Author(s) subject terms: Car-following, reaction time, headway, accident, deceleration, risk, ruin, first passage, martingale
Includes bibliographical references (p. 13)
Technical report; 1971
The paper deals with a car-following model relating driver reaction time, temporal headway and deceleration response to accident frequency. The central goal is to assess the sensitivity of 'collision' probability to a shift in expected reaction time. This problem eventually reduces to determining the sensitivity of the probability of 'ruin' to changes in the drift of the process of cumulative reaction times. 'Diffusion-type' approximations are used and it is found that additive changes in mean reaction time correspond to multiplicative changes in 'collision' probability. Numerical examples are given to illustrate this effect. (Author)
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