tv Boom Bust RT October 3, 2019 8:30am-9:01am EDT
actually i assume tumble to more than a decade low sparking fears that a recession may now be unavoidable as a fallout from the china u.s. trade war has now spread historically equity returns are the worst when the ira's and manufacturing drops from levels below the 50 threshold what's even more concerning now though are the details of the print new orders employment and production they were all either soft or have to tear it even further only 3 of the 18 industries in the survey reported growth the lowest figure since 2009 adding to the bad news european companies are set for their worst quarterly earnings in 3 years the latest data lifted the fed's fund rates futures sharply with the november contract now pricing in an 80 percent chance that the fed will cut interest on 30th in monetary terms and looks like we are at a race to the bottom of the e.c.b. have we introduced q.e. at $20000000000.00 euros per month the r.b.a. cut $25.00 bits again the p.b. o.c. is now pledging to get rates lower and meanwhile the fed remains
a laggard in this entire rate cycle their funding stresses in the repo market that are not going away and now we have just witnessed vision literally detonating overnight destroying confidence in all similar v.c. ventures and capital and liquidity are now scarce and getting scarcer we are now in the quad witching hour with the nasdaq below the 100 day moving average the dow below the 100 day the s. and p. blue below the 100 day and finally the russell 2000 below the 200. there is news on a relatively neglected front of the troubled ministrations global trade conflict with both allies and declared adversaries today the u.s. has won a round in the world trade organizations arbitration system in the latest up or so to the long running case over european subsidies and analogous u.s. support for the boeing company in their latest ruling on the 15 year old case the panel of 3 corporate lawyers deciding the case found that a. subsidized loans for airbus caused harm to us competitors valued at
$7500000000.00 annually and granted permission to the united states to retaliate with tariffs on $7500000000.00 worth of european imports financial services are specifically exempted from coverage in the u.s. terror permit a countervailing decision on what european policymakers can do to punish the u.s. for their corresponding defacto subsidies for boeing is expected early next year or bust stock fell more than one percent on today's news. with more on the macro headwinds facing our global economy we bring back richard wants to take that economics emeritus at the university of massachusetts amherst so professor the market is now reacting hard to the bad and as historically there has been a very strong correlation between the pm i thought i sense and then equities market and the services sector however is what's been holding up the entire market right now and all eyes will be on the services reading tomorrow the gap between the
services and the manufacturing number has never been further apart so well manufacturing start to drag down services or conservatives remain intact. i think i would bet on the pulling down effect of manufacturing on services and the reason goes back to if you like a little bit historically this is an economic system that's very unstable every 4 to 70 years wherever capitalism has existed it has an economic downturn we are now 8 and even 10 years since the last real bad crash back in one in 2008 and 9 we are due for a one everybody knows it it would have been bad and probably come a little bit earlier but having pushed it off postponed it mostly because mr trump doesn't want to run for reelection on a bad economy and keeps telling us how good it is we've postponed it and now that the chickens are coming home to roost this is going to be a big one. and whichever sector goes 1st it's this accumulated historical overhang
on president the debt a globalized economy that is now being ripped apart by this russia us china fike these are all signs that we are in for a very rough ride. and professor wolf the u.s. dollar is now at a fresh 2 year high but right now russia is among the actors rapidly reducing their holdings of u.s. dollars and switching to other currencies in trade contracts are also notably stocking up on gold one of their countries are doing this and what does this mean for the u.s. in the future of the dollar as the globe world's reserve currency. i think what we have to understand is that up until recently central banks around the world accumulated the dollar as a reserve currency because they thought the conditions of the next 1020 years would be more or less like they were in the last 10 or 20 that's what people do they
project what is happening now is that all projections are being thrown out the window because of this aggressive attack by the trumpet ministration 1st on canada and mexico which at least the democrats opposed then on the immigrants which at least the democrats opposed but finally on china where the democrats are frightening only silent we now see that the world knows that all bets are off where this will go all and so everybody is recalibrating what they should hold and since they had so many dollars before many of them not just russia many countries are in the process of downloading reducing their dependence on the dollar and the long term effects of that are almost anybody's guess but they're not good right and professor wolf one other sort of fundamental consequence of the dollar being high
high currency of course is not a favorable thing in terms of terms of trade because it makes your exports more expensive in other markets and so the dollar at a high in the midst of a trade war what's a potential for the interactions of those factors. well here's the other side of that same coin when the dollar is. i it's cheap for american companies to buy foreign companies which they've been doing if the dollar falls it becomes cheaper for others to buy american industries and coordinate our control abroad so before we get too excited about bringing down the value of the dollar remember that it will increase the power of foreign countries and foreign corporations who are already strong in the american economy to become stronger it's a situation in which whichever way the dollar goes it cuts both ways and we're going to have to see how that plays out before we can say what the balance will be
so now the fed is they're starting to continue their operations this week and while the drop in total reaper assets used was certainly an improvement from last week's numbers they continued to man for reserves now suggest that this funding shortage is anything but a calendar band like what they said it was or claimed it was so doesn't this confirms that there is now an acute shortage in reserves. yes and it confirms that there are more structural more basic reasons for that aberration over the last couple of weeks in the report markets it suggests that the same underlying forces crushing the manufacturing worse in the international trade are also squeezing liquidity more and more companies are very worried about whether the people they do business with are going to go bankrupt the other companies but increasingly the over indebted consumer we are looking at a very serious economic crunch and we are not being helped by
a government that keeps telling us we have the greatest economy in the world which distracts us from the fundamental problems this economy has and professor wolf finally very quickly we noted that the white house has proposed the president has at least proposed placing capital restrictions on u.s. capital flows to china is that at all even feasible much preferable. in the past i would have said i don't think so but this is a government that's getting more and more desperate about its reelection more and more aware that what it's done so far is causing as many griefs for them as advantages so i'm beginning to wonder as is the world you know it doesn't matter that i wonder but bankers around the world governments around the world the united states is becoming what it used to call other countries namely economically at
least a rogue state someone you can't predict doing wild things that have repercussions that the people doing this don't seem to care about or to understand interesting times when the global hedge money goes rogue yes richard wolffe host of economic update thanks so much for your insight. thank you. there's more drama around the german role in settling the e.c.b. monetary policy this week the head of the german central bank is warning its colleagues at the european central bank against modifying the current limits on the e.c.b. renewed bond buying program formally known as q.e. in an understated but clear language the blueness bank president meant told the audience of vienna says the accuracy and importance of the limits set by the governing council on the government bond purchases have not changed i hope that the decisions now taken don't lead to these restrictions being questioned mr weldments comments seem to be aimed at the preemptive concerns of some expert observers who say that the e.c.b.
is likely to hit limits on purchases before inflation hits their target of 2 percent the e.c.b. policymakers have said that they would not hold the bond purchases until the euro zone's inflation reaches that level. now for a quick break but stay tuned because when we return amazon has come under heat for controversy around recognition technology and now that commerce giant is proposing to write their own regulations for their own program literally author and. joins a program to give us his view on what's in store for this sector and as we go to break here are those market numbers on a wild day at the court. all
right going to follow on that comes out of. the middle of the set of one among them . a far left for the main t.v. they tell you not the high. i mean. some of the said on months in front of the house and so on. totally unknown to me a lot of those. didn't even then that it is someone who did the board. didn't.
know why a paradise with some ground turned into a round experimentation feels great cultural chemicals we know that these chemicals have consequences they are major irritants there's no question otherwise why would the chemical company workers themselves be geared up that suited up locals attempt to combat the on regulated experiments but often in day you have many of these people who have one foot into the biotech pharma and the other foot in the government regulatory bodies this kind of collusion is reprehensible while the battle goes on the chemicals continue to poison hawaii and its people so one has to ask the question whether there is a form of environmental research going on in hawaii whether these companies feel they can get away with this because the people have less political power.
welcome back there is more legal intrigue in the banking sector to report today as a former currencies trader at citi group sues the global mega bank for $112000000.00 the former head of citi group european currency trading desk in london. danny allege that in the wake of the 2013 rate fixing scandal in that market city unfairly singled him out for suspicion in an effort to create a scapegoat plaintiff's lawyers wrote in the suit quote city quite literally fabricated an antitrust case for the d.o.j. against raunch on danny based upon knowingly false allegations that he engaged in market manipulation and collusion mr armstrong dani and tool edged accomplices in
the alleged rape fixing were quickly quitted the trial while citi group eventually settled the rate fixing case with payment of $2000000000.00 in fines to authorities in the u.s. and the u.k. . france is now the latest country to start cracking down on short sellers as a country reacts to a growing wave of activists investors who are targeting some of its best known company cars sun block who is the world's most feared short seller now turn his 10 year reign of terror from china to france blocks hedge fund muddy waters has launched bear attacks on france hottest stocks including retailer casino. on i t farm solution 30 and rally as say thinking those share prices down over 30 percent now government commissioners have published recommendations and to prevent short sellers and activists from what they call the stabilizing french corporate these have included widening the disclosures of short positions to derivative instruments pushing for more transparency around the borrowing and lending of the
stock and investigating whether the market functions are jeopardized once short selling reaches a certain volume of. shares so there has always been a controversy around shorts i however they play anything never gone wrong in the markets they contribute to oppression price discovery increased market liquidity uncovering fraud and corporate misdeeds but still take hedging and limit upward market manipulation a really good example short selling thing never get involved identifying the overpriced enron and then up subsequently unraveling their accounting practices. french president emanuel my kronwall visit china next month to meet with his chinese counterpart president xi jinping for talks on an agenda includes climate change and trade this is the french president's 2nd trip to china since taking office in 2017 archie archie surely paris has a story on this upcoming diplomatic journey. well it's been confirmed president matt brown is to make a 2nd official visit to china late in the next month in the hopes of deepening
trade between his country and china and also to try deepen relationships when it comes to fighting climate change now this comes at a time when there is an escalating resistance from e.u. leaders and also from businesses to do trade with china over what many have seen as china's reluctance to change its practices over what many say are unfair issues such as currency manipulation which also has been a criticism from the united states now this visit will be seen as being very important of course china is a huge economy and a big trading partner for the european union so president michael wants to get ahead of that he's also hoping that that trade will bring some sort of appeasement to european leaders who at the moment are concerned that washington could be about to make some retaliate or tree at tax and levies on european products this is retaliation for
a verdict earlier this year the world trade organization ruling that european governments had illegally subsidize. the european company called countries in europe fearful that their products could soon be washed down with extra tax and cost much more now the e.u. is also being present as well to move closer with china in regards to climate change while at the same time the u.s. seems to be moving further away so interesting to see the president making his 2nd visit next month to china and officials who sit in the hopes of strength things toys when it seems that ties with the united states getting. from paris asked. the fusing of facial recognition technology with the corporate powers of amazon empire is causing many privacy advocates to warn that the pope in visions of the future may be much closer to becoming a real life philip k. dick novel than we think the u.s.
based global retail. who also owns the washington post newspaper has developed a facial recognition system known as recognition with a k. the company has faced criticism even from amazon employees over their past attempts to sell recognition to interested customers and as well as the police and immigration enforcement regimes that tortures children by separating them from their families now mr bezos the richest man in human history has generously offered to advocate the public interest in this debate by writing the very laws that might regulate this unsettling and profoundly risky test knology joining us now to discuss this issue at the cutting edge of technology and the global business is the author and tech executive alex. so alex writing regulations for your very own and very lucrative company is a very interesting predictor meant right now and it seems a very bold move for this company facing an antitrust investigation from the d.o.j. so what they may mr bass is propose this week in seattle at the annual event to
promote their alexa device a product that already has privacy issues of their own. so i think you're correct in saying that this could be a problem i also want to point out and really unpack this in in 2 ways 1st of all every company in the u.s. that has a serious lobbying arm is interested in writing their own laws so i don't think amazon is any different in that regard and this is to be expected because they want to get ahead of the privacy concerns they want to get ahead of what people are saying and ideally as we've seen with all these tech companies the way they prefer to deal with any type of controversy is to either make sure that there is voluntary compliance rather than mandatory compliance or if there are laws being written that they are way ahead of that curve now to take the 2nd level though we should ask a bigger question which you alluded to and that's how do we handle a society where literally our face is being captured almost every word go by
cameras by all different companies that want to use that for their own purposes maybe without telling us how they're going to use it right alex you started touching on some of the issues involved here but temporarily setting aside the ethical and security issues presented by recognition there's practical matters the city of orlando florida canceled their pilot deployments of the technology because as the orlando weekly put it this cap to 15 months of technical way eggs been with the issues and uncertainty over whether the controversial phase scanning technology actually works so what are the protests persistent technical bugs here aside from the ethical issues and what is amazon doing to patch those bugs. so i think actually everybody is having these kind of bugs when they're trying to run facial recognition at scale even in china which probably has the most advanced facial recognition programs of anyone in the world and some of their companies over there are actually selling technology back into the u.s.
they struggle when they're trying to do facial recognition that's running in the field and while conditions. without specific band with or without specific ways of making sure that it works amazon is also struggling the same way because facial recognition technology as something that's just happening out there is still pretty cutting edge you don't get me wrong the algorithms that can do this are everywhere they're easy to use they are essentially open source but at the same time it's a big difference between making it work in a lab almost a limited subset of people versus making it work in the field or on a database that's less structured where maybe the images it's trying to recognize the faces are not all perfectly positioned they're not all perfectly spaced maybe someone's word or glasses or something like that so now turning back to the issues around the collusion of recognitions with this is stomach racism and us law enforcement the a.c.l.u. of northern california notably tested the system using headshots of members of
congress with mug shots so they found a high to also match rate of 28 out of 535 members falsely identified as a match with people of color being disproportionately represented accounting for 11 among those 28 false matches so tell us how these technical issues can begin to get tangled in issues of racial justice as well as general privacy. so look this isn't just a recognition issue this is an ai issue and this touches on the fact that all a i all machine learning is built on top of previous data the only way that machine learning systems can learn is by looking at what we tell is correct and building off of that so if all of the previous data all of the previous systems are biased which we know they are then of course you'll start to see racial bias pop up in newer systems that's not necessarily our fault facial recognition or ai that's the fault of us in our inability to create data that's actually clean and not racially biased and it's going to be a tremendous problem going forward not just for what you're seeing with facial
recognition of politicians or facial recognition of everybody but all sorts of issues were touching our lives whether we get credit and bank loans whether we are awarded jobs or whether we pass through the interview process is all things like that. and alex you touched on this earlier but some observers have said of course it's understandable that mr bay's rose would propose self regulation since many legacy sectors of today's economy have effectively captured the agencies that are supposed to regulate. but is that view perhaps cynical likely to be vindicated in the end with amazon and ultimately winning the privilege of regulating itself in a manner analogous to the way we say see say the oil industry influencing the u.s. interior department. oh it's absolutely a risk and i think it's a terrible idea for the companies that are making the technology to write the rules and be given the right to decide how they will be held accountable i think that
should be a much broader discussion i think the risk here is that the technology is really out running the regulations right now you can go and buy amazon recognition as a service with a credit card you don't have to have any special technical capabilities they've designed it so that almost any programmer can bake that into the algorithms that they're running so right now this is out there it's being used and i think that amazon of course wants to regulate it themselves or wants to at least write the laws but as a society we really need folks like the a.c.l.u. or if f. to weigh in and say wait a 2nd how is the recognition really going to be use will we have control of our faces going forward and it's literally that question will we be able to control the use of our face in the data from our face in the way systems interact with us in society i think that this is just trying to implement some regulation a space where there hasn't been any yet somewhere and watch as well author and tech executive i thought i thank you so much my own site. thank you.
and finally nasa has selected 14 u.s. based companies to receive a total of more than 4. $1000000.00 that will fund projects for further rect exploration of the moon and mars individual companies will receive grants between $1.00 and $10000000.00 for projects that will work to solve a myriad of issues that affect space travel the funds come from nasa as artemus program which hopes to land humans on the moon again by 2024 the largest block of funding is going to amazon founder jeff bezos has blue origin that company will focus on cryogenic technology that they hope will eventually lead to be able to be able to produce fuel on the moon on mosques space x. also receive funding as part of the project it's ironic picked.
and all their companies are actually powerful and they have been making so much money that they don't need funding a. government entity that doesn't even create any profits for their own. jeff bezos of course famously said there's really no way for me to spend all the money i have burned it trying to get in the space but i don't know why needs the grants in that case in any case that's it by this time you can catch my must on direct t.v. channel 321 dish network 280 or streaming 247 on player t.v. the free t.v. app challenge to 79 or you can always catch is that you tube dot com start to see you next hour. i'm gonna be in by north so many people because
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who dares thinks. we dare to ask. a nice man reportedly killed at least 4 officers at the police headquarters and paris a number of others were left before the attackers were shot dead i'll go live to the french for the latest in just a minute. also this hour as u.s. democrats rally to protect a whistleblower whose claims have triggered an impeachment inquiry to look at how they previously it's time to prosecute those who revealed uncomfortable truths. and in the u.k. a christian doctor fails to get his talking overturned at an employment tribunal after he was fired for refusing to use different pronouns for transgender people.
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