bob: the fed does not want to change the fed funds rate. the 10-year will be in tagging distance of 150 to 175. in a risk-on environment, 175 to 190. in a risk off, maybe down to 150, 140. that is it for the first half of the year. priya: i completely agree with bob. the upside is a little more capped than the downside. can the 10-year get below 150? possibly. if the fed is starting to cut rates they can go a lot more. the upside, the fed told us we have your back if financial conditions tighten if the u.s. economy slows down. if it's ok, we will let it run. jonathan: the signal from the bond market, we believe you, you will keep rates low. you, generateve inflation. is that the signal you see? matt: the 10-year breakeven inflation rates cannot get out of bed. it's had good reason to try. we will have decent base effects pushing up the rate on your on your inflation into the first quarter of the year. the bond market does not seem to care. the one thing that stood out to me was the monetary policy report from the fed. they acknowledged the

louis fed president where he joined other fed officials. it appeared to lean against any near term rate cut bullard saying they could cut rates if a global pandemic develops, but that's not the baseline case. that followed comments from charles evans who said fed action would be quote premature until we have more data proceeded by fed vice chair claire da on monday who announced it's too soon to speculate whether coronavirus will lead to a change in the outlook. while that's going on, you heard what i said about b of a futures markets continue aggressively price in rate cuts. take a look at these numbers here now 100% probabliy probability of t in march up from yesterday. >> it wasn't there the day before >> but not only that, there's a 49% probability of a 50 basis point cut at the march meeting i want to come back tho that in a second because i want to show you the rest of the tenor out there which shows if you don't get two cuts in march, you would get a 69% probability in april third cut for june 55% chance of a november 4th cut or a fu

up and former fed insider danielle. so danielle this is the really the big question of the day right now beyond the balance sheet everything else expects and is expected to be quite unremarkable so how and when will the fed taper treasury bill purchases because if they suddenly the liquidity just isn't there anymore that really would split the market and bring us right back to square one. you know it really does and the fed has backed itself into a corner with the moves that it's made i hear that the willingness and i hear the desire on the part of policymakers to rein this in but i don't think that the market's going to allow it just because every single day it pushes the fed further out on the spectrum and the fed is saying april the minutes reiterated april we will have to see you know if we get through tax season and the fed is truly able to unplugged this because to me it's a monster of their own making. we want to move to the outlook for inflation and employment here right now inflation is steady on the low side w

you know the fed since that 1987 crash before the 1987 the fed didn't intervene like it does they got together that day in 1907 when it crashed 20 percent who is it reagan rubin and greenspan they got together and formed the working group on family anshul markets that they got the treasury to intervene at that point because the fed can't buy stocks but the treasury can and the treasury to this day has a trading desk lord knows what they're buying but the fed can intervene with just cash new cast to lend to the banks and now apparently hedge funds that they're going to start lending to they basically isolated patients arrow and patient 0 is still alive in 1987 being fed and pumped in pump components with all this free money right the want to group on finance later known as the plunge protection team was a response to alan greenspan's reinterpretation of the role the fed not to try to take the punch bowl away when the party got frothy but they keep feeding the punch bowl ad infinitum and forget crashes and that was carried through through bernanke carries through yellen and now donald t

do you have suggestions on how we were the fed can address homeownership -- how we or the fed can address homeownership? chair powell: i agree that there are pressures on affordability which are very widespread that are to do with difficulty in getting land zoned and difficulty in acquiring workers, and just regulatory costs, material costs that are putting pressure on house prices. upward pressure. it is quite widespread around the country. in terms of the level of , we don't want to be back in a situation where we push the idea of homeownership passed what is financially sustainable for people, and we did that in the precrisis era. what has happened is credit is much less available now for people without spotless credit records. that is a lot of what is behind some of the data you cited. i think it is a good question. did we move too far? i don't have a view that we did, but it is a good question to be asking, to be making sure that people who should have access to credit and can handle borrowing of that size get it. sen. jones: i know that senator cortez masto asked, but i would like t

one white house fed nominee facing even more doubts. we begin with the big issue, low yields in the drivers seat. >> the bias is to lower yields. >> lower yields. >> yields move lower. >> lower global bond yields are certainly giving the u.s. some attention. >> that is the crux of the market. >> software happens to fall neatly in that category. >> do equities need to re-rate because rates are so low? >> are they giving us a signal that equities are at risk? >> they are able to issue whatever they want in the corporate bond market. >> you can see that has caused a change in strategy already. >> it is like everything becomes a bond. >> bonds are rallying, gold is rallying because of the nature of these things. jonathan: joining me around the table are james keenan, winifred cisar, and peter tchir. it feels like a buy everything situation. the 10-year increase below 1%. u.s. corporate borrowing costs at an all-time low. is that what this is right now, just buy everything, get when you can? winifred: everything but high-yield energy. it see

louis fed, right? >> correct. >> if you were interviewing for your research department would you hire her? >> i have a very different research department in terms of the type of academic research we o. she's been much more in the public light. my department is all publishing for academic journals. >> if someone brought her body of work and writing to you would you hire her? or him? >> her outlets are compared to what we expect our staff are two different outlets for research. >> a last statement. the takeaway is we don't know who we're nominating to the federal se serve -- reserve. ms. shelton has disavowed 40 years of her writing to say what she needs to say to be confirmed. it isn't just my colleagues on the democrat inside of the aisle who are concerned. senator shelby is concerned, i've heard others, but conservatives outside of this boddy are concerned. american enterprise institute urged the senate to reject her nomination. he wrote normally a person would be in favor of either an easy monetary p

. >> what is the fed going to do? >> the fed is divided. >> they really want to take a wait and see approach. >> the fed is behind the curve. >> coming into the year, they thought they would be comfortably on hold. i think that is still what they want. itthe marking is doing what wants -- the market is testing the fed's resolve. >> markets like to see the central banks step in. >> the case is strong for them to step in. >> they want the fed to cut. >> i don't the fed will cut. >> they should be cutting. >> i don't think the fed should cut. >> monetary policy is prepared to act, but will it be effective? >> the effectiveness would be tremendous. >> interest rates are not vaccines. >> we would see a little bit of turnaround in the markets. >> the fed is fairly impotent in this environment. >> on the other hand, if they do nothing, it could make the situation worse. jonathan: joining me around the in new york, subadra , mike of societe generale schumacher of wells fargo, and, in houston, cross mark's victoria fernandez.

chairman powell, you're the fed brd -- you and the fed brd of governors must not be swayed by these aggressive tactics. in opposing the fed's independence. you should also be mindful of public perception. trump continues to try to claim credit for economic growth that was put in motion by the plcies of president obama. congressional democrat -- president obama, congressional democrats and the federal reserve. his irresponsible trade war and g.o.p. tax scam have blown up the national debt, slowed our economic growth, and harmed hardworking american families. trump continues to squander this inherited economy. let me note that i am, however, disappointed in the fed's efforts to deregulate mega banks, most relent -- recently by proposing to further rollback the volker rule. the dodd frank act made our financial system safer, but it depends on agencies like the feds to use the tools available to monitor and mitigate threats to our economy. the committee is carefully monitoring the development in the market and the fed's response. the fed should not arbitrarily reduce liquidity requirements in resp

it really does and the fed has backed itself into a corner with the moves that it's made i hear that the willingness and i hear the desire on the part of policymakers to rein this in but i don't think that the market's going to allow it just because every single day it pushes the fed further out on the spectrum and the fed is saying april the minutes reiterated april we will have to see you know if we get through tax season and the fed is truly able to unplugged this because to me it's a monster of their own making. we want to move to the outlook for inflation and employment here right now inflation is steady on the low side with personal consumption rising just 1.6 percent in 2019 despite the jobless rate ending the year at a 50 year low now does the fed intend to return inflation back to 2 percent. well i certainly think that they think that they can but again the inflation metric that the fed utilizes imputes health care costs which is really going through the roof for the average working family it imputes health care costs using medicare and medicaid reimbursement rates so it art

you know the fed since that 1987 crash before the 1987 the fed didn't intervene like it does they got together that day in 1907 when it crashed 20 percent who is it reagan rubin and greenspan they got together and formed the working group on family anshul markets that they got the treasury to intervene at that point because the fed can't buy stocks but the treasury can and the treasury to this day has a trading desks lord knows what they're buying but the fed can intervene with just cash new cast to lend to the banks and now apparently hedge funds that they're going to start lending to they basically isolated patients arrow and patients there are still alive in 1987 being fed and pumped in pump components with all this free money right the want to group on finance later known as the plunge protection team was a response to alan greenspan's reinterpretation of the role of the fed not to try to take the punch bowl away when the party got frothy but to keep feeding the punch bowl ad infinitum and forget crashes and that was carried through through carry through yellen and now donald trum

romaine: what does a fed cut do anyway? a lot of people have said the fed doesn't do anything. we have heard from some members saying they are ready to respond. but the general idea here is a fed cut is not really going to change sentiment around something. the one thing so peculiar about this market as we look at the global bond market, it is a bigger anomaly than what we have seen in equities. f1 keeps talking about equities being at all-time highs. the global bond market, you have outside the u.s., 53% of the global bond market investment grade is negative. we have an average yield at .6%. it is wild in terms of the low yields that we are seeing. -- are you going to do anything by having that fed cut in terms of an impact on the dollar? no, because u.s. treasuries are honestly the only game in town right now. scarlet: i want to jump in because we have other corporate news. its full-yearng earnings outlook and also saying it plans to buy that $15 billion of its stock. the stock is higher in after hours training. in addition, they will reach out to xerox to explore, nation opt

i know a cornerstone of what you are trying to do at the fed is bring more transparency to the fed and some decision-making and the press conferences you have had have added a lot of transparency to it. it is hard for me to understand challenges in the capital and the inability to pin especially when 2020 started. youink i sent a letter to signed by every member on the side of the eye on financial feelces, trying to get a for what are the changes, what is the timeline for those who would undertake the stress test, getting those changes. they're trying to make decisions with multibillion-dollar balance sheets, trying to make their plan. the time is now upon us. i feel like they're being bit -- make. you and your colleagues have been a little more hesitant to answer that. >> i cannot give more clarity than exists. we will do that in a way that is timely. >> i have had a general agreement that some of the aspects of this need to be calibrated. we felt like we were doing the right thing in doing so but perhaps we had unintended effects. area wethis wasn't the needed focusing on. some of th

. >> the fed is on hold. >> the fed is ready to do what it has to do to keep things going. >> the coronavirus scare. >> the coronavirus. >> the coronavirus scare is completely dominating the conversation. >> we can still go lower. >> the message for investors is to find yield. keep your yield. >> interest rates will be even lower for even longer. >> you just can't be scared away. once you give the yield away, it is hard to get back. jonathan: joining me around the table is subadra rajappa, kathy jones, and rob waldner. kathy, typically when we start a week with sentiment like this, the next week things flip the other way and we are vulnerable to a squeeze. are we vulnerable now? kathy: it doesn't feel like it. the squeeze was people were not prepared for this. and anyone who was heavily in leveraged fixed assets has been squeezed out. so it doesn't feel like it because there's no magic wand here. this thing has to peak and come back down. that's likely to take time. jonathan: one person at the table feeling pretty good about life, it's subadra rajappa. started the year with a target on the te

. >> the fed is divided. >> they want to take a wait and see approach. >> the fed is behind the curve. >> they thought they would be comfortably on hold. i think that is still what they want. >> the market is testing the fed's resolve. >> markets like to see the central banks step in. >> the case is strong for them to step in. >> they want the fed to cut. >> i don't the fed will cut. >> they should be cutting. >> i don't think the fed should cut. >> monetary policy is prepared to act, but will be effective? >> the effectiveness would be tremendous. >> interest rates are not vaccines. >> we would see some turnaround in the markets. >> the fed is fairly impotent in this environment. >> on the other hand if they do nothing, it can make the situation worse. jonathan: joining me around the table in new york, subadra rajappa and mike schumacher and in houston, victoria fernandez. victoria, i want to begin with you. we should start with efficacy of the central bank move and the willingness of central bankers to step in. let's start with the latter. we are they? victoria: we are not seeing th

that is not the steady hand required at the fed. 11 years in the district covering more than the fed needs to be independent and careful, not reactive to every tweets coming out of the white house. ms. shelton is a voting against that independence in the nation's reputation as a financial bulwark for the whole world. our other nominee to the board mr. waller's, an economist whose work and analysis has helped direct undertaking by the fed. i look forward to read more about how he will hold austria accountable if he is confirmed. last, i want to know there should've been a third chair at this table. we are not exactly sure why but ms. jesse lewis supposed to be considered by the committee today, her nomination was withdrawn 36 hours ago although the treasury secretary told me publicly yesterday he knew for two days although i don't think the chair of this committee and i did not know as winky member. the position she was nominated for is responsible for overseeing the country's work for terrorist and drug cartel in economic sanctions. now that her nomination has been withdrawn, that po

see the central banks step in. >> they want the fed to cut. >> i don't the fed will cut. >> i don't think the fed should cut. >> on terry halsey's prepared act -- monetary policy is prepared act, but will be effective? >> the effectiveness would be tremendous. >> interest rates are not vaccines. >> the fed is fairly impotent in this environment. on the other hand if they do nothing, it can make the situation worse. jonathan: joined me the table, subadra rajappa and mike schumacher and victoria fernandez. victoria, in this conversation, we should start with efficacy of the central bank move and the willingness of central bankers to step in. let's start with the latter. we are they? >> we are not seeing them willing to do anything at this point in time. the south koreans did not lower their rates when people expected they might. you have germany coming out and saying they have enough stimulus on the table right now. they are not willing to lower rates at this point in time. i don't think we will see it from the fed. a lot of people wanted powell to make a statement or at least over the week

negative comments about the fed. so all of this stuff is just rich politics. let's get down to the essence of this. . you are the biggest regulator in town when it comes to the financial world. i have concerns i want to address that are regulatory in nature that i think in pin upon monetary policy. the repo market, for instance. these operations, you said, are temporary in nature. is that still true? chair powell: yes, our expectation is that we will continue our bill purchases at least into the second quarter and continue repo operations at least into april. the sense of that is that we are building up a level of reserves to a level that will mean we don't have to be involved in open market operations on an ongoing basis, and that is going to take that period of time. as the underlying level of reserves rises, the need for repo will decline, and sometime around the middle of the year, we will reach that level, and from that point forward, the balance sheet will grow at train demand for our liabilities. we will conti

. >> the fed has basically said they are on hold. >> the fed will do what it has to do to keep things going. >> the coronavirus. >> the coronavirus is dominating the conversation. >> find yield. >> even lower for even longer. >> once you give them away it is hard to get them back. jonathan: typically when we start a week with a segment like this, the next week things flip the other way and we are vulnerable to a squeeze. are we vulnerable right now? >> it does feel like it. the squeeze is people were not prepared. it does not feel like it. there is no magic wand here. this thing has to peak and come back down and that will take some time. jonathan: if there is one person feeling good about life, started with a target of 120 on a 10 year. 154.e not far from that at in 2003was experienced when the sars pandemic was happening. the chinese economy is a lot larger. it is coming at a bad time coming into the new year's celebration. it is impacting travel worldwide , as well as growth. jonathan: it has been a big issue, comparing 2003 to 1920. you cannot compare china in 2002 and 2003 to 192

bob: the fed does not want to change the fed funds rate. the 10-year will be in tagging 175.ance of 150 to in a risk on environment, 175 to 190. that is it for the first half of the year. priya: i completely agree with bob. the upside is a little more gapped than the downside. can the 10-year get below 150? possibly. if the fed is starting to cut rates they can go a lot more. they told us we have your back if financial conditions tightening. if the u.s. economy slows down. if it's ok, we will let it run. jonathan: we believe you, you will keep rates low. we don't believe you can generate inflation. is that the signal you see? matt: the 10-year breakeven inflation rates cannot get out of bed. it's had good reason to try. we will have decent effects pushing up the rate on your on your inflation into the first quarter of the year. the bond market does not seem to care. the one thing that stood out to me was the monetary policy report from the fed. they acknowledged the possible downside risk of the coronavirus. this is another element that wil

the fed leapt into action. smart government employees came up with a plan that led to the federal reserve letting about to hunt a billion dollars to the financial markets lending about $200 billion to the financial markets that is not been used since the crisis. i don't get is wrong for the fed to be creative and make sure the economy keeps working. it is in everybody's interest for the banks to keep lending money and credit to keep flowing so businesses can invest in manufacturing consumers can buy houses and cars. my problem is when main street faces uncertainty, nobody at the fed gets creative. the president does not criticize my tweet in person, but by name the chairman of the federal reserve when he's that she never demands corporations raise wages for workers. that is never his criticism. it is hard for families to understand why wall street gets worked up about a 2% interest rate when so many families are lucky if the payday lender down the street charges less than 400%. small businesses are having troub

rising just 1.6 percent in 2019 despite the jobless rate ending the year at a 50 year low now does the fed intend to return inflation back to 2 percent. well i certainly think that they think that they can but again the inflation metric that the fed utilizes imputes health care costs which is really going through the roof for the average working family it imputes health care costs using medicare and medicaid reimbursement rates so it artificially depresses this number to $1.00 that you're reading about in the minutes but if you look at the core c.p.i. the core consumer price index which strips out food and energy it has been running at or above 2 percent which is the fed's target for 23 straight months now so i think that there needs to be some soul searching at the fed because the average american family is not going to tell you that inflation is running too low so how would they be able to actually combat this. well they say that they want to get inflation up to a certain range and that is code that is fed speak for saying we want to keep monetary policy easier for as long as it takes to

you know the fed since that 1987 crash before the 1987 the fed didn't intervene like it does they got together that day in 1907 when it crashed 20 percent who is it reagan rubin and greenspan they got together and formed the working group on family anshul markets that they got the treasury to intervene at that point because the fed can't buy stocks but the treasury can and the treasury to this day has a trading desks lord knows what they're buying but the fed can intervene with just cash new cast to lend to the banks and now apparently hedge funds that they're going to start lending to they basically isolated patients arrow and patients there are still alive in 1987 being fed and pumped in pump components with all this free money right the want to group on finance later known as the plunge protection team was a response to alan greenspan's reinterpretation of the role of the fed not to try to take the punch bowl away when the party got frothy but to keep feeding the punch bowl ad infinitum and forget crashes and that was carried through through carries through the yellen and now don't

bob: the fed is telling us they do not want to change the fed funds rate. the 10-year will be in tagging distance of 150 to 175. in a risk-on environment, like we had a month or so ago. , 175 to 190. in a risk-off, maybe down to 150, 140. that is it for the first half of the year. priya: i completely agree with bob. the upside is a little more capped than the downside. just because we do not know the impact. so can be 10-year get much below 150? possibly. if indeed the fed is starting to cut rates they can go a lot more. the upside, the fed essentially told us we have your back if financial conditions tighten, if the u.s. economy slows down. but if things are actually ok, we will let it run. jonathan: the signal from the bond market -- we believe you, you will keep rates low. we don't believe you can generate inflation. that is a signal i am getting. is that the signal you see? matthew: absolutely. the 10-year breakeven inflation rates cannot get out of bed. they have had good reason to try. we will have decent base effects pushing up the rate of year on ye

louis fed, right? >> correct. >> if you were interviewing for your research department would you hire her? >> i have a very different research department in terms of the type of academic research we do. she's been much more in the public light. my department is all publishing for academic journals. >> if someone brought her body of work and writing to you would you hire her? or him? >> her outlets are compared to what we expect our staff are two different outlets for research. >> a last statement. the takeaway is we don't know who we're nominating to the federal reserve. ms. shelton has disavowed 40 years of her writing to say what she needs to say to be confirmed. it isn't just my colleagues on the democratic side of the aisle who are concerned. senator shelby is concerned, i've heard others, but conservatives outside of this boddy are concerned. american enterprise institute desmond lachman urged the senate to reject her nomination. he wrote normally a person would be in favor of either an easy monet

louis fed. i look forward to hearing how he will hold wall street account -- accountable if he's confirmed. last, mr. chairman, i want to note that there should have been a third chair at this table. we're not sure why but ms. jessie liu was supposed to be considered by this committee today. her nomination was withdrawn 36 hours ago. although the treasury secretary told me publicly yesterday he knew for two days. so i don't think the chair of this committee and i know i didn't know as ranking member. the position she was nominated for is responsible for overseeing our country's work, preventing terrorists and drug cartel financing, enforcing economic sanctions. now that her nomination has been withdrawn, that position will remain empty. once again, to protect himself, the president of the united states put our national security at risk. thank you, mr. chairman. mr. crapo: thank you. we'll now administer the oath. will you please rise and raise your right hand. do you swear or affirm that the tes

you know the fed since that 1987 crash before the 1987 the fed didn't intervene like it does they got together that day in 1907 when it crashed 20 percent who is it reagan rubin and greenspan they got together and formed the working group on family anshul markets that they got the treasury to intervene at that point because the fed can't buy stocks but the treasury can and the treasury to this day has a trading desks lord knows what they're buying but the fed can intervene with just cash new cast to lend to the banks and now apparently hedge funds that they're going to start lending to they basically isolated patients arrow and patient 0 is still alive in 1987 being fed and pumped in pump components with all this free money right the want to group on finance later known as the plunge protection team was a response to alan greenspan's reinterpretation of the role the fed not to try to take the punch bowl away when the party got frothy but to keep feeding the punch bowl ad infinitum and forget crashes and that was carried through through carries through the yellen and now donald trump i

it is not clear that appointing more politicians the fed board or more political hacks to the fed port will solve that. for years now, people like larry summers said the fed should not raise rates until they see the eyes. in inflation's krugman, distinguished professor of economics and the author of a new book. this is bloomberg. ♪ romaine: the u.s. holds his first contest in the 2020 presidential nominating cycle today with the iowa caucus. withore, let's go to iowa david westin. we are only a few hours away from knowing the results. what are we expecting to find out? >> we will find out who the democrats in iowa think should be their candidate for president. itis the first, which makes the most important in many respects. let's be honest, we have at had afour people -- we from polls with one result, another call today with another. we don't know yet. of the winter, what is your big question? the headline, wins the caucus, but what is the next thing you are curious about? >> comes in fourth. toticularly when it comes elizabeth warren and the former vice president, if either of them

before i get to some my questions i just want to thank you and the fed for moving had on the fed system. it will save millions of americans billions of dollars when it's implemented. we passed a huge tax cut back in december 2017. it dramatically increased the annual deficits and the long-term debt. at that time in december 2017, here's what president trump tweeted out. he said that his tax cuts were going to rock the economy to growth rates of of 4%, 5%, and maybe even 6%. mr. chairman, the economy hasn't gotten anywhere near 6% growth in the last three years, has it? >> no, we had continued moderate growth of little better than 2%. >> we haven't had 5% or 4% and, in fact, theow trump administration has not ever hit 3% annual growth, has it? >> 2018 was marked at 3% but then got marked down to 2.5%. but were having a really conversation so the answer is no, it did not hit 3%? >> according to the current statistics. >> if you look at the budget that was just submitted by the trump administration, they are predicting 2.8% growth for the coming year. again, very far from what president tr

has the fed done such a study? >> the fed has not. that's not something we would do. >> well, let me just address that if i may. i don't mean to be rude, crude and unrefined. but let me just call to your attention a study i found quite interesting, the carbon disclosure project. good project. based on thousands of disclosures, you've concluded that the 500 largest companies by market capitalize are exposed to $1 trillion in risk. now someone could argue that's probably not something that you ought to do, although i understand that climate change is something that is important to the fed because it will have an impact, global impact. but i think you can take a closer look at this. you are the ultimate authority on price stability, on wages. let have a study to determine what impact a $15 an hour minimum wage will have on the economy. a wage disclosure project, if you will. give me some thoughts, mr. powell. can you help us, please? >> there's a great deal of research that's been done on minimum wages, and i don't know a particular one,

bob: the fed is telling us they do not want to change the fed funds rate. i think the 10-year will be in tagging distance of 150 to 175. in a risk-on environment, like we had a month or so ago, 175 to 190. in a risk off environment, you are going to be maybe down to 150, 140. that is it for the first half of the year. priya: i completely agree with bob. the upside is a little more capped than the downside. just because we do not know the impact. so can be 10-year get much below 150? possibly. if indeed the fed is starting to cut rates, they can go a lot more. the upside, the fed essentially told us we have your back if financial conditions tighten, if the u.s. economy slows down. but if things are actually ok, we will let it run. jonathan: the signal from the bond market right now is we believe you, you will keep rates low. we don't believe you can generate inflation. that is the signal i am getting. is that the signal you see? matthew: absolutely. the 10-year breakeven inflation rates cannot get out of bed. they have had good reason to try. we will have de

. >> well, the former chairpersons of the fed -- >> that's fed chairman jerome powell testifying in front of the house financial services committee in day one of congressional testimony. we'll bring you back to that hearing in just a moment in the meantime, we are getting breaking numbers on boeing order s and deliveries we go to phil lebeau >> the month of january for boeing was a shutout for new airplane orders. there were zero new aircraft orders for boeing in the month of january this is the late nest a string of months we've seen going back to the grounding of the 737 max back in march last year. several months since then the company had zero new orders. they delivered 13 aircraft last month including six 787 dreamliners. there are no deliveries going on of the 737 max because it is grounded far point of reference, in january, airbus logged orders for 274 commercial airplanes back to you. >> phil, thank you let's get back to the q&a with fed chairman jerome powell >> as part of this demographics of wealth examined the connection between race and wealth accumulation over the past quar

the market beliefs the fed fed willelieves the keep rates low, may even go lower. investors don't believe they can that'se inflation and the key difference here. i just wonder if that's the reason why you take this low view and push it out through the whole curve and you stop pricing at inflation. you believe they will keep rates can you don't believe they generate inflation? >> that's exactly what happens. 2% level,r is the lowest from last year. near historic lows and you're curve,it all across the with the curve flattening. a lot of that has been driven by declining expectations for what the fed is going to do. so that component has definitely been dried. premium has definitely been driving a lot of the decline in rates. will probably continue. it's a little bit interesting to me that the fed is talking such about inflation as defined by the core pce when all atthe other indicators are or above 2% and rising. that being said, that's their benchmark. what they're doing. >> rob? >> i think that the fed really much more -- as long as i've been in the market, that's

comments about the fed. all of this stuff is rich politics. but as get down to the essence of it. you are the biggest regulator. i have concerns i want to address that are of a regulatory nature that i think him pinch on monetary policy. the repo market for instance. these operations are temporary in nature. is that still true? >> yes. our expectation is that we will continue our bill purchases at least through -- at least into the second quarter and continue operations into april. we are building up a level of reserves to a point where we don't have to be involved in open market operations on an ongoing basis and that will take that period of time. as the reserves rise, the need for repo will decline and we will reach that level of ample reserves and from that point or word, the balance sheet will grow at trend demand for liabilities. >> are you doing a review on for capital requirements financial institutions that should be participating in the repo market? >> we have reviewed supervisory and regulatory pr

you know the fed since that 1987 crash before that in 1907 the fed didn't intervene like it does they got together that day in 1907 when it crashed 20 percent who is it reagan rubin and greenspan they got together and formed the working group on family angela markets that they got the treasury to intervene at that point because the fed can't buy stocks but the treasury can and the treasury to this day has a trading desks lord knows what they're buying but the fed can intervene with just cash new cast to lend to the banks and now apparently hedge funds that they're going to start lending to they basically isolated patients arrow and patient 0 is still alive in 1987 being fed and pumped in pump components with all this free money right the want to group on finance later known as the plunge protection team was a response to alan greenspan's reinterpretation of the role the fed not to try to take the punch bowl away when the party got frothy but they keep feeding the punch bowl ad infinitum and forget crashes and that was carried through through carries through the yellen and now donald t

you know the fed since that 1987 crash before that in 1907 the fed didn't intervene like it does they got together that day in 1907 when it crashed 20 percent who is it reagan rubin and greenspan they got together and formed the working group on family angela markets that they got the treasury to intervene at that point because the fed can't buy stocks but the treasury can and the treasury to this day has a trading desks lord knows what they're buying but the fed can intervene with just cash new cast to lend to the banks and now apparently hedge funds that they're going to start lending to they basically isolated patients arrow and patient 0 is still alive in 1987 being fed and pumped in pump components with all this free money right the want to group on finance later known as the plunge protection team was a response to alan greenspan's reinterpretation of the role the fed not to try to take the punch bowl away when the party got frothy but to keep feeding the punch bowl ad infinitum and forget crashes and that was carried through through carry through the yellow and now donald trump

the fed leapt into action. smart government employees came up with a plan that led to the federal reserve letting about to hunt a billion dollars to the financial markets -- lending about $200 billion to the financial markets that is not been used since the crisis. i don't get is wrong for the fed to be creative and make sure the economy keeps working. it is in everybody's interest for the banks to keep lending money and credit to keep flowing so businesses can invest in manufacturing consumers can buy houses and cars. my problem is when main street faces uncertainty, nobody at the fed gets creative. the president does not criticize in person, but by name the chairman of the federal reserve when he's that she never demands corporations raise wages for workers. that is never his criticism. it is hard for families to understand why wall street gets worked up about a 2% interest rate when so many families are lucky if the payday lender down the street charges less than 400%. small businesses are having trouble mak

getting back to the fed as we await q&a from fed chair powell on the hill today. the fed's latest commentary highlighting possible spill overs from the virus, additional color on many things we're watching as we await that testimony. joining us now is oppenheimer chief investment strategist and chief economist diane swann. diane, how do you think the fed will elaborate on the impact of coronavirus to the country. >> lay out the most benign scenario, recovery and recooping of the losses and disruptions created by the coronavirus and then go to other scenarios that the fed will be prepared to react to if they spilled over into the u.s. economy. what really is hard for the fed chair, the minute you think you're lifting tensions and uncertainty related to trade tensions you have it replaced by coronavirus and hitting the manufacturing sector the hardest both through foreign demand and disruptions to the global supply chain. i think they will be walking through those different kinds of scenarios for congress and saying, listen, depending on how they come out, we'll dea

what are some of your ideas or the fed's ideas for cra modernization? >> well -- so i would say -- let me talk about the process. we -- we kind of agree on the overall goals. the question is how do you get after that so our thinking was to try to get to a set of improvements, really, that would lead to more efficient more effective cra. so we are looking at, you know, ways to make the assessments, the tests clearer. at the retail level there is a separate test for community development and for retail lending. and also that -- the other thing we are saying is let's make sure it is very data -- grounded in data and we have got data. we have got as the chair mentioned earlier, 6,000 data sets that we look at so i think we really know when you make a change in the metrics, we kind of know what the effects are going to be. and we feel good about that. so we try to develop our proposal around that there are a lot of overlaps but there are a handful of differences that prevented us to get to full agreement. >> the overall objective, do you believe we can remov

in but i don't think that the market's going to allow it just because every single day it pushes the fed further out on the spectrum and the fed is saying april the minutes reiterated april we will have to see you know if we get through tax season and the fed is truly able to unplugged this because to me it's a monster of their own making. we want to move to the outlook for inflation and employment here right now inflation is steady on the low side with personal consumption rising just 1.6 percent in 2019 despite the jobless rate ending the year at a 50 year low now does the fed intend to return inflation back to 2 percent. well i certainly think that they think that they can but again the inflation metric that the fed utilizes imputes health care costs which is really going through the roof for the average working family it imputes health care costs using medicare and medicaid reimbursement rates so it artificially depresses this number to $1.00 that you're reading about in the minutes but if you look at the core c.p.i. the core consumer price index which strips out food and energy it h

this is especially so for the fed. sentiment destabilize which is important at this point because we are all grappling with the outcome, the big unknowns. we need some sort of stability in the market. measures would be more effective this time around. encouraging forbearance, for instance. making sure that credit flows into the economy. , you can seede more tax relief, tax rebates. this stabilizes the demand side. wouldntral bank steps stabilize the supply-side of credit and we could end up in a better situation then we are at the moment. if we keep pushing, things good escalate quite rapidly. >> the relative experience of the relative parts of the world are going to be as a result of this. we have already seen the impact and understanding what the impact is in asia. -- in at 30ome into or 45. we do not know. howdoes europe stack up and does the united states stack up? >> again, a lot of unknowns. a working assumption for china was that the cases, the coronavirus cases in china have peaked and that we will gradually se

ahead in a live report so much to get to on this very busy day so let's get started and we begin as fed chairman drone pal gave the 1st of 2 year early updates to congress on tuesday where he was pretty upbeat about the outlook for the u.s. economy but he is concerned about the potential economic format and fallout from the coronavirus in china 1st the good news here the u.s. economy he says is in its 11th consecutive year of expansion which is the longest on record now let's be honest here because much of that expansion is simply fake expansion made possible possible by cheap money artificially low interest rates thanks to the fed and also thanks to the fed a massive pumping of money into the economy the economic expansion is well into its 11th year and it is the longest on record over the 2nd half of last year economic activity increased in a moderate pace and the labor market strengthened further as the economy appeared resilient to the global headwinds that had intensified last summer. well as for the coronavirus paul says it is too soon to know how much of an effect that virus will

john: you talked about those risks the fed is watching. buildingntion that permits data for the month of january, what is the markets general take on the health of the u.s. economy? is: overall the market interpreting the economy as being on solid footing, with a somewhat downward bias. pullbackoned about the in some business spending. the flipside of that is the fed did deliver that 75 basis points of aggregate rate cuts in the 2019. there is a lagged of monetary policy. the fed has made a very big wager that there preemptive weight cuts -- rate cuts will be enough to avoid a recession. the problem is that was before the coronavirus. now that we have the coronavirus, the market is the twoat data in distinct periods. it is easy to look at the housing data and say hey, it is all pre-virus. we are not even to the post virus. . -- virus period. terms oft about in treasuries, generally speaking? what is worth watching in the bond market? ian: for treasuries we are expecting our range, it will be a relatively low range. 1.75% in the 10 year yie

you know the fed since that 1987 crash before that in 1907 the fed didn't intervene like it does they got together that day in 1907 when it crashed 20 percent who is it reagan rubin and greenspan they got together and formed the working group on family and markets that they got the treasury to intervene at that point because the fed can't buy stocks but the treasury can and the treasury to this day has a trading desk lord knows what they're buying but the fed can intervene with just cash new cast to lend to the banks and now apparently hedge funds that they're going to start lending to they basically isolated patients arrow and patient 0 is still alive in 1987 being fed and pumped in pump components with all this free money right the want to group on finance later known as the plunge protection team was a response to alan greenspan's reinterpretation of the role the fed not to try to take the punch bowl away when the party got frothy but to keep feeding the punch bowl ad infinitum and forget crashes and that was carried through through carry through yellen and now don't trump is tryin

the fed has to deliver. tony: that is clearly what squares the circle between record high equity markets, even though they are off the bid, tight spreads and risk premiums, with treasury rates that are clearly pricing in what you would think are recessionary conditions. what connects the dots are global central bank liquidity, financial conditions that are very attractive for borrowers. you saw a record borrowing over the course of january, first couple of weeks in february, emerging market borrowers, investment and high-grade yield. that liquidity that is helping the global risk market connects the dots between the very high-end certainty around fundamentals in growth, depending on where the coronavirus develops here, versus a treasury market that is clearly, i would say, the single safe haven in the global markets today. jonathan: today, the whole curve is sinking lower. forgive me, i feel like i say this every week. this shift in the reaction function of the fed this year is so powerful. you have a federa

so now the fed's having to find other new tools. to try to try to manage the money supply and this is complex a balancing act between infusing money into the money money base while making sure that banks don't lend it out for fear of sparking hyperinflation and to try to keep interest rates low partially forward to keep the recovery going they call it the growth going and then to avoid the political trouble from the trump ministration so you get these very difficult complicated money operations that overnight lending market that aren't even in the textbooks today so it's actually difficult you know for even the biggest experts to understand this sometimes i doubt whether power understands it himself when you hear him testify it's maybe the thinking i think how certainly understands his role which is the big picture bank that is his role to prop up the job of the fed right and to keep the markets high the job of the fed is not to to allow the market to do what it needs to do at some point we have to see a dip we have to see a correct