tv U.S. Farm Report NBC November 22, 2015 5:00am-6:00am CST
would be stepping down in august, after the company rejected three takeover offers from monsanto. snow and cold weather isn't going to help feed yards with efficiency. that part of the industry still struggling under the weight of a falling cattle market. sterling marketing says feeders were experiencing an average per head loss of 518 dollars. the extreme losses already impacting feeder cattle prices in the cash market. october retail egg prices dropping 5 percent to 2-80 a dozen...that's down from the previous month's all time high of 2-96 in september. the number of laying hens now rising for the 3 straight months. the poultry industry lost 48 million birds to avian influenza in 2015...38 million of those were egg layers. a glut of global crude is helping to push fuel prices lower. diesel pces are now 32 percent lower than they were a year ago...averaging 2-48 a gallon. analysts say now may be a good time to lock in these lower prices. lower crude oil is going to improve margins for refiners and that's going to
just slightly and we do expect prices around 2 dollars per gallon regionally. as far as looking ahead to next spring we do recommend booking at least a portion to guard against any potential upside surprises in the crude oil market or any shortages on the distillate side. book a portion of that for spring ahead of time once we hit that low in december.> those are the headlines...meteorologist mike hoffman joins us now with weather, mike, we've gone from beautiful 60 degree temperatures to now blizzards and heavy snows. is this cooler pattern expected to stay through thanksgiving? actually no the midwest and east should warm up for awhile this week, the west will get colder though. so there'll be some flip flopping there once again. drought monitor continues to show just only a few pockets east of the continental divide of moderate drought the worst continues to be california nevada and still very very dry in most areas of oregon and washington even though thhere has been some improvement up that way. all right lets go day by day this week you can see as we start the
map and thats always good news. we do have a cold front moving through south florida so still some lingering showers and spotty thunderstorms down that way. weak system diving into the great lakes with a little bit of rain and snow there should not be a real big issue but that will continue to move eastward so the milder temperatures coming into the western plaines will continue to shift eastward. now this is just the beginning of the next storm system coming in. you can see by wednesday that's producing some big time snows in the western rockies. rain and snow farther east along this cold front and then some spotty showers in the plaines as the gulf moisture starts to get involved. this storm really starts to crank up by later in the week this is black friday of course. you can see rainy conditions from northern texas all the way into the great lakes, and snow on the back side of it. probably some decent accumulation in the eastern rockies in this case as very warm air surges ahead of it. very cold air comes in once again behind. our longer range forecast in our next half hour.
nd duane bosse of bolt marketing with us this week. well, when we look at this fall we've been talking about how nice weather that we've been experiencing. we've also had pretty good basis in the midwest, so, sue, considering the basis that we have what's your advice for farmers right now? >> well, i feel that we've got two different markets going out here. one of them is the eastern corn belt. the basis is going to be wonderful whenever. they need corn they're going to be pulling for it and likewise probably
i think that producers probably should be looking at moving grain and then rowning it back on the board, and i'm not seeing that because i'm a broker, i'm saying it because i think the rallies this next year are going to be futures led and not cash led. >> okay. duane, do you agree with that? i mean these areas that are seeing decent basis, is it something they should lock in? i mean, how long can it last? >> i can't agree more with sue there with that. no, i think farmers need to be moving that grain right now. like she said, not just because we're brokers, but if you look at it i think if we have a futures rally, which i think we will, we get a weather scare in south america, let's just say for example corn rallies 30 cents. i think your basis is nice and tight now. basis will maybe narrow out, so maybe a 30 in your grain market, so they should be moving that basis right now. when you look at where the gulf is at now compared to last year, their basis is actually lower. export demand isn't the best right now, but basis in your local area is
moving that grain. >> you mentioned weather in south america. i mean, sue, when we look at prices right now, not the best when you're a farmer. so are we only looking at two bullish factors in 2016? only weather in south america or weather scare here that could bump up prices? or is there something else that could lead a rally? >> well, i think first off the dollar this next year, i think, is going to peak out and give us a correction and that will help stimulate some demand. cheap prices is the cure for cheap prices. demand's going to escalate a little bit. i think that when you look at south america and u.s. weather there is going to be some issues. right now the western side of argentina is a little on the dry side. central brazil and northern brazil on the dry side. southern brazil caught too much rain, but they may be drying off a little bit. i think that as we go down the road there will be some rallies here in this grain market. it's going to be a little different than this last year. this last year was an ekg
be more trendy a little bit once it gets going, but it's going to take a little time. we're still in this flat, sideways range on the markets, but i think that we're, you know, looking at history. we're not that far off from looking at some lows in corn. i think that when we look at of this, and i think the weather's going to be the other key because corn planting around the world is going to take a backseat to other commodities, and i think all you need is a nudge for this market to go higher, and once that starts on continuation charts like on july corn, you're in you're out. dec corn, you're in you're out. there's these huge gaps on the weekly charts that have not been filled, and they're humungous. they start from all the way around 548 and go to 684. 632 on the dec to 709. those are big gaps, and when the market gets that nudge those will act like magnets. >> so heading into
2016, duane, what commodity are you the most bullish on? what do you think as the most potential? >> i would definitely say corn because of a lot of the reasons sue mentioned. corn acres will be up in the u.s., but i think they have to be up actually. we just raised a huge crop, and our ending stock is actually about the same as where we were last year at this time. so i think we have to gain acres next year, and if you look at the rest of the world situation, ukraine will be down on acres. they have some weather issues. south america, they're planting soybeans right now, but if the soybean planting gets delayed much more that means less second crop corn. less second crop down there means less corn in the world and we could have a higher price. corn is definitely the one i'm excited about planting on our farm next year. >> okay, and, sue, you actually have an interesting statistic when it comes to years ending in six. why don't you tell us about that. >> well, in going back i have data that goes all the way back to 1908 on corn, and in years that end in a six every one of them have a rally in a
was is that the year ending in the five moving into the year of the si what it should be doing. in fact, corn fits the pattern very well, even as opposed to soybeans, and corn tends to be trending lower through november and into december. eight out of the ten years it did that. there was one year that we moved lower into january of the year ending in a six, and another year we moved into april for a final low, but the further later that you did that the longer that rally lasted. it was not uncommon, june was never a high month in those years. it was july, august or september, and then there were two years that is we did rally the whole last half of the year. so that would be a weather think. so i think there's hope out here, and once we get it going, whatever that reason is, and i believe there will be that
thing that when you look at corn and we took all the years from 1968 and we took the major highs to the ultimate lows, which sometimes took more than a year or two to do that, the lowest percentage of that low of the high was 36.5% or something like that in 2008, and last year's 318 and a quarter low was 37.2%. so i think that was our low. this is an inside range year. we'll see if we close it higher. >> okay. a little bit of a bullish talk, a little bit of a change on this show this weekend. thanks so much. when we come back we want to get into cattle markets so don't go anywhere. join us this year as we talk to growers about this year's growing season and the decisions they're making on their journey to harvest, sponsored by dupont pioneer. [ break ] welcome back to u.s. farm report. well, duane, when we look at these cattle prices
they've been tough to watch recently, but between now and the end of the year do you think we could see a storm term bounce? >> oh, i think you can, and typically you do. seasonally you have a rally this time of year, usually led because of holiday purchasing by retailers and that, and you should see i saw this afternoon actually packer interest was better than i thought this week. cascattle prices look like they're going to be 195 in nebraska, which is on the low end of last week's trade, but better than some expected too. the demand has been high. they've been calling a lot of guys that i've heard don't even have cattle and asking them if they have any cattle. when will they be ready? so that^s good. no, we could have a rally in the short term. >> but in 2016 what do you think prices realistically? >> well see, that's a different story. longer term in cattle if you look at all the bullish commodities from say '08 on when we had this
haven't gone back to where they were before, and i'm worried we lost a lot of retail share when mcdonald's went to, for example, serving breakfast all day. they didn't do that to serve more hamburger. they're serving less meat. we lost our retail sharer in 2014 when prices went high. i'm afraid fat cattle will have to trend lower in 2016, unless the u.s. dollar can drop sharply and we can get exports going again. until that happens i'm going to be bearish on the cattle market. >> 120, 115, 110, i mean, can you give us an idea? >> yeah, look for june1stto get down to probably 115. that contract will, i'm pretty confident. i'm not sure if the rest will or not. >> 115, it's tough to hear, but, sue, if we do get down to that level let's look at the positives. will it help demand? >> well, i think it will. the one thing, i think too in the cattle market that we need to keep an eye on, it's kind of like a doubledged sword. one is, is the weather that if we do turn hot and dry next summer for the whole midwest, that could be a little
detrimental to the cow but on the same token if we end the el nino and we start think you watch australia. if they start catching consistent rains timely, they^re in the same boat we were a couple years ago. they're going to start holding back cows and heifers and breeding, and that should slow up the amount availability of cow hamburger, whatever. so i think that will be a good thing. one thing we're dealing with right now is, is that both new zealand and australia have met their export quotas, and so the dollar really has to be super strong to entice them to pay that 21% and 26% tax or they're not going to send as much to us. as far as cattle coming into the u.s. feeder cattle, canada's down-- for october was down 72% while mexico was up 8%. so all of a sudden you're taking a big drop there. that should show placements dropping off a little
weather's going to turn colder. >> okay. along with these lower cattle prices we've also seen the lower hog prices. duane, have we gone too far to the lower end, do you think? >> yeah, i think we have. i think honestly nearby hogs on the futures contract could have stopped at 60. i think that would have been just fine for demand, but with the cattle market being as volatiles a it has been lately-- down limit, up limit daily-- i think we push down into those mi50s. but i think the cash market's bottoming out here in the hog market, and, again, too because of seasonal buying. i think hogs can rally from here, but we are looking at probably a production record this week. slaughter will probably be a production record. like i said going to be altime highs there. so we've got a lot of meat to move, but the cash market stays steady this week. yeah, i think we're at the bottom here. >> all right, that's our talk on livestock, but we want to get your closing thoughts on all the marks so, we're going to do that when we come back on u.s. farm report. u.s. farm report brought to you by case ih, be ready next harvest season with a axiaflow
he one thing that i look at besides corn is the hog market. i think china's going to be a big buyer. they were our second largest importer this past week on pork and japan number one, but china has dropped the ban on imports of pork from the u.s. from, i think, 16 plants now. they wouldn't be doing that if they weren't intending on opening up their doors a little bit for more pork. i think that pork is cheap, so i look at the hog market as one area where we're going to see the market have a chance to move higher. >> all right. duane? >> i think the biggest thing is these markets have just gotten too negative lately, especially on the grain side of things. it's all we've talked about is the negative side of things. manage money is now short this market, and we're looking at south american weather. right now i feel like we are just pegging that crop. it's perfect. it's already in the bin, and they're just still
planting it. so i guess my point i'd like to drive home is the fact that if we get a rally in the market or something it could be actually quite violent because managed money is short and they could go long. >> good thought. all right. john phipps jos us when we come back. receive a free trial of the daily marketetter and gainknowledge about rrent market conditions from theprofesonals at ber tding. view the marke like never befo. go tbowertding.com.
inlving 12 ci on the top of most commodity groups' agenda. and today, john phipps breaks down the economics of the t-p-p. the lobbying for final approval of the trans-pacific partnership or tpp is reaching a crescendo. recently several ag groups come out strongly in favor. i remain, however, a tepid supporter. big trade pacts are always oversold - both the benefits and the costs. the tpp, like nafta before, probably won't move the
reason is the timelines for trade barrier removal are really long - almost generational. still, they are worthy goals. what was curious to me was the remarkable tunnel vision of commodity groups. it's like they did a search of the massive document and then only read the paragraphs that contain corn, or beef, or whatever. to be fair, i didn't wade through the whole thing either. but farmers should at least check to see what other important provisions are in the package. many of these don't have anything to do with agriculture, but aot to do with being part of our economy. for example, the section of intellectual property likely means low cost generic drugs will be slower arriving to help contain healthcare costs. if you don't understand why this is a big deal for us you need to have breakfast with some older farmers sometime and bring up prescription prices. long after a small bump in beef sales has
arriving. the biggest reason i hope it passes may be the hardest to measure. increased trade is a proven deterrent to global belligerance. commercial ties decrease the odds o conflict while they make the cultures involved more at ease with each other. i can put up with a lot of economic friction in order to advance international cooperation. thanks, john. still to come, some farmers will do everything it takes to avoid paying taxes. but one c-p-a says not paying enough could be a farmers' biggest accounting mistake. that's our farm journal report after the break. the chevy silverado is the official news gathering vehicle for farm
from the studios of farm journal broadcast, this is u.s. farm report. welcome back to u-s farm report. we have much more ahead this weekend.... advance your accounting. we'll tell you how farmers may soon be able to see profitability not only by field, but by soil type. in leave a legacy, a delaware poultry operation that's not forcing the next generation to come back, instead laying the foundation for a passion to grow. and in john's world, he's back with part 2 of a dollar's worth. now for the headlines, .salmon is now the first genetically engineered animal
this week from the fda. the atlantic salmon reaches market size more quickly than non-ge farm raised salmon. fda says they've analyzed the data and say the fish is safe to eat. many argue raising the fish at all--brings risks of it being released into the wild. fda disagrees adding that the fish are sterile and can't reproduce. it's stipulating the fish can only be raised in land-based, contained hatchery tanks at two specific facilities-- one in canada and the other panama. and the decision does not allow the fish to be bred or raised in the u.s. the agency will accept public comment for 60 days starting november 23rd. a new report claims unnecessary use of antiobiotics in animals is becoming a health concern for kids. the american academy of pediatcs, or a-a-p, claims antimicrobial drug resistance is a growing health crisis. and the common farming practice of using antiobiotics in animals is one cause. a-a-p says when producers use antibiotics as a growt
drug ineffective when treating infections in people, espcially young patients. in response, the national pork board said the industry is already phasing out the use of antiobiotics for growth promotion, and that while they understand people are already confused about the role ofntiobitoics in meat production, this report only adds to that confusion. taco bell joined the list of fast-food companies moving to cage-free eggs this week. but their timeline is more aggressive than most. the chain promises to make the switch by the end of 2016. most other companies are giving a 5-year to 10-year timeline for the transition. tacobell has more than 6 thousand restraunts and sells close to 150 million eggs each year. this was the scene along i-70 as heavy snows and strong winds stranded vehicles anshut down highways in eastern colorado this week. the national weather service said wind gusts of up to 60 mph created blizzard like
conditions...in colorado, kansas and parts of nebraska. the fall storm a concern for some livestock owers after mild temperatures the last few weeks. meteorologist mike hfman joins temperatures the last few weeks. meteorologist mike hoffman joins us now with a look at our long-range forecast. mike that blizzard earlier in the week, i'm guessing is just the beginning of winter weathe oh yeah, it's that time of year but the next big system probably coming in out west this week. here's the jet stream as we head through this week, you can see we started off very cold in the east. that troph though kind of moves away. so we start to warm up a little bit as we head
toward thanksgiving, big troph big system out west, and then that cold air starts to come east by next weekend once again. so, things are at least moving from west to east in most situations. let's check the 30 day outlook as far as temperatures, we're going below normal from georgia, alabama all the way up to southern south dakota, down to texas and back to central and southern california above normal for the far northern and eastern great lakes and much of the northeast. 30 day outlook for precip, expected to be above normal for much of the southern trow thirds of the country, especially the midantatic down into the southeast back into thcentral and southern plains. some below normal areas probably up along the canadian border, especially the northwest and far northern rockies. so far during our business drivers series, we've explored forward contracting,
do a very good job. there's the accoutning side software, the management side sortware, as of yet, they're not quite totally talking together yet, but i would focus in on if you're really focused in on the mangement side, start with that. if you're focused mroe on the fiancial side start with that."> neiffer says as farmers move to more real-time profitibaility records with cloud based software, soon they can hone in on doing accounting not only by field, but by soil type. < that's really an important concept is this type of soil actually produces better than that type of soil. and with the technology available today, farmers are going to be able to dig all the way down to the soil level and know how much they make based on each of their soil types."> technology on the horizon that neiffer says could be here sooner than you think.
as promised last week, john is back with part two of what the u-s dollar is really worth. last week we looked at how we measure the value of the dollar and some of the problems with those metrics. this week let's look at why this matters to farmers.the relative value of the dollar impacts farmers whenever we buy or sell stuff with other countries. here is how it works.say your customer
typical currency chart showing how many chinese yuan (cny) it takes to buy one dollar (usd). if the exchange rate is 6.05 as in 2014 you could get 165 dollars. but right now you can only get 157 dollars. the yuan is weakening, or from our perspective the dollar is strengthening. by the way i think charts like this which track our currency versus another are often more useful than the basket-type indexes . commodity producers should follow the exchange rates of customers and competitors.but what makes the charts move? here are some factors that determine the relative value of currencies. the biggest factor is simple supply and demand: do people want to hold their wealth in one currency or another? the dollar continues to be considered the safest haven so
value of dollars. if u-s interest rates are higher than other developed countries, that too will strengthen the dollar. despite the rhetoric, central banks have less power to fix exchange rates than they used to, as money flows and black markets will simply do an end-around if traders think the values are out of whack.all of us are affected by the strength of our currency. a strong dollar is good for american tourists going abroad or seniors wintering in mexico. things like computers, cars, oil and copper are cheaper to buy, which holds inflation down. but a strong currency probably diminishes our economic growth slightly. it also encourages outsourcing,
exporters.almost all sectors of agriculture depend on exports for a big part of their markets. here are our top 10 export-dependent commodities. note four products export more than 50% of production. so despite the positive aspects of a strong dollar, i would say on balance it burdens u-s ag.the bottom line, however, is as much as we complain about conditions here, the rest of the world sees the u-s as a stronger and safer economy in which to invest. so the dollar remains valuable. what needs to happen is more growth and stability around the world, so other currencies can compete with the dollar. thanks, john. and remember to email your questions or comments to john, or send us a note on facebook or twitter. when we come back, an
pi science with service, delivering success."> it's not often a business change direction--moving from one product to something completely different. but in this week's leave a legacy report, clinton griffiths introduces us to a delaware family that changed its business model in order to keep the next generation on the farm. grain side--thompson farms.... poultry --locust-lane-hartley leaving a legacy...the passing of an older generation...on to a new one... that practice is alive and well at the thompson family farm in hartley delaware.
we're trying to work toward's being successful to have a legacy to pass on to the kids.// today that operation includes, tractor and restoration work, raising poultry for perdue farms, growing replacement dairy heifers, and keeping up with farm ground that grows soybeans, corn and soft red winter wheat. robert thompson took this farm over from his parents...but it was his grandparents that started the operation in 1911. he was like many farmers in the area at the time most of them had small orchards and some strawberries and grew a lot of tomatoes and wheat. in the late 30's--as his father stepped up in the business-- the family started a dairy. he milked cows his lifetime and i milked cows...barbara and i got married in 1969 and milked cows until 2003 here. 24:49 the operation
thousand-laying hens, tomatoes and wheat. it's a tradition, that continues. and as robert turned the corner on a new century, he could see changes were needed. the dairy needed a lot of expanding and updating. it required a lot of money that none of us wanted to do that... it was at that time that two of his son's arron and jonathan -- expressed interest in teaming up. even when we were in elementary school we started helping him before we went to school and after. so we were big part of the daily operations then in 2002 is when we started our partnership and we started working to where working together instead of me just working for dad as a son or employee, i was a partner at that time. that's when the team began to transition from dairy to poultry, first flock went in january 2006 and we started poultry as a way to increase income for all of the families so far...that plan is working.
and even through the day to day....the family has their eye on the future. we want it to continue to move forward. whether that's through my nephew my daughters or my neice or son in laws what ever that is. we want to see that continue to move and feel the like things that you built will be there to help them move forward in life. we haven't set any goals that we want to be large farmers or a certain amount of acres to till. we're trying to remain to be profitable here and be able to sustain agriculture here for this farm. a future that won't happen without that same passion from the next generation. i'm starting to take my daughter in on sunday's in the chicken houses when they're small so she'll start in and i think she'll have interest in seeing everything move forward. we're not forcing anything on anyone but if the possibility is there
welcome back to tractor tales. we're off to central montana this week for a classic cross-motor case 1220. built in 1923 and purchased for only 650 dollars, this tractor came well this is a 1923 1220 cross motor case. its the smallest cross motor that they built. i actually found this down in vancouver washington. yeah, i found it in a newsletter. from another club and the fella that had it i called him and talked to him about it and i figured it would be long gone. i asked him what he wanted for it and he said 65. and so i said is that 65 dollars 6,500 dollars, 65 thousand, what is it. he said
it, especially the manifold, if he knew if the manifold was there and he said he thought it was but so i said ok ill send you a down payment. i went down and actually picked it up. on december the 20th and it is a 1220, so i was destined to have this tractor. but it was in really really rough shape when we got it. the radiator had been shot gunned. there were bullet holes through the fuel tanks. the fuel tanks were shot, but we spent a lot of time on it, rebuilding it. we got it in 97, by 2000 we had completed it and my passion is the early tractors. doesn't matter what it is if it appeals to me if it's an early enough tractor im interested in it.this week, we would like to pay tribute to the asstad lutheran church of fergus falls, minnesota. the congregation is celebrating 125 years this year. our thanks to cindy fronning for sending that
eg where gr bne was a blessed harvest this year. he tells us john may have found the last row in his corn field, but he found the last three rows of onions, harvesting the crop with one of his sons. he said even though they've experied very dry weather in the western half of oregon, the quality of the onions is very good this year. teh dryness just stuned the size of the onions. but greg isn't complaining, becuase look at this view-- that's mount hood with a brilliant sunset in the backdrop of his fields. our friends in northern georgia tell us they've received way too much rain. clint sent us this picture. the moisture was just
rotting. and do you remember this picture from back in july? mitchell larson told us he expected the field to break last year's record crop. well, fast forward a few months, and here's the crop just before harvest. mitchell says, as expected, it was a record year for corn, with the poorest field averaging 194 bushels per acre and the best at 252. for all of us at u-s farm report, i'm tyne morgan. thank you for watching u-s farm report, i'm tyne morgan. thank you for watching u-s farm report. be sure to join us right here again next week, as we work to build on our tradition. have a great weekend, everyone.
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