let's welcome in steve liesman. all right, steve, you have been speaking with the movers and shakers out there so far. handicap the odds -- >> reporter: brian, brian? >> what? i didn't ask the question. >> reporter: just the movers and not the shakers. >> more shaking and movers. >> movers and then the shakers go. >> handicap the odds of hearing from just the movers apparently about the chances of ben bernanke saying qe3, dog gone it. >> reporter: well, we talked to dennis lock hart this morning, definitely a mover. unclear if he's a shaker. right in the center there. i think he said it was a very close call. but he did go on to say that there is some good. he feels the federal reserve could do for the economy. let's take a listen. >> rates could be lower and mortgage rates, for example, could edge down enough to qualify some more borrowers. some more homeowners. i don't think the level of interest rates is the problem. that's what i hear when i talk to business people all the time. but i do think further stimulus i

steve liesman joins us with another special guest. steve? >> hey, becky, thanks very much. viewers. you the your seat belts on. we're going around the world in about four minutes or so. we got the first deputy managing director of the international monetary fund, david lipton with us. thanks for joining us. >> nice to be here. we meet in all the nicest places. >> we do. let's start off with an overview of the economy. how weak? what are the challenges? >> well this recovery continues to be a rocky one, maybe not as rocky as those mountains behind us, but you know, i think we believe that with two provisss, the u.s. manages not to go over the fiscal cliff, to use the mountain analogy but also if europe is able to plug ahead with dealing with its problems, we see growth continuing, albeit it somewhat slower than historical growth than the advanced economies and quite comfortable growth in the emerging markets but of course the big risks are the fiscal cliff and europe dealing with its problems, and in particular, both of those could cause problems for the united states, europe, and sp

steve liesman is there. you've been demoted again, back down to just an economics reporter, not our chief economist, steve. >> i'm happy with that position, joe. >> it's a senior position. >> people can think what they want. it's a senior position, and i actually do fill both junior economics roles as well at the station but i have a guest here, a guy who is very, very senior, jacob fraen kphrenkel, chairman jpmorgan international. thank you for joining us. >> thank you. >> and university of chicago professor. lot of the central bankers in office today were your students. that's good? >> excellent people. >> let's talk about one particular central banker, who is not here, mario draghi, president of the european central bank. why, in your opinion, didn't he come? >> well, as he said, his hands are full. >> right. >> and you know the real question is from a central banker's perspective, what is the upside of him coming here a few days before he needs to make decisions, a few days before the german court needs

we'll start with the minutes and bringing ceo economics reporter steve liesman in a moment but this is a chance of the dow traded since the last time the fed release minutes july 11th. up at the best part. the s&p up 5%. the stock moves mean the fed less likely to embark on qe3 and the nasdaq up about 5.5% since we had last minutes of the fed. one thing is for sure, few people get as excited about this as steve liesman, senior economics reporter and will join us later in the program, sue, to discuss exactly where we are as now count down 59 minutes until we get that release. >> indeed, simon. thank you very much. as a matter of fact, right here, flew in from the >>> now the corporate users. the stock is surging today up more than 7%. of course, it is a lousy performer since it came to the market. >> indeed. thank you. existing home sales numbers in this morning and those numbers showed that americans bought more homes in july. sales of previously occupied homes rose 2.3% from the month before and the analysts say it's another bit of evidence the market is picking up but slowly. the con

talk again soon. >> see you guys tomorrow. >> steve liesman up in boston. tech stocks meantime helping lead the market higher today. market alert desk with brian shactman for more details there. >> goldman sachs upgrading the semiconductor sector to attractive from neutral and the basic premise is supply and inventories are at healthy levels. the weakness in the stocks are priced in. valuations now are reasonable. these are the four top picks. we have lsi and freescale upgraded to buy and alter ra and nxpi are their top picks. but they don't like everyone in this space. take a look at the names they are not as high on. tried and true ones being intel, and you have amd as well. and atml. three names up today but not at the top of their list. >> steve weiss i don't see any mention of qualcomm there. >> they'd like to actually, different analyst policy. qualcomm's been doing exceptionally well in the apple updraft. you take a look at the others and the announcements have come out and everybody's cut back in capacity. these are ultimately commodity companies. w

he is an fmoc voter will speak with steve liesman on "squawk box" at 8:30 a.m. eastern. no big surprises from usa's central bank. the rba kept its main cash rate unchanged for the second straight month. investors say the bank has no your again need to ease australia's recent upbeat economic data. the aussie rose to a fresh four month high. they are trading at 1.06. and joining us now is managing director and head of investment strategy asia, hsbc private bank. do you still think the rba is staying ahead of the curve by staying on hold? >> well, definitely ahead of the curve. in fact, they ad mamitted as mu in the statement that came out which basically said that the economy was showing some signs of revival, particularly the domestic sector, business lending was up as well as in the housing sector. you saw some firming in house prices, et cetera. that was the excuse for them not to cut more aggressively. having said that i think going into the fourth quarter the year they've given themselves enough space to cut perhaps once more if the global economy were to weaken signi

. >> i'm going to ask you the same thing i asked steve liesman earlier today on "street signs." the data seems to have been pretty good late by. not great, but not awful at all. the fact we're talking about qe-3 at all confuses me just a bit. is maybe there a little more concern about europe and possibly even china rather than the domestic u.s. than the fed is letting on? the data itself would seem to suggest we don't need another round of easing right now. >> i don't think the data has been that great, frankly. you know, we had 1.7% growth in the second quarter. the latest estimates i'm seeing for the third quarter are a little north of 2%. i mean, is that now what we consider to be a robust economic recovery? that's why i don't think a lot has really changed from their perspective. payrolls are a little bit stronger, but the unemployment rate hasn't gone anywhere this year. the durable goods numbers out just recently suggested that business investments are going to be coming down later in the year. the beige book report that just came out showed a lot of pockets of weakness. t

steve liesman here. today was a perfect example, too. one good number, one eh number. >> we had the weak gdp report. let's take a welcome at the data brian was mentioning of today. adp, pretty good piece of data if it does hold up in the report on friday. construction spending in line with expectations and enough to raise the prior calculation of second quarter gdp up to an astonishing 1.7%. the ism was the big disappointment. manufacturing sector of the economy struggling. vehicle sales in line with expectations according to phil lebeau. 14 million. look at what i think is a key of fed chairman bernanke to act. that's the unemployment rate, 8.2%. he suggested unless we see improvement in the labor market, this was at the hearing last week, we are going to have to move. and then finally, take a look at the gdp report and really key. all the yellow lines are the only lines, only quarters we have had where gdp is strong enough since the recovery began to reduce unemployment. not much. right? finally, let me remind you of the fed survey. 78

we'll get the numbers in a moment but steve liesman looking ahead counting down to the fed's decision and stick their landing today. >> looking ahead to phil's report and know what he's got. that's an important element. i had it on my list. i don't want to steal phil's thunder. we got a last batch of data ahead of this. unfortunately, it was mixed. let's look at the data from the morning. adp, 163. over the expectation that was out there. maybe 60 over. and then stuck to their june report of 170 so that's over what the bls quoted back then. construction spending right in line with expectations. but more than the government originally estimated. what does that mean? second quarter probably revised up by .2. ism, the big downer of the day. 49.8. less than expectations. below 50. want to show you more of what's in bernanke's cheat sheet for the day here. consumer confidence, last week -- the other day was better. gdp weak but in line. home prices strengthening. you can see it's all over the map, tyler. there's no clear direction from the data. bottom line may be the economy is weaker tha

cnbc's steve liesman joins us to discuss all of these stories. stephanie, how are you trading it? the fed is not coming to the rescue, neither is the ecb. >> for now. but i would say that expectations are very high. markets have rallied 2.5% since draghi spoke last week. we didn't get nearly the level of detail we wanted. but i think we got a couple of nuggets that you can point to in terms of the short end, in terms of the size, they note that size matters, i think that we've been picking at symptoms that have gotten hit today. again we're kind of doing the diversified approach. we're buying a little of bristol-myers, because it's getting hammered, but we're buying ge and devon as well. >> steve, what happened? >> all coy think about was maxwell smart who said this place is surrounded by 100 crack alpine troops. and then he said, two st. bernards in heat. it was the expectation of a huge reaction and then at the end of the day, not very much. if you look at what's bothering the market, i'm calling it the draghi on the market today. what it is, it's the maze, it's the maze in the

we heard steve liesman, had two great interviews. he said the cost benefit analysis for the moment more qe doesn't add up. mr. lockhart said to him ate close call. so here we go. in the next meeting andrew when push comes to shove because of the things you talked about do we get more qe or not? >> absolutely. i think bernanke is the guy who puts the motion on the table and other people come around. don't forget the process is. nonvoting member. the minutes made it clear. more people see on the committee the need for further support for the u.s. economy. the real bottom line here is the level of unemployment. rate of unemployment is not coming down fast enough. the u.s. economy is not growing quickly enough on account of the legacy of the financial crisis to create sufficient employment gains going forward on a two year horizon unemployment will still be way too high. >> okay. we'll come back to that. andrew good to have you on. also still to come an awkward moment for republicans in tampa as a selected endorsement for the romney camp

steve liesman with the thoughts of jackson hole. find out what the bond traders think of the bernanke comments. joining us is holly liss. good to see you again. >> thank you. >> what is your reaction of mr. bernanke and where are yields going from this particular point? >> i think the immediate reaction was there was a little bit of disappointment he didn't come right out and say the enactment of qe3 but the comments say they didn't take it off the board either and they have potential to reduce the interest rate of reserves on banks and extend how low to keep rates for an extended period of time. looking at fed funds, they're pricing it in to the second quarter of 2015. so i think that was what he wanted to accomplish and i think he did a good job at that. we're certainly seeing treasury rates fall lower as a result of that. i think that's probably going to continue. i don't see any impetus for them to go higher at this point. the economic data is mixed and weak. certainly, everything next week we're all looking for is the adp and n

steve liesman, cnbc senior economics reporter joins us with a preview. the most recent gdp at 1.5 and adp, better than expected, just wondering what that does to the 23ed and also keeping in mind the ecb is tomorrow. >> that's a good point. there's a lot of mixed data that's out there. and i think there are some different -- i want to go through the odds. if we were at the horse track and handicapping. let's talk about the horse named signal action. put it off. okay? i'm saying that's like a 4-5. that's really where the street is right now. that the fed does not move at 2:15 today. the announced qe 3 today, i would say that's like what is it, bought in keeneland, arabian prince, that's a 2-1, or 3-1. there's a couple of favorites, one has been bet down. announced contingent qe, another possibility. we're going to do qe, based upon certain criteria. for example economic criteria. this is also horse running a different race here, the change forecast date for low rates to 2015. that one is something that's out there and could actually happen. i want you to

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let's get to steve liesman with some of the headlines in jackson hole. >> carl, thanks very much. fed chairman ben bernanke in his speech this morning is going to make a case for using non-traditional policies without, however, explicitly promising it. he says we should not rule out the further use of non-traditional policies. he repeats the fed will act to promote growth as needed. he goes through a cost benefit analysis of using these policies and says the costs of the policies appear to be manageable. economic headwinds, zero interest rates, the overall slow growth environment argue for keeping rates lower for longer. research, he says, shows that the programs have been effective. remember we told you that key in on how he makes the case for this and says the effect of significantly lowering yields for long-term treasuries, corporate bonds and mortgage-backed securities. research also shows the asset purchases have helped lower stock prices and the economy and fight deflation. unconventional policies, he does acknowledge, are more difficult to apply. he says significantly here

steve liesman is monitoring and will bring us anything as it comes out. if we are going to hear more at the press conference is where we would be hearing it. first off, where do we start with the jobless claims numbers? >> initial claims from 357,000 up to 365,000. so we are up 8,000. but keep in mind it would have been a smidge more because the number originally now reported 357 was 353,000. so we are up a bit. if we look at continuing claims it's a bit different dynamic moving from 3.29 to 3.27. not huge changes. it has been vacillating between 3.25 and 3.33 million. of course we are still digesting yesterday's fed statement. as i was walking in there was quite a few comments regarding what did the fed actually do. is this like the world series of federal reserve or central bank -- is somebody bluffing? i would like to talk to steve to see if mario draghi is one of the super mario brothers or not. you hearing anything, steve? >> i'm just watching mario draghi take the stage with the dep tu governor. we are waiting for comments. let me lower the volume h

steve liesman has the latest on the news conference. steve. >> melissa, thanks very much. there's some interesting contradiction in what i'm hearing draghi say. on the one hand he began strongly saying they'll do whatever it takes, the euro is irreversible, and then he starts to lay out a essentially a plan that says in the next few weeks we'll announce a plan effectively to buy bonds. he later says it will be a plan to buy bonds on the shorter end, different from the sfp. a couple questions that are unclear to me right now. one, does a country first have to ask for assistance from the european rescue fund before the ecb will act? that's a little unclear. on the one hand it seemed like they had to, on the other handle they said no, the ecb can act anyway. the other thing that's curious is he said this is strong guidance and now we have to decide which nonstandard measures we'll take. a little unclear at this moment how far advanced the planning is. one hand he's talking about being very advanced. on the other hand he's saying this is strong guidance. that needs to be resol

steve liesman joining us with eric rosengran. meantime, the slide continues. company losing around $12.5 billion after the new york state regulator accused the bank of laundering money for remark. just a string of continue vrovc. the bank continues to insist that the dollar amount not in the billions and not 60,000 transactions. >> we have yet to see what evidence they'll have. the losses, top bank regulator in the state of new york bringing these charges, if you will. based again on e-mail traffic and the thing that is we see so often. standard charter is a large back. $640 billion in assets. 1,700 branches. does a lot of business in asia and the middle east. clear a lot through new york as you also might anticipate given the size of the bank itself, so we'll see. but you're right. adding it on to the hsbc. they were just losses. nobody broke the law per se, at least we don't think so, of course jpmorgan put that out there a little bit. the libor, let's not forget that. it's just building a case of a lack of confidence. >> the decline of charter in london tra

i'm becky quick with steve liesman and gary kaminsky. jim bullard has been with us for the last hour, he'll be with us for another hour, it's a good thing because we have a lot more to get to. look at the u.s. equity futures this morning the dow futures are up anybust over 4 points, coming down by being higher by 40 points. s&p futures are barely positive and the nasdaq futures have turned slightly lower. >>> hewlett-packard reported a nearly $9 billion second quarter loss, the biggest in the company's 73-year history, the loss is mostly related to the writedown of its acquisition of eds. earnings beat forecast but revenues slid by 5%. the company is cutting its full year outlook because of the slumping pc market and continued weakness in western europe and china. earlier we spoke to brandon marshall who covers hp for isi. >> a lot of people want to see death but we see signs of life. earnings have gone down basically for the last three quarters, beat earnings expectations and we're kind of pegged to the wall at four bucks in earnings on

bob pisani has more but first to steve liesman. okay, steve. when the fed really matters. >> yeah. an interesting comment and maybe more interesting reaction. a lot of what he's been said in the letter he said in testimony. he said elsewhere. but it's a bit like that one sentence that stands alone that there's scope for further action by the federal reserve to ease financial conditions and help the recovery. he said the benefits of further action in a separate sentence is ambulanced against cost and not as definitive perhaps as the market is taking. these are all in response to a request of representative issa. bernanke adding it's not a panacea and urging lawmakers to take actions on the deficit to support the economy. he also added operation twist is working through the financial system. and then also defending the way the federal reserve makes policy as economic forecast which is another question that issa made. now the ecb also may be helping things along. more comments leaking out about how the european central bank could potentially buy bonds. a reuters story quoting a centra

. >> steve liesman has done it again, scored an exclusive with another bank president. this time, eric rosenberg in boston. steve is in boston and seems like the is all in on more fed action. >> he wants open kwquantitative easing comparable to the qe-1 and qe-2. after we got done with the live portion of the interview, i sat down and we taped a little bit more. i want to bring you this now for the first time. eric rosen gren, talking about what he would tdo to target mor qes. >> i want to focus on are the labor markets improving and nominal ge increasing, we should see it increasing not as a ceiling but a floor. we should do more to get the labor market doing. i would do those to get those kind of economic outcomes. >> you've also spoken about cutting the excess on interest rate reserves. what about money markets? >> we're paying 25 basis points at a time 20 month treasuries are trading 8 or nine basis points. we seem to be paying people too much to hold the reserve. europe reduced their deposit rate down to zero. i'm not advocating to drop it to zero right away but gr

. >> we have eric rosengren the federal reserve president of boston, steve liesman man has him in the 8:00 hour. if you can ask him one question what would you ask him what? >> if i could ask one question? i guess i would say why are you guys pushing for so much transparency when it seems to correlate with less efficacy. and so i think you're supposed -- >> when you say you don't want transparency is that what you're suggesting? >> yeah. i'm on the record. we spoke about that with you over a year ago. yeah. absolutely. transparency is a bad idea but they are forced into a public relations to do it. in fact if you read their own research on it, the efficacy of central bank policy is highlighted by surprise and so i think ate failed policy and so i would just like him to explain more why why they want to tell us what they are doing. >> i assume you have questions about what they are is going do next but that's too obvious for you >> too obvious. i think it's great they are willing to speak. usually the black out period -- as soon as it's over after meeting you're getting a very high lev

steve liesman is here. joe isn't the only one rethinking the forecast. as he points out, raising from 1.5 to 1.7 is not exactly, you know, kind of doing the happy dance here. >> no party hats in that number. i want to show you, though, the tale of the gdp tape this morning which joe was talking about it. 8:30, the trade deficit comes out and smaller than expected. substantially smaller than expected. economists, they revise up the second quarter gdp. that's substantial for reason why it's important is because all of a sudden the economy was at least going sideways on growth. not decelerating. 10:00 the wholesale trade come out. what are we doing? back down at second quarter growth. however, what i can tell you as joe pointed out, jobless claims number may be a legitimate reason for optimism. look at the chart here and see as we had that surge. everybody's like off to the races again. you can see it bumping back down. we got through the volatile period which is the auto shutdowns. everybody throws out the data that doesn't matter. last two weeks, see that

. >> steve liesman is here with us and steve, i think it's interesting that certainly the market seems to be feeling much better about draghi than they were yesterday. but there were some participants in the market yesterday who are active. >> i want to know the guy who has the model that links trading the dow and the s&p to the spanish two-year. because that's the model to follow. if you saw what happened this morning, what was it, a, i don't know if you saw it, 60-bit decline in the spanish two-year. if that's not a reconsideration. so draghi said, we're going to buy on the two-year. and by the way you had a widening on the spread in spain. have you ever pitched, why am i talking about spanish bonds? >> that's the reality of where we are. >> what i heard by the way is that traders are telling me larry fink was down on the trading floor -- >> blackrock. >> buy the weakness on the draghi comments on the market because he thinks it's a very big deal. >> so blackrock was bullish? >> while the market was selling it off as a huge disappointment. he was like no, it's a big deal many it's a

i'm scott wapner with becky quick and steve liesman this morning. let's get you set up for the trading day by taking a look at the futures, see where we're heading. it's been a few down days in a row for the dow. looks like a little pop at the open but certainly not much. going to be modest gains or losses for all three of the major averages. there's a look at the fair value board. so modest moves in either direction. the headlines this morning, the fed debate over further easing rolls on. chicago fed president charles evans telling cnbc overnight that there's, quote, a lot of reason to do more including more bond buying. yesterday in an interview, though, right here on "squawk box" st. louis fed president james bullard dampened hopes the fed would institute further easing measures any time soon. as we look ahead to the gop convention next week republicans are said to be eying a return to the gold standard. financial times says the party will call for the creation of a commission that will study that issue. the link between gold and the dollar was d

senior economic reporter steve liesman is working on that today. are the people at the fed not amused by what the new york state banking regulator is doing? >> interesting comments of regulators commenting about what he's been doing. serious allegations of money laundering, iranian funds and doctoring official banking documents overshadowed of a state regulator overstepped the bounds going public with charges. some regulators criticizing benjamin lawsky's action saying he jumped the gun and in the words of one regulator hijacked the investigation in to standard charter and how -- saying that could have an affect on the outcome of the case and the office would not respond publicly to the allegations. officials said there was an ongoing multi-year investigation to standard of several investigations and lawsky went public and took the lead with little or no notice. one official said the order threatens to pull standard's banking license as overly colorful and said the investigation turned up serious issues and more complex and specifically there's a q

we'll begin this hour with steve liesman. the key fed minute headline. >> the minutes of the august meeting, many members saying additional monetary accommodation is likely warranted unless the economy improves substantially. the fed offering something of a litmus test for why it won't be additional quantitative easing. additional members saying it could foster rapid improvement and speed up the recovery and expressing support of the forward guidance and deferring until september. looks like a thumb's up or down vote at the meeting coming up. several members with the importance of clarifying the economic outlook. more time is necessary they say to evaluate the effects of a decision in the june meeting for operation twist. some members questioning whether the qe would help the economy in the current situation. some members, again, concerned about the effects of additional qe on the market and the fed coming in and taking too much of a given security but the fed is discussing maintaining forward guidance even in a recovery. now

. >> also tweeting at invisible big ben and steve liesman's dome tweeted out why are you talking to sully? you know what i mean. we haven't heard from the harriet on the fake twitter feeds. >> wall street continues to be anti-social towards facebook which is why it is our stock number one today. >> i put this up not for the stock but for the call. bank of america, merrill lynch, cutting the price target to 23 from 35. thanks a lot. they did keep the neutral rating citing lock-up expirations and selling pressure to december and maybe december that will change a little bit. 35 to 23 when the stock's at now -- really? >> unbelievable. >> seeing five bucks upside to take something from the call. >> splunk getting a lift. >> it's a data and analytics firm that's more attention. ceo godfrey sullivan, no relation. they boosted the full-year guidance and said -- to be fair. i don't understand what they do. he said we're not taking business from anybody. we're creating a new market segment. that's what he thinks. >> that's what he thinks. >> market likes it today. >> no relation, right? >> no godf

gold down 18 bucks and our senior economics reporter steve liesman is following the comments of mr. draghi today. could one not argue he's laid out a bigger master plan taking the organizations in to slightly different territory than they were willing to go in to before? >> i think so, sue. i think that down the road this could be a positive for the moment. it's a big disappointment from the ecb. he spoke boldly last week of doing whatever it takes to save the euro. he delivered weakly today. instead of massive, it's maybes. ecb may undertake sizable purchases of short-term bonds. the mechanism developed in next several weeks. purchases tied to rescue fund conditionality. that's a key for the market and the ecb may drop demand for seniority. in addition, draghi made clear the germans don't like the idea much and unclear how much of a setback that's going to be. the bigger setback could be spain and any other country has to ask for a rescue before ecb will act. the international monetary fund did not mince words in a statement criticizing the conditionality here. i quote, further mon

steve liesman was going to be with us at that hour but he's on his way to boston right now. tomorrow steve has an exclusive interview with eric rosen w ros >> material sector leading the way today. jackie deangelis is at the real-timex change with those details. >> good afternoon, guys. pretty good day for stocks. in fac-- they are posting gains more than a percent each while it is the utilities that is the only sector in the red. still really is an ever so slight loss now. take a look at the top five best material performers today. u.s. steel, titanium metals, new mining, allegheny technology. hopefully we will get those up for you. gains in the stock from 4% to 7% each. it is counting on expansion of its asia operations and to replace a shortfall due to maturing operations elsewhere. it is targeting overall output growth of 40%. let's move on and look at the tech space. leaders there, looking at cognizant, first solar, jds, f-5 networks, sales force.com. cognizant seeing a nice pop today. reporting a higher than expected quarterly profit. first solar, second quarter profit

the global market strategist and steve liesman is here, as well. joe, let me get your reaction to it. the unemployment rate ticked up a little bit but the street better than what it expected on a week where we had mixed economic news on so many fronts. where does this put the fed? >> i think the movement in the unemployment rate certainly a step in the wrong direction but if you look at the private sector payrolls, it reinforces the fact that the labor market is healing but maybe not a fast enough pace we'd like to see. so if you think about what the fed's going to do, ultimately nothing really changed. i think expectations are still building, they're going to expand the balance sheet and the fact that the numbers were a little bit mixed looking beneath the lines and understand what's going on in the labor market, the prospects are still there. >> steve, do you agree? the guys before the show said, yeah, better than we expected but doesn't take the fed option off the table and stuck in between. >> so in math, sue, there was this idea that as the li

. >>> let's head to jackson hole, wyoming, with steve liesman. you heard the traders. what are you hearing out there? any signal if any that we're likely to get tomorrow? >> reporter: i think it's interesting listening to the traders and watching what's happened. you have this huge build-up to the speech. people expect a lot. and then all of a sudden it comes off and people think, oh well, we may be disappointed. ask bob, sue. you probably remember. it happens every year. this up and down on the bernanke speech. >> yep. >> reporter: i think it's fair to say it's somewhere in the middle. i want to give you three things i'll be watching for in the speech. the first is the emphasis of additional quantitative easing. he wrote a letter to represent darrell issa pointing out the fed has more scope to the recovery. watch for discussion of alternatives, things like the communications policy. pushing ahead the low rate forecast of 2015. even some mention. because there's going to get discussion here of that of targeting the unemployment rate. i think it's a low probability bern

. >> let's get to steve liesman standing by in beautiful jackson hole to talk about what bernanke did or didn't say. the markets are acting like they got the go signal on qe-3. >> definitely, he left his options open and promoted the idea that the fed could do more and doing more would do good for the economy. i think those are some pretty key takeaways from the speech. saying we shouldn't rule out using nontraditional policies. saying the fed will actually promote growth as needed and the cost of these policies are all manageable. he does go through a pretty exhaustive cost/benefit analysis and i think that's pretty critical. i'm not saying it's a done deal and i would not expected him to make it a done deal at this meeting. but if the committee sits down and decides it wants to do more, bernanke has laid a foundation for doing it. >> at the same time he gave us the history and defended the policies, right? do i read correctly, steve, when they did an analysis, they think they helped create 2 million jobs as a result of monetary policy? >> i've seen that result, and it's sort of mult

let's bring in steve liesman. also want your take on the big fed decision later on, but start with ism. >> thanks for that extra time. 49.8, 49.7 the prior month, is a number associated with coming out or big in a recession. i think the worst number is the new orders number, just 48. again we've been there outside of a recession, but typically it's a number -- employment calling, subindex falling to 52. there's no positive news of momentum in this number. the better number is the construction number. up 0.7. the public sector, as you might expect, unchanged with a big decline in educational spending. the jobs, the adp number better than expected. this ism number worse than expected. i'm led to believe, by the way, the fed will have the ism service numbers released to the public on friday, we'll have it today. i think jim o'sullivan described it best. the data has been weak enough to bring the fed closer to action, but perhaps not weak enough to bring the fed to actual action to date. the best expectations are for

i'm becky quick along with steve liesman and scott wapner. joe and andrew are off on vacation today. a lot of news and in our headlines, take a look at home builder toll brothers. that stock has more than doubled over the last year and adding to the gains this morning. toll reported quarterly profit of 36 cent a share, twice what wall street was expecting. it also says it's seeing the most sustained demand for its homes in over five years. the stock right now at 32.25. >>> we'll be getting our first economic report of the week this morning when national association of realtors with existing home sales for july at 10 eastern time. they are looking for an annual rate of 4.5 million. >>> and heineken is one step closer to taking over asian pacific breweries, the company that makes tiger beer. heineken has bought nearly 2.7% additional stake in the company, lifting its share to 12.2%. it's still putting together a deal to buy 40% of held by singapo singapore. >> have you tried tiger beer? >> i don't think so. >> tiger in your tank. >> i might hav

steve liesman joins us with the salacious details. i think that's fair. >> yes. the decision to move ahead with charges against standard chartere has prompted sharp comments from regeulators and politicians in britain. you can't help wondering whether all this beating up of british banks and bankers is starting to shade into protectionism and you can't help thinking it might actually be at least partly motivated by jealousy of london's financial sector, a simple desire to knock a rival centre. others saying, this is a clear political agenda to shift financial markets from london to new york. even the normally reserved governor of the bank of england, mervyn king noted that it was significantly different from other cases against british banks which are coordinated with all american agencies and even with the brits. he noted lawsky went forward alone. he called for standard to appear on august 15th to explain why its new york banking license should not be revoked. he issued a statement overnight saying this is a case about iran, money dalaundering and national secu

steve liesman is here. did the mud puppies play? >> we played twice but not last night. i got a little sleep after. >> did you confine it to a beer? >> that's all i do is one beer a set. >> i've seen you at the office parties we've thrown at the past, remember? >> one time eight years ago i had two drinks and this is the essence of your personality, joe, you never let a learn live it down. it was like two vodkas. >> after being in russia so many years in. >> thought he was still there. >> i'm immune. >> you're spilling stuff on him. they never forgot that i don't think. you were so happy when comcast bought us. >> i was so i could start anew with a new chief executive and, yeah, one time, joe n eight years. i've been here ten. let's progress because they're yelling me in the background they want to go to another conversation. is that okay? >> yes. >> okay, thank you. joe had it right, the economic data last week modestly better than expected along with statements from the fed and ecb, made the street even more confused about the outlook for policy. first none of the data

. >> don't forget about, steve liesman had plenty on this yesterday from his source at bundesbank. if you want to read that, go online, cnbc.com and read steve's analysis of the bundesbank position. it basically backs up what wideman is -- wiedemann is saying. >>> india says the country's electricity network has been restored back to full capacity after two days of massive outages. the blackout, worst recorded in the world, left over half of india's 1.2 billion people without power. we're joined from new delhi with the latest. it's extraordinary. it's like the entire population of the united states not having any electricity. who's getting the blame? who's going to fix it? >> as far as blame is concerned, at this point in time, the largest north indian state is being blamed for a large chunk of what we saw happen with north grid collapsing. what the power ministry is saying a couple of northern states overdrew more than what was allocated to them, which led to northern grid collapsing, then northeastern, and then a domino effect which left about 600 million indians without electric

steve liesman and scott wapner are here to get us through today. "squawk box" begins right now. >>> good morning. let's brin

. >> for more let's get to steve liesman and steve murio, and i knew you were going to be on because i saw it on tweeter -- twitter. you tweeted you were going to be on. you're also in the guest list. steve, what moved you about these numbers? you were excited. >> i have to say i've heard a lot of bad anecdotal data about employment, people laying people off and that kind of stuff and i'm glad to see the claims number. this is the second good, clean week we've had after the layoffs, the auto lay yourselves distorted the data the last couple weeks. i feel like if we're settled down at 360, it's not as good as we were hoping when we were trending down from 350. we were trending back up 373.80. the trade day is also good, i did a double take on it, we have 43 instead, this should flatter or help out the second quarter gdp numbers, going to be revised up about a tick. depending on the inflation number, looks like petroleum fell and non-petroleum goods also fell as well. exports rising 0.9%, imports down 1.5%. this is overall good data and i think that's going to help the rally. i've been

. >> let get to steve liesman crunching numbers over there. >> the upward revision expected to have been because of compensation and one-time bonuses, not the sort of wage level that creates inflation. it's 5.6%. what's happened is we've come back to normal after a pretty decent decline in the first quarter. and i want to show you a chart, guys, that looks at what happens to employment and productivity. and what's been happening is especially after recessions they work against each other. the question is whether or not we're in a time period with productivity having come down where we're more prime for job growth just because businesses have effectively -- there's the chart. take a look at that, andrew. what do you have see? a nice inverse relationship. it's not perfect. job growth on a year-over-year basis is higher, productivity lower, there's the spike after recession with the decline in job growth. the question is whether we've reached a point whether companies have max migimized profitability and do they have to hire people. and is labor about to get more of the share of any product

steve liesman has the numbers we've been waiting for. >> adp reporting job growth grew by 163,000. nonnarm payroll is expected to be 95,000. private sector is expected to be 100, 110,000. a couple of the keys here that we'll be asking joel about in just a second, the significant miss last month. last month they predicted 172,000 and came in at 84. >> that was seasonal? >> you know what's amazing, steve, is the market's reaction to this. it can't figure out what to do. it's ticking up, ticking down. they don't know if they want good numbers or bad numbers. >> they don't know whether they're totally wrong. >> can you put up the chart by business type. small business adding 73,000, medium business up. large business up 23,000. >> joel, let's talk about how much we ought to be thinking about. overall what i calculated in the last six months or so, you're about plus or minus 50. >> last month the adp estimate was a tad high. we'll get a few more revisions on last month's number so the gap could close. but my sense is this isn't be the first time the adp number accelerated or decelerated

our own steve liesman will give us a preview now of what exactly we can expect. hi, steve, good morning. >> good morning, simon. the market likely will be faced with a classic fed dilemma, weighing the difference between what the fed says it's going to do versus what it will actually do. we'll likely read in the minutes a lot of discussion and debate about quantitative easing. the trouble for the markets is how much that discussion will tell us about the likelihood of real policy action. deutsche bank saying its analysis today that we continue to believe policy makers will refrain from further balance sheet expansion, although a discussion of these options will likely be apparent in the meeting minutes. but deutsche bank goes on to caution the important consideration is that simply because policy makers discussed an option does not mean that action is imminent. barkley's saying the reason for caution is that the economic data right now just doesn't justify additional qe. barkley saying the committee's decision not to take further action at the august meeting was

diane swonk is here, mark zandi is here and steve liesman and former council of economic advisers chairman and economics professor austan goolsbee. austan, tell us what you're looking for. joe already alluded, wondering if you're as neglect of a as you have been. what are you looking for this time around? >> i expect only about 65,000 because of all of the stuff in europe, our growth rate is measly and with a measly growth rate there's no secret there are not going to be many jobs. i haven't seen much change in the dynamic the last three, four months. >> diane pointed she's looking for 95,000, saying there could be an upside surprise because of what happened to the autos, factories, a lot of noise with seasonality there? >> i hope so, but you know, the overall thing is if we're growing 1.5%, we're not going to have good jobs numbers. >> are you looking at 8.2%, too? >> i think it might go up to 8.3, but either stay the same or tick up a bit. >> okay, mark, how about you? >> i'm more optimistic as i have been, wrongly so, though. i think 125,000 for the month, but i will say this is, for me

. >> i think it's probably act, steve liesman did an interview in boston, suggested more liquidity than dallas or the fed of dallas, fisher and he was saying no, i think we're going to hold back and you're getting this very mixed message from various members of the fed that there seems to be more controversy within the fed, do they want to provide a whole lot more liquidity, even bernanke is suggesting a fiscal policy be addressed, not monetary policy because they've pumped a lot into the system. >> you're not going to see any fiscal policy that comes ahead of this election? >> i could have told you that four months ago when i was up on the hill visiting with people there was no likelihood whatsoever that anything would be done before the election. the election will determine most likely the policy direction the country will take, which is right. the election should be about big issues and we have some fiscal challenges that have to be addressed. >> it's the data dependency phrase and look the data has gotten better. retail sales have been okay, the weekly initial unemployment claims, t

how many times have i had big debates with the likes of steve liesman, as counter intuitive as it might be, if there's a inkling that interest rates might be drive ven, it might spark mortgage activity. as i walk around the floor today or i look at the wire services like ifr, what i'm hearing from these people is just in the couple of days there's been over 10 billion in origination, mostly in re-fi. i think wheree that mba information next wednesday or you talk to your bank, i think they're going to say you're going to have to wait a while because maybe one of the best reasons to spark activity in the mortgage market is to tell people rates actually may go up. back to you. >> rick santelli, thanks for that. let's head it over back to head yours for a market flash. >> i can't match that but i'm going to slap of a. groupon anyway. what else can you you say about the name. the stock is down again today. cutting their price target to $3 from $6.50. thanks a lot, that stock is down about 9.6% to $4.52. evercore sees it going down another $1.50. discount on groupon, the puns are over at this

i want to get to steve liesman with breaking news that is moving the markets. >> thanks very much, carl. fed chairman ben bernanke in written response to questions from representative darrell issa, saying that there is scope for further fed action by the fed to ease financial conditions. he's saying the benefits of further action must however be balanced against caution. see the market looks like it got a pop on that, looking at that now. bernanke is defending overall fed policy but saying monetary policy is not a pan see ya and calling on lawmakers and other institutions in the government to do their part to help the economy. asked by darrell issa about whether or not the effects of operation twist were still working its way through the system he says they, indeed, are and the fed must also make policy in light of economic forecasts. the fed bond buying he says helped promote a stronger recovery and the fed is akeenly attuned to the risks of inflation. it's a very long q and a, i guess darrell issa gave as many as 22 questions. i've gotten through 20 of them, carl, and if there's anyth

i want to bring in our senior economics reporter steve liesman. >> far from make anything clearer, the modestly better than expected jobs report has need street end more confused about the outlook for policy. none of last week's data changed forecast for growth june information added to may crow economic advisors a tick to the estimate for the second quarter growth. now it's roll the drums 1.6% if everything stays the same. many economists see a third quarter of around 2%. the most optimistic 2.5, pessimistic as low as 1.2%. it will take some very strong u.s. data and a large equity rally to keep ben side lined. draghi loaded his guns for an unsterilized smp. he's waiting for rajoy to enter the eu rehab clinic. jpmorgan reflecting the consensus. fed ready to begin another round of asset purchases in september. goldman sachs says our baseline forecast remains an extension of the forward funds rate guidance. they will go from late 2014 to mid-2015. in the september meeting. qe is to follow 2012 or early 2013 when twist expires. what's interesting, john riding pointed out with rates alrea

. ♪ ♪ >>> steve liesman looking at the ism report that is just crossing and looking for top line number that i will get in a second. guys if you have it in the back, give it to me. 52.6 is the number that we were looking for 52 and a touch better than expected off of the june 52.1. we look at the subcomponents and good numbers on the business active and 57.2, and the new orders up and employment down 49.3 versus 53.3 in the prior month which is interesting and we will talk about the jobs number in a second, and that is the opposite way of supply and deliveries down and inventories up and not a good sign there, and a mixed report and looking at one other thing here. exports we are up a touch and inventory sentiment was also down. so a mixed report, but at the end of the day, a touch better than expected. i think that this adds to, you know, the concept that the economy is chugging along no great shakes, but very much the story this morning with the jobs report. you know what the numbers were 163,000 on the top line and better than expected, but looking at the details, you will see why pe

steve liesman will be very happy about that. bob, thanks for joining us on the phone. bob mcteer. that's it, planet more from the republican national convention and from jackson hole, wyoming. that's it for "worldwide exchange". "squawk box" continues the action here on cnbc in just a few moments. >>> good morning. today's top stories, barclays names a new ceo to run the scandal hit british bank. the global markets are waiting on bernanke. some strategists say the fed chief's jackson hole speech can make-or-break the rally. plus a grand old party in tampa, mitt romney set to officially accept the nomination for president tonight. his running mate paul ryan making the case to standing applause last night. >> the presidency that began with such anticipation now comes to such a disappointing close. it began with a financial