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tv   This Week With George Stephanopoulos  ABC  November 6, 2016 9:00am-10:00am EST

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>> announcer >> announcer: starting right now on a special election edition of "this week," just two days to go. >> crooked hillary clinton. you know, that term is really stuck. >> who acts like this? i'll tell you who, a bully. >> announcer: after a campaign of normal election. >> announcer: the final hours. hillary clinton calling on her star supporters. >> you ready to rock for hillary? >> let's prove that love trumps hate. >> announcer: and overnight, trump rushed off the stage. >> nobody said it was going to be easy for us. >> announcer: now, america heading to the ballot box. >> this movement is coming together. >> you haven't voted?
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>> announcer: our country at a crossroads. >> this is an election about change. the real question is, what kind of change? >> announcer: the very latest on the final stretch and the fight to the finish. 48 hours, 2 candidates, 1 new president, who will be number 45? from abc news it's "this week." here now chief anchor george stephanopoulos. good mo 48 hours to go in a campaign that's been anything but normal. unpredictable, bitter and ugly, two of the least liked candidates in history slugging out out with so much at stake. hillary clinton and donald trump in a last-minute scramble now. hopscotching across the same handful of states as our latest tracking poll shows clinton edging up. now five points ahead, 48 to 43. her voters showing new signs of enthusiasm. and record numbers of americans have already turned out to vote.
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democrats buoyed by a latino surge in florida and nevada. the gop encouraged in ohio and high anxiety. one sign that trump's rally last night in reno, the secret service rushed the stage. look at it there after someone in the crowd yelled gun. there was no gun. no threat. but tensions could not be higher in these final hours. let's get straight to our correspondents out with the candidates from the very start. tom llamas with donald trump. cecilia vega with hillary begin with you in philadelphia. good morning. >> reporter: george, good morning to you. for the clinton campaign it is all about the map. we are seeing her campaign stops until now largely centered around these early voting state, but this strategy as election day nears seems to be shifting of her campaign stops now focused on states where voting is mostly happening on tuesday. this mad dash to the finish line, take a look. we've got a map for you. she has touched down in six battleground states in the final four days of this race, most of
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in pennsylvania. we also see her calling on a who's who, a long list of celebrity friends from beyonce and jay z on friday in ohio to bon jovi overnight in florida and right here in philly, overnight, katy perry and hillary clinton together on stage and the goal, of course, is that she's hoping she's big names will push supporters to the poll, george, in this final stretch. >> now, cecilia, the clinton team does seem a little bit concerned going back to pennsylvania, going to michigan, as well. what else are t they're worried about and what gives them the most hope? >> reporter: they're hopeful, george, about some scenes like this. early voting, take a look. we've got some video for you. this is nevada a long line of voters mostly latinos waiting hours to cast their ballots. that gives them hope. you mentioned it, michigan. they say they are seeing tightening in the polls there and we are seeing some scheduled changes. hillary clinton heading there tomorrow along with president obama. he will be there too and, george, former president clinton is there today.
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he is in denver. some last-minute shifts for the trump campaign too. >> reporter: george, good morning. that is so true. a look at the map right now. kellyanne conway, trump's campaign manager, calls florida, iowa, ohio and north carolina their core four. they need those states. but they're also hitting six other states and there was a surprise yesterday, they canceled an event in wisconsin and now going to minnesota today. some people say this is a desperate move because a republican hasn't won since 1972. that was richard nixon, donald trump is going to stop at an airport hangar there during a vikings game. when asked why he's doing it, donald trump said they saw a promising poll and that's why they're going there. now, donald trump is hitting so many states, he's hosting so many events and he's using that grueling schedule that marathon campaigning as an attack on hillary clinton. here's what he had to say. >> she has no energy. you know, you need energy to help this country. like, for instance, i'm going to
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every day. you need energy here, folks. she goes home and she goes to sleep. >>'s, tom, picking up on what cecilia is talking about, that state of michigan had a big surprise for hillary clinton back in the primaries where bernie sanders surprised everybody by winning. the trump campaign banking on the same thing. >> he is headed to michigan and will be at that event and invested time and resources in that state but something that's concerning them is the state of nevada. just last night trump announced a rigged election because one of the polling locations stayed open two hours later. that's because people were waiting in line for two hours and as cecilia had mentioned, those large groups of latino voters voting early definitely worrying the trump campaign. george. >> thanks, guys. tay safe out there. now let's bring in jon karl. we will take a deeper dive at the electioral map. your latest ratings. >> the map is still favoring hillary clinton. although the battleground has
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the red states are states that we have rated advantage trump. blue, advantage, hillary clinton, gray are the toss-ups. if you look at it right now, george, hillary clinton even just with the states that already advantage her is at 275 electoral vote, enough to become president. >> clearest path to victory. but she's got several paths. >> yeah, she has several paths. the first is simply to hang on to those blue state, particularly right here, this is her big blue fire wall, wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania, states that they are looki week, states that trump has shown signs of life. if she hangs on to that they wins narrowly but the other one is this, this really does it, the state of florida. if hillary clinton can win the state of florida and right now they feel confident down there, it is lights out for donald trump. check this out. even if he manages to win pennsylvania and wisconsin, he doesn't get what he needs. >> yeah, the latino vote in florida so far that early vote astounding.
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what is trump's best path? >> two. first of all he can win every single one of the toss-up state, so all of them. he runs the take on the toss-up states. even there he comes up short. he wins the state of nevada, gets to 269, 269. then he needs to win the single congressional district, the second congressional district up in maine. that is one path that would get him to 270. the other path he has, again, to win every single one of the of those states in the industrial midwest, for instance, if he takes pennsylvania, that would get him to where he needs, but, get, to do that he till needs to win every single toss-up state. >> jon karl, thanks very much. and we are joined by the chair of the clinton campaign, john podesta. john, thanks for joining us this morning. you saw our poll, five-point lead. where do you see the race. >> well, look, we feel pretty good, george, but we're leaving nothing to chance and will run through the tape. there is a lot of work to do
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polls close, tuesday night. so, we're feeling good, we're closing strong, but we've got a tremendous amount of work to do. we've got a million volunteers across the country who are doing that work for us. >> it seems like you got a lot of work to do in michigan. the trump campaign pushing very hard there going to minnesota as well. they think they can break down your blue fire wall in the upper midwest. >> well, look, we feel good about minnesota. you know, he made that last-minute change to abandon wisconsin and go to minnesota. but with respect to michigan, you know, as jonathan karl pointed out as we hold on to nevada that looks strong in the early vote. michigan votes for the most part on election day. you know, we think we have the -- you know, this race over. we're going to get over our 270 electoral votes and going where the votes are. we're going to finish strong. we feel good about michigan. and the rest of the -- of those
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in florida yesterday. we feel like we've got to do work but we've got an edge in north carolina so there are a lot of paths to our victory. but we want to hold on to the states that we think ought to be in the democratic column and michigan is one of them. >> you mentioned those, florida and nevada where you've seen that surge in latino voting over the early vote period and you saw donald trump out in nevada last night saying the fact that they kept the polls open in las vegas on friday night till 10:00 rigged. >> yeah, you know, that's ridiculous. people were in line and they got the people who were in line got to vote and they as normal kept the votes -- kept the polling place open so that they could vote but you know with donald trump, if he's losing everything is rigged. when he lost the emmys it was rigged. when he lost the primaries, you know, those occasions when he lost the primaries in the republican run-up, it was rigged. so if he's losing it's rigged. but i think the american people
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they know that this is going to be a fair election, republican voting officials across the country have said that. marco rubio has said it, paul ryan has said it. we'll see a surge of voting you noted the latino surge in florida and in nevada. we're feeling very good about that and, you know, i think we're going to keep working to make sure that we're successful. >> surge in latinos but african-americans have been lagging. know, if you look at florida, for example, we've now got more early vote amongst the african-american community that -- than we had in 2012. as voting sites expanded in north carolina, the vote numbers went up. and, you know, in 2012 the first african-american president was running for re-election but we're going to try to match his numbers and we're feeling like our organization can keep
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hillary is going to be out in philadelphia tomorrow. you know, across in -- with lebron james today in ohio. we are very glad to be with beyonce and jay z, donald trump inexplicably attacked them last night so i'm not sure that's smart for him but we'll do what we can to make sure that people are hearing her message that we're stronger together, we're going to build a country that's united. we're goi we'll make the right investments to create an economy that's working for everyone, not just those at the top. >> that message has been somewhat drowned out since the announcement from james comey he was looking at more e-mails and that e-mail investigation. other leaks from the fbi and tim kaine, your vice presidential candidate has now said that some in the fbi are, quote, actively working in support of donald trump. do you believe that? >> well, look, you know, we're all disturbed -- first of all by
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precedent, was over the advice of the leaders in the justice department. you know, i'm not challenging mr. comey's motivation. but i do think it was unwarranted. it was a mistake and i think that republican and democratic former justice department officials have come out and questioned the move that he made and with respect to the leaks that have gone on throughout the week with rudy giuliani saying he's hearing leaks from the fbi, i don't know what to i know elijah cummings sent a letter to the justice department asking the inspector general to investigate those leaks but i'm not going to -- you know, our job is really just to get those doors knocked, the phone calls made to get our people out to the polls. we'll let other people worry about that. the most important number i saw yesterday was 7 million voter contacts we did just on one day
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about. let other people worry about the rest. >> you said you wanted mr. comey to come out with more information. do you still want that or better now nothing to come out until after the election. >> i think that we always said that this would -- was, you know, would end the same place it ended last june when he said that no further action was warranted. it wasn't even a close case. there's nothing that we believe that in the fbi, the e-mails that he's looking at that will change that outcome so if he's got more information, let him put it out. that's what we've said right from the beginning of this controversy and saga. >> it did seem to cause hillary clinton the chance, her words to go high in these final ten days. you know, we'll have a bitterly divided country no matter who wins on tuesday. if hillary clinton wins, how is she going to be able to begin to heal those divisions?
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she's out talking about. that's what she was saying in florida. that she's going to be a president for everyone, for people who supported her, people who didn't support her. she's closing with a two-minute ad that is optimistic, that talks about what she wants to do for the country. in contrast, donald trump has a two-minute ad that looks like it's kind of ripped from a "batman" movie. he kind of lives in a dark place and he's run this campaign on division, bigotry, we're going to try t about what we can do to make sure every kid has a chance to succeed, that's what she's done her whole life. that's what she'll do as president and, you know, she's gotten success with that. working with republicans and democrats to do things like the children's health insurance program, like making sure that first responders got health care that they needed. the national guardsmen and women got the health care they needed. she knows how to work across the aisle. that's what she's going to do as
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we are joined by the chair of the republican party reince priebus. mr. priebus, thanks for joining us. you heard john podesta right there. our poll has it a five-point lead for hillary clinton. new nbc poll, four-point lead for hillary clinton. are you fighting from behind? >> no, i don't think we're fighting from behind. we've got the momentum, george. i mean that's the difference in this election. you know, you can close and get stronger and stronger to the finish line. you know more than anyone momentum is everything you need and there's no question that over the last week and a amount of momentum. it's helping obviously his chances and it's also helping all those senators out there that are running so we feel good. and we think that the american people are typing out in fact hillary clinton is crooked and that she has potentially broken the law and i just heard the interview about, you know, how can hillary clinton heal? well, she's going to have a hard time healing the country because number one she won't win but number two even if she does she may have committed serious
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>> based on what -- the only conclusion we've had from the fbi director so far is that no reasonable person would have progression cuted. >> that's their conclusion so far but they're also actively reviewing 650,000 e-mails and i can assure you that, you know, we already know that many so of them are not duplicative. 650,000 e-mails on anthony weiner's laptop suddenly show up about a month ago. the investigation is continuing and, look, i think the american people have serious concerns about it. i would and i think most people do and they think that obviously this is going to be a big liability for her. >> going forward in these final 48 hours you're making a big play in michigan and seems like donald trump has turned away from your home state of wisconsin, what's going on in michigan right now and what is the blue state in the upper midwest where you have the best chance of winning? >> well, he hasn't turned away from wisconsin, george. mike pence was there yesterday
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it's even possible he would go back to wisconsin tomorrow. so i mean i'm just want to put that out there. as far as michigan is concerned we have to look at our data and we went in -- we go in with 3,000 samples a night that matches public polling. it's an absolute toss-up and so when you look at a place like michigan where jobs have gone to mexico and china, people are out of work and people want things to get better, i think donald trump is offering that vision for the state of michigan. and as you know, it's all over. if i would have told you a year ago that we have a candidate that can win florida, ohio and michigan, we would say that's a candidate that is going to win so i think it's a great opportunity for us. >> you slipped something else in there that i think is significant. you're right michigan is significant but florida, perhaps even more and you've seen that latino surge down in florida right now. the democrats seem confident about that and they are breaking records with this early vote of
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>> yeah, but you're not saying and i know you're not doing it on purpose but there's 75,000 votes behind on party registration votes and early vote in florida today than they were four years ago so they're actually, you know, here's the thing, they're behind where they were four years ago. we lost florida by 75,000 votes four years ago. they're 75,000 votes behind today. and so the same thing in north carolina. they're about 100,000 votes behind in nor where they were four years ago. we went into election day, george, in north carolina four years ago down by 455,000 votes. we won north carolina. so everyone out there needs to understand that the early vote issue can only tell you so much. if you've got to look beyond the numbers. look at iowa. we're behind in iowa today in early vote. no one actually thinks we're going to lose iowa. but we're way ahead of where we were four years ago.
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ohio today. so, you know, when they're concentrating on cleveland two days before tuesday, they're not expanding the map in ohio, i can assure you. their plan -- their game plan has to be lock down cleveland, then expand through ohio. that's not what they're doing, george. >> ohio has been a tougher tate for them this time, no question about that, nevada, donald trump says that the signs from the early vote that state is rigged. do you believe that? >> well, look, you know that we're bound by so i'm not much fun on that subject because we're under court order from 1983 so it's an old, old case and that's donald trump's campaign that would be looking into something like that, not the rnc but we want to make it easy to vote for everybody. we want to make it something that everyone can participate in. we feel good that we're ahead of our pace in nevada as well but, look, you know, look at colorado, george. i don't think people are talking
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it is a jump ball in colorado so there are lots of pathways to getting the 270. >> if it doesn't turn out your way we're still waiting to see, donald trump says he'll take a look at what happens tuesday and decide whether or not to concede if, indeed the votes are going against him. right now a lot of the questions you've raised are starting to affect republican voters as well. about a quarter according to recent polls say that they're not going to accept the results if donald trump loses on tell republicans that they should accept the results? >> well, i think barring some sort of, you know, year 2000 type of an election, sure, i mean, if it's clear then obviously that would be the case. but i think what donald trump is talking about is simply not, number one, no one is going to concede everything. hillary clinton wouldn't concede everything. donald trump wouldn't concede
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forgo a legitimate recount opportunity like you had in 2000 days before an election. so i think that's really the issue. >> so you believe he'll accept a clear result? >> i do. and i think that the big issue, though, for donald trump is not you, but generally there is a huge media pile-on and it took obviously a big toll, i think, on the election. this total and complete obsession with every transgression and trump when we have another candidate that has totally using john podesta and his team's words screwed up everything that she's ever touched. and you look at russia. you look at libya. you look at benghazi,ing loo at her macy's and the clinton foundation, bill clinton inc. larry truman said the only way a politician can get rich is by being crooked. >> i think both sides -- i think both sides would say
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media. can assure you of that. >> i don't know too many people that 15 bleached computers and taken hatchets to blackberries and deleted 33,000 e-mails. >> you're just throwing out a lot of words there. it doesn't -- if doesn't counter the conclusion of james comey. no reasonable prosecutor would bring this case but let me ask you about -- >> that was in june, george. but that was in june. what did he say last week? he said that the e-mails that he anthony weiner's laptop could be pertinent. >> everything you were talking about happened before june. i want to -- >> she's created -- she's sold her position as secretary of state to give -- put money in her pocket and bill clinton's pocket. something is not right. come on. it's not normal behavior, george. you foe that. i'm saying something that average, normal people would listen to and say, it doesn't
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million a few years after leaving public office. it's bizarre. >> final question, if donald trump wins are you going to join him in the white house? >> no one is talking about that, george. i'm running the party and i love the job. >> reince priebus, thanks for joining us this morning. >> thank you, sir. you've heard from both parties. next we turn to the battlegrounds, martha raddatz on the trail with voters. the latest forecast from nate silver of fivethirtyeight. and expert analysis from our powerhouse roundtable. >> announcer: brought to you by pfizer. icine, it was an idea. a wild "what-if." so scientists went to work. they examined 87 different protein structures and worked for 12 long years. there were thousands of patient volunteers and the hope of millions. and so after it became a medicine, someone who couldn't be cured, could be.
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charles schwab. that was invigorating! you're probably wondering why i've just carved a giant wooden tiger. well, the answer is that a real one would maul me. i've crafted dr. whiskers here as a visual aid to show you that should you visit the lot, carmax associates will not pounce like tigers because people don't like that. come here to buy a car. dr. whiskers won't pounce. nobody will. this october has seen more than its share of surprises. is one more on the way? we have seen late ones before. back in 1992 a big iran-contra indictment dropped the friday before the election after the race moved away from george bush. >> you seem to say that you -- >> you ought the spend the whole time -- >> no, but -- >> because i don't.
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dui arrest broke the thursday before the vote. >> there's a report out tonight that 24 years ago i was apprehended in kennebunkport, maine, for a dui. that's an accurate story and why now, four days before an election. i got my suspicions. >> and in 2004, a bin laden tape boosted bush against john kerry. >> on "world news tonight," osama bin laden shows up on a videotape four days before the election. he tries toxp >> it's a reminder that we are engaged in a global war on terror. >> 48 hours to go. we're get the latest election forecast from nate silver next and ask which x factors he's thinking about and martha raddatz is out with voters in ohio and pennsylvania and our roundtable standing by with their final predictions. stay with us.
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if if we unlock the potential of this country and it's incredible, people, no dream is outside of our reach. >> when your kids and your grandkids ask what you did in 2016 when everything was on the line, i hope you'll be able to say, i voted for a better, stronger, fairer america. >> both candidates in pennsylvania getting all kinds of attention in these final hours. they're going to cap off their campaigns with big rallies in that state and as she has all year, our martha raddatz is on the trail there to talk to these all-important voters in the final hours. >> reporter: on the first of my trips to western pennsylvania last summer, i met monessen, pennsylvania, mayor luma -- >> you look at monessen.
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jobs. >> reporter: the mayor is a democrat who today is still undecided between trump and clinton. how big is this town? >> it used to be 23,000, 24,000. there's 7500 left. that's all that's left. >> reporter: he still can't quite believe that what remains of his town is now trump country. >> you look at a community that never ever had republican signs because it was no-no. you got trump again. you see. >> trump, trump, trump, trump. but yard signs aside, for generations the small towns of western pennsylvania have trended increasingly red. westmotherland county split 50/50 clinton/dole in 1996 and hasn't looked back. bush, bush, mccain, romney. at a diner in nearby bedford
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a little late. gary wants trump. >> and to make us the world leader once again that everybody looks to us as the world power once again. >> reporter: but while small towns in pennsylvania have gone rust re the suburbs are moving in the opposite direction. in past cycles the collar counties of philadelphia have been true toss-ups. this year they seem more solidly blue. but you voted republican in the past? >> i have. i voted i consider -- i'm registered democrat but i vote either way. i'm not really aligned to either. i'm going to vote for hillary today. >> reporter: it's a diverse middle class place trending younger with diverse opinions. >> i'm doing donald trump. >> reporter: and who are you voting for? >> i'm voting for hillary. so a little disagreement between you. >> we don't like to talk about it. >> reporter: a more educated population on average.
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for clinton. >> i'm a former federal prosecutor, former assistant united states attorney. she happened to be secretary of state when an unfortunate incident happened. the e-mails, you know, i think she admits that it was a probably a poor lapse of judgment. it was nothing further than that. >> reporter: delaware county's 30% nonwhite compared to 5% in mayor's westmo mayor's westmotherland county. when waver wavered. >> it's going to be hillary because i think she'll bring a different type of change regardless of what's going on with the whole e-mail thing. >> reporter: we started out assuming that the answer to our simple question how will swing state voters behave would have a complicated answer. and for some it really will be. >> i may write myself in for president of the united states because i'm probably more qualified. >> reporter: but, in fact, we
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have seen going back 30 years getting bluer and more diverse. small towns getting poorer and more conservative. and if those trends hold true on election day, the maps favor hillary clinton because there are just more people around philadelphia. we refer to these states as the rust belt as if they're one undifferentiated thing but maybe the old two americas, so close you drive between front >> martha raddatz on the ground. she'll be a big part of our coverage tuesday. more on where the race stands right now from the forecasting guru nate silver of fivethirtyeight. thanks for coming in. you made your bones in 2008, 2012 and nailed the election for barack obama. like everyone else you missed donald trump in the primaries so where does your forecast have it race right now. >> we show a three-point lead nationally for clinton. 2-1 favorite.
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was for obama four years ago where four years ago we had obama ahead in states totaling 320 some electoral votes. clinton as 270 so one state away from potentially losing the electoral college. rather be in her shoes than donald trump but it's not a terribly safe position. >> give her a 65.7 chance to win. win. you say she has a three-point lead. that was about obama was the sunday before the election four years ago yet i want to put this occupien the board. at that time you showed he had an 85.1% chance of winning. so, why the contrast right there. >> so, clinton is a lot weaker in the midwest where four years ago president obama was leading in ohio by four points. clinton's probably a couple of points behind there. iowa maybe the best poll in the country, the des moines register poll showed her down seven points in iowa. a state she'll probably lose.
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underperform among white noncollege voters. that's -- >> even though the national poll something about the same. >> even though -- so but it's contesting the electoral college and her electoral college polling in the swing states is weaker than obama's so this some sense it's a deceptively large or small lead for clinton in some ways where obama had a bigger lead than you'd thing, the other thing we see lots of polls that show numbers, clinton, 44%, trump, 40%. if you only have 44% of the vote that most of the undecided break in a certain way whereas it was four years ago obama, 49, romney, 46 so in that sense both candidates still need a good turnout on election day and still have their work cut out for them. >> we have seen a high early vote of 41 million americans voted. you don't pay that much attention to it. >> our model is designed to look at the public polling and if you want to look at anything else that you want, the early vote, then that's fine and i think
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but democrats also in 2014 told themselves a lot of stories about how they would be saved by the early vote and got wiped out across the board in the midtemperature, overestimate how well democrats would do so would be careful. with the exception of nevada, a hard tate to poll, you know, that should be incorporated in theory in the polling numbers. >> another variability we've seen here right now there have been a lot of other forecasts out there, princeton election connoisseur tum, huffington post. several others and "the new york times." yours is much more bullish donald trump and more cautious on hillary than theirs are. why? >> because we think we have a good process and, look, you have some forecasts that show clinton with a 98 or 99% chance of winning. that doesn't pass a commonsense test which is we've seen lots of elections where there's about a three-point polling error. in 2012 obama beat his polls in many states by about three points. if clinton were to beat her polls by three points and you see something we call a
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sudden trump could very easily win the electoral college. it's all based on history. people have different ways of interpreting history but if you think a three-point lead will be safe 9 % of the time you probably didn't design the model in a good way. >> 48 hours before the final votes. want to bring out donald rumsfeld. we can't know what an unknown unknown is but what the known unknowns. what are you paying attention to. >> it's true democrats have a larger base so if clinton gets her voters to turn african-americans who turned out this big numbers for president obama four and eight years ago, maybe millennial voters. if they turn out in big numbers and better signs in florida and north carolina recently, then she's in a pretty safe position. if they don't, though and if there is a big white working class vote for trump, if you see some suburban republicans convert back to trump at the last minute because he's been relatively quiet on the campaign trail, that's a case in which he could lose potentially.
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probably win, but you've seen tightening in many different states and so there's a scenario or two by which she winds up a little short of enough electoral votes. >> nate silver, you'll join us tuesday night as well and we'll be right back were our powerhouse roundtable. >> announcer: "this week with george stephanopoulos" is brought to you by bdo accountants and consultants. if you suffer from a dry mouth, then you'll know how uncomfortable it can be.
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>> i'm sorry, kate. i just hate yelling all this stuff at you like this. >> i know, right? this whole election has been so mean. >> i mean, i just feel gross all the time. >> let's get out of here. >> what. where will we go? >> you'll see. ? >> i >> i feel so much better. >> and now it's time to get out there and none of this will have mattered if you don't vote? and we can't tell you who to vote for but on tuesday, we all get a chance to choose what kind of country we want to live in. >> "saturday night live" getting earnest in the final hours. let's talk about it with matthew dowd, republican pollster kristen soltis anderson, democratic congressman keith ellison from minnesota and republican strategist alex castellanos, democratic strategist stephanie cutter,
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you heard nate silver say he thinks hillary clinton has about a two-thirds chance of winning. where do you put things right now. >> overall number or -- i think she's got about a 95% chance in this election and i think she's going to have a higher margin than barack obama did in 2012. >> higher margin than -- >> she's going to win by more than 5 million votes. by a higher percentage and interestingly, she's going to have a more diverse coalition of voters than barack obama even had when you look at the final numbers this this race. every piece of data points in that direction you take the facts into account and that's what the data. >> you say every piece of data but, alex castellanos, there are some signs of some movement in places like michigan. you heard nate silver talk about colorado tightening up a bit as well even though he believes hillary clinton will win there. it seems like the trump campaign is counting on this surge of white voters particularly in the midwest. >> in the midwest we've just seen a des moines register poll where trump has expanded his lead there. he is moving in states like
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wisconsin, tightening the gap so could there be a little trump bump here at the end? there's some data that says there is. >> keith ellison, he's going to your home state of minnesota. >> i hope he stays there for a long time but, look, at the end of the day, she's offering hope and investment and he's saying just here's who you should hate and blame for all your problems. i think voters care about, you know, what that is. people want to have a better country, not just find somebody to pin it all on when it doesn't go right so i feel like things are looking good for got a really strong feeling that after we win this election, we have to have a national dialogue on class because clearly one thing this election has shown is there's a lot of people feeling left out and we have got to do something about it. >> we've seen so many different kinds of division by class, by education, by gender, by race and kristen, i want to bring that to you an i think nate had an appropriate caution on looking at the early vote but these numbers, we've seen in
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far greater already than they came out in 2012 could point towards one of the major stories of this election. >> even if the top line numbers wind up looking similar to what they looked like four years ago i think the undercurrents in this election are telling a story about where america is headed. that we for a long time talked about democratic potential struggles with the white working class, republican struggles with latino voters, this election has sort of kicked awe of that into overdrive and we're really testing whether or not republicans' problems with thee emerging voter groups was it long term or shorter term that they needed to fix this year in order to win the white house. >> one other thing we're testing is the organization of each campaign and seen that in force, the clinton camp in the last week. >> absolutely, with the strong early vote in places like florida and nevada. and we know that a good campaign operation, a good operation can lead to a point or two difference and i think clinton, you know, we're talking about the polls tightening.
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tightening. however, she's still ahead and if you match that where more diverse than ever as a country and she has a sophisticated state-of-the-art gotv operation, i agree with math. she's got about a 95% of winning. >> my concern i think like kristen and matt have expressed is that florida, that hispanic vote is intense and you know when voters figure out that they don't like a candidate that's bad, but when voters figure out that a candidate doesn't like them and i think intensity there in the hispanic vote that suspects that donald trump is just not on their team. >> suspects? >> yeah, i'm being generous. i'm being yen rouse here, but these two candidates have really been out of that conflicted spotlight since the last debate. quite a few weeks ago and since then, the big forces underneath have reasserted themselves not just democrats and republicans coming home but an election that wants change and hillary clinton has never expressed a vision of
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>> george, to me this election has been incredibly unprecedented but incredibly predictable actually from the primary -- >> breaking down into two camps. >> election night 2012, i said the problem the republicans have they're a mad men party in a "modern family" world so they wrote an autopsy of the party and they basically said underlying factors we have to figure out a better way to appeal to minority voters and figure out a better way that appeal voters. on election night hillary clinton's margins among nonwhite voters and college educated will be the highest we've ever seen. >> question raised by peggy noonan. she said donald trump didn't break the republican party. it was already broken and he exploited it. is that true or did he break it? >> i think there's a little bit of truth to that. he exploited sort of fault line tass are existed within the party where when you had the party come out and say we need
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there were a lot of folks in the party that said, well, wait, what about me. what about the white working class. what about folks in these small towns like where martha was meeting voters earlier on in the show and lots of folks trump realized weren't being talked to by republican establishment folks who saw the long-term political challenges. they wanted to assert their voice now. >> trump or the republicans long term have a problem by working class voters because they're not offering them anything even now. >> but they're not listening to hillary clinton right now. be listening but this a longer-term project because at the end of the day you got to solve these people's problems, which is jobs, wages, affordable, infrastructure, and they're not offering them anything to solve -- >> the two pears have a problem. the two major political parties today, donald trump is likely to lose and lose badly. but that is not a huge victory for hillary clinton in the course of this race because of while she's perceived by the american public -- >> except for the fact that i think we could safely say that
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latino voters and nearly lotz single women and i don't think you could say that hillary has lost white working class families yet. i think -- if it'll be pretty evident on election night. >> i think we have not -- as a party. we have an opportunity to address their needs as the congressman is saying. >> to that -- >> look at our agenda compared to donald trump's agenda or even -- >> to that point -- separating the candidate from the party is going to be important for republicans as well. still a chance donald trump wins the wh likely event that he doesn't, to what extent do voters hold the republican party at large responsible for donald trump long term or do they say, you know what, he was sort of an unusual one-time thing and i think that's -- >> going to get 44% of the vote at least. >> 44% but he's the solution to the problem republican voters see, he is nothing more than an expression of the outrage of a lot of republican voters at the republican establishment. >> i agree. >> our party is broken and
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engine way past the red line and try to get 178% of the old white guy vote and win anything so we have got to become the party of change and the party of the future. >> if you look at the data when we hook at the top line numbers and then we hook at the races underneath that there is a high likelihood i believe hillary clinton will win ohio and it's going to be close. rob portman is going to win ohio by 0 points. i think hillary clinton will win marco rubio will win by a decent margin and see that over and over and over again. there is not a satisfaction with either political party but they're voting for hillary clinton -- >> you raise an important thing. if you're right about those senate races and i want to bring this to keith ellison even if hillary clinton wins on tuesday night, either she has a very close senate majority or maybe not a senate majority at all, probably not going to turn the house either. you've already got house republicans talking about impeachment and a series of investigations.
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i asked to john podesta, how coming out of this pain is hillary clinton if she wins going to be able to bring the country together? >> i think hillary clinton after she wins this election she go to all communities including white working class communities and a same here to build bridges and i need your help and tell those people who claim to represent you they need to support me in helping you get some jobs. >> well, and you can see that in her closing message in this election. i also think if republicans want to fix themselves, years of investigations has never worked for them. >> they ought to -- >> republicans make a huge mistake. if i were hillary clinton two days after the election day i would meet with speaker ryan and mitch mcconnell, go to capitol hill. have a meeting with them and the first signals you're going to see from the hillary clinton is not what she says, but what she does. and the staff she brings into the white house does she bring in the old palace guard that's always done the things same as usual or find new people? that will be the nall. >> most presidents get a honeymoon.
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the electorate is so polarized. if she has -- the challenge for her with all these legal troubles that she has, she's going to need antibody. she's going to need to rally her party to protect her for four years and sometimes that leads a candidate to -- >> we underunderestimate the historical nature and let's assume hillary clinton wind, the historical nature of this election. for the largest, tallest, hardest ceiling that anybody's had to overcome electing a woman, simultaneously with the anybody's ever assembled. that is going to be a huge moment. >> will good will follow from that is the question? >> well, the answer is going to the people. you got to go to the working people who didn't vote for her and tell them i'm here for you. you've got to do that. >> it's a question -- i mean, alex, i heard you say with all of her legal problem, what legal problems? the fbi that there is no justification for prosecution and they are looking at a series of e-mails that they themselves admitted have no idea what was in them. >> serious issues.
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>> takes this point of view, the country is in for a real problem. if we do reach out our hands and try to do something for this country, republicans have a chance of correcting themselves and we have a chance to actually govern. >> just about out of time got to put everybody on the spot. your predictions up on the board. i can't do it because i'm anchoring. that makes it easier but, matt dowd, you begin. >> she's going to win 50-45. she'll get very close to that 50 number which i think would be going to win 341 electoral votes which means she takes ohio. only two states that flip are iowa and north carolina. >> more than barack obama in 2012. >> exactly. >> kristen. >> i wind up going starting with that romney map and i add to trump's column ohio and i add iowa but then i take away north carolina. i think that's a state that potentially republicans could lose this time around and then there's that congressional district in maine. winds up giving me a prediction of 32 for clinton. >> i say 341.
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>> break 50. >> yeah, i'll put it there and i think that then we got a lot of healing to do which i think she's well able to do. >> three clintons. >> 286 electoral votes for donald trump wins north carolina and ohio and goes up through the rust belt. he barely hangs on in florida and i think if he does lose the rational brain says it would be because of the hispanic vote in florida. but i think he edges that out and the exit polls points -- >> i love your face. >> i love your faith. >> there is a secret trump vote. >> let stephanie get in. >> that would be great. 323 electoral votes, she takes the obama map, minus iowa and ohio but takes north carolina plus nebraska district.
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and n and now we honor our fellow americans who serve and sacrifice. in the month of october 3 service members from killed in iraq and afghanistan. that is all that is all for us today. join us election night. i'll be con choring our coverage with our whole political team. plus live coverage all day long on our abc news and facebook page. check out "world news" and i'll
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