tv Boom Bust RT June 28, 2018 8:30pm-9:00pm EDT
boston specific grievances include wages so low workers are compelled to work second jobs in addition to demands on wages and safety workers are also demanding that marriott agree to a policy that any guest who is sexually harassed as an employee must be ejected from the property a mediately they also hope to convince management to equip workers with remote panic buttons persevere threats unite here has pushed a campaign to make consumers aware of the risk for workers who must enter guest room often alone to do their jobs and incidentally a little fact the marriott empire actually began not too far from our studio here in washington d.c. with a nine stool root beer stand all the way back in one nine hundred twenty seven j. willard marriot and his wife alice next opened hotels just across the potomac river in arlington virginia. and as noted oil prices are up seven percent in a week and thirteen percent over the past year prices have not been as high as yesterday's close since twenty fourteen a number of factors may be fueling the surge including reports that mr trump state
department will demand that european allies and all oil imports from iran by november fourth or face u.s. sanctions whether mr trump is affective or not it will certainly irritating offend allies who are already fuming about his decision to sabotage the nuclear agreement with iran brokered with the help from european allies as well as russia and china and while ministers of the organization of petroleum exporting companies opec countries rather opec and others reach an agreement last week to increase production some market watchers clearly think the additional supply may make a difference so for more on this we turn to rajit horner again the futures and currencies expert at simpler trading who joins us from new york rajiv thank you as always for being with us we sure appreciate it highest prices this november twenty fourth ten for. what's with this spike price. this spikes been taking off ever since we saw the opec decision to only increase production by approximately four
hundred to six hundred thousand barrels maybe some upper estimates of eight hundred thousand of course the russians are looking for a million to a million and a half so this is far below that number and oil is taken off like a shot in response to it and a senior state department official said that they expected the other nations will actually cut imports from iran by that november or date and and one do you think that actually will occur and to what might that mean for prices well i'm not looking for complete compliance with zero percent and we're looking for turkey india and china to comply and even if they were to comply to a certain degree i think what we can factor in is probably about a million to maybe a million and a half barrels coming sort of offline if you want to view it that way with the two and a half million barrels per day that iran has out into the marketplace assume a million and a half of it is no longer going to find a home in china or india or turkey so i think this is going to continue to be more
reason for oil to start to head to that magical ninety level and maybe even beyond earlier this week roshi archie spent some time with the russian energy minister and we asked him about oil and i want to play his response and get your reaction on the other side. sort of but the ministerial meeting held in vienna on saturday we agreed to let opec and non opec countries raise output by one million barrels per day and go back to the initial production levels outlined in the december twenty eighth sixteen agreement right now we are exceeding our conformity levels by almost fifty percent and we decided to go back to the original quarters set out in the agreement so that production adjustment would again stand at one point eight million barrels per day instead of two point eight million barrels per day that we have now and so we can increase production by one million barrels right here they probably want to increase all the production they can now that prices are up what do you make of that statement. well if we're going to see that iran may not be
somewhere where china india and turkey can go they'll gladly go to the russians that makes perfect sense of the russians have been against keeping these production cuts and when you look at where oil prices are you know you could probably say there's some justification for it and so ultimately what we're going to find is saudis and russians will probably find a happy medium as long as oil continues to head up saudis will probably still entertain the idea of russia entering opec and as long as we're above seventy to seventy two dollars which we're well above right now there are a ramp to i.p.o. the saudis aramco i.p.o. it's probably fine for another road show at the end of this year and beginning of next i think it's going to be a balance and i think we'll see how long opec will let the russians continue to increase output of course they're only agreement is one as a non opec members so right now it's actually what the u.s. has asked an increase in production you don't want to is so interesting everything you say i want to take half a step back so you know russia as you say not opec member but they were part of
this agreement a couple years ago and they seem to then actually be sort of leading the effort with the saudis going into it but as prices climb did they see the russians that is or did they see you know the u.s. sort of making up for that production cut with shale and everything else we were doing here and the russians saying geez you know we're missing out here is prices are going on i mean now they seem just raring to go is that how you read it or missing something. i think that's definitely a part of it i think the russians now as well as the u.s. even though we have increased shell output out of out of texas the permian basin is absolutely just pumping oil left and right we have no way to actually get it to market as effectively as officially as we need to to become that net exporter that we probably will become even in line or ahead of russia within the next twelve to say eighteen months so really we have an infrastructure problem here and the world knows it so we're actually seeing more abandoned wells drilled but not going to be
utilized and this is actually been a boon for refiners i think there's an interesting story there as well i want to talk with you about better point we also saw the u.s. energy information report yesterday that supplies have actually fallen by nearly ten million barrels how does that play into all of this i mean i suppose it's just a zero sum game right it isn't it's interesting when you see the crude oil drop out and you see the build up expected build up in gas the reserve blends stuck when you see that way the way the seasonal rally the drunk driving season rally has continued to be something that traders are expecting to see these kind of build ups in gas i think refiners are going to continue to be pumping this gas out but this season all that we typically see starting in february has wound down here now in june and july so that that typical buildup that we would see should start to level off but right now refineries are having a blast they're having an absolute field day with the difference between the brant and the w t i spread oh no they love trade thing and you're right in the middle of
it i do want to have you back some time soon and talk about refineries in general and pipelines also horner futures in currencies expert simply trading thanks for your time thank you. and we're going to pause for a quick break but when we get back we'll have my conversation with the author of that up danielle de martino bloop and about the about the all russian a bout the australian economy rather their subtle bank and their close relationship between australia and china plus you go to london to talk market reaction to the trade and tariff conference with name a swamp of think markets as we go to break here are the numbers at the closing bell a green arrows cross the big board first up we'll be right back.
join me every thursday on the alex simon show and i'll be speaking to guest of the world the politics school business i'm show business i'll see you then. right we're all set to start in five yes to nothing to just sit in a house no signal. he's not going to talk about no fly just didn't right after the arse explorers want to do it would have their own unique. record. to say. seek.
out a less room welcome to sophie and tell him so see shevardnadze and today we've got lots to talk about in our program and our guest is move good luck little. originally thought is drastic to get our citizens taken care of our cars just please step leading you to the punch and most of them from a completely different cards i would just. as static. the problem is that we kind of how they stayed within the state they call a nice stable this not part of sweden. not more like the computer kind of man. no no it's not slow stop stop stop stop
the bullshit no go global my culture is christian culture and we don't do things like and we do tell you if you do then we hate you and somebody hopefully you can do something about this stuff. we can not be naive about this. not attract more gangsters rapists and these actually that are tearing down this city. wants to face with this current and long look of the people who live here and i'll to go back. to others but as a final go. when customers go by you're disappointed. in health will reduce and lower. that's undercutting but what's good for the markets is not good for the
global economy. welcome back there is more fallout for india from the smoldering traded terror of conflict between the united states and china yesterday we reported on india's measure diplomatic response to the drama well today currency watchers were noting the rupee's fall as it approaches a record low on wednesday the indian currency closed at sixty eight point six to the dollar the rupee's low record low against the dollar sixty eight point eight was set nearly five years ago along a currency to fall of course as a well known effect and tactic to support exports by making them relatively more affordable in receiving nations with stronger currencies while there's no evidence that the indian policymakers have taken action to cause the slide they are unlikely to make moves to stop it. a raid on the home of an accused former prime minister in
malaysia has yielded a record confiscation of what authorities say are ill gotten goods the raid on the home of not g. brazile who was ousted in may is election result in a seizure of goods valued at two hundred seventy three million dollars including the equal of quibbling of thirty million dollars in cash split among twenty six currencies the head of the royal malaysian police commercial crimes division called the seizure the biggest in malaysian history that same official said the police estimated the value of seized jewelry alone at one hundred nine million dollars allegations of rafik corruption seem to have sunk the former prime minister's reelection bid and police are now focusing on the loss of billions of dollars at the government's key fund for economic development and is a fence the former leaders said it was not uncommon to keep large amounts of cash on hand for political purposes and receiving the gifts while in office was not illegal. british weapons and aerospace corporation systems has landed
a twenty six billion dollar contract with the australian navy was selected over competing companies to build nine anti-submarine frigate frigates the contract is a major boost for the british ambitions to rebuild their stories ship building industry seeming to open the door for british entry into the market for a new generation of warships and also would make british and australian warship highly interoperable as well as affirming historic and cultural ties between the two countries for the pros brecht's it era manufacturable take place in a plant in australia with parts and engineering supplied directly from workers in the u k. and we now move on to the australian economy with our friend danielle de martino booth the author of fed up why the federal reserve is bad for america she's also the new c.e.o. of quill intelligence a danielle congratulations on the new company you know you wrote
a piece in quill as part of your daily feather commentary that really stuck out to a lot of people and in that you wrote about how the australian economy has not had a recession since one thousand nine hundred ninety one that's world lettered for developed nations tell us why that is well you know it's pretty amazing i mean think about that one thousand nine hundred one i could have even said bart google it back then because you would have known what i was talking about twenty seven years is a very long time i think a lot of it comes down to how very prudent the central bank has been in australia the reserve bank of australia has never veered into into the zero interest rate territory into negative interest rates they've never they've never even flirted with quantitative easing buying bonds to prop up the economy so they've relied last on the creation of debt to to to generate prosperity and economic growth that a lot of their developed market counterparts and i think that prudent has paid off
in this world record that you just mentioned again twenty seven years since one thousand nine hundred one so they've operated in a pretty really sort of you know hands off fashion but you also talk about china that they have a pretty unique and symbiotic relationship with china the aussies do right. they absolutely do you know there's the proximity and the fact that australia is so rich in iron ore in anything that you could name that the chinese have consumed has been tremendous for that economy. to to six are mind boggling but like a third of australian exports twice that goes to the great britain united states head straight for china shores and it's not just that the money comes both ways wealthy chinese investors have plunked a ton of money into australian real estate they send their kids to australian
universities it's twenty five percent of australia's tourist revenue comes from chinese visitors to the country so as you brought up the word that i used earlier when i wrote this piece in that it is a very symbiotic relationship and is part of the den you know maybe this may be an elementary question but is part of it just geography and how close the two are. well that certainly is beneficial in terms of mitigating transportation costs but again think of the mining industry in australia there's always going to be and always has been this tremendous demand for what australia exports but then you have china building out something equivalent to the united states industrial revolution which took place over maybe a century's time and they compressed it into twenty five years so it was it had more to do with the rapidity with which china was growing its infrastructure out
and its factory sector out and the fact that australia was there and capable of supplying whatever they had of course that's changing right now and that is opening up the australian economy for the first time in nearly three decades to serious vulnerabilities and those vulnerabilities danielle i mean what how are they going to deal with those i mean you've talked about the central bank but what other challenges today have and how they deal with. well this will present tremendous challenges first and foremost to their housing sector the wealthy chinese people coming in and buying up real estate is wonderful on the upside but when that trend reverses it's absolutely toxic and we know that the major all of the major markets in the australian economy all the major housing markets are nosebleed territory and it's also pushed australian households to borrow more than they can afford in order
to get into housing they're competing with these foreign investors if you can imagine at the peak right before two thousand and seven the financial crisis debt to income here in the united states is about one hundred thirty percent in australia bartok it's pushing one hundred and ninety percent households are very vulnerable to what's to come and danielle i want to before we leave i want to ask you about something you wrote in your i guess the daily commentary piece and in the daily feather on another trip topic regarding trade and i want to ask is sort of hard to tell at this point what impact the trade and terrible war may be having but what should we be looking at as any early economic indicators and what should we consider to be sort of benchmarks for judging future success or maybe not success. well we're going to have five hundred examples coming at us with both barrels loaded pretty soon the minute we see this next earnings report start start to
happen and we will hear c.e.o.'s and c.f.o. of those wailing and lamenting about increasing input prices how much more raw materials are costing them and the fact that it is squeezing their profit margins bart if if companies cannot pass along those price increases that they're stomaching to end users to consumers they will have no choice in the face of spiking inflation they will have no choice but to push through layoffs so there's a it's a cycle bart and if you have companies that have profits that are going down they won't stand for that nor will their shareholders and they will find an alternative way to cut costs and that's a nice elegant way of saying layoffs that's what can be building down the pipeline i think that that is where some of the anxiety in the bond market is reflecting. as we look out into the second half of this year you know we spoke about that with you the other day in a very very insightful i will be looking at these numbers danielle just last saying
you know we do get your daily feather here at the office and appreciate it where can people find the you and quill intelligence it's pretty easy it's quill intelligence dot com guide on the range i haven't even had a subscription model for a month now and it is going gangbusters so new york stock exchange floor readers from all over the world it's doing really really well thank you for mentioning that part well it's always nice to see a friend of the show do well danielle de martino both the author of fed up why the federal reserve is bad for america and the c.e.o. of quill intelligence thanks andy. thank you. whole world is watching with bated breath it looks like the u.s. is moving forward into a major trade war with rivals and allies alike the trip administration's roiled
markets by threatening and then backtracking on various restrictions just yesterday mr trump dropped the idea of blocking china's ability to invest in the technology sector but what kind of effect does this have on markets globally joining us from englewood as they must long the chief market analyst for think markets named thank you for joining us we really appreciate it you know we know that here in the u.s. the dow has been moving up and down and we looked at the other day we covered the asian markets were seem to be tumbling but where are we on global markets generally and what or how are they reacting to these sort of trade tantrums. thanks for having me but if you allow me i'm just going to comment on what you said earlier and it's a big that yes u.s. always somehow better and chinese it makes me into u.s. companies but remember we have another major stop another major in a way to market one of our rising which is your ice your market initial point offering and the blocking technology so even if the u.s.
say is that ok china cannot invest in the u.s. technology that expect the whine because china has many other opportunities on its doorstep but it getting involved into that now the answer to your question precisely i think trade is massively. underestimating the entire impact of this war because what we see is that once top makes an announcement whether it is through his special back then i don't eat with it or we see a big panic in the market but then treat this as to shake off all these concerns because they know a trump isn't going to do this full blown play of war it is more of a tactic or so hence the things becomes an. comes back to normality and what happens is that you seek becomes an opportunity you know i'm glad you said that it was as certainly as a dissident also wanted to ask you name so you know i just wonder if you know mr
trump i know you're not like a u.s. political analyst but you watch politicians all over the world i just wonder if there is any deal with china or with mexico or canada if there's really any deal that mr trump might support or perhaps as he positioning himself more politically as a you know a friend of the working person and you know all of this which just seems to isolationists to me but is there any deal that you think this president might accept my. it's very difficult to say. that he is the king of making deals right but we haven't seen anything which is all it all of which in other words is going to be really food i have to yield for the u.s. economy long term the key is the longer term in a short time you may see some victuals job. in manufacturing but in the long that these trade wars. that's the route that is taken it is an
extremely issue can be dangerous traffic. well ok so let me ask another thing so let's let's consider the fact that traders you know they they they bet on the come they bet on you know innuendo and in the stock market not on insider trading but in the market i used to regulate they base it on almost anything a secret something they hear in the wind the smell of something they're always out there and they're trying to be ahead for the next thing they want to get that little alpha that they can get and so normally if you'd have an announcement of a government with the possibility of a trade a quarter or something but everybody would trade on that thing my question to you i am is if there is some announcement of it and some trade accord let's say with china will market participants go ahead and invest like they traditionally have or will they say it doesn't mean anything we've seen this before mr trump will back
away from the deal how will they react to a potential deal with china. i think. china would actually be a good idea if that happened because that would need that element of uncertainty. or a cheese from traded stocks red. flashing at all times that was. more so i think from a global trading. back a it would be said to me a very good idea if anything along those lines and when we look at these markets like shanghai and shen then and then. the three hundred composite over there that have taken a downturn recently do we think that's only temporary and or is this you you wonder if it's a trend that will continue for the next several months or until this thing gets turned around the trade war that is i think.
it is that. i would think it is the time but i think it's making over in china and also most importantly in the u.s. it's because. they have so they hate us for the for the growth slowed more than estimated and the main reason behind it because can do you miss bending over. is nearly five years. that is the kind of a trend if we had built up but it isn't the us in china that we would be a big correction along now you must want to chief market analyst for think marcus is always wonderful to have you and your expertise on the show thanks name. thank you. and before we go on a programming note we will be joined by chris martin says
a peak prosperity dot com to talk precious metal tomorrow you're not going to want to miss this and that's it for this time thanks for watching you can always catch boom bust on direct t.v. channel three twenty one dish network channel two eighty four streaming twenty four seven on pluto t.v. the free t.v. app channel one thirty two you can always find us at youtube dot com slash boom bust r.t. later. in the heart of the swiss alps this is a place probably more secretive than the pentagon moma stereos than the cia and better god than forty six swiss customs are here permanently all the science is controlled by them and they imposed the opening time so it was it it was
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russia and the u.s. confirming that the first official meeting between donald trump invited me and will take place on july sixteenth in helsinki. e.u. leaders hold a summit in brussels amid stark disagreements on how to handle the migrant crisis. and belgium beat england on day fifteen of the world cup as the group stage comes to an end. to our broadcast. this is our team international i'm sean thomas certainly glad to have you with us washington and moscow have announced that the first.