i mean, that was alan greenspan. >> host: yes. i think it also behooves us to figure out what is the proper role of a central bank now that we've had it proved beyond a reasonable doubt that financial instability is a terrible thing to have happen to an economy whether it's a domestic economy or a world economy. thank you, sebastian, for a terrific book that i think illuminates not just the career of alan greenspan, but this complex era in which we have been living and operating in. i predict it will be on the shelves of historians of in this period for a long time to come. >> guest: thank you very much. >> c-span, where history unfolds daily. in 1979, c-span was created as a public service by america's cable television companies andpa is brought to you today by your cable or satellite provider. >> i decided that i missed the '60s. i was born in 1963, and i grew up in new york city on central park west, and my playground was, essentially, the staging ground for the antiwar movement, and i knew a lot, that a lot was going on as a y

there were alan greenspan t-shirts and dolls. he made you see that it was okay to go out and invest and once he became that, almost despite himself, he was imprisoned by then reputation and hard to go out and be the bringer of negative news and maybe a bit of psychologizing here but maybe the shy personality raised by a single mother in the 14930's didn't like to confront society with the bad news and didn't want to risk the popularity. if he had been more naturally confident and needy of affirmation in some ways, maybe he would have done it differently. >> could it have anything to do with his admiration of the great railroad tycoons that -- now i'm talking more about the major financial institutions. but these very smart people who were creating and running major financial institutions couldn't get it wrong? >> i think there's a bit of that. i think there was a strand in the mental history which has toh do with jpmorgan that when he was a jazz player, he would be reading economic history for fun including the story of, you know

the world has burned a lesson from the alan greenspan legacy. they think we had a crisis because of the intellectual heir but in reality we had have a cs because the political constraints on what the regulators can do and as we look at the current political season it would be foolish to presume. >> guest: there were a lot of reasons that came together for the perfect storm rather than this crisis probably was but there was a widespread phase that somehow an ended they would manage risk while. managing risk was very complicated and why would we all believe that do you think? >> guest: it was arrived at because the system is even less compelling. people understood finance could go wrong and they would lift through the failure in the collapse into bankruptcy of new york and watch to understand the first thing that happens by 23% then there's the mexico crisis and one crisis after another. why was there that apparent faith but nonetheless the financial institutions would manage their risk is because the alternative that the government could look ove

what about alan greenspan and his achievements and failings? you wrote an interesting chapter the end of the book. >> guest: as an analyst and forecaster, he was good. he was able to say the policies were materialized in the 70s and he was writing opposing the wages and price controls that prove to be true. he was right seeing how the early iteration was creating a kind of conundrum like the one that came back to bite him so a lot of the things he predicted accurately. as an analyst, he was great. as opposed to a watcher he was less good. he liked being an analyst and that comes down to understanding the man. that's right and then data goes into a question of the political constraints and what he felt he could get away with as a part of it. a very political person that had learned all kinds of tricks working for richard nixon back in the 60s and that's why it's a story not just about economics but also human frailty and machiavellian politics. >> host: and i think about the collective mindset and greed because one of the reasons it's so hard to

thesis which alan greenspan wrote and i discovered it. is that one of the central thinks this idea which later became known as tobin q, and this is notion that when asset prices rise two things happen, first of all individuals feel rich sore they spend more. a wealth affect that still late the economy. secondly, companies which see that you can sell corporate equity for more money a more likely to go out to create more corporate equity now there was again to make another factory they might find another company and corporate investment is likely to go up. at a time when the secondary market is valuing result of the investment more highly so this was central to alan greenspan's theg in 1950s. and so it followed from that that -- when the nasdaq and tech stocks were zooming up to astronomical heights it must be pushing an investment boom that went on with that. sure enough it was and fiberoptic cable made under ocean. huge booming investment driving economy upwards equally when nasdaq collapsed in 2000, 2001, it was there to cause a drying u

our big guess this hour, alan greenspan. he will give us his take on what should be on the economic agenda of the next administration. polls tome of the last come out before the u.s. election tomorrow shows hillary clinton maintaining a moderately over donald trump. that bloomberg politics poll is out this morning and shows clinton with a three point lead over trump nationally. joining us now is such a eisenberg. -- sasha eisenberg. how does it play out in the elect oral college? hillary clinton has this lead of three points for a while now and it shows that even in this comey news, it hasn't drawn from closer. we are back where we have always been. she has a structural advantage in the battleground states that forces donald trump to have an inrwhelming suite -- sweep states where he has never had a solid lead. bothis what makes campaigns seeing her in the drivers seat. jon: take us through the staples in this sense. if you are advising donald trump where what is a scenario you think he might actually have a chance of carryi

greenspan: i think it is up to the individual. tost of all, i don't like discuss hypothetical issues when we will know what the facts are very shortly. is thean tell you principles by which i think we and thosevern, for anmbiguously independent central bank which disregards the type of letters i used to get. in other words, if you took a how of the populace as to the central bank should function, everybody would be in favor of thing more money. we know what the end of the road is there. that is disaster. david: another important principle has been the benefits for everyone from globalization and free trade. inre has the failure been communicating those benefits to the people at the bottom of the food chain? dr. greenspan: that is basically our political system. it is not the job of the federal reserve to enunciate economic principles. it is the job of the president, whocongress, and all those are specifically oriented towards finance to do it. that is not the job of the federal reserve. it is the job of the federal reserve to expl

. >> rose: and we continue with sebastian mallaby who has written about alan greenspan in a much praised book called the man who knew, the life and times of alan greenspan. >> green span was extremely persuasive and comfortable in one-on-one situations. but he was also shy and difficult i dent in group, he didn't like confrontation, he was frightened going directly to people with disagreement. we go around their backs. we leak to the press, be passive aggressive am but to prik a bubble, you had to be able to take on the entire public opinion am you had to say your 401(k) is worth more than it should be and i'm going to bring down the value of your saveks. and i think he just didn't want to do that. his reputation imprisoned him. he was the maestro and didn't want to spoil that. >> rose: we conclude with kira pollack, editor of time magazine looking at the collection of the 100 most influential photos of all time. >> it is a virtual museum, there are a lot of layers, a lot of context, deep dives and there are 20 short documentaries about the pictures. >> david remnick, sebastian mallaby a

of them rob portman, also matt dolan, joyce, greenspan, expected to be here at the watch party the watch party just underway it is a packed house startt the mood here is optimistic. i think almost confident. also keeping ai on ohio democrats dave nethers is with county leaders first kevin freeman is in columbus where th people are starting to come into this banquet hall at thehe ohio regency in columbus there feeling optimistic parka about hillary clinton's chances of winning ohio parka she has a lo

vonnie: that was alan greenspan, from this morning. david: tune in for complete coverage, starting tomorrow night at 7 p.m. eastern, the election. ♪ this is "bloomberg markets," i'm vonnie quinn. david: i'm david gura. this is your global business report. the german economy might have hit a soft patch. plus we get a peek at ferrari earnings. gold lost its luster? we examine the metal today. and,ing with chairman numbers unexpectedly falling in september, confirming that the economy went through a soft patch in the third quarter. manufacturing has picked up and companies have boosted hiring. the top new york official says he's boosting compliance efforts after a crackdown on illicit money moves. they are facing a $250 million penalty from new york regulators. state officials have pursued foreign banks over violations in anti-money laundering controls, yet it's unusual to levy a penalty like that against a china controlled lender. three earnings beat estimates at the super car from fiat chrysler at the start of the year. widen the deal

alan greenspan maybe? >> i'm looking forward, dude. >> you don't think he's -- he hasn't missed a beat. you're faulting him for inflating the bubble? >> i think we got two economists on today. >> david malpes it will be fed chief? >> i don't know. but he's involved with the trump foundation -- >> the freudian slip. a lot of those lately. on the earnings front, we'll hear from macy's around 8:00 a.m., and ceo terry lundgren will join us first on cnbc. >> can i tell you a funny terry lundgren story? i walk into a shoe store last week, a guy is trying on shoes. he's vaguely familiar. he has this hair. oh, that's terry lundgren. hi, how are you? the guy looks at me, it was pierce brosnan. >> wow. >> i confused them. >> you know what? >> you've been in financial journalism too long. these people are your celebrities. >> we've always said that about terry lundgren. >> the most handsome ceo? >> in the comic books before the guy becomes the superhero, he's in a normal suit. >> maybe terry lundgren is retiring to b

going to watch lots of local races for current pay attention to rob portman, greenspan amongst others. that they will make an appearance at the watch party today,t the party beginning at 730. as they await election result t come in >> we've got you covered, venue the lab results all evening. you can go to fox 8.com for continuing coverage . much more to come tonight, with the poll scheduled to clos we continue to lead for the election result, the rain is pouring outside trenton the clouds around and around midday sunset was at 514 p.m. procurement there will be super moon, the biggest the century the closest path to earth since 1948,pa 40 percent larger and 30 percent brighter. a few sporadic showers overnight will continue tomorrow, the clouds will then ou tomorrow afternoon. the winds between five and 15 will become gusty or tomorrow. it will bring in some cooler temperatures for current . will still be if you spotty showers overnight especially east of 77 to the west, to be some brighte spots around midday clouds thinning to the east sparta occasional showers with the winds gusting

greenspan and the staff of fed took the view that we should follow private markets and they said no, you have to actually do the job you are required to do which is to look at the terms of these loans. with the regulators looking the other way and the bush administration actively encouraging the use of private credit markets as a form of economic stimulus because to fit their ideological claim, you then saw, not surprisingly wall street stepped into the breach. that's what they do. they like to make money. they started selling loans that have low interest rates and then exploded into high rates that the borrowers could not afford. the these have a technical term. they're called sucker loans. they started selling those loans out large volumes and they started making a lot of money by doing that. were selling them by using a cut out like stripmall benders, the banks finance those people in the banks secured them and sold them to capital markets. this was very profitable. banks began to take market share in a huge way by doing this. subprime lending began to dominate the mortgage market

visit ncicap.org] ords,"ight on "afterw author sebastian malady talks about the life and times of alan greenspan. he is interviewed by the brookings institution senior fellow of economic study. >> he was raised in the 1930's. he was the child of a single mom . his father left his mother when was only three. he was a distant figure, often unreliable, who would say he was going to come to his family and often not show up. i think this reinforced his tendency to live inside his own head. >> tonight at 9 p.m. eastern on "afterwords." .org for the entire schedule. about 12 million immigrants seeking a new life in america were taken to ellis island for questioning and screening. take ferryans today boats to visit ellis island and see the statue of liberty. on "american artifacts," we visit the ellis island immigration museum. >> this canopy in this spot would have been a place where immigrants would have just gotten off the boat, would have lined up to go in this door and begin their process. what they had with them was virtually only what was important to them. bringing and were entire families at th

also matt dolan and david joyce greenspan, and gina vernaci. according to the republican party occ, they're very efforts this year. in the past four years, they expect a very good turnouts wit republicans in cuyahoga county. the party here under way at 730 until 11:30 p.m. there could be a late-nightti, crab, it will be rocking or it could be quieter here. crop bistro kirtland once the the results,po lou maglio to explain how the numbers break down. it will give us an idea of how the election is going, it i not the popular vote it is the electoral vote the magic number is 270. when the votes come in and confirmed that a certain candidate has won a certain this is all just hypothetical. this is hot what would work. gev hillary clinton these numbers. and then you will see the votes climbmb down to donald trump, g him these and the magic number isma 270. the key states to be watching, battleground states, florida, north carolina, probably the most pivotal. new hampshire,py which is critical. he thinks he has a shot atc michigan. and of course ohio

washington post columnist sebastien talked about the creative alan greenspan. george discussed his impact on immigration on the u.s. economy. being capital cofounder argued how income inequality has contributed to economic growth. in in the coming weeks on afterwards, former senate majority leader and george mitchell explores the potential for peace between israel and palestine. however business school professor explores the motivation of white-collar criminals. , and up, georgetown university philosophy professor will discuss the flaws in democratic system. this weekend, editor at large for the guardian, gary young will talk about the investigation of gun violence in america. >> theories of america, that's where things like this happen. and that if young person's shot dead and one of those areas it does not challenge her understanding of the way america works it confirms it. did you think things would follow. it's it's not so surprising somebody would get shot in the area. it becomes not news. that phrase when dog bites man, that's not news. it's one man white

alan greenspan this morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: official "bloomberg urveillance," everyone looking east. francine: how beautiful. let's head to, the bloomberg business flash with taylor riggs. hsbc reported third-quarter earnings that beat estimates. profit was up 7%. the ceo has been cutting costs and bolstering the banks capital cushion. he has been trying to redeploy more assets into asia. that has been, located by the slowing economy in china. that is the bloomberg business flash. much better than expected. and you look at brexit, because it is so skewed towards emerging markets, climbing for it hsbc. tom: i think it is a bull market at hsbc. and they are finally seeing the fruits of what they have done. tony: banks generally are looking to raise capital. the december meeting will be pulled up at some point. do we have a breakout? do we have escape velocity? because the focus would be to keep negative through 2000 21. highly unlikely. the same for the bank of japan. tom: thank you so much for joining

it was in 1991 in alan greenspan decided to raise short term interest rates to stem a banking the banking group, always the best and broadest of leaders, as we are seeing again this time around, just took off out of thin air until you realized that greenspan's rate hike was giving the financials a chance to rebuild capital because it meant they could get a much better return from investing your deposits. it government their earnings on track. it instilled a level of confidence in stocks that we hadn't seen since reagan was elected, and then we were off to the races. these ot instances where the federal government didn't just stand there. it did something, and those somethings were very good for the stock market. i reach back to those two incidents because they led to growth spurts that led people back to the stock market in droves. they changed the perception of the asset class from negative to positive. the entire asset class of equities. i think that could be exactly what's happening right now. people are starting to talk about this economy being able to grow sustainably next year, perh

the life of the former federal reserve chair in his book the man who knew, the life and times of alan greenspan. he is interviewed at the brookings institution, senior fellow of economic studies. >> an unusual upbringing, raised in the 1930s, his father left his mother and there was a distance figure, he would not show up and that reinforced a tendency to live inside his own head. >> sunday at 9:00 eastern go to booktv.org for the complete weekend schedule. >> federal reserve chair janet yellen tells the joint economic committee that a rising interest rates may occur relatively soon and discusses factors contributing to that. this is an hour and 45 minutes. [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] >> the committee will come to order. we are welcoming this morning chair yellen, federal reserve chairman. i would like to announce to my colleagues filing in shortly, we have a hard stop at noon for the chairman's ache and a senate vote so we are doing everything we can to give everybody the opportunity to ask questions of the chair but m

that was alan greenspan. >> yes. ... >> c-span where history unfolds daily. in 1979 c-span was created as a public service by america's cable television companies and is brought to you today by your cable or satellite provider. yudhijit talks about agent trying to sell to libya. >> thank you all for coming out. i think what we will do. judhijit can talk for first 20 to 25 minutes and image there would be questions particularly in the book and issues that the books have raised about more contemporary cases and so we can sort of spin off from there and so i guess where should we start, yudhijit, thank you for inviting me to do this. >> no, absolutely. thanks to the wilson center where i was a fellow january through may 2015 when i was hard at work on this book so it's very nice to be able to speak to all of you here at this great institution. nick, has been a friend of mine, he's obviously a very accomplished journalist, i'm really glad that you're doing this, nick, with me, i'm delighted to talk with you about the book, to let's get started. >> great, i guess

greenspan and his staff took the view that we should follow what the markets are doing. they're self-correcting. no, you have to do the job that you were statutorily required to do. look at whether the terms of these loans are exploitive. with regulators looking the other way and the bush administration actively encouraging the use of private credit markets as a form of economic stimulus because it fit the ideological frame, you then saw not surprisingly wall street step into the breach. they started moving -- they started selling the 228 loans. they started selling loans that had small interest rates for a short period of time and then exploded. into high rates the borrowers could not afford. these are a technical term. they're called sucker loans. they started selling those loans at large volumes. and they started making a lot of money by doing that. and selling them by using cutout, like strip mall vendors, financing -- bans financed those people. the loans came back to the banks. the banks securetized them and sold them to the capital markets. this was very profitabl

greenspan and his staff took the view that we should follow what the markets are doing. they're self-correcting. no, you have to do the job that you were statutorily required to do. look at whether the terms of these loans are exploitive. with regulators looking the other way and the bush administration actively encouraging the use of private credit markets as a form of economic stimulus because it fit the ideological frame, you then saw not surprisingly wall street step into the breach. they started moving -- they started selling the 228 loans. they started selling loans that had small interest rates for a short period of time and then explode. into high rates the borrowers could not afford. they're called sucker loans. they started making a lot of money by doing that. selling them by using cutout like strip mall vendors, banks financed those people. the loans came back to the banks. the banks securetized them and sold them to the capital markets. this was very profitable, and the banks began to take market share in a huge way by doing this. subprime lending began to do

. >> sebastian mallaby discusses the life of former federal reserve chair alan greenspan in his book, "the man who i knew." he's interviewed by alice rivlin, senior fellow of economic studies at the brookings institution, and former vice chair of the federal reserve from 1996-999 -- 1999. >> host: sebastian, welcome. i'm delighted to be to doing this, and i think it's a

greenspan, he was not related to this -- but he said if a ceo could go to his board and say we need to make a 30 year investment with all the uncertainty of interest rates and regulatory environment, etc., versus invest in these financial instruments, that they are choosing the financial instruments over the productivity. andd you say that is true on relevant, or not true? chair yellen: i think we see a short-term decision-making that is disturbing. the causes of that i think are .ot clear i certainly do not think it is our monetary policy, but it is we commit to projects. in part, they do not see that many projects that they think will produce returns that justify those investments. it is conceivable that we see evidence that the face of technological change has diminished, and it me a reflection of that. sen. cassidy: thank you. janet: that is fed chair yellen speaking before congress and also, president obama and german chancellor angela merkel are holding a news conference in berlin. for thes thanking obama reliable u.s.-german relationship. she said the paris climate treaty would

greenspan may be the most powerful unelected american of the last 50 years. this is a wonderfully written intelligence biography of his climb up the pinnacles of power, it's also a vivid portrait of the american establishment as it moved right from the 1970s to the 1980s and 1990s. now for the last would think. two tuesdays ago many americans headed to the polls while halfway around the world some people in japan had trouble heading to work. this giant sinkhole roughly 100 feet wood and 50 feet deep opened on a five-lane street in a southwestern city. the following tuesday as many americans were still reeling over the election result their counterparts in japan were back to normal. that enormous hole was filled in, utilities were restored and the road was perfectly resurfaced all within a week. japan's shinzo abe this week became the first world leader to meet in person with president-elect donald trump wanting reassurance on u.s./japan relations. maybe trump should have taken advantage of the opportunity and asked him for some road repair tips as well. >> th

gre greenspan may be the most powerful unelected american of the last 50 years. this is a wonderfully written intelligent intimate biography of his climb up the pinnacles of power. it's also a vivid portrait of the american establishment as it moved right from the 1970s to the 1980s and 1990s. now for the last look. two tuesdays ago many americans headed to the polls while halfway around the world some people in japan had trouble heading to work. this giant sinkhole roughly 100 feet wood and 50 feet deep opened on a five-lane street in a southwestern city. the following tuesday as many americans were still reeling over the election result their counterparts in japan were back to normal. that enormous hole was filled in, utilities were restored and the road was perfectly resurfaced all within a week. japan's shinzo abe this week became the first world leader to meet in person with president-elect donald trump wanting reassurance on u.s./japan relations. maybe trump should have taken advantage of the opportunity and asked him for some road repair tips as well. >> t

alan greenspan was changing the way the fed works and then greenspan coming in, and this is depression -- the suppression of volatility. driven yields so much that markets got dislocated. we're going back to a pro cyclical market. is what are up and this should be happening in this environment. the environment now, this is been coming through way before trump's omentum for this. yousef: oppenheimer funds warns there could be a japan sought -- style stagnation. bond markets getting way ahead of themselves. are you saying all of this seems logical? >> we think you get to next year, you need a big rise in the dollar. in december and probably to next year. yousef: isn't that a bit conservative? especially if the fiscal stimulus comes through. >> let's see who gets on the board. who joins the presidential seat. we could see them get more aggressive on interest rates. they may not need to do more than two. >> let's pick up on that. this is the one your implied policy rate change. still shy of pricing in two h ikes within a year. despite all the talk of what donald trump's economic policies m

alan greenspan is talking about another world that doesn't exist anymore. jonathan: i learned if you really want to get lacey -- lisi fired up, you talk to a yield of 5%. lisa: that would change anything. jonathan: lisa abramowicz and thierry wizman, global registry strategist. he will be staying with us. let's get you up to speed on the headlines. here's emma chandra. emma: theresa may says she will work to reinforce the relationship with the u.s., no matter who the next president is. she told sky news she will call whoever wins today's election as soon as possible. on sunday, she had said she wished the president race to be more calm and measured. germany has arrested five minnick used of recruiting -- five men accused of recruiting for the islamic state in germany and raising my to send them to syria to join up with islamic militants. meanwhile, german chancellor on the merkel's government wants to cut carbon dioxide pollution by more than half over the next 15 years. that's according to the draft of the plan obtained by bloomberg. the reduction would be

it was in 1991 in alan greenspan decided to raise short term interest rates to stem a banking collapse. the banking group, always the best and broadest of leaders, as we are seeing again this time around, just took off out of thin air until you realized that greenspan's rate hike was giving the financials a chance to rebuild capital because it meant they could get a much better return from investing your deposits. it government their earnings on track. it instilled a level of confidence in stocks that we hadn't seen since reagan was elected, and then we were off to the races. these were both specific instances where the federal government didn't just stand there. it did something, and those somethings were very good for the stock market. i reach back to those two incidents because they led to growth spurts that led people back to the stock market in droves. they changed the perception of the asset class from negative to positive. the entire asset class of equities. i think that could be exactly what's happening right now. people are starting to talk about this economy being able to gro

and then into the greenspan era as well. we see this declining care of lines. are we about here starting to break that trend? and what is the meaning of this for the investment community and for the corporate sector? donald trump's transition team launched a website outlining the president-elect's plans regarding health care, immigration, the financial sector and the energy sector. and what the regulations for those sectors will mean. how does big business feel about what is happening, trumpflation, and the regulatory story? here is what the ceos have to say. >> he will be pretty pragmatic. he is a businessman with a lot of experience in property development. he has run big projects. i think he will surprise on the upside and i think he will be a good president. >> there is a big opportunity here when the government and the president wants to rebuild the infrastructure. >> the policy of tax reduction and getting rid of dodd-frank and replacing it with something else. fiscala of getting discipline. those are positive. there is a lot to be hopeful about. >> the m

the greenspan theory that we're not having investment in real estate and structures because of all the uncertainty has a pretty clear testable implication; namely, the structures that substitute for new investment, existing structures should be declining in value or should have seen their value go down or should have their value depressed, or you should be able to see some impact of all of this uncertainty in the value of existing structures. and all you have to do is look at read prices to test that idea, and the data go very much in the opposite direction. so i think if you want to make that argument, you at least need some explanation for what's happened to the price of existing assets. >> so do you have a story about why elevated commercial real estate prices would go along with weak private investment? >> yeah. i think, i think that there are a set of issues around regulation and zoning, rules on, rules on land use, difficulty in permitting that would operate in exactly that direction. it would make it harder to build new stu

alan greenspan said get rid of it. icahn with me said don't. what do you think happens? >> the difference between what i should think and will happen -- >> what do you think will happen? >> i think it will be tweaked. tweaked around the edges. the lack of piling on -- >> tweaked that it has a material impact on the banks' bottom lines? >> it's the absence of a negative. this entire decade the building up of regulation is done. >> judge, when we saw what was happening in wells fargo and some of the members of our panel mocked me for wells fargo and i said you buy this thing, you close your eyes and buy this thing. it's up 12%. >> blood was in the street. >> i said, everybody always says, warren buffett says buy when there's blood in the street. i guess today would be a day you'd sell some of these then because there is clearly greed in some of these names. but to mike's point, you look at a bank like wells fargo, unless we were in the same regime and the same sort of scenario where you're seeing $10 billion, $14 billion fines rested out of these banks and the shareholders

it was in 1991 in alan greenspan decided to raise short term the banking group, always the best and broadest of leaders, as we are seeing again this time around, just took off out of thin air until you realized that greenspan's rate hike was giving the financials a chance to rebuild capital because it meant they could get a much better return from investing your deposits. it government their earnings on track. it instilled a level of confidence in stocks that we hadn't seen since reagan was elected, and then we were off to the races. these were both specific instances where the de government didn't just stand there. it did something, and those somethings were very good for the stock market. i reach back to those two incidents because they led to growth spurts that led people back to the stock market in droves. they changed the perception of the asset class from negative to positive. the entire asset class of equities. i think that could be exactly what's happening right now. people are starting to talk about this economy being able to grow sustainably next year, perhaps by as much as 4%. tha

the greenspan theory that we're not having investment in real estate and structures because of all the uncertainty has a pretty clear testable implication; namely, the structures that substitute for new investment, existing structures should be declining in value or should have seen their value go down or should have their value depressed, or you should be able to see some impact of all of this uncertainty in the value of existing structures. and all you have to do is look at read prices to test that idea, and the data go very much in the opposite direction. so i think if you want to make that argument, you at least need some explanation for what's happened to the price of existing assets. >> so do you have a story about why elevated commercial real estate prices would go along with weak private investment? >> yeah. i think, i think that there are a set of issues around regulation and zoning, rules on, rules on land use, difficulty in permitting that would operate in exactly that direction. it would make it harder to build new structures, and that would tend to raise the value of exist

alan greenspan was on yesterday. stephen: who? tom: on daybreak and surveillance as well and chairman greenspan didn't forecast a single point estimate but alluded to higher yields to come including the quotable phrase, 5% yields. i would suggest dr. roach would push against that. stephen: well, it's amazing to me you have the maestro on predicting interest rates. to get interest rates anything close to that level you have to think of a very different world in terms of inflation, in terms of global growth and we're as far away from that now as we've been at any point in our career. the lessons of japan which i think are the template for what we're going through now in the broad developed world is long term interest rates can stay a lot lower post bubble even than alan greenspan had envisioned. tom: i set you up because of the chairman's love for the federal reserve system. how do you invest the investors of b.m.o. federal market to be in the market when there's so much doubt out there because of the higher rates. a n: throwing out

i had a conversation with alan greenspan a couple months ago. i said this is the first time in eight years we've not had gdp growth over 3%, is this the new norm? he said it might be. that long-term capital investment continues to decline. now, i have a graph, i'm sorry, i wish i could blow it up, but you think in numbers so it's probably clear to you. it look like since 2011 the year over year growth in capital expenditures by fortune 500 companies has declined pretty significantly. and it occasionally levels, but then it begins to decline again. on the other hand, every time there's a qe there is a spike in buybacks. so there are those who say the easy money has made it easier for big corporations to arbitrage as opposed to make money by long-term capital investment. going back to my conversation with former chair greenspan, he said that if you go to a board of directors and you say we need a 30-year spending plan for capital investments, they're going to say where's the certain certainty? on the other hand, if you say we can invest in whateve

summers doesn't see i think is provided by alan greenspan on the subject of confidence. you mention simpson-bowles, and that's why i'm addressing this to you. i think what greenspan would say, if you look at the lack of investment, it's all in long-term assets, not the stock market which is perceived as a short-term investment. long-term investment. then he says when you look at the situation with the budget deficit and projected budget deficits, which are an order of magnitude higher than they have ever been before and are really pretty scary, put those together it's very difficult to have confidence in the future to make long-term investments. maybe we should be flipping this argument around. if we can fix that long-term problem, it might help with productivity and growth. i'm wondering, i know it's all politically imposz zable. is part of the reason why it's politically impossible because economists don't convey the message, yes, we really have to focus on this and do it. >> i agree with that sentiment, uncertainty about the long-term fiscal situation is probably -- a

meanwhile jonathan greenspan down in telluride has 42, very warm for the mo there, feels like a change is coming in jonathan it absolutely is. 4 to 8 inches of snow possible for telluride by tomorrow. it's going to feel like summer before winter arrives tomorrow. a high of 79. that will blow away the old record of 77. let's get a check on the traffic. here's joel. >>> we have video to show you and i'm sure this will -- we will see you this a couple times. this is a car fire we had 10 and greenland. you saw the explosion there and fire crews quickly working to get that under control. a portion of the grass also lit on fire. they were able to get that under control as well. we still have some delays in and around that area. let me show you live what we've got from our cdot camera. look at this long line of cars were you can see them extending and wrapping around well before greenland and we will see big delays because of this in the northbound direction of i-25 all the way out to larkspur >>> after a 2-1 loss to mexico the u.s. men's soccer team is looking for points in the world cup qua

going back to my former conversation with chair greenspan. he said if you go to the board of directors and said we need a 30 year spending plan for capital investment, they will say, where is the certainty? if you say we will invest in the credit or bond market and have a return, they will. hurte perversely investment? chair yellen: there are a number of factors that have been depressing gdp growth. estimategues now long-term growth rate is likely to settle under 2% without some change in policy. we have a more slowly growing labor force. attainment ofl the workforce, which had been increasing at a more rapid rate, is now leveling off. there is less contribution there. i agree with you that capital investment has been weak. that is one reason that productivity growth has been as depressed as it is, even outside of investment. improvements in technology that come from other sources also seem to have diminished. clear to my mind why investment spending has been as weak as it is. initially we have had a lot of economy with excess capacity. opera

cbs4 weather greenspan down in telluride has 38 and reporting some light snow there at his house near telluride. jeff on the eastern plains not far from the kansas line, he has 47 in burlington. and phil curly in east franktown, 49 looks like phil has something to say. let's see -- you're absolutely right phil. and in fact that 49 you have? that's a normal high temperature in franktown this time of year, we'll check the full planning forecast and including the thanksgiving outlook coming up. right now over to joel. bit this morning ashton as you're heading out across the denver metro area. take a look from the cdot cameras, this is i-76 and i-270 and of course both directions loading up. we have got a couple more days to get out there and get to work. the good news is you don't have a lot of school traffic a lot of schools already off for the thanksgiving break. up into the high country, a little bit of a different situation once you get west of vail pass, some icy condit especially from springs. >>> the annual champagne cascades were last night. [ cheering and applause ] just love it

but it isly prophetic the most dissent since greenspan and bernanke. talk me through the complexion of the fed 2017. a more aggressive, hawkish fed? lena: i think what is clear is the fed has mastered the art of tightening. presided over a remarkable year for growth in employment which is clearly running and little on the hot side in the words of janet yellen and airing down on the unemployment rate. aat has led the fed to have strategic lever with respect on focusing with economic conditions and having a strong handle on financial conditions. the message between data dependency or an economy that diminish butit wants to have strong conditions. the fed has done a good job given the dissent. yousef: i'm looking at the implied probability function and we are at 17.1% for november. jpmorgan described today's meeting as a bit of a kabuki dance in terms of fostering. anna: i need a dictionary for that one. the chart shows the increase. i think it is clear the market is very sensitive to the fed's differential message because what is important here is the fe

greenspan had an unusual upbringing in the sense that they were raised in the 1930's, the child of a single mother. 's father left his mother when allen was only three and was a distant figure, unreliable. he would sometimes say he would calm and not show up. i think that probably reinforced a tendency that alan had to live inside his own head. announcer: go to book tv ductwork for the complete weekend schedule -- book tv.org for the complete schedule. announcer: american history tv is joining our comcast partners to showcase the history of pittsburgh, pennsylvania. to learn more about the city is on our current tour, visit www.c-span.org/citiestour. atcontinue now with our look the history of pittsburgh. mayor peduto: we are in pittsburgh, pennsylvania. this town was a frontier town with a fort that was settled by the french. along came a long -- along came a young major in the virginia militia, with a mission of saying, this is land that great britain wants. does begin the french and indian war, the seven-year work, over who would control the confluence of pittsburgh. that major's

summers doesn't see i think is provided by alan greenspan on the subject of confidence. you mention simpson-bowles, and that's why i'm addressing this to you. i think what greenspan would say, if you look at the lack of investment, it's all in long-term assets, not the stock market which is perceived as a short-term investment. long-term investment. then he says when you look at the situation with the budget deficit and projected budget deficits, which are an order of magnitude higher than they have ever been before and are really pretty scary, put those together it's very difficult to have confidence in the future to make long-term investments. maybe we should be flipping this argument around. if we can fix that long-term problem, it might help with productivity and growth. i'm wondering, i know it's all politically impact. is part of the reason why it's politically impossible because economists don't convey the message, yes, we really have to focus on this and do it. >> i agree with that sentiment, uncertainty about the long-term fiscal situation is probably -- invest

greenspan and the staff took the view that we should just follow what the markets are doing and they are self-correcting and he said no, you have to actually do the job you are statutorily required to do which is to look at whether the terms of these loans are exploited. with the regulators looking the other way and the bush administration actively encouraging the use of private credit markets as a form of economic stimulus because it fit their ideological frame, then we saw, not surprisingly, wall street step into the breach. that breach. that is what those people do. they like to make money. so they started moving, they started selling the two and 20 loans. they started selling loans that have low interest rates for short time and then exploded. these have a technical term, they're called sucker loans. they started selling those loans at large volumes and they started making a lot of money by doing that. they were selling them using a cutout like stripmall vendors, those loans came back to the banks and the banks sold them into the markets. this was very profitable. the banks began

would you welcome, please, bud greenspan? bud? [ applause ] [ music ] how ya feelin'? >> in good shape. looking forward to the summer. looking forward to the naming of the heisman winner, next week. >> that's right, you're workin' on that, aren't ya? >> yeah. it's, uh-- goes on, december 3rd, we'll know. it might be a nebraska person, john. >> could very well be mike rozier, couldn't it? >> yeah. >> yeah. >> rozier, or turner gill, or... >> good-- >> you always show up with some kinda interesting film, and we're gonna have to tonight, because we got a little bit behind. um, does this need any setup, or just tell us what's-- >> well, really, uh, d-- uh, in doing the heisman film-- >> right. >> we know all about the great ones that, uh, made it. >> right. >> now, we're gonna show ya all the film o' those who didn't make it. >> one o' these, huh? >> yeah, it's one o' these situations, so-- >> okay, watch the monitor. in the studio. >> and, uh-- >> and you can-- here it is, right up here. >> the first one is, uh-- [ chuckling ] uh, a defensive back, who, uh, really didn't

." >> alan greenspan had an unusual upbringing in the sense he was raised in the 1930's. he was the child of a single mom. his father left his mother when he was only three. and then was a distant figure, unreliable. sometimes even say he would come to see his son and not show up. i think that reinforced the tendency alan had to live inside his own head. >> go to booktv.org for the complete schedule. welcome to pittsburgh on american history tv. it is located in western pennsylvania had the junction of three rivers. pittsburgh begin as a strategic military location, but grew with the mass production of steel and glass industries. over the next few hours we will share the story of pittsburgh's growth. >>

greenspan and his staff took the view that we should follow what the markets are doing. they're self-correcting. no, you have to do the job that you were statuetorially required to do. the bush administration actively encouraged the use of private markets for the stimulus. then you saw not surprisingly wall street step into the breach. they started moving -- they started selling the 228 loans. they started selling loans that had small interest rates for a short period of time and then explode. they're called sucker loans. they started making a lot of money by doing that. selling them by using cutout like strip mall vendors, banks financed those people. the loans came back to the banks. the banks securetized them and sold them to the capital markets. this was very profitable, and the banks been to take market share in a huge way by doing this. subprime lending began to dominate the mortgage markets in 2003 and 2004 before fannie and freddie are in the market. now you come to the other piece of the puzzle. back when fannie and freddie were responsible, as peter puts it, th