tv Decision 2022 MSNBC August 1, 2022 10:00pm-11:00pm PDT
>> all right. that is gonna do it for us, for now. i have good news. now, it is time for a special countdown to the midterms with the good and great steve kornacki. steve, i'm so looking forward to this. >> hey, rachel. thank you. i'm looking forward to it too. we are just under 100 days, can't wait to get started. thank you and i'll see you on election night too. that's all we're gonna be talking about. with that, folks, the countdown to the midterms on. ♪ ♪ ♪ >> 99 days from november 8th, and the big questions are, can the democrats somehow defy history, and hold on to the house, or are republicans
poised for a big wave? high inflation, gas prices, the continuing covid pandemic, president biden's party is facing voters in a very bad mood this year. all republicans need to do to win the senate is to pick up one seat. it sounds easy enough, but are they actually in the process of shooting themselves in the foot? how about former president donald trump, is he helping or hurting the gop effort? and if he does end up hurting it, will he end up hurting himself, when it comes to 2024? what about the end of roe v. wade? is it mobilizing democrats? and then, there is that major shift that we saw in 2020. hispanic voters abandoning democrats and voting republican. it is accelerating even more this year. 99 days to go. let's get to it. let's start at the place where at least, for me it's all gonna end in 99 days from now, or i should say, it will start to end 99 days from now, because elections no longer take place in one night. it will be election week this year. i think that is the new norm. 99 days from now, we will start
to get results. and we said, big picture here, the country, the mood does not seem to be great, and the country's attitude towards the president right now is one of disapproval. here, you see, tonight, joe biden's average approval rating, the 1st of august, 38. 6%. that is his average of all the polls that are out there right now, put this in some perspective, here's every other president this century at this same point, the 1st of august in the mid term year. what did their average approval rating look like? you can see here. we got a lot of low scores, actually. we have only got one high score. this was george w. bush in 2002, a year after 9/11, still, a wave of patriotism was really fueling him back then. everyone else, though, had a low score. notable here, biden score is the lowest at this point, lower than trump's was in 2018. in fact, even lower than george w. bush in 2006. and those low scores, you can see what they translated into here. these are big losses in the house. at least a dozen seats, a
couple of dozen in most cases, so that is the modern history, that joe biden is up against, scoring an approval rating like that. here's the big picture history. check this one out. we are going all the way back to the second world war right here. you are looking at how the white house party did in midterm elections. this is house seats here. and look at this, just an ocean of red ink. red ink is lost seat, only two times, going all the way back to world war ii. only two times that 2002 example we showed you with bush and in 1998 with bill clinton, as the white house by taking seats. there was a backlash to the public can push to impeach bill clinton in 1998. every other midterm election going all the way back there has featured losses for the white house. really, the question has been, not if the white house party loses seats, but how many seats
in the house the white house party loses? that has been the rule of history. that's why republicans are so bullish, especially when it comes to picking up the house, because again, democrats control it, but look at how slim that majority is for democrats in the house. it really wouldn't take much in terms of the gain for republicans to win the house. the senate, it also wouldn't take much for republicans to win the senate. and net gain of one seat gives republican control of the senate. but actually, there is some suspense that seems to be shaping up when it comes to control of the senate. again, republicans meaning and net gain of one seat. what you are looking at right here is the battleground, or maybe, the potential battleground we could be looking at, when it comes to the seats that are gonna determine control of the senate. a couple of ways of looking at this. i think there are five states we can really zero in on right now. two of them are seats where democrats, they think they are well positioned to play offense, to potentially pick up republican held seats. what are those two seats? one of them is pennsylvania. republicans are fielding doctor mehmet oz, as their candidate. the democrats lieutenant governor john fetterman. the poll numbers for oz have
been very discouraging for republicans. this is the state that did vote for joe biden by about two points in 2020. so, it's an opportunity, the pat toomey, the republican, he is not running for reelection. if fetterman beats oz that isn't it going to the seat of democrats. that means republicans that have got to find two democratic seats to pick off. and then, there's another opportunity here, a clear one on paper for democrats in wisconsin. every election is close in wisconsin. one of those politically polarized states in the country. johnson has won twice before. he's kind of written off in 2016, but survived when donald trump unexpectedly carried wisconsin that year. we don't see a democratic opponent listed here yet, because wisconsin won't have its probably until next week. but it looks like the lieutenant governor mandela barnes will be his opponent, could be an opportunity there for democrats to get again in wisconsin. so, that is where democrats think they are playing offense. what about republicans? trying to get that net gain, where are they looking? there are three states that on
paper, stand out, i say on paper, we're gonna talk about this later. we start with georgia. why does it stand out? because it was so close in 2020. traditionally, republicans say it didn't go for biden in 2020, but biden's margin in georgia was barely over 10,000 votes, razor-thin. so, when you throw in biden's unpopularity now, that midterm history talked about, on paper, georgia is a very logical pick up opportunity for republicans. could be a little more complicated. we are gonna get into that. arizona, primary in arizona tomorrow. we're gonna see republicans nomination, the front runner is blake masters. again, arizona was less than 10,000 votes in the 2020 election. that was joe biden's margin in arizona. on paper, golden opportunity for republicans. could be a little bit more complicated, i'm gonna talk about that in a few minutes as well. there is also nevada. nevada is a state that actually been getting closer democratic, all of the century, but it's been getting closer. it was a two point margin for biden in 2020.
adam lackso, again, a pick up opportunity there for republicans. those are five who are keying in on. there are some others that could emerge, as close races, as battleground races. we'll see how this map takes shape over the next 99 days. again, for republicans, it's an it gain of one. and they have control of the senate. if they can't hit that, the, democrats hang on. so, that's the big picture when it comes to the senate. that is the big picture when it comes to the mood of the country right now. here to talk about where this is all heading over the next 99 days. we got a great panel here. joining us in person, very excited by this. jennifer palmieri is the former communications director for the obama white house, and for hillary clinton's 2016 presidential campaign. and john, editor and commentary magazine, and a columnist for the new york post. thank you both for being here. let's get to it. so, we just went through the history on all of this. the history does not look good for democrats. biden's numbers don't look good for democrats. the combination of biden's
numbers over history, don't look good for democrats. but as we come on air tonight, we have seen in the last few hours the president announced the killing of an al-qaeda leader. we had news last week of a potential breakthrough, negotiations in the senate on this climate bill democrats have been trying to get through. maybe, they have a deal with joe manchin now. and there's been some press coverage, and we are seeing, things are actually turning around in democrats. i wanna show you of these things. this is politico, a story they ran just a couple of days ago. the headline, biden enters the always be closing face of his forced first term. and this is in response to a deal he struck with joe manchin. somehow, some way they write, joe biden is back in the game, after enduring abuse brutal year dominated by economic angst, legislative setbacks, and sinking approval ratings, the president is certainly on the verge of a turnaround that the white house believes could salvage in summer, and alter the trajectory of his
presidency. that was politico. you have an nate silver, at 5:38, the forecasting site. it says the political environment might be improving for democrats. he cites some legislative achievements. it also sets the roe v. wade decision, covid fading from the news, the january 6th hearings. and then, you've got dave wasserman, from the cook political report, we're gonna talk about that shortly. but he forecast house races for the quick report, and he said, he's gonna downgrade his forecast a little bit when it comes to republicans in the house. he says it is the red wave, adding probably not much, but as democrats show more signs of life and are still emanate several problematic candidates, or downgrading our house outlook from a gop gain of 20 to 35 seats, down to 15 to 30 seats. so, john, i will start with you. i listened to your podcast. i read your columns. i know you have been bullish on republican prospects in this next midterm elections. are you starting to feel any doubt about that? >> no.
i think this is all wish casting. i think we haven't even discussed the issue that is going against biden. we haven't discussed the fact that 78 to 88% of the american people say we are on the wrong track, we've got inflation, as a major political issue for the first time in 40 years. and one key thing to think about inflation is this. when you have a high unemployment number that means that nine or 10% of the employable people in the country are not employed. and that is a terrible things. but it affects them, their loved ones, and the immediate people around them. inflation hits everyone every single person in the united states, every single day, it is inescapable. it may be -- the acceleration of it may be listening. but that is just an anchor on democratic hopes, that all of the structural things they're talking about, maybe the
republicans have bad candidates here. maybe biden's had a couple of good weeks there. every time somebody goes to fill up their gas tank, they are getting mad, and they are getting worried, and they're getting anxious, and they feel bad. and the party in power has control of the house, the senate, and the white house. and the republicans don't. and therefore, i just don't understand how there's gonna be a turnaround, except if every individual candidate is so terrible that in district and in states, people double, we can't have them, which could be the case. but your historical map, our historical record, combined with the terrible issues that are facing democrats, it's just, i think, you just gotta be more realistic, and like, let go, batten down the hatches, if you're a democrat, and prepare for that tsunami to roll over you and see what you can do after election day. >> well, you are a democrat,
jen? are you backing down the hatches. are you prepared for this? >> i'm -- i mean, democrats have been preparing for this tsunami, right? everything that john has said about biden's approval rating, and inflation being the worst that it's been for 40 years, and the massive number for americans in the country. that is all true. and still, the white house and politicians on capitol hill have given their candidates a fighting chance. if i'm in the white house, i'm very happy right now, because i understand everything that's against us. but i am saying, are we gonna be able to ward off this tsunami? are we gonna maybe lose the house, but maybe lose seven or eight seats, we're not gonna lose 40 seats. you know, donald trump lost 40 seats when the economy was doing really well, right? and he still lost. and what the democrats have done for themselves now, if they pass the inflation reduction act, they have a good record to run on. that's about inflation. that's about deficit reduction. that's about climate.
they have a lot of bipartisan wins. they have bipartisan wins on infrastructure. they have bipartisan wins on guns, which is something people really care about. these are baby steps, showing that the government can work. it can move on to what the people care about. and then you have, i think it's important for biden that this is is all happening now, because people get the nationals mood kind of gets set up labor day. then it's up to the individual candidates, if you have some good candidates, they have a lot of money, they have more money than the republicans. to them, at that point, to take the ball and one with it. but for the white house to say, okay, we have been through hell, like no other president has. and we are giving our candidates a fighting chance, and now, it's up to them to go and then, take the new issues that have come upward, abortion, january 6th, those hearings are gonna be happening all throughout the fall. and then, guns continues to be a very big motivating issue. and then, can they rally all of that to hold on to the senate, and you know, lose the house
probably? i mean, sean patrick maloney will probably -- text me soon, to say, you can't say that we're not going to lose the house. but not, you know, like seven, eight seats. not 40, not a watershed election, which is pretty shocking, given the conditions and they are in. >> i think that everything you say is true, that they're being given a fighting chance. but you can't fight a tsunami. if it is a tsunami, if you have every negative factor coming in at once, you can do brilliantly in july and august. and it's not gonna stop the wave, because the wave is a national mood. i'll give you an example of this. so, in 2010, when the democrats lost 63 seats in the house and six seats in the senate, at this moment, the generic ballot, which is when you ask, would you vote for a democrat or republican, if the election
were held today? it was terrible for democrats. it was already six or seven points for the republicans favor. in 2014, you asked that question, it was pretty level. it was sort of one point either way at this point, again, august 1st. and the republicans won nine seats of the senate, and 16 seats in the house, in part because they didn't have much more than a win after the wave in 2010. right now, it is, again, even to a little bit leaning in republicans favor, and leaning considerably in republicans favor, if you only pull the 56 districts that are considered battlegrounds. we are anywhere between 5 to 9 points republican seem to have an advantage. >> let's put assume on this. you are actually setting up, perfectly, where i want to go from. here i wanna come back to you guys, in just a little bit. right now, i do want to add another voice to the conversation.
i want to pick up on just what john was talking about there. bring in amy walter here. amy's editor and chief of the cook political report. we were just talking about the cook political report, house forecasting. john was mentioning just a minute ago, the generic ballot, that question we are asking pollsters about which party, republican or democrat would you like to see control of the house. and here's the real clear politics the average right now in the generic ballot. their publicans lead right now by 0.9 points. on average, over the democrats. for context, just a couple of, six weeks ago, their republican lead was over 0.2 points. so it has come down over the last two weeks. that's why i wanted to pick things up, because we did show dave wasserman dialing back that house forecast mildly there for republicans. you heard our conversation, i, think about some of the bullish on is the democrats are suddenly to feel. i'm curious, do you think there's any real change taking place in the political landscape right now, that is tilting it towards the
democrats? or is it noise? >> yeah, boy, i am leaning more in john's favor right now, in terms of his argument, that both of them are making excellent points. look, i think, what's been going on for these past few weeks, let's say for the last half year of the summertime season, this sort of media focus has been really good for democrats, and that it's been really centered on a number of things that aren't good for republicans, the january 6th hearings, the overturning of roe v. wade. that is very unpopular. january 6th, very unpopular. trump continues to be in the news. these primaries, featuring republican candidates who are sending pretty outlandish things, also in the news. so, the kind of media diet that is out there right now, that folks, whether they're actually
consuming it, or it's just sort of last resort, getting some of this information. it's about as good for democrats as it can be. and i think that it's helped do a couple of things. one, not only depressed the level of intense level of enthusiasm for republicans, a little bit. they're not seeing a lot of great stuff right now in washington. there is not a lot of things to get excited about. and for democrats, there's actually some stuff for them to get excited about. jen also pointed out the fact that things are actually passed in congress. bipartisan measure, some looks as if we will try to get this reconciliation, build back better, meets inflation reduction, whatever we're gonna call this final thing. but i think you have a more enthused democratic base. but at its core, we have to go back to the point made at the very beginning, which is what is the overall political environment right now. it feels like this conversation we are having it's almost like we are in a play within a play,
right? that we're having this conversation right now, knowing that come fall, all that the campaigns are gonna talk about, all that republicans are gonna talk about, especially, the economy. and, it's going to be focused very easily and simply on this. democrats are in charge. democrats said we needed to pass this big rescue package. that added to inflation or cost inflation, that's what they will say. the president said that inflation was gonna be transitory. it's not. vote republican. and i think that's gonna be a very challenging message for democrats to be able to overcome, because that's just not gonna change between now and november, the economic environment is just not gonna get much better. >> quickly, i want to ask you, amy because in the next segment we're gonna dive deep on the two senate races.
we went through the battleground, whether senate battleground is shaping up to be. if there was one senate race but you could know the outcome of right now, that would be sort of a harbinger of how november 8th is gonna turn out for both parties, what would it be? >> i liked that you picked pennsylvania, because it is the one offensive opportunity that democrats have. on paper, well it is a quote unquote blue state, i would argue it's more of a purple blue state. and in this environment, republicans should win that district. but for the fact that they really do have weak hand in awe oz. if oz comes back and wins this thing, what it will tell me is that the candidate doesn't in a matter as much as the environment.
that's probably good news for other republican candidates who've had a not so auspicious start, like herschel walker in georgia would be a another one of those examples there. and then we're seeing kind of a mess in arizona as well. doesn't mean republicans would win all of those? but it would certainly be good news for them if they did. and if democrats win, to the point you made earlier, steve, it means that they can afford to lose one of their own vulnerable seats, and still hang on to the majority. it also suggests that yes, candidates are going to matter a lot, the environment is important. but some of these candidates were able to overcome it. >> amy, we're gonna be checking back with you in a little while. everyone stay with us at home, because when we come, back as i said, we are going deep on that question of whether republicans could be squandering that golden opportunity they have to win the senate. three key races we're looking at, to try to answer that question. and ask your doctor about biktarvy.
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talking about the top of the show, republicans just need one net gain to gain control of the senate, a gain of one seat net and they get the senate. but we are, sane and we're just talking about with amy walter the possibility that republicans have nominated weak candidates that can take advantage of the environment. it look at states like pennsylvania, amy was just talking about mehmet oz, the republican nominee who is that fight donald trump, has not been pulling well in pennsylvania, could that lead to pennsylvania flipping blue? if it does flip blue, you take a look at a state like georgia, a state like arizona we've showed you earlier to the closest states from the 2020 election that on paper would be natural candidates to flip in a -- but herschel walker, the republican nominee for senate in georgia, a lot of republicans have been concerned by his performance on the campaign trail, some of the
revelations that have come out. in arizona, republicans appear, pelosi tomorrow or a in the primary. masters may win that republican primary for senate. trump is also back this candidate for, governor who full-on says the -- secretary of state candidate, in arizona republicans can nominate tomorrow, who says the same thing. arizona, republicans in arizona could field a slate of candidates, more aligned with trump on 2020 election issues in any other battleground states. but that compromise chances in arizona? and i can have one is all they need, but if they put themselves in the position where it may be able to tough to find it will give you a sense of why republicans are concerned about them, here's herschel walker on the campaign --
all that bad air over, there but because we don't control the air. all this good air decides to float over to china, with the batter. so with china, their bad air has to move. so moves over to our good airspace. >> all right, back with our panel i'm just gonna read some names here, sharon angle, christine o'donnell, kenny buck, todd aiken. maybe remember, these maybe our viewers remember some of these, we've seen republicans in the past ten years ago or so, field candidates who are too much for voters in seats that might have one is that mehmet oz herschel walker? >> could well be, i just want to remind people as i said earlier that in 2010 republicans did not pick up the senate. but they won succeeds, they didn't not wind seats.
i -- took them two more election cycles to get their, it's a 50/50 senate, walker can lose, oz can lose, johnson can lose if because there are bad candidates, if there a wave there are candidates were not even talking about there being swept, it's another thing that happens in a wave. we've got tomorrow night there is a republican primary in washington state, there's a candidate their name tiffany smiley, nobody on the east coast knows anything about tiffany smiley. she is a dynamite candidate, against patty murray who's running for a sixth term, -- got adam laxalt running in, nevada a state that is kind of trending republican, where you have numbers in polling about hispanics in nevada that had to be very unnerving to democrats so you can have unexpected victories.
colorado, joel ade is running against michael bennet, apparently a very good candidate. if the atmosphere is unfavorable to democrats, and stuff happens, you could have unexpected victories, that will make all these conversations about herschel walker go away. . >> those kind of things happened wave years. >> that definitely, when that wave hits, yeah. the candidates on the other side will win. >> i'm on georgia, with you because i thought there was an interesting set of numbers i came, out fox there's some poll in georgia, because as the governor's race in georgia too. brian kemp, the republican, running against stacey abrams. i think we have those numbers, in the senate race, this is the governor's race. brian kemp is leaving abrams by three in the same poll, the same poll like the senate race though. and it's a different result. actually have herschel walker trailing raphael warnock, the
democrat by four points in that race. it raises the interesting possibility, to me, it is seen there in georgia something that might be an opportunity for democrats elsewhere. brian kemp went to war with donald trump, and he won. trump ran in the primary, but brian kemp won. >> he won big. >> did that make kemp more acceptable to swing voters in georgia? in a way that maybe herschel walker isn't? can you see a split ticket vote in georgia, where that's a decisive factor? >> yes, i think that can happen, georgia is such an interesting experience because -- i think that states like georgia or michigan literally on the frontlines from november to january of 2020, those voters play really deep attention, and they've been deeply affected by. and the fact that in georgia, a republican state's been
trending blue, -- in pennsylvania michigan go another way. republicans say it's been trending blue, those republicans hung on to the conventional leaders like kemp. and i think they're very concerned about, what they see in the performance of walker, and you could see that kind of split. i think in those three states, pennsylvania, michigan, and georgia, where january 6th and the fight over vote counts was so present, those issues are big for voters, to i think the jan six could play a big role there as well. >> i want to ask about that as >> i want well, because one feature of how soup this primary season has been democrats, sort of saying what you are saying, and something the weakness in republicans, who closely aligned themselves with donald trump's rhetoric toward january six. and in some cases, democrats have actually gone in and spend money, big money, to try and elevate some of these candidates. think of doug mastriano, the republican candidate for
governor in pennsylvania. the theory democrats have there is, hey, this is a weak candidate. this allows us to win, whatever the scene is. but democrats are playing with fire here? >> it's scary. i will admit -- it makes me a little nervous to try to play god. i would say, in the defense -- you talk about doug mastriano in pennsylvania, he is the republican nominee. he, you know, was a big january six, he wasn't there, but a big supporter. but the answer the democrats are running, it's not as if they are running attack ads against the republicans that they think might be a tougher, general election candidate. they're just running ads about that person's record. they're just running ads about what doug mastriano -- >> the theory that it's gonna elevate him with the republicans. >> for democrats to attack him, it will elevate him. it is scary. i mean, i've been in these situations where, you know, the same thing in michigan, where a lot of the republican candidates have been taking off
of the ballot. they've been challenged by democrats, taken on the ballot. and in the gubernatorial race, so, the candidate that's gonna end up there -- you know, you're just not sure, you are not sure what you are unleashing. but they're having to make tough calls, and you know, and i think thus far, if we look at doug mastriano versus josh shapiro in pennsylvania, it looks now like a pretty good bet. , again, pennsylvania voters are very attuned to these issues because their fate was on the front lines in that post election fire. >> here is a warning, quick warning. the democrats were up nine points in virginia in 21 governor's race. and up 16 points and the new jersey governor's race. and they won in virginia, and they came within three points in new jersey. this is a, one of the reasons that people hate politics, hate politicians, disingenuous, fiddling around, playing games with peoples expectations. and it is insane for democrats to elevate doug mastriano, who
is basically set the t will challenge the results of the 2024 election, if he doesn't like them. as the governor of the state of pennsylvania, he maybe down ten points, don't trust that number. we have reason to worry that those numbers are not solid. >> all right. we will have to leave it here, unfortunately. but we have 99 days to continue to do conversations. so jen palmieri, and john podhoretz, thank you so much, appreciate both joining us in this conversation tonight. and coming up, some more voters in kansas will have their say on whether the right to abortion in that state. now, as the supreme court has overturned roe v. wade, we're gonna get a report from the ground in kansas. and could tomorrow's vote tell us how the abortion issue would motivate voters in november? that is next. ♪ ♪ ♪ it's 5:00 a.m., and i feel like i can do anything. we've got apples and cabbage. 7,000 dahlias, vegetables, and
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♪ ♪ ♪ >> welcome back. tomorrow night, primary night in america. this isn't exactly a primary, but i think it might be the most interesting race we're gonna watch tomorrow. this is a referendum in kansas. the subject is abortion. this is the first time voters are gonna go to the polls to vote on abortion since the supreme court ruling to overturn roe v. wade. expect a lot of votes like this, by the way, and a lot of different states in the coming years. here is the first one. it is in kansas. what's on the line here? it's a referendum that would say, it would be constitutional, state constitutional amendment that would say, there is no
legal right to abortion in the state constitution in kansas. if it passes, if yes winds, that could open the door to more restrictions, or even an outright ban on abortion in kansas. now, before the supreme court ruling, by the way, over the last decade or so, a few other states have had referendums on this, basically, exact same question. red states, all of them, and it passed in all of them, although, notably, it was close. only four points, when this kind of referendum was on the ballot in west virginia. and kansas, we think of, it is, a very red state. here is the polling we have here on this question. actually, the polling is close. there is the potential here for this referendum, tomorrow night, to be close, to be suspenseful, certainly, we're gonna be watching it. and i think a lot of folks across the country, on both sides, we're gonna be watching it. to find out more about what's going on the ground in kansas, let's go to kansas city reporter, katie bernard. she covers the kansas legislature and state governor
government for the kansas city star. katie, thank you for joining us. all eyes on your state tomorrow. let me just ask you this. if yes wins tomorrow, as we mentioned, it just says, okay, there is no right in the state constitution to have an abortion but, legally, doesn't mean anything more than that in the moment. so, if yes wins, what would happen? >> yeah, so lawmakers have been very coy about what they will or will do after the amendment passes. but what we do know is that we have a historic abortion legislature with the gop supermajority. so, there is very much still a chance that they will come back in january, and pass a ban on abortion. more quickly, we are likely to see a couple of bills that are blocked by the 2019 supreme court ruling, that caused the state to have a right to abortion to pretty quickly go into effect. that is gonna be some very severe licensure restrictions on the four clinics that still
operate in kansas, and then, likely a ban on dilation and evacuation abortion. >> as you mentioned, the state legislature republican control, there is a democratic governor of canvas kansas right now, laura kelly, she is running for reelection. if this passes, if she's opposed to it, and she's reelected, does that complicate what happens at all, in terms of what the future of abortion law in kansas would be? >> it will depend on the house election that we've got coming up this fall. currently, the senate has a two third majority, in the last two years, over writing a lot of vetoes. and the house has done the same. so, a lot of the traditional knowledge in the state, if this amendment passes, it will make it harder in swing districts for republicans to win reelection in the house. and if they lose that supermajority, we it likely
highly unlikely that they may be able to pass severe abortion restrictions. >> again, we'll be watching this one closely tomorrow night, 8 pm eastern. we're gonna start to get some numbers out of kansas. katie bernard, from the kansas city star, we thank you for joining us. appreciate that. and amy walter of the cook political report is gonna rejoin us now. amy, you mentioned this a little bit earlier. we were talking about some of the national politics of the overturning of roe v. wade. the democrats hope that this is an issue that is gonna sort of energize their base. it's gonna take democratic friendly voters, who previously maybe went sour on biden, were not excited about the midterm, and give them a reason to go out and vote. it's gonna be politically and equalizer for them, that's their hope. is this kansas vote tomorrow, very unusual to see a referendum in the primary, and not a general election. but is this referendum in kansas tomorrow gonna offer us a clue about whether democrats are on to something with that? >> yeah, perhaps. i mean, i always hate, and i'm
sure you do too, steve, reading too much into one election, one ballot measure, especially with comes during a primary season. look, i do think that the issue of abortion has motivated democratic, or democratic -leaning voters. voters who do prioritize this issue. and quite frankly, i think we are gonna have, and we have already seen turnout among democrats, to be pretty decent. now, it is not as strong, at least hasn't been as strong in primaries as republicans. but it hasn't dropped off a cliff. and i think that's gonna continue to be there. the thing that i will be looking for is, how well does this ballot measure do in the one really competitive congressional district, in that state, which is right where i am, johnson county suburbs, where there is a democrat they're running for reelection, a toss-up district. it could provide some clues for some of the same moderate swing democrats in those kinds of suburban areas, as to whether
this issue could be a motivating enough factor, to help push back against the other headwinds of the economy and the presidents little approval ratings. >> yeah, i think right now vegas is offering a bit, the over under on the number of times i say, johnson county, tomorrow night is about 100. we will be talking about that and a lot. amy walter from the cook political report, thank you for joining us and for being a part of this. really appreciate it, thank you. >> of course. >> coming up, 2022, 2024, and hispanic voters. our next guest says the democrats had a problem, when it comes to hispanic voters. and it's not as bad as you think he says, it is worse. ♪ ♪ ♪ so we need something super distinctive... dad's work, meet daughter's playtime. thankfully, meta portal auto pans and zooms to keep you in frame. and the meeting on track. meta portal. the smart video calling device that makes work from home work for you.
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voting democratic by just 13 points. so, from 38, to 21, now down in the 22 midterm polling, to the democratic advantage of just 13 points. what is going on here? our next guest, ruy teixeira, co-author of the emerging democratic majority. back in 2002, he argued that the diversifying electorate, including the growth of the staff hispanic election which could make democrats the majority party in the 21st century. two decades later, now, though he's now arguing, quote, working class and hispanic voters are losing interests in the party of abortion, gun control, and the january six hearing. ruy joins us now. thank you, ruy, for joining. gus it's interesting. i feel like i've been hearing, for years, maybe even decades, that hispanic -- there were certain issues that republicans could offer sort of as a bridge spanning voters. there was potential republicans with hispanic voters. and yet, it really seems that it was during donald trump's presidency that we started to see the significant movement
that's continuing now. why did it start now? >> well, that's a good question. and i think a lot of democrats are asking themselves exactly that question, i mean it seems almost hard to believe donald trump, donald trump the guy who said the things he did about immigrants and was, you know, in a borderline or actually racist in a lot of ways, at least in his pronouncements. i think a lot of democrats assume that that should send hispanics hurtling in the democrat's direction, so they wouldn't carry them by 38 points. it's quite there in 2016, but rather by 45 points. as you pointed out, steve, what has happened, there is an incredible, you know very, very large drop in the democratic advantage among hispanics. nationally, and almost all states. and we see, moving into the 2022 election, that it's probably getting worse. some polls have hispanics
basically just tied between republicans and democrats in the generic congressional. this is, you know, off year election, hispanics probably voted for democrats in about 35 points. something happened that sending them away from the democrats. my theory is that there is a couple of important things here. one is, i think democrats assume that hispanics because, they are people of color, were sort of all in on this racial reckoning that we had in the summer of 2020 around george floyd. and generally, they could be treated as a group that is very, very sensitive to these issues of race, very, very sensitive to the kinds of the dialogue around that. and sort of very sensitive on the issue of immigration, for example, which was something that democrats always thought they had a big advantage on. and i think, in the process, democrats have lost track of the fact that this, as i put it, hispanic voters are normal voters.
they are concerned with public mobility, jobs, health care, their communities, their kids, effective schools, public safety. these are voters who thought the democrats could be relied upon, doing a good job in those respects. and who could be counted on, even if they're more liberal than the other party, not to be so liberal that it would turn off people whose values were significantly more conservative than democrats. and all of that got lost, i think, that the transition from 2016 to 2020. and where we see the democrats going today, will they become far, far more socially liberal, the whole variety of issues, but do not in fact comport well with the media and hispanic voters, especially the media working class, hispanic voters. if you look at the data, that's clearly where they are losing most of their support, middle working class hispanics. >> it is a very significant shift, actually, in terms of the 2022 impact, and obviously, in the 2024 and beyond as well. ruy teixeira, thank you for taking a few minutes in joining
us, really appreciate that. we'll be right back. >> >> ♪ i try so hard, i can't rise above it ♪ ♪ i don't know what it is 'bout that little ♪ get a dozen shrimp for only one dollar with any steak entrée. now that's eatin' good in the neighborhood. only at vanguard, you're more than just an investor you're an owner. that means that your goals are ours too. and vanguard retirement tools and advice can help you get there. that's the value of ownership. i typed in my dad's name... and i found his childhood home. he's been wondering about the address for seventy years... (chuckle) and i found it in five minutes. travel back in time in no time with the 1950 census on ancestry.
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day and night. full coverage of tomorrow's big primaries, and all the results, and the 11th hour starts right now. >> ♪ ♪ ♪ >> tonight, president biden's major announcement, a drone strike, taking out the al-qaeda leader, one of the masterminds of 9/11. what it means for the war on terror, and our national security, tonight. plus, it is the eve of key primaries across the country, with the future of democracy and abortion rights on the ballot. and we are back on capitol hill with the push to pass the pact act, to help veterans with another vote eminent. as the 11th hour gets underway on this monday night. ♪ ♪ ♪ >>
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