tv Sophie Co RT June 23, 2017 2:29pm-3:01pm EDT
founder of the u.k.'s independence party professor emeritus at the london school of economics alan get. as brigid negotiations going under way the u.k. government is in chaos after the conservative snap election ploy backfired forcing the prime minister to scramble for a coalition to brussels use the confusion to pull more out of the talks with them come to negotiations collapse into hard or even a no deal divorce and what will that mean for both sides of the english channel. skep professor emeritus of international history at the london school of economics founder of the u.k. independence party and the new deal party here a skeptic welcome back to my show it's great to have you with us alan. hello thank you as the bracks at negotiations get on their way between the u.k. and the e.u. european politicians are saying that a door back into the union is open but that it will be a brand new door that the u.k.
will still lose money if it wants back in why is russia has taken this position i mean does it also want the katoey war is it just making an example of the u.k. oh i think it's just playing games i mean this new prospects of the returning to the. specially if the conditions all that we would give up are rebates and we would also have to give up our op. ed the saying the reinforces the impression i have the no way that we can go back now. who holds to cards in the negotiations right now. well i think both sides have different cards so the hold on the brits you saw is the main one is money. when we leave will stop paying about ten billion a year into the e.u. budget that's a huge hole in the budget and desperate to somehow rather reclaim that money and
sold these funny dumond's hundred billion before we start negotiations they also need free trade with the british internal market they sell huge amounts of goods from germany because the french wind the italian the goods to the british and they don't want to lose that market will be discriminated against in the market and find the lead very dependent on british help in defense and security of as we have all these calls to play cod is the no we want to free trade deal to have free access to the whole market in europe so this is this is one which the negotiations will. the better britons living in here about the here plans living in the u.k. is one of the focal points in those talks britons who leave in the e.u. expect to have rights there are here to offer u.k. as european divorce including their rides to work and receive benefits in a country of residence doing london is ready to grant the same rights to the hearer
pains living in the united kingdom. yes i think so i think the british have always been ready to give a generous settlement to the europeans living in the u.k. what stopped them so far is the europeans being ready to grant a similar sentiment to the brits who lived in europe either in spain or all ireland on from it's. really that should be settled quite quickly the new difficulty that it's a reason is the e.u. is not saying that the rights to citizens living in britain after bricks it should be protected in the due decay to the european court of justice not if britain's coming out it's and becoming a sovereign independent country over the counter be allowed from our point of view well let people be forced to be uprooted eight shit london and brussels fail to
find common ground on this for instance will the british retirees be forced to come back home from sunny spain to flog in britain i have no idea i don't think that it's going to happen i think the spanish have already said that the happy to keep the british pensioners in spain as long as we get growing says spanish people working in the u.k. . again this is a slight possibility that may complicate all this because of gibraltar but if the sensible love going to happen so at this point brussels is sending signals it may accept as soft blacks it which implies retaining closer here k e u tyson braeden remaining in the european customs union at the same time you negotiators are warning that britain has to pay what they call an have to bill if they want this kind of scenario to feel where it is in effect being blackmailed during these talks . i do see the british will go for the british government just now it's quite clear
. that it will. and succumb lots of the customs union and the single market i would have thought that any deal that required to still to pay billions into brussels to accept the. superiority of the european court of justice to accept free movement. or even a deal whereby we had a can of sammy's sort of. entrance into the single market but we still had to accept. the regulations made by brussels without i'd be taking part in the discussions beforehand that would be unacceptable because that would mean the brussels could create regulations for the city of london which could be affected steroid so i don't think we'd be full for that speaking about the bill blumberg is saying bracks it could cost the u.k.
sixty alien to eighty billion arus which is more than that british defense budget can do you care for it to cut this bill. if the loan of a good thing that's the bill that it's going to be presented to the stone to negotiations than negotiations will still be today because the british have no intention of paying any such bill which is a just. i don't know a try on by the. by the europeans because legally they know and we know we're not obliged to pay anything so wait so you're saying britain is not going to pay has no attention intention to pay so what's going to happen then. well i think there's going to be a confrontation at the very start and if the european union puts forward a bill about two hundred billion euros and says no pay that or else
a nigga sation still woman negotiations will then stolpe. will call the bluff. and then nothing will happen is that we'll get an agreement that you look we could talk about some kind of figure it will be no one india eighty or one hundred billion but we we can say to them that we were prepared to talk about some kind of figure at the end one suv tied up will do things as a whole then we would look at the overall figure that we might concede to you well what kind of figure could that be to have an idea will ruin just says that the high is possible figure the government would come to play to something like twenty to twenty five billion but that's the highest i don't think paul heyman would be very happy with that figure i think you'd be quite low yeah it certainly may think. oh that's just the old paul there's no way the britain's going to pay dearly and so if their recent mate said no deal is better than
a bad deal then taken the level of commercial cooperation between britain and europe can london afford to just walk away i mean could this logic and up destroying the british economy. no because you must remember that most comes in the world have no free trade agreement with the european union all countries in the world have access to the single market system that's when what i mean the average industrial tariff. on industrial goods that we just want to would be merely four percent will the pons the claw end by about twelve or sixteen percent exporters and not going to be very worried by four percent tariff when the they've already got a twelve percent advantage because of the decline in the pond there was a few things like agriculture. and condiment was the things with the you know the tires the slightly higher but. we could just make special arrangements for our
phones but of a full percent general tariff according to w t o rules is really no less significant so women talk about what's going to happen to britain if it doesn't pay but it does orderly ags it would be damaging for all of the e.u. as well so despite the tough posturing are the interests of both the e.u. and britain basically the same in this talks well i do sorts i mean the e.u. sells formal to us and we sell to the e.u. so it's manufacturers or is exporters generally have a greater incentive to smooth. exit than even the bushies have but obviously on both sides there's no advantage for either side to have a rough and tumble of tariffs and various other things and a smooth transition as well both sides need bracks it might jeopardize an open
border between the two islands and that isn't going to sit well with the northern irish who are used to having access to their kit in the south so both london and brussels said they don't want to have a hard border back but one having it open leave a huge back door into the u.k. once it leaves to e.u. and regains control over its borders which was one of the main reasons for bracks it. well i think both sides of the border is a special case they're working very hard to come up with a solution number of possible solutions being put forward i think because again it's so much in the interests of the republican bought into as well as the interest of north and. have open border to a halt border. i'm sure the problem will be resolved ukraine's blacks it secretary david davis is insisting that their recent may is good in dealing with european
leaders on contentious issues would you agree with his evaluation. of the evidence is that when she was home secretary to paul to see you negotiations to go doing. base laws and home affairs and just as she did exceptionally well in protecting the british point of view getting zero tolerance when we wanted them so everyone more or less agrees the record in the sttng secretary was he was extremely good all right alan we're going to take a short break right now when we're back we'll continue discussing uncertainty in the u.k. political life in the wake of the general election with alan skep professor emeritus of international history at the london school of economics you keep founder stay
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seriously send us an e-mail. and we're back with alan skep professor emeritus at the london school of economics to our original founder of the u.k.'s independence party talking about what britain's latest vote means for the negotiations on the country's exit from the e.u. alan welcome back to a party us on it pulled off a stunning upset with racks. but had disasters election it seems to be falling apart you said that you keep has achieved its goal and should simply disappear now so is there absolutely no room for a you keep come back i'm for example if there's to be bad blocks and deal could you keep play on that to voters back will see a red ticket is a case for you keep staying or on just in case the breaks in the gay sessions. i'm not sure i'm convinced by i think that if there are difficulties whose brax it
. defense of breck's it will be taken up in the house of commons largely by conservative members of parliament who have now become very very committed bricks it is nigel farage who he was a dreadfully to view. is talking about coming back and having a kid of street movement that would be akin to the labor party momentum movement but that would i feel just. the possibility of a far left and far right street clashes and that's no good to parliamentary democracy and a good at tool i think we want. the support in the house of commons and subpool from traditional multiple to groups using traditional political mess and saw inside the house of commons to stiffen the government's resolve if it's needed so by setting up a snap general election there recently a was hoping to consolidate support for her party and therefore for rex it and this
resulted in the conservatives losing their majority how rash was to snap election decision considering the initial polls i don't think it was rushed or truly of the time it seemed a perfectly sensible thing to do another explanation of the need for a general election seems to be to be convincing what went wrong was a the. the tory party manifesto which horrified most people in the come tree be the way she conducted herself during the campaign she was old was. reluctant to meet the population as a whole she avoided large meetings she avoided debates with all the party does had become the custom in. general elections in this country and she seemed to be on the able to give flew into discussions. in the hans is the
use of quite short and repetitive and again. i did as she didn't seem to come over as someone who had any sense of humor and once humanity said she's fought to rebel to can i think the country having seen. those three or four or five weeks of it was just turned away from them but she got five percent more votes than the tory party go to the last election the tory vote went up by five percent now you've got us latest poll suggests that may is now as unpopular as jeremy carbon was last november meanwhile the labor leader has seen a remarkable turnaround in a proliferating how do you explain this shift in public opinion mean last year he was a socialist linked to the ira and one of the quaint gone according to the media well his tactic in the. general election campaign was not safe to buy bricks it actually a tool which election was cold but he merely said that he was
a nice gave the appearance of being a nice kind grandfather to figure it was like santa claus was going to give presents to everybody who wanted them so he told students didn't need to pay for their education he told everybody else they would get a pay increases so they would get larger social welfare benefits say he just promised to sprinkle money it on give presidency had to be in the loop in line it was really like you know his manifesto was really like a wish list to santa. he played the santa claus college in the became popular everybody like sent the coals to george osborne the former chancellor all three apps check her sat there is i'm a dad woman walking do you also think that her own party may revolt against her well it's absolute declares she will be allowed to lead the tories into the next general election. she is
a dead moonwalk in the sense and which she knows that she's the physical as the conservative party wants a to be the. just not of the don't want to know the general election to think of the distributed crisis would not do the polity any good. to fill that need until recesses for the summer she's very safe after that. tory m.p.'s will go to the constituencies takes on things they side with the party really wants to keep her on. and her fate will be sealed when tory m.p.'s come back and the know will the ordinary members want and have decided among themselves no but the you know the having it was a front. it's still working and what is rating agencies saying that a lack of a majority for any party in the election is sound for ng negotiations what's your
take on should we expect another. oh we will have another election that's the last thing the conservatives will not going to do anything to have another election . less than majorities will have no twenty to the twenty seven. candidate so your prime ministers of all of the european partners like them and an overall majority of the posts of coalition government the prime minister and was held in holland just a few months ago the prime minister won with the media twenty two percent of the vote and he's still trying to put a coalition government together that is so hypocritical of the europeans to say may doesn't have enough through majority i mean in most cases they don't either. does the fact that west ministers in disarray mean brussels will be tough and pushy and that there are some ways promise of a good deal will be that much harder to fail. it will behold the because it will
be more difficult for it to go back to the commons in some kind of emergency announce for the backing of poet of wood on the other hand it does you know the labor party during the election campaign supported exactly the same strategy that the government had to live apart to manifest as the britain should come out of both the single market and the the european customs union. the two parties between them on the same. manifest of pledges for brics a go eighty nine percent of the vote. this is a strong case in saying that the general election produced and there wolf well ming . backing for brics. now possible acts a post trump post lip and german and french leaders are now saying that reform is needed and that changing treaties is possible something that was unthinkable before rex it looked panic cetera but passing those was
a huge pain and getting all the member states to agree it will probably be just as difficult and they just bluffing to appease here are skeptical voters well none of the bluffing to you're a pro european voters i mean most common fronts is produce a program for you know fiscal unity a single european budget a single european taxation system a single european finance minister trying to drum up a kind of qantas strategy to what they see is a european populism but the fact is that most european citizens don't want more integration instead of wanting more europe they want less erupt and so the elite are in danger. of. you know producing a program which the population in europe will reject. so in an interview a while back he told me that a u.k. acts it will cost other exits from the e.u.
that france may leave cetera but so far nobody is leaving in step there are talks over form as breck's it scared european voters into liking the e.u. instead of inspiring them to leave it to a certain extent the propaganda the media propaganda in europe since breaks it has been that you know britain has become a dreadful place and suffered terribly economic a day which isn't true because the economy has done fine since being none specs. however this being a kind of the bund of the european economy to a certain extent. temporary or permanent this is still to be seen. remains a degree the greek tragedy is still playing out. that big balances they'll be in the guys said to the fact is that the italian banks of a very fragile thing could collapse given any kind of political uncertainty in italy this always possibility of
a crisis some wells the migration crisis could. resurrect itself again i don't sing the european union is on to the woods i mean the chances that in the years i'm like collapse the something else might go wrong a very very high although for the moment says if the e.u. stabilised. two three is down the road it may be a very very different question though i remember you saying in the same talk of ours that weird people who are attracted to the euro skeptic costs to end up joining elating it will actually hurt it but is it possible to be a hero or skeptic and not be it where a person as you put it and still have popular appeal. i call remember that. a weird. yeah not i do i like you know people out of ordinary.
refer to the mist. i think i think i probably mean that there were men the there were extremists especially as i'm a phobic is that you're nothing worse. than i am. billed as in holland and people in hungary and people in sweden and certain parts of the phone less not in france. yes but this thing about you know skepticism is that. it's not a united pan-european movement its opponents that the european federalists try to make of this but that's not the case i mean in britain. this ism is led by the conservative party which is the oldest and most traditional party in western europe and everything's done through parliamentary methods and the the we had those in the the two kobe u.k. and sprite said to be totally abandoned by the electorate so britain's very very
different from some of these other countries and in holland and from space so the. electricity reject the we had the if you are skeptics right alan thanks up for this wonderful interview with been talking to alan scott founder of the u.k. independence party professor emeritus at the london school of economics talking about britain's divorce from the european union in light of the latest snap election in the country that's it for this edition of so fan cos the next time. all right armstrong calling more than i'm really hoping. we're going to be your
hosts for the tree thousand and seventy confederations cup right here in russia we're going to be visiting the host cities are sultry presidency great spirit moscow going to be great when i'm told in full of course also politics i think pretty much covering every topic the fans need to know about the head of the match so don't forget to join us on field guide it's going to be full and all of you know . about your sudden passing i've only just learned you were a south and taken your last to bang turn. your at the top to you as we all knew it would i tell you i'm sorry i could so i write these last words in hopes to put to rest these things that i never got off my chest. i remember when we first met my life turned on each breath. but then my feelings started to change you talked about war like it was a game still some are fond of you those that didn't like to question our arc and i
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