lisa: i'm leaving right now. jonathan: is this to offset lisa? tom: we are attempting come -- we are attempting, but failing to offset lisa. bevan was loaded. zinet loaded with happy talk. lisa: happy talk about purina and lysol. i can go there. tom: well, they are showing good, organic revenue growth. jonathan: it is important to understand the reaction function of market per dispense over the last -- market part is immense over the last several months to -- -- market to spence market participants over the last several months to buy. lisa: the reality is they have been right, and they may continue to be right based on the backdrop of yield and the backdrop of the fiscal impulse. i am not saying they are not. it is just a dissonance, as we heard from joe stiglitz yesterday of some of the pitfalls we are seeing and what we are hearing out of companies, as well as some of the , like netflix showed. it is interesting. jonathan: who use to the doom, gloom, boom report? who was that. tom: joe granville. granville.reat joe jonathan: i would love that.

tom: lisa, do you want to chime in here? lisa: not really. [laughter] jonathan: i know what lisa is thinking. let's get to the markets. let's do that. squeezing out a third week of gains on the s&p 500 last week. equity futures this morning, they are talking. more talking. we are up 0.9% on the s&p 500. in the fx market, euro firmer. no idea why. weaker dollar story in the mix. we can talk about the data out of china. that recovery in the second largest economy is really impressive. tom: what you do is compare and contrast. it is really important to take that statistic and compare it to the negative statistics you are seeing in somewhat of the world on a relative basis. look at what renminbi does, down to 6.68. jonathan: recovery in china, moaned him in the united states -- momentum in the united states. lost momentum, perhaps, in europe. tom: what did you do this weekend? i had a great weekend. jonathan: i was just thinking yesterday evening, after watching that game, what can i do at 7:00 eastern when i open the show? the markets, stimulus

on thursdays with lisa abramowicz. [laughter] we know what lisa will be doing. looking at the fed balance sheet. coming up, robert tipp, chief investment strategist. all eyes are on the capital, washington, d.c.. this is bloomberg. ♪ bloomberg. ♪ >> with the first word news, i am ritika good step. the second and final debate is tonight in nashville, one of the final high-profile chances for president trump to change the narrative of the campaign. polls show him losing to joe biden. debate rules have changed. a candidate's microphone will be muted at times when the other candidate is speaking. the president has complained it is unfair. he said the same thing about the topics and the moderator, nbc's kristen walker. democrats on the senate judiciary committee plan to show their unhappiness with the nominee amy coney barrett they. will boycott today's vote to advance her nomination to the full senate. republicans have a majority on the panel,'s on the move will not prevent the nomination from moving ahead. sunak has., rishi unveiled another bailout for business

lisa: and for parties. jonathan: he's great at a party as well, lisa, when things reopen. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. ande speaker nancy pelosi treasury secretary steven mnuchin are moving closer to a deal on a new stimulus package. --zie hopes ash policy hope pelosi hopes she can get a deal by the election. senate majority leader mitch mcconnell is warning the white house about a deal before that election. he has not committed to a pre-election vote. british prime minister boris johnson will impose the tightest coronavirus restrictions on greater manchester. johnson warned that lives would be at risk if the government failed to act. the prime minister also left open the prospect of a national lockdown if infection rates keep climbing. shares of netflix are falling today. the streaming service missed wall street estimates for subscribers. that renewed doubt about its ability to maintain growth. netflix had warned that the pandemic-driven subscriber boom wouldn't last. the company says the surge in new customers could suppress

lisa: you don't say. barry: the thesis that cities are dying in any sort of apartment or office space rates are terrible parallels what we heard about mall investments just a couple of years ago, before the pandemic. it turns out we are pretty good at figuring out how to repurpose these things and generate some sort of return. i am not brave enough to be loading the boat with apartment reads located in urban centers. that is not my specialty. there are other people who focus on things like that. look at folks that run hedge funds specifically to invest in real estate related ventures. you come up with an investable thesis that is complicated, it requires a paired trade, but there is certainly dislocations and that means opportunity. lisa: meanwhile we are headed to an election seven days away, and i was struck by a slate article talking about how the states that have gotten hit hardest by the pandemic all vote democratic and are run by democratic leadership come and talk about how this is complicating som

lisa: it's authentic. jonathan: it's cool. lisa: i like it. jonathan: ok, i don't want to get hate mail about this. [laughter] buy, tom says it's a clear and you say you need bookshelves. john, you were great. jonathan: big tech delivering tomorrow. tom: and this cloud issue is really important, the sustainability. i don't have any clue what they are going to report. it is not our job to try to front run with the earnings will be. but as a statement of this pandemic, the separateness of these performances is just stunning. jonathan: alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. already getting the messages. it was just a joke. i like the pile of books. he doesn't need to get a bookshelf. lisa: i thought it was fine. jonathan: don't encourage it, lisa. i can see it coming through the boom blurred desta bloomberg. daniel morris -- through the bloomberg. daniel morris, bnp paribas senior investment strategist. lisa: look at those markets. tom: how about those markets? [laughter] jonathan: i can keep going. let's get to the bond mar

lisa: one of those big areas has been housing. we are getting housing starts and building permits for the month of september at 8:30 a.m. we might see a bit of a cooling as a result of the wildfires. i do knew that at the home of the keanes, they will be taking a new mortgage. tom: this is really important at procter & gamble. they've got a next pop here with the length of the pandemic. i think that is endemic of what is happening not in tech. jonathan: i got really worried for a moment and thought a dog might be sent my way, when you said he was moving out. [laughter] view.ifting their lisa: it will be interesting to see whether they stay-at-home trade, the fact that everybody and their mother has a netflix account, the idea of how much that has continued with momentum with their stock. it is another day in the markets, so we are going to be talking about fiscal support debates, and this is the deadline later today, the new deadline. jonathan: is it? lisa: that's for you to decide. jonathan: is? ? it a deadline -- is it a deadlin

lisa: nailed it. jonathan: thank you, lisa. i'm trying. [laughter] i'm drinking now in the afternoons. tom: are you? that's good news. jonathan: the chairman of the fed this afternoon. he's talking a little bit later. i am sure they will have a quick mention of spacex. tom: i'm sure they will. seriously, the inflation vector on both sides of the atlantic really different with this inflation indicating five-year five-year breakevens. jonathan: inflation indications in europe get your expectations. i think that is going to be front and center, and the conversation around the european central bank really highlighting that this morning. let's get to the price action. lisa: look at those markets. jonathan: i'm going to make it to thursday. [laughter] lisa: something like that. jonathan: the president back in the white house. from london and new york, the tension on d.c.. futures up. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president trump says there's no reason to fear the coronavirus that has killed more than 210,

lisa: let's build on this. the idea of amendment to him -- the idea of oh -- update momentum shift away from the lower workers that were initial victims to the higher income workers. bank cuts are on pace to top what we shot -- what we saw last year. insurance companies are cutting. energy companies are cutting. as these higher paid jobs get eliminated from the system, is the trickle-down effect, is that weakness being adequately accounted for in the current projections? when: i think this is why you talk to a lot of economists, including myself, you will get a cautious tone about the speed of the further decline in the unemployment rate. you will not hear a lot of people say we will have 5% unemployment within 12 months or anything like that. i would take it back to those three factors i mentioned. some of this is forward-looking, some of this is backward looking , and some of it is tweaking and trying to gain efficiencies, maybe some efficiencies that have been realized, but were not recognized before the cri

lisa: what about the u.s.? there's a feeling you should go into riskier credit here because the fed has your back and they will continue to ease they have no choice. is that a valid bet, or should people just go buy bonds? thierry: that is a valid bet. in fact, the fed is unlikely to go out and buy the junk bonds of companies and sectors that are not viable. if you are talking about airlines and restaurants, i would avoid them. for of just about everything else, i believe the fed does have your back, yes. jonathan: treasury yields raking down by about three basis points. all this talk of fiscal stimulus, and we can't get above 70 on a sustainable basis. , -63 basisermany points is your 10 year in germany right now. government bonds still looking for. tom: stan fischer over at black walk -- over at blackrock would say you take five basis points and divide by that statistic. it is a huge percentage move we are seeing in europe. thierry wizman, that really speaks to the markets speaking. are the markets telling th

lisa: thank you. look at those markets. jonathan: what about them? lisa: they are up. jonathan: i'm dying. [laughter] tom keene and lisa abramowicz. jonathan ferro. washington looks beautiful. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. boris johnson is warning the u.k. to get ready for a no deal brexit. the british prime minister says he is walking away from the trade talks with the european union. pm johnson: as far as i can see, they have abandoned the idea of a free-trade deal. they don't seem to be any progress coming from brussels. what we are saying to them is only come here, come to us. if there is some fun mental change of approach. otherwise we are more than happy to talk about -- come to us if there is some fundamental change of approach. otherwise we are more than happy to talk about strategies for what i am talking about. ritika: president trump and joe biden were on tv last night at the same time, but on different channels. they held competing televised town halls instead of debating as the schedule originally called for. th

lisa, his tone just changes when he starts talking about this. lisa:? my understand. but there's a lot -- yes, i understand. but there's a lot going on in the u.s., too. tom: the jets are 0-9. lisa: let's go to london. jon, keep talking. [laughter] jonathan: how are the mets doing? lisa: you brought it up. you wanted to talk about it. jonathan: liz ann sonders coming up from charles schwab. this is bloomberg. ♪ kailey: with the first word news, i'm kailey leinz. president trump is battling democrats and republicans over a stimulus package. he is telling senate republicans to "go big or go home," but mitch mcconnell is only promising a vote on a paycheck protection plan for small businesses. house speaker nancy pelosi says the white house plan comes up short. she is demanding significant changes. supreme court nominee amy coney barrett avoided any slips in the first day of questioning on capitol hill. democrats asked her about abortion rights, elections, and guns. still, they made local progress -- made little progress derailing the nomination. there is pressure on o

too much time with lisa. lisa: hey, i'm not gloomy. tom: you nailed it. [laughter] lisa: happy tuesday. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ -- kailey: with the first word news, and kailey leinz. the president said he feels so contractinger covid-19, he wants to go into the crowd and kiss everybody. supreme court nominee amy coney barrett faces questioning on her second day of hearings. one will be vice presidential candidate senator kamala harris. hasson & johnson temporarily halted its coronavirus vaccine study. trial because a clinical patient developed an unexplained illness. the astrazeneca study remains halted in the u.s.. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. leinz.ley this is bloomberg. ♪ >> this is another side effect of these low interest rates. it is really supporting m&a activity, supporting further concentration, including in the financial sector. chathan: former fdic's there.ila bair from new york and london, good morning to you all. alongsi

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. with economic data, here is lisa. lisa: housing starts coming in a little bit below estimates, 1.40 5 million housing starts. momentum pulling a little bit, for tickly as we see the wildfire. building permits -- particularly as we see the wildfire. building permits coming in ahead of expectations. aped highlights the k-shpae recovery. people who have the ability to buy a home are doing so. even as we see evictions and rent delays picking up in other regions. piloting the dissidents of this economic recovery. jonathan: what we call? the hamptons manchester -- the hamptons and pastors bread. lisa: greenwich manhattan. jonathan: headlines coming from the president of the united states. he wants a bigger stimulus bill than the democrats. he goes on to say he expects leader mcconnell to be on board if there is a relief deal. the problem is we have not heard that from leader mcconnell. tom: it is fascinating. i think there is a headline from the president on speaker senate majority leader mcconnell i should say. i am search

lisa: fear. used especially by president donald trump making alarmist, extreme claims. >> it's tremendous violence. no city, town, or suburb will be safe. if you want to save democracy from the mob then you must vote. ,lisa: but the president is not alone. >> remember seeing those neo nazis and klansmen and white supremacists coming out of the fields with lighted torches? veins bulging? lisa: there is near pervasive talk of threats to your community, your race, to you. what does all this use of fear do, what does it mean to voters? we asked on social media and the -- thoands of people responded. they surprised us with the intensity of their fears related to the election. >> i'm concerned that my neighborhood would be targeted or my town would be targeted. >> i'm a breast cancer survivor. so preexisting condition coverage is a huge deal for me. >> no matter who wins between, whoever gets the nomination, the other side is going to be mad. and, you know, it's expressed that anger in very violent way

lisa: in the meantime, steve ricchiuto was just on. he said of congress were to pass a $2 trillion physical support plan, he expects the federal reserve to buy up all of that in order to help things along. do you think that is an advisable step? ms. yellen: the federal reserve's asset purchases, they have not made clear their plans going forward. i am expecting them to offer more guidance. their objective is going to be to try to keep both long and short interest rates at low levels to support an economic recovery. ever,not their objective, to directly try to help the federal government finances budget deficit, and that would be a very dangerous kind of support. --o expect asset purchases they have worked, holding down long-term rates, and i expect there to be ongoing purchases. to they not geared federal deficit. tom: we are rebuilding our institutions out of this natural disaster. i want to go back to james tobin a few years ago. he introduced a measure of our welfare system. simply thinking about the welfare state within a capitalis

lisa: emily in paris? tom: it is killer. lisa: i will read the report. i want to understand the move behind the bond yield. that is an interesting move given the fact the fed is still buying bonds, still expecting muted growth, there is still uncertainty around the election. tom: i go back to your muted growth. the huge mistreat with all of the other distractions is where is the aggregate demand. brainerd touched on this in important comments earlier this week which is where is the economy? we will dive into that in a very exciting next week. of course the following week, the first tuesday of november with our special coverage. i am not sure kevin cirilli comes home from nashville. maybe they just plant him there for the next 11 days. will speakjon ferro to our national economic council director, mr. kudlow. good morning on bloomberg radio, on bloomberg television. ♪ so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable interne

wouldn't you love that, lisa? tom: dorsey like? lisa: i'm sorry, a beard would not make him calmer. he would braid it. there would be bowties in the beard. you know that there would be. tom: i would be has gray as letterman, and that's bad. lisa: it would be lovely. jonathan: big sent to -- big thanks to mike collins of pgim. let's get to the price action of the moment. this market is turning a little bit here. this dax rolling over, negative about 0.3% in frankfurt, germany right now. if you pull up the foreign exchange on your terminal, wcrs gives you a quick snapshot. bottom of the pile is the norwegian krone, down 4.14%. top of the pile is the japanese yen. we are starting to capture the risk aversion. kathy jones this morning, the market is a better indicator of risk appetite, and that risk appetite is starting to turn. lisa: this was the most fascinating aspect of yesterday. the treasuries were not a hedge to the equity volatility. the dollar was, despite all of these people coming out throughout all of this year and saying the dollar has lost its preeminence as the domin

or as lisa would say, let me tell you something. [laughter] lisa: all right, jon. jonathan: futures up 15. this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. stop stop on the week. the s&p 500 up nicely -- stocks up on the week. the s&p up nicely. euro-dollar 1.1798. a firmer euro in the mix. around, dollar all through g10 and against china as well. the chinese currency doing nicely and the chinese authorities tolerated it. that is the headlight overnight for the chinese currency. well,otice the vix as 25.8. the beginning of the week, maybe a week ago, 29. we have come in three or four big figures. you get the vix down, it is a different world. jonathan: implied volatility was elevated to year end on the back of this contested election fear, and a lot of these concerns have faded, relatively speaking. tom: an eventful friday to say the least. what we do on friday on radio and on television is get ready for the weekend reading and get ready for the next week. stephen stanley is an expert. won everyt -- he has trophy. what i

lisa: some guy. jonathan: alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. kathy jones coming up. she promised us she would play the piano. she promised us. ♪ >> does at the bottom are having a very hard time. >> we are having this income cliff at a time when consumers are supposed to go out and spend. >> the market is not as well-prepared as it normally is for these kind of downside events. >> this is a market thinking at some point, stimulus is going to happen. >> the fed has a lot of upside to accelerate. i think they are going to maintain this pace. >> we need support for the economy both from monetary and fiscal policy. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. good morning, everyone. on

lisa, get it back on the rails. lisa: i want to let this keep going. jonathan: ireland -- tom: island is to the west. irish holiday. lisa: i am looking forward to the fed speak, particularly on regulatory issues and asset prices. the question is how much will the asset prices go up. see? i can bore everybody. [laughter] jonathan: operation get me to the 9:00 alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. tom: fed headline just out. we will have it for you in a bit. jonathan: awesome. this is bloomberg. kailey: with the first word news, i'm kailey leinz. president trump is battling democrats and republicans every stimulus package. he is telling senate republicans to go big or go home when it comes to a proposal. mitch mcconnell is only promising to vote on a paycheck replacement plan for small businesses. meanwhile nancy pelosi says the white house plan comes up short. she is demanding significant changes. anyconey barrett avoided major slips in a day of questioning on capitol hill. senate democrats asked her about abortion rights, health care law, guns, and

lisa: we could try. jonathan: here's what we look like on my heels coming down a basis point. 118, we have replaced this weakness with dollar strength in much of g10. johnhe news overnight, ratcliffe saying that iran and russia are meddling in the united states election. here's the u.s. director of national intelligence. that some confirmed voter registration information has been obtained by iran, and separately by russia. this data could be used by foreign actors to attempt to communicate false information to register voters. jonathan: john ratcliffe on attempts on iran and russia entertained -- interfering in the election. not a surprise to many that this is happening. clear, he supposedly got up front of news organizations that were going to break this news in some manner. there is some certain national security secrecy here. what i would note within the zeitgeist this morning is the idea that the president is upset that his attorney general and fbi director -- i'm not sure how that plays into tonight

lisa abramowicz is already drinking this morning. [laughter] lisa: cheers. jonathan: how may times have we heard this? lisa: how do you trade this? is completely exhausting, whether you are talking about brexit, the stimulus talks in washington. how do you know how seriously to take any of this? it is exhausting. happy friday, and cheers. [laughter] jonathan: thank you, lisa. happy friday to you, too. i will get straight to the price action. equity markets as follows. up five this morning on the s&p 500, a little more than 0.1%. euro-dollar, $1.1723. 0.7257% on the, u.s. ten-year. tom: the theme this week has been the disinflation in europe. the suppressed yields in europe really have my attention across the weekend and into monday morning. futures up five right now. kevin cirilli with us. we are going to drive the conversation forward here x number of days until the election. lot about the a president from their curtains. the president's curtains in the oval office, sort of like a casino, mar-a-lago kind of thing. are the bidens measuring the curtains right

lisa: that is where i wanted to go. if we condemn out how long households have to maintain spending or reduce it a little forto edify these forecasts a blockbuster holiday season, how long do we have before we hit the wall where we need more support are we actually see the slow down 70 people have predicted would already have happened and yet has not. lindsey: if we assume the economy continues at this pace, if the consumer does have several months to eat through the accumulated wealth that should carry us well at the first quarter, even independent of a stimulus package. we also have to recognize the virus is far from contained in that remains the number one risk to the economy, or should i say the policies aimed at stemming the spread of the virus remain the number one risk. if we do see resurgence toward the end of the year leading to further restrictions and further lockdowns resulting in further business closures, job losses, lost income, revenue, opportunities, wheeze could see both regardless of the savings -- we

lisa: someone emailed into both of you. jonathan: he gets the complaints, lisa. don't worry. about 10 of them a day. lisa: they asked me to ask you something. why soccerball has gotten so critical? beathan: i think they might being sarcastic come up with the results over the weekend. yeah, it's pretty wild. tom: can you guess plane -- can you ask blaine aston villa beating liverpool -- can you explain aston villa beating liverpool? jonathan: i thought we would go there, so deep breath. aston villa. tom: i thought it was bob villa, like the homemaker. jonathan: we've got the name right. what is the question? tom: how can they beat someone as dominant as liverpool? how does that happen? jonathan: they fell apart. everything went wrong for liverpool. just a real psychological element to all of that. i thought it was absolutely dominant. and you know what i really loved? villa was so much better than liverpool that everyone forgot what was done just a few hours before. we don't have to talk about it. coming up, david riley, bluebay asset management sheets invest in strategist. th

lisa, help me. [laughter] lisa: anytime. talk about this pessimism baked into the market. yet we see all of the economic data showing the steepest recession possibly in history. the nasdaq is up 28% year to date. i am looking at the s&p up more than 8%. where is that pessimism you're talking about? ben: you had $80 billion come out of equity mutual funds since the bottoms. you look at the american association of individual investors, 40% our bearish six months into the rally. famouslook at the robinhood trading volume chart, and that is basically the lowest it has been since march. i look at the vix. six months into this rally it is still above average, and futures are going higher, not lower. i can go on and on. there's very few indicators that actually tell me people are positive. we have a composite investor sentiment indicator which is nearly at contrarian levels at this point, and that is given a 12 month return. that is part of the story as we rolled through the election. investors are going to be forced to allocate on the basis of a 14 month view into 2021 of signif

lisa: we talked about policy. the lack perhaps of fiscal support, what monetary policy is , but it is really the virus very much in the focus right now as it spreads. can you model economically the ramifications of allowing the virus to get worse just as flu season starts to pick up? are you starting to measure for that were tracked at all? tom p: as i glossed over just a moment ago, our view has been that the virus would sort of be even more resurgent in cold and flu season, thus really suppressing economic activity. there it interesting that has been a lot of adjusting of economic forecasts because of the lack of stimulus. i don't know that that was really going to make a difference one way or another. i think if the virus does become more resurgent than what we have window,r the june, july if it becomes broader than that, which is what we have baked into our numbers, that i don't to get matters how much stimulus you put in place today. q4 is almost certainly going to be a pretty soft quarter. what i would say i

lisa: how much of a drag? but it is hard to quantify, the cbo puts out calculations based on current baselines. they say that fiscal stimulus goes from adding 13 points to the annualized growth rate in the third quarter to subtracting seven points in the fourth and six points in the first. those estimates come with wide uncertainty bands, but i think the direction is pretty intuitive, just when you look at the flow of cash outlays from the treasury. they surged, and now they are coming back down again. lisa: how do you trade this, given the degree of uncertainty and the wide range of outcomes? i guess my- jim: focus is more the pure macro. i think in general, the backdrop here is such that the fed is going to have to be highly accommodative for many years. you trade the ups and downs in bond yields, certainly. the news flow can go up and down. i think people will be disappointed by the report tomorrow, but the broad thrust is that interest rates are going to be low for many years. exactly what that means for t

[laughter] lisa: nailed it. tom: thanks, lisa. lisa: anytime. tom: what would u.s. bonds be doing today? it is a mystery. jonathan: it is a mystery. i am sending himan ib right now. tom: i'm sure you are. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, equity futures with a list. the bond market, the treasury market is closed in the united states for columbus day. $1.18 handle on euro-dollar. come across the atlantic, discovered america. jonathan: did he? what year was that, tom? tom: i don't know. tom, you should teach history classes remotely for schools. wonderful. from london and new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ karina: with the first word gh: with thelei first word news, i'm kailey leinz. the president told fox that republicans are having a hard time with pelosi. meanwhile, pelosi called the administration's offer grossly insignificant. even if there is an agreement, it is not certain if since republicans what -- if senate republicans would approve the measure. minneapolis fed president neel kashkari

are we going to see much more of that, lisa? guidance from corporations that didn't end is a another wave of this? lisa: i think that is a really important question. if it is just plugging an economic hole and not actually acting to stimulate the recovery, that is a big difference, and it has a longer deleterious effect on the economy if it is just debt to bailout an economy hampered by the pandemic. i'm not hearing a lot of projections about that going forward, and that is a big issue. jonathan: should we do the good news this morning? that's the second reference to the fact that i was here a lot earlier this morning than i , for the european market open show on bloomberg. that's because mr. miller sent me a quick text last week and coming, so i need you to cover my show. now isave matthew miller a father. tom: and the guy has absolutely theed it because he's got candor from drug -- the kinder kindergeldand the going. you always name the child after the richest grandmother. [laughter] he's over there in the amand of immediate t

lisa: that's the research, check it out. for those on radio, it's him at pancake pantry, pancakes, syrup and butter. jon: kevin looks very serious about pancakes, seriously. he looks really, really serious bout those pancakes. bank on -- bacon with them? no parlor pancakes without bacon, i'm told. tom: two long necks to chase it down. jon: why talk about the eating habits of my compatriots in america ever again. oh, no. tom: that's called having a full nashville. jonathan: from new york and london for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance lot on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz a mime jonathan ferro. --, and i amdata jonathan ferro. the economic data moments away. michael mckee drops by to bring his initial jobless claims. michael: we are just getting the numbers in. 787,000, major drop from last week, which was 898,000. never the big surprise last week when claims went up so much? we get the opposite this time. the previous week's level byised down to 56,000 -- 56,000 to 842,0

lisa: morning therapy. tom: the red sox were so bad like flatwon, i felt earth society and we really didn't land on the moon. it was that much trauma of my youth. lisa: what is happening? jonathan: we can keep this going. tom: jon ferro with another hour jon at 10:00 a.m. jonathan: no one wants to see that. coming up, a conversation you don't want to miss, henrietta treyz of veda partners, director of economic policy. a really important conversation up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ready to. president trump -- i'm rick agrippa. president -- i'm ritika gupta. president trump appears resigned to getting a stimulus bill after the election. the white house blames house speaker nancy pelosi for the delay. pelosi put the blame on santa republican leader mitch mcconnell. mcconnell is reluctant to embrace a larger scale really felt. president trump -- larger scale relief bill. bloomberg has learned the president may issue an executive order requiring an analysis of fracking. fra

lisa? lisa: meanwhile we are looking forward to next week. u.s. bank earnings taking off on tuesday. j.p. morgan and citi coming out with earnings. morgan stanley's betsy gray sick looked and the best are -- can you give us a little color around your calls and why you see these firms extending the best chance to outperform? betsy: appreciate it. the key reason is you have with citi and ally stocks that are extremely cheap. there valuation at half book for city and 70% of book for ally relative to the outlook we have for not only earnings this quarter but over a year or does give years sets us up for an opportunity to outperform the group. for the quarter specifically, you have the capital markets that are strong, and with ally we think they are one of the only banks that will be increasing net margins. you have extremely robust ipo market, extremely strong debt issuance, and tightening spreads. it is a set up for the quarter in capital markets is very positive. guy: do you think that continues? the credit origination market looks like it has had a

lisa: nailing it. jonathan: thank you, lisa. we will find out later today whether the president will be discharged. tom: can we all agree that it is the thingy on the finger and the oxygen measurement, that is the key determinant, isn't it? jonathan: i think as amateurs we should not way and. i can tell you what -- weigh in. i can tell you what you should do, bring in the next guest. tom: we have a senior economist who went right to the unemployment report, a good report, a mixed report. and the markets are reacting to it. you went to immediate duration, which shows two americas. theuss what you saw in median duration statistic. >> the median duration is basically how many weeks people have been unemployed. so, one of the things that we have been following is people who say they are on temporary layoffs versus permanent layoffs. s a issue is those -- it' distinction without a difference when the number of weeks people are unemployed keeps extending. right now, the median duration is going out to 17.6 weeks. that's the longest si

lisa: a really bold call right now. question on me to a what using monetary policy will end should be. will the fed be willing to and buyts balance sheet more treasuries to suppress bond yields going forward, even if inflation increases, leading to further negative real yield? do you think that that is an acceptable proposal for a good kind of stimulus going forward to help the economic recovery? chris: i suspect what we will have is the fed, it depends on the shape of the growth, and that in part depends on house vaccine comes in the shape of the pandemic. expecty scenario that we strong economic growth and a bit of a boom feel to it. the fed will start to back away from its stimulus, maybe 12, 18, 24 months down the road, but doing that rather than engaging in yield curve control. they won't feel the need to do that, and they won't want to stoke up with more liquidity. but if the penned continues, then sure, there's ever reason you will get yield curve control. tom: one final question, which alludes to the 1960's infl

lisa, the humanity of the bond market. the losses taken. lisa: oh, the humanity of a 30-year yield. it is the highest since june. it is starting the day down. there.ne full treatment what are we going to do their? 1.6% 30 having your yield? -- 30-year yield? lisa: you call this a bear market? julie coronado. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ jonathan: from new york and london, good morning. this is the count out to the open. the countdown starts right now. 30 minutes away from the opening bell with equity futures up six point. we begin with a big issue. the market considering a democratic sweep. >> biden opening up a lead. >> a joe biden win. >> the possibility of a biden victory. >> biden leads considerably in the polls right now. >> if you have a clear winner on election day. >> is a close election. >> we take a lot of risk out of the treasury market. >> the market is thinking about some of the consequences of a democratic administration. >> fiscal stimulus. >> infrastructure-related stimulus. >> it is considered to be positive for these areas of the economy. jonathan: 28 days

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. hourews flow in the last absolutely incredible. the price action looks like this. equity futures at session highs this morning, up 0.6%. just 50% of the picture, that's what this is. stimulus talks starting to be productive. this from the president of the united states. might lead you to believe it is just about airlines. he says that is being discussed, but a bigger relief deal is as well. i am keen to point out and emphasize this is 50% of the picture because it is only one half of the deal. we have to see what speaker pelosi has to say about this as well. arguably it is only 1/3 of the deal because we have to hear from senate majority leader mitch mcconnell as well. equity futures getting a list off the back. tom: s&p futures up 19 as we speak. , 27.71.came in abruptly right now we will rip up the script and rip it up again with rick davis, formerly the campaign manager manager for senator mccain of arizona and a bloomberg contributor. what is the debate commission like? how do the

lisa: it is incredible. we will see if we see overall massive turn or whether everyone is just mailing it in because they don't want to get sick going to the polls. one thing i find interesting about this election, what joe biden's platform ip. it doesn't seem like anyone is gaming out a second term of president trump. you wonder how much of a surprise could come if he is up in the polls, if he is up in the election results in the immediate aftermath. that could be a massive disruption to market. jonathan: tom keene has given it plenty of thought because tom keene does not believe in these polls, as he has told us repeatedly. no.e a poll, tom says tom: i talked to the pros, and they are coming in just like they expected. lisa: i will tell you this. there was a story in "the wall street journal" about how even the people for trump in 2016 are not saying that they think he is going to win. even if people say we don't believe the polls, they are still pricing in that joe biden will win. so honestly, that is the

lisa: all right. in that case, are there other asset classes you foresee moving to a sort of auction format in our digital era that perhaps haven't been thought of in that way? robert: a good one to think about is something like electricity because we have all for solareeds now powered energy from solar power and from wind, and it is quite variable. we need to create new kinds of markets for those kinds of variable resources to keep the supply provided to beat the demand. that is a new and different kind of application. tom: i want to take you beyond the theory of syndicates and what seems like ancient auction theory to what we are dealing with every day, which is our new digital dominance, the options that take part obviously on ebay, but far more, the options and the information flow led by apple, google, and the rest. what would you presume to be the future for how we bid each day within technology? robert: i think if you take those kinds of auctions as examples, what you see is they are mostly aut

tom: lisa, save me. help me. lisa: from agreeing? yeah. jonathan: alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom: this is not healthy. jonathan: coming up, jeanne zaino, iona college professor and bloomberg contributor. i imagine we will disagree with each other and about 18 minute'' time, right here on bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president trump stunned campaign advisors and allies in congress by halting talks on a new stimulus package. that could settle him with the blame for more layoffs and market losses in the weeks before the election. trump supporters had been blaming house speaker nancy pelosi for asking too much in negotiations. president trump is getting restless and wants to return to the oval office. bloomberg has learned some of his aides don't want him to lease the -- him to leave the white house residence, where he has been in isolation since monday. his doctors say he reported no symptoms of coronavirus his first night back. hurricane delta has slammed into mexico, not fa

lisa argen. it's going to be a concerning next few days here. >> yeah, definitely, liz. we're welcoming the fog this morning, and it's going to be with us at the coast throughout the day. even through the overnight hours and then an abrupt change tomorrow, as we get into a very, very dry air mass, the driest we have seen, with the strongest winds we've seen all year. and they are going to be on par with what we saw in 2017, up in the north bay, as well as 2019, so we really want you to have a plan out there, and stay tuned to the forecast as we look at san jose right now, it is sunny out there, just a little bit of haze, going to be a nice day today, though, enjoy it with temperatures right now on the cool side, 55 san francisco, 56 in mountain view, and good morning to you, half moon bay, in the mid-50s, here's a look at that fox from mt. tam. can't see it now, but we are looking at this fog pulling back to the coast throughout the day today but we won't lose it all together and that's the good

of the year so far, as lisa just mentioned. starting tomorrow night the entire bay area will be under the red flag warning and because of the dangerous conditions pg&e says nearly half a million customers will likely lose power in planned fire safety shutoffs tomorrow. >>> now, nearly a third of those, about 144,000 homes and businesses in eight bay area counties could be impacted, only san francisco will not see outages. >>> and the city of berkeley is out with a stark warning showing just how serious this situation is. in a tweet the city is urging anyone who lives in the berkeley hills to consider leaving before sunday afternoon. at least make sure you have your go bag ready. at least 1,500 berkeley homeowners around claremont and panoramic hill could lose power in the planned shutoff. >>> in east bay the outage will affect 64,000 customers, in alameda and contra costa countys. starting at 4:00 p.m. tomorrow, lights will go out from el cerrito to union city and fremont and across 680 to include dublin, pleasanton and livermo

thank you, lisa. >>> now to some developing news as you wake up with us this morning in san jose. police are investigating a double shooting. two men are dead. happened around 11:40 last night on south capital avenue. three other people were shot but are expected to be okay. it's unclear what led up to the shooting. of course we'll bring you any updates as soon as we get them this morning. >>> and in san francisco, two people are dead and multiple others injured after two shootings. police say the first shooting happened just before 8:00 last night in the bay view on hunters point boulevard. officers found a man around 45 to 50 years old suffering from a gunshot wound. he died at the hospital. then around 8:30 police say another shooting happened on sherwin street. the 33-year-old man died at the scene. three others transported to the hospital with non-life threatening injuries. >>> we have some new developments this morning, a pair of teens admitted to starting this fast-moving brush fire in south sa

lisa: people are bullish. about the rising virus count, we have a bridge to the other side come up with the other side is getting further away. how much bigger does that bridge have to get, how much longer? if it doesn't, what happens to all of these companies having directed back there profit forecast? tom:tom: this is totally idiot -- tom: this is totally idiosyncratic and fits along with our morning drinking game. this is with turkey and erdogan. turkish president erdogan urges boycott of french goods. it is as simple as that. lira blows out, eight point 08. this is an unraveling. is this completely idiosyncratic, where does turkey roll into other challenges with europe as a nato member? jonathan: of course, france recalling its ambassador to ankara over the weekend. this has been boiling up for quite a while with the tension between armenia and elsewhere. in the fx market this morning, i would say it is not just idiosyncratic turkey. i would say you've got a much stronger dollar. the problem turkey has got

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. a simulcast on bloomberg radio, bloomberg television. we welcome all of you in europe and the challenges there, and we will get to you in a moment, and all of you across this nation. it has been week after week at an 800,000 level, even up towards one million a month ago, and the news slow is simply extraordinary. jon, you have been way out front on the distinction between the virus and pandemic on the continent of europe over to the united kingdom, and the difference with the united states. how urgent is it for mr. macron, chancellor merkel, and prime minister johnson? jonathan: becoming more difficult, and the problem they are having is localizing the effort. many people in parts of the country that are facing tougher restrictions are asking, what about everyone else? that is the story in the u.k. as london gets upgraded to a new tier and faces tougher restrictions. as we get deeper into the winter, it is not just about the caseload. i think they are much more keen to emphasize and

hocum, lisa. >> thank you. >> let's just jump right in and ask you, what is gbs? >> jv as, we believe in the power of work to transform lives. we are a nonprofit, non- sectarian were first organization that serves the whole bay area community. our mission is to create access to opportunity for those that have left behind. >> it has a beautiful vision statement. i want to give a couple of examples about how does that actually find it to the ground? >> of course. we work closely with employers in sectors that are showing very strong growth, particularly sectors that have a large percentage of what we call jobs one of the things that has happened since the great recession has been a hollowing out of the metal of the labor market. what that means is that the growth that has been happening has been happening in the highest-paid, highest skilled jobs. unfortunately, also in the lowest skilled, lowest paid jobs with a shrinking pool in the middle. onve deecoti eloyer sectors that doill ofmiddle sche j anbuil out career pathways, training programs in partnership with thos

we were just talking earlier, lisa, of the high fire danger expiring. so some good news to start our saturday here. >> yes, that's right. we have that red flag warning for the upper elevations through 8:00. it's still breezy there. we'll show you that in a moment but we don't have any fog to help us out today for the temperatures. quick glass across the country and it's feeling like fall. see the white here. that is snow in the northern plains and also just north of chicago. and temperatures are going to be mild there. and you would expect that. but for the bay area, we definitely would expect, of course, the warm weather in october. and it continues, the camera is shaking a bit. the winds are beginning to dial back but they're still breezy, above a thousand feet. 65 downtown. mild night in san francisco. already 67 on the peninsula with 53 in gilroy. beautiful view from the golden gate bridge where air quality is pretty good but it's hazy in spots. 48 santa rosa. 59 in novato. and 50s in concord. 24-hour temperature check, it's a lot cooler out there,

>> lisa, thank you, the bay area on high alert all weekend. firefighters are putting their best teams and tactics in place to get ready for those gusting winds and low humidity. in the north bay we toured one cal fire air base, their crews say their air tankers are ready, stocked up with 1,200 pounds of fire retardant. a tanker is loaded with 3,000 gallons of water standing by ready to go. with all the heavy artillery, one homeowner is worried for the worst. >> it seems like we're the only community in napa that hasn't burned and that makes me very nervous. there's a lot of -- there is a lot of fuel in our neighborhood. once a fire comes through here there's nothing stopping it. >> again, pg&e is warning a public safety power shutoff is likely, even as early as tomorrow morning, for 143,000 customers in the bay area. and you can check to see if your neighborhood will be affected and ways to prepare right on the front page of our website. it's at abc7news.com. >>> all right, getting to the latest in the pandemic, health experts are warning we'r

good morning, lisa. >> good morning to you, liz. we're seeing some subtle changes that will bring in some cooling across the bay area. it's clear, though, so the fog is not with us this morning. it will be with us later on this afternoon. there's a roof camera from the city. 60 degrees. 59 in oakland. it is 55 in mountain view and gilroy and a look at sfo, we'll have lots of sunshine today, and numbers this morning are chilly in santa rosa, 49 for you. it is 52 in novato with upper 50s for our friends in concord and a live look outside here from our exploratorium camera. notice with the clear sky, we will have pretty good air quality from the coast to the central bay, south central bay but it will be moderate from the north bay and our inland east bay and santa clara. hazy at times. you'll probably notice that but overall a lot of sunshine dominating the sky today but notice, the temperatures will be cooler, we're in the 80s by noontime, but that's just inland. 70s around the bay. staying in the 60s at the coast, and looking at that

brent: lisa louis with the latest tonight from paris. lisa, thank you. here's a look now at some of the other stories making headlines around the world. a warning that germany's economy is likely to be hit harder by the coronavirus pandemic than previously thought. forecasts now are that the economy will shrink by 5.4% in 2020. in a landmark ruling, a greek court has handed long prison sentences to the leaders of neo-nazi groups golden dawn. the group's leader and several other members were sentenced for running a criminal gang. the former political party has been linked to a number of violent hate crimes. heavy rain and flooding has killed at least 15 people in southern india. these images are from where police say 25 centimeters of rain fell in one day. authorities have been using baots to evacuate people from low-lying parts of the city. in thailand, thousands of pro-democracy demonstrators have set up camp outside the prime minister's office, as protests escalate. they are calling for reform of the constitution, and more controversially, of the monar