add to his cabinet. that excruciating moment right after this break. waiter: here's your check. oh! you--you got it. you know, since i got rid of my car, i really enjoy walking. ok. got it? no, i'm good. announcer: getting pulled over for buzzed driving could cost you around $10,000 in fines, legal fees, and increased insurance rates. oh, you're home early. you live with your mom?

announcer: that'll set your game back a few years. buzzed, busted, and broke because buzzed driving is drunk driving. >> so we took a concerted effort to go out and find women who had backgrounds that could be qualified to become members of our cabinet. i went to a number of women'ses groups and said, can you help us find folks and they brought us binders of women. >> mitt romney was ridiculed when he tried to explain what a good job he did as governor of massachusetts finding women to hire for positions in state government. in retrospect maybe the ridicule wasn't proportionate to the

offense. especially compared to this. >> okay, so i want to know, just as a female, i want to know what, or who you would actually put into office as one of your first female in your cabinet. >> well, we have so many different ones to choose. i can tell you, everybody would say, put ivanka in. you know that, she's very popular, and she's done very well and you know here very well. but there really are so many that are talented people, like you. i mean, you're so talented. and i don't know if your viewers know this -- >> is this breaking news? am i going to be in the cabinet? is that a yes? >> sounds good to me. >> ooh, we're looking good. awesome! >> after that, hillary clinton tweeted we know a guy with a binder, donald trump. he might not take your calls, though. donald trump may not have binders full of women, but today

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four years ago, the jobs report released once month in august, september, october, felt like it might decide who won the election. today the jobs report for july was released and the news was good. economy added 255,000 jobs in july, far exceeding expectations. following a strong report from june. numbers like that belie donald trump's core message that the

country is in terrible shape. ahead of that, his campaign just released its list of economic advisers. 14 of them, all men, including six steves. we have one of them here tonight. a trump campaign economic adviser. thank you for joining us. let's start with this. how many times have you met to talk economic policy with donald trump? >> we have been in regular conversations with me and his campaign and of course mr. trump and i have met several times. >> what are the economic policies you think are best in terms of the vision he's laying out for the country? >> well, i think, look, mr. trump's going to lay out that in great detail on monday, i certainly don't want to take away from that. i can tell you one thing, i'm not a wall street guy. i'm a main street guy. i've already been a work for 12 hours today before i was invited to come and speak on your show. but i can tell you what i can advise on. because i'm not the architect.

i'm just an adviser. i can tell you about the struggles that americans are having with home ownership, about the struggles veterans are having, trying to wade through the system of challenges they have, during and after their active duty service. i can tell you about the challenges they have in regards to home ownership as well. and the entire issue of creating more home ownership in america. that's my expertise and i plan on spending a lot of time advising mr. trump. >> how to you fix home ownership right now? >> that's a pretty broad question. the banking industry as a whole really deserved a smack in the head and they got that in 2008 and 2009. but i think that the pendulum really swung too far. and my goal is to try to bring that back to the middle so that american purchasers of homes or those who want to refinance aren't showing up with a telephone book of paperwork, without understanding what the process is, why is it so complicated, and why does it take so long. i think the process can be

simplified, be more easily understood, and i think if we work closely with the regulatory agencies to help that happen, we can loosen up some of this gridlock and create more home ownership in america. >> the rates have come back pretty good. although part of the problem in 2007, there were a lot of people who owned homes who probably shouldn't have. this question of the pendulum, i hear a lot about deregulations and how the cfpb and a menace and how bad dodd/frank is, creating all this red tape. but we've seen what happens in the absence of a lot of those checks and balances. >> right. you make a great point. at the end of the day, home ownership, just like borrowing money, isn't really a right. it's a privilege. we've spent years dedicated to educating first time home buyers and educating veterans about the financial process and the responsibility of home ownership. i don't think it's so much about deregulations, just tweaking them so they're more useable to

get the results all americans want. >> one last question. the mortgage deduction, should we get rid of that? why should the government be subsidiing that? >> that's a terrific question. i believe firmly that home ownership in general makes america a better place. when someone owns a home, if there's a piece of trash on the street, you see them pick it up. if you see something suspicious happening, they'll call the police. if you see a neighbor in trouble, they're more likely to walk next door to help. >> i've heard this before. there's very little empirical evidence to suggest that's the case. although i understand why people think that. i think renters deserve a break too. thank you very much for joining us tonight. >> thanks for having me. coming up, is donald trump putting notoriously red states on the path to turning blue? what some astonishing polling suggests ahead. but first, we here at "all in" have an important favor to ask you in just 60 seconds. take a look at these

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okay, so we've been keeping track of all of donald trump's missteps that would be normally disqualifying for any other presidential candidate. but trump's last ten is turning out to be a bigger task than we thought. just this week alone, we had to update it twice. so we decided to compile every update and put them together on a handy website. here it is, trump's last 10.com, every topic we've added complete with links so you can read on each story. our list only goes as far back as when we decided to start this segment on the show. we're asking for your help. we want you to go back and populate this entire list starting from the fateful day trump descended the escalators and went on to say that mexico is sending rapists, which is the first thing that would have disqualified anyone else. check it out and if you see something missing, tweet it at us.

we only want stories that would otherwise disqualify any other politician if they had done the same thing. and here's the bar. kicking out a crying baby from a rally doesn't make the cut. or maybe it does. we have to think about that one. e made me feel like i couldn't be the father that i wanted to be. now i use depend. i can move the way i really want. unlike the bargain brand, new depend fit-flex underwear is now more flexible to move with you. reconnect with the life you've been missing. get a free sample at depend.com. reconnect with the life you've been missing. [tires screech] [car horn beeps] [texting keystrokes]

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>> it was like quite hard just to think that you are a swimmer and in the end you're gonna end up dying in the water. when you are an athlete, you are not think, if you are syrian, you will just think about your race. and you have your lane, your swimming cap, and that's it. >> all this week, we've been bringing you stories from a unique group of athletes competing in the olympics games, they're refugees from south

sudan, ethiopia and the democrat ic republic of congo. the number of people forceablely displaced from their homes raise to more than 65.3 million in 2015. which means 1 in every 113 people globally is now either an asylum seeker, internally displaced or a refugee. if they were a country, they'd be the 21st largest in the world. deputy director of unicef working on refugee issues is joining me now. seems we're in the midst of a global crisis, largely driven by the uptick in the middle east. >> yes, most of the refugees come from syria, somalia and afghanistan. i've just come back from the mediterranean, and they just picked up a thousand people out of the ocean. these are people that are fleeing violence all across

north africa, including syrians. the girl in that film, got in a boat from turkey to go to lesbos, now she's competing in the olympics. >> the story of this flow of refugees through sometimes from afghanistan, through turkey, to les bos, up over land, but increasingly oversea. it's unbelievably harrowing and exceptionally dangerous. >> very, very dangerous. the people on the italian navy ship that i was on in the mediterranean. they picked up a thousand people a day and hundreds every day. they've been on months and months of a journey. they've been raped. i'd met a young woman who was kept in an underground cell for eight months and raped every day and then she's trafficked into prostitution in europe. they indiana our help, these

refugees. they're fleeing violence and conflict. we're hoping to bring attention to the plight of refugees. >> how do you train under these conditions? >> you take her story, she was a swimmer in syria since 14. when she fled, it interrupted her training for two years. but she got back on her feet in germany and was helped by local people and trained and now she's at the olympics. so are some of the swimmers and judo and athletes from the democratic republic of congo, south sudan. but there's a refugee camp in africa tonight watching the opening ceremony that five of them are from, and that is heroic. >> thank you for your time tonight. appreciate it. up next, how bad was this week for donald trump? the latest polling shows hillary clinton ahead. ♪

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let's do more. add one a day men's gummies. complete with key nutrients plus b vitamins to help convert food into fuel. one a day. >> if you needed additional proof that things are not looking good at the moment for donald trump, look no further than the latest polling from georgia. yes, georgia. there a poll released today, hillary clinton is leading trump by 4% in a head-to-head match-up. while that's within the margin of error, it's the latest example of polls tightening up in the reliably red state. one poll before the fall-out over the khan family, showed them tied. this comes from a state that mitt romney won by eight points

in 2012, that last voted for a democratic nominee when bill clinton ran in 1992. one of our next guests contemplates this, it's almost time to contemplate hillary clinton winning texas. south carolina and even mississippi. joining me now, the author of that article, which i'm not quite sold on, josh barrow, and tara dowdell. okay, make your case. >> first of all, this is premised on hillary clinton winning by a lot more than barack obama won by four years ago. barack obama won by four points. if he were to win by say, 12 or 13 points, you'd see on average, that means she's doing eight points better than obama did four years earlier, and that's going to vary across states. trump's doing pretty well with

white voters who didn't go to college, so states like pennsylvania. he's having pickups there, it's being offset with terrible performance with non-white voters and very bad performance with white voters who went to college. so it's why colorado has dropped off the map. >> it looks to be at this moment, not contested. the clintons have pulled their spending from it. >> that's because it's a diverse state where they went to college. so it looks terrible for donald trump. you look at states in the south. texas, there's usually a chunk of hispanic voters who vote republican. trump seems to be doing even worse with hispanics for obvious reasons. and then you don't have a lot of non-college white voters available for trump to pick up, because republicans already get an enormous overwhelming percentage of white voters. >> he can't make up more of it. >> right, right. so if trump has a big problem with college educated white

women, i'm calling the key demographic, rich suburban white ladies. if you have a woman driving a bmwx 5 around sandy springs or plano, they're romney voters and a lot of them are turned off by various things with donald trump. >> back in 2008, i did a piece for the nation magazine where i spent time in georgia. original when the obama campaign announced 15 or 17 states they were contesting, they had an operation in georgia. i was there that summer. they were registering voters. and georgia is one of those, if we could only get the numbers like the way -- and it's proven to be fool's gold. do you think we'll see, even if they don't win an actual gain in performance this year? >> i think there will absolutely be a gain in performance in georgia, because the demographics do continue to shift. and when you look at how hillary clinton is doing among college educated white women, she's doing well. the gender gap for democrats has been driven by color, black

women, asian women, latino women, with democrats actual losing white women. now she has significant gains they think she has even more room for growth if she continues to stay the course and trump continues to be trump. >> that's the key to understand that. non-whiteit voters and the demographic composition of states that are changing over time. so when you look at arizona and georgia, they are getting less white over time. so they're trending and moving into that direction. and then white college educated women. >> exactly. and to be clear, i'm not saying that georgia's going to be the tipping point state. i don't think if makes sense for democrats to spend money in texa and i don't think this means they can be in good position to win four years from now. trump is an unusual candidate with particular weakness and that's giving an opening in a lot of states that you wouldn't normally expect. >> we saw politico reporting

today about where the trump team is making inquiries about ad spending. and they're not making ad spending inquiries in places like connecticut and new york, which they said -- or california, which they said they were going to win. but they are in indiana, arizona, and missouri. missouri is another one that has been razor close a few times, but has been a tough pickup for democrats. >> but i sort of question, what's the point of spending money in missouri? >> right. when you walk through the paths, it really does seem to me that pennsylvania is basically make or break. >> right. >> because pennsylvania is a state that plausibly -- the question is, what can you flip? what can you get that romney didn't get? >> i don't think he flips pennsylvania. >> i don't think he does either, about you my point is, it's a plausible target for a flip in a way that a state like colorado is certainly not, or virginia. >> but pennsylvania is a classic case study of trump's entrenched problems.

pennsylvania, she's up plus 19 amongst college educated white women voters. >> he's up 40 in buck's county. >> and if you look at president obama, one thing that never gets talked about, i talk about it sometimes, asian voters in pennsylvania actually voted at a higher percentage for president obama than did black voters. so she has -- and the asian population is getting even bigger. >> i'm glad you pointed that out. because that's the fastest growing demographic in america. it was won by republicans for a long period of time and romney got his clock cleaned among asian voters. and that's a part of this wedge that right now is small, but growing bigger over time that is yet another demographic hurdle for republicans, who have instead embraced the candidate that i embraced. thank you very much. steve kornacki is in for rachel. good evening. good evening to you. thank you for staying with us

the next hour. we're watching donald trump speaking live in green bay, wisconsin. and the big questions coming in before donald trump took the stage tonight is, was trump actually going to go forward with endorsing paul ryan, the speaker of the house, in his republican primary in the house next tuesday. earlier this week, trump was not ready to do that. just moments ago, though, he was. >> we will have disagreements. but we will disagree as friends and never stop working together toward victory. and very importantly, toward real change. so, in our shared mission, to make aca