speakers include jonah goldberg. it is part of a conference by the american political science association. this portion is just under an hour and a half. [applause] >> thank you, gene. is a pleasure to be here. people are looking for big republican gains in the midterm elections. low approvals of congress, presidential ratings, a bad ratio of what is called the " right track/wrong track" poor economic conditions and poor perceptions of the economy by voters, an advantage by republicans issue-by-issue on each of the issues that are pulled at the moment, which is a dramatic change from two years ago and four years ago, and sea- by-seat, there is a lot more honorable democrats then bolar republicans. it would seem to be likely -- there is a lot more vulnerable democrats than vulnerable republicans. no two elections are ever the same. there are limits to any attempt to find analogies. of course, we are handicapped at this moment by the minor detail of not knowing the actual result. [laughter] that imposes a further limit