tv MSNBC Prime MSNBC June 8, 2022 1:00am-2:00am PDT
♪♪ hello, everyone. welcome back. we're back with more special coverage of today's primary elections. the polls are closed in the seven states that held elections. here are some of the primary races we are following closely at this hour. in california, we're awaiting a call in the mayoral race in los
angeles. congresswoman karen bass running against rick caruso. a life time republican businessman turned democrat. in a special recall election in san francisco, bodine lost his job as the district attorney of that city earlier this evening. in south dakota, nbc news projects that incumbent republican governor christie gnome won. in iowa, senate race michael franken -- excuse me, different screen i believe from what we're seeing. defeated former congresswoman abby. franken will now look to unseat chuck grassley come november. in montana, ryan zinke is leading in the campaign for congress. a close race we're watching. steve kornacki is at the big board to break it all down. steve, what do you got? >> it's a waiting game in los angeles. we have been showing you these
numbers for a while here. rick caruso leading karen bass. certainly seems like these two are headed towards a runoff if nobody gets 50% tonight the top two finishers face off in november. settle things then. what we're waiting on is we want to see the votes that were cast today by people in person. there's a lot of them, election day vote. we just want to make sure there's not a huge disparity where the election day vote swung one way, totally different than what you're looking at right now which is basically the mail-in vote that's basically what's been counted up so far. if not, you're looking at a caruso and bass runoff to be settled in november. obviously be interesting to see how these final numbers land here. there's one end up going into that runoff with an apparent advantage over the other. that will be one factor there. but this is outstanding piece of business to be settled here. the l.a. mayor's race, you mentioned the recall, the
margin, more than 20 points in san francisco. also a number of competitive congressional races. they do congressional differently in california. they're all on one primary ballot and the top two finishers in every direct run against each other in november. let me show you where there's a little drama and suspense. here in the central valley of california, the 22nd district, the incumbent republican david valadao, the number two spot right now, that would give him a ticket to the general election to face the democrat rudy salas we are projecting is going to make it to the general election. but the drama is this, valadao voted for the impeachment of donald trump following january 6th. take a look here, there are actually three republicans on the ballot in this open primary.
what we're waiting on is that election day vote. that election day vote in republican primaries around the country has tended to favor the more trump-friendly candidates. about nine points ahead of chris mattis, we want to see what that same-day vote looks like. does mattes threaten to pass valadao for second place. valadao would be out of a job tonight. he wouldn't make the general election. couple other congressional races we can tell you about, one here is in the 40th district here. now you're getting down orange county. this is young kim, freshman republican congresswoman, one of the first korean american women elected to congress, national republicans badly want to keep her there. her challenge here again you've got a democrat mahmood will
advance to the general election. kim running in second. she is double digits ahead of her nearest general republican who tried to get to her right, tried to align himself with the pro-trump right against young kim. we have not yet projected that kim will advance to the general election. she is leading right now. we do want to see more of the same-day vote to make sure there's not a big shift. national republicans badly want kim to hold on to second place here and advance. another congressional primary to tell you about is in a different state, it's in montana. the new first district of montana. i actually want to show you the republican primary here. montana because it's a growing population gained a congressional district. here it is the new first district. ryan zinke, interior secretary under donald trump, he is in a fight right now with alszewski. we have seen zinke's lead expand slightly. he had ethical baggage as days
as interior secretary under trump. olszewski tried to exploit that. still votes to come in montana. there was also and continues to be some drama in mississippi. this is the third congressional district of mississippi. here is the incumbent congressman republican michael guest. he's running in second place right now. his challenger michael cassidy leads him by about a point, about 85% of the vote is counted up here. now mississippi is a runoff state. if nobody in this race gets to 50%, they go to a runoff on june 28th. why is guest in trouble tonight? biggest reason he voted for the creation of that bipartisan january 6th commission become an issue in this campaign. he is running from behind right now. realistically if you guess the best scenario right now see what's left in the district is you keep cassidy under 50 and try to go to a runoff and try to win it there. but guest is certainly in
trouble. not as much trouble i should say potentially as steven pilazzo has been in congress for 12 years. all sorts of ethical controversy around pilazzo. he's going to a runoff. he's in first place. a 12-year incumbent, 31.6% of the vote. he'll face a runoff. second place, the sheriff of jackson county in mississippi, that's a troubling place to be. there's another incumbent could be in trouble there. again the headline out of california is that recall of boudine natch is complete. what we're waiting on are congressional districts. as i said, we continue to check the mayoral vote in los angeles that has not changed since the start of this segment when i first showed you these numbers. we want to see some of the votes that were cast today just make sure there's not a huge
difference there that would change these numbers dramatically. if there's not, then you are looking at it. rick caruso versus karen bass, one on one matchup for mayor of the country's second largest city to be settled in november. >> so let me ask you about that real quick given the way this is set up as an open primary, looking ahead at november, if those positions stay as they are, what is the race going to come down to for -- in terms of the numbers of the remaining votes between karen bass and caruso. caruso former republican turned democrat to run at this point in the race, but come november, are we expecting a larger turnout than what we traditionally see and that could be a potential factor? >> yeah. it's interesting because it's officially a nonpartisan election but caruso has a past as a republican, as an independent. i think only this january registered as a democrat. certainly the bass campaign, other components and critics of caruso really tried to play that up given how democratic los angeles is. so certainly if he were to come
out of tonight in first place, that would be by itself a significant achievement again just given the political tilt of the city. what bass, if it is bass who opposes him in november would hope for, is that there is a stronger, general election midterm election turnout for democratic voters that could potentially carry her. the problem i think she may face if she's counting on that is look at the top of the ballot in california. governor's race doesn't look that competitive. the senate race doesn't look like you have any races statewide in california that are going to draw extra large turnout in los angeles or anywhere else. the races don't look that compelling. so it's really going to be up to bass to make the case against caruso. it's interesting we talk about the recall of boudine in san francisco, the emesis on crime and quality of life and public safety, all issues that caruso cement a fortune on television
advertising. all issues he stressed here in los angeles trying to defy the baggage that would come with the label of former republican. worth noting, it's not that long ago. you go back to the 1990s, there was a 63-year-old multimillionaire republican who ran on the issues of crime, homelessness and quality of life in los angeles and did get himself elected mayor that was 1993, name was richard rearidan. he served two term. caruso trying to follow that same model a couple decades later. >> thank you very much, steve. we'll check back in later on in the program. with the first public hearing of the january 6th committee on thursday, will democrats try to capitalize on that issue with voters? in a piece looking at that exact issue, "the new york times" says it is an uphill battle at a time when polls show that voter' attention is focussed elsewhere, including on inflation, rising coronavirus cases and record-high gas prices. but democrats argue the hearings
will give them a platform for making a broader case about why they deserve to stay in power. we are joined now by our expert panel, melanie mason, national political correspondent for the los angeles times, christina, covered politics for years at "the la times" as well, she's now professor of journalism and director of the media center at the university of california. david jolly, former republican congressman from florida, he left the republican party in 2018 and is now the national chairman of the serve america movement and jonathan alter for the daily beast. great to have all of you with us. melanie, let me start with you and get your read of what we're seeing play out tonight in california between the reporting you have at "the la times" and what steve kornacki was just breaking down for us at the big board here. >> absolutely. i think first of all steve is right that the big headline so far is what we have seen out of san francisco with the d.a. recall race. i don't think that any of us
expected that race to be called so quickly. and so i think a lot of the commentary that will be coming in the next couple days is what kind of message is san francisco trying to show? san francisco, of course, has always had sort of a left and leftier divide in the city. so it's not that the city is necessarily turning towards republicans. but i do think there's a fair question about what the future of democrats will be when it comes to this question about criminal justice. >> christina, your thoughts as well on california this evening. anything surprising you? >> yeah. well, one thing i want to go back to something steve kornacki was talking about with david valadao, that race is fascinating because valadao is the only congressional republican who voted to impeach donald trump who trump has not endorsed a challenger. so imagine if trump had gotten involved in that race how those numbers might have looked a little different. the assembly member salas has run in that exact same area
many, many times and same turf. democrats are seeing some signs of hope when they're facing a really difficult year this november. that's one of the things that stands out. also to me, this is the first time the l.a. mayor's race shifted to an even year the same year we have statewide races and congressional midterm elections or presidential election in the fuchl. so, that's going to make a big difference when it comes to turnout this november. and this mayor's race is really going to set the direction for what the second largest city in america is going to look like. >> yeah. that's exactly why i was asking steve about that in terms of the turnout come november and that could be a factor between caruso and bass if those numbers hold for the rest of this morning. christina, let me shift to the question that i was framing this conversation around, that is january the 6th and this hearing taking place. do you think this is something that could resonate with some independent voters? do you still think that people as they go into the polls this november will still be thinking about what transpired two years
ago in the attempt to overthrow our democracy? and who is responsible for that? >> what i wonder when i think about this question is if it will influence anyone? are people out there with undecided opinions on what happened on january 6th? the people that i've talked to both in my reporting but also just in life really feel pretty hardened about this. and particularly if people aren't tuning into n to watch what democrats hope will be this extremely persuasive argument using dramatic footage and showing some never before seen imagery of that awful, awful day is that going to change any minds and influence people when the number one thing everybody says they're concerned about is can they afford groceries? how much they're paying at the pump? those are realities the democrats are really facing an uphill battle on this year. i don't know that january 6th is going to change that sentiment. it also could further inflame and erode and divide people on an issue that really everybody should be on the same page
about. this shouldn't have happened at the u.s. capitol. >> david, let me get your thoughts on this and there's two layers to it for me, at least, personally speaking. on one, this was a threat to our democracy and i think two years into it people are hardened in their positions. you either see it that way or you're a republican who thinks this was just another day in the office for members of congress or it was a protest. you have trump-friendly media like fox news, they're not going to be airing any of the january 6th hearings. so do you think that any of what comes out of this will actually reach republican voters or is it even worth trying to reach? i understand the historical significance of getting the narrative out on this and understanding the details because we're still learning about every minute of what happened on that day and the bigger conspiracy behind it. but are any of these republicans persuadable? >> probably not. but i think it depends on what comes out of the hearings.
and i would suggest in terms of political influence i don't think it will have any impact on 2022. it may on 2024 further isolates donald trump and lays culpability on donald trump's feet. but look, i think we will learn a lot about the actual coordination between the trump political universe, the organizers of the event, trump's knowledge of the likelihood of violence and did he do anything to actually enflame it or to fore stall it. i think those answers will be very telling. but i also think very, very importantly the democrats should not try to -- i think the power is in letting the information come out, letting the story be told. because if you learned the lessons of the benghazi hearings, if a party tries to actually politicize something in this case of january 6th that is a very grave matter where our democracy hung in the balance, you might be trying to do two things at the same time and it might actually get in the way of
truly telling the story, letting the american people realize the gravity of what hung in the balance on january 6th. and let them realize -- people realize that there was a singular actor in donald trump that was responsible for this and should he arrive on the scene again as a nominee for the republican party, then a political judgment can be made in '24 by the american people. >> jonathan alter, speaking of donald trump, what about his influence on the republican primaries and the general election come november, how do you see the january 6th hearings impacting voters on that singular issue? because it seems from most of the republican races that i've been tracking in the primaries so far, nobody is out here running as a never trumper. they're either running as a trump idealog.
or trump camouflage. >> well, i think the first thing you do is focus on a word that david used in a different context a few moments ago that moment was hung. so, we shouldn't be numb, we shouldn't be just taking it for granted that a president of the united states was willing to see his vice president hung. this is what the reporting is indicating to us and we're going to hear this that when he was alerted that they had a noose out on the capitol grounds, his basic response was maybe they should hang mike pence. that's how angry he was at his own vice president. so this is a big deal in the history of our country. and the way it plays out politically is hard to say. but we shouldn't underestimate its more cosmic importance. and i think that we need to kind
of separate the political question into two buckets. so, is this going to change trump voters? of course not. might it affect some independent voters? very possibly. if they tell a good story, it could change the climate among a very large number of independent voters. we just don't know about that yet. but the most important effect is on democratic voters because right now there is a enthusiasm gap. it's actually narrowed a bit in recent weeks. but it favors the republicans right now. if democrats get mad about this and say you know what, i am going to go out and ring doorbells so that these big lie republicans don't get the keys to the car, so that we don't have these people who want to impeach joe biden running our congress. you might be able to motivate democrats to work harder in
november, which would be very important. >> yeah. it's a very valid point as well. may not change hearts and minds, but it certainly can increase the voter turnout. melanie mason, thank you so much for joining us. the rest of our panel, please stick around later in the hour. we'll continue our conversation. up next the january 6th committee will hold its first public hearing thursday night. barbara mcquaid, harry litman will join us to discuss what to expect. that's coming up next. s what to expect that's coming up next.
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so over 1,000 interviews and depositions, 140,000 documents, the january 6th select committee has a mountain of evidence to present to the american people. those are not my words, jamie raskin told "the washington post." and one area we can expect the committee to explore during their public hearings is the fake elector's plot that trump and his allies tried to implement. "the washington post" is reporting today that back in december of 2020 with the january 6th riot just weeks away, the member of the trump campaign wrote an email to the fake trump electors in georgia urging them not to say a word about the plot to anyone. the post reports, i must ask for your complete discretion in this process, writes robert, the campaign's election operations director for georgia, the day before 16 republicans gathered at the georgia capitol to sign certificates declaring themselves duly elected. your duties are imperative to
ensure the end result, a win in georgia for president trump, but will be hampered unless we have complete secrecy and discretion. please, at no point should you mention anything to do with presidential electors or speak to the media. sinners continued in bold. now this new reporting begs the question if trump and his allies weren't doing anything wrong, why shouldn't they say anything about it? why the secrecy. with us again, barbara mcquaid, former attorney for the eastern district of michigan and now co-host of the podcast sisters in law and msnbc legal analyst. harry litman, deputy assistant attorney general under president clinton. he is now legal affairs columnist for the l.a. times. barbara, i would like to start with you. let's dive into this fake elector's plot that trump and his allies tried to implement. seems to have been one of the
major schemes they came up with. what did you think it says that the trump campaign was warning georgia republicans not to talk about the plot? it seemed they were really focussed on the state of georgia when you consider this plot as well as the president's infamous phone call to the georgia secretary of state to try to find him votes. >> yeah. you really hit on i think one of the things that would catch a prosecutor's ear and that is what is sometimes referred to as evidence of consciousness of guilt. that idea when you're trying to be secretive about something or cover something up suggests you have knowledge something is wrong about it that could cause you problems if it were exposed. one defense some of these electors who signed these alternate slates of electors could raise they signed these in good faith on the chance that there was some irregularity in the election and ultimately donald trump was declared the
winner. it would be important to have these slates on record to beat the deadline so they went ahead and signed them. but when you have language about, don't talk about it, don't tell the media, that sounds much more nefarious. we know from other reporting this was part of the big plot that john eastman proposed that mike pence would throw out the electors from states that were the swing states where they said there was fraud and then they would substitute these in. so i think it provides perhaps a lead to connect this level of the alternate slates with somebody higher up who is actually giving those marching orders. >> harry n a statement to the post, robert sinners the trump staffer i was citing there in that email, he says i was advised by attorneys that this was necessary in order to preserve the pending legal challenges. is that a plausible argument? >> good luck to him.
he's always run away from it in substance. i now see it differently. look, as barb says, this is for a prosecutor solid gold. there's some attempt to say we were just -- they didn't know, sign here. but this puts the lie to it. so this would be one of the sort of five or ten documents that you would showcase to a jury repeatedly if you were making the case. more generally, what's happening here, we moved everything back from the january 6th melee and perhaps if you look to the second impeachment, an effort to show that trump reved up the crowd to actually having pushed the crowd and organized the crowd or him and those close to him funded the crowd, advertised the crowd and not just january 6th itself but going back all the way until shortly after the election, less than two weeks after the election, these series of plots including the alternate
electors have come to the surface. so i think that's what raskin means when he's talking about mountains of evidence and pointing it at trump as someone who didn't just incite but potentially and people around him potentially actually controlled, insta gated in a legal word conspired. >> harry litman, barbara mcquaid, thank you for staying up late, getting up early and helping us make sense of what will certainly be a dramatic hearing as it gets under way on this thursday. greatly appreciate it to the both of you. >> we'll go back to steve kornacki right after the break for the latest election results. stay with us. ♪♪
♪♪ a quick check in on the latest results from today's primary elections with steve kornacki at the big board. hey, steve. >> yeah. still waiting on l.a. hasn't changed since the last time here, but it's rick caruso, karen bass. again, just waiting to see what the same-day vote looks like here. does it change this margin between the meaningfully in any way? is there any scenario caruso could win this outright? highly unlikely. we do want to see what the same day vote looks like. we want to see if one of these two candidates emerges with a clear advantage heading into that run-off again. top two barring anybody getting
50%. the top two face off in november to decide who will be the next mayor of los angeles. we've told you in california the biggest story of the night that's now complete is that recall of boudine. on the congressional side, an eye on embattled republican incumbent in the central valley who voted to impeach donald trump, david valadao. rudy salas is going to the general election. valadao is trying to hold on to this lead over chris mathys. the good news for valdao, we're looking at the same day vote, doesn't seem to be a lot of it. mathys is doing well with the same day vote. there may not be enough of it for him to catch valadao, if he can get to the general election against salas this is a fascinating race. this is a very democratic
district. this is a majority hispanic district that voted for joe biden by 13 points in 2020. david valadao got elected, lost his seat in 2018, won it years earlier, lost it in 2018, won it back in 2020. voted to impeach trump in 2021. he will need every vote he can have if he advances to the general election against rudy salas. this is one of the races democrats think what could be a tough year for them, this is a seat they badly like to pick up. show you a couple other primaries we're waiting on here. we have been mentioning young kim, republican freshman congresswoman, national republicans really trying to get her through to the general election. she's running in second place right now. if she stays in second place, she'll face mahmood the democrat in the general election. the good news if you're kim, yeah, you're ten points behind mahmood, there's three republicans on this ballot. only one democrat.
so if kim can consolidate the republican vote, she could be in a good position in november potentially. couple others to draw your attention to, we haven't mentioned this tonight. this is one of the only congressional districts in the country, california's 45th, asian-american district, again a freshman republican congresswoman michelle steel, she's going to finish second. chen the democrat will finish first here. looks like he's going to finish first here. these two will advance, though to a runoff in november. that's when things will be decided. but again, steel with a third republican in the race, you add those two republicans together, they're over 50%. so again this is one of those districts you voted for joe biden the margin was six points. democrats would love to take this seat. steel gets through to the general election, she may walk in with some advantages. two others in the area to flag for you, katie porter, democrat. she's gained a lot of prominence in recent years. thrown into a new district pretty much by redistricting a lot of this is new turf for her.
you see she's running 56%. everyone else in this race is a republican. scott baugh the former minority leader in the state assembly will be her opponent. right now she's running over 50%. one other that will be competitive this fall, mike levin, a democrat with a whole bunch of republicans trying to get in the number two spot. maryott is in the second spot distantly behind him, levin over 50%. these are all districts this november we're going to be spending a lot of time on because they'll have a lot to do with which party controls the house and by how many seats. >> steve, greatly appreciate you breaking it down for us. we'll check back in before the top of the hour. don't go anywhere. one issue we are going to keep an eye on is election integrity. donald trump and republicans loyal to him continue to spread baseless lies that the 2020 election was stolen.
election integrity has now become a critical issue and it's not on the minds or is perhaps on some of the voters as they cast their ballots in advance of the november elections. in a new abc poll released earlier this year, 20% of americans said they were very confident in the integrity of our elections. 39% of americans said they felt somewhat confident. we're back with our panel, christina, david, jonathan and jonathan. christina, i'll start with you. how have donald trump's lies about the safety of our elections impacted voters in the primaries so far? >> i haven't seen a huge effect, at least in california. what i'm looking a little bit more ahead toward is the general election and who signs up to take part in that really critical part of democracy of administering the ballots, getting the precincts open,
counting the ballots. all of those really public servants who are volunteering their time or even elected officials who are working in their jobs to make sure that votes are properly counted have been intimidated, threatened. a lot of them are asking themselves is it worth it based on what we're seeing. and we know there are all kinds of efforts to challenge every single vote where you're not winning, that we're going to see this precinct by precinct across the country where election day snot necessarily going to be the last straw. i think we'll see a lot of this decided in the courts. that's a big warning sign for both parties just to be able to restore faith in that democracy of voting. think about california, which we have been talking about these results. we don't have election day in california. it is election month. it is one of the easiest states to vote. you can register the same day. you can drop your ballot off at any vote center. let's say you work in one county and live in another. so many opportunities for you to have your voice heard and your
vote counted. and it works just fine. and the mail-in ballots, yes, they count them first and then it takes forever to count california votes because there's 20 milon people plus. but it really does actually work here. but that didn't stop donald trump in 2016 from claiming that he should have won california and there was election fraud then and i anticipate you'll hear this a lot more in the coming months. >> david, if you look ahead, there are over 20 candidates running for secretary of state that are election denier, people that are going to play critical roles in the actual conduct of our election, just the mechanisms of it come november and perhaps in 2024 the scarier thought if donald trump decides to run with these 20 secretary of states perhaps willing to believe in the big lie and willing to push through an election that he does not win, what strategy should their opponents use against election lies and people running to oversee our elections who believe in that lie?
>> well, i think first -- the big lie has really seeped into republican orthodoxy. but secondly, it reflects a republican strategy, a broader republican strategy that now the effort is being made to prevent the traditional certification of elections. if they can throw the election turnout or the election results into some type of chaos, they can move them into the hands of now partisan administrators. that is where the real threat to democracy lies and that is the legacy of donald trump's republican party. i think you know, democrats need to translate that to what does that mean? what does the loss of freedom? what is it around the area of -- around the area of gun violence? what is it that hangs in the balance if republicans -- taking away democracy from the voters. because ultimately republicans
when they grab power will use that power to effectuate policy change -- with where majority of the americans are today. >> jonathan alter, how do democrats put democracy on the ballot this november? because the fear to the extreme is that if you get these secretary of states and other state positions in which they control the levers of power that oversee our elections, we may not have another democracy if they would have gotten their way in 2020 and may play out again in 2024. >> that's absolutely right. that's not alarmist. we have one of our political parties that basically believes heads we win, tails you lose. if the democrats manage to win elections, they will just claim that they're stolen and try to have them decided by state legislatures or use their election officials to rig the
election. so the challenge for the democrats is very stark. they have to stop looking at races where local election boards, secretaries of state as boring, unsexy content. right now they still are. the donor base doesn't get it. they're giving money to these shiny object races instead of giving money to places like run for something horribly underfunded, terrific organization, trying to support candidates for secretaries of state and local election boards and having a lot of trouble raising money. democrats still don't get it that this is where the rubber meets the road if they want to save democracy, they have to invest in these races that relate to the election machinery. >> john allen, your thoughts on whether or not president trump, former president trump, is going to run in 2024? what could he possibly be
waiting for to see whether or not he makes that decision? >> well, i reported earlier this week. there's a divide among trump's advisers whether to wait until after the midterms, the traditional period for announcing for president or perhaps do so as early as this summer. people i talked to described him as bored and frustrated, not really liking playing king maker so much as liking being a candidate. and the possibility -- in fact, one of the advisers told me they thought he should go after the midterms said he is likely to make an announcement sooner than later. of course the final decision hasn't been made. so it's hard to announce he's running until he makes that decision. but all signs seem to point to him running. >> all right. i want to thank all of our panelists for joining us this evening. christina, david, jonathan and jonathan. when we come back, we'll get one last update on the primary election results from steve kornacki at the big board. that's next. e kornacki at the big board. that's next. er 360 smart bed.
we're comeback with our final minutes. a quick check of all the developments this evening at the big board with steve kornacki. steve, shut it down for us. >> yeah. well, i think i got these numbers burned into my retina at this point staring at the same ones for an hour and a half here. but again, you are looking at the results we have so far from the race for mayor of los angeles. if nobody gets to 50% tonight, the top two go to the general
election in november and settle things then. basically this is the vote by mail total. a lot of these were ballots that were cast and sent in two weeks ago a couple days ago. what we want to make sure what we have been waiting on and waiting and waiting and waiting to see some of the results from the votes cast by people at polling locations today just to make sure there's not some huge disparity to suddenly put one of these candidates close to 50%. short of that it will be rick caruso and karen bass in that general election for mayor of los angeles to be settled in november. certainly looks like it's headed in that direction. in california, the headline of the night, though, comes out of that recall election in san francisco. the district attorney has been recalled. been recalled by a lopsided margin. he will leave office. his successor will be appointed by the mayor of san francisco. that's a democrat london breed. she will make that pick. what are we waiting on in terms of drama?
in addition to the mayor's race in los angeles a couple of congressional races. here is the question, david valadao voted to impeach donald trump last year, will he hold on to second place in this 22nd district in california the central valley. if valadao can hold on to second place to set up a general election matchup between him and state legislature rudy salas. if not, valadao would be done. he would be out of office after this election. he wouldn't make it to the general election if one of these republicans have been campaigning against his vote on impeaching trump could catch him. not a ton of votes. not a ton of votes cast. maybe not a ton of votes left in this district. but still valadao has to wrap up second place to get to the general election. that would be tough for him, too. outstanding piece of business, national republicans badly want young kim freshman congresswoman to advance to the general election. she would face mahmood.
we have not officially declared her in second place. a bit of a question mark here. kim leading raths. national republicans put a ton of money behind her. they want her to stay in second place. they think that gives them a chance of hanging on to this seat. other drama still outstanding, montana, the newly created first district of montana. they gained a seat. the former interior secretary ryan zinke trying to stage a political comeback in this new congressional comeback unexpectedly close race for zinke. met within a point after a half of zinke, about two thirds of the vote in there. the margin is 855 votes. some scandals involving zinke when he was interior secretary. those have been fodder for his opponents in this campaign. a bit closer perhaps than some people expected. we will see where this one lands. again, the vote counting slow. wow, i made that map very small.
i was trying to take you to this, one more outstanding piece of business in mississippi, the third congressional district, republican member of congress michael guest running in second place here. we're still waiting on final votes to come in, but he's running in second place. mississippi is a runoff state. so even if he finishes in second and his opponent cassidy doesn't break 50, it would trigger a runoff, but a runoff is a dangerous place for any incumbent to be. why is michael guest in trouble? he is a republican, the only republican from mississippi, who voted for the creation of a bipartisan january 6th commission. that's become an issue in this campaign. again, right now, the most likely outcome here is that guest and cassidy, who made an issue out of that end up in a runoff on june 28th and settle things. there is one other republican incumbent who is in grave danger here, palazzo will finish first but with only 31% of the vote.
a lot of scandals around him. he's headed to a runoff. that's a bad number to head to a runoff in. >> my man, steve kornacki, thank you so much for breaking it down for us. thank you for watching this extended coverage of election night in america. have a good night. ♪♪ have a good night. ♪ living with metastatic breast cancer means being relentless. because every day matters. and having more of them is possible with verzenio. the only one of its kind proven to help you live significantly longer when taken with fulvestrant, regardless of menopause status.
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people are hurting. families are. parents are. and look, as divided as our country is, this gun responsibility issue is one that we agree on more than we don't. it really is. >> uvalde, texas, native and actor matthew mcconaughey adds star power emotional comments from the white house as part of the push for gun restrictions. plus, the latest on the investigation into january 6th.