fact is we sometimes look at it and say it feels as if this turned around overnight. it didn't. it was the product of years of relationship building of the kind he wants to do in washington with people as broad a spectrum as bernie sanders and amy klobuchar who, when the moment came, they coalesced around him because they had, in years of experience of seeing what he was and how he operated, and it paid off. >> all right. the new book is "joe biden: the life, the run and what matters now." evan osnos, thank you so much. that does it for us this morning. stephanie ruhle picks up the coverage right now. hi there. i'm stephanie ruhle. it's tuesday, october 27th. let's get smarter. we are just one week away from election day, and it is on. today, president trump hits three states starting in michigan, then heading to wisconsin and nebraska. the first two he won narrowly last time, but now he trails in the polls. in the state of nebraska, he is fighting for one single

electoral vote in the 2nd district. tomorrow he's heading to arizona, a trump state in 2016, now leaning towards former vp biden. the former vp is on offense, campaigning in georgia, a state that has not voted for a democrat in almost 30 years. this year, the polls there are neck and neck. georgia is one of many states that has already seen record turnout in early voting. the secretary of state there warning there will be long lines all week long. we're seeing the same story in maryland where people are lining up at 4:00 in the morning. and in new york where we are, lines are still stretched for hours, even on day three of early voting. in all, 62 million americans have already cast their ballots. roughly 45% of the total we saw back in 2016. the president hits the trail from washington where he hosted a swearing in ceremony for amy coney barrett last evening. not only could that give him a boost in the polls but it also means barrett will be on the

supreme court just in time to rule on any challenges that may come out of next week's election. i want to bring in nbc's shannon pettypiece in lansing, michigan, where the president is headed. michael memoli following the biden campaign in western georgia and jeff mason, white house correspondent for reuters. he'll be getting on the road with the president's campaign right after our show. shannon, let's start with president trump's strategy. why these states, and why with just one week to go, take himself all the way to nebraska for one single electoral vote? >> right. well, why michigan, this heavy emphasis on the rust belt states. it gets him to this electoral college math. if the president holds on to everything he held in 2016, he wins florida, he wins arizona, he wins north carolina, he cannot lose all three of these states. michigan, wisconsin and pennsylvania. he has to win one of those. and he's trailing rather significantly in nearly every poll in these states.

and it also gets this electoral map where you asked about nebraska. why travel to nebraska on sunday for one electoral college vote. well, that is a district that includes omaha. it's leaning towards biden right now. it's a point that trump won in 2016. and again, there are scenarios at play here where things could get so close that this election could be determined by a single electoral college vote. for example if the president holds everything else from 2016, but loses michigan, wisconsin, arizona and that one nebraska congressional district, joe biden would win by one point. but one other thing i want to note here, i'm in michigan and obviously the coronavirus is such an issue. the hospitals are starting to get at capacity in some parts of the state here. they're seeing the highest level since may. and that's definitely a factor that's buried down the president but there's also still the economy. in a place like michigan that suffered through a brutal recession a few years ago, that

fear of losing your job and losing your home is still very real. as far as strategy, you'll see much more emphasis from the president on the economy in places like this than the coronavirus, despite these huge case numbers we're seeing right now. >> yes, but it's going to be difficult for the president to argue that the economy is back in a big way while we know mitch mcconnell is not going to hold a vote on the next stimulus package. jeff, you were there last night for judge barrett's swearing in ceremony. where does she fit into the president's final pitch? does she help him get votes? does she help biden get votes, or is it having her on the bench if the supreme court needs to rule about issues around this election in the coming weeks? >> steph, i think it's a little of all of the above. the president will certainly mention it today. i'm sure, because he's very proud of the fact he has helped recast the judiciary in many ways over the last four years with the crowning achievement being now three supreme court justices. i think former vice president biden will also mention it as a motivating factor to get out his

base. and the president wanted that to happen, to point to what you were just saying, to have a full supreme court in place in case there are challenges or legal issues with the election next week. so all of the above, i do think it's unusual or surprising, though in some ways, steph, that it hasn't been a bigger issue over the last few weeks. as we all recall, when justice ruth bader ginsburg passed away, it seemed it was rewriting the presidential race. then, of course, president trump came down with the coronavirus and the coronavirus became the key theme in the race again. and that is not going to go away in this final week. >> michael, let's talk about vp biden. what should we make of the fact he's spending a whole entire day in georgia. this is a state that's been solid red since the early '90s. >> yeah, steph. at this time yesterday, you and i were talking about biden's campaign schedule or really the lack thereof. since then we've gotten some of the gaps filled in about what we should expect to see from him in this final week.

thursday, he'll be in florida. on friday, he'll make two stops in wisconsin and in iowa. and then on saturday, he'll be in michigan. of course, today, he is in georgia. this is one of the 17 states that the campaign identified in may as on their target list. one of the three that was reliably republican. and the biden campaign says it's a sign of the real strength of his candidacy at this point heading into the final week that he's competing still in all 17 but especially in a state like this which, as you say democrats haven't competed in in a presidential race in a long time. biden will be delivering what his campaign is billing as a major speech. a closing argument-type speech in a place where fdr once came to recover from polio. biden evoking history here, making a comparison in some ways to another historic president as he did talking about lincoln in gettysburg a few weeks ago. with fdr, talking about a president with multiple crises. making an argument the country

can unite. and that's what we should expect to hear more of both in his speech today but especially as he closes this campaign, steph. >> jeff, the president tweeted yesterday, tried to tweet, you can't even retweet it at this point, that we need to have a final total on election night. we all know that is not going to happen. and we know that his supporters are going to be out on election day. so there's a good chance he'll do very well on election day. is the president just setting the stage to not accept the total election results? >> -- over the last week, several weeks and months trying to undermine the eventual results of the election if he doesn't win. he'd really like to know on november 3rd. it's not just about knowing. it's about raising question marks about mail-in ballots and voting early, which is also ironic because he ended up voting early and has encouraged his supporters to get out and vote early as well.

but it's broadly, i think, to your question, steph, setting up some question marks about if the result does not go his way, whether or not he will accept the election. he's given different answers to that question when he's been asked. he said we'll see. he's also said he would accept it. so we will see on november 3rd. but we may not know the answer if it's very close in certain states. >> let's discuss making sure every vote counts. i want to take you to the battleground state of wisconsin. democrats there had been trying to extend the deadline for counting mail-in ballots. late yesterday the supreme court said they had to be received no later than election night. for that to happen, the state's election commission says you need to send it by today. nbc's shaquille brewster is in milwaukee. shaq, what's going on? >> well, stephanie, democrats were essentially in court asking for the same relief they got back in april. it was during that primary where a district court judge said that any ballot postmarked by

election day but received six days after the election could legally be counted. well, that same judge tried to provide the relief this time around, but an appeals court reversed that decision and then the supreme court finally weighed in yesterday. that ruling saved about 79,000 ballots back in april. what does that mean this time around? what we know from the wisconsin elections commission is that 1.7 million absentee ballots have been requested. there are about 300 of these kind of -- 300,000 of these ballots that have not been returned to clerks yet. what that means is, if you have a ballot right now and you plan on mailing it back, today is the last day you should send that back. they are calling it the practical deadline. today is the last day to put it in the mail. otherwise you should return it in person or send it to a drop box. what we're seeing in the state of wisconsin is the democratic party is now pouring money into these new digital ads. take a look at them on your screen. this is first provided to nbc news. these are ads that are going on

twitter, on facebook, other digital platforms encouraging voters and pressing voters. if you have that mail-in ballot, if you are one of those 300,000 people that have not returned your mail-in ballot, today is the final day to do so. otherwise, again, they are pushing people to go to a drop box or return it in person. stephanie? >> shaq, thank you so much. we've got breaking news to share overnight. protests turn violent in the streets of west philadelphia last night. the local nbc station is reporting more than 30 people were arrested and several officers were sent to the hospital after they were hit by bricks and a 56-year-old female officer was struck by a pickup truck. the protoasts erupted after a 27-year-old walter wallace was shot and killed by police who say he ignored commands to drop a knife while working towards them. that's when they fired. the shooting is now under investigation. nbc news cannot verify what occurred before or after events shown in the video. we'll have more details as they unfold. coming up next -- cities and states are adding new

restrictions, but the coronavirus is surging across this nation. we're going to take you to one of the hardest hit regions. plus, the trump campaign is out with new ads touting record gdp growth before the number is officially even released. what exactly are they jumping the gun, and why the real number, the real economy, won't tell the whole story. ♪ [ engines revving ] ♪ it's amazing to see them in the wild like th-- shhh. [ engine revs ] for those who were born to ride, there's progressive. this was the theater i came to quite often. the support we've had over the last few months

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now to the latest on the coronavirus pandemic. these are the facts we know at this hour. the united states recorded more than 68,000 cases in the last 24 hours. and 485 covid-related deaths. with alarming trends continuing along this country, cases are rising in a total of 44 states while covid related deaths are up in 31 states. and if you thought it's just because there's more testing, guess what. it's not. hospitalizations across the country are up 40% in the last month. the concerning trend has states on high alert with some even

imposing new restrictions. in el paso, texas, where hospitals are at 100% capacity, there is a new two-week stay-at-home in order place. and a 10:00 p.m. curfew. in newark, new jersey, where the positivity rate is above 25%, nonessential businesses must close by 8:00 p.m. starting today. the midwest is seeing the worst of it. and that's where gabe gutierrez is standing by this morning in indianapolis. what's going on where you are? >> hey there stephanie. i'm having a bit of a hard time hearing you, but i can tell you the situation here on the ground in minnesota, the governor here is warning that this state is reaching a critical point. hospitalizations are up 70% over the last month and throughout the midwest as you mentioned, stephanie, things are increasing significantly. yesterday we were in the dakotas. and the dakotas actually lead the nation per capita in cases right now. now here in minnesota, we have

been hearing from hospitals, including this one and say they are trying to make -- trying to make plans for the coming winter months as, you know, the winter and colder temperatures drive people indoors where the virus spreads more easily. now here in minnesota, they've also noticed that over the last few months, community spread has been increasing. for example, in weddings. about 70 wedding-related outbreaks have been reported. and local public officials here are urging people to try and limit that community spread. but, stephanie, as you mentioned, these increased cases here in the midwest and across the country are fueling those concerns on wall street. the dow dropping 650 points yesterday. not just amid the concern about the rise in cases but also that stalled stimulus package. but here, in the upper midwest, they are preparing for a dangerous few months ahead, stephanie. >> gabe, thank you. joining us now, dr. nahid

bhadelia, medical director of the special pathogens unit at boston medical center. dr. bhadelia, what do you make of the trends we're seeing right now? what's most concerning? >> stephanie, i think there is the pandemic fatigue that others have talked about. you know, and also this confusion about what are united actions should be. the masking, the physical distancing, reducing the crowd size. there's also a potential there's an element of seasonality of this virus. the things that protect us, maybe gave us a slight advantage over this summer. the number of hours of uv light we had or the fact it was more humid. less humidity, dry weather. less light tends to make this virus be able to transmit a lot more as we move indoors. that's one part of it. but the thing that concerns me is that we have 50 different outbreaks going on. every state is sort of battling this on their own. but -- and even in situations where there's similar conditions. they have different approaches. south dakota has the highest per

capita cases in the world, and they have no mask mandate. and here in massachusetts, schools are closing and -- which is the decision that local governments are making, and yet the state government has kept the restaurants and the bars open. and so it's really this lack of uniformity and lack of guidance from the federal level of what this -- the approach should be in this situation. >> we're seeing some states and cities impose new restrictions to the point you just made. but they're doing it only after we're seeing the positivity rates spike or hospitals are at capacity. does that not seem reactive rather than proactive to you? >> absolutely. i think that there should be, at this point, after having seen the peaks in the northeast and in the south. we know by the time you wait for hospitalizations and deaths which are both up, over 40 states are reporting hospitalizations increases, over 20 states reporting increases in deaths. it's too late. because then the train is already on the track to

potentially lead to overwhelmed health care systems. it's really the cases and potentially the test positivity that should guide us. that's another point where states completely vary. and how they are approaching this. states -- some states are taking a more proactive action and others are not. they are waiting until they get to a point where utah is, for example, where they are currently having to take on things like crisis standard of care, which is when they are triaging because there aren't enough icu beds or hospital beds in some areas of their state. >> can you help us understand this? the president moments ago was tweeting about three big rallies he's hosting today, but he also tweeted, until november 4th, fake news media is going full on covid. covid, covid. we're rounding the turn. 99.9%. we're rounding what turn? >> i'm -- i'm sure this is not what he means, but the turn that we're rounding is potentially going in for the worst months that we've had in the pandemic

because of this seasonality, the lack of people keeping their guard up. we're actually approaching the worst months of this pandemic and honestly, the thing that broke my heart about that tweet is, stephanie, november 5th, november 6th, november 7th, americans are still going to be dying of this disease because we haven't been, as you said, as proactive as we should be. that doesn't change immediately. and it's going to take hard work from all of us because the vaccines are nowhere near available to the general public. and health systems are already getting overwhelmed in some parts of the country. >> one of the reasons we're fatigued is because we're confused by the guidance. researchers in el paso, which is seeing a surge right now, they analyzed their cases for two weeks. and they found that 37% were from visiting big box stores and 22% were from going to restaurants. does that surprise you in any way? i mean, the fact that restaurants, those are just small gatherings. >> it does. and the cdc is has also passed

research they've found that the new increases in cases are also found from small family gatherings. it really seems like the setting of colder weather, with groups of people, is leading to a lot more cases than we'd expect. you don't need big rallies which, of course, are huge strains and potential risks to increased number of cases. it's really these small gatherings, and that means a lot as we consider the holidays and people getting together for the holidays. and i really urge families to reconsider whether that's needed this year and to protect those that are vulnerable amongst their ranks. >> dr. bhadelia, we appreciate you sharing your expertise. i want to take you to italy. one of the countries that's fared the worst in the first wave of the virus. now it's seeing a resurgence. bill neely in milan. what's going on there? >> yeah, hi, steph. listening to gabe gutierrez describe what's going on in minnesota, it sounded very

familiar because it's record numbers of cases here in italy, too. averaging about 20,000 new cases a day. at the start of the month, it was 2,000. so a tenfold increase. and in the spring, the first wave was concentrated really around milan, northern italy. now it's all over italy. and there is evidence that the health system is buckling. hospitals beginning to be overwhelmed. and i spent some time in a tiny town of bergamo, not far from here. they had 6,000 deaths in just over a month in the spring. so people there are pretty terrified about what a second wave would mean. and there have been protests overnight at the tough new measures introduced by the government. in the industrial city of charin last night, there were people on the streets, riot police firing tear gas because the government has introduced measures that mean bars and restaurants will have tho close at 6:00. that will affect hundreds of thousands of businesses.

gyms and cinemas closed, sporting events virtually all called off. some people are buckling under these restrictions. but the government is giving itself three weeks to see if this works. if it doesn't work, stephanie, i think they will move towards a total lockdown and that will be a real shock for people here. >> how do people there and across europe view the way the united states is or is not trying to get a handle on corona eight months in? >> well, that's a great question, stephanie. and i have to say, in all honesty, people look on what's happening in the united states with complete horror. this is the richest, most developed country in the world with, at the very top end, one of the best health care systems in the world. and look at what is happening. it was really interesting, stephanie. in the summer, there was an opinion poll of people across europe. and the question was, has your opinion of the united states worsened as a result of its

handling of coronavirus? in almost every case, the reputation of the united states has suffered because everywhere, italy, germany, britain, france, people said that their opinion of the united states, not just of donald trump, but their opinion of the united states and its place in the world and what it can do has worsened as a result of its handling of covid-19. so you know, this isn't just a health crisis or economic crisis for all of us, but it's a reputational crisis for the united states as well. >> bill, thank you so much. stay safe where you are. coming up next -- get out your broken record player because i'm going to say it again. there is no economic recovery without a covid recovery. but that is not the message from president trump. why an expected large gdp number does not mean everything is better. but first, look at your calendar. today, today marks two years since the shooting at the tree of life synagogue in pittsburgh,

pennsylvania. it claimed 11 lives and rocked the close-knit squirrel hill community. at 9:54 a.m. around the time the shooting took place, there will be a moment of silence across the city of pittsburgh. tonight, members of the community will gather virtually for a ceremony to honor and remember the victims of that terrible tragic attack. izes your car insurance so you only pay for what you need? just get a quote at libertymutual.com. really? i'll check that out. oh yeah. i think i might get a quote. not again! aah, come on rice. do your thing. only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪

i want to go now to wall street where markets are seconds

away from opening after the dow dropped more than 600 points yesterday. wall street's worst day since september. it was fueled by the rising number of coronavirus cases and no hopes for a stimulus deal after majority leader mitch mcconnell adjourned the senate after the election. but the economy is expected to get some good news this week when the gdp report comes out on thursday. and president trump is already hailing it as a major win and a sign we're bouncing back quickly. let's do a reality check. joining us, mark zandy. mark, the economy is the one thing that is keeping this presidential race alive. we're going to get a strong gdp report, and we already know the president's narrative. i built a great economy, and it is back. why is that message misleading? >> well, it's coming back, stephanie. i mean, we're digging out of the hole that we fell into early on in the pandemic. but we still have a long way to go. even with that big gdp number for q3, we're still going to be

only two-thirds of the way back from where we were pre-pandemic. of course, what matters to most people are jobs. and in terms of jobs, we're only about halfway back to what we lost during the start of the pandemic. so we're making our way back. that's great news. but we've got a long way to go. and the other concern, as you point out, is the economy is now feeling very soft because the pandemic is intensifying. doesn't look like congress and the administration are going to get together and pass another fiscal rescue package any time soon. and that means in the next few months the prospects for the economy actually backtracking are pretty high. >> the president and his team is wasting no time with this message. three days before the gdp report is even out, they are peppering facebook with ads saying the u.s. economy just had the fastest three months of growing ever. that is true, but to your point, we're coming out of a very deep hole. and doesn't it ignore the fact that this economic recovery is a hostage to the actual covid

recovery? and until we get a handle on covid, ain't nothing going to happen in a significant way on the economy. >> yeah, totally agree. i mean, i just don't see how the economy can kick into any kind of gear as long as the pandemic is on. as long as it's rising. and certainly not while it's getting worse. and you don't need to shut down businesses for the economy to struggle. people are going to be nervous. businesses are going to be nervous. businesses are going to pull back. people just aren't going to go out and do what they typically do until they feel safe. and, obviously, with infections rising, no one is going to feel safe. so, you know, the economy just can't get back -- can't get out of that hole that we've been talking about until the pandemic is contained. >> one of the reasons we will see a strong gdp number is stimulus. when people got those stimulus checks, they were out there spending. the fact that we are going months and months without another check and the fact that mitch mcconnell just said we're headed home, we're not going to be voting on anything before this election, what could that

do to the current economy? >> wonderful point. i mean, the economy has gotten significant tail wind from the rescue packages that were put in place early on in the pandemic. the c.a.r.e.s. act. $3.5 trillion, 12% of gdp. the problem is that money is now all gone. the extra unemployment insurance benefits that expired back in july. the paycheck protection money for small businesses, that's all gone. of course, the airlines have run out of cash. so the economy needs more support to continue to navigate through to get to the other side of the pandemic. if that support doesn't come, and at the moment it doesn't look like it's coming any time soon, the economy is going to start to struggle significantly. we'll see a lot of those folks unemployed, underemployed, have pay cuts have no option but to start pulling back on their spending. that's key to economic growth. so i do think the economy is going to start struggling here as we make our way to the end of

the year, early next and until we get some sort of fiscal support from the -- at this point, it looks like the next president. >> but at the same time, isn't it difficult to paint one single picture of this economy? because it is true. while an enormous amount of people in this country and businesses are struggling, there's also a portion of the country that is doing really well. if you are somebody who can work from home if you are invested in the stock market, if you have the money to buy a house and can take advantage of these very low interest rates and given that you can't really go anywhere during covid, our savings have gone up. so it's not entirely incorrect to say that, for some, the economy is very strong. >> yeah, it's another excellent point. depends on which part of the economic elephant you're touching. for lower income, low, middle income households, minority groups, this is devastating financially. they came into the pandemic with little, if any savings and, of course, they are the ones suffering the unemployment, the

underemployment,y y ithe pay c. and they don't own any stock. only the top 20% own stock of any consequence in many cases, they don't own a home. so they're not benefitting from all the things going on in the stock market and the rising housing values. whereas, as you point out, high income households, folks like you and i who can work from home and have good health care and own stocks and own our own home, we're benefitting from this. so, you can get two very different pictures of how the economy is performing depending on which part of that elephant you're touching. at the end of the day, this economy can't go anywhere fast. such a large segment of the population is struggling to the degree that it is. >> we can't go anywhere until we get a handle on this virus. mark, always good to see you. thank you for joining us. coming up next, we'll take you to ohio. you know chris jansing is there. where president trump is gaining support among young black voters. but first, wind is driving massive wildfires in southern

california. what is called the blue ridge fire has spread to two counties and is threatening homes in orange koupcounty. at least 6600 acres have already burned. another fire, the silverado fir fire, has forced 90,000 to evacuate. and tropical storm zeta is barreling toward the united states overnight. it battered talum, mexico with 80-mile-per-hour winds. it has it making landfall in southeast louisiana. not again. tomorrow night as a category 1 storm. the new orleans metro area is bracing for tropical storm force winds, heavy rain and coastal flooding. parts of louisiana are still recovering from hurricanes laura and delta that took place in the last two months. last night's sleep, interrupted by pain?

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