tv Boom Bust RT December 31, 2019 5:30am-6:00am EST
visit washington this week where he is expected to sign phase one of the agreement however political concerns continue to bubble in the background as neither side has released any specific details of the trade agreement and no text has been released while the u.s. t.r. has released a mere fact sheet outlining what it claimed to be in the deal which included $80000000000.00 in ag purchases over 2 years analysts consensus is that these figures do not add up and remain impossible benchmarks to fulfill it looks like the best we can hope for in the space one of the d. a trade deal is merely a point of truce in the bitter trade war rather than any real substantial changes which really begs the question of why even start a trade war if at the end nothing changed and you've wasted an entire year of economic productivity to help us answer this question and more we bring in professor richard wolfe host of economic update so richard this entire thing has been political theater from the start and you called it and now they've been
dragging this phase one out for a long time a signing ceremony translations legal scrubs more and more fluff trickling little bits of information every single day to give the markets an illusion of progress but is this thing actually going to get signed i mean multiple analysts have already came out and said that the benchmark exports set by the u.s. are simply unfeasible as they have exceeded that of 2017 why would china agree to something like that. well i think for the chinese it's a question of gaining time for them this entire sauce started with the initiative of mr trump it's political theater we've said for a long designed to make mr trump appear for his reelection bid as the protector of the united states making the charlie knees and for that matter everybody else in the world give the united states a better deal beating up on the foreigners for cheating that's as old as methuselah in the world of politics. next and mr trump is trying it again the chinese know
that that can hurt them as it has but they also know that it hurts mr trump's reelection bid because it hurts manufacturing farmers and others so the best bottom line is it's a theater driven by a calculus mr trump's calculus how much does the theater gain me and the how much does the theater lose me and what every resigned this coming week it will be overwhelmed by how that calculus shifts between now and election day next nor the november but if the chinese side to side to sign something that they simply can't deliver on because these are impossible benchmarks to fulfill of us we said then wouldn't it just be a question of if not when that like how chinese will default in the so-called agreements. i think this through a bit more complicated the chinese understand that they get some real immediate
advantages tariffs that were set to go into effect won't now that's been agreed to tariffs that were imposed in september are going to be either eliminated or removed it's still true that half of what comes from china is subject roughly to a 25 percent tower of but that's less damaging then they would have had to live with if they hadn't made this deal and they'd know because they've watched mr trump that whatever they saw and now and what ever the conditions are none of that matters a month from now let alone 3 or 6 compared to what mr trump will be calculating as to the advantage or disadvantage of finding the chinese one thing on the one hand or finding them a partner to sign the deal with on the other he'll be watching the stock market to help him decide which way to go. it's going to be
a continuous theater that we have to keep on watching i guess for the rest of point money is not going to change volatility is here to stay it seems now to us merchandising trade deficit trying to the naira since 2016 in november imports fell an export rose and now we're sitting on 63200000000 in deficit so while the trump administration as you said is pointing to this and saying oh the trade war work isn't this great this is only half the story the u.s. typically runs a deficit in merchandise and then a surplus in services so what conclusions should we draw here. from these numbers for the last month no conclusion it's never a smart move to use any month let alone one narrow to draw such conclusions we'll have to wait and see for example the decline in imports for the united states which helps our balance could simply reflect the fact that we're having more and more economic troubles for the mass of people 'd and they're just not buying the stuff that they used to buy some of which is imported and so you can see that there's
a kind of multi level factors playing here very very premature to draw conclusions . so now the w t l has reported that the u.s. china and germany they have benefited the most from global free trade their combined revenue in one year was $239000000000.00 so despite all these benefits of this organization but the retail future is now uncertain at is facing some unprecedented pressures from washington so what's going to happen at the u.s. continues to block appointments of the new appellate judges and if they were to fail when the u.s. stand to lose out as well. everybody asks that question that's the right question to ask but here's the fact that has to be faced the w t o like other agreements depends on a certain minimum good faith of all the participants mr trump has distinguished himself by not playing by those rules he has disrupted everything as he's done so
intentionally at least made sure everybody knows it the short run advantage is all the headlines go to him the short run advantage is he looks like the great protector of the us in the way he hypes it but the long run is what we're going to have to live through and in the long run damaging the w t o is teaching everyone china germany but the whole world that relying on the leadership of the united states is too dangerous to continue you cannot rely on something as unstable and its foreign policy as the united states has been if you want to be the world leader which the united states was you cannot do what mr trump has been doing and we will be living with the results of the readjustment of world trade taking into account the only reliability of the united
states in the way we never had to do since the end of the such a world. ward i'm so glad you brought that up because right now everybody is saying oh my god we're at what we're up 27 percent this year this is because spectacular run for the market better than any previous administration but yet you bring up the fact that there are will be long term consequences so can you bring us some of these long term consequences despite the fact that the markets are now at all time highs. absolutely let me give you 2 or 3 examples the 1st one more and more countries not just china and russia but other countries are deciding not to use the dollar anymore as the international currency with which to conduct their trade their distress their deceased i wish i'd put it there disengagement from the dollar will cost the united states in years to come number $2.00 they're not looking to the united states for leadership they're finding their own agreements signing their
own bilateral arrangements and not just economically but also politically and militarily the cost to the united states of being excluded in these parts of the world by these actions is incalculable and 3rd and perhaps the most important all along you can't count on the united states as a market because of the tariffs the use by mr trump of cutting you off by hitting you with a big tax whenever it's politically convenient to him once again if you're going to be the so-called leader of the world economy you can't act freely as if you were just another player getting an advantage people except you but they rely on you and if you become unreliable they will disengage those are 3 very profound ways that we are headed into
a very troubled waters and we should not be misled by one year's stock market boosting which was done for that purpose but which has been done out of the cost of long term difficulty accent point professor richard roth thank you so much for being here. budget carrier you're always counseled over 170 flights scheduled for the next 3 days as flight attendants at the sister company german wings prepared to strike tensions have been building due to disagreements concerning regulations on part time work and the u.f.o. union warned that the strike can extend past 3 days notice if no agreement is reached the majority of the cancelled flights were done messed up and stranded passengers were off the train tickets to their destination or get a seat on flights operated by other loved ones the timing of the strike during the busy holiday season made things especially problematic previous strikes in november that was on a smaller scale affected 180000 passengers and cost the airline 22400000.
more on this we're joined now by hilary for which word member of the british american business association so hilary now that the you have recently held their strike against back in november that was quite recently just a month ago so this was over the exact same issues previously wage demands pensions part time work was nothing done in november and why is this still continuing and will this continue to bleed into 2020. where you know it's going to continue and obviously into 2020 because we're so close to the holidays and this is a subsidiary of towns and they're basically the cheap budget airline so what they did is they short shifted this and yes they will concessions made back in november but really it's sort of like it's on the handed tactics obviously the union knows this is the busiest time of year at least the status right now is as follows lufthansa actually got a little bit of leverage because basically this is affected really only domestic german flights and so they've been able to offer rail passes to all of those german
citizens that are stranded at the moment so at least it was sway some of the dire circumstances they will have to make financial concessions that certain but i don't think you're going to see them cave in a major way to the union because obviously they've been able to do something domestically i think in the future they're going to have to repair the brand because it's the brand that's taken a huge hit over this so we have a lot of issues plaguing germany at this time and while germany is kind of floundering a little bit india is now expected to overtake germany to become the 4th largest economy in 2026 according to the center of economics and business research so are we now seeing a kind of shift of the status quo in the world leader board where you now have india in 4th japan rising to 3rd and the u.s. and china kind of ballet out for 1st and 2nd are we see a power shift to the east now. eventually what we're going to see kristie of course is because you've got a 1000000000 people in india and china so is that numbers basically eventually with a 1000000000 people you have far larger vaska demographics and
a demographic base how. but i would say this is not going to be happening this decade mainly because you look at the ethics of the laws in place that we have in the west you look also at the transition of students you don't find the brilliance of the brains rushing over to india and china from the u.s. what happens is you have chinese students and indian students they come to the u.s. they come to study and 63 percent of all the global unicorns are high tech unicorns are in the west and so main bridge on only in the united states and of course the high tech center of london so you're not going to see it immediately what has to happen there is you have to see if the chinese will free up their society if you see them actually encouraging entrepreneurship that may shift the power but at the moment at least diplomatically the u.s. is going to remain at the force that it is and i heard the previous gentleman obviously the recent tactics have somewhat made that less stable but i would say not in the foreseeable future mainly only because of the entrepreneurship that we have and the ethics in the in the west compared to the chinese now moving on to the
us the e.u.'s new trade commissioner phil hogan said that he now wants to quote reset the e.u. u.s. trade lesions on a number of very contentious issues next month so what's on his agenda for 2020. 1 he's got a lot on his agenda actually he's known as big phil he had a very good relationship with young he's a towering 6 foot 5 irishman and on his agenda immediately would like robert lighthouse of the u.s. trade representative they have to discuss steel and aluminum because those are 2 huge issues the tar the trump of ministration imposed immense tower of in 2018 and also over 7500000000 in tower of on products so the idea ringback obviously is to waive those towers but the u.s. imposed due to the backing of the european plane maker. and also the u.s. is threatening to impose some sort of sanctions because of all the digital taxes being imposed by the e.u. and particularly coming out of france in terms of all of our global big digital and
tech farms so what you're going to see is you're going to see this. striving for no terrorists but the big contentious issue is that the us out of washington wants us farm products to be at the center and brussels does not want foreign products to be sent to all of which is rather ironic actually because big phil as he's known for hogan grew up on a farm in ireland previously walls of obama is going to be interesting to see how big bill steps up hilary for the american business association thank you so much. time now for a quick break but hang here because just on the other side of the break 29 has been a stellar year for gold but how does the metals stacked up against other assets and what can we expect going forward david mckelvey of mckelvey financial lenses a hand to give us his outlook and as we go to break here are the numbers at the close.
if you take into account that women don't report because of the extreme retaliation it's probably somewhere near about half a 1000000 women have now been sexually assaulted in the us military rape is a very very traumatizing thing tat happen but i've never seen trauma like i've seen women who are veterans who have suffered military sexual trauma reporting rape is more likely to get the victim punished them the offender and almost 10 year career or chose very invested in and i gave a sex offender who was not even put to justice or put on the registry this is simply an issue of our in violent male sexual predators for the large part of target whoever is there to prey upon whether that's a man or woman. is you'll be a reflection of reality.
in the world transformed. what will make you feel safe. tyson they should feel community. are you going the right way or are you being that. guy would. want to strip off his face. in the world corrupted you need to descend. to join us in the depths. or a maybe in the shallows. but if she warned you didn't i do. to shoot at the balls more than those jeans near the speech and she me. when you guys u.k.'s. in the news i mean that you're that infants involved. a
lot of people says was it hard to get to travel for most schools. but as it is to be as you as it's large. if you flew. in. from. new. tesla rolled out the 1st model * cars built at its shanghai gigafactory monday but rather than celebrating the stock is tanking tumbling down nearly 5 percent why while analysts are seeing these 1st 15 cars being delivered as merely
a publicity stunt the company made it a ceremony and made a huge a big fuss about what an important milestone this is to say that they achieved deliveries in 2019 furthermore analysts say that vehicle deliveries may miss the company's target this year as model 3 demand has slumped this report coincides with what lauren fix said last week about there being market saturation as we start seeing a shift from pent up demand to steady flow demand i know initially they're going to be delivering 15 cars by the end of the year so we can say that he delivered cars in 2019 that's more of a publicity stunt than anything else we also have to remember we need sales and if there's no sales there then you're producing a product that just sits and that's partly what temp and you're in the u.s. where there's lots of vehicles sitting in different locations around the country you can look it up on line but as a surety airforce base and they're just parked and that's not good you never want to build product that's not being sold you're better off having consumers wait. now another issue facing tesla will be pricing and mix issues in china as the opening
of the china factory has been a key reason for the stock's recent outperformance the best selling evie in china was b a i see. and it's so less than 2000 new goals per week the top 5 models combined sold less than $6000.00 vehicles per week and they all cost about 25 percent of what the china made model 3 is expected to cost while it has been a great fan base the future outlook towards broader adoption remains skeptical. vodafone hutchinson australia has teamed up with nokia rather than huawei to roll out 5 g. network in australia the 1st half of 2020 australia had banned from providing equipment for australia amid unproven fears that the company could be used as a front for spying by beijing while the us has urged other 5 member to exclude way from its new telecommunications network australia stands alone as the only member aside from the us with an all out ban on fall way this has led to an increasingly
strained relationship with beijing as china is australia's largest trading partner there is concern that beijing will seek economic reality ation for its hardline stance against fall way now holway urged australia to overturn a ban on the farms involvement adding that the ban has stifled competition pushed up costs and made it likely that regional and rural customers will receive limited or no 5 g.'s services at all the band has also raised cost by an estimate of 20 to 40 percent and now nokia is the beneficiary of these restrictions and western nations and on market access up over 2 percent today. and as we wrap up the year we have to talk about bitcoin the best before my asset class of this year by far now year day gold is 16 percent the s. and p. is up 27 percent. polian is up 52.4 percent while big client is up and down to
116 percent year to date and with the network having in 2020 many hardliners are anticipating another rally for big climb within the next 6 months to give us more on this we bring in david knapp of any of the mcavennie financial group so david after new legislation takes effect on january 10th of 2020 right now the anonymous purchase limit for gold well drop from 10000 euros to 2000 euros people are now queuing up around several blocks in these last few days to buy gold especially if they're particularly concerned about the e.c.v. as controversial economic practice is of these negative interest rates so gold so far has been a steady guard against inflation so why dropping the limits on these purchases now of all time. well gold is not only protection against inflation that's also a protection against financial repression which is what negative interest rates are this is a policy choice among central bankers and central planners to choose winners and
losers and the losers in this case are savers so your opt out is to either put money in the mattress or to buy gold if you can start to close off those options which is what they're doing essentially by moving the the number down from 100022000 you're creating more of a corralled and captive audience which is exactly what you need to effectively implement financial repression this is in my view like building a berlin wall where you're capturing a set of investors and not allowing them to escape so that you can then implement this idea of financial repression that's what's happening and i think gold is is showing that it has it always has been it's a tool of financial freedom. now gold has just to add more than 3 months on friday and it's still going on so traditionally gold doesn't rally in step with us i usually it's one or the other risk on or risk off however this year we've seen both do pretty well so what's happening here. i think one thing to say is smart money is
already moving to the exits moving in selling industry some for some of their equity positions and repositioning in gold as a safe haven into supporting what could be a volatile year in 2020 but i think if you look at some of the economic fundamentals we have $2.00 money supply growth of over $1.00 trillion dollars in 2019 we also have the fed balance sheet since september expanding by 400000000000 that's going to accelerate in interest in gold and so these i think are some factors to keep in mind not only that but we have a deficit this year of over a trillion dollars with the expectation from the the congressional budget office over a trillion dollars in a budgets every year budget deficits that is every year for the next 10 years i think these are all reasons why investors are already moving in the direction of gold now new reports also show that central banks in twentynine have also been hoarding gold gold purchases are now record highs from central banks around the world including new gold buyers such as cars don and turkey so why are the world's
central banks now stockpiling gold reserves at these record levels just smart money flocking again. exactly and i think it is a continuation of a trend you saw central bank liquidations up until 2009 and gradual accumulations from 2009 to the present but really it's accelerated in 20172018 here and 2019 with central bank central bankers purchasing record amounts one of the key trends here i think what you're looking at is diversification away from the u.s. dollar and this is for a couple reasons one having gold as a reserve asset it solidifies what your currency represents it is something that legitimizes a domestic currency so that is happening it is a diversification away from u.s. dollars and i think that is happening because you're trying to create an insulation from treasury department influence in domestic economies we've seen the u.s. treasury get involved and even control and create certain outcomes and so there's
a desire to create some insulation from the u.s. treasury and their ability to manipulate or control financial circumstances gold again represents financial freedom both for the individual investor as well as for the central banker who wants some distance from us from u.s. policies now another diversification away from the u.s. talk a little bit about bitcoin big quine is what we call digital gold but that digital gold needs to be stored and i kept a wallet and right now there has been another clamp down recently google removed. rouser mehta mask from its android app store and now apple may also forced to remove their data browser feature from its crypto while app as well so this is really unfortunate to see and as web 3 is in direct competition with google and apple should we expect this continued censorship on metamath and other dapper. kristie i think the consistent theme from talking about the e.c.b. to talking about google is control the word is controlling who is going to control
the world of money and finance in this case you're talking about something that may represent an op. just like we're talking about gold as an opt out from domestic currencies or from the euro so you have bitcoin as an opt out as well who is going to control that you see the chinese wanting to launch their own crypto currency and so it's very clear who is going to control the space in china now if you're talking to the giants like google they would certainly like to have more and more control and influence over that market and i think ultimately we're talking about competition with state monopolies and so that i think is where the real challenge is on the horizon will google ultimately introduce like facebook did something that represents a challenge to the u.s. dollar that it will have to see i don't think the u.s. treasury will like that either david mckelvey mcavennie financial thank you so much . thank you christine. satchell by this time you can catch boom bust on you to dot com must stand next time.
just show. financial. money laundering 1st visit this is just a different. something you're going to america something over the cayman island to do all these banks are complicit in there just. to do some serious money laundering ok let's see how we did while we got a nice watch for max and for stacy oh beautiful jewelry how. do you know what money laundering is highly illegal here for
a watch guys record. for headline stories this. stormed the u.s. embassy and after last week's deadly american airstrikes in a rug diplomatic stuff including the ambassador reportedly been evacuated from the compound. also ahead. claims he's dying in a u.k. prison with sedatives subjected to 23 hours of solitary confinement every day we hear from his friend who was told the chilling details in a call from the wiki leaks co-founder on christmas eve. because he spent christmas with me and my family.
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