i are a wealth engine was a part. there were never in friendly terms, but they were times when russian they managed to accommodate each other security concerns and even do something together. most notably during the early stages of the us presence in ghana, son, and wildly heard the americans of troll from cobble seems to necessitate more coordination between this an easy do. a formal talking lines will be separate. come november. what does the silent treatment mean for the region and for the world to discuss that now joined by an a to leave and senior fellow at the quinta institute for responsible state profits in washington, d. c. dr. lehman is great to talk to thank you very much for finding the time. hello. i'm sure that the closing of the nato lays in office in moscow and russian mission to brussels didn't come as a big surprise to you. there weren't functioning any way,

but i think there's something noteworthy about the 2 sides, not even trying to keep up appearances anymore. what do you think? yes, i mean, it's another step downwards. and it also illustrates the absence of coordinated thinking in washington because clearly this nature decision would not have been taken without the agreement of washington. the biden administration at the moment seems to be anxious to reduce tension with russia, hence the visit of newland to moscow. and the fairly cool reception of zelacofsky in, in washington. but on the other hand, they now go along with this, the complete end of relations with nato. which of course, on the russian side was response to the expulsion by nato of alleged russian agents . but you also get the general last in eunice as saying that some ukraine in

georgia are going to be members of nature one day, which by the way, very few people in private, actual leave any. you mentioned a lot of things that need and packing. so let's take them one by one. i want to start with this silent treatment metaphor because the technology both and in couples counseling, this kind of silence rather than loud fights are considered a major sign of breaking up. i wonder when it comes to the relationship very uneasy relationship between russia and need to do you think we have seen the worst already or. busy the real break up is, is yet to come. well, i hope we've seen the worst, but, you know, the, the most dangerous aspect of this breaches that you know, you have nato ships and planes wandering around in the baltic in the black sea. there is always the risk of an accidental collision,

not one that i the desired but you know, when you have war planes operating at high speeds around each other as happened. you know, with the, with the american over china 20 years ago. there is, there is always the possibility of an accident which will then lead to a drastic deterioration of relation. and that's why i think it's so confusing to have service like myself because of the as you mentioned, direct communication between moscow and washington not only existed that i think it has actually intensified and the divide in the ministration. some people would suggest that the moscow and washington's poses a more aligned now, then let's say 3 years ago under trump. why do you think washington seems to be preferring a direct contact with moscow without necessarily going circles through brussels? well, i mean, let's, let's face it in washington as always, treated brussels with just a brussel. does that to take american orders?

right. it's, it's a useful client. organize. ok, why is it no longer useful to wash it? i mean, it is still useful, but you know, and america is very anxious if you, you know, if you look at stolen bugs later. speech that trying to get nato to become part of the confrontation with china. but i think at the same time, if washington at the moment does want to relax tension, some logic with russia, then of course, nature is not such a huge useful organization because in nature has been the most provocative western organizations that roger is. cuz you're interpreting that as a sign of actually reaching out to moscow. no. but because as i say, i fear that american policy as to one coordinator for that. partly because you have so many domestic pressures, every american administration is always looking over it shoulder at what the

american media will say, what people in congress will say, what people within the democratic party will say. and especially of course, you know, after afghanistan on the one hand, the biden administration does want to reduce american commitments elsewhere to really concentrate on china. but at the same time, of course, the withdraw withdrawal from afghanistan and the collapse of the afghan states has created this impression of american weakness. so on the other hand, biden has to, you know, gives the continued appearance of toughness and for infant international affairs. now, moscow has long considered nader obsolete, and accused it of playing up russia's threat in order to justify its existence. this closing of direct communication while maintaining bilateral context, both between moscow in washington and between moscow and the native partners. isn't

that supporting russia's thesis that and neither has outlived long out least its purpose. yeah, i mean, it does, but nature, you have to understand means different things to different people. i mean, in poland, the baltic states the resume. nope. sincere paranoia. i, regardless as large and crazy, but you know, you can be crazy and sincere at the same time, you know, within many native structures it is, as you say, i think a much more cynical calculation about basically the need to unit the need for adam is so as to preserve nature as an organization for let me look, since the end of the code will look at all the different roles that nissan has defined for itself. it's failed that every one of them by the way. but clearly you have, you know, not just within the within the natal operations, but what one has one stand is that the west europeans, the germans in particular,

but all the others as well. absolutely terrified of being left alone. well, and actually i think the recent withdrawal from garrison has clearly demonstrated that the american, and frankly native security blanket has very b calls in it, or sometimes not even available when it's needed the most. do you think this very vivid example will change if not the rhetoric, the public rhetoric of nate, with regards to russia, but some internal processes? a bitch, but the fear was always there of america again going home. and of course, you know when to exaggerate important ref kennestone, america withdrew from vietnam without withdrawing from europe. but the fear is always there and you know that that is why the west europeans claim to nato in this way. frankly, how much the americans kick the you know,

what happened to france, you know, with the australian suffering due. but still, it is the calculation of the french elite that you know, they cannot do without america. now, at the core of russia needs attentions, lies. most concerned about meters, expansion towards his borders. not only through formal acceptance of new members, but also through some sort of informal cooperation, most notably with ukraine in georgia. and i would suppose that now when native feels certain weakness with the americans, leaving them in such your disregarding fashion, there would be some need for postering. would you expect that to come come up again with that you know, more courting of georgia and ukraine and perhaps even more pride practical steps in trying to draw them closer in i think we've seen that with general lloyd austin

statements, you know, those are just statements at this point and wish before but will yes, but i mean, you know, they restate the commitment i don't think that the biden administration wants at the moment to, to actually increase those commitments in practice. because after all means this is absolutely basic geo politics. if you're facing, at least as you said, the need for vastly increased commitments in asia against china. well, it really does not make sense to increase your commitments elsewhere if it's not necessary. so as you say, i think the, the desire is to continue the rhetoric of for georgia and ukraine, but not actually to, to try to push, you know, to, to push this further forward. i regard further, ne to expansion is dead, frankly. because after all, nature membership,

the children, ukraine, employees, native support for those 2 countries in that territorial disputes with russia. well, i mean, that causes de padding fire to in western european countries. and by the way, i mean under the surf, it's among a good many people in america to need a member states last. $1140.00 for service members and have got us that which compared to the countless agen civilians. and i think to roughly 2 and a half 1000 american troops is a relatively small number. i think you don't even hear it being discussed in britain. brit britain last proportionately, more troops in afghanistan than the americans. but if the mayor is indeed serious about standing out to the so called the russian aggression that would involve potential involves a much bigger loss of life. do you think people, when the native politicians, when they talk about, you know,

being tough with russia, do they keep that, you know, loss of life aspect in mind all the time. you have to understand that so much of this nato stuff is theatrical. it's purely theatrical nato did not fight for georgia in 2008 it until planned to fight for georgia. that was not the slightest consideration of ever fighting for georgia. and of course, it didn't fight to ukraine in 2014 either. and there is absolutely no intention anywhere in western europe to send a single. so dot shore, danish or german or french soldier, to fight in ukraine in a way is just the safe way of postering and externalizing, you know, problems in russia. cosy, nemesis, juanita? well, i mean, there is real fear there as well as genuine paranoia. as i say. there is yes, i mean there is also a great deal of, you know, the convenient,

convenient enemy. i have a formula that this, i say that nato will never actually defend any were russia, might attack. and russia will never attack any work that nato might defend. because you know, on the other hand, i regard unit a stuffy region in the west about a russian threat to invade the baltic states or, or pose does absolutely nonsense in crenan, georgia, that's a different matter. very close. there are ongoing frozen conflict. but now, this notion of red lines is key for both russia and neighbor. and i think, especially the russian level, prison pitching has committed the country to both flexibility and firmness in defining in defending those lines, which i think is a very significant ambition. and if i were one of the nader commanders, i would want to challenge that. do you think this high things game will

play out somehow in the near future? do you think nader will try to sort of test those red lines as the kremlin draws them? well, symbolically, you know, like the visits of that parish warship destroyer to the black sea when they sample, that is not the real danger. but that's what i mean symbolically, they will go on testing them and making the point. but i mean, there is no desire. heard about the russians do think for the russians. it's also a symbolic issue or well, the thing on the nato saw there is only one real red line in the sense of a line that if crossed will lead to war. and that is an attack on the nature member, because then there is a legal obligation,

a treaty obligation to fight. so you know, if to a repetition, in lapse of both of what happened in ukraine, then it would be very, very dangerous. indeed. but once again, rusher i think the russian government understands that very well and has no such intention and on, as i say on the nature side. if in fact, nobody wants to risk actual with russia, then in the end, they too will respect the real read loudness. we have to take a very short break right now, but we will get back to the discussion in just a few moments stationed by

a join me every thursday on the alex simon shows, but i'll be speaking to guess in the world of politics, sport, business. i'm show business, i'll see you then the

me or i welcome back to all the smith and that's all to leave and senior fellow, the quinta institute for responsible faith craft in washington to see dr. leaving. we started this discussion with the western policy of garrison and i heard you say that, you know, part of the problem is the western on the willingness or inability to comprehend and deal with complexity. this shortage of both analytical and intellectual scope and breath. is that a problem only with a gap? sounds portfolio or is it the more of a feature of the western policy in general when it comes to international affairs? i think it's a way to feature. i mean, much of the presentation of russia in the west and i'm sorry to say, you know, in academia and think tanks as well as in the media, is pure caricature. it's,

it's, it's a real basis in reality, a tool. and it's also of course, laced with hatred by now, as i have to say, of course, as well, that's true of many russians on the other side. to be honest with you, i think. and we are recording this interview on the sidelines of deval dice for my i think the discussion of, of the west here in russia is far more measured simply because i think the russians have gotten their frustrations out already. i mean, at this point, many of them are simply fatigued with the unpredictability of and you know, problems that keep piling up. i think at least in this part of the world, there is a realization that they need to be sold before it gets well, it's been that i have a real rush and there are, of course, very sensible russian analysts and you're quite right. i mean, you, you, you sense this just exhaustion with western illusions and regions, or deliberate stances, because i mentioned psychology before,

we know from psychology that everything's as for a reason. if you know, certain narrative is being prepared, you know, perpetuated. that means that it serves certain goals, and yes, i mean, it would be a mistake to underestimate the sheer ignorance by of unit. so many policymakers in the west, president biden has access to the most renowned and the most experienced folks in foreign policy. i mean, compared to trump, at least he has a very large pool of not only, you know, a condemning, but also practitioners of foreign policy. and i used to assure the, because i mean some of the recent moves of the blood and administration, they, they seem to be quite sensible. i have heard a lot of people in moscow to complement joe biden on, on the difficulty of his decision to withdraw from the dentist. and so he seems to be a little bit more sensible than sofi credits a yes,

no true. and also highly intelligent people in washington and some highly aware ones. but the problem is that you get these narratives know, well, it's what they call marriages every else in the world called it prejudices. but once a, you know, a particular mindset has got a grip on the western establishment or in the u. s. establishment. then even, you know, the people who don't agree with this and who know better, but who value their careers will go along with it. and unfortunately, i mean, well, not just with regard to russia, but we've got to iran now as well with regard to china. you have these universal narratives, compose partly of prejudice, partly of ignorance, partly of cowardice which are very difficult to fundamentally, to shift over the last couple of days. i've been reading some of the articles by

a secretary of state colin powell who passed away a couple of days ago. and he said the, you know, a proper leader should surround himself or herself by people who are serious about their jobs, but not about themselves. and, you know, he was very strong and very vocal against that kind of opportunities. and do you think that's, that's empty rhetoric. reducing there was a tie when institutionally, the interests of the state of the state craft could have been put ahead of people's . we all have, you know, career orientations, but i think when you're in a position of power, any moral person would consider, you know, the choice between you and your country at the end of the day. but you know it's, it's very difficult as i say when, when you have the overwhelming majority of the establishment, the media, the think tanks in what is being called the blog in washington. regret it,

swallows people it ingest them. it does take considerable moral courage to stand out against that and a willingness to sacrifice your career. since i mentioned the secretary powell, he's the moral stems, didn't prevent him from facilitating be the war in iraq, which contributed a great deal to the well being of the us military industrial complex. the explicit rationale of the biden's administration of withdrawing from i've got to spend is to focus on china and russia. do you think those 2 areas of rivalry are they promising? as far as the military industrial complex is concerned, enormously press the military. well, you see the military industrial complex never rarely like the war on terror. much because country and insurgency, it's closely expensive,

but it's expensive in terms of unit aid to the afghan state in terms of, you know, pensions but, but it's not the big ticket items. if you're in the military industrial complex, what you really want is more battle ships, more aircraft carriers, more f, 30 fives, or whatever they are, because they are much, much, much, much more expensive. but one would think that the americans, they've already has enough of those toys. i mean, big choice. well, but you see the, the main point is that back under all the way until the 1970s that america had basically a state legend, a program of industrial technological development unit. and that was unit for from 2nd world war up to reagan, that was accepted by republican presidents as well. then you got this reagan stature, our truck, you know, free market reaction against

a state road in the economy. but at the same time, there is a, a recognition that america has to go on investing in high tech industries and try to maintain high tech jobs towards america. have it has a state industrial program that can't tell it's name. it's called the military industrial complex. but you see it supports huge numbers of jobs, it pulls enormous amounts of money into technological development of an appallingly wasteful kind, but without it would basically be no state american state support for technological development at hold. now one of the major differences between this as far as i'm concerned between the russian and chinese they craft and the american statecraft is this availability or integration of the historical thinking into the, the whole process. because both the russians and the chinese,

perhaps they have more historical grievances, but they, they, they have a longer view of history. the americans, historically had a short history go, memory in the pun intended. here is a changing on under by them, given his age and given how long he has been in, in politics. i mean, the, one of the benefits of his age would be that, you know, he remembers the different e books to some extent. but, you know, washington is a very shaping experience and he has spent his entire life in washington. and i think, you know, if you look at, you know, biden's now, you know, idea of this lee world league of democracies and america. it's the same thing. and of course, it's, it has very close, the knowledge is to, to communism it is, you know, america leading the world to a future paradise, the future and state. and that is so deeply embedded in the american

political culture and in the europe in union as well. to a considerable extent, that it's in his very, it isn't fundamentally shifted by experience unit with awful, your thought, the americans that complete the american failure, enough canister, would have led to a sort of a deep intellectual thinking about, you know, is democracy is liberal democracy. the universal answer, you know, what are the real challenges we're facing in different boxes? well, but you wrote recently that like in is competition with the euro ceasar, the superiority of the western system of the western model to the chinese. one is not obvious to everybody around the world and the sort of the outcome of this rebel rebuild depend more on the domestic reforms, the master democratic reforms, rather than efforts to contain china. i mean, we have seen and have heard

a lot about the latter. have you seen the former, the real practical efforts to remake the democratic system so that it's more agile and more efficient in meeting the needs of the american populace? will? yes, i mean, i think the bag ministration genuinely is trying to do that. but the question is whether the american political system will allow him to do this because was the same with a bomb as healthcare package. by the time you had handed out favors to all the lobby groups behind the democratic party. by the time you watered down the project, so as not to lose moderate democratic support. and you know, trying hopelessly to get republican support. the whole thing was a complete shambles. i mean, that is what, what is risked in biden's package as well, but also quite simply him, he just may not get most of it because he will not get the,

the support of the senate. he will and of course that's also because he's, he can't get the support to some of his and senators, what you learn about the us administrations. and it's one reason i think why they do me concentrate so much on foreign affairs where they can look strong. magnetism is america has become a very difficult place to govern. it is very, very difficult to introduce really reformist measures in america any more. and partly because ultimately everything goes up to the supreme court, which is now close dominated by the republicans and in just a few phrases, given that the you are work for an institution of such an ambitious title, an institute for responsible state craft. what do you count as responsible, statecraft, especially in the american context. prudence, prudence, caution, concentration on domestic reform, domestic strength of the united states and her attempts no

defense or real american and west european interests. but fairly narrow liam carefully define and also i mean above all speaking as a realist, a real study of what are your own vital interests and what are the vital interests of other major countries. and whenever possible, do not challenge the vital interests of other major countries because that way lies catastrophe. i guess that could work for russia as well. so while dr. leven, thank you very much for your time, has been great pleasure talking to you. thank you so much and thank you for watching hope to see you again next week on well to part. ah

mm hm. mm hm. all those driven by dreamers shaped by center some of those with ah, who dares sinks? we dare to ask a

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