tv Sophie Co RT November 23, 2018 10:30pm-11:00pm EST
the blacks in turmoil. the draft. cabinet. member of the european parliament. along with. members of her own trying to pull the rug from under the fisa. through political will sweep the british pm away and what happens if. the new deal breaks. well and that most number of the european parliament welcome to the show great to have you with us so the draft. exit deal that is currently all going to be here
thank you on the table it seems to offer too few new ties to please remain nurse and not enough independence for hero to please to leavers is it a working compromise or does only serve to annoy everybody. roner amazing that the british government have managed to do something that satisfies absolutely nobody. like it and most of the leaves like it including me for whatever that is worth. the key point about it is that forget about a compromise or no compromise it's not going to get through the house of commons. on today's arithmetic anyway so is the european union interested in a speedy by the end of this week resolution to the question of the deal i do think make can push for it and brussels threatening and no deal scenario in case the deal doesn't pass to vote. well well as i understand it mrs may is
in the british prime minister mrs may is in brussels going to see mr. explaining to him he's a very intelligent man by the way he gets a bad press explaining to him that the deal as it's presently constituted will not get through the british house of commons and therefore can he please make some sort of adjustments to enable him to do say sorry to enable her to do so. now having said all that that's the context now the european union has got a terrible terrible record of being completely rejected completely intransigent and completely unhelpful to member states where the party members say but all member states which have got problems we're seeing that with its lead now and i suspect that yet again this is way is going to come away with absolutely nothing. and then there will be a no deal no i rather favor no deal which isn't a no deal it's
a deal on the world trade organization rules because you can ask me about that a little bit later on what happens if it doesn't go through that first time around well it be the fall off their estimate. well. you know you're asked me what's going to the british house of commons so basically this is just a prediction but if he doesn't go through the first time round they can bring it up a second time and it might have a shot at getting through a second time but there would have to be some modifications to it and people aren't stupid i mean people are stupid is as the order commission thinks that people are and and any modifications have to be real they can't just be little phony false modifications so to stand a chance of the. the the deal i just dislike the word deal the draft agreement through the house of commons it has to be modified and modified in a realistic and material and substantial way so it's a key can the european union wait that long until this goes through the first time
and then. just a renegotiated and go through the second time or maybe not can the e.u. waiter or wait around. well well well the fact is that the u.k. is not leaving the until march twenty ninth so that's really quite a long time in addition the british british. system is such that it can actually react pretty quickly so they could probably have it they could probably put put it up at least twice in december. the real point is not about the e.u. waiting it's about the e.u. being a bit realistic i mean they've imposed these these this carthaginian peace they've created a sort of a new a new versailles treaty on the u.k. and it isn't going to stick. sorry either she won't get through the house of commons and even if it did it won't stick for any probable period of time. so says
you're pretty and have kind of small themselves i mean i'll just say the important point about it getting through the house of commons there are fifty six conservative m.p.'s who have already publicly stated that they're going to vote against it now they might whittle it down a bit to about forty but it's not the consider impeach we're going to vote against it which is the point the point is the labor party is going to vote against it it looks at the democratic unionist will vote against it and all the opposition party will vote against it so it's about forty or fifty votes short of passing even on even on the most favorable education for your hand ejections if what you're saying happened so so so is. what you're saying happens and the comments fail mail stale. will there be a second referendum on bracks. well i think that this i think that there certainly shouldn't be because we've already had a referendum and also the european union has got the most appalling record of not
accepting referendums for instance in everything but all of the moment well olen voted against the lisbon lisbon treaty and they were made to vote again until they as it were came out with the what. putting in and a saw as being the right answer i mean is this a tennis match i mean do we have the best of best of three like in. women's championship tennis do we have it maybe best of five like we have it in in. men's international tennis i mean all that stuff with a so-called second referendum this is this is been a plan cooked up by a variety of people who were there a great deal better who didn't accept the result of the first referendum in the first place and are trying to reverse it by fair means or foul and a second referendum is simply follow it absolutely stinks and i very much hope that the british house of commons stops being so elitist recognize the referendum
and just throws this concept of a sucker and are absolutely still out out out completely it makes no sense at all and it's profoundly our anti democratic rights to call it a people's vote because which is which is what people do is the worst kind of mid is is is the worst kind of mislabeling if it was advertising it will be had up so if we get back to the main maze line is that a bad deal is better than no deal at all do you think face argument could maybe help her push to deal as it is through the house of commons well first of all you're kind enough to interview me so i can't resist giving you my own view which is a new deal is much better than a bad deal and no deal is actually a misnomer it's very misleading way of describing things a no deal simply means that we we would continue that we would trade under world trade organization terms so-called w w t o terms just as just as
six of the ten biggest exporters to the european union do eleven of the of the top twenty because aig. exposure they were bringing you to the old to new today so basically as i see it i'm presently just give my import point of view and i'll give you my opinion but later as i see it the british government and the british establishment and. mrs may have looked themselves up into his styria about so-called no deal which is so incredibly misleading as i just said in so doing they've allowed the european union to impose completely draco nian terms on the u.k. which won't last anyway which parliament will not let go through but no deal of the people should go away and think again but the no deal which you believe is better than may's deal which is seen by many as the ultimate doomsday scenario with no
food and other supplies running short and flights grounded from your perspective how likely is this outcome at the current stage. well i mean that there is a consensus in the house of commons against the new deal but i just have to say that what you just said was you were quoting people in criticizing you is frankly complete rubbish actually it's complete rubbish from beginning to end on his own part of the of the fear scenario which the british have with which the british have sought to frustrate the will of the british people from the very beginning we heard all this rubbish from the referendum and we're just hearing more of the say. very now i mean the transitional period is supposed to last till the end of two thousand and twenty but can't be it can't be extended under the current u.k. and to do so does this leave an open window for the negotiations to last forever. yes i think it probably does. i mean first of all to have
a transition period is very sensible and certainly i think that by the way however the disadvantages of of a very long transition towards looking at now is number one exact his you stated negotiations should should just go go all the normal. and you know it's a bit like an exam if there's no deadline there's no real incentive for things to have a finish the other point which is a practical point is is a zion the stand is the u.k. would continue to pay into the european budget at the very large that was which we're paying paying in throughout the transition period so long the transition period mean means payments a longer period of payments into the budget and of course that was the reason why we wanted to leave in the that was one of the reasons why people voted to leave. we're going to take a short break right now and when we're back we'll continue talking to will. member of the european parliament discussing the draft agreement of withdrawal from the.
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and we're back with william doris member of european parliament talking about the u.k.'s troubled divorce from the european union the irish question since to pose an unsolvable problem for london i mean the e.u. and the u.k. are seemingly in sign up to the idea of no hard border between the republic of violent and nor the land or the nile and at least under the current draft do that my force u.k. to stay in the european customs union how is that compatible with the idea of breck's it and britain's. well it is of course highly incompatible
with the idea of brooks's and you have to put your finger on it still it's highly. incompatible with the union of the new of the united kingdom the united kingdom is a union between england scotland wales and northern ireland so. it's incompatible and that's why the democratic unionist didn't like it but i'd like to make a slightly different points or just to share with you. a couple of basic facts the facts is that. already at the moment as we speak the irish buda the border between us and the other republic of ireland it's already a taxation border it's already a v. a t. border it's already an excise border it it's already and it's already a currency buda they have different currencies and. without having a hard border without having a hard border in addition to that since nine hundred twenty one there's never been
a hard border in northern ireland even the time of all the troubles there were military checkpoints but it wasn't a hard border with in a barbed wire and search sites and. people with dogs the whole matter of the irish border which was never discussed in the referendum not even by the common government which was which which just gracefully disgracefully in my view was completely one sided. is in my view simply a trap that was set up by the european union negotiators which the british government have full right into and all these british government civil servants they simply don't know what they're doing the whole lot of them should the whole of them shouldn't be should never be allowed near any negotiation again not even to buy a flat for themselves but their estimate was not a warrior to start with even before the referendum do you think her personal convictions i mean be. kolta the idea in general are playing a role in her decision to bring forth
a soft agreement well. obviously. i mean i can't speak for mrs may state state of mind but what i can say in terms of hard evidence is that mrs may made a speech in lancaster house some months ago which was which was very statesman like spells out everything and would have made the terms of which which which has been called for then would have made a lot of sense since then she's just completely reneged on them completely renee for them and this is this point will be made with great clarity by the former secretary boris johnson actually in his resignation speech so why she's done this why she attempted to bunch her cabinet into into these known known agreements which entirely in the middle and against the british national interest is in fact rather mysterious because i get this is the second time this happened she tried to balance the men into she tried to balance a cabinet into agreement checkers the so-called checkers proposals which died
a death actually because the orphan commission would wouldn't accept them and she's trying to balance a cabinet into these proposals. so what her state of mind is i really don't know but what i can say is that the we in the u.k. . absolutely rotten set of negotiators. and the irish border. is just a trap that was laid it does it shouldn't it should amount to anything any sense of goodwill could actually get around this i mean one point is that ninety percent of the exports and imports between the north but you know that holland and the republic of public of island go by sea anyway we're talking about a tiny tiny tiny. in really in the context the british economy which is a two and a half trillion pound economy we're talking about tiny a tiny. we just simply isn't material should and shouldn't be allowed to
become an issue in the way in which it is so one of the major themes in the debate was to issue of immigration and asked their estimate puts it the draft means europeans would no longer be able to skip the line while britain would finally have all the say on who gets to say at least after the transition period that is is the draft on immigration delivering what rock city or is wanted on this front. well i would put it slightly differently i would put it slightly differently. what the argument was really about was sovereignty was the u.k. a sovereign nation or not one of the manifestations of sovereignty is being able to have immigration controls now than the immigration because don't forget that any e.u. member states. any e.u. with the citizens of any member state have the absolute right to live work and
settle in another member state and we made the u.k. a very attractive country for our people to come to and literally millions millions of people have and in a very short space of time so of course it was an issue as far as this agreement is concerned. a lot of us don't trust to reason about anything and probably not on this either but on the face of it this is one of the slightly less bad aspects of it it does seem and put it in the relation to her speech that we will be able to have some control control about immigration but this is a really cited journey is called a backlash and the important thing is that the prime minister stands firm against the immigration junkies in the confederation bridge industries. and the mass forces of of the immigration lobby which is very very strong in the u.k. so the u.k. has a growing trade deficit with the e.u.
but its trade with. pretty much the rest of the world seems to be way more balanced that said how difficult would it be to double down on that if they transition period if it effectively prevents the u.k. from seeking its own trade deals and when it finally gets to working on those how long will they take to sign and negotiate. well. that's actually a great question but but it's actually worse than that forgetting where the transition third as far as i can make eyes and i have a background in trade as friends i make can make out this agreement doesn't commit to so long as we remain in the customs union which seems to be pretty open ended. we are not able to enter into trade agreements of our own on our own account no you don't have to be able to you don't have to have a trade agreement in order to be able to trade i mean for example there has never been a trade agreement between the united states and the u.k.
but there is tremendous. tens of hundreds of billions worth of trade which goes between the two countries but having said that the ability to have trade agreements and to have the ability to have you to be able to enter into trade agreements is obviously very advantageous and one of the huge fools of the may agreement is that this race is impossible for the foreseeable future. so let's take a quick quote you put your finger on it let's take a great question if i may say so thanks so let's take a look at the other side of the deal the e.u. doesn't seem to be losing too much in case the current draft deal goes forth while that's hardly the case for the u.k. how it london sales so hard at negotiating and more favorable deal i mean can anything more balance be worked out during the transition period with a foundation like this. well i mean our own current form the un says no i mean this is a. this is a bit like you know you're setting up
a for race horses for or something and you say is is is this who's going to win the kentucky derby suddenly i mean i really can't see that the british government being able to come up with anything very much better now in theory in theory there is an opportunity to renegotiate after the this period of time is over but a bridge comes you'll be right negotiations and be their abilities and your shit is very much circumscribed and limited by the agreement. i mean i'm very pessimistic i'm looking forward to being optimistic i'd like to be optimistic i'm an optimistic person. but i'm sunk in pessimism on this front have to say so you think the e.u. is trying to not only secure its financial interest but also sort of. have a bit of vengeance in the u.k. for live in the projects. yes i think so and i think that the e.u. commission has been determined to administer a punishment beating to use
a phrase it's been used before and the the council ministers and the member states should have stopped them but they don't seem to be doing that i mean to the just if you want to in the indication the u.k. is the largest importer by volume of cars and motor vehicles made in germany. you know where we only important market for the e.u. and incidentally we run a ninety six billion sterling deficit in goods with the you so when the ridiculous situation of paying to have access to a market and which we have a gigantic deficit the deficit we have is roughly equivalent france for example the entire. economy of gonna. just give you one sort of indication of it. you know the british government you know have mishandled the have actually mishandled the entire thing very simply put and are they going to how
do they better probably not simply flee how does that draft agreement affect the regular folks out there and their wallets what price will britons have to pay for whatever independence the country and that getting. and i've written a book about it. to read it but i ever written a book about it. that the best deal available for us from the european union is to leave without an agreement and to continue to trade. to trade with your opinion on world trade organization just as just as china the united states and indeed russia do today and the three biggest exporters to the european union are china russia and the united states that have trade agreements that his that is what i think. that is what i think we should do the government do it i don't know but
the fact that this agreement this draft agreement will not get through the house of commons does give people an opportunity to have a second of it but there is a mass hysteria about not going out without an agreement and i think you mentioned some of the things in your question. so who knows what and who knows what's going to happen but i'll tell you i'm i'm i'm very pessimistic i'm a small pessimistic for the e.u. because the they don't gain anything they don't get anything very much by by humiliating a country that wants to leave. in the long term. in the short term makes their negotiating. thank you very much for your outlook and for your insights on whatever awaits britain. that's for this program we're talking to will and darkness number of european parliament discussing the uncertainties surrounding the. i'll see you next.
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