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tv   Boom Bust  RT  December 4, 2018 5:30am-6:00am EST

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this is boom bust broadcasting around the world and covering the big world of business and finance that the impact on all of us i'm part children washington thank you so much for being on board we're sure glad to have you coming up today there is lots of news and a heck of a lot of it relates to trade so we are going to focus on trade from both the perspective of u.s. agriculture and companies and look not just at china trade tensions but at the mexico canada circumstances to do so we'll be joined by steve walz bird ellen smile a big shift and danielle plus cutter is leaving the organization of petroleum extorting countries our two producers aventura will tell us what that means all that directly ahead let's go. a moment of modest progress on trade that almost feels like a breakthrough leads our global report today as the leaders of china and the united
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states postpone any further escalations other lingering dispute at the meeting on the edges of the g twenty summit in boito sorry's argentina the agreement between u.s. president donald trump and chinese president xi jinping appears to effectively trade a postponement on the u.s. side of an increase tariff on chinese imports from ten to twenty five percent which was to begin on january first for a pledge from china to buy more american products president trump as usual was eager to fill the void of specifics on the deal with personal puffery and unfounded claims on twitter of imminent major benefits from the deal for farmers who have lost major chinese market share chinese authorities notably declined to confirm the claims in mr trump's tweet moving forward u.s. trade representative robert light hisor who has taken a harder line in contrast to treasury secretary steve i'm a new mission we're portably be the point person for further negotiations with china. and some have questioned if this is just a delay or
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a period of time when something could actually be done and negotiated here's what u.s. treasury secretary had to say on the subject i think there is a specific understanding that we're going to now turn the agreement that the two presidents have into a real agreement over the ninety days obviously some of the issues are are going to need to be phased in some of the issues may need more detailed work but the idea is there will be a real agreement and as i've said this is the first time there was a commitment from china that the agreement will include a specific date specific target specific action items this is not going to be just kicking the can down the road when you want something that's good to hear and here to discuss is conservative commentator our friend steve malzberg hastie first of all the deal on only appears from the chinese side at this point to be they're going to buy some stuff at some point i mean there is that claim from secretary
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newsham that when they get to the deal after this ninety days that there will be some specifics but at this point it looks like they're just saying yeah we'll work towards a deal am i missing something here. no i mean we've gotten two very different pieces of information donald trump today most recently tweeted out that china has agreed to end the tariffs of forty percent tariff on cars coming into his country from the united states then you had larry kudlow a bit little bit later on saying there's no firm agreement on that there's no details and as you mentioned we got over the weekend we got not just from donald trump but from the the you know the united states side if you will who was at the g. twenty the people around trump who said that china's going to buy a massive amount of products to shorten and lessen the massive trade deficit that the u.s. has the agricultural products right away and then industrial products and energy
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products as well we also heard that in all which is such a big deal here in the united states because of the opioid crisis that you know which callet of the comes in illegally from china would be classified as a controlled substance in china and anybody sending it to the u.s. would be punished severely but again china says no we have we have no details we have no agreement on any of these things so i don't know who to believe in and i have to think there's something in the works but maybe china is hesitant to label specifics at this point and steve i want to play a quick clip from jacob parker he's the vice president of china operations at the u.s. china business council check it out. both sides of recognize the trade war harms all parties involved particularly in the united states the tariffs of harm to american farmers american consumers and the businesses that are involved both in exporting products from china and also those that have upstream imports from the united states and steve what do you make of that i mean is there just a growing frustration in the party administration they got to do something and so
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they were willing to sort of push this down the road a little bit and try to get a deal what are your thoughts well i think donald trump had a strategy all along and he has showed that he's not afraid to say we're not ready back in september at one point he said you know what i'm just not ready to talk to china and do a deal now things have changed since then and he took this opportunity meeting the president china one on one to say let's get this done let's that we need you you need us so i think everything is a strategy i just don't think trump's afraid i think he campaigned on believing that he really believes that it's core that china has been ripping us off for a so many years and he has to go down in history as the president who changes that well we wish him all the all the luck hey steve hang with us for him just a little bit when i get to another one of the spinning plates in our global trade circus of the day after signing of a renegotiated version of the north american free trade agreement or nafta mr trump threatened to cancel the original agreement and as he departed from r.j.
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argentina mr trump told reporters i will be terminated nafta shortly canceling the original version of nafta would leave mr trump u.s. mexico canada agreement we told you about the other day the system on rebranding in that as the only option on the table to preserve anything close to the status of a north american trade as we know it if mr trump follows through on his words a big if to be sure he would effectively force the u.s. congress which seems unlikely increasingly unlikely to approve it as democrats are going to control to either accept it or rewrite as is. the nafta really a rewrite nafta which is expected to spiral without a replacement let's go to canada and bring in our alex my hell of it alex some in congress are going to be led by democrats are not too pleased with the president and this new agreement there's a chance we might see a battle for this thing to be ratified the worst case scenario is no deal which would send us back to those preen nafta days what would that look like. from stress
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and my way or the highway to congress congress doesn't look like they're flinching at all that and it's not only the democrats there are it's also republicans or holding back and we're saying you know what this still doesn't work for us as it is we want to see some other things inclement sit here like for example the labor force in mexico they want to see some changes without a strengthening of requirements etc so you know the little things they might be asking for a white house or said you know those things are going to change very much but there is a little bit of room for negotiation trump with the funny thing what he said he's basically said can these the congress can choose between the united states mexico canada agreement or pre nafta which works very well now doesn't work very well that's the big question pre nafta to canadians it means we go back to our free trade agreement which was nine hundred ninety three up to that point that we had with the united states but i don't think that's what donald trump is talking about and whatever
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happens he'd want to renegotiate whatever agreement would have to be in place he probably wants something new not really pre nafta and even if you're looking at that if you're looking at nafta being ripped apart you're looking at all three countries getting hit and these are tariffs that we're talking about three point five percent average for the u.s. four point two percent for canada seven point one percent for mexico the canadian g.d.p. some analysts say would drop by two point five percent and what does that mean we probably see job losses across the board the whole system the infrastructure that we've built the supply chain you know it's a ready to stabilize because all the talk has been happening since these nafta to go she began since the tariffs went up so nothing good really could come out of it let's bring steve back a decade and steve what's your take on the u.s. canada and mexico circumstances as they are right now well you know every every one of the countries has to approve it it's not just the united states all the legislatures involved the three of them have to approve it as far as this agreement
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you know and as far as the u.s. not being happy you could have. people way on the left the democrats now control the house and they're going to hold out for more environmental regulations and more stipulations regarding labor but i think it's a good deal some of the high points for car manufacturers and workers the percentage of parts that have to come from north american companies the percentage of workers that have to make over sixteen dollars an hour you have the u.s. farmers getting access to dairy farmers getting access to the canadian market more access and the steel and aluminum tariffs remain in place that the u.s. imposed so i think you know from a u.s. stand standpoint trump didn't get everything he wants but i think it's a pretty good deal and i think this could be a lot of pressure on democrats and republicans to get this done hey alex i want to ask you sort of a goofy question you know there is this issue with the name you know it's not nafta anymore it's a u.s. canada mexico a greek agreement i mean why is this such a big deal why not just continue to call it nafta or nafta to what you just said
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was what trump is calling it it's not what everybody else is calling it so everybody's got a name for it it seems and canada has its name the u.s. doesn't sort of mexico and trump thinks that what you just said is actually has the best ring to it but not justin trudeau just trudeau who has a very different name for it he's basically calling it the new nafta and then we have the canadian ministry of global affairs there say it's the candidate us mexico agreement and then you have in mexico they did a little poll to see on twitter who do the people want there and that would be called team bank so everybody's got a different name for the exact same agreements could be interesting to see how that plays out. hold through this with a log as i put my money on donald trump it's probably going to go his way hey alex just real real quick thirty seconds give me your grade for the president so far on trade and why thirty seconds you know i think we just heard some really interesting points there from steve and that is that whatever the democrats do now is probably going to go into effect into our pockets of the canadians and mexicans what they
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wanted in the first place. there's a lot more environmental stipulations a lot more protection for the labor force things that the rest of the people enough the other the donald trump and his group wanted to see happen so that actually works in our favor what has arnold trump done so far he's basically taken us way back with tariffs and i think he's just bringing us back to point a maybe a little bit better hey steve real quick professor what's your grade and why. well you know i think this nafta is a big deal i think in china i think i think his strategy is going to work it's going to pay off you know let me point out china largest manufacturers of cars they want in our market within two years so they need us as well and truck knows this i think it gets of be so far and i almost expected an a but i thank you for your candid assessment but i think steve wallace we're going to alex mileage thanks guys appreciate it thank you. and the oil minister of qatar is coming from the gulf state will leave opec alter will leave the gulf state the part
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of the organization of petroleum exporting countries speaking in doha to head of the opec meeting scheduled for december sixth the minister said their departure reflects a desire to focus on natural gas rather than petroleum the production record confirms that shift as carter now reportedly accounts for less than two percent of total opec production the minister also clearly reference cutters strained relations with neighbor oil major saudi arabia explaining quote we are not saying we are going to get out of the oil business but it is certainly controlled by an organized managed and managed by a country saudi arabia has tried to isolate cutter in recent years with a regional boycott over the lack of the nation's cooperation with saudi arabia's regional agenda and here with morris is producer. we're so glad to have you on this stuff you know it so well so is this a big deal that carter is leaving opec well prior to the tire is a very small country actually one of the smallest countries in the world as size of
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connecticut and dad but it's also a sale. as make tar one of the richest countries in the world their energy minister has said this has nothing to do with geopolitics and all to do with their countries strategy which is to concentrate on liquefied natural gas now they're their supplier forty percent of the world's supply of liquefied natural gas and that's where they want to concentrate on in terms of oil could tar has only supplied about two percent of the world or as output so oil is not their strategy right now and what they really want to do is concentrate on l.n.g. so in terms of them exiting opec is it a huge deal you know it's really not because they're not that significant and the other sort of you know eight hundred pound gorilla i mean there's always russia there's a saudis and the u.s. are the major producers so russia and the saudis said they're into a production coming up here but it really depends upon what the rest of opec says right that's right this week that is all but opec has become
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a different kind of club now it's been led by saudi arabia and russia they basically make the decision it's almost like russia's member. you know they're not a fish and exactly they no longer can sell countries like iran so they make the decisions with russia saudi arabia does and then they hope to bring the other countries along now in terms of oil prices right now with october hitting all time high about eighty six now being about sixty dollars a barrel is very important right now because gold going to be in this coming week is to talk about production cuts which saudi arabia and russia have agreed so that's going to be there because this gusher will keep watching for you and you're talking about the bric price in europe being the price has big beating around fifty dollars dipping below a couple of times has not ordered them going up and that could change soon with these production cuts that could go back up well have to see we hope you'll help us out maybe wednesday or thursday sometimes when i say have a good producer or if you think you are of course. can't tell you after
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a quick break but hang here because when we return we'll be joined by. simpler training again peter schiff of euro pacific capital to talk stocks and their rebound on the news of the trade war groups plus will there be a set of cause rallies past as we go to break here the numbers of. fashion back into play.
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you know we have all the one player industry in there setting prices and there's no more market setting the prize market failure and you have what happened to you know you ironically the soviet union now russia is moving toward where america was the one nine hundred fifty s. with more like i care eisenhower and now you've got the current administration moving towards soviet union behaving more like you know russia. is finding this out the need. in our eyes to hold the power but. yes it is tied to how do you have. to employ them to go to. the other third the most the most the host u.d.m.a. job if you've got them for you who has a funny. and
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right down the. thank you if you look on the baseball card chemical eyes and hands our this is going to those he would get out in the street to make their international monsters know that these industries out of when you think you're a dissenter mean ignoring. their mother the nothing else and the mother doesn't like the last name of this. god what about the.
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welcome back the yellow vest protests rocking france are threatening to become a full scale political crisis performer investment banker and their president over there french president mandel mccrone on just their third weekend of action the largely leaderless protest against fuel taxes taxes and other cost of living increases escalated to a new level up with militants involved with over one hundred people injured in paris alone partisans on the left and right hoping to co-opt the event were present among the crowds as well as looters which stole from many local businesses but my gosh the chaos on the cobblestones only seem to underscore a sense of the situation is increasing. the dangerous and unpredictable the french
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prime minister met with yellow vest representatives today and says a response to their grievances are for company and the french interior minister still says the president may yet to be compelled to declare a state of emergency. corporate media consolidation continues as the next star media group owner of the second largest chain of u.s. broadcast television stations will move to acquire tribune media company for four point one billion dollars with regulatory approval the deal would fall next door next hour ahead of rival sinclair business group broadcast group rather to become the largest us t.v. chain station sinclair made their own similarly priced bid for tribune in recent months but that deal ran aground over regulatory challenges ending in mutual lawsuits between sinclair and tribune sinclair was also in the news in recent days for another of their infamous must carry commentaries for all seventy three stations in which a former trump
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a defended the use of tear gas against families seeking a media news in the fight for market share in the music streaming business as major tech player ten cent of china says their music entertainment group is planning a billion dollar i.p.o. initial public offering ten cent music which currently claims eight hundred million monthly users says in their official paperwork they expect to raise as much as one point two three billion dollars in the i.p.o. and hope for a valuation of around thirty billion dollars ten cents big move follows spotify is plans we told you about last week to move into india. and with the nebulous temporary trade agreement in which china says they will buy more u.s. agriculture and agriculture related goods what are average investors to do join us discuss our peter schiff the c.e.o. and cheap global strategist of your pacific capital and danielle shay the director of options at simpler trade and welcome to you both guys we know some u.s. commodities know to. billy beane's have lost major market share to china and have
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been prices have suffered seriously but what about companies which could see some benefits as a result of what's going on and are there some that could make some major moves peter you first. well first of all the only benefit that we're going to have is to the extent that trump completely backs down and walks away from the trade war because all he's done right now is the lay the day of reckoning and he basically he was threatening to punch everybody in the face on january first and now he's saying well i may hold off on punching you for another ninety days so you know the only benefit that people derive is the fact that trump backs down but you know ultimately i think that he doesn't really understand the dynamics here as america has benefited at the expense of china because we've been getting these huge trade deficit we get to consume all these things that we don't have to pay for but there are certain american exports like the farmers who have been doing
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a lot of business with china and you know they could get caught in the crossfire here but what we need is more exports to china but the chinese the chinese government can't force the chinese consumers and chinese companies to buy american products what americans have to do is make the products that the chinese want to buy that's the only way that they're going to export well they may be able to force them to buy beans and stuff but you're right about the other products and i hope you're wrong about the verdict about the punching in the face after another ninety days i fear you might be right but i hope you're wrong danielle what do you think i mean is there something really practical danielle that investors could do now given the current state of circumstances. yes well first of all looking at the bands and looking at soybean futures and i am seeing a lot of consolidation on the weekly and daily tyrants leading me to believe that number one from a technical perspective that could send us higher now keep in my. and we are in
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a down trend of course so that as a counter trend bounds but when you combine that with the overall perspective of everything that's going on in the news i do see a potential short term rally at least and to the end of the year in soybeans and i think you know unless or unless you trade soybean futures i think the best way to trade that is going to be through soybean e.t.f. so we corn something like that and are there general overall ag commodities like can you buy. for like all grains or others but are they specific by the commodity did you know. you can just do it specific by the commodity especially if you're not too into it s o y b is a good one but honestly this is really a seasonal trade that's kind of overlapping with the overall political landscape so typically october through december maybe january is generally a good time to do this so the best time to get on it was honestly a couple weeks ago but if you want to look for that next year it'll be
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a good shot and also just keeping in mind the fact that we don't know that trump is actually going that they're actually going to remove these tariffs off the agricultural products so right now we're still in kind of a waiting game period right and peter i want to ask you both but i was looking today at a few of the stocks like john deere and international harvester and caterpillar and they have not been doing well at all i mean even for the last last year and year to date i think maybe in the last year deer is the only one that's up at all but year to date not up i mean if you think they'll be some reprieve even though you think peter the day of reckoning is ultimately coming do you think there might be some reprieve for those stocks in the next couple of weeks or maybe even couple months. well they've probably already had a bouts so i don't know about the next call it may be if i did over like you the last couple days you're right yeah. yeah i think the market is still headed lower
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right. what is ultimately going to have to happen i think to blow some more air back into this bubble it's not just about the fed kind of pulling back on some of the future rate hikes i think it's going to take an actual cut i think the fed's going to have to go back to zero if they want to try to blow more air into the stock market bubble and you know i don't think trump is going to ever follow through with a twenty five percent across the board tariffs i think that's all a bluff eventually will probably take that off the table but i think what's going to ultimately help commodity prices and some of those stocks is going to be a drop in the dollar and in fact i think a precipitous decline in the dollar is coming when traders really understand where the economy is headed which is into a worse recession than the one we had in zero eight zero nine that the fed is not going to keep raising rates that they're going back to zero that they're going to do another round of quantitative easing that's going to be larger than the first three combined and when the dollar really starts to fall that's what's going to
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stoke global demand for all these commodities and then the prices are going to go way up right danielle let me ask you overall about markets i mean we saw markets get a little bit of a bump last week on jay powell sort of more dovish stance not cutting right peter saying but maybe not as many increases next year and then we had this trade news so markets were up a little bit today several hundred points but do you think this continued continue sort of a santa claus rally and we've got the jobs reports coming up we've got the rate increase coming up do you think it continue through the rest of the year or are you skeptical like peter. so honestly i have been pretty bearish this market especially with fang dragging it down but the two copy outs that i put to that were if there was number one some positive news from powell which you know sort of what we got and then number two the second thing that i was looking for was positive news on the trade war now with the truce in play we have been able to break through
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a lot of that overhead resistance in the s. and p. as we did stall today at twenty eight fifteen which was really the last key area that i was looking to get through. but honestly i'm a little bit more hopeful now at least into the end of the year like peter i do agree that next year looking for more of a recession to come but at this point right now i'm looking for a run up into the end of the week based on payroll numbers historically do trade higher into those numbers and potentially if we can break through twenty eight twenty and the s. and p's and then i believe that we can see higher prices but to me that is the line in the sand and if we can't do that then i'm going to look for more downside daniel should peter schiff thank you both so much really interesting conversation appreciate it guys thank you. and that is it for this time thanks for being with us you can catch boom bust on youtube dot com slash both of us r.t. so on for now.
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when a loved one is murder it's natural to seek the death penalty for the murder i would prefer it be when the death penalty just because they think that's the fair thing the right thing research shows that for every nine executions one convict is found innocent the idea that we were executing innocent people is terrifying those just mooned the present and that we want even many of the times families want the death penalty to be abolished the reason we have to keep the death penalty here is because that's what murder victim's families what that's going to give them peace that's going to give them justice and we come in saying. not quite enough we've
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been through this this isn't the way. the ways of the united states is dangerous for most of the illegal immigrants. just as they look up. sympathy i want you. and i want the last but i have many of them look for refuge in the so-called sentries sides of the draft used to share
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information about undocumented migrants with federal authorities. grass bank. where. they have water they are options to stay in the country with donald trump in the white house over forty gravels. the. old sets it struggles of many couples. the push to put impulse response both of you out to appear with all of the. headlines in our day president trombones there is an uncontrollable price between the u.s. china and russia it comes just a few months after he boosted the pentagon's budget precisely to counter moscow and beijing.


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