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tv   [untitled]    February 8, 2012 8:18pm-8:48pm EST

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korea is an absolute treasure they're going to destroy the proposed expansions in okinawa will destroy huge areas and and untold numbers of species and when they go into a place like the chens that italy where i used to live the cultural damage not to mention taking all the ground water is incredible to turn a beautiful renaissance town into essentially a us military camp it makes me deeply ashamed lastly i want to ask you i mean we do see the shift to the asia pacific region so we do see this expansion setting up new base says do you see this problem getting better and the foreseeable future will there is a chance of it getting better in that cutting military spending is talked about as rational and possible and in fact some initial cuts are actually mandated by law now until that's on done if it isn't done so there is the possibility that there
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will be cuts and that they won't all be imposed on veterans' health care and not military aspects of our security state but that some of them will get the military and that in so doing some of the lowest hanging fruit will be foreign bases i certainly hope so for for any number of reasons including our relationships with the rest of the world they've had a pleasure to have you on the show as always that was david swanson campaigner for a faction. well the drums of war against iran beating louder now in the middle east as israel's saber rattling suggests an attack on the country may not be too far off in the future and israel says if and when they attack the only give the us twelve hours notice so is war with iran just around the corner artie's marina part and i reports. america almost never misses an opportunity to raise its ally ironclad commitment and i mean i don't claim to israel's security has meant the
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closest military cooperation between our two countries in history both point the proverbial punch at its greatest adversary but there will be no doubt. america is determined to prevent iran from getting a nuclear weapon and i will take no options off the table ok however for many americans when they really support the rockwell family more of a war against iran doesn't go far no sign of the simply state i'm uncook committed to israel's security you have to promote policies that commit you that show that you're serious about his security israel through these actions feels that that obama is not committed to doing everything this power to stop iran from having nuclear weapons iran is a and is an existential threat to israel and obama should be saying. so publicly that he will support israel in whatever military action they stay necessary more inclined is president of the zionist organization of america he says an
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unprecedented amount of american jews and israelis share his animosity a feeling arguably underscored by the israeli government according to published reports tell of eve would only give washington twelve hours notice if deciding to strike iran i believe his policies are among the most hostile israel's ever experienced of any president in my lifetime recently it was the life of president obama being threatened in a column written by the owner of the atlanta jewish times in an article titled what would you do andrew adler listed the assassination of obama as one way to ensure israel's security he wrote in part give the go ahead for u.s. based massada agents to take out a president deemed unfriendly to israel in order for the current vice president to take his place and forcefully dictate that the united states policy includes hoping the jewish state obliterate its enemies i think that threat made. either right.
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or we are going to kill you either politically or literally i think that it. our experience of the american president and all money. is the largest. group in the united states it is the kingmaker in. the american israel public affairs committee known as a pac declined our teams request for an interview meanwhile obama finds himself facing another election and a slew of republican opponents exactly banging on much louder war drums against iran with regards to iran which perhaps represents the greatest existence a threat to israel we have to make it abundantly clear it is unacceptable and i take those that word carefully is unacceptable for iran to become a nuclear nation if rick santorum and when rick santorum is president iran will not
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get a nuclear weapon because the world as we know it will be no more clear i want to have israel i'm very close to netanyahu i would have said publicly that i would rather plan a joint operation conventionally than push the israelis to a point where the nuclear. at a time when the u.s. bears the burden of a broken economy growing social unrest and ongoing military conflicts starting a war with iran would not be in america's best interest but in order to keep a best friend many believe obama will be forced to put israel's national security first or an important r.t. new york. and earlier i spoke with jamal a policy director for the national iranian american council and he voiced his opinion on how much influence israel has on u.s. foreign policy take a lesson well. bibi netanyahu in particular has exercised enormous influence on the president's ability to conduct foreign policy has really put
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a lot of pressure on him and has limited his ability to basically live out a lot of the promises that he made obama made on the campaign trail whether it was to engage in diplomacy with iran to prevent war with iran anything that this president is trying to do he's been hit hard by. basically you know whose allies in congress and in the right wing establishment so now israel is going as far as to say that if and when they launch an attack on iran that they're only going to give the us twelve hours notice so not too much notice there with this statement does this suggest that war with iran is even closer than expected i think we need to be careful you know when when israel is engaging in this sort of public rhetoric. is maybe not what we need to be as concerned as when they go silent you don't necessarily want to project that you're going to engage in these strikes right
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before you do them because it makes it less likely that they're going to have any degree of success so i think a lot of this is about putting more of that pressure on the president really feeding his opponents a lot of the tools they need to say this this president is not standing with israel they have this spat over iran and i would just point out that you know obama has done more than any of his predecessors to put the type of sanctions that you know bibi netanyahu claims to want in place against iran in place he has had more success than any of his purpose that apparently that doesn't seem to be enough for israel well really what i think is the problem here is that obama has pressured israel on other on other areas on the you know on the palestinian issue obama at least initially signal that he was actually going to be a little bit more willing to press the israelis to make some concessions that quickly dissipated the president suffered some big. election losses that put his
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reelection sort of in question so he's been a lot more conservative in those positions as well in his position which really upset some of the establishment in israel regarding diplomacy with iran he's really still paying the price for saying on the campaign trail i will talk with the iranians directly now with the israeli prime minister making this claim or this threat that the u.s. is only to get twelve hours' notice does that kind of show that maybe the relationship to the between the two that. isn't as close as maybe thought. i think that it's probably i think what the president wants to do is say as he has said we are in lockstep with israel i don't want this to be a liability for my reelection and i think that netanyahu and his supporters and like i said particularly in the right wing establishment they would like to see this president taken out there sort of this alliance that's being. formed on the basis of this president isn't as close to israel as his predecessors have been not
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because of any policies but because of you know this perception that has been created in the pressure that he's put it and so now israel does decide to attack how do you think the u.s. will respond i think that the u.s. probably will have a lot of options i think that very quickly depending on what happens the u.s. could be drawn into an escalation that results from that we don't know how the iranians would respond there's a possibility that they would respond in iraq or in the persian gulf in areas where the u.s. is very vulnerable and to think that you know our closest ally in the middle east would give us only twelve hours notice if that and put us in such a dangerous position put you know american diplomats american troops in danger is very you know it's unconscionable and. i think that you know folks that advocate for these strikes by israel understand that israel can't take out iran's nuclear
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capability they can maybe delay it by a year maybe two years but what that is going to create is this long term military confrontation and the u.s. is going to be a part of it. some of the reports are saying the motive behind israel saying that they're only going to give us this small amount of time is that they're worried that president obama is going to try to prevent an attack on iran and why would it be and the u.s. in the u.s. interest to prevent an attack i mean especially when it comes to oil prices. a war with iran would make the last ten years of military adventurism look like a cakewalk in comparison it would drive oil prices up you know who knows one hundred fifty two hundred two hundred fifty dollars a barrel send shock waves through our economy and shock waves through the european economy. and like i said this would be a long term confrontation that we would really have a difficult time digging ourselves out of
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a lot of people say that you know you you can't actually shut down the runs nuclear capability without a full scale military occupation and that's going to be you know u.s. troops involved in that we've all seen what the wars in iraq and afghanistan have done to the economy and to the stature of the united states in terms of international prestige and power so i think that we would see that in on an even larger scale and that's why the president has indicated that he's not in favor of premature military operations against iran i would say that we're pretty far away from the point in time where we would have to make a decision to do that but the israelis are indicating that they're threshold is lower than the americans it's very interesting pleasure to have you on the show as always that was jamal of the policy director for the national iranian american council. and be sure to stay tuned for the big picture that's coming up in just a half an hour it's an i guess i'll stand sax we'll tell you all about the
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anti-marijuana crusader who was busted by police let you guess that they exist. but that's going to do for now for more on the stories we covered you can head over to our dot com slash usa and you can also follow me on twitter at liz wall for now have a great night see you back here tomorrow. you know sometimes you see a story and it seems so you think you understand it and then you glimpse something else you hear or see some other part of it and realize that everything you thought you knew you don't know i'm tom are welcome to the big picture.
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and if you. follow in the welcome to crossfire i'm peter lavelle facebook's initial public offering is being called a very big deal and many hope the i.p.o. will lift the entire tech sector but is the i.p.o. a good one public ownership of facebook negatively impact the company's success and is it a profitable investment. the to keep. students . to cross-talk facebook's i.p.o. i'm joined by jay ritter in gainesville he's a professor of finance at the university of florida and in toronto we cross to peter leeds he's
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a financial analyst and publisher of the peter leeds newsletter or a gentleman cross-talk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i really very much encourage it if i could go to peter leeds in toronto on the face of it is this going to be a good party good i.p.o. will be successful and is that a good long term investment. this for me on the show peter i think first the price is going to go up i think to be a successful i.p.o. on first glance but then you're going to have to look at the valuation ratios you know it's going to one hundred times earnings twenty five times revenues that's way too high we think a lot of people are going to jump into it just because it is facebook and we think it's going to either price further and at the end of the day this over time will start coming back down jay what do you think about that i mean more hype than common sense being. touted here when we look at this i.p.o. i mean obviously facebook is very very popular but is that its popularity reflected in its valuation. i think peter's scenario is very plausible
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with the huge brand name recognition it's possible that investors are going to drive up the price especially since a relatively small percentage of the company is being sold at the valuations that people are talking about one hundred times sales twenty five hundred times earnings twenty five times sales the long run upside for investors that is a limited ok if i go back to peter in toronto i mean last year facebook generated i don't want three point seven billion dollars eighty eight percent up from the year before those kind of numbers are not sustainable are they. well what's going on in north america you have to divide it between developed nations and developing nations development north america for example europe they've pretty much got critical mass there they're not going to get a lot more people anybody who's on facebook is going to be on facebook is already
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there there's a lot of room for growth all the growth is coming from developing nations now russia india china but the problem with that is that they're not able to convert that into the same degree of revenues from the advertisements it's in tory's for not driving as much advertisement spending of retirement dollars and so a lot of the growth may be behind facebook and going forward it might have a little bit of trouble getting to the next level ok jane look who's going to buy this stock i mean you can see institutional investors i mean pensions i mean individuals who do you think it's most attractive to it because you know institutions are are not really represented on facebook i mean people are ok is it the people that are on facebook to be interested in the stock do you think. this is some of them with over eight hundred million users it doesn't take a bit very big percentage of them to be interested but the reality is institutional investors if they are going to buy buy a lot more shares an individual might buy one hundred two hundred even five hundred
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shares but an institution might be buying a million shares five million shares and a lot of institutions are going to be buying ok peter i mean is there some precedents out there we look at the tech sector and the what the most well known ones are google and america online which way what president do you think facebook might follow or will it be just unique. it's going to be unique but they are going to have a lot of competition from google plus google's decided to get into the social media space and they're going to do that pretty aggressively and overseas they've got a lot of competition too from brazil and china india you know these are these are nations where they have a platform there that they're going to start leveraging their platform to tension we to users away from facebook facebook tori's problems trying to get into china at all so you're going to have
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a lot of people who more choice going forward haven't had a lot of competition yet with those days are ahead of them and now they're going to see you know we have to see how they're going to react to that it's interesting you point that out in russia facebook is not particularly popular it's here but there's a russian version that many people are very attracted to jail if we could if we can look at the emerging markets one of the interesting things is and we advertising dollars is a big part of the future of any company like facebook in emerging markets people do not necessarily are attracted to the to the ads because they're there they're spending ability is much more limited than let's say in north america or the english speaking world i mean is this something that's being played into you can grow the numbers but you're not going to get any revenue from them. well there's both the issue of how many users and then the revenue per user the per capita income growth in certain emerging markets. result in
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a lot of long term upside potential. lower middle income consumers rise to be middle income and higher middle income consumers the bullish case for facebook is actually based upon the google model where google has demonstrated that a lot of money can be made on targeted search it's a very efficient form of advertising and google has been able to grow its revenue per user very substantially facebook has a lot of that upside potential as well but things could go wrong. while america online had a very large market share fifteen years ago and largely faded research in motion with blackberry had a very big market share
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a couple of years ago and they've run into some tough times so with facebook they they've got a wired and growing potential market a case can be made that they're going to be as successful as google generating profits. of nine point seven four billion dollars just thirteen years after being founded but on the other hand they could fall off of that growth path as well and that's the problem with the very high valuation that people are talking about that that it's a bad optimistic growth path built into the price and it doesn't. possibility that they're going to fall off of that growth path targeting advertising is very interesting peter because on facebook particularly there's the privacy issue in people getting more and more sensitive to that issue and targeted advertising is
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the contradict is a antithetical to privacy is this something that investors should be worried about and thinking about because the the users of facebook want their privacy or at least most of them do and of course the advertisers want to know as much as possible about these people and you know that facebook is going to have to make a decision maybe even make a compromise which could also hurt its image and maybe its popularity. that's an excellent point peter what's going on right now think of it like a seesaw where on one side you've got google or facebook trying to maximize their advertising targeting by watching everything you do on the other side of the teeter totter you've got people who are tired and weary of all their actions being tracked and most recently we've had all sorts of backlash in terms of privacy issues with the issues and with the google problems and now you've got you know facebook's tried to address this by having you know twenty or twenty years of audience with the f.c.c. for privacy they've also change their privacy laws but at the end of the day people
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don't trust the internet when they go on there and when they're going around on facebook it's tracking what books you like what videos you watch who you are who your friends are and it's going to be a little bit too much i think and people are starting to have a little bit of a backlash against it when you think about that jamie it's the flavor of the month right now but as we go down i mean people are going to invest in this company because they want to make money not just because they like facebook maybe there's an overlap of the two but people going to go in there and they don't want to be very aggressive because i want this company to perform in the valuations are very high they want the valuations to meet expectations do you think that you know this is facebook's going to have a real challenge in dealing with the privacy issue and with sales because there's high expectations here like we haven't seen for a while. well with the privacy issue there's kind of an anonymous lack of privacy in terms of it doesn't bother me if.
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google or facebook or linked in. able to tell some advertiser i'm one. forty seven thousand and nine and this ip addresses that have some of the following characteristics in terms of my age a rough guess for my income level and the fact that i subscribe to several business magazines and do a lot of international traveling. you know if it's not identifying me by name does it bother me that some targeted ads get sent my way and that i don't get that i have absolutely no interest in. you know in terms of that and an image just a number that doesn't bother me. the other hand if you've got some government that is demanding. we want the names behind the.
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dresses that's another issue ok peter jay told me before the program he's not going to i'm on facebook and you're on facebook i mean do you check any of the ads you click on any of the ads on facebook. i never have i never dressed your guests last point in. and the fact that you know you could be on facebook is tracking what you like and what you do at work somebody walks by and sees you want facebook on your monitor and on the side is a whole bunch of ads that are going to be related to what you like you might not want that person to know that you are interested in overseas vacations or whatever it may be and so there's a bit of a privacy breach there i think because it's going to put ads that are appropriate to what you've been looking at on your facebook page for people to walk by and see ok gentlemen we're going to go to a short break and after that short break we'll continue our discussion on face stay with our.
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come across talk you can hold on to minute we're talking about facebook's i.p.o. . story. and now we're joined by garrett fieri in philadelphia he's founder of market tamer dot com if i can go to you first gareth in philadelphia thank you for joining us here one of the things we're talking about earlier in the program is the facebook's ability to expand one thing that's very interesting about the eight hundred forty million forty five million users that half of them go for use the facebook from mobile instruments you know i got an i pad or something like that and facebook gets zero revenue from that if people are accessing it from their telephone is this going to be have to be the next major breakthrough for us for facebook and other social networking because i'm not going to pay for advertising on my telephone i don't know anyone who will. well i think what's interesting about
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facebook is they can actually generate money even if people are not clicking so they can generate from brand awareness just by impressions being placed on phones so if you are looking for example at the numbers four hundred million plus mobile users that set to increase. the rate they're generating returns from the regular platform which is about five dollars close to five dollars per user if they can figure out how to monetize that channel that's potentially another four hundred million times five that's two billion dollars in returns and revenues to the top line that they can generate which would increase their revenues from current levels by almost fifty percent you know that would be very good news peter if i go to you you know when we look at the business model that facebook has right now and it's been very profitable very successful.


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