alter, led a light that showed defeat at the polls can do nothing to diminish honor. by the man who defeated him. that's "hardball" for now. thanks for being with us. "all in" with chris hayes starts right now. tonight on "all in". >> i'm going to washington to be your voice in the ninth congressional district. >> not so fast. renewed calls for a do over in north carolina. >> a new election is not only appropriate, it is necessary. >> amid mounting evidence of egregious electoral fraud on behalf of the republican candidate. i'll ask the head of the state gop to explain. >> good republican act vis don't engage in this behavior. >> it's not just north carolina. >> this is bigger than that one seat. >> what the the republican power grab in wisconsin and michigan means for democracy in america. then -- >> what's come out of manafort? no collusion.

what's come out of michael cohen? no collusion. >> the special counsel prepares to reveal just some of what they have on manafort and cohen. and mr. tariff man. >> we have a trade deficit with everybody. >> gets hoisted on his own economic pa toward. >> it's the economy, stupid, did you ever hear that one? it's the economy. >> when "all if" starts right now. good evening from new york, i'm chris hayes. in the wake of democrats' historic wins in this year's midterm elections, we are witnessing tonight a full on assault of democracy by defeated republicans across the country. there's an old joke about the definition of chutzpah being a man who -- asks the court for mercy because he's an orphan, something similar is going on. for years they've used the nonexistent threat of voter fraud as a pretense to make it harder for people to vote.

even though study after study after study shows that actual in person voter fraud is stew pentously vanishingly rare. that has not stopped republicans from baselessly accusing democrats from trying to steel elections, from donald trump claiming, no evidence, making it up, that he didn't lose the popular vote. to florida senator marco rubio tossing out a bible verse suggesting democrats are making up votes. to house speaker paul ryan, implying again with no evidence, that the california elections are somehow not legitimate. >> california just defies logic to me. we had a lot of wins that night. we were only down 26 seats the night of the election and three weeks later we lost basically every contested california race. this election system they have, i can't begin to understand it, what ballot harvesting is. >> meanwhile in north carolina it appears the republican candidate for congress in the ninth district hired someone who

committed systematic electoral fraud and even to that republican mark harris seemed to win by 905 votes the state elections board has refused to certify that he has results and there are no criminal investigations and criminal subpoenas under way. tonight some news, the democrat in that north carolina race dan mccreedy is refusing to give up. >> over the last week we have seen the criminal activity come to light and we have seen that my opponent mark harris has bankrolled this criminal activity. and so as of today i am withdrawing my concession to mark harris and furthermore i call on mark harris to tell the american people exactly what he knew and when he knew it. >> and yet as far as i can tell, not a peep from paul ryan or marco rubio or donald trump or any of the other many prominent republicans who peddled baseless conspiracy theories about democrats steeling elections and voter fraud. what's worse, people like paul ryan go out of their way to so

doubt with not a shred of evidence about the legitimate california elections. the thing that ryan hinted at did appear to have actually happened in north carolina, conducted on behalf of the candidate of his own party. and to top it all off, against the backdrop of a republican campaign apparently caught red handed engaging electoral fraud, the state gop in north carolina is rushing to pass a new voter id law in the lame duck session before they lose their super majority. even though the fraud that did happen right under the noses has literally nothing to do with the fictitious, in person version republicans use as a pretext. the whole thing is a shameless spectacle of bad faith on some of the most basic tenets of democracy. restrict voting rights, make it harder to access polls. if all else fails, refuse to hand over power as they leave office like they're doing in michigan and wisconsin. here with me is dallas

woodhouse, the executive director of the north carolina republican party. dallas, you saw the call of a full accounting from mark harris about what he did or did not know. don't you think everyone in north carolina is owed that? >> i think everybody in north carolina needs to know everything. and i have to tell you, mr. hayes, i mean, we are as horrified by the news reports as we've seen as anybody else. they are revolting. they are not what our activists, our good people that work in campaigns, you know the volunteers, this is not what they're about. they try to elect republicans because they think republicans have better policy ideas. the people that have engaged in this behavior down in the southern part of the state they are political mercenaries. they are political hit men. they don't care who wins, who loses. they don't care about budget policy. they just care about getting paid. >> that appears to be the case. if that is the case i do want to

cite something you said in the days after the election where you said in a phone call we are trying to keep democrats from stealing the congressional race from mark harris. that's obviously an incredibly loaded charge that you made. do you want to apologize for that or take that back? >> well, no, because i made that call to donors of the north carolina republican party which you're not one of, i feel sure. if you'd like to be we're at 1506 hillsboro street in north carolina. >> you're wrong. your position was this is a sort of made up scandal and the democrats are out to try to steal this out from under our noses. we won 905 votes, they're refusing to concede. that proved to be wrong. you got out over your skis, there was actual, apparent criminal activity. >> okay. yes. what i would say is, is there are a lot of different things that are going on here, the ground is shifting under our feet. i don't think you can excuse the democrats on the state board of

elections that all of a sudden drop this on our lap after no election protest was filed, after mr. mccready conceded the election after no recount was called for and after all of the local boards of election certified the race. we have never seen that happen. >> wait a second. >> sir, if i can just finish this one point. >> i will let you. >> and at the same time the state is engaged in a very difficult negotiation and fight over the control of the board of elections. >> that i know. >> and so the board of elections, it's walking out the door simply comes out and says they're not going to certify and at that time really don't say why. >> right. okay. but -- >> of course we're suspicious of that. >> let's put that to the side. >> no, well, but you're asking me about what i said and you have to put it in context. >> let me give you more context. as we look at this it seems like there were some real red flags and it seems to me like the north carolina republican party failed its own republican candidate, robert pittinger, the

incumbent congressional republican, these are the bladen county mail-in absentee ballots for that primary race this year, mark harris, 437, having hired the man in question, to do the scheme scheme over robert pittinger. those numbers make no sense and there's reporting today that robert pittinger's people talked to you personally complaining about shenanigans and nothing was done. is that true? >> i'm trying -- i've been trying to recall that. it might have been. if i can offer some context. you know, the republican party rules prevent us from being involved in a primary. we often get complaints about people who don't like what happened in their primary races and perhaps we should have paid more attention. i'll plead guilty to that. but here's what i would say. the only thing we could have done is call state and federal investigators and the board of elections, which already knew and have been a part of this for a -- you know, have been

investigating this for a decade and haven't got their hands around it. that's all we could have done. and quite frankly i looked at the overall vote numbers in bladen county and i saw that mr. harris won. i didn't look at the absentee numbers. we don't usually question the -- >> i get it. i know. and believe me, if i was sitting in your position, that stinks. something happened under your nose. but you did fail mr. pittinger, didn't you? he was incumbent member of congress. he's a republican. he lost to this challenger and it appears that he lost partly because of a vote padding from an illegal vote scheme. >> the fact that mr. pittinger is an incumbent member of congress, to republican party rules he is a candidate like any other. if we failed mr. pittinger, his advisers failed him because he did not file an election protest. i mean, what were we to have done when the own candidate doesn't file the protest? i mean, there is a process for

these things. >> i hear that. that's fair enough. >> and look, look, we are as horrified by that as anybody. but i do think it's important that the people that committed the acts are the ones that need the serve the second term of the pence administration in jail. they need to be punished. i am appreciative of the media and you for putting sunlight to this. it is clear, it is clear, mr. hayes, that there has been a systematic failure in the state of north carolina, among republican governors, democrat governors and board of elections going on back a decade to stop this. >> wait. let me stop you there. because i want to sort of maybe argue on the other side for a moment. it does seem there are some persistent irregularities in bladen and robison and we'll see more things come to light. but the other thing is we now have caught this individual, it appears. again, there's criminal subpoenas. i don't want to get ahead of the facts. but my question to you is what happens now? i mean, it seems to me, mr.

harris, it's reported has introduced mccray dallas, the man in question, to another republican running for office and said that he had a system. he said he was known for getting out absentee votes. now, i don't know if he knew he was doing bad stuff or not, but it seems like there is some real questions that mr. harris has to answer about that. >> and i think that's fair. i would say that chairman hayes, i and all the party leadership know mr. harris. we know him to be an honorable, good man. it is my belief, you know, not in a court of law, i can't prove it, but it is our belief that people associated with the harris campaign, consultants or whatever would have had to mislead mr. harris because he never would have been a part of it. it was not that important enough for him to him to win. his integrity, bringing people to christ is more important to him personally. i believe that. as far as what happens now we've got to hear from the state board

of election nonpartisan investigators sooner rather than later. you know, they're the -- >> shouldn't they -- you were saying that they should certify the election just a few days ago and move forward. they should not do that, right? there should be -- they should wait until they get the facts in and probably call a new election, don't you think? >> i would say yes to the first part of that. absolutely, we believe the investigation should continue. now, remember that the criminal investigations both on the state and federal level continue no matter what happens with the certification of mr. harris's race. it is our belief that the question of certification is a numeric one. if the board of elections investigators come out and they say that we have substantial reason to believe the outcome of this race could have been altered then we absolutely should have a new election. >> wait a second, you think -- 905 vote margin, you think if they found that they'd stolen

904 votes that he should still be certified? >> well, mr. hayes, no, sir because if they found that many, you know, you would have a substantial likelihood there were more. >> okay. >> i mean, i think -- >> but i just want to make sure i'm understanding this. you think it's a numerical question. >> if you let me ever finish i would explain it to you. >> okay, go ahead. >> okay. look, if it rises to a level that it puts the outcome in question then we should have a new election. if they can assert and prove that whatever bad behavior that is going to be punished criminally could absolutely not have changed the outcome then mr. harris should be certified. if it's in the middle which is far more likely it seems we should delay the question of certification until the board of elections can answer that question for the people. you know, look, there's so many innocent victims here. the innocent victims are the voters that cast illegal votes,

the people not represented in congress. i know you're concerned about that. it seems like u.s. house democratic leadership has indicated they're not going to seat mr. harris so they're unlikely to be unrepresented at the beginning of the term anyway. let the facts emerge, and we will abide by the facts. >> final question for you, it has to do with the fact that the republican majority in the state legislature is right now moving for another version of the voter id bill, that the original was struck down by federal courts because it targeted african-americans with, i quote the court decision, almost surgical precision. a study from the state board of elections found that if that law had been in place it would have maybe avoided one out of 4.8 million votes cast being fraudulent. do you see the irony of all the talk about in person voter id fraud, voter fraud which is what voter id is designed to combat, in person fraud when this has been happening on the other side and while this is happening legislators going back at voter

id in the capital? >> mr. hayes, is it your suggestion that they should not pass voter id? >> yes, it's my suggestion. >> the problem with that is the state citizens have passed a constitutional amendment that now requires the legislature to do it. they have no choice. >> well, good luck on them for finding a good version of this. i hope they will turn their attention to what's happening in bladen and robison as well. >> they have expanded that vote to many more ids and they've tried to make sure that everybody has the ability to vote. that's all they want. we want people to be able to cast legal votes and run out corruption any way we can and the north carolina republican party will do everything, working with people like you and everything we can to do that. >> i wish you luck in that endeavor. i do want to thank you for coming on tonight. you guys are in a tough spot right now. >> it's as bad as it ever has been. >> thank you, mr. woodhouse. i want to bring in vanita

gupta, now the present ceo leadership of the conference on human and civil rights. and ari berman. give us the ballot. are you in north carolina now? >> no, i'm in philadelphia right now, slightly different place. >> what is the north carolina legislator up to? give us the history of the voter id moves they've made down there? >> the history is that in 2013 north carolina passed a sweeping rewrite of its election laws that required voter id, that cut early voting, that eliminated same day voter registration, did it a month after the supreme court gutted the voting rights act, the fourth circuit court of appeals cut it down in 2016, targeted black voters with almost surgical precision. then what happened is the north carolina passed a new law putting this up for a vote in november as a constitutional amendment. it was passed by the voters with almost no details so the legislature has to write the bill. they have rushed into a lame

duck session before they lose their super majority so the democratic governor cannot veto it and basically they are trying to pass a new version of the same law that was struck down in 2016. chris, as you mentioned it's really amazing they are now using the election fraud that their party committed in north carolina as a reason to pass a new voter id bill that targets a kind of fraud that is completely not existent while exempting absentee ballots where the real fraud occurred in north carolina. >> the talking points that came out of the north carolina gop, of which dallas woodhouse is the executive director, vanita is like we're happy to see -- using fraud committed by republicans as an example of why they should further the republican agenda. >> look, i mean, it is despicable. this kind of criminal activity is stuff that the country was all too used to in the 1960s. this was systematic. taking away a ballot seeking to

undermine african-american voters yet again. the history is not so far back. and north carolina has had a real problem, north carolina legislature has already said as recently as a few years ago passed a law that took the justice department, when i was there we sued the state of north carolina for intentional discrimination against african-american voters and we were proved right by federal courts. this kind of thing, it's exactly why we need a restoration of the voting rights act, almost certainly there is going to be a criminal investigation by the justice department. and we won't hear about it because that's what the justice department does. until there's an indictment. but this is -- we should all be outraged about this. and this notion that the north carolina legislature now is coming together to double down on this voter id law that was, you know, in its origins found to have been targeting african-american voters with almost surgical precision by a federal court, you know, i just -- there are no words. and, you know, we saw rampant

voter suppression in georgia. we are now seeing democracy being undone by the wisconsin legislature's efforts in michigan basically to -- because outgoing lawmakers were unhappy and dissatisfied with the outcome of those elections seeking to undermine the will of the voters that the stuff in north carolina is -- people don't think that it actually happens in 2018. but we are seeing it happen right now. and i thought your interview with dallas woodhouse was actually quite extraordinary. in a lot of ways. you did a really good job of pinning down the great irony. but also, let's remember you said this, they had notice that there was -- that there was something wrong that happened in the republican primary. they chose to ignore it and focus on the well funded democratic opponent and now we are today. again, for me this begs the whole need for the restoration of the voting rights act, for democracy reform to be a major priority now. >> it's a great point about the what has been removed in terms

of places like bladen county might be a place that has preclearance. it seems like the place that should have it. extra scrutiny. there were pockets, large pockets, huge pockets where there was some stuff going on that was really not kosher and the federal government came in to specifically look at it. >> that's absolutely right, chris. 40 counties in north carolina were subject to the pre-clearance provision of the voting rights act. but essentially the state had to approve voting changes for any new law they had to pass. same with georgia and alabama. remember, chris, north carolina is basically where the republican party perfected its frankenstein monster, where all the craziest policies originate from. so the lame duck -- they originated in 2016. that's when the republican legislature stripped the democratic governor of power in

2016, tried to take away his ability to appoint majorities on the state board of elections, the very state board of election that is now investigating the fraud in bladen county is unconstitutional because of how the republican legislature took away authority from the democratic governor. so the power grabs we're seeing in wisconsin, in michigan, in ohio, and now, again, in north carolina, these were exported by the republican party. so the fact that this fraud occurred and now the republican party in north carolina is using it as an excuse to pass laws making it harder to vote, that's a preview of what we're going to see in 2019 and 2020 from republicans. >> vanita gupta, appreciate it. coming up, a rare glimpse into robert mueller's investigation as two key documents release tomorrow, what we could learn about michael cohen and paul manafort in two minutes.

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days to people familiar with the matter telling nbc news this comes in the wake of michael flynn's sentencing memo which showed a man fully cooperating even if what he was cooperating about was redacted and it's on the eve of even more big court filings from special counsel robert mueller. sentencing memos on president trump's former lawyer michael cohen who appears to be fully cooperating with both the mueller probe and the separate criminal inquiry in new york, a federal judge has set a deadline of 5:00 p.m. tomorrow for both the special counsel to submit for the cohen sentencing. how trump's former campaign manager paul manafort violated his plea deal, which the special counsel's office referred to as manafort's "crimes and lies." joining me to talk about what we can expect, legal analyst jill wine-banks, and msnbc legal analyst paul butler, a former federal prosecutor who worked in the public integrity unit of the department of justice.

jill, start on this breaking news, that they have resumed conversations after those written responses. there was the seven or eight months of kicking the can down the road, talking, we're not going to talk, you'll get written responses. what do you make of that bit of news, jill? >> i think everybody was expecting that there would have to be some follow-up questions because when you do written answers they can be evasively vague. they can be anything that the lawyers want to draft. and they will certainly raise more questions. so i'm sure that part of the discussion will be about follow-ups in the subject matter of the original interrogatories. but remember, the original interrogatories, his lawyers also said we will not talk about anything during the transition or the white house. we won't talk about obstruct. only what they would call collusion. so it may also be that the evidence has grown so significant that there's going to be some discussion about the

possibility of his answering questions about that as well. it's hard to tell at this point. we don't have enough information to really draw conclusions. i'm just speculating on both of those possibilities being possible. >> paul, we've got three filings happening tomorrow. let's start with michael cohen and there will be two filings for him, sentencing memos from both the southern district of new york where he's pleaded guilty to a variety of crimes, including a campaign finance violation he says was at the direction of the president himself and of course lying to congress with respect to the mueller probe, what are you looking for in those filings tomorrow? >> i'm looking to see how much time mueller recommends. michael flynn got the deal of the century when trump went -- when mueller asked for no jail time because he was imp catlica in a lot of really dirty stuff. that suggests that michael flynn's cooperation was extremely valuable. same thing with michael cohen. under the federal guidelines he's looking at from 51 to 63

months. he pled guilty to eight counts in new york and the very serious crime of lying to investigators in washington, d.c. so the interesting thing about michael cohen's cooperation, chris, is it kind of brings together trump's financial dealings and collusion. so the red line for trump, the line in the sand has always been mueller can investigate collusion, but don't go near my finances. what we know from michael cohen's cooperation is that there's not a bright line before trump between money and politics, which means there's not a bright line between his financial dealings and collusion. so at first it was about working with the russians because that put cash money in trump's pocket if they were going to okay the moscow tower. but then it became how can the russians help me win this

election? and if trump was lying about what he knew and when he knew it, so that means that michael cohen knows it, but it also means the russians know it, which gives the russians leverage over the president. >> jill, there are four investigations, according to a court filing we got, four investigations michael cohen is cooperating with, the russia investigation, the campaign finance violation, the trump foundation with the new york attorney general and possible tax fraud with the new york state department of taxation and finance. that's a lot. >> it certainly is, and that means that he also could end up with a very good plea deal and a recommendation. it will be interesting to see what happens. i think that what is interesting also is his own submission to the court in support of his recommendation, his own recommendation that he get no jail time actually made him

extremely sympathetic. i have never felt sympathy for michael cohen. but reading that document i came to see him much more as a human being. it's an interesting read and his lawyers did a very good job of consolidating information from friends and from people who know him, people he has helped through his children's school and portrayed him in a way that is quite different than the medallion king who -- >> right. >> deals with porn stars. and it doesn't take away that he did that and he admits it all. he says i did wrong, i was terrible. but compare me to these other things as well. and i think they did a good job. so it will be interesting to see what mueller recommends. >> well, someone pointed out, people forget all the dirty stuff john dean did before he became clean. and before nixon turned around. paul, finally on manafort, we had the flynn filing on tuesday. big question, are we going to learn new things. all the interesting stuff is

redacted. tomorrow's, mueller's office has said we're going to lay out the crimes and lies. what are you expecting in terms of how much there is or is not in that document? >> again, he's going to have to reveal some information about why he believes mueller -- why he believes manafort did not follow through with his cooperation agreement. the thing is, chris, when manafort did this it only benefits trump. it does not benefit him. he cannot get out of this guilty plea. it's irrevocable. why would he do something -- why would he voluntarily self-destruct on trump's part? >> yeah. >> on behalf of trump. again, it's a big risk. part of this is about criminal charges, but part of this is really a search for the truth. and i think that's one reason why mueller's so mad about manafort because mueller wants to know, again, did trump offer you a pardon? why is trump telling all these lies? and mr. manafort did, did you

meet with julian assange? it's not just about locking somebody up. it's also about national security. >> jill wine-banks and paul butler, thank you both. new report on saudi backed lobbyists paying for 500 rooms in trump's hotel, more evidence after this. make that thousands of configurations. it would keep an eye on my fleet. [ beeping ] and an eye out for danger. with active brake assist. if i built a van, i'd make it available in diesel and gas. and i'd build it right here, in south carolina. introducing the all new sprinter starting at $33,790. built in the usa. mercedes-benz. vans. born to run.

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we brought you the bombshell story, at a saudi paid lobbyists paid for 500 rooms at trump's d.c. hotels. the report will likely be of

interest to people who have sued the president over the emoluments clause. foreign money flowing into the president's bank account. one of the lawsuits got a win in court when it was allowed to move forwards to dis dovery. the main plaintiff in another lawsuit. democratic senator richard blumenthal? >> my reaction, there's a despicable cruel irony in the saudis using american veterans and putting them up in trump hotels, benefiting the president. and then using them to lobby against a measure that would help the 9/11 families who are seeking to sue the saudis. so the saudis are using veterans, paying the president in violation of the emoluments clause. and that $270,000 going to donald trump's organization is only the tip of the iceberg as

donald trump himself has said, he gets tens of millions of dollars in payments for the condos and rentals in new york and in chicago, all around the country, from the saudis and other foreign governments. so it adds to the strength of our lawsuit. >> yeah, i want to talk about this scheme that's so bizarre. it's unclear if it was actually a lobbying scheme or a pretense to put money in the president's pocket. but the legislation was legislation you championed, right? and the legislation would have done when? >> the legislation, which was successful, and, in fact, we overwrote a presidential veto to achieve it, gave the 9/11 families an an ongoing lawsuit the right to stay in court and extract from the saudis some compensation for the saudi's responsibility for 9/11. there is mounting evidence that the saudis sponsored, perhaps financially supported and endorsed the 9/11 attack agents.

that's what the 9/11 families are seeking. >> that is not completely established, just to be clear. >> correct. the justice against state terrorism acts, sponsored terrorism act, would give them jurisdiction over the saudis. >> the saudis pouring money into an american lobbying firm that has the veterans come to d.c., put them up, they get sent to the hill to lobby on this. you've got now one federal court that has okayed discovery in the d.c. -- in the maryland, i think a new york ag lawsuit on the emoluments clause, how big a deal is that? >> that is a very big deal to go forward with what's known as discovery, which means that documents must be produced, other evidence must be presented in response to subpoenas. but equally important we've overcome a really plausible legal hurdle to this lawsuit against donald trump. the name of our lawsuit is

blumenthal versus trump. why is going to court necessary here? because we can't do our job unless the president is compelled by the courts to come to congress -- >> and say what's happening? >> say what's happened, not only in this instance with $270,000 in payments to him personally, he's never divested his interests, but also the payments from the philippine government, the other governments that have supported -- >> trump properties. >> condos, apartments and hotel rooms. >> matthew whitaker is still the acting attorney general of the united states of america. it was, i think, four weeks ago that he said he was consulting ethics officials on possible recusal from the mueller probe. and then they've just gone silent. journalist after journalist, reporter after reporter, people in that building all the time trying to get some comment and they are just saying nothing about what those ethics officials said. what gives? >> they have to be embarrassed by the possibility that the ethics officials are going to

say matt whitaker has no business doing this job because he has no proper role as attorney general of the united states, even in that capacity. he has said things that clearly require his recusal. he has done things like his participation in a passive consumer fraud that ought to require his removal. and so the ethics officials are silent because whatever they say is going to be bad for matt whitaker. >> senator richard blumenthal, thank you very much. is the trump economy headed towards recession? tonight's thing one thing two starts next. you get the price match guarantee. so if you find your room at a lower rate, hilton is like... we're gonna match that rate and give you an extra 25% off. what would travel sites do if you found a better price? that's not my problem, it's your problem. get outta here! whoa, i really felt that performance. it's just acting, i'm really good at it.

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thing one tonight, it's the oldest political line in the book, every vote matters. >> every vote counts. >> there's no such thing as a vote that doesn't matter. it all matters. >> we can't take our foot off the gas even for a short time. every vote counts. just ask my friend former vice president al gore. >> your vote really, really, really counts. a lot. you can consider me as an exhibit a of that truth. >> you've heard it a million

times, even from beyonce, seen endorsing beto o'rourke for senate. you might tune it out, we get it, we've got to vote. there's one group of people you wouldn't think would need that reminder, the actual candidates for office, of course, or maybe they do. that's thing two in 60 seconds. coaching means making tough choices. jim! you're in! but when you have high blood pressure and need cold medicine that works fast, the choice is simple. coricidin hbp is the #1 brand that gives powerful cold symptom relief without raising your blood pressure. coricidin hbp.

you can do it. we can do this. at fidelity, our online planning tools are clear and straightforward so you can plan for retirement while saving for the things you want to do today. -whoo! voting for yourself sure seems like an exciting part of running for office, your time right there in black and white on the ballot. but a first-time candidate in arkansas missed out on that experience this week with some pretty unfortunate results. cliff farmer was on the ballot this tuesday in the runoff election forralderman in hoksie arkansas, he was returning from out of town on a business trip. his wife voted in the early election. but farmer didn't, his return flight landed at 6:30 tuesday evening, and polled closed at 7:30. so farmer was unable to cast his

ballot. here's the kicker. farmer and his opponent, becky linebaugh are tied at 223 votes each. the race will be decided next week with a coin flip or another game of chance. i learned a lesson the first time i ran. every vote counts, mine would have made a difference. [ horn honking ] audiences are giving green book an a+. woo! oh, that was a good time. it's one of the best films of the decade. what'd you say? it's one of the best films of the decade. it's amazing you said that. short and sweet.

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crash! and your cut-rate insurance might not pay for this. so get allstate, you could save money and be better protected from mayhem like me. mayhem is everywhere. so get an allstate agent. are you in good hands? for my money the single dumbest way to analyze whether the u.s. economy is doing well or not is whether the stock market is up or down. that is the way the president of the united states and his administration have chosen to grade themselves. here's treasury secretary steven mnuchin on the matter. >> it's rallied significantly since president trump took office and since the election and then again since he took office. do you view that as a report card for the administration? >> absolutely. this is a mark to market business. you see what the market thinks. >> mark to market business.

what does the market think? that feeling you share by the man at the top. >> the stock market has gained almost $3 trillion in value since the election. >> we've had $3.3 trillion. >> $3.4 trillion. >> almost $4 trillion in gain to the stock markets. >> $5.2 trillion in value. >> more than $7 trillion. we've created almost $8 trillion worth of value just in the stock market. >> i'm very proud of our stock market, what's happened since i became president. >> all-time high. think of it. nobody ever talks about it. >> so congratulations to everybody in our country. >> anybody unhappy with the 401(k)? i don't think so, right? >> well, it's been tough times for that point of view. the dow plummeted on wednesday and then fell again today by nearly 800 points before rallying, but it is now perilously close to being in negative territory for the year, but that's not the only metric the president has touted where he is getting failing grades.

>> we have a massive trade deficit with everybody. almost $800 billion a year we lose on trade. >> we have these crazy deficits. we have these horrible trade deals. you got buy our stuff. you got to buy everything, because we're not going to stand for this imbalance, and they're buying like crazy. they're buying so much that. >> don't even need it. they just want to have me be happy. >> unlike president obama, we live by a different motto. it's called promises made, promises kept. >> well, you'll never guess where the trade deficit is now. that's next. this is your wake-up call. if you have moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis, month after month, the clock is ticking on irreversible joint damage. ongoing pain and stiffness are signs of joint erosion. humira can help stop the clock. prescribed for 15 years, humira targets and blocks a source of inflammation that contributes to joint pain and irreversible damage.

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as the trade war heats up, news today the trade deficit with china hit a record high. after the stock market sank, when the president tried to tweet his way into a truce with china, sort of, there was another apparent escalation with the announcement that canada justice department arrested a top executive of one of china's

biggest telethon companies on behalf of the u.s. talk more about what kind of effect trump is having on the economy and vice versa, i'm joined by betsy stevenson, former member of the white house council of economic advisers under barack obama and editor of the economy at large who covers national politics. betsy, let's start with you and on the trade skirmish it's being called with china. it does look like it's having a tangible effect. it's unclear what the way out is. >> well, it is starting to have an effect. i think it's worth keeping in perspective that for the typical consumer, it's not having a very big effect. but what it is doing is hitting hard the industries that either depend on selling to china like farmers selling their soy beans or the industries that depend on buying the things that we put tariffs on like steel and aluminum, so our auto industry is really struggling. so we're starting to see those effects.

you know, i think that we're also starting to see the effects of this escalating trade war in slowing growth around the world. >> that's a big concern, john, and you're nodding your head. you wrote a piece today:00 how the mueller probe isn't necessarily the first thing for trump to worry about now. what did you mean by that? >> well, there is a rising possibility that he is going to be running for reelection in 2020 during a recession. growth has already slowed. and 80% of the forecasters surveyed by the national association for business economics say trade uncertainty has caused them to downgrade their projections. we're look at 2.9% growth for the year this year. 2.7% next year. and growth slowing markedly in 2020 with two-thirds of those forecasters for naeb saying we're going to be in a recession by 2020. if that's the case, that's big trouble for donald trump. the last president who ran for reelection actually during a recession was jimmy cart.

>> and he got pasted. >> the cleanest, easiest model for presidential reelection is often whether the economy is growing or not. >> that's right. >> in six months before the election. betsy, there is always this question whether presidents deserve credit or not for an economy, and obviously they get it either way. they tend to get credit when it's doing well, blame enit's doing poorly. what is your theory about what the economy is doing now and the fears of recession. that from the fed? or is the president actively pushing it in that direction? >> so i think it's important to realize that expansions don't die of old age. so we're in a really long expansion, and some people hype hype pottize. one of the things is an ill-conceived trade war. i absolutely put the blame squarely on these policies that trump has pursued, which are taking aim at trying to reduce

the amount of trade the united states does. and that is what -- what's that doing is adding fuel on a fire to slow the economy. there is nothing else that's really causing that. what the fed is doing is trying to raise rates to normal rates to ward off inflation. they're paying close attention to whether they need to slow down. in fact, they just came out saying that they may indeed be slowing down raising rates in 2019. so i don't think you can put the blame on the fed. i think the blame clearly lies on the shoulders of this ill-conceived trade war. >> remember president trump has no political cushion here. >> that's a good point. >> he has an approval rating of 40%. he has the mueller probe accelerating, and we're going to find out more tomorrow and the in the weeks to come. you a democratic congress coming to take him on. if he has the economy slow down substantially or even lapse into recession, that is going to have a very negative effect on his standing going into 2020. >> yeah, betsy, it's a good

point. having worked in a white house that inherited this economy in free fall, the worst economic crisis since the great depression and was kind of making decisions and dealing with trying to get it out of the ditch and sort of build towards normalcy, this president has from day one basically had a fairly strong economy to deal with. >> he has taken an economy that was on an upper trajectory and really thrown every obstacle in its path that he could. >> and, john, you know, the final thing i think about here is how much those tax cuts, how much of it has gone to stock buybacks, how much was a brief sugar high for markets, and how little enduring power it seems to have had macroeconomiccally and politically. >> it is possible we will find out later down the road that it has had some underlying effect on business investment and productivity growth and that sort of thing. but there is no reason to expect that right now. it looks like a sugar high. and the reason that people are

expecting growth to slow in 2019 and 2020 is that the fiscal stimulus will wear out. >> right. >> and ultimately not have any more effect. >> all right, betsy stevenson and john harwood, thank you both that is "all in" for this evening. "the rachel maddow show" starts right now. good evening, rachel. >> good evening, chris, thanks, my friend. much appreciated to you at home for joining us this how hour. a lot of news to get to tonight. today was a final day of remembran remembrance. his body was flown back to texas last night. a large private funeral was held for the former president at his home church, in houston at st. martin's episcopal church. thereafter, his body was moved by special train to college station, texas, where he was burden today at the bush family plot at the site of his presidential library, which is in college station, texas, at the campus of texas a&m. like yesterday, though, alongside the solemnity of the