them why goldman sachs shouldn't be broken up? because the same economics that impact jpmorgan impacts goldman sachs. so what is the rationale for goldman sachs, if you will, taking up a brick, when they live in a glass house? it doesn't make any sense. >> do you think goldman needs to buy an asset manager company or brokerage? do you think so? >> no, i don't think they have to. i think that goldman sachs has a wonderful model and that model is driven by investment banking, and i think that investment banking was good in 2014 and should be better in 2015, once we get through the turmoil in the market. >> dick, who are you buying right now? is there a name you recommend to our viewers at the moment? >> well, the stock they think is the one they ought to make their biggest bets on is bank of america, particularly now it's broken 200-day moving average and going to have earnings which could be unsettling and the stock has dropped so much in the last couple of days. the outlook for bank of america is better than it's been for literall

that is the genius of goldman sachs. it is heavily focused on both areas because you never know which business is going to be strong at a particular time. with oil going down the tubes in the fourth quarter without people expecting it, traders get hurt. but they are going to rebound. there is no question. you need both groups. it is a very different management problem. you have to pay people less but you cannot lop them off because you're going to need them. >> we will take a quick break here from you, bill. we have breaking news, december construction data coming out. scarlet fu has numbers. >> we got the drop for the number of december -- for the month of december. .1 of 1% following a gain of 1.3% in november, which was the biggest increase since may of 2010. there is a give back as manufacturing slows down at the end of the year. in terms of impact on financial markets, we are not seem to bank much. -- we are not seeing too much. they are slightly lower and they continue to decline, about .3 of 1%. we see low yields

goldman sachs says oil has two state lower for longer. that is the way the market will be rebalance. gas prices have fallen $.27 a gallon. the average price of a gallon of regular gas is $2.20. it has fallen below $2 a gallon in 17 states. a breakthrough in finding out what happened to the air asia plane. one of the black box recorders that may tell what happened in the final moments before the plane crashed two weeks ago. >> the black box is composed of 2 parts, a flight data recorder and the cockpit voice recorder. the one thing we managed to find is the flight data recorder. >> the wreckage is 105 feet below the service of the java sea. the crash killed 162 on board. >> the biggest crowd in modern history in france, 3.7 million people marched to mark the terror attack. french president francois hollande proclaimed paris as the capital of the world today. john kerry will fly to paris at the end of the week. that may be an answer to criticism that the u.s. only sent in ambassador to yesterday's march. the detroit auto show, gm is introdu

goldman sachs had earnings today. we're going to talk about how liz and i are going to survive davos in a second. serious stuff here. goldman sachs had lousy earnings, particularly the quality of the earnings, they made it through not trading revenues, not investment banking, they did not have a great earnings, it is renewing from what we understand the call from analysts that goldman needs to diversify and go out, buy an asset manager or buy a brokerage firm. here's the interesting thing, three days ago you had dick bove saying he doesn't think goldman sachs needs to do that. today he said yes, they need expand. liz: what changed? >> the earnings, the quality of earnings were lousy. goldman can't proprietary trade anymore. that's the bread and but the jeer which you had said. >> they need a stable form of revenue. unless they think hillary clinton is going to come in, in a couple of years, which she might or a republican president is going to reverse vast parts of dodd-frank or water down dodd-frank that allows them

>> i directly cover goldman sachs and also morgan stanley. let's talk about goldman sachs. you know they raised you know, they do raise the dividend yearly and they bought back $6 billion of stock which helps on earnings and return on equity. >> ken, i don't expect you to cover credit suisse or ubs but the tectonic plates are shifting. lost a fifth of the value in a session in a quarter, swiss franc's done what we know what it's done how does it affect wealth management industry? how far does it stretch to the names that you cover, do you think? what's the color here? >> in the case of episodic events like swiss franc, for the businesses of goldman and morgan stanley, these are very small businesses. they're larger for banks like deutsche bank and onces you've mentioned. i don't believe it's going to have either a direct financial or a confidence impact particularly on u.s. wealth management. >> finally, ken, a big discussion about legal costs and the degree to which analysts should be separating them from corporating models some say analyst whose do that should be ashamed.

that is the message here from the goldman sachs conference. let me send it back. >> jeff thank you very much. >>> coming up on worldwide exchange. u.s. earning season unofficially kicks off. who will be the winners and losers? we'll discuss after the short break. >>> welcome back. let's give you headlines. the white house calls the global security meeting in the wake of the devastating attacks in france. >>> u.s. futures indicating a high open as earning season gets underway. and cnbc learns they could be ready to announce the program based on the contributions made from national central banks. >>> yeah. we want to get you a quick check on european markets. we are very close to hitting session highs right now. european stocks picking up a bit of momentum. remember we heard from ecb governing council member who said do not underestimate the risk of deflation. that putting more focus on whether the ecb will unveil full blown quantitative easing at the january 22nd meeting. all eyes on what will be said. stocks up 600. we're up about 1% on the da

that's where that, that's where goldman goldman sachs' announcement, i think, falls flat. the other thing is this, goldman sachss does have a business model problem. they've got to do something, they know it. it's kind of -- what the jpmorgan bankers are saying, this is a diversionary move away from what they have to do, which is grow. liz: charlie, thank you very much. i'm going to supervise your parking for davos. >> really? what color underwear? liz: just stick with white or black. can you believe? we're going together. unbelievable here. 30 minutes before the closing bell. you've got to hear story, charlie. it's been dubbed the timber for elitists. it's the dating app that checks out the school you went to -- >> do you think i'll get a lot of hot chicks if i tell them i went to pace university? [laughter] liz: how about uc santa cruz? okay. this one determines whether you qualify for an actual invitation to the web site. would you join it? the ceo of the league, a harvard business school graduate herself, joining me in a fox business exclusive. actually, i think she we

news forecast from goldman sachs. it will not curtail shale drilling at least not until it falls to $40 per barrel. goldman sachs cut the forecast for the west texas intermediate rate benchmark to $39. prices fell more than 4% today. now below $47 per beryl. the biggest acquisition yet for a shyer -- for shire. this gives them treatment for rare diseases. they have been trying to boost growth since a proposed $52 billion sale collapsed last year. genetic testing partnering with the biggest drugmaker in the united states. sharing dna data at 350 thousand people with pfizer. the data will allow new targets to treat dizziness and -- diseases and design clinical trials. maybe the end of the road for peyton manning. struggling as denver loss in the nfl playoffs. manning says he is disappointed and does not yet know if he will return for an 18th season. >> he does have the papa john's pizza if it does not work out for him. cyber security will be on top of the agenda in washington this week. president obama will spend the ne

at 7:30 we're expecting quarterly numbers from goldman sachs. then from 8:30 we get the government's latest inflation numbers. we'll get the consumer price index. remember that came after the ppi yesterday that showed a much bigger decline than had been anticipated. also at 10:00 a.m. latest read on consumer sentiment. and the u.s. equity futures at this hour we've been bouncing once again this morning. an hour ago we were down about 40 point ossen the dow. right now dow indicated down about 7 points. s&p futures down by just about a point. and the nasdaq down close to 20 points. also take a look at currencies. a day after the surprise move by the swiss scrapping the floor between the swiss franc and the euro that tie that was trying to keep it. it didn't work well. this morning the euro versus the dollar 1.1586. that's something people are paying a lot of attention to.

the fourth quarter of this y >> i do agree with goldman sachs' forecast. when you look at the supply/demand dynamic, it's still heavily skewed heavily to the supply side. it doesn't look like it will change before the beginning of the summer. i would expect prices to be low going into the summer. >> while supply is key, so is demand. and neither are seen changing anytime soon. for "nightly business report," i'm jackie d'an gel lus. >>> it's earnings seasons when companies post what they made or lost last quarter, how they did it and how they look to the future. as usual tonight, alcoa kicks off the fourth quarter earning season and posted a solid beat. 33 cents a share excluding certain items easily topping the wall street forecast as you see there. revenues are nearly $6.4 billion, also beat estimates on a 14% jump in year-over-year sales. shares initially higher. after-hours trading, after issuing promising guidance and upbeat comments from alcoa's ceo. >> if you look at the ups, the revenue is up 14%. and by the way, 50% of that is driven purely by orga

as you mentioned, goldman sachs u.s. equities strategy david costen explains why he thinks there could be an equity pullback next month. >> when we look at the data that has come out, we have for the last five weeks, the long positions are at an extreme. one of the highest extremes we've seen in a long time. and therefore, that would suggest that the u.s. equity market is likely to experience a pullback some time in the next four to six weeks. and that would be pretty consistent with the magnitude of an extreme reading we see in the commodities futures trading corporation data. >> so, is mr. kostin right? let's bring in jeff hussey global chief investment officer at russell investments. jim, i'll start with you. what do you think of mr. kostin's comments? do you think indeed we see that extreme in the commodity futures and does that or tend a big pullback in equities? >> well sue, our shortest time horizon for investment is 12 months. so we don't spend a lot of time trying to make 12-week predictions. having said that we

goldman sachs think so. and >> welcome back. the market moves to talk about. the treasuries and yields dropping. you remember october 1 five. we are back down there again. there we are. that was the trade. the yields must go higher and they went lower. we have a treasury yields on the 10 year and it is 0.48%. that is a record low in germany. the continuing theme is the yields lower in germany and let's talk about the u.k.. it is set to be another big year for the economy with a general election in may. joining us now is the chief u.s. -- u.k. economist. you made my job easy by putting out a note. i will start with the first one. the recovery. >> i looked at the risk of the recovery and david cameron would have had the election last year. the question is whether we can sustain the recovery. >> there are clear risks to growth and the growth is weak. a lot of the growth has been fueled by the falls in the ratios with only so far it back to go. we are optimistic it is being driven by oil prices now down 50%. that is enough to drive the rates and all else is really

dash poured into the wounds by goldman sachs. it is one bullish forecast for oil pretty much in half as news trickled down of that bludgeoning. you could tell crude would drop. and then we got not one, not two but three punches right to the gut. three announcements that cut out the hearts of the bulls as swiftly as extracted some pour guy's heart in that moment in indiana jones. we know the consumers got spare change in their pockets. i felt so flush after spending only $1.99 on gasoline yesterday that i bought a wholeal gaen of windshield wiper fluid. you know what i didn't do? take the extra $20 once destined for the pump and splurge at tiffany's. maybe that's why tiffany's didn't make the numbers. last week we had two which gave you bummer numbers. tiffany doesn't really specialize in items below $5. and it doesn't coupon the heck out of the world. maybe it should because publicly traded store severely disappointed in the united states when same store sales falling 1%. i thought the u.s. was strong. the result a 14% stunning d

the most constructive looking chart looks like goldman sachs to me. that's the one i would buy, based specifically on technicals. >> all right. still ahead, one oil and gas play reporting earnings on thursday. could see a major move. we break down that trade. that's next. >>> oil service stocks and schlumberger in particular hit a fresh 52-week low today. some traders see even more pain to come after the company reports earnings later this week. dan made it over to the smart board. dan, what do you see? >> schlumberger, the stock reports thursday after the close. the implied move in the options market about 5.5% in either direction. but here is the thing. the stock has really only moved about 2, 2.5% on average over the last four quarters. today options volume ran really hot. about two times average volume with puts at about two times average daily volume. and when the stock was 78.53, there was a buyer of 10,000 of the january this friday expiration, 78 puts, paying 153 for 10,000. that's $1.53 million in premium. likely a 2% break even on the downsi

first, goldman sachs, $40 oil. i'm not going to belabor that point. but what's more interesting to me is that diplomatic push from opec to try to get a production cut. they were not successful. opec really digging its heels in and saying it will not cut production. remember, venezuela and iran, they've got break-even prices around $100 a barrel. these are countries that are getting very squeezed right now. stateside here, u.s. production is actually steady to increasing, despite the fact that we've been talking about rate counts decreasing stateside. and also, two significant refinery fires as well, pushing prices lower. having said that, the dollar is stronger today too. so all of these things taken into account and traders are expecting prices to continue down from here. back to you guys. >> okay. thank you very much for that, jackie deangelis. and we should note as we went into our show, we weren't at triple digit losses for the show, now we are. we also saw the dow dropping as well. the dow is current down by about 112 points. as for the s&p, we'r

i had to be reminded goldman sachs is in the dow. goldman down $2. marty mosby was talking on why the stock was down. he was mentioning that a lot of the individual metrics were low. and there were whisper numbers for revenues that the company didn't hit. i feel like we're in a macro world off of a sudden. i'm not sure what to think about. it's earnings season and important. at any moment when a swiss bank can come along or paris or something like that it's a world where it seems like there's a lot of things we can't anticipate. last year it was all about buybacks and whether or not it truly benefits investors. the trend seems to be continuing early in 2015. but this is a 30, 40 -- as long as i've been doing this there's been buybacks. our dominic chu has more. probably depends on the situation, dom. >> it absolutely depends on the situation. let's put up the numbers for you right here. people are still reporting their numbers. this is what we know through the first three quarters of last year. and that 12 months here. so if you go through september

jeff currie of goldman sachs on that bombshell oil note, adam posen will join is in the 7:00 hour. stay tuned for chris whalen on jpmorgan. from new york city this morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ >> good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." i am tom keene. olivia sterns and written in greeley. futures improves -6. they were worse an hour and a half ago. >> bloomberg's francine lacqua spoke with pershing's bill ackman, taking his victory lap it seems over to europe. he talked about anything from tesla to market volatility. francine, what is your top takeaway? >> olivia, we talked about the environment after the great 2014 he had. in 2015, will he be able to replicate these trend we saw? he says it is difficult to predict, the environment is right to do some great deals. we asked about volatility for stop some investors a it is difficult to sift through volatility. he said that is actually a bonus. >> i do think it is a favorable environment for what we do. >> despite the volatility? >> volatility is a good thing. if you are a long-term investor and you do not

we're looking at goldman sachs and jpmorgan as the worst performers. that marked the big mess because of legal expenses and sets that tone for the bank and their earnings reports. goldman sachs is another one in focus because of its volatility in trading that could result in. i also want to point out the move higher for oil -- a gain of more than two dollars a barrel to $47.93. there had been some disconnect between rising oil prices but stocks are coming off their lows, perhaps that is equalizing a little bit. >> scarlet, thank you. it's time now to -- time now for today's latin america report. result possibly to sales rose more than all economists estimated. the numbers were sparked by black friday promotions at the central bank. sales jumped .9% after a revised 1.3% increase in october. the president is struggling to revive consumer confidence after the cost of living in brazil surged last year and benchmark borrowing costs rose to the highest level since 2011. that is your latin america report for this wednesday. coming up medtronic which was found

in goldman sachs, in apple. many of these stocks, goldman and apple down worse than the market here today. why is that? because they were up big this last year. those are the stocks, the heavy cap stocks, that people are piling out of right now. is it overdone? of course it is but it happens every year. the big winners hold them too long, it rolls over into the next year, you can buy them cheaper at the end of this week. >> part of my point, people say europe is the place to be, where the real value is. >> b.s. >> oh -- >> if you believe -- >> what's your time frame, 15 minutes. >> if you believe in europe you have to believe the turnaround is going to occur in germany. that's the story. is germany going to turn around. if germany is able to turn itself around, stabilize as the united kingdom was able to stabilize what was going on last year in europe. back to the financials for is a second, when financials bottom the first place you want to look and see the turn will be in the regional banks. and potentially se

goldman sachs tomorrow i expect a big number. i put calls in there as well. >> goldman sachs has a lot of trading. >> they do. >> trading has been the problems for the banks that have reported. >> equity trading was up 25% at jpmorgan as well. so it was really the fixed income that was their one down spot along with obviously what everybody focused on which is the legal issues. >> i think the capital levels and credit metrics were a little bit on the margin disappointing in addition to fic, but fic down 20, 30% at these companies year over year. stunning. we expected declines but not to this level. i think that, you know, i think goldman is going to outperform. i think morgan stanley is going to outperform and want to be selective in banks. >> i think there's two things you should look at if you work with an ador and an ability to buy bond offerings of these financial institutions i would do it as they build cash that's a better trade than opening the equity. the consumer finance names you're long american express, private sector

christine lagarde and gary cohen of goldman sachs disagree. christine lagarde is expecting a rate hike. >> be fed is going to raise rates this year. our expectation is it is more likely to happen midyear then the end of 2015. the fact that the fed is going to do that is good news in another itself -- in and of itself. >> this has to do with central-bank divergence. we are not focusing on the fed today. it is clear from what economists are saying and a sense in the markets, the world as a whole needs easing. >> the bulk of the world does. the fed may be tightening. it highlights how different the economic experience as he and we will carry on that conversation. we will be back talking about the ecb. monetary policy is the theme in davos. ♪ >> we are in davos at the world economic forum. the big story is in frankfurt. let's bring in hans nichols. hans, give us a sense of what we are expecting from the ecb. >> i will be looking at the headline number. $1.1 trillion in sovereign debt through 2016. after that i will look at the number of dissensi

goldman sachs said it could drop to $40 a barrel. if you look at the commodities overall today and you look at the best performers and the worst performers it's all energy related oil related assets. >> absolutely yeah. when you look at the worst performers today it's everything related to oil and oil derivitives. national gas heating oil and brent crude, they actually gave up losses earlier today but then extended that two to three day slide that we've seen. there's really no bottom in sight as you mentioned, they're setting that $40 price floor. you know, it could actually spell out some real short term and even medium term worries because they cut their 12 month price target as well. >> they weren't the only ones. lot of these analysts are playing catch up to the rapid decline in prices which took them all by surprise. you're polling this into equities and how energy companies are waiting in the s&p 500 has shifted overtime. >> right. one of our producers asked us earlier, spawned this idea i guess. we had looked at energy stocks

[closing bell ringing] >> righter, we're seeing banking index and goldman sachs and. liz: we could knot rally enough to get above the flat line. looks like we'll not see a triple-digit loss for the dow. we're down 93 points. that won't make it three days in a remarks adam. an interesting move here but -- adam: but as you point out, oil companies and energy companies pulling us down. liz: s&p, nasdaq, russell, red on the screen. off their lows. let's get it started. "after the bell" begins right now. liz: break down today's action. jamie cox from harris financial will tell us why he thinks u.s. equities are overpriced, where you should put your money and he made a warning earlier today that proved correct. matt glen from royal oak financial group. with two picks to add to your portfolio he says will be winners. alan knuckman in the pits of the cme. we want to start with you, alan. looking at behavior and herky-jerky movements from the markets what is the action you glean from today's price action? >> my message i've gotten older. i have to look things like weekly basis

for jpmorgan and goldman sachs, and so you look at it what's the value of size and complexity? >> well, sinnerynergyiessynergies, but now there's a cost complexity. extra capital you need to have. that capital has a price. look at the value of the synergies versus additional capital and, you know synergies are not worth it. if they were worth it for an enterprise, the consumer business is not helped by an affiliation with trading business for example. that's applying to the large banks that have additional capital charges. >> do you think we'll see big banks? >> i say in the past there was synergies, and no real measurable cost consequence to it. now there is so i think that a lot of the basis for the decisions to aggregate have to be reevaluated in light of the discernible cost associated with being above a certain -- >> is the cost appropriate? >> i think the theme of size -- there's a number of redundancies in the structure of the regulation. for example, there's c card a capital rule, liquidity rules, all of which amp up the amount of capital. i say they are all designed as

. >>> goldman sachs kicking off our top trades tonight. beating earnings estimates. hurt by weakness and fixed income trading and 16% decline in investment banking revenue. we should have known this right from the other banks. >> not necessarily. don't lump goldman with the rest of those cats because they're better. >> weakness in trading. >> honestly they should have done a lot better than they did. that would light a candle under their collective rear ends to have a better quarter last time around. it's had a nice up trend since the middle of 2012. i think the quarter was okay. tangible book is 163. you put it at 1.5 times tangible book you have a stock by the end of the year. >> that seems like a good sign. >> i think technically out of all the financials, i like wells fargo, obviously you're going to get hit with the home builders weakness on that one but goldman sachs is the best out of everybody. >> next up, speaking earlier today on squawk box he explained why you short the big oil names. >> the fracking and shale revolution was preparing us to be the largest

-also ahead, goldman sachs president garyc cohn will join us. the term he was just talking about last week, the currency wars, you have heard so much about. >> later the backlash against president obama's proposal to tax the 529 college savings plans continues. the part of the middle class that he's calling rich are not exactly feeling wealthy. we'll give you the facts on that story coming up. >>> head to the close, we mentioned art cashin saying there was $300 million in stock to buy on the close. we're coming off the low a little bit. the dow down 6 points. the s&p up 3. the nasdaq up 10 points. joining me is mark from premiere wealth, and peter costa from empire executions is back with us again. mark obviously kind of odd time we're in this awkward period because of the weather and everything. is this a time to just stand back and let the market do what it's going to do or you want to take advantage of opportunities? >> i want to take advantage of opportunities. >> where are they? >> i'm advising to my clients to get into the market. the oppo

first, goldman sachs out with numbers today. the results topped estimates but the firm reported a 7% year to year drop in fourth quarter profit citing weak income trading the main reason for the decline there. shares off slightly today. $177.23. next pnc financial. said its profit and revenue slid. despite that quarterlies before than expected as the strengthening economy bolstered commercial lending and company set aside less money to cover losses. shares up $2 and up $84.44. up by almost 10% as revenue and net income growth set new records. the company said despite low interest rates, it was able to deliver some of the strongest results in history. shares there up slightly to $26.90. sun trust banks earnings fell because of a mortgage related legal spens. beat estimates as loans grew in the fourth quarter. shares up 4% to $38.19. >>> shares of precision cast parts slumped after it issued a weak outlook. the metals component and product maker said the third quarter results would be lower than expected expected citing falling sa

fourth quarter of the year. >> i agree with goldman sachs forecast. when you look at the supply demand it is skewed to the supply side and i don't think it will change before summer. i expect prices to be low going into the summer. >> reporter: while supply is key, so is demand and neither are seen changing anytime soon. for "nightly business report," i'm jackie deangelis. >> and john kilduff joining us now with outlook for energy and oil prices. we heard in jackie's piece you were looking at $33 a barrel. last time we saw that was the financial crisis. what's going to drive it to $33 or close to it? >> that's precisely where i get the number from. oil prices rally from that number to $100 or plus the past few years. the basic look at the chart falling down that should be the low point for it and it's just all this intense selling going on not just in crude oil but the commodity sector generally, everything from live cattle to copper to coal and iron but that should be the landing point for crude. that's what gets some of the technical buyers back in

goldman sachs expects it to trade at $40 a barrel in the next four months of this year. this comes as they proposal to open up southern and lastic coast to offshore oil drilling. from virginia to georgia and the president would prevent exploration off the coast of alaska. one political analyst said of the president's plan, he giveth, and he take away. but it drew criticism from environmentalenvironmental criticism. now, the president's plan covers oil and gas leases from 2017 to to 2022. earlier i told you goldman sachs does not see oil prices moving much in the first half of the year. but what about beyond that? that's the first question i posed when i caught up with at the world economic forum in davso, switzerland. here's what they told me. >> my expectation is second half of 2015 we'll see the start of an awkward pressure on the crisis for two reasons. one, 2015, the investment in oil production may be cut globally, but by 15%. >> by virtue of these lower prices. >> exactly. this may be in north america in the high-cost areas. this would have an indication on the pro

goldman sachs cut its oil price rejection. the firm's energy analysts slashing their -- down from 73 to 75 -- when you cover all of the oil price cut forecasts, it must be incredible how the numbers go from 73 to 47. >> absolutely, but look what the actual price has done. it is a little bit of the analysts paying -- playing catch-up. saying if we predict more than a 20% decline, we will look crazy. to some extent they have to, when it is as steep as this. >> the thing with goldman sachs, they say it could drop to $40 a barrel. tell us more about what the report includes. >> goldman is looking at a new break-even price at $65 as the new normal. they are saying that capital is going to be the lever that will rebound the market, so what they are saying is watch the forward curve futures, 12 to 24 months out. as long as that is below 65 that will deter the investment that gets the supply reduction the market is looking for. >> basically what opec is looking for as well. >> that's right. goldman is reiterating that they do not insp

goldman sachs, one leading the charge. broke through 190, some support. i think 184 is also a level you can see some support. late in the day, jpmorgan, who goldman sachs talked about earlier should split up or consider that idea, huge option buying the upside in there. >> unless it's unusual activity here, pete's taking a look at an apparel maker, retailer. >> guess is another name that's been slaughtered, hit to the downside, trading right on the 52 weeks or close to the 52-week lows, but today, very active buyers. january 20 calls, january 22 calls, well over the open interest, looking for that stock to maybe start bouncing and moving to the upside. >> you in this trade? >> i am. i look at the fundamentals of guess, as well. the whole story tells me this stock could start to move back up. >> fashion front, did guess jeans do anything for you? >> been wearing them since i was a kid. >> wearing them right now, in fact. >>> webmd heading to ces, where it is trying to take advantage of the rise of digital health tracking, but with the stock trading near 52

goldman sachs expects it to trade at $40 a barrel in the next four months of this year. this comes as they proposal to open up southern and lastic coast to offshore oil drilling. from virginia to georgia, and the president would prevent exploration off the coast of alaska. one political analyst said of the president's plan, he giveth, and he take away. but it drew criticism from environmental environmental criticism. now, the president's plan covers oil and gas leases from 2017 to to 2022. earlier i told you goldman sachs does not see oil prices moving much in the first half of the year. but what about beyond that? that's the first question i posed when i caught up with at the world economic forum in davso, switzerland. here's what they told me. >> my expectation is second half of 2015 we'll see the start of an awkward pressure on the crisis for two reasons. one, 2015, the investment in oil production may be cut globally but by 15%. >> by virtue of these lower prices. >> exactly. this may be in north america in the high-cost areas. this would have an indication on the pr

a disappointing fourth quarter for goldman sachs. trading revenue fell to the lowest in almost a decade. earnings in the quarter dropped 7%. in response, goldman is paying employees a small share of revenue. a top official overseeing the troubled launch of obamacare is stepping down. she will be replaced by a former top executive at the unitedhealth group. they have crunched the numbers and it's official. venture capitalists invested more than $40 billion in startups last year, the most and the.com boom in 2000, 60% more than in 2013. megadeals were huge. uber had two rounds of financing, each bringing in more than a billion dollars. >> now to the fallout out of yesterday's shocker from switzerland. the central bank decision to drop the cap on the swiss franc may put trading houses across the world completely out of business. one of them is the biggest retail forex brokerage in the u.s., fxcm which is facing insolvency. swiss citizens are curious. this move could drive the nation into recession. our international correspondent hans n

>> i think it's nice of goldman sachs to advise jpmorgan on how to run a breakup. it's one of their main competitors. this is an example -- normally, when you look at combinations of businesses that have combinations of businesses this size and you can look at the different businesses and see how they are valued or what the multiples are if they were stand-alone businesses, the math usually works out to a stand-alone business. this one is very different. jamie dimon said it in rebuttal to this. this, i believe, is a business t wherehe whole is greater than the sum of its parts. i think a lot of the businesses within jpmorgan that the analysts point out in this note are the size they are and have the success they do because of the synergies they have working together within jpmorgan. >> the reasoning by the analysts is that the regulatory environment has changed. it has made it so it's much more difficult to operate as a big lender. you have much more of the regulatory eye and heat on you with a bank of that size. >> you do but if you spun off into an investment ban

yesterday goldman sachs slashing it's forecast. that had something to do with the accelerated decline we saw in oil prices but there's a commodity moving higher and that's gold. gold shares at a 12 week high. is that indicating that investors are trying to find a little bit of safety in this market? >> absolutely. gold is finally moving higher given the huge amount of volatility we had and of course also thoughts of more monetary easing and gold hasn't gone higher quicker but as you said it's around about a 12 week high. it's been around that 1200 level for awhile and as it pushes 1230 1240 that's where it was around december. it will be interesting to see if it can continue that momentum now. >> exactly. what does this mean for equities? dow jones indicating a move higher. nasdaq up 22 and s&p 500 with an opening around 9 points. a good gauge of stocks across the world a lot of focus on china. stronger than expected chinese trade data. japan also in focus. we are looking at the u.s. dollar touching a one month low against the yen.

if you bailed out aig, goldman sachs got bailed out. it was easier to bail out aig than goldman sachs and morgan stanley -- liz: piecemeal, yeah. >> the only way they could do it through them, hank argues, is by taking it over, and the only way to take it over was to wipe out the shareholders. and he thinks that's an illegal taking. who's the big loser if he wins? well, the federal government could be on the hook for $50 billion, that's something along the lines of what he's asking for, but the other loser would be aig, and here's why. a irk g had a chance to join -- aig had a chance to join hank's case, and it was a story we broke here on fox business. we were the first to report that they were not going to join the case, and they didn't. and they're going to lose out on those -- liz: and the board at the time accepted the bailout deal. they claim they were under duress, or at least some do. >> the new board of aig for the new company, you know, supposed to have a fiduciary respondent to the shareholders? well, guess what? it gave up o

goldman sachs slashing the forecast for crude. ♪ >> welcome back to on the move. live from bloomberg european headquarters here and london. this is the stoxx 600 up. the footsie is up 27 points. some gains this morning. the dax is up 95 points higher. let's get some stock movers. >> pretty high up there and getting a bit of boosts. the bank of merrill lynch double of grated and it was underperforming. it is now up. there is a little bit of a warm breeze and we get the chinese car sales in december of 13% in december. it got big exposure in china and it is trading up. it is all about oil and energy. it is up by 2%. keep in ion some of the energy stocks. there is the opposition leader and the labor party leader talking about energy prices and saying that they should be given the power to cut energy and gas prices when oil prices are down and wholesale prices are down which is driving down investors a little bit who are worried about the exposure and the downgrade in prices. meanwhile, one of the most volatile stocks, when it comes to oil prices and oil trading below

let's go to the cohead of global macro research at goldman sachs. this has been going on for a while in the likes of germany. why on earth would i want to give anyone money for the privilege of lending money? it doesn't make sense to me. does it make sense to you? >> it sounds like a bad trade. the first thing to consider is if you don't buy these bonds and hold cash, you are getting a more negative yields. you have -20 basis points for cash holdings. -70 basis points. people tend to go into government securities of the highest quality and get a little more. we live in a nominal world so we think about inflation first. we think about what is our nominal return going to be. that i think explains why yields have been negative. the second issue has to do with supply in particular in relation to germany. there is this qe program a lot. people have worked out there is going to be low supply from the german treasury and the qe program means the central bank will have to buy into the stock, so there will be less bonds for private hands to hold and that is

and neither does goldman sachs. you have lloyd blankfein on did you ask him, should we break up goldman sachs? >> he was not prepared to say about goldman sachs. but he did say there were many in the industry that rethink their model in recent years. >> yeah it's good for him to get up and say i think my big competitor should be broken up but i shouldn't be broken up. right? i think it's a very self-serving report. i think it was probably one of the worst things that goldman sachs has written in a long time. because if they don't believe big banks should be broken up, and they don't, they only believe that their competitors should be broken up. i don't think that that's a pretty good research. anyway, the bottom line is what you really have to ask yourself is why do you have so many big banks that do relatively well. and you lose one bank every day, and that's been true since 1987? that's over 10,000 banks that are gone. what is the economics which drive all of these other smaller banks out of the business. and keep

best buy is in the news because of an upgrade from goldman sachs . they are talking about positive holiday sales number -- numbers. >> there is a big seasonal factor, which you could see with the iphone 6. and forte tv's are looking to be the next upgrade. 3-d tvs did not take off, but forte tvs were very -- 4k tvs were very positive. >> does it support the bullish sentiment? >> there was two times the sentiment alone, but that will be for this quarter, so it is near-term. >> maybe down the road near-term is a different story. higher for a second day after a biotech company announced preliminary results? >> they announced that they did preliminary results, forecasting out to see sales double by that. it is based on a year-over-year encore established drugs with 3% pipeline. what you want to do is give in to what you can do with options and volatility, buying the july 120 call for around $13 and that will incorporate two more earnings cycles to see how they develop. >> this is even though the company officially reports the results of the 29th you expe

and the goldman sachs at just 2 and a half percent. why the change? we got to go back to breaking news. >> we are going take you who washington. secretary of state john kerry making a statement about the french attack. >> to meet with us and talk about the important relationship between poland and the united states a very important nato member. before i do talk however about our relationship both of us were just talking about the horrific attack in paris today. the murderous attack on the headquarters of the charlie hebdo in paris. i would like to say directly to the people of paris and of all of france that each and every american stands with you today not just in horror or in anger or in outrage for this vicious act of violence. but we stand with you in solidarity and in commitment, both to the cause of confronting ek extremism and in the cause which the extremists fear so much and which has always united our two country, freedom. no country knows better than france that freedom has a price to. france gave birth to democracy itself. france sparked s