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tv   Wall Street Journal Rpt.  ABC  October 23, 2011 7:00am-7:30am EDT

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hi, everybody. welcome to t"the wall street journal report". i'm maria bartiromo. can europe save itself? the latest rescue plan reveal thisad weekend. will investors take a haircut? what it means to our economy and your portfolio. could there be me pleasant surprises in store for the u.s. economy? one of america's top bankers says there are signs of life that they're watching. and my conversation with golf great annika sorenstam. how she's teaching winning ways to a new generation of f female athletes. "the wall street journal report" begins right now. >> this is america's number one financial news program, "the wall street journal report." now, maria bartiromo.
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>> acrucial european summit this weekend, the goal? to c chart a comprehensive cour out of the sovereign debt crisis, stabilize the banks and calm international markets. the summit led by german chancellor angela merkel and french president nicolasarkozy taking place on sunday in belgium. the markets had a choppy week moving in concert with worries about europe, down 250 points on monday, up 180 points on tuesday, then bouncing around later on in the week. the markets rebounded on friday. we're in the thick of earnings season and so far, a mixed picture to report, though not as bad as some had feared. goldman sachs fell short of expectations, while bank of america, citi and morgan stanley all beat analyst predictions. a stunning development in technology, apple missed expectatioions for the first ti in years. ibm disappointed as well. intel and yahoo! beat. microsoft met forecasts.
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among other dow cocomponents, general electric and at&t met expectations while j & j, coca-cola, american express, mcdonald's and verizonll beat expectations on wall street. the cash-strapped post office is giving its stamp of approval for a rate increas beginning in january. it will cost a penny more to send a letter. a first class stamp now going up to 45 cents. what could come out of the european summit and w what doest mean for the u.s. economy and e markets? joining me now, david wesz el, economics editor at "the wall street journal". thank you for coming on the program. >> thank you. >>european leaders scheduled to meet this weekend to come up with another plan to recapitalize the banks, bail out greece i feel like we've seen this before. what do you think? are you expecting anything big in terms of news flow? >> i donon't think so. when the europeans said they were going to have to meet again on wednesday, that s a sign that even they don't think k th can get it done this weekend. i don't know how they get any sleep there.
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they seem toave summits every third day. the markets since the beginning of october have been up. the stock markets have been up even though we haven't seen much action on europe. even t though we haven't seen mh action on the u.s. fiscal deficit stuff that was supposedly worrying the markets. >> so what's your take o on how this playsout? it seems like anything coming out of the euro zone really drives the economic affairs here in the u.s. and certrtainlythe markets. >> right, i think that's rigigh. i think the optimistic view is the europeans have finally gotten with the program and they are talking, as you ggested, about thehe very important issu they have to resolve. how are they going to recapitalize the banks? how are they going to handle what is the inevitable greek default? and what are they going to do to prevent the aftermath of a greek default from washing up in the bond markets of spain and italy. those are the right things to worry about. and theye now dealing with them. they're moving in the right direction. the less optimistic thing is
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they may not be moviving fast enough to stay aad of the markets. and so we've seen one bank go under in belgium. the chances that somethingcould go wrong before they get their act together are uncomfortably high. >> what about here in the u.s.? a lot of talk maybe in the last couple of weeks we saw positive news in terms of sentiment, retail, gdp. do you think we're going to dip into another recession or just bounce along the bottom from here or what? what's your expectation as far as the u.s. economy? >> i think thatou hear a giant si of relief. but that sigh of relief is that the data does not susuggest tha we have already fallen into another recession. and that's good news. but the fact that everybody's feeling better because we're bumping along the bottom at 9.1% unemployment, 14 million people out of work, that's more people out of work in the u.s. than there are people in the whole country of greece. that is just a sign that we are in for a very long slog.
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i see nothing to lead me to be optimistic about reaching full employment any time in the next couple of years. so we have a long way to go so the only relief is we're not sinking. but i think bumping along the bottom is a pretty good way to put it. >> yeah, you're right. it certainly feels ugly out there. of course, a lot of people looking to the presidential campaign and the upcoming election in 2012 to be some kind of a catalyst. you've got hopeful herman cain's 9-9-9 economic plan. and it seems to be gaining traction. you've got all this popularity now around herman cain. rick perry coming out with a flat tax proposal. are either of these plans realistic? what's your take on these two economic plans? >> i think the tax plans are very interesting and suggest two things. one is there is this demand from the public which surfaces from time to time for "please give us a simpler tax code." people don't always like it when they discover that simpler means they lose some of their deductions and credits. but if the politicians can convince them the economy would be better off with lower rates,
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fewer tax credits and fewer r t deductions, that could change the picture. the second thing is both the perry flat tax andnd herman cais 9-9-9 plan are tax plans that would move us away from taxing income towards taxing consumption. that's something that economists have said is inevitably going to happen in the united states. i don't think it's going to happen quickly. tax reform doesn't happen quickly. but the fact that these ideas keep popping up again tells you they have some longevity. >> i'm just wondering why we haven't had tax reform yet. how long havee been talking about the fact thatt lowering corporate taxes but eliminating the loopholes would actually be a positive? >> right. well, this year is the 25th anniversary of the tax reform act of 1986, which did a lot of the things that you just suggested. and it turns out that everybody is in favor of tax reform in principle. but as soon as you get down to the specifics, everybody's trying to protect their interests. that's why when you lk at the corporate community, they're all in favor of lower rates.
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but when you ask the business roundtable or any of the other business organizations, what deductions and credits do you think we should get rid of in order to get to lower rates, they allreeze up because their membership gets divided on that. at's the problem. >> certainly is. so we'reone year away from election day. do you think president obama can turn around this economic story? some people say that a president cannot get -- has a president ever been reelected with an unemployment rate above 8%? i think the answer is no. >> ting answer may be yes but it was franklin roosevelt during the depression. >> one. >> that's exactly the question. the president has the wind blowing against him. no matter whether you think he did the right thing for the economy or not, it isn't very good and people aren't feeling very good about it. and that's not good for an incumbent. an incumbent president or an incumbent member of congress. a lot will depend on ether the republicans can position
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themselves as having a credible alternative. i think a lot of people will b ready to vote for change just because they don't like the current economy. but whether mitt romney or rick perry or herman cain, whoever the nominee is, can capitalize on that, it's a long way off. >> let's talk about occupy wall street. this movement is now on for a month. do you think this translates into any policy changes soon? >> that's a good question. i've been thinking a lot about ththat. itit's certainly gotten a lot o attention. in political, ifif you've got a lot of public attention, you can sometimes have an impact on policy. i think it's provided a left wing alternative to the tea party. but whether it's actually affecting policy yet, i don't think so. the question is whether it has staying power and whether some politicians will capitalize on this. we see the labor unions beginning to move in. maybe some democrats will decide, we have nothing to lose. maybe one day president obama will show up on occupy wall
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street and we'll see if that makes adifference. >> david, thank you for joining us. >> you're welcome. up next, some encouraging signs about the u.s. economy from someone who knows. my conversation with a top banker about hidden economic flowers ready to bloom. later on, golf great annika sorenstam off the green and on the business of getting more kids involved with sports. take a look at how the stock market ended the week. back in a moment. ♪ [ male announcer ] how could a luminous protein in jellyfish, impact life expectancy in the u.s., real estate in hong kong, and the optics industry in germany? at t. rowe price, we understand the connections of a complex, global economy. it's just one reason over 75% of our mutual funds beat their 10-year lipper average. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. request a prospectus or summary pspectus with investment information, risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing.
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in spite of the barrage of bad news from europe that buffets us from day to day, there may be some signs of economic recovery in the u.s. on the horizon. that's what jes staley, the ceo of jpmorgan investment bank told me this week. we talked about the consumer, the economomy and the business investment bananking. >> first two arters of revenue fell down to a billion dollars. our corporate clients put the brakes on. whether it was the m&a market, the ipo market, the debt markets got a lot quieter. so fees just came down. what you do when that happens is stay focused on your clients and know that it's going to come back. >> you have publicly released the kind of exposure that you ve to euro. but that's on a net basis.
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what happens if we see a default greece or somewhere and we see dominos start to fall. the impact on a gross basis. are you prepared for the worst in terms of europe and a real fall there? >> we're very comfortable with our net exposures across europe. we publish the fact that to spain, italy, greece, ireland and portugal, itit's $15 billio net, 62% of that is to large corporations in that part of europe. so we're comfortable with where we are in terms of our exposures. i think the worry about europe is if the euro zone does really get in trouble and they trip themselves into another recessssion, the possibility th that recession could extend itself to the united state-- if we have a recession in the united states, that's when you start worrying about credit issues and whatnot. but our exposure strictly to europe we think is very manageable. we want to stay engaged. europe is a very important market for us. we're comfortable with our exposures. i think it would be more a global economic scenario that
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we'd get concerned about, not just europe. >> let move on to the consumer right now. lending has been out there. a lot of people wondering how much the sector is lending. of course, i know that its significance here at jpmorgan. what are you seeing in terms of the consumer right now, the credit wou creditworthiness? >> we're worried about europe, the housing market in the united states. if there was a surprise to the upside, i think it will be from the u.s. economy in the latter part of this year for three reasons. large corporates are doing extremely well. they have a lot of cash on the balance sheets. they've had a good earnings season thus far through 2011. and small businesses, secondly, we're seeing small businesses beginning to borrow in a fairly sisignificant way for the first time in years. our loans to small businesses year to date are up 70% versus last year. and that's not because last year we weren't making loans. that's because we didn't have the demand. this year, we have the demand. that's a very positive sign from the small business sector. and then the u.s. consumer.
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one data point that we track is the u.s. consumer's debt service to disposable income. how much do they have to pay out to service their mortgage debt, their credit card debt versus their disposable income? we're at the lowest level we've seen since 1994. that's a 17-year low, which means the u.s. consumer is getting their own financl condition in much, much better shape. so when there's a sense of confidence coming back, i think the consumer is poised to start spending again. >> there's's a real pent-up demd is what i'm hearing you saying. >> the u.s. consumer's balance sheet is in much, much better shape. so when they have the confidence to start to spend, they have the economic wherewithal to do so. >> no doubt about it. consumer and the corporate, by the way. taking away europe, taking away housing, you've got a pretty good situation -- >> a lot of propellant to get the economy going once that confidence factor comes back. >> hedge fund managegers, have u ever seen them as unlevered as you are seeing them today? what are you seeing in terms of clients today? >> this is about as unlevered as
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we have seen that community. to a certain extent, it's a very tricky market to be an investor in because not only is there no real identifiable trend yet, we have on the positive side, the propellant of the u.s. economy which could really start to move foard. and on the other side, whave fundamentally structural challengesn europe that could really kick off another credit crisis. >> i have to ask you about the regulatory environment. you have to wonder if the regulators understand what they're doing to shareholder value and the investor class when they stop you from buying back more stock, when they get in the way of dividend announcements. how shackled do you feel in terms of the regulatory environment? >> that's a tough quesestion. you know, a lot had to change in the financial markets. we needed -- and we need a financial system which is much safer, much sounder, obviously, than what we had going into 2008. a lot of what has been done as a
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regulatory matter we applaud, we support and we think is important for the economy down the road. but there are a lot of things that are being done to us that do require an incredible amount of change in how we manage our business, in how we track r business, in how we organize our business. there are some unintended consequences, i think, of what's come out of regulatory reform which is holding back growth. so everyone's trying to get it right. and i think the people in washington and the people in new york are trying to work in the same direction. what we want is a robust economy creating jobs and a financial system which is supporting that economic growth. >> my thanks to jes staley. up next on "the wall street journal report," we'll meet the 12-year-old try athlete running for herself and for a cure for prostate cancer. golf champ annika sorenstam on how sports builds communities and builds up y
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golf great annika sorenstam rered from competing in the game that gave her ten major titles. but she hasn't put her clubs away yet. her foundation is taking a swing at mentoring a new generation of female athletes.s. >> it's a great way to give back to the game. a lot of these girls, they're going through things i went rough probably 16 years ago. i know what it's like. it's a big step to be a professional. so many things you have to work on, not necessarily your swing or your short game. it's working with sponsors. it's travel schedules and working with caddies, it's all the things outside the golf course, that's just a little part of what the annika foundation is all about. it's a lot of fun for me. i see the next generation coming up and continue to grow the game of golf. >> the u.s. federal law that demand gender equity in sports about to be four years old. what can our schools and communities doo to better serve
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studts? >> title 9 has been great for women sports but we have a long way to go. that's the reason i'm in new york is because we're attending the women's sports foundation funded by billie jean king. she sponsored this. women have to be so strong to want to stay in a sport. there are so many other things they want to do when their 16, 17. hopefully we can keep these girls into sports and the numbers wiwill be different. >> you've presented the annika inspiration award with that foundadation. tell me about this year's recipient, winter vinenecki is r name. she's 12 years old. >> she is 12 years old. this is a girl, she's just amazing. >> i got all of my triathlon gear and all my training clothes. >> she has a fighting spirit.
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her family went through something tragic. her father died of prostate cancer and she wanted to take her r sport and make a differen. >> 1 in 6 men get prostate cancer. nobody knows about prostate cancer. i'm racing for my dad and all the men out there. so it keeps my dad's spirit alive. i know he's with me when i'm out there doing anything in life. >> this 12-year-old has raised over $300,000. to me, that's amazing. that's what the annika inspiration award is all about, recognizing an athlete that's not just amazing in their field, in their sport, but can really do something to impact others anmake the community better. >> do you think that athletics changes a person's future? what kind of future would you expect for winter, given her very athletic life? >> well, i come from a very athletic family. and i know the importance of sports, not just to build character but to be active, to be healthy.
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that's one of the reasons that i push for sports in the school programs. you want kids to be active. you look at obesitity rates tod in america and you see over 25 million kids are obese. they're not active. ani think that we can start early,ntroduce it to schools. then they have a more chance that they will be active after school and continue later in their lives and they will carry that forward to their children. i'm an advocate for that. that's what the annika foundation is all about. there are some great organizations out there trying to do the same thing. it's more preventive medicine than anything. > what else is in your futur? i know you've put in your bid to design the golf course in brazil for the upcoming 2016 olympics. >> that's true. i've thrown in my name together with jack nicolaus to get a chance to design the golf course there. i went to geneva and was right in front of ioc and presented our case. i would love the opportunity to what i call share my passion and
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inspire golfers down there. it's a great way to growhe game of golf. it's all -- it's part of what i want my foundation do. i have my fingers crossed. we'll see what happens. >> my thanks to annika sorenstam. coming up next on "the wall street journal report," we'll take a look at the news this upcoming week that will have an impact on your money. warren buffett and high-profile friends turn their attention to kids' finances.
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check out the website, hope you follow me on twitter, fi me @mariabartoromo. third-quartereports from dow components, boeing, chevevr, caterpillar, merck, exxonmobil, procter & gamble, dupont and 3m. tuesday, the laters reading on consumer confidence will be e o. on wednenesday, we find how man new homes were sold last month. the gdp is the broadest measure of the u.s. economy and that numberer typically is a market mover. finally, one of the world's richest men showing off two dimensions. >> you certainly do have a problem. >> everything we've tried -- >> warrenn buffett stars in the children's cartoon "the secret millionaire's club" previously
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seen online only. it makes its television debut on thhub cable network this week. also mentoringng a group of you investors is jay-z. >> as a team,pu your interest in business to good use. that's what i've done, being a good businessman has allowed me to help others. >> building better business, one child at a time. that will do it for us for today. thanks for joining me. next week, a looat whe t next generation of high-tech, high-paying jobs may come from. have a great week, everybody. see you again next weekend.
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