nbc news marist poll from iowa/new hampshire. who better to do it than lee merrihof. the man that is going to help us with our state primary polls coming forward. we have two more coming next week. let's start with, lee, what struck you the most, on one hand, you look at the horse race numbers. they weren't surprising. romney had big in new hampshire. a muddled field in iowa. the difference is in the electors in new hampshire. flush it out. >> night and day. >> you are talking about in iowa, a far more conservative electorate. 82% in iowa tell us they are a conservative, an evangelical christian or tea party supporting. 17% say they are all three. the number is 59% in new hampshire. only 7% tell us they are all three. for a lot of reasons, not the least of which, i was far more conservative. it is a very different race in iowa. no clear front-runner. even though people in new hampshire aren't sold on romney, he doesn't have a clear challenger. it is a very, very different tale of two states at the moment. >> you were talking abou

guest: this is the establishment, the real poll of new hampshire done by the university of new hampshire, the most credible that we have got. we partner with the television station here. no real risk but -- surprise about who is in first place, a release sizable leadn this state. he has never been second place since we have done this poll. he got 37% support britain next place is a surprise, herman cain, who has 12%. herman cain has obviously been rising nationally in the poll. but in new hampshire, he is only been here once, shaking hands, and that how can it rises in the polls. so we're scratching our heads as to how he is in second pce. but good for him. third is ron paul. ron paul with 9%, who has always had a strong contention here. -- contingent here. he has been second place in recent polls but is there. jon huntsman, rudy giuliani, who was getting so smoke signals in new hampshire that he was running for president even a couple of weeks ago, and it is more difficult for him to jump in now. the takeaways from this poll is, number one, romney is dominant. buwe always knew that. and

polling in new hampshire. how will you make this happen? >> our numbers in new hampshire have moved up from zero. i came in as a margin of error candidate. we have done 80 individual events in this state. we will do 80 more. and i can't call myself the margin of error candidate anymore. in a recent poll, we are at 10%. all the recent polls have had us moving up. that's the kind of movement i like, but what the people here in new hampshire want is a serious conversation about a candidate's vision for america. the specifics. what are you going to do, then are you going to stay behind so we can ask you 100 questions so we can get to know your heart and soul as a candidate. that's what makes new hampshire such a special place in our election process. that's why so many people are rightly outraged about the politics that are playing out in nevada. as they try to leapfrog new hampshire in the schedule, thereby lessening the impact that this great state has towards enhancing the understanding that our citizens have a

the new hampshire folks called themselves team new hampshire. the staffers wrote quote, the manner in which some in the national campaign conducted themselves towards team new hampshire was rude, unprofessional, dishonest, and but more concerning was how dismissive some were toward many new hampshire citizens. these are neighbors and friends and they were treated as a nuisance rather than potential supporters. even after that press release, the national campaign still refused to admit that its new hampshire staffers had quit. saying this afternoon quote, the unauthorized news release was sent by a person who doesn't even work for the campaign and has never had the authority to speak on behalf of the campaign. we are not responding to comments made by a person who was not even a staff member in new hampshire. so they are dismissing the allegation that they are being dismissive. you need permission to quit the michele bachmann campaign. if you don't get it, you're not allowed. we put in a call today to woman on the press release. she ran for gover

and iowa jumped in for new hampshire so new hampshire sat on their hands. >> we didn't coordinate well enough, it sounds like. why don't you think you didn't get a call back from the secretary of state of nevada some of? >> i'm not sure. i know our governor spoke with him. he did not give our governor a specific date. >> why is it important for new hampshire to have that attention of the candidates for a particular time frame? why is that so important to a state? >> well, you want them to come and participate, campaign. fund-raising only lasts for so long. you want to make sure that your state is a focus. we were prommed to be one of the four card out states this go around and i'm going to stick to it. >> any disservice you think you are doing to the voteres and your state because of some looking across the country, why can't they play nice together? you have at least five candidates saying they're they'll boycott your state. isn't that a detriment? >> it's a detriment to those candidates for boycotting the state. i think it would be very important for them to come. we are more than ha

i love new hampshire. i love everything about new hampshire. you know what, new hampshire, you and i are now in a fight. because new hampshire, you are ruining christmas for everyone this year. today the secretary of state of the great state of hn hn new hampshire announced the granite state will likely hold its first of the nation presidential primary on either december 6th or december 13th. what? yeah. new hampshire usually holds its primary in january or even february. they may be pushing it up to december this time around. and if this happens, you know what that means? because new hampshire isn't actually the first presidential contest in the country, remember, you know what this means? new hampshire is just the first primary. there is something that comes before new hampshire. you know what this means? this means iowa will be even earlier. by arcane political rules we treat like gospel. iowa caucuses have to be held at least eight days prior to any other caught or primary. do the math there. if new hampshire really does move up to december

in new hampshire? >>guest: 50/50 chance. i'm not a good one to predict those things but it looks like it is getting closer and closer to having a december primary. it seems to be early. >>neil: aside that santa is opiated, congressman, do you think voters in new hampshire be upset this process is getting earlier and earlier and now is risking raining on the holiday parade? >>guest: well, but, i have not been thinking about this until i heard you announce, maybe that will be helpful because i think some my supporters will town out any day of the week or any day of the month so it could be a boost to my campaign. >>neil: i pray santa is not hearing you, but in all seriousness you will be participating in the nevada debate tonight and huntsman is not saying new hampshire has been granted first, and that is not sacred but should be honored. what do you say? >>guest: i think they should each make their own decision. never should make their decision. and new hampshire should make their decision. it is a states right through and pe

people in new hampshire take this very seriously. on behalf of the rest of the nation, i want to thank you for taking this as seriously as you do. this is your time. let me introduce myself, again, my name is michelle bachmann. i am running to be the next president of the united states in 2012. [applause] i believe that with everything that is within me that 2012 is our last chance. i believe that we can get it set on the right course, but it is going to be a very difficult proposition to do. it could be done, but i am not here to sugar coat, it is going to be very difficult to do. we can do it. we are americans. we are in the live free or die state. we do know how to make tough decisions and it can be done. it is your day and it is your time. i want to give you as much time as we can for all of your questions. i want to open up with a few remarks. what i want to say is the matter what course of action we take going forward, the first place we have to begin is in cutting spending at the federal level. you need to consider -- [applaus

and michele bachmann's new hampshire crisis. what it does to her campaign strategy and the 2012 race. ht these were electric? uh, it is, yeah, it's a chevy volt. so what are you doing at a gas station? well it still takes gas to go farther. but you're not getting gas. true. not this time. uh, don't have to gas up very often. so you have to go to the bathroom? no. yes you do. thought these were electric? yes, it's a uh, a chevy volt. so what are you doing at a gas station? delivering mail, medicine and packages. yet they're closing thousands of offices, slashing service, and want to lay off over 100,000 workers. the postal service is recording financial losses, but not for reasons you might think. the problem ? a burden no other agency or company bears. a 2006 law that drains 5 billion a year from post-office revenue while the postal service is forced to overpay billions more into federal accounts. congress created this problem, and congress can fix it. hey, it's sandra -- from accounting. peter. i can see that you're busy... but

the new hampshire folks called themselves team new hampshire. the staffers wrote quote, the manner in which some in the national campaign conducted themselves towards team new hampshire was rude, unprofessional, dishonest, and at times cruel. but more concerning was how dismissive some were toward many new hampshire citizens. these are neighbors and friends and they were treated as a nuisance rather than potential supporters. even after that press release, the national campaign still refused to admit that its new hampshire staffers had quit. saying this afternoon quote, the unauthorized news release was sent by a person who doesn't even work for the campaign and has never had the authority to speak on behalf of the campaign. we are not responding to comments made by a person who was not even a staff member in new hampshire. so they are dismissing the allegation that they are being dismissive. you need permission to quit the michele bachmann campaign. if you don't get it, you're not allowed. we put in a call today to woman on the press release. s

i love new hampshire. i love everything about new hampshire. you know what, new hampshire, you and i are now in a fight. because new hampshire, you are ruining christmas for everyone this year. today the secretary of state of the great state of hn new hampse announced the granite state will likely hold its first of the nation presidential primary on either december 6th or december 13th. what? yeah. new hampshire usually holds its primary in january or even february. they may be pushing it up to december this time around. and if this happens, you know what that means? because new hampshire isn't actually the first presidential contest in the country, remember, you know what this means? new hampshire is just the first primary. there is something that comes before new hampshire. you know what this means? this means iowa will be even earlier. by arcane political rules we treat like gospel. iowa caucuses have to be held at least eight days prior to any other caught or primary. do the math there. if new hampshire really does move up to december 6th,

new hampshire. let's get right to the daily fix. chuck todd, host of the daily run-down down, and chris is managing editor from post politics.com. thanks to you both. chuck, you have the nbc polls in new hampshire and iowa, talking about a big shift where mitt romney is way out in front. herman cain is second, ron paul third, rick perry, a poor fourth, jon huntsman falling behind. and some warning signs for all of the candidates. what is your look at the internal? >> i think when you look and realize the conservative part of the republican party, you can measure it a bunch of ways. in iowa, for instance, half the caucus goers we surveyed identified with the tea party. that was herman cain advantage there. he leads among tea party supporters in iowa. and he does better, he's closer to romney in new hampshire among tea party supporters. the new hampshire republican electorate, though, is more moderate, less conservative than the iowa electorate. that would be the big warning sign for mitt romney as he

[applause] but in new hampshire, we have the big but in new hampshire, we have the biggest ax. >> tom, thank you, and i know how to use it, sir. i want to say how great it is to be back in new hampshire. thank you. i'm proud to sign the thompson presidential pledge. it provides the kind of conservative reform that we need in this country. it's that reduction in taxes, it's that spending and the size of government that we're seeing growing on an almost exponential basis. it's the commitment to secure our border. it is the commitment to make america energy independent in eight years, and my solemn commitment to uphold and protect this constitution of the united states. tom, i want to thank you. i want to thank you as the author of this pledge, and on behalf of all the conservatives across this country, and for people who believe in those conservative principles, and i want to say it's a great honor to you with you, jim, and a marine of some renown, and thank you for your service to this country, and you and other men and women who are defending our freedoms today. the greatest privilege

i love new hampshire. i love everything about new hampshire. you know what, new hampshire, you and i are now in a fight. because new hampshire, you are ruining christmas for everyone this year. today the secretary of state of the great state of new hampshire announced the granite state will likely hold its first of the nation presidential primary on either december 6th or december 13th. what? yeah. new hampshire usually holds its primary in january or even february. they may be pushing it up to december this time around. and if this happens, you know what that means? because new hampshire isn't actually the first presidential contest in the country, remember, you know what this means? new hampshire is just the first primary. there is something that comes before new hampshire. you know what this means? this means iowa will be even earlier. by arcane political rules we treat like gospel. iowa caucuses have to be held at least eight days prior to any other caught or primary. do the math there. if new hampshire really does move up to december 6th,

comeback in new hampshire than the cardinals had last night. he's got to hope on bracketing new hampshire with iowa and south carolina, and i think that the other question is, in iowa, is a candidate who's going to be in the finals going to win that caucus or is it going to be an unconventional candidate, somebody like mike huckabee in the past or other people who are long shots who broke through, somebody who's going to falter. herman cain, if he's able to win in iowa, nobody's quite sure he's going to have staying power in the race because of the nature of his campaign and the fact he doesn't have much organization, but can rick perry win in iowa, can mitt romney get a knock-out, that's going to be the key dynamic there. >> one of the things rick perry has had to deal with in new hampshire, a former supporter of his has switched, apparently, to mitt romney. apparently, at least reportedly in reaction to the birthers stuff. >> well, again, this is why i say rick perry is not an ideal new hampshire candidate, the live free or day state, i think

the new hampshire folks called themselves team new hampshire and the bachmann staffers said, the manner in which some in the national team conducted themselves against new hampshire was rude, dishonest and at times cruel. but more concerning was how abrasive and how unconcerned therm and they were treated more as a nuisance than potential supports. the bachmann national campaign still refused to admit that its new hampshire staffers had quit. saying this this afternoon, the unauthorized news release was sent by someone who has never worked for the campaign and has never had the authority to speak on the campaign. we are not responding to comments by a americstaff membe was not even in new hampshire. they're dismissing the allegation they're dismissive and you need permission to quit the bachmann campaign. if you don't get it, you're not allowed. we put in a call to the woman listed on the bachmann press release, she ran for governor of new hampshire last year. she said she was happy to be the point for the staff that all quit in new hampshire and finds id odd that the national campaign

all of his political fortune is being staked on new hampshire. we saw that his campaign -- national headquarters, based in orlando, packed up, shuttered and moved everything up to new hampshire. if jon huntsman has any chance of winning the republican presidential nomination, he has to win new hampshire. >> pretty much. that's so true, so true. fred, it is not just huntsman. there are five republican presidential candidates that will skip the caucuses here in nevada if the day is not moved to accommodate new hampshire. the three that will par take are romney, perry and cain, the three that have the best chance of winning here. >> two days away, some of the candidates might be putting kind of their, i guess finishing touches on what their presentations will be, what their mind set will be as they get ready and get as coached as they possibly can. what might be the focus of this debate. we know the economy was hit very hard there in nevada with real estate, foreclosures, et cetera. what is it that you think the candidates really want to press on. >

it's always been a position between iowa and new hampshire. under state law, new hampshire, under their own state law comes first. >> i'm talking about florida and nevada and all of the states fighting now. >> there's always a battle. in fact, last year, florida and michigan were discounted from primary process and lost delegates when they tried to jump the calendar. there's always a process. let's understand the tradition. the enormous economy, the economic boost this means to new hampshire and iowa. iowa being the first caucus and new hampshire the first primary. let freedom ring. >> let me ask you about herman cain. he was on our show yesterday and he's got a lot of momentum. the man of the moment, if not more, a big surge. haylee barbour saying that he can "sweep the south." do you think herman cain can go the distance? >> i think it is certainly possible. you look at this year and people are hungry for fresh ideas that are not of washington. people are tired of slick, packaged presidents and herman cain like it or not has come in and with

so stay tuned to new hampshire. the viability of new hampshire as the first primary state in america must remain a tradition. this is good for the people of new hampshire, good for candidates, a transparent process, but most importantly, piers, it's good for the american people. it is likely to be the most important election cycle of my entire lifetime. >> very briefly, jon huntsman, your father, also jon huntsman sr., he used to work with mitt romney, had some pretty scathing words about him in "the new york times." he said if you need to win that badly, i guess you just kind of do what you have to do to get a vote. what's your reaction to your father's pretty strident comment there's? >> well, i love the man. he's a man of great insight. i've rarely know him to be off the mark. on this issue he's probably dead on the mark as well. >> well, it will be fascinating to see what happens. jon huntsman, thank you very much indeed. >> piers, thanks for having me. >> you can see the cnn republican debate and on wednesday w

rules new hampshire comes up with. there are a lot worse places you could be campaigning than new hampshire. new hampshirites are fighting. they hate overspending. that is my message. they want someone genuine. they want a real thing. i spent five years in every single battle on the front line fighting it, fighting dodd- frank, fighting against the trillion dollar stimulus, fighting against all the overspending and the bailout superior -- and the bailouts. this is not just talk. i have five years of action laying myself down on fight after a fight so you can know when i go to the white house you will have someone who is absolutely going to do these tough things. do you know how tough it is going to be to cut 40% out of the budget? you know how tough it is to shut down departments like the department of education or the epa. [applause] it is going to take some doing, but i have to say i do not a thing we benefited from the federal department of education. i do not think the epa has been benefiting our job creators. the

and sharing our vision with the people of new hampshire and answering questions that people of new hampshire have about where this country needs to go. >> all right. live now to las vegas and our senior political editor mark preston. mark, jon huntsman is now the only candidate threatening to stay away from nevada. who else? >> reporter: welm, you're absolutely right, fred. there are four other candidates saying they will boycott the caucuses. we should be clear, this is a political calculation on his part. he had no chance of winning the nevada caucuses. he's going to put all his chips on the line and try to do that in new hampshire. he's trying to woo the voters in new hampshire. herman cain, newt gingrich, michele bauchmann, and rick santorum. four candidates who all have said they will boycott the nevada caucuses because the nevada caucuses are up against when new hampshire wants to hold their primary contest. in addition to that, though, fred. >> i'm sorry. go ahead. >> reporter: in addition to that, though, the question is, what is the nevada republican party doing out here? and i'll t

we actually were up in new hampshire with him. he was up there campaigning and believe it or not submitting the papers so that president obama can run in the new hampshire primary. they were due this past week, so we went up there and followed him around. he's so totally in his element when he's out talking to people. he is a very gregarious, fun-loving guy who really seems to enjoy being out there on the campaign trail. so we wanted to talk a little politics, a little policy. he's always a great interviewer. >> did i hear that right, he went up there to drop off some paperwork for the president? >> that's right. it was symbolic, but indeed he did, and said at the time, well, gee, i got it wrong the first two times because joe biden has run twice for president so he filed the papers for the president so the president can run in the new hampshire primary. >> that's a good vice president. they have all kinds of duties. they're supposed to serve at the pleasure of the president. the president hands you papers and go drop this off, th

he's going to win new hampshire. karen, meantime, isn't really putting boots on the ground in iowa, he hasn't been doing a lot. can cain win this nomination contest if he doesn't win in iowa, and can romney win if he doesn't win in new hampshire? >> well, romney can't win if he can't win in new hampshire, i don't know about cain. cain needs to actually have a campaign in iowa and new hampshire. i mean, running a book tour is not running a campaign, and he's got to get out there with voters. more importantly, though, understand what's going on here which is what we have done is florida, which was orchestrated by romney and perry to push the process unnecessarily as early as it is, is now producing a situation where new hampshire -- stupidly -- may move to december. the point being that they wanted to front load the process, megyn, so they could shut it down quickly before voters could see anyone. megyn: right. >> romney, by the way, is playing a dicey game. this nevada, he's the one that pushed nevada up. people in ne

. >>> we begin tonight in the great state of new hampshire. where from the looks of things herman cain is going to have to do more than make a video of his chief of staff on his smoke break saying herman cain is awesome. mitt romney is up by 27 points in new hampshire. herman cain is in second place but way down there. down in the teens. along with ron paul, ron paul at 12% in new hampshire. which is pretty okay for ron paul. it's pretty good for a guy who nobody really thinks has a shot at winning the nomination, but who's mostly in the race to stir stuff up and get people interested in whether or not the wizard of oz really might have been an allegory for the gold standa standard. four years ago it seemed like if ron paul ran again in 2012 he might be toing wdoing way bettew hampshire than he actually turned out to be doing. the reason it seemed a while ago like ron paul might have a real shot in new hampshire is because of the now sort of forgotten plan to move all of the nation's libertarians to new hampshire. do you remember that plan? th

it's always been a position between iowa and new hampshire. under state law, new hampshire, under their own state law comes first. >> i'm talking about florida and nevada and all of the states fighting now. >> there's always a battle. in fact, last year, florida and michigan were discounted from primary process and lost delegates when they tried to jump the calendar. there's always a process. let's understand the tradition. the enormous economy, the economic boost this means to new hampshire and iowa. iowa being the first caucus and new hampshire the first primary. let freedom ring. >> let me ask you about herman cain. he was on our show yesterday and he's got a lot of momentum. the man of the moment, if not more, a big surge. haylee barbour saying that he can "sweep the south." do you think herman cain can go the distance? >> i think it is certainly possible. you look at this year and people are hungry for fresh ideas that are not of washington. people are tired of slick, packaged presidents and herman cain like it or not has come in and with

what does that do in new hampshire? >> new hampshire doesn't pay much attention to iowa. but tell give them a bump in the national media and allow them to survive a second or third place finish in new hampshire and go on to south carolina and nevada and other states. i mean we saw this with huckabee, who broke through in iowa, didn't do so well in new hampshire. but it allowed him the time to do things like run well in georgia and missouri and so forth. >> to the extent you can generalize, dpow well in iowa, you can expect to do better in south carolina than in new hampshire? >> that's my general reaction. i think new hampshire doesn't pay much attention. south carolina pays attention to new hampshire. we say that south carolina and we think typical republican party in the south. however, it's very diverse. you have a lot of retirees in the coast and the lower part of the state from the midwest and the northeast and have a slightly more moderate flavor and emphasize economic and national defense issues over social issues. and in the up country, have you a party more likel

. >>> we begin tonight in the great state of new hampshire. where from the looks of things herman cain is going to have to do more than make a video of his chief of staff on his smoke break saying herman cain is awesome. mitt romney is up by 27 points in new hampshire. herman cain is in second place but way down there. down in the teens. along with ron paul, ron paul at 12% in new hampshire. which is pretty okay for ron paul. it's pretty good for a guy who nobody really thinks has a shot at winning the nomination, but who's mostly in the race to stir stuff up and get people interested in whether or not the wizard of oz really might have been an allegory for the gold standa standard. four years ago it seemed like if ron paul ran again in 2012 he might be toing wdoing way bettew hampshire than he actually turned out to be doing. the reason it seemed a while ago like ron paul might have a real shot in new hampshire is because of the now sort of forgotten plan to move all of the nation's libertarians to new hahithere. the three state project. they

it's a tradition in new hampshire. we like to keep our traditions. >> reporter: basically, you can see people in new hampshire are very unhappy with the prospect of a december primary. of course, i spoke to secretary of state bill gardner last night who says he's in close touch with nevada, south carolina and iowa, and there's an important meeting on saturday in nevada which they may push their date later. we have to wait and see what happens. >> we do. we know the rnc is stepping in trying to convince nevada to do that as well. jo, thanks very much. >>> president obama took plenty of heat when he decided to commit some parts of the u.s. military to fight in libya. now that the mission of removing gadhafi from power is over, has the president been vindicated? joined by frank glavine, joins me now. president's foreign policy, should he feel vindicated today? >> he deserves a victory lap, in my view. he certainly deserves the applause for mission accomplished. good news for him. unfortunately, there's a half life for thi

in new hampshire there's not... there is a social conservative element but it's a very small element. then you have thisriving of independent voters that can come in the primary which i think will come in very strong because there's no democratic primary. they can totally upset the apple cart. >> rose: and democrats can register. so you can get democrats voting. >> rose: and that's really when we've seen the big surprises in new hampshire is when there have been primaries going in eac party because until election day you don't know which primary they're going to land in. d if you talk to david plouffe barack obama's campaign manager, he believes it was obama's strong performance in iowa that made the independents in new hampshire say hey, that's over with, let's play in the republican primary where it's interesting. >> rose: i want to ask julianna, what did you most want to ask that you didn't have an opportunity either because of format or because of time, because of everything else. >> i really actually wanted to

>> only the party. >> you got to preserve iowa and new hampshire at that time. when to the candidates leave new hampshire, it is no longer retail, all wholesale. the land of the tarmac, interviewed by the local anchor -- tell me, what brings you to charlotte todayv, charlotteacuous questions and they do silly shows -- vacuous questions. >> don't knock vacuous questions. in an abbreviated schedule, who benefits the most? >> romney benefits because it best organized. >> the republican establishment likes to run anymore. maybe they are letting it happen because it favors him. >> interesting conspiracy theory. >> all right. >> being on the receiving end of some harsh stuff because of this. >> the immigration debate. >> to me it says that our government promotes racism. their reaction to alabama ras lanuf anti-immigration law that went into effect -- police have broad powers and they can't stop and detain anyone they suspect is here illegally, attract people in school. the justice department is suing a roseanna -- arizona and alabama on this issue which is becoming a