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tv   Decision 2022  MSNBC  August 1, 2022 7:00pm-8:01pm PDT

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that is gonna do it for us. for now. i have good news. now, it is time for a special countdown to the midterms with the good and great steve kornacki. steve, i'm so looking forward to this. >> hey, rachel. thank you. i'm looking forward to it too. we are inside 100 days, can get to get started. i'll see her on election night too. that's all we're gonna be talking about. with that, folks, the countdown to the midterms on. ♪ ♪ ♪ >> 99 days from november 8th,
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and the big questions are, can the democrats somehow defy history, and hold on to the house, or are republicans poised for a big win? high inflation, gas prices, is the continuing covid pandemic, president biden's parties facing voters in a very bad mood this year. all republicans need to do to win the senate is to pick up one seat. it sounds easy enough, but are they actually in the process of shooting themselves in the four? how about, former president donald trump, is he helping or hurting the gop effort? and he does end up hurting it, will he end up hurting himself, when it comes to 2024? what about the end of roe v. wade? is it mobilizing democrats? and then, there is that major shift that we saw in 2020. hispanic voters abandoning democrats, and voting republican. it is accelerating even more this year. 99 days to go. let's get to it. let's start at the place where
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at least, for me it's all gonna and in 99 days from now, or i should say, it will start two and 99 days from now, because elections are no longer take one night. it will be election week this year. i think that is the new norm. 99 days from now, we will start to get results. and we said, big picture here, the country, the mood does not seem to be great, and the country's attitude towards the president right now is one of disapproval. here, you see, tonight, joe biden's average approval rating, the 1st of august, 38.6%. that is his average of all the polls that are out there right now, put this in some perspective, here's every other president this century at this same point, the 1st of august in the mid term here. what did their average approval rating look like? you can see here. we got a lot of low scores, actually. we have only got one high score. this was george w. bush in 2002, here after 9/11, still, a wave of patriotism was really fueling him back then. everyone else, though, had a low score.
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notable here, biden scores the lowest at this point, lower than trump's was in 2018. in fact, even lower than george w. bush in 2006. and those low scores, you can see what they translated into here. these are big losses in the house. at least a dozen seats, a couple of dozen in most cases, so that is the modern history, that joe biden is up against, scoring an approval rating like that. here's the big picture history. check this one out. we are going all the way back to the second world war right here. you are looking at how the white house party did in midterm elections. this is house seats here. and look at this, just in ocean of red ink. redding's lost seat, only two times, going all the way back to world war ii. only two times that thousand two example we showed you with bush and in 1998 with bill clinton, as the white house by taking seats. there was a backlash to the public can push to impeach bill clinton in 1988. every other midterm election going all the way back there has featured losses for the
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white house. really, the question has been, not at the white house party loses seats, but how many seats and now the white house party loses? that has been the rule of history. that's why republicans are so bullish, especially when it comes to picking up the house, because again, democrats control it, but look at how slim that majority is for democrats in the house. it really wouldn't take much in terms of the game for republicans to win the house. the senate, it also wouldn't take much for republicans to win the senate. and net gain of one seat gives republican control of the senate. but actually, there is some suspense that seems to be shaping up when it comes to control of the senate. again, republicans meaning and gain of one seat. what you are looking at right here is the battleground, or maybe, the potential battleground we could be looking at, when it comes to the seats that are gonna determine control of the senate. a couple of ways of looking at this. i think there are five states we can really zero in on right now. two of them narcy's for democrats, they think they are
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well positioned to play offense, to potentially pick up republican held seats. what are those two seats? one of them is pennsylvania. republicans are fielding doctor mehmet oz, as their candidate. the democrats lieutenant governor john fetterman. the poll numbers for oz have been very discouraging for republicans. this is the state the did vote for joe biden by about two points in 2020. so, it's an opportunity, the suspect to me, the republican, he is not running for reelection. if fetterman beats oz that isn't it going to the seat of democrats. that means republicans that have got to find two democratic seats to pick off. and then, there's another opportunity here, a clear one on paper for democrats in wisconsin. every election is close in wisconsin. one of those politically polarized states in the country. johnson has won twice before. he's kind of written off in 2016, but survived when donald trump unexpectedly carried wisconsin that year. we don't see a democratic opponent listed here yet, because when some wisconsin won't have its probably until next week. but it looks like the
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lieutenant governor barnes will be his opponent, could be an opportunity there for democrats to get again in wisconsin. so, that is where democrats think they are playing offense. what about republicans? trying to get that net gain, where are they looking? there are three states that are on paper, stand out, i say on paper, we're gonna talk about this later. we start with georgia. why does it stand out? because it was so close in 2020. traditionally, republicans it didn't go for biden in 2020, but biden's margin in georgia was barely over 10,000 votes, razor-thin. so, when you throw in biden's unpopularity now, that midterm history talked about, on paper, georgia is a very logical pick up opportunity for republicans. could be a little more complicated. we are gonna get into that. arizona, primary in arizona tomorrow. we're gonna see republicans nomination, the front runner is blake masters. again, arizona was less than 10,000 votes in the 2020 election. that was joe biden's margin in arizona. on paper, golden opportunity
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for republicans. could be a little bit more complicated, i'm gonna talk about that in a few minutes as well. there is also nevada. nevada is a state that actually been getting closer democratic, all of the century, but it's been getting closer. it was a two point margin for biden in 2020. adam lack so, again, a pick up opportunity there for republicans. those are five who are keying in on. there are some others that could emerge, as close races, as battleground races. we'll see how this map takes shape over the next 1990s. again, for republicans, it's an it gain of one. and they have control of the senate. if they can't hit that, the, democrats hang on. so, that's the big picture when it comes to the senate. that is the big picture when it comes to the mood of the country right now. here to talk about where this is all heading over the next 99 days. we got a great panel here. joining us in person, very excited by this. jennifer palmieri is the former communications director for the obama white house, and for hillary clinton's 2016 presidential campaign.
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and john, editor and commentary magazine, and a columnist for the new york post. thank you both for being here. let's get to it. so, we just went through the history on all of this. the history does not look good for democrats. biden's numbers don't look good for democrats. the combination of biden's numbers over history, don't look good for democrats. but as we come on air tonight, we have seen in the last few hours the president announced the killing of an al-qaeda leader. we had news last week of a potential breakthrough, negotiations in the senate on this climate bill democrats have been trying to get through. maybe, they have a deal with joe manchin now. and there's been some press coverage, and we are seeing, things are actually turning around in democrats. i wanna show you of these things. this is politico, a story they won just a couple of days ago. the headline, biden enters the always be closing face of his forced first term. and this is in response to a deal he struck with joe manchin. somehow, some way they write, joe biden is back in the game,
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after enduring abuse brutal here dominated by economic annexed, legislative setbacks, and sinking approval ratings, the president is certainly on the verge of a turnaround that the white house believes could salvage in summer, and alter the trajectory of his presidency. but with politico. you have an eight silver, at 5:38, the forecasting site. it says the political environment might be improving for democrats. he cites some legislative achievements. it also sets the roe v. wade decision, covid fading from the news, the january 6th hearings. and then, you've got dave wasserman, from the quick political report, we're gonna talk about that shortly. but he forecast house races for the quick report, and he said, he's gonna downgrade his forecast a little bit when it comes to republicans in the house. he says it is the red wave, adding probably not much, but as democrats show more signs of life and are still emanate several problematic candidates, or downgrading our house outlook from a gop gain of 20 to 35 seats, down to 15 to 30
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states. so, john, i will start with you. i listened to our podcast. i read your columns. i know you have been bullish on republican prospects in this next midterm elections. are you starting to feel any doubt about that? >> no. i think this is all wish casting. i think we haven't even discussed the issue that is going against biden. we haven't discussed the fact that 78 to 88% of the american people say we are on the wrong track we've got inflation, as a major political issue for the first time in 40 years. and one key thing to think about inflation is this. when you have a high unemployment number that means that nine or 10% of the employable people in the country are not employed. and that is a terrible things. but it affects them, their loved ones, and their immediate people around them. inflation hits everyone every single person in the united states, every single day, it is inescapable. it may be -- the acceleration
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of it may be listening. but that is just an anchor on democratic hopes, that all of the structural things they're talking about, maybe the public has had bad candidates here. maybe biden's had a couple of good weeks there. every time somebody goes to fill up their gas tank, they are getting mad, and they are getting worried, and they're getting anxious, and they feel bad. and the party in power has control of the house, the senate, and the white house. and the republicans don't. and therefore, i just don't understand how there's gonna be a turnaround, except if every individual candidate is so terrible that in district and in states, people double, we can't have them, which could be the case. but your historical map, our historical record, combined with the terrible issues that are facing democrats, it's just,
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i think, you just gotta be more realistic, and like, let go, batten down the hatches, if you're a democrat, and prepare for that tsunami to roll over you and see what you can do after election day. >> well, you are a democrat, jen? are you backing down the hatches. are you prepared for this? >> i'm -- i mean, democrats have been preparing for this tsunami, right? everything that john has said about biden's approval rating, and inflation being the worst that it's been for 40 years, and the massive number for americans in the country. that is all true. and still, the white house and politicians on capitol hill have given their candid as a fighting chance. if i'm in the white house, i'm very happy right now, because i understand everything that's against us. but i am saying, are we gonna be able to word of this tsunami? are we gonna maybe lose the house, but maybe lose seven or eight seats, we're not gonna lose 40 seats. you know, donald trump lost 40 seats when the economy was
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doing really well, right? and he still lost. and what the democrats have done for themselves now, if they pounce the inflation reduction act, they have a good record to run on. that's about inflation. that's about deficit reduction. that's about climate. they have a lot about bipartisan winds. they have bipartisan wins on infrastructure. they have bipartisan wins on guns, which is something people really care about. these are baby steps, showing that the government can work. it can move on to what the people care about. and then you have, i think it's important for biden that this is is all happening now, because people get the nationals moved kind of gets set up labor day. then it's up to the individual candidates, if you have some good candidates, they have a lot of money, they have more money than the republicans. to them, at that point, to take the ball and one with it. but for the white house to say, okay, we have been through hell, like no other president has. and we are giving our candidates a fighting chance, and now, it's up to them to go
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and then, take the new issues that have come upward, abortion, january 6th, those hearings are gonna be happening all throughout the fall. and then, guns continues to be a very big motivating issue. and then, can they rally all of that to hold on to the senate, and you know, lose the house probably? i mean, sean patrick maloney will probably -- so you can't say that we're not going to lose the house. but not, you know, like seven, eight seats. not 40, not a watershed election, which is pretty shocking, given the predictions there. >> i think that everything you say is true, that they're being given a fighting chance. but you can't fight a tsunami. if it is a tsunami, if you have every negative factor coming in at once, you can do brilliantly in july and august. and it's not gonna stop the wave test, because the wave is
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test a national mood. i'll give you an example of test says this. so, in 2010, when the democrats lost 63 seats in the house and six seats in the senate, at this moment, the generic ballot, which is when you ask, would you vote for a democrat or republican, if the election were held today? it was terrible for democrats. it was already six or seven points for the republicans favor. in 2014, you asked that question, it was pretty level. it was sort of one point either way at this point, again, august 1st. and the republicans won nine seats of the senate, and 16 seats in the house, in part because they didn't have much more than a win after the wave in 2010. right now, it is, again, even to a little bit leaning in republicans favor, and leaning considerably in republicans favor, if you only pull the 56 districts that are considered battlegrounds. wear anywhere between 5 to 9 points republican seem to have
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an advantage. let's but opinion is for right now, because you're actually setting up perfectly where i want to go from here. we're gonna come back to you guys in just a little bit, but i just want to add another voice of the situation. we're gonna talk in -- editor in chief of the cook political report, we are just talking about the cook political reports how forecasting. john was just mentioning a minute ago, the generic ballot. that question about which, party republican or democrat would you like to see control the house, here it is, the real clear politics average an engineering ballot. the republicans lead right now by 0.9 points, on average, over the democrats. for context, just a couple about six weeks ago, the republican leaders over three points. so it has come down over the last six weeks, and that's why want to pick things up with you amy, because we did show dave wasserman dialing back that house forecast mildly there for republicans.
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you heard our conversation about some of the abolitionists the democrats are suddenly starting to feel. i'm curious, do you think there is any real change taking place in the political landscape right now? that is tilting it toward the democrats, where is a noise? >> yeah, boy, i'm leaning more in john's favor right now, in terms of this argument that both of them are making excellent points. i think what's been going on for these past few weeks, let's say for the last half year of this summertime season, has a sort of media focus has been really good for democrats, in that it's been really centered on a number of things that aren't good for republicans. the january 6th hearings, the overturning of roe v. wade. that's very unpopular, january 6th very unpopular. donald trump continues to be in the news, these primaries
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featuring republican candidates who are saying pretty outlandish things, also in the news. so the kind of media diet that is out there right now, whether they're actually consuming it or it's through osmosis, they're getting some of this information. it's about as good for democrats as it can be, and i think that it is help to do a couple of things, -- just the intense level of enthusiasm for republicans a little bit, not seeing a lot of great stuff right now, and washington. there's not a lot for them to get excited about. and for democrats, there's actually some stuff for them to get excited about. jen also pointed out the fact that, you, know things are actually passing congress. some bipartisan measures, it looks like we're gonna get this reconciliation build back better meets inflation reduction, whatever you're gonna call this final thing, but i think you have a more enthused democratic base.
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but at its core, we have to go back to the points made at the very beginning, which is what is the overall political environment right, now and it feels like this conversation we're having is almost like we're in a play within a play. we are having this conversation right now, knowing that come the fall, all of the campaigns are gonna talk about, all the republicans are gonna talk about, especially, is the economy. and it's going to be focused very easily and simply on this. democrats are in charge, democrats we needed to pass this this big rescue package, that added to inflation, or caused inflation is what they will say. the president said that inflation was gonna be transitory, it's not. vote republican. and i think that's going to be a very challenging message for democrats to be able to overcome, because that's just
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not going to change between now and november. the economic environment is just not going to get much better. >> quickly, i want to ask you, amy because in the next segment we're gonna dive deep on the two senate races. we went through the battleground, whether senate battleground is shaping up to be. if there was one senate race but you could know the outcome of right now, that would be sort of a harbinger of how november 8th is gonna turn out for both parties, what would it be? >> i liked that you picked pennsylvania, because it is the one offensive opportunity that democrats have. on paper, well it is a quote unquote blue state, i would argue it's more of a purple blue state. and in this environment, republicans should win that district. but for the fact that they really do have weak hand in
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awe's. if oz comes back and wins this thing, what it will tell me is that the candidate doesn't in a matter as much as the environment. that's probably good news for other republican candidates who've had a not so auspicious start, like herschel walker in georgia would be a another one of those examples there. and then we're seeing kind of a mess in arizona as well. doesn't mean republicans would win all of those? but it would certainly be good news for them if they did. and if democrats win, to the point you made earlier, steve, it means that they can afford to lose one of their own vulnerable seats, and still hang on to the majority. it also suggests that yes, candidates are going to matter a lot, the environment is important. but some of these candidates were able to overcome it. >> amy, we're gonna be checking back with you in a little while. everyone stay with us at home, because when we come, back as i said, we are going deep on that
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question of whether republicans could be squandering that golden opportunity they have to win the senate. three key races we're looking at, to try to answer that question. swer tha question i am a triathlete. i've always been into health, and wellness, and fitness... i tried everything with diet and exercise, and nothing worked. there was just kinda this stubborn area on my stomach. but coolsculpting worked for me! coolsculpting targets, freezes and eliminates treated fat for good. no needles, no incisions. discuss coolsculpting with your provider. some common side effects include temporary numbness, discomfort and swelling. you've come this far... coolsculpting takes you further. visit it's 5:00 a.m., and i feel like i can do anything. we've been coming here, since 1868.
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talking about at the top of the show. republicans with one net gain to gain control of the senate, a gain of one seat net, and they get the senate. but we are, sane and we're just talking about with amy walter, the possibility the republicans have nominated the wee candidates who can't take advantage of the environment. again, take a look at the state like pennsylvania, amy was talking about mehmet oz, the republican nominee who back by tunnel trump, has not been pulling well in pennsylvania. could that lead to pennsylvania flipping blue? if it does flip blue, you take a look at a state like georgia, a state like arizona, we showed you earlier to the close of
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states on the 2020 election that on paper would be natural candidates to flip in a mid term year by 2022, but herschel, walker the republican nominee out of georgia. a lot of republicans have been concerned about his performance on the campaign trail, but some of the revelations that have come out, in arizona -- but the trump backed candidate, blake masters, may win that republican primary for senate tomorrow, trump has also backed a candidate for governor who full-on says the 2020 election was stolen. also state secretary of state candidate, and arizona republicans can nominate tomorrow who says the same thing. republicans in arizona could field a slate of candidates, more aligned with trump on 2020 election issues than any other battleground state. with that compromise republican chances in arizona. again, a net gain of one is all the republicans, need but if they put themselves in a position where maybe tough to find that. tvo sense of why republicans
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are nerve by some of these candidates. take a look at herschel walker on the campaign trail in georgia. >> we in america, have some of the cleanest air and clean as water anybody in the world. so all of a sudden china and india are including us in their situation. so all of our bad errors over there, but because we don't control the air, are good eric decides to florida for china becomes better. when china gets our good air, the batter got moved. so we moved over to good airspace. >> all, right back with our panel. i'm just gonna read some names here, sharon engel, christine o'donnell, ken buck, todd aiken. if you remember, these maybe our viewers remember some of these. john, we've seen republicans in the past ten years or, so this is back during the tea party area, field candidates who are too much for voters in season they have their wives would've won. is that mehmet oz, is that
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herschel walker? >> could well be, i just want to remind people as i said earlier, that in 2010, republicans did not pick up the senate, but they'd won six seats. they didn't not win seats, they didn't win the four seats they needed to get into the majority it took them, two more election cycles to get there. it's a 50/50 senate, walker can lose, oz could lose, johnson lose. if there is a -- because they're bad candidates, if there's a wave, their candidates we are not even talking about that could be swept. that's another thing that happens in a way, you've got tomorrow night there is a republican primary in washington state, this candidate their name tiffany smiley, nobody on the east coast knows anything about tiffany smiley, she is a dynamite candidate against patty murray, who's running for a sixth term. you've got adam laxalt, running against cortez moscow in nevada,
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in a state that's kind of trending republican, and where you have numbers and polling about hispanics in nevada, that have to be very unnerving to democrats. so, you can have unexpected victories. colorado we, joey days running -- a very good candidate. if the adversary is unfavorable to democrats, and stuff happens you can have unexpected victories that will make all of these conversations about herschel walker and dr. oz go away. >> those are the kind of things that can happen a wave years. -- definitely when that wave hits yeah, -- on georgia with you i thought that was an interesting set of numbers that came, 056 and pulling in georgia, because remember there's a governor race in georgia, brian kemp to republican running against stacey abrams a rematch in 2018. i think we have those numbers
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in the senate race, this is the governor's race. brian kemp is leaving abrams by three in this poll, same poll looked at the senate race, though, and it's a different result, actually has herschel walker trailing raphael warnock. the democrat, by four points in that race. it raises an interesting possibility to me that you see in there in georgia is something that might be an opportunity for democrats elsewhere. brian kemp, went to war with donald trump anyone, trump went after him in >> well, he won big. primary. >> did that make kemp more acceptable to swing voters in georgia, in a way that maybe herschel walker isn't? could you see a split in the vote in georgia, which act as decisive? >> yes, i think that could happen. georgia is such, it's such an interesting experience, because -- and i think that -- states like georgia, pennsylvania, michigan, really on the front line from
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november to january of 2020, those voters pay really deep attention, and they've been deeply affected by it. and the fact that, in georgia, republicans, it is a republican state that's been trending blue. that is different in wisconsin. pennsylvania and michigan are going the other way. it's been trending blue. those republicans hung on to the conventional leaders, like kemp. and i think they are very concerned about what they see in the performance of walker. you could see that kind of split. but i think, in those three states, pennsylvania, michigan, and georgia, where january 6th and the fight over, you know, over vote counts was so present that those issues are big for voters too, and i think that january six is gonna play a big role there as well. >> i want to ask about that as well, because one feature of this primary season has been
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democrats, sort of saying what you are saying, and something the weakness in republicans, who closely aligned themselves with donald trump's rhetoric toward january six. and in some cases, democrats have actually gone in and spend money, big money, to try and elevate some of these candidates. think of doug mastriano, the republican candidate for governor in pennsylvania. the theory democrats have there is, hey, this is a weak candidate. this allows us to win, whatever the scene is. but democrats are playing with fire here? >> it's scary. i will admit -- it makes me a little nervous to try to play god. i would say, in the defense -- you talk about doug mastriano in pennsylvania, he is the republican nominee. he, you know, was a big january six, he wasn't there, but a big supporter. but the answer the democrats are running, it's not as if they are running attack ads against the republicans that they think might be a tougher, general election candidate. they're just running ads about that person's record.
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they're just running ads about what doug mastriano -- >> the theory that it's gonna elevate him with the republicans. >> for democrats to attack him, it will elevate him. it is scary. i mean, i've been in these situations where, you know, the same thing in michigan, where a lot of the republican candidates have been taking off of the ballot. they've been challenged by democrats, taken on the ballot. and in the gubernatorial race, so, the candidate that's gonna end up there -- you know, you're just not sure, you are not sure what you are unleashing. but they're having to make tough calls, and you know, thus far, if we look at doug mastriano versus josh shapiro in pennsylvania, it looks now like a pretty good bet. pennsylvania voters are very attuned to these issues because their fate was on the front lines in that post election fire. >> here is a warning, quick warning. the democrats were up nine points in virginia in 21 governor's race. and up 16 points and the new jersey governor's race.
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and they won in virginia, and they came within three points in new jersey. this is a, one of the reasons that people hate politics, hate politicians, disingenuous, fiddling around, playing games with peoples expectations. and it is insane for democrats to elevate doug mastriano, who is basically set the t will challenge the results of the 2024 election, if he doesn't like them. as the governor of the state of pennsylvania, he maybe don't ten points, don't trust that number. we have reason to worry that those numbers are not solid. >> all right. we will have to leave it here, unfortunately. but we have 99 days to continue to do conversations. so jen palmieri, and john podhoretz, thank you so much, appreciate both joining us in this conversation tonight. and coming up, some more voters in kansas will have their say on whether the right to abortion in that state. now, as the supreme court has overturned roe v. wade, we're
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gonna get a report from the ground in kansas. and could tomorrow's vote tell us how the abortion issue would motivate voters in november? that is next. that is next that man is always on. and he's on it with jardiance for type 2 diabetes. his underhand sky serve? on fire. his grilling game? on point. and his a1c? ron is on it. with the once-daily pill, jardiance. jardiance not only lowers a1c... it goes beyond to reduce the risk of cardiovascular death for adults with type 2 diabetes and known heart disease. and jardiance may help you lose some weight. jardiance may cause serious side effects, including ketoacidosis that may be fatal, dehydration that can lead to sudden worsening of kidney function, and genital yeast or urinary tract infections. a rare life-threatening bacterial infection in the skin of the perineum could occur. stop taking jardiance and call your doctor right away if you have symptoms of this infection, ketoacidosis, or an allergic reaction, and don't take it if you're on dialysis. taking jardiance with a sulfonylurea or insulin may cause low blood sugar. a once-daily pill that goes beyond lowering a1c?
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seen this ad? it's not paid for by california tribes. it's paid for by the out of state gambling corporations that wrote prop 27. it doesn't tell you 90% of the profits go to the out of state corporations. a tiny share goes to the homeless, and even less to tribes. and a big loophole says, costs to promote betting reduce money for the tribes, so they get less. hidden agendas. fine print. loopholes. prop 27. they didn't write it for the tribes or the homeless. >> welcome back. they wrote it for themselves. tomorrow night, primary night in america. this isn't exactly a primary, but i think it might be the most interesting race we're gonna watch tomorrow. this is a referendum in kansas. the subject is abortion. this is the first time voters are gonna go to the polls to
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vote on abortion since the supreme court ruling to overturn roe v. wade. expect a lot of votes like this, by the way, and a lot of different states in the coming years. here is the first one. it is in kansas. what's on the line here? it's a referendum that would say, it would be constitutional, state constitutional amendment that would say, there is no legal right to abortion in the state constitution in kansas. if it passes, if yes winds, that could open the door to more restrictions, or even an outright ban on abortion in kansas. now, before the supreme court ruling, by the way, over the last decade or so, a few other states have had referendums on this, basically, exact same question. red states, all of them, and it passed in all of them, although, notably, it was close. only four points, when this kind of referendum was on the ballot in west virginia. and kansas, we think of, it is, a very red state. here is the polling we have here on this question. actually, the polling is close. there is the potential here for this referendum, tomorrow night,
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to be close, to be suspenseful, certainly, we're gonna be watching it. and i think a lot of folks across the country, on both sides, we're gonna be watching it. to find out more about what's going on the ground in kansas, let's go to kansas city reporter, katie bernard. she covers the kansas legislature and state governor for the kansas city star. katie, thank you for joining us. all eyes on your state tomorrow. let me just ask you this. if yes winds tomorrow, as we mentioned, it just says, okay, there is no right in the state constitution to have an abortion but, legally, doesn't mean anything more than that in the moment. so, if he has wins, what would happen? >> yeah, so lawmakers have been very quiet about what they will or will do after the amendment passes. but what we do know is that we have a historic abortion legislature with the gop supermajority. so, there is very much still a chance that they will come back
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in january, and passed a ban on abortion. more quickly, we are likely to see a couple of bills that are blocked by the 2019 supreme court ruling, that caused the state to have a right to abortion to pretty quickly go into effect. that is gonna be some very severe license or restrictions on the four clinics that still operate in kansas, and then, likely a ban on dilation and evacuation abortion. >> as you mentioned, the stakes as a feature republican control, there is a democratic governor of canvas kansas right now, laura kelly, she is running for reelection. if this passes, if she's opposed to it, and she's reelected, does that complicate what happens at all, in terms of what the future of abortion law in kansas would be? >> it will depend on the house election that we've got coming up this fall. currently, the senate has a two third majority, in the last two years, over writing a lot of
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vetoes. and the house has done the same. so, a lot of the traditional knowledge in the state, if this amendment passes, it will make it harder in swing districts for republicans to win reelection in the house. and if they lose that supermajority, we it likely they may be able to pass severe abortion restrictions. >> again, we'll be watching this one closely tomorrow night, 8 pm eastern. we're gonna start to get some numbers out of kansas. katie bernard, from the kansas city star, we thank you for joining us. appreciate that. and amy walter of the cook political report is gonna rejoin us now. amy, you mentioned this a little bit earlier. we were talking about some of the national politics of the overturning of roe v. wade. the democrats hope that this is an issue that is gonna sort of energize their base. it's gonna take democratic friendly voters, who previously maybe went soured on biden, when we're not excited about the midterm, and give them a reason to go out and vote. it's gonna be politically and equalizer for them, that's their hope. is this kansas vote tomorrow,
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very unusual to see or friend him in the primary, and not a general election. but is this referendum in kansas tomorrow gonna offer us a clue about whether democrats are on to something with that? >> yeah, perhaps. i mean, i always hate, and i'm sure you do too, steve, way too much into one election, one ballot measure, especially with comes during a primary season. look, i do think that the issue of abortion has motivated democratic, or democratic-leaning voters. voters who do prioritize this issue. and quite frankly, i think we are gonna have, and we have already seen turnout among democrats, to be pretty decent. now, it is not as strong, at least hasn't been as strong in primaries as republicans. but it hasn't dropped off a cliff. i think that's gonna continue to be there. the thing that i will be looking for is, how well does this ballot measure do in the one really competitive congressional district, in that state, which is right where i
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am, but johnson county suburbs, where there is a democrat they're running for reelection, a toss-up district. it could provide some clues for some of the same moderate swing democrats in those kinds of suburban areas, as to whether this issue could be a motivating in a factor, to help push back against the other headwinds of the economy and the presidents little approval ratings. >> yeah, i think right now vegas is offering a bit, the over under on the number of times i say, johnson county, tomorrow night is about 100. we will be talking about that and a lot. amy walter from the cook political report, thank you for joining us and for being a part of this. really appreciate it, thank you. coming up, 2022, 2024, and hispanic voters. our next guest says the democrats had a problem, when it comes to hispanic voters. and it's not as bad as you think he says, it is worse.
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only at vanguard you're more than just an investor you're an owner. that means that your priorities are ours too. our interactive tools and advice can help you build a future for the ones you love. that's the value of ownership. >> well, there is one major story to emerge in the 2020 elections, the shift we saw on the hispanic vote. democrats still won the hispanic vote in 2020. you can see, by 21 points. but that was down 17 points from 2016. hillary clinton won hispanic
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votes by 38, joe biden by just 21. and you know what? the joint seems to be continuing in 2022. what you are looking at here, this is the average of every poll we have got out there that's been taking over the last three months, that looks at the hispanic vote. and then, you put them altogether, hispanics are now voting democratic by just 13 points. so, from 38, to 21, now down in the 22 midterm polling, to the democratic advantage of just 13 points. what is going on here? our next guest, co-author of the emerging democratic majority. back in 2000 and, to argue that the diversifying electorate, including the growth of the staff hispanic election which could make democrats the majority party in the 21st century. two decades later, now, though he's now arguing, quote, working class and hispanic voters are losing interests in the party of abortion, gun control, and the january six hearing. ruy joins us now. thank you, ruy, for joining. gus it's interesting.
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i feel like i've been hearing, for years, maybe even decades, that hispanic -- there were certain issues that republicans could offer sort of as a bridge spanning voters. there was potential republicans with hispanic voters. and yet, it really seems that it was during donald trump's presidency that we started to see the significant movement that's continuing now. why did it start now? >> well, that's a good question. and i think a lot of democrats are asking themselves exactly that question, i mean it seems almost hard to believe donald trump, donald trump the guy who said the things he did about immigrants and was, you know, in a borderline or actually racist in a lot of ways, at least in his pronouncements. i think a lot of democrats assume that that should send hispanics hurtling in the democratic's direction, so they wouldn't carry them by 38 points. it's quite there in 2016, but rather by 45 points.
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as you pointed out, steve, what has happened, there is an incredible, you know very, very large drop in the democratic advantage among hispanics. nationally, and almost all states. and we see, moving into the 2022 election, that it's probably getting worse. some polls have hispanics basically just tied between republicans and democratic's in the generic congressional. this is, you know, off your election, hispanics probably voted for democrats in about 35 points. something happened that sending them away from the democrats. my theory is that there is a couple of important things here. one is, i think democrats assume that hispanics because, there are people of color, we're sort of all in on this racial reckoning that we had in the summer of 2020 around george floyd. and generally, they could be treated as a group that is very, very sensitive to these issues a brace, very, very sensitive
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to the kinds of the dialogue around that. and sort of very sensitive on the issue of immigration, for example, which was something that democrats always thought they had a big advantage on. and i think, in the process, democrats have lost track of the fact that this, as i put it, hispanic voters are normal voters. they are concerned with public mobility, jobs, health care, their communities, their kids, effective schools, public safety. these are voters who thought the democrats could be relied upon, doing a good job in those respects. and who could be counted on, even if they're more liberal than the other party, not to be so liberal that it would turn off people whose values were significantly more conservative than democrats. and all of that got lost, i think, that the transition from 2016 to 2020. and where we see the democrats going today, will they become far, far more socially liberal, the whole variety of issues, but do not in fact comport well with the media and hispanic
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voters, especially the media working class, hispanic voters. if you look at the tape to, that's clearly where they are losing most of their support, middle working class hispanics. >> it is a very significant shift, actually, in terms of the 2022 impact, and obviously, in the 2024 and beyond as well. ruy teixeira, thank you for taking a few minutes in joining us, really appreciate that. we'll be right back. be right back. ♪ here's something, ♪ ♪ here's something you're never gonna fff-forget, baby ♪ get a dozen shrimp for only one dollar with any steak entrée. only at applebee's. - [narrator] every three minutes, wa child is born with. a cleft condition. without surgery, some will die. those who do survive face extreme challenges. operation smile works to heal children born with cleft conditions. we need you. there are still millions in dire need of healing. go to today and become a monthly supporter, or call. (gentle music)
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night full court coverage of tomorrow's big primaries and all the results -- starts right now. ight now tonight, president biden's major announcement, a drone strike taking out the al-qaeda leader one of the masterminds of 9/11 when it means for the war on terror and our national security tonight. plus, it is the eve of primaries across the country with the future of democracy and abortion rights on the ballot. and we are back on capitol hill with a push to


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