until election day. but 15? that's not the only number to note this morning. how about 27 million people. that's the number of people who have already voted as of today shattering records as voting starts this morning in one of the most important states this election. we're taking you live to florida where smart kamala kamala is campaigning. then there's the number two. that's how many rallies president trump will hold in arizona this afternoon alone as he hopes to hold onto that battle grown. mo -- battle ground. 44, that's the president's predecessor barack obama set to hit the trail this week to help joe biden make his closing argument with the backdrop, the pandemic. and 40 million. the number of people around the world who have now been infected with the coronavirus. and this morning a grim new warning from top officials about what the next two months will hold. i'm hallie jackson in washington on this monday morning along

with our nbc news team. mike memo vaughn, let me start with you. the president is focussed on winning back a state that handed him a win in 2016. >> reporter: good morning. he spent yesterday in california and nevada and today he has two stops on the campaign trail. a rally in arizona before heading to tucson. i was talking to official about the stops. in prescott, donald trump won by a 2 to 1 margin. the official saying if there's a place they need to juice sport to make up for deficits, this is it. the second stop is greater tucs tucson. pima county.

the same official saying we must stop the bleeding in pima county. they can only afford to lose so. support in urban areas. on thursday, the final presidential debate. he will be making stops in pennsylvania, north carolina on the campaign trail as well. it's important and crucial winning arizona. the map becomes complicated if he loses arizona. just on friday the campaign manager for joe biden called the shot here saying they were going to win arizona. i can't understand underscore what that means here in terms of historical context. these steps behind me, the courthouse steps, this is where barry gold water announced his run in 1946 and where john mccain held his last election rally in his run for the presidency. but now it could be this state, the long-time conservative state

that up ends the political map and could give joe biden the win two weeks from now. >> and we're showing the week ahead on the campaign trail. there's a lot going on and a lot to be done. there are a lot of people out supporting the candidates. mike, you're in nashville. joe biden is where the second and final presidential debate will be. we understand joe biden is pretty much focussed on dabt prep, not doing a done of in person campaigning over the next few days. it's interesting how focussed the biden campaign has been on the pandemic and the way the president started to respond at the rallies vaughn was talking about for president trump, he essentially mocked biden for as he put it listening to the scientists on co-vid. the biden campaign jumped right on that. huh? >> yeah. the biden campaign thanking the president and the trump campaign for making their argument for them. that campaign has always felt the president's handling of the coronavirus would be the number one issue for voters. biden's message is he would listen to those experts n that

he would be guided for that. when the president says, they said thank you very much, mr. president. i think it's an indication, and you know this from covering the campaigns. these camps couldn't be on different planets more different planets sometime. that's why i took note of something over the weekend as i looked at both sides. there were supporters tweeting the same exact image, and there was an image of a new york times prediction, projection from 2016 that at this point in this election four years ago, hillary clinton had a more than 90% chance of being elected president. that didn't work out. but there's a reason both sides are amplifying that message. bidens, it's about what the campaign manager said over the weekend. we have to guard against complacency. she said the truth is that donald trump could win this election and all indications are that this thing is going to go down to the wire. so yes, while the focus is on

what's happening behind me, the biden campaign getting back to the campaign trail. senator harris has been off the trail for weeks no not just with the diagnosis of a staffer with covid-19. she's going to be in florida with an early vote rally. today is the first day of in person voting. and jill biden is in pennsylvania setting the ground for wednesday, the big day when president obama is going to do some first in person campaigning for his former vice president in philadelphia. >> shannon, the trump campaign, it seems like he's running 2020 from his 2016 play book. that came to stark relief over the weekend. calling on political opponents being locked up. he's using what the contents of what may be potentially a foreign intelligence operation in this campaign.

talk about how this played out. >> hallie, so much really has chan changed in four years. when you look at the campaign rallies despite a pandemic, they're packed with people closely together chanting "lock her up". the president said he wants to do rallies the way he was in 2016. in this narrative, the president and his allies, they won 2016 by outcampaigning hillary clinton. the idea that he who does the most rallies wins. they're trying to put the same air of corruption around biden as clinton. but there's differences and that strategy doesn't appear to be sticking. i will note one big difference between now and 2016. the president does not have the same clear message to voters for why they should vote for him. in 2016 there was the her emails and lock her up, but there was also he was going to build a wall. he was going to bring back jobs

from china. he was going to tear up nafta. he had specific concrete promises to people in addition to making them uncomfortable with hillary clinton that he was able to say this is what i'll deliver to you if you elect me. that message has been muddled about his second term by all the other grievances and side controversies, and when he does get to a second term agenda, it's vague. it's rebuild the economy. it's about health care plan that he has yet to unveil. and so that's what i think is really one of the key things missing, and when i talk to trump crossover voters from 2 6 2016, that's the thing they want to hear. what are you going to do in the second term? what's your promise for me? >> one of the things we talk about is 15 days until election day. it's not like that's when voters are going to start voting. so far 27 million of them already have. if the same number of people turn out this year as in 2016, based on the early voting

numbers, something like nearly 20% of people will have already voted essentially. you're in florida where that starts today. tell me what you're seeing on the ground. >> sorry. picking up here. 17 .7% of the voters in the state of florida have already voted. so yes, a tremendous number of voters in the state of florida voting by mail. and then today we have the in person voting. it's the early in person voting. so the line right now has thinned out, but this morning before the polls opened, there was a long line here. it worked its way down. there were about 30 to 40 minute waits. as we look nationwide at the participation in this, take a look at the statistics. we're talking about a 312% increase in people nationwide choosing to do mail-in early voting. and then, of course, we look at the number of states that have

mail-in voting, which is now 27 states with mail-in early voting going on right now. when you look at the number of people who decided they're getting involved, you can realize that this is, perhaps, going to break another record on voter participation in any election we've seen in the united states. we certainly see it breaking records right now in florida. >> kerry sanders live in fort lauderdale. great work to all i don't haof . a quick programming night. mike posted up in nashville. that thursday the president and former vice president face off at the next and final presidential debate. kristen welker at nbc will moderate. our team will bring the analysis. join us for that special coverage thursday 8:00 eastern on msnbc. we have a lot more ahead on this show including new evidence russia may be amplifying

dangerous qanon conspiracy theories online. we are joined next with an exclusive you'll only see here at a plea to the director of national intelligence. first, coronavirus outbreaks sweeping the midwest. updates from wisconsin and north dakota where hospitals are struggling to keep up with the surge of patients. you'll also hear from one front line nurse from michigan who says symptoms seem to be getting worse. >> they are more sick than the ones we saw in the beginning of the pandemic. inning of the pandemic when i was in high school, this was the theater i came to quite often. the support we've had over the last few months has been amazing. it's not just a work environment. everyone here is family. if you are ready to open your heart and your home, check us out. we thought for sure that we were done. and this town said: not today. ♪

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we're probably in the 7th ining of this pandemic right now, but the hardest part is probably ahead. >> we do have vaccines and therapeutics coming down the pike, but when you look at the time period for that, the next 6 to 12 weeks are going to be the darkest of the entire pandemic. >> that is almost certainly not what you want to hear to start your monday, but that is the

reality. that's what's happening in this country. the two top health experts warning we need to hunker down the next couple months. that's because the u.s. seems to be the climbing toward this possible third wave. you have cases rising in nearly 40 states over the last two weeks with hospitalizations starting to tick up. co-vid hospitalizations in wisconsin, for example, have tripled in the last month. and in north dakota there are fewer than 20 icu beds left in the entire state. around the world more than 40 million people and counting have been infected with the virus as of this morning. the world health organization is about to give an update on that within the next hour. we're going to be watching that and bring you any news from that briefing. i want to gabe at a hospital near milwaukee. gabe, local officials are calling the situation basically a five alarm fire. tell us what you've been seeing. >> reporter: yeah. right behind me is the 530 bed emergency field hospital that opened last week.

thankfully it's not -- doesn't have any patients just yet, but the fear is that it will start to fill up with patients as more and more co-vid cases are seen at the hospitals throughout this state. now, for weeks doctors here have been sounding the alarm saying the situation is growing more dire. you see the latest numbers from that chart of co-vid cases here in wisconsin. steadily rising over the past few weeks and on friday the state saw its most co-vid cases yet. over the weekend the president held a rally here. but as we speak a court hearing is scheduled in wisconsin regarding the governor's -- some of the governor's restrictions that bars and restaurants and businesses be at 25% capacity. the state is facing a lawsuit over that, and it's heading to court. what we've been seeing over the

past several weeks is an increase in co-vid cases here as you mentioned, 38 states across the country including wisconsin have seen a rise in the co-vid cases over the last two weeks. >> it is scary, gabe. and it is disturbing trend that officials are looking at. gabe on the ground in wisconsin. thank you. we talked about north dakota a moment ago. let's turn back to that. it's one of the states seeing the worst spike in cases. hospitals filling up. patients being sent to hospitals hours away, even across state lines and a grim reminder of the reality there. a state legislative candidate will be on the ballot next week even though he died of the coronavirus two weeks ago. renee mock is with us. thank you for being on the show this morning. we appreciate it. >> thank you for having me. >> not long ago north dakota

seemed to be doing okay, relatively few cases. now it has the most per capita in the poircountry. what happened? >> i guess the biggest increases started to happen after the july 4th holiday, and we've been on an upward trend since then. in the last month especially our active cases have more than doubled. our hospitalizations are higher now for half the month of october than the entire month of september, and we've also had an increase in our hospitalization capacity. moving forward when we're thinking about this there have been measures suggested, guidelines put out there as recommendations, but no enforcement has been required at this point, and so when we're talking about regulations and rules, large groups is obviously something that is not recommended during this time. but we continue to see large weddings, large gatherings, and

people still getting together despite that recommendation not to. >> and that's i imagine one of the hard things to combat. right? because people, there's a lot of talk about pandemic fatigue. people are sick and tired of something to take precautionary steps even though it's the proven science as to how the slow down the spread of the coronavirus. you talk about your state with hospitalizations and beds. according to the health department, there's only 16 icu beds open in the state. talk about the game plan if things keep getting worse there. >> so our local hospitals here i know have surge plans in place. they've added additional co-vid beds to allow access for individuals with co-vid to be seen at our local facilities. if that capacity continues to increase, we would have to look at additional space and possibly expanding into a field hospital

we had done a setup of that similar to what you had shown in wisconsin in bismarck and fargo. that would be the next step if we run out of capacity at local hospitals. >> one of the things you were vocal about in talking about is the importance of wearing masks and the idea of maybe putting in place a mask mandate. even though north dakota's governor has been resisting t t that. let me play for you something else said in the state about the idea of enforcing that kind of a mandate. >> the mask mandate, t going to be hard to enforce. you know, i think there's a segment of the population that doesn't want to do this. they feel it's not something that they feel that the government should be forcing on them. >> is he right? is the enforcement piece of this too much for the state to be able to overcome? >> at this point i feel like the

enforcement piece, it could still be difficult, but that should not be the reason why we are not implementing a mask mandate. the benefits outweigh the risks when it comes to the mask use. we think about similar types of situations when you talk about wearing seat belts or tobacco prevention, also focussed on secondhand smoke, and it's similar to that. i mean, it's a protective measure we can put in place. there will be individuals that use that once it's enforced that wouldn't have if it wasn't. that's what i would hope to see as a gain through that mask mandate. >> okay. renee mock, we appreciate your time this morning in the midst of what i know is an incredibly busy week for you. thanks for being on the show. >> thank you. up next, republican lawmakers seem to be trying to distance themselves more than they have before with criticism of president trump. will it really make a difference? more on that plus a congressman

joins me on the looming deadline for congress to agree on some kind of co-vid relief. he has news about qanon and the election. first breaking news this morning. the supreme court is announcing plans to hear a case on the remain in mexico policy. they want to send asylum applicants back to mexico while they wait for their cases to be heard. an immigrant's rights group argue the policy put the lives of thousands of immigrants in danger. we've learned the supreme court is preparing to take up the case later this year or early next. do you have questions about medicare options

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discussions over the last several days that give us a hope that we might be able to reach some kind of an impreeagreemente next 48 hours. >> the sticking point, senate republicans. with me, democrat from illinois and assistant democratic whip. thank you for being back on the show this morning. >> absolutely. thank you. >> so let's start briefly on this co-vid relief bill and the stimulus possibility. not clear at all how this end up coming together. it's not impossible, but it doesn't seem that likely. the house speaker says she's optimistic. when you look at the white house offer, it's nearly 2 trillion. stimulus checks with more money for kids. $400 a week for unemployment benefits. $300 billion for cities and states. why not take this deal or would you take this deal as part of a bigger compromise? >> i think that speaker pelosi is working to get to yes today. i think the question is whether the white house is as well.

i think one of the things that she mentioned is the design of the bill keeps changing by the hour. very frequently. and the president keeps changing his position on different issues. the latest substantive issue is with regard to testing. stating a seeing the single highest daily rate of virus cases and the president doesn't want to do the widespread testing necessary to determine who has the disease and to treat them. and that is just wrong. it seems to be driven by political considerations. we have to put that aside and get to yes today. my constituents need this bill. the american people do as well. >> what are the chances you get to yes today, sir? >> i'm hopeful. i heard your clip of mark meadows speaking just moments ago or recently. and i think that if there's a

good faith effort on the part of the white house, he's going to have a lot of democrats including speaker pelosi on board with getting this done right now. >> again, still leaves the question open on senate republicans but i think that's something that's going to have to get hashed out if something comes together. i want to have you put your house intelligence committee member house on. you sent a letter raising concerns about russia again trying to interfere with our election by pushing qanon conspiracy theories online. this is new to viewers and everyone on msnbc this morning. tell me what you want. >> well, as you know, hallie, qanon has been labeled by the fbi as a domestic terrorist threat. and it's gaining speed online. what we know is the russians are amplifying this conspiracy as part of their what i believe to be their disinformation campaign to interfere in the 2020

election. and basically what i'm asking is what is he doing about this? this is serious. it's not just an issue with regard to political disinformation. it's also something that could spark violence and criminality which the fbi has already talked about. >> we cover this conspiracy theory and these dark and scary corners of the internet. a number of public officials including the president have refused to denounce this movement, even while praising the adherence. talk to us about why that's troubling to you. >> just the other night savannah guthrie asked the president point-blank to disavow the recovery. he refused. in part i believe because the conspiracy theory suggests he's the savior and in alignment with the followers. if so, if he is at the head of

our government not willing to disavow this conspiracy theory, then it's a big problem, because it gives only more fuel for this conspiracy theory to continue online, and to possibly lead to violence and increased criminality. not to mention to throw yet another piece of disinformation into the current disinformation online about the elections. >> right. given that, though, given the way the president has been on this, what makes you optimistic that john rat cliff, that your letter will be heard and received in the way you hope it will be. >> well, i'm hopeful that he'll respond. i asked him to respond by october 30th. the most important thing is we need the intelligence community to be able to do its job. the fbi is investigating this conspiracy theory right now. and it's trying its best to take

it down. i understand youtube has taken down sites related to qanon. we need to see the other social media platforms do the same. but most importantly, hallie, we got to fight the russians online with their disinformation campaign. this is crucial, because they did it in 2016. they're doing it again now. >> let me ask you about another piece of potential russian disinformation here talking about ratcliff. he was out this morning and disputed the assertions from intel committee chair adam schiff who said this discussion over hunter biden and the story that came out is part of a russian disinformation campaign. let me play it for you. >> let me be clear. the intelligence community doesn't believe that, because there's no intelligence that supports that. and we have shared no intelligence with chairman schiff or any other member of congress that hunter biden's laptop is part of some russian

disinformation campaign. it's not true. >> let me be clear on what nbc has been reporting. the fbi based on sources with our teams have been looking into whether there is a part of a foreign intel operation. is there anything you can share with us on this? >> what i can tell you for sure is that giuliani was the source of this hard drive and disinformation for the new york post story. also the intelligence community has been saying repeatedly that giuliani is the vehicle for russian disinformation right now about hunter biden and the bidens. to say there's no evidence that somehow these emails and text messages or this hard drive is part of a potentially a russian disinformation campaign doesn't make any sense to me. >> congressman, member of the intelligence committee, thank you for being with us this morning. i appreciate you taking the time. >> coming up, turning back to politics in the show. facing a tough challenge in

texas, senator john cornyn is the latest to try to distance himself from donald trump. in an interview he said he disagreed with the president on the deficit, the border wall but he kept his opposition private. he said you either love him or hate him. i try to not get into fights with him. as i've observed, they don't usually end too well. others are trying to maybe distance themselves from the president with at least one senator outright rejecting him. watch. >> he mocks e vangelicals behin closed doors. i'm now looking at the possibility of a republican blood bath in the senate. >> are you proud of your support for president trump? >> i'm proud to be fighting for arizona every single day. >> is that a yes or no for president trump? >> i think we could lose the white house and both houses of

congress. it could be a blood bath of water gate proportions. >> lee ann caldwell is on capitol hill for us. is this a come to jesus moment for republicans or is there something else going on here? >> there's the long-game and the short-game. i put some of the senators into different categories. the long game, senator sasse, romney and others. when they look at what the republican will look like in a post trump era should the president lose. they're trying to situate themselves for that time. then there's the short-game. in 15 days what happens on election day? and republicans can read polls just as good as anyone and what pollsters and republicans are seeing is that it is not looking good for these republicans not only at the top of the ticket with the president but also senate republicans as well. and so you're seeing these signs of fissures of cracks throughout the party where republicans are

looking out for themselves over the president for the time being. we heard in a debate recently with senator thom tillis of north carolina, he said that it's important to elect him to be a check on the president. and what he's em plying was perhaps a democratic president. so what these senate republicans are doing there, they are reluctant to tie themselves to what could be a sinking shape. >> even mitch mcconnell, he's always -- tends to speak in the subtlest of terms politically and the hints and signals rather than what he says outright. talk to us about where things are related to the senate majority leader. >> yes. mitch mcconnell is very good at reading politics, at translating those politics to a senate strategy. you've seen him break with the president in recent months whether it's wearing masks,

whether it's supporting foidr. anthony fauci and now with the co-vid relief legislation, whether mnuchin and pelosi are negotiating a bill, he's going to put on the floor a $500 billion piece of legislation because he thinks that is going to be what is best for his vulnerable senate republicans come november, not what the administration and pelosi are doing. he can read the writing on the wall very well, and he understands that these senate republicans have a choice to make. and they're in very difficult decisions. they're often running a few points behind the president in their states. they have also shed a lot of moderate suburban voters just as the president. mcconnell right now is trying to do whatever he can to give his senate republicans a bit of a boost two weeks to election day. >> lee ann live for us on the hill.

thank you very much for that. still ahead, new reporting on the white house coronavirus task force. why one paper is calling it the den of dissent. and in a rather revealing new interview, dr. anthony fauci shares his initial reaction to the supreme court event at the white house and president trump's own diagnosis. >> were you surprised president trump got sick? >> absolutely not. when i saw that on tv, i said oh, my goodness. nothing good can come out of that. an come out of that they look the same. i've been spinning faster recently. i think they're getting bigger. feel them. [ television plays indistinctly ] yeah, they kind of feel bigger. yeah, cool. [ grunts ] sorry. switch to progressive and you can save hundreds -- you know, like the sign says.

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dissent. how the addition of atlas fractured that team and hindered the administration's pandemic response. listen to this. the post is reporting that doctor deborah birx confronted mike pence recently. he heads the task force about her concerns over atlas pushing for him to be removed from the team. atlas has slammed the post's reporting as another story filled with overt lies and distortions to undermine the president. i want to bring in our medical contributor and former health policy adviser from the president obama administration. thank you for being with us. >> thank you. good to be with you. >> the scott atlas report comes as his post is being blocked that suggests masks don't work to stop the spread of coronavirus. something that contradicts all the science around that issue. talk about what it means for somebody on the coronavirus task force to have something they're trying to put out in public blocked because it's

misinformation essentially. >> this is one in a series of events that are classic now with the trump task force putting out kind of misinformation or more candidly, blocking evidence and data suppressing the cdc all the way from the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic. so dr. atlas, with no background in public health. none of the qualifications that any american would look for to handle something as important as this, is not just putting out false tweets. but you have to imagine this is kind of reverberated as dr. birx's frustration indicates throughout all levels of the white house. when you have someone that trusted by the president, it's no wonder that everything coming out of the white house is chaotic. no clear message, and falsehoods that are unfortunately costing americans their lives. >> and to be clear, dr. atlas has cultivated president trump. president trump seems to trust him. part of it the post reports is

because atlas said things reassuring him the pandemic would be nearly over soon, a vaccine could be help, something that experts say it's not magic powder. it's not a magic bullet you snap your fingers and everything is fixed. when you talk about the surge we're seeing, the third wave. even with the attempt to undermine the president, slamming the article, obviously. what does the message need to be coming out of the task force in your view? >> yeah. the task force really needs to have consistent messaging with number one, addressing the fact that cases are going up. 70,000 cases in 24 hours which is just record breaking and not seen since we had the july 4th peak. number one, this is more community spread across the country and as we head into holiday season, messaging around limiting gatherings, and candidly, offering alternatives, ways to get tested. ways to stay safe, and we still have this debate about masks. and ways to have access to

masks. so it becomes routine. that's what policy makers need to do. make this -- this is all hard and we're all fatigued from it. the goal of policy makers in the white house should be to make it as routine as possible to stay safe so americans don't have to think about it and they can think about everything else they need to worry about. the economy, education, their own jobs and security. >> yes. let me ask you about another member of the coronavirus task force, dr. anthony fauci and his interview last night. >> were you surprised president trump got sick? >> absolutely not. i was worried he was going to get sick when i saw him in a completely precarious situation of crowded no separation people and almost nobody wearing a mask. when i saw that on tv, i said oh, my goodness. nothing good can come out of

that. that's got to be a problem. sure enough, it turned out to be a super spreader event. >> that is a pretty candid assessment from dr. fauci. >> yeah. hallie, this is just -- dr. fauci i think has been stretched to his limits. he's frustrated. it's visible based on his comments. i think all you're seeing is that the few people that remain inside of the task force with any trust, although it's clear the president isn't listening to them, the few people like dr. fauci that remain feel like it's their public responsibility to just lay out the facts and the evidence. i think it also indicates i've worked now with several presidents, republican and democrat, this is very candidly unprecedented, because most people all presidents want their closest advisers to show them the facts, the evidence, to push back when it's possible as "the washington post" reported. dr. fauci is resorting to doing interviews.

clearly it's not being listened to internally. i've never seen that, not through about four administrations where you have high crises like this. this is -- there are a lot of things about this that are disturbing and the american public are paying the price. >> doctor, before i let you go, quickly "the new york times" is reporting new numbers from school reopenings in that city out of some 10,000 plus tests, only five students and a number of staff members tested positive. are you looking at this feeling hopeful as a parent? >> yes. yes, it's hopeful. it shows us with the proper protocols in place and monitoring that we can have our children return to education, but again, new york should be applauded for the protocols put in place. that has to be kept in mind. >> doctor, it's great to have you and your medical expertise on the show. thank you for being with us. turning back to politics after the break. democrats despite the

fundraising advantage and the lead in key battle ground states are not getting too comfortable. worried about deja vu from 2016. new reporting on what makes this election different than the lost.

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more breaking news for you this morning. the supreme court in the last few minutes has agreed to look at whether the trump administration was legally allowed to use pentagon money to

build parts of the border wall the president wanted. that news is coming into us just as the president is getting ready for his first campaign stop of the day in battleground arizona. my colleague ali velshi is there, talking to voters who are very divided on immigration, with some holding out hope for the promised wall with mexico. watch. >> we're a nation of the rule of law, and it's against our laws for people just to decide to come into the united states. >> it's a presentation of hate. this wall is our representation of everything that divides us. i -- i don't think about the immigration issue. i feel the immigration issue. >> with just about two weeks to go now until the election, joe biden is holding on to his lead in the polls and the money race, but after president trump's upset victory back in 2016, some

democrats are still pretty terrified of an election rerun four years later. nbc is looking at what's the same and what's not from 2016. alex, talk to us about the kinds of parallels that you are and are not seeing. >> yeah, hallie, well, there's some eerie parallels. our most recent poll had joe biden up 11 points over donald trump. that is the identical margin hillary clinton had in the same poll in 2016. but i'd rather have joe biden's 11-point lead than hillary clinton's. it's been more stable and robust for months. his voters are more committed to him. most importantly, there's not as many undecided voters out there, who broke heavily for trump last time. it's harder to see where a big, unexpected surge of voters would come from for trump at this point. on the polls themselves, a lot of people are not trusting them or spectacle of them, understandably after 2016. pollsters say they've learned a lot. they're calling more people with

cell phones and without college educations. we have more state-level polls, which is critical. the national polls were not too far off. the state polls were the big issue. we're talking about the electoral college, of course, so it's a state by state race that really matters. >> this new piece talks about polling as one of the six things you're looking at that show why 2020 is not 2016, right? it's the polling. it's the opponent, the person. it's the messaging, for example. it's the map. let's talk about the map. president trump often credits his 2016 win to, you know, being able to be out in the battleground states. how is joe biden, do you think, combating that, if he can? >> it's a big difference from 2016. trump is running a traditional get out the vote effort, going door to door. biden wasn't doing it recently because of the coronavirus pandemic. a few things on the map shifted in democrats' favor. one thing, they're paying attention to states like wisconsin and michigan that were battlegrounds in 2016 but they largely ignored.

new states have come online, like arizona. the big suburban shift away from trump, which was huge in 2018 for democrats, it's put a state like arizona in play. he has more options of how to get to 270. trump has to thread the needle. >> there was an interesting look at third parties and how maybe they're not playing into the election as they might have in 2016. >> right. it was a high water mark for third parties in 2016. skein a stein and johnson were high profile. i'm sure a lot of people haven't heard of jorgensen and hawkins, the libertarian candidates now. republicans are united behind trump. democrats are more united behind biden. you're splitting the pie closer to two ways instead of three. >> alex, thank you so much for being with us. folks should definitely go to nbcnews.com to check out your great piece. appreciate you joining us. i appreciate you all watching this hour of msnbc live on this monday morning. i'll see you here tomorrow.

after the break, much more with craig melvin. r the break, much craig melvin diabetes, and asthma. this administration and senate republicans want to overturn laws requiring insurance companies to cover people with pre-existing conditions. they're rushing a lifetime appointment to the supreme court to change the law through the courts. 70% of americans want to keep protections for pre-existing conditions in place. tell our leaders in washingtn to stop playing games with our healthcare.

who's sujoe biden.rop 15? biden says, "every kid deserves a quality education and every family deserves to live in a safe, healthy community. that's why i support prop. 15." vote yes. schools and communities first is responsible for the contents of this ad. uber and lyft are like every big guy i've ever brought down. prop 22 doesn't "help" their drivers-- it denies them benefits. 22 doesn't help women. it actually weakens sexual harassment laws, which are meant to protect them. uber and lyft aren't even required to investigate sexual harassment claims. i agree with the la times: no on 22. uber and lyft want all the power. so, show them the real power is you. vote no on prop 22. is you. who's supkamala harris.5? harris says, "a corporate tax loophole has allowed billions to be drained from our public schools and local communities. no more. i'm proud to support prop 15." vote yes. schools and communities first is responsible for the content of this ad.

good monday morning to you c and craig melvin here. 15 days out from the traditional election day. we have eye-popping numbers that have major implications for this race. 8 million, that's the number of coronavirus cases in our country.