we needm keene said more cowbell, we just got it. tom keene has the fever, there's only one chore. for risk assets, as jason said. after we heard overnight that they are not going to intervene in the stock market directly anymore, this is the backdoor way of intervening. halfway returned to where we work with china now where we were with europe a year ago. we were waiting for mario draghi to make a move, every bit of bad news was interpreted as good news. has movedink china more quickly. iron hee, the ecb, the was draghi said we are going to do whatever it takes. the size of the ecb balance sheet declined by about a third years.e following two china is moving quickly because frankly the stakes are higher politically and socially in china. vonnie: some bond market moves -- a huge move in the german bond market, german 10 year yield up 66 basis points from about 55 following this announcement. china has cut the reserve ratio by .5 percentage point and is making some other moves. the pboc saying the economy is still facing downward pressure. brendan: jason trennert, can the chinese go

olivia: that is not interested in tom keene. we've seen apple down almost 11% over the last two weeks through the big question is why it? we will be sitting down not with johnny ives but dan ives from sbr to parse through this. it was a month and a half ago where carl icon said this company is extraordinary. whether you want an iphone or not the apple ecosystem everyone was to be a part of it. brendan: here is a question from yesterday are we looking at a fundamentals question? olivia: if you look at this company and their growth and how much money they are making hand over fist. take apple versus these social media applications. they are growing and growing but on their balance sheet they are not necessarily making dough. apple makes money while you are sleeping. tom: a price target reduction on apple this morning. let me look at the chart. help me out with this. >> i think bank of america is using palm pilots. this is a really ugly short chart. i was stunned when i saw this. i have no idea. >> it looks like a bracelet they are

stephanie: tom keene joins us now from washington. you must be rolling around down there in all your glory. good morning for you. what was the standout from your talk with stan? tom: i think the conversation was important. what i will tell you is the markets moved a little bit. a little bit of a take of a dovish vice-chairman this morning. clearly, like what we heard from the bank of england last week, this idea that you can talk all you want but vice chair fischer needs to see inflation before he can act. that is what i took away. tracy, what did you think? tracy: i thought it was interesting. we have all these different voices from the fed. they are all supposed to be guiding the market. we did see the chance of se go up totes ri city percent. that is still --60%. that is a long way from 100%. i'm wondering if having different voices saying different things is more harmful than helpful to the market. tom: it is about community edition as well. i thought the vice-chairman stepped carefully. we did not talk about september and decembe

fisher spoke with tom keene. the low interest rates are designed to help the recovery of the economy. they have done that very well. to five, and10 that is what they are intended to do. they also intend to help investment. sawould be happier if we more physical investments and financial investment probably. , andare doing their job the fed has handled this very well. i can say that because i have learned that lately. let's get to the phrase that i describe u.s. altra accommodative. accommodative. what is that, and why do we have this reticent worldwide to raise interest rates? this was said at a time when we got zero was as low as you go on interest rate, could not be more accommodative than zero. now we know you can go negative as well. it is extremely accommodative to not have to pay interest. nominal interest for sure. that is what this monetary policy is about. it has worked. tom: why are we struggling to raise rates a little bit. >> the interesting situation in which we are is the climate has been rising pre

tom keene, brendan greeley, julie hyman in for vonnie quinn. my conversation with vice chairman stanley fischer here on inflation. the problem is not with the part that is unusual with the mandate, namely unemployment -- that is doing just fine -- it is with the inflation part. if we were just inflation target ers, we would be any same situation we are in now, we would have to do even more probably if that were possible. tom: addressing the challenges that the fed in the bank of england have as well. jeffrey rosenberg with us a blackrock. that with the saw bank of england last week. what is the likelihood that janet yellen's fed will blink on september 17? jeffrey: we just talked about it in terms of the global and international the relevant, and those international developers are having an effect on some of the signals that the fed might gauges. so inflation expectations and the market have been coming down because you have this concern on global growth. it is not just about china. you have many areas of the rest of the world outside of the u.

i am tom keene. joining the is not a twin. -- joining the is vonnie twin. national bowtie day. i went british today. vonnie: very candy cane. we look at economics. i do not need any more about ties. let's begin a serious friday with our top headlines. vonnie: another day, another rally in china. chinese stocks rose for a second day. areulation authorities propping up markets before a world war ii victory parade next week. the u.s. rally may not last. s&p futures indicate u.s. stocks will open lower today.. the s&p 500 is coming off its biggest two-day rally since 2009. oil heading for its biggest weekly game since april. wti up around $43 a barrel. yesterday after reports the u.s. economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter. puerto rico being drenched by tropical storm erika. the storm is moving west after flooding the island of dominica. 4 people were killed and several more are missing. erika could become a hurricane if it reaches south florida early next week. thee has confirmed architects of its online radio strategy has quit. ian rogers joined apple and has led

they come up with tom keene on "bloomberg surveillance." we are in the red now 30 minutes into the session. good morning. ♪ jonathan: good morning and welcome back to bloomberg tv. let's bring you up to speed with bloomberg's top stories this morning. chinese stocks posted their biggest gain in a month today amid speculation the government would accelerate mergers. china is said to be considering merging its two main shipping companies. warren buffett may be on the verge of one of the biggest acquisitions of his career. according to a person familiar with the matter, buffett is in talks to purchase precision car parts. cap of $27rket billion. the greek government aims to conclude talks on its bailout program by tomorrow to leave time for parliaments to release funds for an august 20 payment to the european central bank. 17 minutes into the session in europe, let's get you up to speed. the ftse 100 just rolling over. on your screen's right now, but only by about three points. the dax up about 0.3%. the ftse mib unchanged. the shanghai comp

i am brendan greeley with tom keene. the equity indexes not at the lows of last march, but it is headed there. the credit rating is not yet john, but it is headed there. and brazil's president has told brazilian tv she has never considered stepping down. that is something you only say when you are being encouraged to step down. umar joins us now in l.a. good morning. have a future in politics? komal: the best thing she can hope for is that she limps through to the 2018 election. at the same time, her party is biting at the heels, she has indicated vaguely and very he isy in some ways that ready to step in if she has to step down. the problem she faces, not only the economy, the intense amount of corruption that is being discovered a petrobras, and also the fact that the politics is very fragmented. the people who have to support her in congress are also the very same people who are being investigated. somethingrendan, unusual for a developing market -- people who are very high up in business are finding themselves in jai

tuesday, august 18, i am tom keene. with me vonnie quinn and brendan greeley as we await walmart earnings. brendan, what is interesting if you wonder what part of america walmart represents. not the same as that used to. brendan: there was a note that basically said income inequality hitched on walmart because if it increases, how much money on the bottom they will spend, they are squeezed out of the top. these kind of economics, thomas piketty, matters. tom: they are getting killed on the bottom down below. i really wonder where they fit in and five years. vonnie: they are definitely paying their employees more. the question is -- do the employees, were they able to spend more and walmart? tom: we will go over top headlines. vonnie: china's economy and what the government there will do to kickstart it because it is making headlines again. was the worst day for china's stocks in three weeks. down more than 6%. for each stock that rose, nearly three dozen fell. 600 companies hit the daily drop limit of 10%. i want to mov

vonnie quinn, brendan greeley, and tom keene. in trading in currencies, but also any most interesting pharmaceutical transaction. well by sprout pharmaceuticals for one large, $1 billion. how you pronounce it? addyi. the first drug to treat female sexual disorder, desire. i have never, ever, ever seen a drug rollout so negatively viewed by the medical establishment. doctors hate this there a few. olivia: this is not the first time doctors have tried to roll out a drug to treat female sexual disorder or to try to come up with something to boost female libido. consistently, the fda has rejected everything else because of safety concerns. earlier this week, the fda fromved this drug sprout pharmaceuticals. it is because of the risk-safety profile. brendan: they approved it with the risk caveats, you have to be explicit about this list of side effects, and there is a long list of them. it will reallyid focus on the marketing, and that is a huge open question. how you market a drug where you have -- tv: -- ia every drug on olivia: eve

manus: tom keene has both of those. high on the priority in the absence of when the next hike is going to come. opportunity. join us on twitter. we are @flacqua and @manuscranny. what do the markets want to know? oil? what is dominating the thoughts of the current vice chair of the federal reserve? francine: that is it for "the on bloomberg tv and stay tuned for "surveillance." let's have a quick asset check the european stocks falling for a third day. they opened higher, they are now lower. energy dropping. we talked about oil, will kennedy on this. manus: miners under pressure. gdp numbers at the end of the week. will it be the ninth straight quarter of growth? ♪ announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom: german and swiss yields plunged. oil continues to not find the bid. the global economy considers deflation. america stands alone this morning. stanley fischer -- alan greenspan on a less productive america. and warren buffett -- you know he loves food stocks. berkshire hathaway shows ultimatein the precision

tom keene with "surveillance." rio tinto has posted a 43% drop in first-half profits to the figure of $2.9 billion beating estimates, but down from $5.1 billion a year earlier. sam walsh: we expect it will be somewhere in the middle between where we are now and where we have been. that applies not just to our commodities, it applies to oil, gas, and a range of things. as the world looks for efficiency, lower cost, and more efficient investments, that is why we started reshaping the business to and have years ago to meet the expectations of our customers in the market. francine: joining us is bloomberg's energy and commodities reporter. it has affected earnings. rio tinto beat estimates. >> it highlights what's happened in the mining sector. at least a big oil company has the refineries. they could use them to whether the slumping prices. for the miners it is a brutal drop when you have oil prices going down, it slows down. 43% for rio tinto. i have seen the minors, and rio tinto in particular, showing that they can

francine: tom, thank you so much. tom keene, "surveillance" in 25 minutes. i always like it when you talk about plane rides. tom: a total nerd fest. francine: i like it. tom, thank you. manus: let's talk about greece. it has finalized a bailout package. they will submit the agreement. the aim for the lawmakers is to vote on it on thursday according o state-run erttv. marcus, what can you tell us about the final terms of the bailout? were there any surprises in this? >> perhaps the biggest surprise is how quick lit has been concluded. if you're used to the previous exercises of bailout negotiations, when you -- yesterday when there was optimism that it would conclude today, it was hard to believe that it would actually happen. now beyond that, from the point of view that the government agreed to accept this third bailout, this third memorandum of understanding, you know, what we're seeing and hearing so far about measures, what has been reported about measures, very much it is about, you know, a lot of technicalities, the implements, the broad outlines of thi

i am tom keene. i take two days off, look what happens. a tent in central park, i had my insect repellent. trout fishing in the pond. i found nature in new york city. >> did you do the boats? tom: we did the gondola rides. i did not sink. it was great. tom: for all of you worldwide, come to new york city for vacation.

he spoke exclusively in an interview with tom keene. stanley: low interest rates are designed to help the recovery of the economy. in terms of employment, which is what really matters, they have done that very well. five, andom 10 to that is what they are intended to do. they are also intended to help investment. we would be happier if we saw more physical investment and financial investment probably, andthey are doing their job the fed has handled this very well. i can say that because i have only joined lately. let's get to this phrase which i ascribe to you, alter economy. i saw the physical force that you put into that phrase, ultra accommodative. what is ultra accommodative, and why do we have this reticence worldwide to raise interest rates? stanley: it was set at a time that we thought zero was as low as you could go on interest rates. we could not be any more accommodative than the zero we are effectively at. now we know you can go negative as well. but it is extremely, extremely accommodative to not have to pay interest. nomina

i am brendan greeley with tom keene. tom: this is an important point, but all of the hysteria about china and modest moves of devaluation need to bring some common sense and link in here commodities with the equity markets. the bank of montreal has a heritage of looking west to alberta and the commodity business of canada. brian belsky -- is that how you say it? bmo capitalith markets. we've all read about the amplitude falling off. give us a statement right now that your team sees on canadian oil. is it too late to adjust? guest: know and they are in the process. of starting to adjust. if you look at the better part of 12 to 14 years wti is treading higher. four really only been quarters or so that they have to adjust operating structures. we need to see the forecasts continue to come down and we need to see companies rebuild their balance sheets. for the same reason we love financials and tech we do not like energy and materials. we need to see massive structural reform and we are still in the early stages. in both our

tom keene just asked, are we slaves to data? stanley fischer said we had better pay attention to data. carl: the economy is going along at 2.25%. we will not get the pickup and capital -- the pickup in capital that he is looking for. you have to watch to see as the economy is accelerating. we are not seeing strong evidence of that strong acceleration yet. areie: what other data going to give us some kind of indication of where u.s. inflation is going? sales latere retail this week. two retail sales reports before the september fed meeting. we get two industrial production reports before the september fed needing. -- before the september fed meeting. is, as weteresting look into the details of last friday's jobs report, it tells us manufacturing production may eat out a positive gain when it -- maybe eke out a positive gain. brendan: with us for the entire hour is carl riccadonna. almost as important as carl riccadonna, former fed chairman alan greenspan. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." good morning. ♪ this is a great place

manus: tom keene joins us now from europe. you want to talk about the dollar. we had george magnuson here from u.b.s. the dollar is in the foothill turnovers next big move. -- of the next big move. tom: i loved jon ferro's data check. i just brought up euro/sterling. ou wonder if the strength gets back to 2000 levels. it is not just a dollar story. it is the complexity of all the different currency pairs. the real question here is after a good 50% dollar move, do we see another new leg of dollar strengths? soros of to martin w.p.p. we'll talk to dan suzuki of merrill lifrpbl. a special guest this morning, david goldman will join us. for years at bank of america. david goldman is adamant, manus that this is just as much about weakness that has to come. it is not just a dollar story. manus: of course the i.m.f. will have something to say about that and whether it gets into that special -- have a great show. sounds like it is action f-packed. tom keene with "surveillance." manus: let's get more on shire's $30 million bid. first of all, talk to us a little bit abou

francine: tom keene with "surveillance." manus: anglogold ashanti the latest casualty in the drop off of the price of gold. price of gold? we heard from the ceo earlier from a reporter in johannesburg. let's bring in our precious in metals analyst. we were talking about the oil , have wed a catharsis reached a cathartic moment in the gold market? >> we can still see more selling in gold. year,recast is 1110 this 950 year. a lot will be a focus on wendy -- weterest rates will be expect this in september between 0.25 and 0.5%, the rates. of thessure, and a lot depreciation, we will see depreciation in the currencies. we've already seen it on the back of the expected interest rate hike. that can be good news for the producers in a developing country or a country such as south africa, also australia. be dropping inl the local currency. that can be beneficial. they are on a big drive to cut costs. quite a few producers are releasing quarterly performance reports. we started seeing it in 2012 when we saw the prices on gold startin

i am vonnie quinn along with tom keene. note saying been a he doesn't read course go to doesn't really pay attention to charts but sometimes he does and the euro chart right now is one of them. thank you for joining us. does the euro continued to be in a safe haven or have we returned to the status quo? >> i think if we had another dreadful day in global commodities and equity prices you would still see all of the three major currencies rally against all of the commodity producers and the emerging-market currencies and of those if the world gets itself in a bad place we all push back forever in the day the fed raised rates but i don't know that we completely got out of that. vonnie: you called this week messy. does the federal reserve clear that mess? >> no. just beingyellen away from it will get pointers from jackson hole but i do think anything clears us up until we get to the data and into the run up to the fed think that is part of the problem. >> let me go to your morning note as funny did earlier. here is a different

i'm tom keene. vonnie quinn. mr. buffett going downstream over the weekend. vonnie: is this a value play or an energy play? tom: i'll be honest, i almost lost track of phillips 66. it will be interesting to talk about. vonnie: as summer driving season comes to a close. right now on this monday, let's get straight to our top headlines. here's vonnie quinn. vonnie: stocks headed for the worst month in more than three years. msci global index down more than 6% in august, and chinese stocks continue the largest two-month selloff since 2008. there is concern that government intervention to prop up the market will fail. meanwhile, fed vice chairman stanley fischer hinted that raising rates has not been ruled out. mohamed el-erian said investors should not count on the fed to ride to the rescue. market has been conditioned to view the central banks as their best friends, so whenever there is a hiccup, people look to the central bank. i do not think this time around the central bank is going to respond. the fed has reason to not do qe4. a new poll shows bernie sander

tom: brendan greeley, vonnie quinn, and tom keene from new york. the bank of england, a dovish statement. let's get to morning must-read. brendan: trop and bush thinking fast and slow. and bush thinking fast and slow. two politicians are not exactly thrilling but seem to be right for the job. john f. kennedy and ronald reagan did the first profile while lyndon johnson and george h.w. bush matched the second. we have justin fox, from the ofvard is this the once, now bloomberg view, is this a reasonable way to look at candidates -- are we all living in this world? andll of us have system one two in our heads and even ronald reagan and john f. kennedy had their moments of collective thought. clearly, trumps appeal has to do with this -- do something. i like the analysis, i do not know if it splits that evenly. brendan: i think back to the 2008 convention with sarah palin and john mccain. in --ow much more excited excitement in that auditorium, it was not there for mccain. justin: it is the difference between politics and policy. that is one of our nat

erik: that was bill gross speaking with tom keene. let's go back to julie hyman with a little more on the work released at 830. what else stands out for you? julie: the big take away from this report is just how unremarkable it is right it really does stay on trend from what we have seen recently in even the deceleration to 215,000 jobs last month still keeps the average. it has even come up a little bit because of the couple months of revision. the other number that stands out because these are also in line with estimates but underemployment rates being at 10.4%, the lowest since june of 2008. part-time workers who would like to have a full-time position. tom keene did just point out we have a relatively anemic wage growth year-over-year. but again, all of this keeping the trajectory. tv securities had an interesting quote. why i shouldn't, not why i should. we never so i think in these numbers that had a big deviation. erik: thank you. let's go to the market reaction. i was keeping my eye on the two-year treasury, which is seems as

tom keene is off today. let's look at markets in europe. an alarming shade of red coming out of germany. the dax down 2.4% so -- 4.2% so far. the lowest level since 2011. tftse down as well. michael holland this year. let's ask the question -- michael holland is here this morning. union, or isropean that also in china? michael: china is a big part of it. china's relationship with your -- germany. it is of a piece. the psychological part we talked about earlier is in all markets, commodities, emerging markets, or european. the real world for germany is less good, for china it is less good. michael: this is the month where everybody disappears and goes on vacation. we are seeing enormous volume in germany today. the dax -- you can see the volume there -- at this time of day you would have 43 million shares traded. 100 and 88 million shares traded so far on the dax index. -- 188 million shares traded. people seem to be coming back into get out. michael: that may be part of the story, but i think you put your finger on another part of the story

i'm brendan greeley with vonnie quinn and tom keene. iowa.ate fair at from where we sit, there were only two stories on the trail. donald trump and bernie sanders. is that true in iowa? >> they are certainly big players. both of them were here on saturday and made big splashes. jeb bush is a story. scott walker will be at the fair today and he is a big story. hillary clinton was also here on saturday and is a big story. trump and sanders getting a lot of tension, deservedly so, but there are other people in the race who will be players. brendan: who is doing the best job at this iowa game? you have been watching this for a long time through a lot of cycles. who does it the best? >> hillary clinton has got a very big lead over bernie sanders and martin o'malley. is thissurprising to me is an organization game. the number of people who vote on both sides will be fewer than 200,000. you reach out to regular caucus-goers on a regular basis and if you are donald trump or dr. ben carson, trying to bring in new people, bernie sanders, as well.

i am tom keene. -- this monday, august 3. i am tom keene. here are top headlines with vonnie quinn. vonnie: degree stock market is back in business, reopening after a five-week shutdown. the athens stock exchange was quickly hit with a 22% loss. shares of two major banks fell the maximum the market allows, 30%. trading was stopped in late june when the debt crisis deepened. the news is no better. president obama is taking his plan to fight global warming to the american people today. he will make a televised address this afternoon. he previewed his proposal by posting a video on twitter. the new rules and to reduce greenhouse gases, call for cutting emissions by u.s. power plants by nearly one third within 15 years. fightingns are already the plan. senate majority leader mitch mcconnell is telling all 50 governors not to obey the new rules. america accounts for 1/7 of the world's in missions. have -- of the world's emissions. you can see the president's announcement live on bloomberg tv at 2:15 p.m. eastern. biden -- an that joe joe biden presidential campaign may be more than a win

we will be live from the capital , tom keene will be there in washington dc at 7:00 a.m. eastern time. emily: it is a largest hacking gathering in the world -- def con, ground zero to the latest hack attacks and sell th self-defense. no computer systems are saved here. bloomberg west is the first show ever to broadcast from def thein las vegas with masterminds of the cyber underworld. an exploding to multibillion dollar business. chang and welcome to a special bloomberg west live from def con in las vegas. coming

i'm tom keene. brendan greeley and vonnie quinn here as well. walmart is the pulse of america -- but is it anymore? brendan: it used to be the best logistics, and one of the things we are learning is that they are behind in logistics. marines too hire help them figure this out, and now they cannot do what amazon does. right now, though, what an amazing market. let's get to top headlines. here is vonnie quinn. vonnie: investors in china may be betting that the government will

i'm tom keene. vonnie quinn. mr. buffett going downstream over the weekend. vonnie: is this a value play or an energy play? tom: i'll be honest, i almost lost track of phillips 66. it will be interesting to talk about. vonnie: as summer driving season comes to a close. right now on this monday, let's get straight to our top headlines. here's vonnie quinn. vonnie: stocks headed for the worst month in more than three years. msci global index down more than 6% in august, and chinese stocks continue the largest two-month selloffsi

brendan: i am brendan keeley with tom keene. tom: a number of times mentioned this morning, there are 4325 days until the election -- whatever. it is just out there somewhere. it is time for another poll and here is a smart pulled. bloomberg politics national poll of republicans. mr. trump does well and everybody else well, everyone is focused on mr. trump. someone like carson, carly fiorina, and carry, we need to get perspective on this in from des moines and and seltzer is with us. surely one of the nation's experts on polls. can i trust your work now versus the october? are these good polls and other beneficial to mr. trump and other candidates? ann: a were mostly created to help you out who is going to be on the stage for fox news. that is what they are deciding for for that short-term measurement. in terms of whether any poll taken in august is going to predict what will happen, you would hope not. the candidates are about to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to change poll numbers. of course we expect these to change.

i'm tom keene. joining me, brendan greeley and vonnie quinn. brendan: they are making the case in front of the bundestag. we will talk with hans nichols in a second. angela merkel will not talk. we think she will put it on wolfgang schauble. we are not worried about whether this passes. the greek it will pass. we are looking at how many members of her party defect. president like the and john kerry or the president and jack lew. brendan: it is like the president and harry reid. they are all members of the same party. it is more who is responsible for the party. tom: i want to know about the german parliament. as move on to top headlines. he was vonnie quinn. vonnie: good morning for you later today the federal reserve is releasing minutes from last month policy makers meeting. investors are waiting to see whether there is a consensus that september is the right time for the first interest rate increase in nine years. more than 75% of the economists surveyed say the fed will raise race -- will raise rates. the annan has devalued -- vietnam has d

manus: tom keene joins us now from new york. tom, some really, really aing moves in these emerging market currencies and the yuan. cameron watt has been here throughout the morning from blackrock. he said it is a depreciation, not a deevaluation, tom? tom: i don't agree with that at paul. i think it is a true deevaluation because it has been a farce for many, many years. they have been in charge of their currency and when you're in charge you can call it a true deevaluation but i take the point that it will be a repetitive deevaluation which begins to look like a epreciation. london just publishing moments ago about the new volatility. i'm focused like jon ferro on the new negative low yield for the two-year german. maybe it is the deflation wars and the not the currency wars. we'll talk to brian belsy. we have futures to a new negative 23 this morning on the s&p futures. hans nichols is with us in new york this week, which is a great pleasure for us and we'll talk to mr. nichols about the effects of that depreciation over to th

tom keene in new york. coming up in 25 minutes. let's turn back to oil. the longest run of declines with no sign of an end. the lowest level of prices in six years. it will last through until next year and opec production -- last month it was the highest in more than three years. the phrase we have used, a crescendo of noise on the downside. >> the oil industry is talking lower for longer. the lower is getting even lower and the longer -- when you start talking to the analysts, the recovery was supposed to happen in 2015. now we are talking about 2016. it is getting even longer. francine: what does it mean for the bears? is it a done deal? we spoke to andrea williams. since there is such a crescendo, we know you had some great stats, but there are so many people talking. >> that is what we are going to begin to hear from some of the traders. it is difficult to say that there is much downside. we are at $42. can it go a lot lower? we could have a selloff, a one-day selloff. i don't think there is much downside from current levels. to go low, is that a big

let's get to tom keene. he joins us from new york. the market just wrapped up some of the size and scope. global equities wiped. emerging markets are under pressure. oil is at levels that we have not seen a round of losses like this since 1986. this is beginning to get legs? tom: yesterday afternoon is when we got the legs moving. the german 10 year yield is coming in. the quiet story is a lower safe haven move, price up yield down in the 10-year german yield. it is one of the leaves linking in the golden route into different pieces. we will have 2 wonderful guests on "surveillance" to drive this cross asset and economic conversation. .effrey currie of goldman sachs he has not only been dead on on oil at 39, but he has been quite good about lower longer. we will talk to jeffrey currie about commodities and how they link into everything else going on. we will have a special guest joining us with his first interview with baron von bank. ofwill speak to dr. leavy his harsh criticism of what mark carney is doing. and for that matter, jane

i am tom keene with brendan greeley and the surprise -- you never know, greece, positive gdp. summer'sa lot of the chaos is not included in those numbers. two looking at two things, vigorous denials, china denying managing currency. dilma rousseff denying she is considering stepping down as president of brazil. both of them are protesting too much. contemplating -- what mr. biden will do within his future. brendan: he is having conversations. tom: we're going to have a

alan greenspan spent some time earlier today with tom keene and tomas him what he is more -- tom asked him what he is most concerned about. greenspan: productivity is not different from zero growth in the last six to eight quarters. the cause of that, if you look backwards from the closet of usative chain, is capital investment has been inadequate to fund the amount of assets you need. sat in yourscher chair and said that, that we need more investment in america. all of our viewers and listeners agree with that statement. can government be the catalyst to more investment that creates more jobs that allows for greater productivity? the only catalyst effect useful is withdrawing, not moving forward. if you look underneath the data, what you see is that starting essentially with 2009, following the crisis, the gdp as we have conventionally measured it has twoided itself into r significantly different sectors. one is for assets, which have a life expectancy of more than 20 years, mainly structures, but heavy equipment -- stuff, bigger stuff. mr. greenspan: not older, bigger. is remainder o

tom keene declared a currency war. it's interesting. .imm: i'm going with mr. k let's look at the top stories at this hour. the u.s. inflation report rose less than estimated and remains below the target of 2%. the consumer price index rose in july at the slowest pace in three months. .3%.ne, prices increased gasoline and food prices increased marginally but the posted shelter solid gains. household furnishing costs fell. , the federal reserve will release minutes from last month policy makers meeting. the notes may show whether there that consensus september is the right time for a rate increase. earlier, we spoke with the chief economist at j.p. morgan securities. >> the reason why the fed is thinking about tightening is potential growth is leading to rapid tightening in the labor market. you get lower equilibrium rates -- you have to get there quicker. more than three quarters of the economists surveyed by bloomberg say the federal reserve will raise interest rates at next month's meeting. shares of target higher today. the discount retailer posted second-qu

alix: that was bill gross speaking with tom keene. if the world is heading to deflation, can one central bank start to raise rates? lisa abramowicz is here. what is so fascinating is as the threat of higher rates emerges, markets have moved in front of that, what does that look like? lisa: if you look at the pound, it is the strongest since 2008, versus the euro. we are looking at decade highs in the u.s., we have come off a little bit, but the dollar is at a four-week high. there are expectations that the fed hike will come in september, so currency markets are heading in front of central banks and that is a problem for them. alix: when it comes to the bank of england, maybe them rating --e earlier, it looks like hey the currency market might be doing the central banks job for them. lisa: in a sense. they do not want to be at these levels. when they say that the currency market is doing their job for them, they want to do their job. let's be clear about that. i think the issue is people are hoping that the economy has been stimulated

keene's show, we are getting closer to full employment, but he is concerned about inflation. he is leaving the door open, saying that if china devalues, this brings in deflationary forces around the world and the u.s. will not do with this implication, and therefore that is something we need to take into account. there is no question in my mind that the chinese move today will cut short the fed tightening. i think you want -- erik: we see that with treasuries yielding back. david: the market is very efficient. erik: i want to go back to the point you were making about the impossible trinity. most people are evaluating the chinese evaluation as a short-term effort to boost exports. -- you talking about it are freezing it as a structural capitulation. qe,d: when the u.s. did what happened yet go the rate went down, the dollar collapsed, and the stock market went down. when the ecb did it, the european stock market soared. in to say the japanese qe 2013. china is no exception. they are really approaching the chinese style qe, not to the extent that it will be driving that should

tom keene and the surveillance crew asked him what kind of smoke signals will come out of the fed gathering. the fed has addressed that is the main problem -- we are looking for smoke signals. they are already behind the curve. we should increase rates. the market is currently spooked. they do not know what to expect. ie: why do treasuries play as big a role as equities? member, the fed has been inflating risky asset prices, equities, farmland. housing prices are above the 2007 peak. this monetary policy -- five years of the zero interest rate policy has been inflating markets. for them to take the symbol that the problem in the markets is requiring them to do more of the same -- you charlie, i talked with to work three days after the crisis in cyprus. i invented the phrase twitter vigilantes. there are bond or affects vigilantes. is the world of michael regan telling them what to do? where is the world of vigilantes? charles: the tao cannot wag the dog. what is going on in china has very little to do with day-to-day market trading strategies. it has everything to do with horrible news. von

. ♪ >> speaking on behalf of tom keene yesterday. more on that exclusive interview on bloomberg.com. .ex china devalued the yuan record 1.9%. a it triggered the biggest one-day loss. >> google is reorganizing. shares drop sharply. u.s. economy has made enough progress to warrant raising rates. even if indicators are mixed. his comments came as the fed continues raising rates. indications that the official talks on the first bailout are complete. details to sort out. let's get more on this. what do we still need to find out about this? what have they done, and what have they still got to do? >> we don't have all the details. we have news there has been an agreement. that is good news. we were hoping to have something today. the greek finance minister was saying we might not have something this morning but soon. it looks like they have agreement on the primary budget talents figures for this year and the next two years. they were looking at details of the privatization fund. we will be getting more on this as we go forward today. >> ar

speaking with tom keene yesterday, he was told if the fed were evaluating economy based on employment around -- alone, he would have to raise rates. do you feel the same way? addan: yes, though i would gdp in there. it has been growing ok. not bad and not great. i gave it a b. think gdp has been modest, inflation is well below the target, and job performance is relatively strong. that is the collection of things. he is my old teacher and i am a baked fan of his. they have been, itching, they have wanted to raise the rates for a long time. they will try to find a way to do it. i do not think it is warranted. i think the economy is not growing that fast. china is slowing down in europe is a disaster. the problem is the fed does not have a gdp mandate. a way, that isn the problem, but the gdp and inflation are tied together. they have a dual mandate of employment, deflation. employment is strong and deflation is very weak. what specifically would you look at if you ran the whole thing, what would be the most important factors for you? not a: look, the fed is kingdom. there is a whole com

tom keene is at the head of "surveillance" and 25 minutes. it is pretty surreal. and then and the u.s., our scope this morning that the chinese are supporting the chinese equity markets. everything the market participants have said should not be their focus. are they concerned about social issues? i would say they are moving towards a september 3 celebration. the headlines that they are deep alluding beijing shows the moment. we have risk on trades coming off the dudley comment. we will look at the markets, jonathan ferro bringing us up to date. brad hints from stanford bernstein. in two weeks, we come back from .ummer .e talk about the future as we look at m&a, and particularly energy m&a, we saw that yesterday. a little bit of normality here, even as we focus with mike reagan on what is going on in china. manus: i suppose the other thing is this, are the chinese selling u.s. treasuries? that is a great one in terms of the currency move. tom: i think you are dead on. there is a real mystery to the quality and makeup of reserves held by each nation. there is a que

in 25 minutes it is "surveillance" with tom keene. it is jobs, jobs, jobs and donald trump they. -- trump day. nuancede: a very debate. watched everyy second of the debate and came away thinking there was real substance to it. brandon thought scored real points. we'll be talking to maury harris. and a recruiter from princeton university. francine, what i think is so the jobs theyhat reporting folded into what we witnessed from your coverage of the bank of england yesterday. i thought it was fascinating how the ble took a dovish stance, and you wonder how yellen will react when she received a challenged job report. that will be most interesting at 8:30 u.s. time saying the bigs differs between the u.k. and the u.s. is because you guys are so that what the dollar does does not make that big of a difference. here we are very affected. om: sterling dynamics for the united kingdom are very different than dollar dynamics for the united states. francine: our twitter question is about donald trump and if he has a chance of becoming president.

tom keene sits down with vice chair of the federal reserve, stanley fischer. we will look ahead to that. caroline: thank you very much indeed. "on the move" is next. that is it for us on "countdown ." stanley fischer conversation is one to watch as well. ♪ jonathan: good morning and welcome to "on the move." i'm jonathan ferro at bloomberg's european headquarters in london. let's get straight to your morning brief. china stocks surge. expectations grow the government will accept mergers among state owned enterprises overshadowing weak economic data. the greek government wants to wrap up talks on a rescue program by tomorrow, leaving enough time for national parliaments to assess the agreement. berkshire's new pursuit. warren buffett said to the close to buying decision car parts for close to $1 billion, one of his biggest deals ever. they are just three of the things i'll be talking about through the next 60 minutes. ftse futures in the green. dax futures up 0.5%. will it be a higher open? let's get the market open with caroline hyde. caroline: two days of a

i'm tom keene. joining me, vonnie quinn in brendan greeley. the kids are going back to school. all the kids will disappear the fourth week of august. brendan: i am barely aware that they are there to begin with. they are so well behaved, they are likely on trap -- like the von trapp family. tom: here are top headlines with vonnie quinn. vonnie: good monday morning to everybody. after going dark for five weeks, the greek stock market reopens today, and some investors probably wish it happened -- some invest

i talked to tom keene about this. in the last two months, high-yield has been from 225 to .ver 500 over treasuries we should not lose sight that investment grade and high-yield markets have had record issuances in the last two years and this substitution of debt for equity has been an important tool for corporate share buybacks. olivia: something we have been talking about on bloomberg television, credit fed widening, stocks are not commodity, currencies. the beach, where do you take shelter in these markets? doug: i have been emphasizing sectors like closed and leasable bond funds that benefit -- municipal bond fund's that benefit from these lower rate environments and that on the short side, i have a short life for theircompany reinvestment opportunities are greatly diminished companies like lincoln national, metropolitan life, and corey reassured berkshire hathaway. corey: let's talk about that. you said there are some things you can cap inked already -- eggs you think cap heat already and warren buffett is one. st

i'm tom keene. vonnie, 10 years from katrina. david is there. vonnie: i cannot believe it is a decade. tom: a new city. we will get that later on "surveillance." top headlines with, markets. vonnie: the virginia television two employees were murdered observed a moment of silence. weren parker and adam ward shot to death during a live broadcast. thousands turned out to pay respects. a woman day over interviewing was wounded. police say the attacker was a man who had worked at the station. president obama talked about the tragedy in philadelphia. president obama: the number of people who have died from gun related incidents around this fs and hewar deaths through terrorism. we are willing to spend trillions of dollars to prevent terrorist activities. we have not been willing so far some commonsense sense gun safety measures that could save some lives. vonnie: the suspect took his own life, not before posting the video of the murders on social media. the woman wounded is hospitalized in stable condition. a poll indicates democrats might be better o

i am tom keene. joining the is not a twin. -- joining the is vonnie twin. national bowtie day. i went british today. vonnie: very candy cane. we look at economics. i do not need any more about ties. let's begin a serious friday with our top headlines. vonnie: another day, another rally in china. chinese stocks rose for a second day. areulation authorities propping up markets

he told tom keene that a september rate increase is "almost for sure. " they are committed to the year-end. whether it is 25 aces points, it is 25 ihope -- it hope. that's the majority opinion at the moment. to theat will happen markets if they acted. it's the great industry mystery of it great economist like bread the long -- there is a knowledge base that you can work off of. our audience cannot do that. what will be the market reaction when janet yellen and stanley fischer finally raise rates? bill: there has been some language. --t the forward kurt assumes kurt assumes and i'm looking at the bloomberg page. tom: i like that. bill: it gives the active forward kurt for all countries. fed ratears, the should be a 1.5% to if we get there in 2017, there should be no market reaction. the forward into curve. i know that is a little bit complicated, but all it says is that a sickly investors expect funds to be at 1.5% two years from now. anything less is positive for the market. and more is negative. totalre you managing for return or fighting for principle to grab the coupons you can get? how