Observations from long-term ozonesonde measurements show robust variations and trends in the evolution of ozone in the middle and upper troposphere over Reunion Island (21.1 degrees South Latitude, 55.5 degrees East Longitude) in June-August. Here we examine possible causes of the observed ozone variation at Reunion Island using hindcast simulations by the stratosphere-troposphere Global Modeling Initiative chemical transport model for 1992-2014, driven by assimilated Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) meteorological fields. Reunion Island is at the edge of the subtropical jet, a region of strong stratospheric-tropospheric exchange. Our analysis implies that the large interannual variation (IAV) of upper tropospheric ozone over Reunion is driven by the large IAV of the stratospheric influence. The IAV of the large-scale, quasi-horizontal wind patterns also contributes to the IAV of ozone in the upper troposphere. Comparison to a simulation with constant emissions indicates that increasing emissions do not lead to the maximum trend in the middle and upper troposphere over Reunion during austral winter implied by the sonde data. The effects of increasing emission over southern Africa are limited tothe lower troposphere near the surface in August-September.

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