wrongdoing. epstein was charged with sex trafficking last year but was found dead in his jail cell before he could stand trial. that does it for us tonight. "all in" with chris hayes is up next. tonight on "all in," our national tragedy becomes international humiliation as the u.s. breaks new records on the coronavirus while trump tries to spin 11% unemployment as a good thing. then jeffrey epstein's accomplice arrested and charged. the same office whose top prosecutor was just fired by the president. plus, the big soft target trump has made himself this political ad season. but how much can tv commercials move the needle? when "all in" starts right now. good evening from new york. i'm chris hayes. the crisis that we now find ourselves in is a human tragedy, an economic calamity but also

humiliation. the u.s. is a laughing stock or the subject of pity around the world. look at this chart of daily new confirmed coronavirus cases. the european union along with countries like indonesia, japan, australia have all gotten their cases down. some are at or near zero, and then there is that dark line going right up. that is us. our cases are skyrocketing. our government's response is a failure. we are living in this tragedy, this national humiliation for all to see. we keep setting records for new cases in a day, five times in the last eight days we set a new record for cases. and yesterday another record. the u.s. reporting 50,000 new cases in a single day. only one other country in the world of any size has ever reported more than 50,000 cases in a day, and that is brazil, the u.s. and brazil, that's it. now, the first time around back in march, when the virus first hit it was bad and both the trump administration primarily and some local leaders reacted

poorly. but it was also the case that so many other countries were getting hit hard, too. italy was one of the worst countries with the virus overwhelming hospitals. it looked like the situation was completely out of control there. they imposed a national lockdown for two months but italy has come out on the other side at least for now with less than 200 new cases a day. they did what they had to do and now life is getting back to some semblance of normal. kind of life before the pandemic. and it's not just italy. we are seeing scenes of societies emerging from the pandemic all over the world. in denmark high school students just celebrated the end of school, and not virtual school. they had physically been in classes in person. they have the amusement parks open there as well, which this girl appears to be quite happy about. in ireland, they have bars back open, along with some movie theaters, museums and other things.

in new zealaknenew zealand, theo playing rugby. in japan, the malls of tokyo are open and the streets are as crowded as the streets of new york city once were. the only difference being everyone is wearing masks. a massive public dinner on the charles dinner with no social distancing required. >> things are going more easy now, i think, about covid-19. so just -- just to enjoy life. >> just enjoy life. we've gotten rid of covid. sure looks nice. for some perspective here, consider this. florida just announced more than 10,000 cases in a single day. by contrast as matt o'brian pointed out, with a combined population of 2.6 billion people, china, japan, korea, vietnam, indonesia, the fill

fiens, australia and the entire european union are averaging 6,700 new cases a day, less than florida. all those countries have fewer cases than just florida, and that is just one state. in alabama, the number of patients being treated for coronavirus surged passed 800 for the tooirs tifirst time eve. in texas, they hit another record-breaking day for cases and hospitalizations. and the governor just finally issued a statewide mask ordinance requiring most people to wear masks in public after long resisting that kind of policy. in california, the number of people hospitalized with the coronavirus has jumped 56% in the last two weeks. we are on an island here in the united states. no other country is struggling with the virus like we are in the way we are at this point in the ark of it. it is a global failure as the biden campaign points out in

this new ad. >> you are going to be so proud of your country. we are going to win so much, you may even get tired of winning and you'll say, please, please, it's too much winning. we can't take it anymore. mr. president, it's too much. and i'll say, no, it isn't. we have to keep winning. we have to win more. we're going to win more. >> the president has this metaphor he likes to use. it is something someone must have said to him at some meeting and it got buried in his brain. it is to talk about the virus like a dying fire. >> we may have some embers or ashes or some flames coming but we will stomp them out. the idea is you can suppress the virus enough. then you can take care of the embers. that is accurate. they have suppressed it enough so they essentially have firefighters running around the country extinguishing each ember

as it appears and stopping the country from catching fire, stopping the virus from spreading. but that is not us. we are way passed that. the country is on fire. it is in flames. we cannot stomp it out. and the rest of the world is looking on in horror. joining me now the pulitzer prize winning science journalist who has been following the pandemic from the beginning across the world. is it fair as someone who has been appearing on this since its first appearance in wuhan to say this has been a disaster of global disaster in the context of other countries? >> this is a national humiliation in terms of the rest of the world. look, chris, the one that blows my mind is canada. a new survey of public opinion in canada finds that only the highest percentage of canadians willing to allow americans to come to canada right now is 24%.

but out in british columbia, only 6% of the citizens would allow americans to come across the border as long as this covid situation is out of control. canada wants that border kept tight shut. no americans allowed. and if you look around the world, those sense of disappointment is so painful to see. i was reading some newspapers in south africa where they were writing, you know, once you were our beacon. you were what we wanted to emulate. we wanted to be america, and now all we can see is total american failure. we cannot believe it. you see language like this around the world, in newspapers, in magazines and in broadcasting. it is just a sense of, oh, my gosh. how did america fail this deeply? how could this be? the leader of science, the leader of democracy, the leader

of the free world and the number one economy, and it's the number one complete failure when it comes to this pandemic. it's astonishing. and then we add salt to the wound when we say to the rest of the world, oh, by the way, we're not going to play nice in the sand box either because we're going to turn around and buy the entire supply of gilead remdesivir, the only drug out there that's been recently shown to be effective in reducing the length of time of illness and we're going to buy it all up so the rest of the world can't get any. and to the rest of the world, this is viewed as, once again, america saying, it's us versus all of you. we do what we want. >> yeah. >> we're going to take the vaccine first. we're going to take the drugs first. to heck with the rest of you. >> in identifying the difference, i mean, it seems to

me the sort of most clear-cut problem when you look at us in other countries that had bad outbreaks, there is a whole country that has avoided terrible outbreaks to begin with. >> right. >> which is great. that's what you want to do, right? but then there is the countries that have bad outbreaks. that's italy and spain and france. the key difference is those countries basically kept things locked down long enough to get down to a possible suppression level to then do the kind of putting out of the embers strategy that we never did. we never really actually got it under control in a way that would allow that, and so when we open back up, it was inevitable we would have this. >> well, we didn't get it under control in the way that you're describing nationally, but new york, new jersey, connecticut. >> yes. >> key states in the northeast did and made the proper sacrifices and got their epidemics under control. i think really, chris, there is

two key things. one is it is obviously your national leadership question. but it is also about every single european country you named as a national health system, and they -- that means that they have always centralized data, centralized purchasing, centralized policy so that it would be easy in paris more macron to turn to his health minister and say, what do you think we should do and the health minister puts some scientists together and says, here's what we should do and, boom, it happens for the whole country. here we have a completely fragmented response. just today a representative in arizona called upon the white house to shut down the coronavirus task force and get rid of tony fauci and deborah burks. you have andrew cuomo saying, we have done a good job but we will not allow any of the following

states to come. we're acting like 50, if we should include guam and puerto rico, so 50 plus individual nations than we are like a single national response. >> one -- the only -- to me the only sort of moon shot here as far as i can tell is like a very fast 100% mask adoption, the data that's accrued over the last several months suggested that in terms of effectiveness versus cost, it is the easiest thing you have. you have abbott today issuing a mask order for any county in the state that has over 20 cases, which is basically the entire state. you have this tweet from the south carolina governor henry mcmaster. let me make it clear, wear a mask and social distance now so we can enjoy high school and college football in south carolina this fall. which is preverse at one level but also maybe good for the target audience. i guess my question to you is like, can we do it sort of

massive interventions? if everyone masks up and gets on the same page, can we arrest the growth we're seeing now? >> well, look at it this way. the choice mask or not to mask is being described as if it were an economic choice, as if somehow by wearing a mask you were opposing the opening of the economy and you were somehow, you know, in favor of a lockdown and that if you didn't wear a mask you were somehow gung ho for the economy. but gold en man sacks said we could save 5% of our gdp loss, and that means a lot of jobs, if every single person when they left their home was wearing a mask at all times. that's a very simple intervention. it's cheep. anybody can do it. it requires no skills whatsoever, just put the mask on so that it covers your nose and your mouth and you're set to go.

>> let's do it, america. all right. as always, it is great to talk to you on this topic and thank you for making a little time for us tonight. >> have a great 4th of july holiday. and to all of our viewers, i hope you will be safe, happy with your family, no covid. happy independence day. >> stay safe. for more on what things look like in hard hit texas, i'm joined by our friend, dean of the national school of tropical medicine at baylor college of medicine. we have been talking to you, doctor, from the very first moments of this pandemic, from the very first confirmed cases. you have been talking to us from texas. it is now in your backyard right now. how are things in texas right now? >> yeah. it's been in our backyard for a while, chris. we are seeing this dramatic and steep axel race. it's very worrisome, especially in the metro areas, san antonio, houston, austin, dallas, the numbers have a vertical rise. and it's also accompanied by a

serious increase in hospitalizations and intensive care unit admissions. so we are in a dire public health situation. and now we have some new modeling estimates coming out of the university of pennsylvania that shows as bad as this is the numbers could double in houston and other texas cities within two weeks in the middle of july and then possibly double again by the end of july. so this is, as i said, a dire situation. unfortunately, it is not just happening in texas. this is happening in arizona and florida. it is starting in georgia. this is this massive resurges across the south and dr. fauci now has projected we could reach 100,000 cases per day, double what we're at now. if you extrapolate times the population of texas, arizona and florida, we're already about there. so we have already reached his apocalyptic predictions. clearly this is not working.

we need a new strategy. there has not been any national road map or strategy and now i have been calling for it urgently to make it happen. >> we were just showing some footage inside houston methodist hospital. we have been getting reports inside hospitals in harris county around houston and bear county as well that now it's almost a familiar genre of b roll. it is doctors in icu units in ppe overwhelmed. we have seen it in spain, new york. we are seeing it in texas now. the big question is does the health care system have capacity? is there reason to think that because of surge capacity, because the rise here might be maybe slower than new york because of the testing capacity that this can be accommodated in texas? >> well, you know, here in our texas medical center in houston, which is the world's largest with 60 institutions, 100,000

employees, we still have a little bit of room. we still have some room and we are doing better at icu care because of all the new interventions. you have the clotting therapy, the plasma treatments, the remdesivir, so we are getting patients out of the icu. but if those numbers continue to climb as they are, by july we will be in trouble. so the issue is this. we've got to stop community transmission. and the question is whether the measures that have been taken on so far are going to be adequate or do we have to go to the next level? and we're going to have to be asking this question all over the united states because we're in the same situation in arizona, in florida, and it's not going to stay in the south. the numbers will start to rise precipitously until there is a national strategy for conducting these interventions with daily

messaging and hopefully with a greater involvement from the cdc that can take the lead rather than the white house task force that has mainly their strategy has been let the states lead and we'll provide fema support, ppe and supply chain management and other -- and manufacturing and other measures. that strategy is clearly a failure. and lauri kind of pointed that out as well. it's failed us miserably. this is the largest public health collapse in the history of the nation. >> final question. when you talk about other interventions asking that question, what do you mean by that? do you mean places like metropolitan areas going back to shelter in place, closing most businesses, stuff like that? >> that's right. we may have to go there. at least to get this back under control because when you've got that massive surge, that vertical slow, clearly the

intervention today that the governor has demanded, a full mask wearing by the entire population, that will help. whether it is going to be enough or whether we're going to have to go that next measure, i can't really say. and again this is why you need a national strategy. because you have the models that you could look at for every metro area. work with the epidemiologists at the cdc and say, is this enough or do we have to go further? >> dr. peter, as always, thank you so much for your time tonight. >> thank you so much, chris. all the best. the president used the new jobs number today as proof the economy is roaring back. there is a lot more to that story and it's not good. we'll explore that next. that ne. safe drivers save 40%!!! guys! guys! check it out. safe drivers save 40%!!! safe drivers save 40%! safe drivers save 40%!!! that's safe drivers save 40%. it is, that's safe drivers save 40%.

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the president came out today to do a victory lap on the latest jobs report, which at first glance looked pretty good. but i got to say to my ears, it sounded like it's 15 cases and pretty soon it will go down to zero but for the economy. yes, some jobs are snapping back. basically the job gains today were mainly people that were furloughed and went back to work. when it comes to permanent job losses, that number went up by almost 600,000. and crucially, this might be the worst part, today's data was collected before the coronavirus

surge in mid-june. there is a lot of reason to be very, very worried about where the economy is headed right now. for more on that, the chief economist that connects businesses with freelancers and, adam, here is my big thing about this. i am but a humble cable news host with a ba and a few econ classes and i feel like i'm losing my mind because i think, this does not look good and i look at wall street and investment analysts who seem to think things are pretty good. am i wrong? am i crazy, or is there a lot to worry about? >> i think it is a particularly misleading labor market right now. like you said at the open, 4.8 million jobs, that's a lot of jobs. that is confusing people because at the end of the day there is still $15 million who lost their jobs. the unemployment rate is bigger than it ever was during the greet recession and it is just

way, way too soon to unfurl the mission accomplished banner. we have a long, long way to go. >> there is a low hanging fruit issue on the jobs, which is like the jobs to come back first are the easiest ones and then as you start climbing back up, you have got harder and harder ones, right? someone running a nightclub or works on broadway, they're not back yet and i don't know when they're going to be back. there is a lot of people in industries that will be affected for a very, very long time. >> yeah. if you have small businesses, the survey looked at how many think they're going to be back to normal within six months and if food service is an accomodation, 75% think it will be six months or longer until they're back to normal. a lot of businesses, a lot of industries, they have a very, very long, slow recovery ahead of them. >> there is a very perverse political dynamic, which is that there are voices within the

republican party. basically mitch mcconnell, a lot of people in the republican senate and some advisers to the president want no further rescue money put into the economy because their theory of the case is you need to starve them out of there so that they have to go back to work because if they make it too possible for them not to work, no one will come back to work and the president won't get back to wore-elected. seems like we need rescue money here. >> yeah. i think with unemployment rates still at 12% and this many people still out of work and this far from recovered, we definitely need more fiscal spending, especially in targeted areas. i think small businesses that are struggling the most are going to continue to fail. i think the unemployment benefits expiring is going to be bad news for households, and i think state and local government needs more money, too. i understand that that's a lot of money. i understand we spend a lot of

money already, but we're dealing with a historic economic crisis here. and i don't think sitting back will accomplish what we want and i don't think trying to force people back into the labor market by making unemployment benefits cheaper is going to do the job either. >> yeah. there is this $600 sort of bonus, which has been hugely important. i mean, if you look at some of the cash flow data is fascinating. i just saw a paper that said that people's liquid bank balances went up 36%, more this year because of the success of the unemployment bonus and the $1,200 check. but you take that away in july, and that seems to me like that's bad, right? that's bad for the macro economy if that just goes away? >> yeah. with this many people out of work, we still need support. we need support. i get what they're saying being concerned about labor supply effects. a lot of people are making more

on unemployment than they are at their job. but those effects are just swamped right now by the demand effects of this. and besides, it's totally irrelevant because you can device a program that incent vises people to go back to work. let them take their $600 with them when they get retihired. >> exactly. the big e problem to me here and economists and people are missing this a little bit, which is that like you got to suppress the virus. you can have all the economic incentives you want in the world, if you got an outbreak, that's not going to work. >> yeah. i think that there was this idea early on that really the lockdowns were doing all the economic work and that you could just end the lockdowns and people would go back to normal. but the evidence that we have

seen so far, you know, some well done studies and kind of common sense suggestions you end the lock dlts downs and people don't go back to normal. it is the virus changing behavior. and if people did go back to normal, that's going to be even more problematic. >> that's right. adam, who i follow and read all the time on all these issues, thank you so much for making the time. >> thanks for having me. next, a surprise twist in the case of jeffrey epstein. his companion is under arrest and facing federal charges. those details after this. after s

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today we got a surprise twist in the case of jeffrey epstein, the convicted sex offender and rich money manager who rubbed elbows with presidents and celebrities. back in july of last year, epstein of course was arrested and charged with sexually assaulting dozens of underaged girls and a month later he was found dead in his prison cell in

an apparent suicide. now almost a year later, jeffrey epstein's long-time companion and alleged accomplice has been arrested and charged with a variety of crimes, including conspiracy conspiracy. there are numerous women who have spoken on the record throughout the years, decades without maxwell recruiting and grooming them and participating in their abuse. her indictment describes her meeting one victim when she was only 14, taking her to shopping trips and roping her into sexualized messaging with jeffrey epstein. it has been a mystery how she escaped a prosecution as long as she did. but tonight she is in federal custody. for more on what she is accused on doing, i am joined by the investigative reporter for "the new york times." she coauthored a profile by

maxwell. what is the charging documents lay out about the case against maxwell? >> well, this is huge. this spells out criminal charges against maxwell that mirror some of the allegations we had already seen in civil records. basically that in the 1990s when she was at first epstein's girlfriend and then just a very close companion of his, lived in his homes, shared the bank accounts, helped run his affairs, that she also participated in helping to lure underage girls into his orbit where they were sexually abused, sexual abuse that she allegedly participated in. and, so, there are in this criminal case against her, there are three minor girls who were allegedly victimized by her in the course of the 1990s. >> what's so crazy about this is that if you followed this case

at all for years and, in fact, decades, there are numerous women who when they -- i don't think there is a single accuser of jeffrey epstein who doesn't mention maxwell. i mean, it is the case that people on the record, in civil suits and other cases had said from the beginning consistently story after story after story that maxwell was working essentially as his trafficker, that she would scout girls that were 14 in new york city. the why now, how did she get away with this for so long hangs over this. >> yeah. you're absolutely right. and when epstein was arrested last year, attention pretty quickly shifted to maxwell, as she looked -- she appeared to be the potential biggest coconspirator, preying on these young, underage girls. and there had been these allegations in civil lawsuits, and she had been able to by and

large dodge any accountability. and last year when he was arrested, i was among the reporters who set off trying to find her. she was not. you know, her lawyers wouldn't answer phone calls. she couldn't be found. she basically disappeared from new york for several years. and, so, over the past year, we have all wondered where has she been and is anything going to happen to her? it was interesting. we now realize in the indictment and the prosecutor was speaking about this today, she had gone to elaborate means to try to remain in hiding. she used her phone number. she has changed her addresses, but they had been without her knowing it, it sounds like, had been tracking her every move. when she finally moved into a mansion in new hampshire recently, they were able to finally pounce and arrest her and bring her into custody. >> my understanding, this is out of the southern district of new york which was until recently headed up by jeffrey berman.

he sort of refused until his deputy who was the head of the criminal division was allowed to take over as acting. but this is a jeffrey berman sdny case. this has been in the works for a while. is it fair to say that? >> that's right. this case has clearly been in the works for a while. it's also worth mentioning that there were federal prosecutors in florida who basically let epstein flip from their grips in 2009, that there had been investigators in florida and fbi officials who had been investigating him for a long time and starting to piece together the puzzle of his kree dags and other potential coconspirators in 2009 and the feds in florida had basically let him slip away, enter into a pretty sweetheart plea deal. it was really remarkable to watch new york come back, you know, just last year with a really strong case against him.

and it is worth noting that that actually followed some pretty incredible reporting that julie brown and her colleagues at the miami herald did. this is another case when the kind of government officials had failed to hold this person accountable, some really talented journalists stepped in and helped expose what had happened behind the scenes. >> yeah. in fact, the u.s. attorney who had overseen the office that cut that sweetheart deal was the secretary of labor under donald trump, which is part of the newsworthiness of that story, and he ended up leaving that post, resigning in the midst of that because he had over seen that. the terms of that are almost impossibly gentle given the sort of scope of what he was accused of. there is his death in custody last year. so now, of course, the question of maxwell's safety, of course, but also like this is now an

active case again. i mean, there is this sort of idea when epstein died that his secrets went with him. we know that he knows lots of powerful people. we know that he had hobnobbed with powerful people. he had given money to all sorts of institutions. the same is true of maxwell who you can find the who's who list of pictures, but she now is there and there is some question as to where this might lead. >> it is hard to imagine anybody who might know more of epstein's secrets and the other people who were involved in his orbit and his pattern other than maxwell. she was, by his account, the person closest to him, his, you know, not former girlfriend turned best friend, turned house manager. she had access to the bank accounts. she had access to his personal records. she traveled and partied with his friends. she brought powerful people into his orbit. she, including prince andrew who is another person that appears to be a subject of interest in

this investigation. so it is pretty remarkable to have her now in federal custody and having to answer questions from the federal prosecutors and investigators. i think there is no limit to what she knows. >> yeah. it is a wild turn of events. great reporting on this. thank you so much for reporting tonight. >> happy to be here. >> coming up, not only is the president falling behind the polls. what's behind the two month streak and what could be moving the needle ahead. rstore where we've got the best deals on refrigerators, microwaves, gas ranges and grills. and if you're looking for... (grilled cheese sizzles) (timer chimes) ♪ ♪

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putin pays the taliban cash to slaughter our men and women in uniform. and trump is silent, weak, controlled. instead of condemnation, he insists russia be treated as our equal. instead of retaliation, he

invites putin to america. >> every day brings new reporting about intelligence that russia sec ceretly offered taliban soldiers money as a bounty on american soldiers, making this particular story a ripe target for ads. unlike four years ago, ad makers are no longer focussing on his character in isolation, they're pouring tens of millions of dollars into ads yolking his behavior on substantive issues. this ad the day after the russian bounty story broke. >> now we know vladimir putin pays a bounty for the murder of american soldiers. donald trump knows, too, and does nothing. when trump tells you he stands by the troops, he's right. just not our troops.

>> these ads are not limited to republicans who hate donald trump. just a day after that ad, a progressive attack released its own attack on the president. >> he shakes his hand, an american dies. they pal around, another roadside attack. intelligence reports on his desk. he says nothing to his russian master, takes no action to protect us. if you are going to act like a traitor, you don't get to thank us for our service. >> what is interesting to see is how joe biden's campaign is responding. positive ads about joe biden may be more effective for his campaign this cycle than negative ads about donald trump. and in that context, this new ad makes a lot of sense. >> this job? this job is about protecting americans. it takes strength, courage, compassion, resilience. that's a president. >> of course, there is another

big question looming over all this in what will likely be one of the most expensive presidential races ever. how much do tv ads matter? we will talk about that with one of the cofunders of the lincoln project next. (timer chimes) and the clock could be ticking towards bad breath,

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biden campaign and the democratic national committee just outraised trump and the republican national committee for the second month in a row, beating them in fundraising for the entire second quarter. the biden campaign did not disclose how much money they have on hand, trump campaign which has been fundraising since day one is flush with cash, reporting almost $300 million in the bank, which they're using for tens of millions of dollars worth of tv ads in key swing states that trump won in 2016 including a bunch he didn't think he would have to contest like ohio and georgia. it seems pretty clear as we head into the final stretch here the next four months that both sides will essentially have unlimited money for advertising. the deeper question is given the state of the country and its

current polarization, just how much can advertising actually move voters' behavior in 2020? to talk than i'm joined by cornell belcher and rick wilson, former republican political strategist, co-founder of the lincoln project and a political action committee. i'll go to each of you in turn with this question of in the year 2020 in a presidential, if you're running a state rep race or a congressional where people don't really know the candidates that well, i think tv ads probably matter a ton, right? there is name recognition, all that. but when we're talking about in the year 2020 with the country in the state it's in, with the name recognition that is almost 100% for both candidates, how much ads matter at the margins? rick, i'll start with you. >> look, in the words of the great political scientist depeche mode, everything counts in large amounts. so when you've got advertising volumes throughout in the tens of hundreds of millions of dollars, they still will move numbers.

but the thing to understand, chris, it's not just -- you can't look at it just as the tv platform anymore. i am completely platform agnostic when it comes to advertising and have been for a while now. so you'll see the work we do in the lincoln project spanning a whole variety of places where we know we're going to get eyeballs. we're going to be digital. we're going to be on cable. we're going to be on broadcast. we have a whole spectrum of choices here. and look, primarily people have gone increasingly to digital as the first wave of getting a message. they're going see it on their social media platforms. they're going see it on their preroll videos. digital is the primary battlefield. when i use the word "television," i don't care what screen you see the television on. >> right. cornell, what do you think? >> well, i'm going to quote another great political philosopher, this one being l.l. cool jay, mama said knock you out. i still think television has a power that the others do not.

now is television what it was in 1990? no. is television what it was quite frankly in early 2000 when obama ran in 2008? no, it's not. we see diminishing returns on television because people have so many more platform, especially younger voters. and that's why you see a lot of the penetration with digital going to these younger voters. but still, pound for pound, television is still the best way to convey and reach a broad audience. and quite frankly, to deliver a punch the way my friend at the lincoln project has been delivering punches is still a powerful medium for that. >> so i want to ask you, rick, what your theory in the case here. there is one level which the lincoln level is just trolling donald trump and inside his head manifestly. he watches the ads. he gets upset about them. he tweets about them. there is that part of it. but "the new york times" had this sort of interesting piece the other day in which they polled people who voted for trump and definitely aren't

going to vote for him again. it's a small part of the electorate, but they exist. then there are some set of people who are on the fence. that the people you want to reach? do you think there are people who are vestigal republicans? >> there are a whole groups. donald trump is losing support among key demographics across the board. he is losing support among -- even among white noncollege voters. he has lost a lot of support among white suburban college educated voters. women, particularly men, independent he is losing support with. he is starting to lose support with seniors. and if he treads off low-key bits here and there, you know, the campaigns that are running against him, whether it's the outside work like lincoln project and other groups or the inside work like biden's campaign, yet this is a mathematics problem that donald trump will have trouble overcoming in the electoral college calculus. >> you know, cornell, there is a bunch of different ways to think

about ads. one sway there is negative ads. there is positive ads, both i think are aimed at persuasion. i thought this ad was interesting because it's an ad aimed specifically who are already persuaded, but to get them to turn out. i want to play a little bit and get your thoughts on the degree to which that kind of message asking work too in terms of turnout. take a listen. >> i donald john trump do solemnly swear. that i will faithfully execute the office of president of the united states, so help me god. ♪ they're the television mermaid, there is a riot in the street ♪ >> if you have been waiting to break glass in case of emergency, we are there. ♪ a lion at their feet >> black lives matter. my spirit. you know what? i'm grateful that i came out. because i matter. >> clearly, cornell, that's for people that already feel a certain way about the president.

but i do wonder the degree to which what evidence there is or whether people have run big turnout-focused ads in the past. >> well, i'm going to get campaign nerdy wonk for you. one, people -- when you look at negative ads, really what i look at for the negative ad is really the sort of make voters pause in consideration for that candidate, especially if you're up against an incumbent, you want to hit that incumbent and make voters sort of pause and maybe pull back. then you have to sort of pivot from that and give them some place to rest on, which is the challenger. why challengers struggle so much. so negative ads, we all hate negative ads, but they work, and they bring pause. when you look at a lot of the ads around i think in the presidential race right now, like some of the stuff the lincoln project is doing, the monmouth poll just came out today and it had the race 53-41. there is only a small number of people who are actually undecided. but chris, i am really big into

this ideal of feeding the flame, right? you want to feed the energy of the base, and you want to feed the energy of your supporters and grow that, because right now it's not about the length of the number of voters, but it's about the certainty and strength and enthusiasm of that support. that's where these ads can be helpful. >> also, rick, it strikes me, everything that i'm reading now, obviously, i've been covering the campaign, as long as it's been going on, right? but it just seems like everything changes in march. there is a world of historical catastrophe. the country, we're going through a governing failure as bad as probably anything since herbert hoover in the great depression probably, i guess. and i guess my feeling is that 90% of this is what is happening. like and all the campaign, maybe i'm just being overly reduction i, but it does seem to me that the thing that's driving everything about the numbers right now is the country is objectively on fire.

>> chris, this is a president who managed to sort of stumble his way through the first three years, and then when tr true externalities came, when covid appeared and he chose to do nothing. he chose to deceive the country about the severity of it. he chose to delay taking action to either protect american lives or the economy, and now he is paying the price for it. and donald trump every day continues to believe things like oh, it's just going to disappear. what if roosevelt had said the japanese may have bombed pearl harbor, but they'll just go away tomorrow. don't worry about it. this is not the way a president leads. it's not the way a president behaves. but what we're seeing here is this magical thinking, this reality bubble around him where he thinks the economy -- you know, jared yesterday said things are going to come roaring back in july. well, it's july 1, and we're again facing a precipice with this pandemic, and the little

financial blip of a few jobs in june is about to flip over again. and he owns all those things. and that's what is hurting him the most, chris. he owns all these things. he screwed up up and he owns it. hi, owns it all. he thinks defending the honor of the confederacy in the wake of the largest social protest in race in a generation is going to be his way forward. cornell belcher and rick wilson, thank you both for making time tonight. >> you bet, chris. >> that is "all in" this evening. "the rachel maddow show" starts right now. good evening, rachel. >> good evening, chris. thanks, my friend. i appreciate it. and thanks to you at home nor joining us this hour. we're really happy to have you with us tonight. it is thursday, july 2nd, and tonight i am happy to report that we have crunched the numbers. we have gone over them closely, very closely. in keeping with the times, we've actually even made a graph to help our understanding of these numbers. but according to