i want to give it big thank you to our friend andy grammar, you're the best. >> thank you for having me. >> don't forget to check out his album magazines or novel deluxe. rita wilson, eugene. all right, have a good weekend. >> thanks, again. somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you some money. my job isn't just to entertain but to educate and teach you. and put it in context. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me @jimcramer.
[ bull bellowing ] e -- or it pulls up lame. the s&p climbing 1. 64%, nasdaq falling 1.85%. wow. what's been driving the run? simple. oil. or more exactly the fading fears that declining oil would cause a credit crunch that could seize up the world's banks. c and send the global economy back into recession. will the strength continue? one way to find out. let's go to the game plan. as an old ink stained newspaper person who covered homicide i don't want to bury the lead. the fed speaks wednesday. i'm concerned that with oil coming back so hard the fed has lost the principal reason. fed is afraid of wages coming back and even as it's stagnant the oil rally is in fair face.
statement although i don't expect an actual rate hike. i wonder if we aren't too bullish about the run in oil. i will have more on that later in the show. we should never forget we want equilibrium where the oil companies aren't wiped out, taking the lenders with them, but the consumer is saving money all the the pump and could spend more at the retail or restaurant. monday we have a wild one. 99 times out of a hundred i couldn't care less about this company called travel sent ers of america. this outfit has a handle on filling stations along the interstate highway system. crucial to my thesis that oil may have bottomed is increased use of gasoline that no one is talking about. who would know more about that than these guys. there was a surprising draw down of gasoline when we got wednesday's inventory numbers. was it a fluke? i want to know. maybe we can get answers on the
we hear from 3-d systems, a company we profiled as part of the rise and fall series. if you really want 3-d technology, alcoa has the best. that stock remains one of my faves. tuesday, filled with controversy. first we'll get the much awaited quarterly report from valeant and it would do wonders for the drug industry if they got their act together. when we discuss winning retailers we should have children's place. i suspect it will deliver again. after the close tuesday we have results from oracle which is trading for less than 14 times next year's earnings. that's cheap historically. i lack a catalyst to get behind it. it hasn't been able to blow away the numbers like salesforce, its competitor, does. could this be the one where the
at these low prices, awfully hard to bet against them. i cannot wait for cbs's analyst meeting on tuesday. it's a big one. always good. the ceo is outspoken and will make you wish you own the stock. the trade of the week might be buying cbs into the analyst day. les regales us with the projections, promise and talks about the masters of tradition unlike any other. march madness and thursday night football. le one macro number might play a role el in the thinking even on the eve of the fed meeting. that's the retail sales data. when i look back at the february market one of the numbers that allowed them to rebound was the january retail sales figures. they were stronger than expected. to clarify that we weren't going into recession, if the retail
bet tuesday could be a rough day as there will be many commentators chattering that the fed needs to tighten given the strength in retail. keep in mind the rate hike chatter will grow louder after a strong number. don't forget next week we have another super tuesday contests. donald trump can take it off. he has a big night. get ready for serious protectionist rhetoric and china bashing that could cause free traders more than a little agita. besides the meeting thursday we have earnings from fed ex at the ep center of global commerce. this is one of the last stocks left in the world that can impact a complete day's trading. because of the being few sieve or township beat about world trade.p the stock is cheap but unless business is accelerating the rally from the bottom it had seems very vulnerable.
amazon developing the fleet but the analysts are risk averse on the conference call and they will try to build the model, not get the skinny we need. here is another one we want to hear better things from. williams sonoma. we profiled this one pondering what went wrong. how did it get eclipsed by tgx home goods? one of my favorite companies is expedia. championed for ages called home away. we want to hear if they will with the multi billion dollar there are many reasons why expedia is under valued. it's the finest online travel organization but i hope it flushes out the true value of the latest acquisition. a month ago the tech world was
from linkedin and tableau software. the twin declines impacted the stock of adobe. it has a terrific cloud business that was somehow lumped in with the two jokers.om that was a big mistake. how big? we'll find out when they report next thursday. i expect good things. if we get oil related sell-off ahead of the quarter, pounce on adobe. i'm worried about retail and i hope my fears aren't confirmed by friday when we have the breakfast of earnings from tiffany. the company is a serial overpromiser and underdeliverer. when they lowered expectations to where even they can be beaten. that makes the stock an intriguing trade. they are a terrific retailor that came up with every excuse in the book. that's what makes me optimistic about this quarter.
this lower guide dance. if tiffany fails this time, you know what i will do? i'm going to break out the wall of shame. let's not lose sight of the prize. the bottom line is the fed is all anybody will be talking about. if the fed does nothing we'll have the fifth good week in a row. talking about rate hikes or gives us one, be prepared for a huge repeel of this amazing rally. i say we take calls. let's go to justin in new york. justin. >> caller: what's up, jim? big boo-yah.ha i'm a long time holder of expedia for five years. le lucky enough to get trip adviser out of it. i want your opinion. should i hold on for the long term, buy more or sell both stocks?on >> i think expedia is a winner. the stock has run up in anticipation of the analyst meeting.g. if it sells off you have to pick some up.ck [ buy, buy, buy ] i like expedia and the
ed in michigan. ed. >> caller: jim, thanks for taking my call. >> of course. >> caller: you talked about accidental high yielderers and the building might get caught. dividend gets tough. is it okay to buy a stock like potash? >> no, no, no. it's a commodity. the ag business isn't strong. i don't want you to do that. i never like to reach for yield. well, no. periodically it's worth it. i don't want you to do it. ix-nay on that one. the fed is back on the front burner. depending what it does next week could be another champion or very, very bad. on "mad" tonight ulta faced an ugly sell-off a month ago. last night's earnings were a thing of beauty. where should you stand with the stock? i'm investigating. that wasn't the only stock winning the season.
paid off right into the reports. and then nr g energy fell 56% in 2015. up big today. has the utility regained energy? i'm taking a look at the rise and then the fall. so why don't you stick with cramer? >> announcer: don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer on twitter. have a question? tweet cramer, #madtweets. send jim an e-mail to email@example.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc. miss something?
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how could the stock market have been so wrong about ulta salon, the nation's largest beauty retailer that roared higher today, up 17%. hallelujah after reporting a fabulous quarter. i have been a believer in it for ages but a month ago there was a sell-off at ulta that took the stock from 181 down to 152 dollars in a matter of days and
february 19. how could people have gotten so bearish practically overnight on a company that's clearly doing incredibly well? initially ulta got slammed as part of a sell off in virtually every high growth stock under the sun. in february it was blind sided by an ominous report from the short selling research firm which classified the stock as a strong sell. [ sell, sell, sell ] with an $88 price target. something that led you to think it would be a gigantic downdraft in the name. what was behind the sell call and does it hold water after the tremendous numbers we got last night from ulta. let's see. let me give you background. we'll dig deeper into what happened. for those of you who don't know, one of the hottest growth
been like that for years. in part by create ing an amazing shopping experience that can't beat amazon because they have beauty salons built into the stores along with the retail side of things and they are putting up stores on top of 874 locations they have already across 48 states. despite everything ulta has going for it, the stock was derailed by the broader sell-off in february as well as by commentary by estee lauder about a promotional holle day season. essential it was a garden variety pullback where investors were panicked and sold off the winners like ultra. they were raising cash. people wanted to take the money and run. after the stock started rebounding a little bit, preshens point research group which i had never heard of
brutal 81-pages on ulta salon with the really ominous, over the top cover titled "high growth retail, it's great until it's not." [ house of pain ] although this report is verbose and seems full of purposefully complicated detail that almost seems designed to fill up space in 81 pages, yeah, the actual argument they made against ulta is simple. it boils down to three points. one, ulta's strategy of aggressively growing has brought the company to a point of saturation. in other words, these bears believe there is no room room for growth. ulta said the long term goal is 874 stores but the report says there was an independent
store base and concluded that new locations are being opened closer and closer to each other with more stores in less dense and lower income areas. the combination of these factors led the report to conclude that ulta will experience a dramatic erosion in same store sales growth which is the all important key metric in the retail business as we taught you. they predicted cannibalization like they said ulta was the donner party waiting to happen. the second part of the short thesis, they believed ulta's management arbitrarily increased the store count guidance from 1,000 to 1200 in june of 2012 to create the illusion of a long runway. they allege ulta did it to pump up the stock before dutching it
if the real ceiling is 1,000 stores then ulta is closer to saturating the market than we'd like to think. finally the report said wall street is too focused on the headline same store sales numbers which they believe masked two crucial things. the fact that traffic growth is outpacing average ticket growth which makes them think ulta is bringing in customers by discounting the merchandise and second they point out ulta includes e-commerce in same store sales figures they claim creates an illusory effect. put it together and you have one big fat nasty hit piece against ulta salon. it was a first class hatchet job. but is it true? let me go over each item. has ultale reached the point of saturation? the answer is no way. if this were happening we'd notice it in the numbers. generally when a retailler hits saturation it's gradual and you
the stores. that's not the case here. ulta has been adding a hundred new stores annually for years now and in fact the same store sales and the retail ones not including online have been accelerating up 6.1% in 2013, 8% in 2014 and 10% last year not to mention the 10.4% number when they shot the lights out last night. if anything, that's a sign of too few stores, not too many. beyond the numbers i think this argument misunderstands ulta's business. particularly of the salons which bring people in and cause them to spend a lot more money than the typical customer. on last night's conference call, fabulous ceo mary dillon said the customers who came in for the salon spend two and a half times as much money as the nonsalon customers. you can only process so many
there could be room for ulta to add new locations than the guys seem to believe. the fact is this is one of the few retailers that can't beat amazon where the new stores are proven to do more good than harm to other locations. closer stores make it more likely you can see a specialist if your regular person is full. what about that ulta's same store sales are about to fall off a cliff? long-term it's probably not unreasonable to expect the company won't be able to -- i mean, to keep generating these double digit comps is difficult. i won't be surprised if the numbers desell rate eventually. but lately they have been accelerating. couldn't last night's 12.5% overall same store sales growth, the best numbers in our retail universe we follow in cramerica. if these short sellers are waiting for a tipping point, i say don't hold your breath. ulta's sales growth in 2016 and
the ceo has a long, long track record of underpromising and overdelivering. upod. as for the idea that the same store sales are misleading, that's bogus. this is a family friendly show or i would use a different word. they saw e-commerce numbers with these numbers as well but ulta is one of the few rae retailers with a successful strategy. it's a positive, not a negative. however the ultimate reputation of the bear thesis came last night when ulta did shoot the lights out with a fabulous top and bottom line beat coupled with strong guidance. honestly, this was gettable if you watched the show and listened to what ulta's ceo has had to say when she's been on the show. she's been fabulous. here is the bottom line. short sellers are just as prone to wishfulle thinking as the
job on ulta salon last month was the ultimate in bearish wishful thinking. the truth is ulta is doing amazingly well f. you listen to the bears you missed a huge move in the stock. in fact, you have been stampeded by the bulls. and i think ulta is not done the tram trampling. there is so much "mad money" ahead. wonder what's a stock picker's paradise? i have six plays that really paid off this earnings season. then the rise and fall in energy prices may have left you with a case of whiplash. how is the up and down action impacting companies in the space? i'm eye, nrg energy and the move in oil can be traced back to one largele call. was it on your radar screen? it was on ours. let's find out. i suggest you stick with cramer! uh, hello geico?... yeah, i was just talking about your emergency roadside service and how it's available 24/7 and then our car overheated...
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now that earnings season is behind us, i think it is worth taking a look back at what we have learned during the reporting period and what really strikes me is that we have seen an incredible range of results from the retailers in restaurants. quarters to extremely impressive ones. at least when it comes to retail and restaurants this has become a true stock picker's market. tonight i want to highlight some of the winners and we all know the losers.
show you where the opportunities can be found. let's start with retail. real shockers here. jcpenney. home depot is not a shocker. and urban outfitters reported much stronger than expected quarters than anyone anticipated. [ applause ] with jcpenney you had a case where the expectations had gotten way too low albeit for a good reason. the company had negative earnings for eight quarters in a row. while the consensus called for them to make money, the analysts didn't predict the massive up tick in earnings the company delivered. a gigantic 16 cent earnings beat off a 23-cent basis. that's amazing. that's why the stock jumped 14 points since that day and the stock has not looked back. it was that impressive. this quarter was a declaration that jcpenney's turn around is for real.
marvin ellison. under his remarkable leadership jcpenney is taking back market share from other department stores thanks in part to major initiatives in categories like footwear, home goods and a smart partnership they have with sephora. i think the turn will continue but maybe the easy money has been made. ellison, you have to come on the show. you did a great job. next, home depot blew away the numbers in late february. seven cent earnings beat. higher than expected revenues. terrific same store sales. excellent four-year guidance. the stock barely budged in response, largely because home depot, i mean, they have such a long track record of delivering great numbers. one more earnings beat was a yawner. that's ridiculous if you ask me but that's what happened. the company is taking share and taking names. some were actually upset that
indicate that 2016 would be back loaded i trust in home depot's ability to underpromise and overdeliver. the stock has a lot more room to run. i'm about to buy plants for spring planting there. how about urban outfitters which delivered an astonishing quarter earlier this week. no one expected this. after spending ages lost in the wilderness, urban has gotten its groove back. 2015 was a difficult year for them. they learned their lessons and were able to pivot away from apparel which has been weak across the country and towards housewears, beauty producers, intimates which are red hot and shoes which have been on fire. suddenly the brand is back from the dead. anthropologie is doing fabulous. beauty store within a store. nobody expected them to deliver an actual earnings beat. while same store sales were in negative territory the numbers
urban outfitters finally understands what the customers want. i would not be surprised if the stock can't go even higher still. that's retail. what about the restaurants? we have to examine panera bread, domino's and dart. panera reported a month ago and the stock shot up. what do they do right? they delivered a strong bottom line along with 3.6% same store sales growth. this was gettable because the company has been telling you for two years now about the 2.0 store renovation plan. as the company continues to convert stores to the new format bringing in a lot of additional customers. more tech oriented and the numbers are getting better. i bet it's not done going higher. it is a large position in my charitable trust which you can follow along by reading at action owners plus.com. next up, domino's pizza. gettable.
spectacular results year after year ever since the ceo really started turning things around in 2010. so when domino's supported a five cent earnings beat in late february with higher than expected revenues up 15.3% year over year, an incredible turbo charged same store sales growth up 10.7% domestically. 8.6% overseas it shouldn't have been surprising. the comps were so incredible that the stock shot up 13% later that day in response. domino's is in a league of its own. it's so advanced. they have made it insanely easy to order a pizza via the company. you can go through a terrific app on a smartphone or send me pizza and no cheese. hold the cheese. i think i just ordered domino's
that's my executive producer. let's talk about dar den, the parent of olive garden. this past wednesday management forecasts much higher than expected earnings sending the stock surging up 3.6% in one day. now darden -- there. okay? there she is. all right? super. enough, enough. come back here. darden is one -- it's like johnny carson. tarden is one of the most direct beneficiaries of cheaper gasoline prices. beyond that, this is a major restructuring story. at this point it's clear the term is so for real. people keep doubting.
each quarter the earnings get better and management has a gigantic buy back they have put to work when the stock pulls back. what made me feel good is the same store sales growth which to me signals long-term prosperity. the story is in the early stages. here's the bottom line. with the earnings season now in the rear-view mirror it's clear that you need to pick your spots in the retail and restaurant sector which is spotty. there were a lot of blow-ups. jcpenney, home depot, urban outfitters, panera bread, domino's and darden. most of the names have a lot more room to run. i think we should take calls. larry in massachusetts. larry. >> jim, nice to hear your voice recovering. >> it's getting there. it's been a challenge. it's been challenging this week. go ahead. >> caller: on a vacation seminar
teachings i was amazed to watch a vendor swipe my credit card on her cell phone to complete a purchase. i'm not sure where in the hierarchy the stock is square. >> i have to tell you. thank you for calling. you are consistent and terrific. i thought the call was great. the stock spiked and then it gave it up. i thought that was wrong. i thought it was a good quarter. i believe in square but the action in the stock certainly left me feeling that perhaps i'm too bullish. they were a mixed bag in the earnings sector. we have so much more "mad money" ahead. today's move high, price of oil on the rise.
with the market continuing to roar higher and the price of oil on the rise again. >> i'm talking about nrg energy. with sizable alternative energy. the stock managed to lose 56% of its value last year. you don't see that kind of decline in the state utilities stock. they are slow, steady businesses. nrg's stock stalled out at the same time as nrg prices peaked
fall. the stock made a return with nrg rebounding which begs the question, does it make sense to start buying the stock once again or is the story here as broken as the stock was. okay. the thing about nrg is it's unusual. this company is one of the first utilities to invest in renewable energy. in order to diversify fossil fuels. nrg spent money building out the renewable infrastructure, especially solar. back when the prices of coal and oil and natural gas were higher than they are today. for a while it seemed nrg totally reinvented the renewable energy business as the company would establish long-term contracts that would ensure that they wouldle make a decent return on investment in various renewable power sources. that's not the only area where nrg spent money. in 2009 the company made acquisitions in the retail side
the power distribution side. in 2012 they bought gen-on energy for 1.7 billion dollars. the deal gave them more exposure to california and the northeast. for years we talked about nrg's visionary utility that was miles ahead of the competition in terms of embracing the future. but remember, the whole time they were pouring money into renubls, oil and gas prices were higher than they are now. as long as energy prices were high, nrg stock rallied. once oil and natural gas started to go down, nrg tumbled. the stock peaked at $38 in june of 2014. not coincidentally, aaround the time oil peaked. why did it get killed with falling energy prices? the you till should be agnostic about it. they buy coal and natural gas. they don't mine it out of the ground themselves. nrg made itself unique thanks to the renewable energy investments
renewables perform much worse when fossil fuels are cheaper. they are competing against fossil fuels. paying up for solar panels is a different proposition on oil at $100 a barrel versus less than $40. in the fall of 2014 nrg announced a realignment initiative where the company reorganized all the business under the nrg home, nrg business and nrg renew umbrellas. this was supposed to be a positive. a way to highlight how the company could bring out value by breaking itself up. all it ended up doing was to confuse investors, make it difficult to understand what they owned was nrg a regular utility, an alternative energy play. a hybrid. shareholders didn't like what they were seeing here. renubl energy fuelled nrg's rise. once it went out of style on wall street it drove the stock lower. however even in december 2014
declined dramatically, nrg's ceo still came on "mad money" and said he expects people to talk about nrg within the residential solar space, sometime in the near future. also remarked they were a company in transition from a fossil fuel pass to a part fossil fuel, part clean energy future. mm-hmm. but that was not what the stock market wanted to hear. the stock continued to fall despite news from the company. nrg reported strong quarters but it didn't seem to matter as the company had taken on too much wind and solar exposure and investors were concerned they were sinking too much cash into the alternative energy projects with not enough results. shareholders started clamoring for a better plan for nrg about how to balance the renewable investments with the traditional power plant business. then last june, oh, boy, the "wall street journal" ran a story saying one of the solar
shooting targets facing serious execution problems. again, that's not what the market wanted to hear, given how much nrg shelled out for a business that had become hated once energy prices began to plummet. nrg addressed the worries in september when they laid out the nrg reset plan. basically this was a major corporate restructuringing that would spin off the clean energy business as a separate company. late 2015 was not a great time to spin off the alternative energy play. stock tumbled 6% on the day the news came out. this 180 from energy management less than a year before they couldn't stop talking about the clean energy future. totally under mined investor trust in the company. it was a huge about face that made the executives here seem clueless. apparently the board of directors agreed. it was announced david crane will be stepping down as ceo. by that point the damage was
there was an amount of debt and the stock continued to tank. as it became clear they had no idea what to do with the cheaper energy environment. live by renewables, die by renewables. nrg rebounded in recent weeks along with the price of oil. even as management announced a massive 80% dividend cut last month to shore up the balance sheet. where do i come down? it's simple. the bottom line is owning a utility should never be this fraught. you shouldn't need to fret about how the company is doing. how the company is spending its money or whether the dividend will be slashed or why the utility has massive exposure to a business like renewable energy that's sensitive to wings in fossil fuel prices. you want a utility, stay away from nrg. go with american electric power. con-ed and if you want a solar play, buy one that makes fortunes doing it.
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it is time. it is time for the lightning round. you say the name of the stock. i don't know the calls or the name of the stock ahead of time. i tell you whether to buy or sell. when you hear this sound -- -- then the lightning round is over. are you ready, skee-daddy? time for the lightning round on cramer's "mad money." >> joe in minnesota, joe. >> caller: first time caller. i want to know if i should buy,
>> i love the company so much. i will ask for your pullback back under a hundred before you pull the trigger. let's go to sergio in florida. sergio. >> caller: boo-yah, cramer. twitter is a long term buy. what do you think? >> i have a small position in the charitable trust. i'm not seeing growth there. longer term, someone will figure something out. william in florida. william. >> caller: thanks for having me on. i want to know what you thought of royal dutch shell. >> i would rather have a go ats oxidental. we are not done yet. betsy in california. betsy. >> caller: my stock is ringcentral. no news from the company and what's going on? >> i have to do an investigation.
marks. that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the lightning round. >> announcer: the lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade. >> hey jim, i hope you're feeling better. boo-yah! >> thank you. i'm feeling a little better, thank you for asking. what's up? >> great show and great staff. >> you're very kind. my staff's bringing me this tea in the middle of the show, so i can continue to do it. [ slurp ] >> shout out to my family, i love you. >> i love your family, too. massive shout out. but i can't really shout, because when i do, my voice cracks. [ slurp ] >> i wear haynes brand t-shirts. a little, tmi. tmi. i could show you the other haynes brands. [ scream ] well, you know what, i could just -- all right. nevermind. i wear them to work everyday.
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should we call this the great goldman sachs oil rally? hallelujah >> that's a reasonable call. why? this morning when goldman raised the low end of the predictive range for oil from $20 to $25 it signalled to me maybe the credit crunch for oil and oil-related entities had at last perhaps abated. why not?
the equity markets for cash and demand is picked up for gasoline as appears to be the case and we know so many projects have been cancelled that oil production is likely to decline next year this call has real gravitas. the simple truth is that bank of america, jpmorgan and wells fargo have become targets of short sellers when they revealed the considerable expo sure to the oil patch and financials can bring down any market with their weakness. in other words, no matter how much darden, six flags, dollar general or mcdonald's may benefit from lower oil and gasoline, the big increase in bad loans from the big three banks at the same time the fed can't raise rates because of prospective oil related credit kruchblg was too much for this market to other come. that's why today's rally has more staying power as opposed to the rally we had yesterday based on the false carry over from europe.
james bullard, smart fell. fed vote ing member. you may have to rethink your newfound dovish analysis. that's the price the stock market will have to pay for the end of worries about a credit crunch in the oil patch. the rock of a fed rate hike is better than the hard place of hundreds of billions in oil credit losses. including perhaps at least $150 billion from the big banks. consider a potential rate hike is a necessary evil for the moment. fed i still think is too hawkish. we have been buyingle schlumberger for my charitable trust. we like schlumberger because it is already doing well despite the design in stock. speculators may want to
said they don't need financing. namely anadarko or how about beaten down ones that may spring back if they have to raise cash. here i'm thinking about whiting petroleum or wpx. those are for only real risk taking speculators. suffice it to say when the biggest most correct bear says perhaps the bottom has been put in, that's good enough to spark a rally so the largest real worry out there gets taken off the table. that's a recipe for higher stock prices at least until oil gets so expensive we need to start cutting numbers for the companies that use too much of it. stick with cramer. someone's hacked all our technology. technology... say, have you seen all the amazing technology in geico's mobile app? mobile app? look. electronic id cards, emergency roadside service,
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single best retail performance so far in 2016. i've got to tell you i think the stock is not done going higher. i like to say there is always a bull market somewhere. i promise to find it for you on "mad money." i'm jim cramer. i will see you monday! we are straddled. narrator: tonight on "1st look," it's time for some high impact exercise. we get pumped up with tom schwartz from "vanderpump rules." oh, [bleep]. i want my mom. narrator: and skip the gym to climb with the winner of "american ninja warrior." we're not worthy. narrator: and discover the coolest ways to get fit. it's burning. it is burning. narrator: all starting right now.