economy. but also on the program europe gets tough on tech giants of voiding taxes brussels introduces a new tax loss that will hit silicon valley. some for business on the w. and how you know i guess welcome to the program in a highly anticipated meeting the u.s. federal reserve announced a further rate hike of twenty five basis points for short term rates and also upgraded the outlook for the u.s. economy the press conference that followed the meetings was particular as it was the first one for general powell as a new fed chair pauwels message is that the fundamentals of the u.s. economy are on a positive course the job market remains strong the economy continues to expand and inflation appears to be moving toward the two percent longer run goal the quarter point rise is the fourth in the span of a year and it continues the fed's move away from a recession era trend of cheap borrowing to encourage stimulus another rate increase was widely expected by markets although some observers wondered

economy. also on the program europe gets tough on tech giants of voiding taxes brussels introduces a new tax loss that will hit so it can vouch. for business on the w m how you know i guess welcome to the program in a highly anticipated meeting the u.s. federal reserve announced a further rate hike of twenty five basis points for short term rates and also upgraded the outlook for the u.s. economy the press conference that followed the meetings was particular as it was the first one for general powell as a new fed chair pauwels message is that the fundamentals of the u.s. economy are on a positive course the job market remains strong the economy continues to expand and inflation appears to be moving toward the two percent longer run goal the quarter point rise is the fourth in the span of a year and it continues the fed's move away from a recession era trend of cheap borrowing to encourage stimulus another rate increase was widely expected by markets although some observers wondered if powell m

economy. but also on the program europe gets tough on tech giants of voiding taxes brussels introduces a new tax loss that will hit silicon valley. for business and the w m how you know to get us welcome to the program in a highly anticipated meeting the u.s. federal reserve announced a further rate hike of twenty five basis points for short term rates and also upgraded the outlook for the u.s. economy the press conference that followed the meetings was particular as it was the first one for general powell as new fed chair pauwels message is that the fundamentals of the u.s. economy are on a positive course the job market remains strong the economy continues to expand and inflation appears to be moving toward the form sees two percent longer on goal the quarter point rise is the fourth in the span of a year and it continues the fed's move away from a recession era trend of cheap borrowing to encourage stimulus another rate increase was widely expected by markets although some observers wondere

economy. but also on the program europe gets tough on tech giants of voiding taxes brussels introduces a new tax loss that will hit silicon valley. for business on the w m how you know i guess welcome to the program in a highly anticipated meeting the u.s. federal reserve announced a further rate hike of twenty five basis points for short term rates and also upgraded the outlook for the u.s. economy the press conference that followed the meetings was particular as it was the first one for general powell as new fed chair pauwels message is that the fundamentals of the u.s. economy are on a positive course the job market remains strong the economy continues to expand and inflation appears to be moving toward the two percent longer run the quarter point rise is the fourth in the span of a year and it continues the fed's move away from recession era trend of cheap borrowing to encourage stimulus another rate increase was widely expected by markets although some observers wondered if powell might s

bearly the first move would to pass the u.s. economy. the next development would be let's move out of risk assets and moved to save havens. what is the biggest safe haven market in global financial markets? it is the u.s. treasury market. what you can almost a see is a bounceback in the dollar. that is not our central view. we tend to the opinion that these things will be smoothed over in due course. if you were concerned about of global trade war, i would be very reluctant to go short of the dollar. matt: we are showing the treasury yield on the lower third below you. what do you think about the pessimism that we still see in that market? have we gone past it with 3% the peak or could we see yields go even higher? >> no. if one is reasonably upbeat about the u.s. economy, which we are, we have the impact of the trump tax cuts and of course the lifting of the public expenditure packed in the u.s. to figure as well, we should see a sustained increase or at least a sustained run of decent growth numbers in the u.s. economy over the next fe

economy u.s. business leaders and prominent members of his own republican party have warned his administration is courting economic disaster with the move with the stroke of a pen donald trump shook up international trade. the president signed the healthy new tariffs into law flanked by metal workers he said he was stopping what he called an assault on the u.s. . today i'm defending america's national security by placing cherubs on foreign imports of steel and aluminum. the levees will take effect in two weeks but steel industry executives in south korea set up a crisis meeting right after trump signed them now korea is threatening to bring its case to the deputy oh. we're actively considering filing a complaint with the world trade organization. we've already discussed the issue with the european trade commission and. other countries including japan and australia are trying to placate the u.s. they are praising washington for sparing canada and mexico from the tariffs on steel and aluminum and th

boostx cuts continue to the u.s. economy growth. if they impose tariffs to europe or to china, in a way it was -- is an anti-growth decision. what i would expect about tariffs is a political rhetoric. we have a midterm election at the end of this year. it is important for the trump administration to engage in this midterm election. it is a promise as a candidate during the presidential campaign. today, itat we have is a tug-of-war between rationality in terms of economic policy decisions consisting to boost economic growth through the u.s. tax cuts. we have aer hand, negative force from a political point of view consisting to attraction ofg the electorate to the trump administration in the midterm election. matt: you also have recent stock market volatility. it is not any longer look like a one-way trade on the s&p 500. that the fed put is not as strong with jay powell in the chair? i was explaining a few minutes ago, regarding the fed normalization, the idea is not to create a short-term economy growth. the idea is to be behind the

economy pauwels message is that the fundamentals of the u.s. economy are on a positive course the job market remains strong the economy continues to expand and inflation appears to be moving toward the form sees two percent longer run goal the quarter point rise is the fourth in the span of a year and it continues the fed's move away from a recession era trend of cheap borrowing to encourage stimulus another rate increase was widely expected by markets although some observers wondered if powell might speed up the timeline of bringing rates back up power replaces former chairwoman janet yellen following his nomination by president trump last year but as powell made clear the latest rate hike continues the work of his predecessor. it's gradual process has been underway for more than two years and it has served and should continue to serve the economy well and the board is unlikely to change course soon two more quarter percent hikes are expected this year the federal reserve in the united states raising interest rates and let's bring in meeting c

economy really a stronger dollar is generally the preferred option and we have the secretary of fine and steve newton actually talking down the dollar at the world economic forum in davos of course now a weaker dollar would make exports cheaper but what could be at stake for that. will be offset of that is that it makes it more expensive for the spend less money on the make keeps inflation low home as well so the broader sense is that while it might not be good for domestic industry the overall consumer across the board is better off not talking about consumer concerns we're also looking at potential terrorists being slapped on products by the u.s. administration how likely is it that we'll be seeing a currency war on top of this trade dispute. i don't think we'll see an actual currency war break oh i think the trade dispute is going to be damaging enough without a currency war on top of that and as long as central banks remain in control of monetary policy i think the chance of a currency war on top quite unlikely i think the trade disputes is going to be much bigger fuck that becau

powell says he sees no evidence of overheating in the u.s. economy. our next guest says the fed is shifting its focus. he is a professor at the university of oregon on he is a professor at the university of oregon. people were saying the debate is be threet is going to hikes versus four hikes. you are saying it is a bigger shift. the fed views the economy in a danger zone for inflationary pressure. what did you hear from him or see from the federal reserve that convinces you up this? >> the big shift was in the testimony when the testimony shifted from concerns about achieving full employment, sustaining full employment and now when this latest version, a avoiding between overheating and maintaining that 2% inflation target. it was that shift that became something i.t. didn't to -- i a change in focus

on the u.s. economy with higher prices and with less competitiveness for u.s. corporations the true actual impact for the u.s. economy is not going to be that big anyway so it will depend on again what other countries do and how the trade partners of the united states react to what is going on and effectively this is double trouble making good on a campaign pledge once again. thank you so much in other news the government of brooklyn a fast of says it has repelled a deadly attack by islamist militants in the capital by the do good government the government says militants and members of the security forces were killed when a gunman launched coordinated attacks the army headquarters and the french embassy . security forces rushed to the french embassy to deal with an apparent jihadist attack. gunfire was exchanged for around two hours a government official reported casualties on both sides. witnesses said five attackers course out of this car before setting it on fire then they started shooting french special forces were flown into the area france is fighting jih

as au define goldilocks buoyant economy, which i agree with bob, we have a buoyant economy in the u.s. and globally. we have very little pressure's on consumer prices. we do have asset prices that are robust. bank sees theal asset inflation pay why are we fighting this? why don't we embrace the ecb? they have moderate growth, inflation, asset prices inflating -- why change interest rates? let us enjoy it until it spills over into the real economy. doug: how to that work for japan? bob: it did not work out well. they have asset inflation going on. have often yield control. it is spilling through. jonathan: the 10 year on tuesday was traded and it killed the market. bob: 0.0. kathy: asset price inflation reaches a price where it is dangerous. jonathan: are we there? we arein some markets close. it is always in how do you time it. how high does the rate have to go to get there? i would argue we are not there yet because it is lower than inflation. michele? bob see the interested to economic projections come out. i think it will just higher. it is a negative real yield. they are not inter

you turn around and you one -- the u.s. economy is growing ok. globally we are seeing signs the growth spurt is behind us. a majority of economic data over the last 10 days has shown a weaker tone across the board, really. we had a synchronize acceleration at the back end of last year. it is fading a little bit. if i am growing the u.s. economy with inflation still below target and growth of up to percent, why would i need yields to power up? manus: the other piece of breaking news this morning. surprised to see more reaction in dollar-yen. , neil. i thought markets would react when policy was changing. dollar is on the che tariffs. yen has not moved aggressively in the new year. in many ways this is just dressing up what forward guidance is from a central bank governor. what you think dollar-yen did not move more? >> that was quite a lot. what was the question? manus: sorry. i forgot what it was to lose money in five minutes. >> we saw what happened last year when mario mentioned tapering at the central conference in june. the euro to got like a

economy u.s. president donald trump has been very critical of the policy of former fed chair janet yellen now as all take to replace or stays true to that very same policy is that a good sign in terms of the independence of the fed. indeed it's a good sign in terms of the fed independence and as to trump he's been critical of so many things over his life that we can really always pay attention to that the good thing is the fed does have a good board it does have a good chairperson and it's pursuing by and large the right policy even after the change from yellen to power let's take a look at the situation in the eurozone the german council of economic experts among others is calling on the european central bank to tighten its monetary policy more quickly what is your take on that. i don't think that the e.c.b. should tighten its monetary policy more quickly inflation in the euro zone is significantly lower than in the us we are in a different situation and the trade disputes of which you already me

the president wants a strong economy and a strong national security. and a strong u.s. economy benefits all americans, particularly by helping us maintain a strong military and he's going to continue every day to fight for making sure that we have strong both national and economic security. reporter: he was going to hit him where it hurts. is he prepared to take the hit? ms. sanders: the president is prepared to protect our country. that is the number one priority he has as president is to protect our economic and national security interests. the president is to protect our economy and national security. i'm not going to get ahead of the president's announcement who will replace gary. reporter: follow up on gary cohn. the president touted the strength of the markets. there's been volatility today. the u.s. markets opened down, the asian markets. is he concerned about the volatility in the markets? ms. sanders: the president is focused on long-term economic goals. the economy is still infinitely stronger today than it was when the president took office. we're going to co

kathy, this doesn't quite paint the picture that everything is ok in the u.s. economy. kathy: first quarter is always a little soft and we had a pretty good fourth quarter in terms of consumer spending, so i think what we are seeing is a normal retrenchment you see, particularly a lot of credit card debt was run of over the past couple of months. there is a tendency to recoup. in general, the economy looks pretty good, job growth is good and that drives it. jonathan: bob, are things maybe not as brilliant as they seem? bob: things are awesome right now. jonathan: walk me through why. bob: look at capacity, look at small business optimism. it posted the second highest reading in history. the highest was september, 1983, during the reagan reform years. look at wage gains, they are starting to pick up. and you look at the central banks. they are being slow and gradual and normalizing at a glacial pace that we in the markets can easily absorbed. -- absorb. jonathan: doug? douglas: i think people are looking at the wrong place at inflation, we don't have much consumer price

steel and aluminum to the u.s., but to the u.s. economy itself. the imf issued a statement a short while ago saying we are concerned that these measures proposed by the u.s. will de facto expand the circumstances were countries use the national security rationale to justify broad-based import restrictions. we encourage the u.s. and trading partners to work constructively together to reduce trade barriers and resolve trade disagreements without resorting to such emergency measures. jerry willis is in the newsroom with fallout from a lot of companies. >> i can tell you the dow is down again on trade fears. interestingly, beneficiaries of the tariff, steel and aluminum companies trading lower after a big update thursday. the selloff shows how wide the use of these metals are. from cans of campbell soup to air-conditioners, cars, powerboats. sectors hardest hit, the tech sector keep swinging back and forth. corporations weighing in were mostly negative. here's what electrolux had to say. we believe it's likely to cause a significant increase in the pr

economy in the u.s. -- we have a buoyant economy globally. we have very little pressures on consumer prices, but we do have asset prices that are quite robust. jonathan: bob? bob: but this is what is so great. the central banks see the asset price inflation also. why are we fighting this? why don't we embrace the ecb? they have got moderate growth, moderate inflation, they have got asset prices inflating, why change interest rates? why not just leave it there and let us enjoy the asset price inflation until it spills over into the real economy and you see an inflation surge? douglas: how did that work for japan back in the late 1980's and 1990's? bob: they are still figuring it out. douglas: it did not work out. bob: yeah, but they have got the asset price inflation going on right now. they have optimal yield curve control. it is spilling through. jonathan: another single jgb 10 year that was up traded. tuesday it killed the market. bob: 0.0. the boj owns between 70% and 80% of jgb's. kathy: i think it's dangerous. i think it reaches a point

confidence is enormously important to the u.s. economy. if there was a trade war and a major shock to global confidence, i think he would see that manifest itself not only in equity prices, but also in bond the cost of., and financing for businesses would grow up and that would have an effect on economic growth. kathleen: you warned -- maybe you changed your mind on this, but as recently as december, you said fed rate hikes could help tip the economy into recession. now we see this uncertainty and the other risk. is the risk of recession higher than it was? neel: all of the metrics we look , the risk is very low. but let me tell you, it is always low until it isn't. don't take a whole lot of comfort on that. these indicators are not that helpful. i think there are risks to the upside and downside. we had a strong wage with number in january that the markets reacted to. if there are trade imbalances, that is a downside risk. the risks are probably about even right now. why does the u.s. dollar keep getting weaker? we have had strength the l

the president wants a strong economy and a strong national security. and a strong u.s. economy benefits all americans, particularly by helping us maintain a strong military and he's going to continue every day to fight for making sure that we have strong both national and economic security. reporter: he was going to hit him where it hurts. is he prepared to take the snit ms. sanders: the president is prepared to protect our country. that is the number one priority he hasegawa president is protect our economic and national security interests. to e has-s the president is protect our nick and national security. i'm not going to get ahead of the president's announcement who will replace gary. reporter: follow up on gary cohen. the president touted the strength of the markets. there's been volatility today. the u.s. markets opened down, the asian markets. is he concerned about the volatility in the markets? ms. sanders: the president is focused on long-term economic goals. the economy is still infinitely stronger today than it was when the president took office. we're going

a risk to derailing the u.s. economy. they want to decent a great -- disintegrate into the wider economy. some of which are made. his own constituency. ofre is certainly some kind division emerging. whether or not they can talk him down or not remains to be seen, i guess. yvonne: the question is whether these are negotiating tactics. people are saying this is a ploy to get what they want when it comes to nafta as well. enda: we had light hazard are overnight saying that if mexico cuts a deal with us in nafta, we will happy to take him out of the steel and and you million -- and aluminum tariffs. one, you deal with have the rest of the world clamoring for a similar deal. yvonne: is this all just a political sideshow, seeing these kind of threat. are going to retaliate, and in the end, it will not put much harmonic to? -- much harm on each other? >> trump is sitting around watching fox news all day. he has no strategy. he came up with his pitbulls, lighthizer among them. at the end of the day, there's too many corporate int

the possible failure of the nafta talks could hurt the u.s. economy. he said he was extremely worried about the consequences of a trade war and called on the white house not to jeopardize recent gains. however, the president is refusing to budge. donald trump: for many years, nafta has been a disaster. we are negotiating nafta, as i said i would, and if we do not make a deal, i will terminate nafta. but if i do make a deal which is there to the workers and the american people, that would be, i would imagine, one of the points we will mention, tariffs on steel for canada and mexico. has quit as leader of the democratic party after his poor showing in the election on sunday. he said the centerleft party will not join any government left by the anti-immigrant lead or the five star movement, both parties representing an anti-european is him. the c-- and type europeanism. the ceo of total said more shale is on its way. the shale boom keeps under pressure. patrick pouyanne spoke exclusively to bloomberg. >> i am sure more shale will come in 2018. that it is

treasury bonds the u.s. has been flooding the global economy for decades now in dollars and the agreement is ok we'll keep doing that long as you folks keep recycling that money and bringing it back to the u.s. so as long as it works you can keep cutting taxes neighborly thank you for increasing war spending so you know let's go ahead and give ourselves tax cuts and you know let's build our military even even more the. that is because the us is obviously threatening them towards china and asia and that's going to cost a lot more in terms of naval and air force. crippling development and you know that's the future not they're looking at. washington can be controversial at the best of times but add politics to the mix and someone's going to get upset as happened recently in poland. in a separate case poland's jewish association has accused a catholic priest of spreading hate after he claimed on a t.v. show that jews have their own version of truth. the truth corresponds to who the jews truth mean something tha

we begin the day with the end of the abuse of the american economy that is how u.s. president donald trump today described that moment at the white house when he announced fifty billion dollars in trade tariffs on chinese goods trump said more terrorists could come within two weeks moves which he says are intended to defend the u.s. economy against economic aggression tonight the target is china but trungpa also put the european union and the nafta free trade agreement on notice saying he's willing to negotiate better deals comprised of trade reciprocity and while europe can breathe a sigh of relief for now beijing is expected to retaliate soon with its own tariffs and that has equity markets and governments around the world nervous worried that a global trade war may have just begun but we have one particular problem and i view them as a friend i have tremendous respect for president xi have a great relationship they helping us a lot in north korea and that's china but we have a trade deficit depending on the way you calculate of five hundred four billion dollars do

economy in the u.s. but globally. we have very little pressures on consumer prices, but we do have asset prices that are robust. jonathan: bob? bob: that is what is so great. the central banks see the asset price inflation also. why are we fighting this? why don't we embrace the ecb? they have moderate growth, moderate inflation, they have asset prices inflating, why not enjoy the asset price inflation until it spills over into the real economy and you see an inflation surge? douglas: how did that work for japan in the late 1980's and 1990's? bob: they are still figuring it out. douglas: it did not work out. bob: but they have the asset price inflation going on right now. they have optimal yield curve control and it is spilling through. jonathan: not a single jgb 10-year traded. it killed the market. bob: 0.0. douglas: boj owns 70% and 80% of jgb's. kathy: i think it's dangerous. i think in some markets we are close to the bubble popping. in some markets, we are pretty close. it is always the trouble, ho

economy in the u.s. but globally. we have very little treasures on consumer prices, but we do have asset prices that are robust. bob: that is what is so great. the central banks see the asset price inflation also. why are we fighting this? why don't we embrace the ecb? they have moderate growth, moderate inflation, they have asset prices inflation -- asset prices inflating, why not enjoy the asset prices inflating? douglas: how did that work for japan in the late 1980's and 1990's? bob: they are still figuring it out. douglas: it did not work out. bob: they have optimal yield control and it is spilling through. 10-year: jake peavy traded. -- 70%: between 70 print and 80% of jgb's. kathy: i think it's dangerous. i think in some markets we are close to the bubble popping. but how do you time that? how high do the fed fund rates have to go? i would argue we are not there yet because it is still below the rate of inflation and so easy conditions. bob: i think the fed has a long way to go. i'm interested to s

kallum: well, the u.s. economy is still well above potential. is aboveeconomy potential come you see volatility in the data. it is totally inconceivable the u.s. economy can continue to accelerate only under the conditions the fed hikes. the fed needs to take the position that the rod trend growth can be sustained. i think they will. yes, we have a little politics, and if the fed were to wait now, they might find that in one year's time, it has fallen behind the curve a little faster. the last thing we want the fed to think is they have got to create some unemployment to stop the economy from underheating. julie: at this point, does it have to be behind the curve? peter: i think behind the curve. it makes sense for the fed not to be too ahead of itself. i think we have got to go back to the point of,w will the four hikes. three or we have got to look at the level of interest rates, not the level of changes. i think looking at where the weight is is key, rather than three or four changes. francine: yeah, financial conditions is still where they w

so when did you realize the u.s. economy was heading further south than anybody thought it could? lloyd: i was running a bank and worrying about the risk profile of the institution and what was going on. to tell you the truth, in hindsight, everybody knows everything and everybody remembers having known everything. but in reality, every day that something happened, it was just incremental. david: you and the other ceos office and to hank's he said, we have a problem and i'm going to make you take $25 billion to shore up your balance sheet. was that something that you really wanted to do? lloyd: it is very hard to remember how you felt. i think i'm pretty good at it. being a trading manager, you are always evaluating people's performance and trying to separate yourself from what you know. otherwise you are a second , guesser. i remember what i was thinking. i remember thinking at the time, thinking this would make things safer. i had an element of relief about it. it was going to stabilize things. was there a level of risk out there that i wouldn't have been comfortable -- we spent

economy. meanwhile u.s. allies are scrambling to seek exemptions from the tariffs that trump wants to impose germany's economy minister is currently in washington for talks the e.u. trade commissioner will join tomorrow and the clock is ticking new u.s. import tariffs on steel and aluminum could be imposed as early as friday. the new tariffs come into force on friday and in some ways the german and european steel industries could simply sit back and relax after all steel and aluminum make up only a very small proportion of european exports to the us and yet the e.u. will be the trading partner to be hit hardest by the new taxes. the e.u. as a whole all twenty eight countries would have six point five billion dollars worth of steel and aluminum exports affected by the new tariffs it's followed by china with an export volume of around three billion dollars germany would pay taxes on a total of one point seven billion dollars worth of such exports each year that makes it the country most affected from within th

what the new plan could mean for the u.s. economy. >>> and a quick look at u.s. equity futures the dow is lower by 134 points. the s&p down 11, the nasdaq down 27 more on market action coming up. . thankfully, the breakthrough in prevagen helps your brain and actually improves memory. the secret is an ingredient originally discovered... in jellyfish. in clinical trials, prevagen has been shown to improve short-term memory. prevagen. the name to remember. dawn is serving up dinner for a whole town! that table was like... so big! can one bottle of new dawn clean all the dishes? we did it! 6,000 dishes! a drop of dawn and grease is gone. >>> welcome back to "worldwide exchange." what does the new tariffs on steel and aluminum mean for the economy. let's look at u.s. futures and see what they're doing down 150 points. the s&p is down 11 points. the nasdaq down 27 yesterday we did see markets down 1.7% for the dow. the nasdaq and s&p down over 1%. let's talk more about that impact on the economy. steve liesman joins us with his take >> good morning. i'm hearing a lot

economy, the u.s. economy is fairly strong, it is resilient, it will be fine. the question is what happens next. if senator sasse's right and we get a trade war that breaks out where all across the world, different countries retaliating against each other, and abandoning the kind of postwar economic order that the united states helped create, that is ere it gets damaging. jane: couldn't this hurts the very people that donald trump is peal to if europe goes through with its tax on blue jeans and harleys? wouldn't it hit the heartland? neil: absolutely. one number i've seen that there there are 80 times as many workers who use metal and aluminum as there are producers of those metals in the united states. there are many more jobs at risk if we get into an escalatingre series oliatory measures then the potential benefits of the expanded metals industry in the united states. ise question for the administration ihis a one-off thing, will they do this and then back off and whatever happens happens, or is this the beginning of the story that we don't know the answer t

so when did you realize the u.s. economy was heading further south than people thought it could? lloyd: running a bank and worrying about the risk profile of the institution and what was going on. to tell you the truth, in hindsight, everybody knows everything and everyone remembers having known everything. but in reality, every day that something happened, it was just incremental. david: you went down to the office of the secretary of treasury and he said, we have a problem and i'm going to make you take $25 billion to shore up your balance sheet. was that something that you really wanted to do? lloyd: it is very hard to remember how you felt. i think i'm pretty good at it. being a trading manager, you are always evaluating people's performances and trying to separate yourself from what you know personally. otherwise you are a second guesser. and i remember what i was thinking. i remember thinking at the time, thinking this would make things safer. and i had an element of relief about it. because it was going to stabilize things. was there a level of risk out there that i wouldn

so when did you realize the u.s. economy was heading further south than people thought it could? lloyd: running a bank and worrying about the risk profile of the institution and what was going on. to tell you the truth, in hindsight, everybody knows everything and everyone remembers having known everything. but in reality, every day that something happened, it was just incremental. david: you went down to the office of the secretary of treasury and he said, we have a problem and i'm going to make you take $25 or $50 billion to shore up your balance sheet. was that something that you really wanted to do? lloyd: it is very hard to remember how you felt. i think i'm pretty good at it. being a trading manager, you are always evaluating people's performances and trying to separate yourself from what you know personally. otherwise you are a second guesser. and i remember what i was thinking. i remember thinking at the time, thinking this would make things safer. and i had an element of relief about it. because it was going to stabilize things. was there a level of risk out there that i

economy u.s. business need is an prominent members of his own republican party have warned that his is administration is crossing economic disaster with the move through with the stroke of a pen donald trump shook up international trade. the president signed the have the new tariffs into law flanked by metal workers he said he was stopping what he called an assault on the u.s. . today i'm defending america's national security. by placing tariffs on foreign imports of steel and aluminum. the levies will take effect in two weeks but steel industry executives in south korea set up a crisis meeting right after trump signed them now korea is threatening to bring its case to the deputy oh. we're actively considering filing a complaint with the world trade organization. we've already discussed the issue with the european trade commission and. other countries including japan and australia are trying to placate the u.s. they are praising washington for sparing canada and mexico from the tariffs on steel an

economy in the u.s. but globally. we have very little pressures on consumer prices, but we do have asset prices that are robust. jonathan: bob? bob: that is what is so great. the central banks see the asset price inflation also. why are we fighting this? why don't we embrace the ecb? they have moderate growth, moderate inflation, they have asset prices inflating, why not enjoy the asset price inflation until it spills over into the real economy and you see an inflation surge? douglas: how did that work for japan in the late 1980's and 1990's? bob: they are still figuring it out. douglas: it did not work out. bob: but they have the asset price inflation going on right now. they have optimal yield curve control and it is spilling through. jonathan: not a single jgb 10-year traded. it killed the market. 0.0. douglas: boj owns 70% and 80% of jgb's. kathy: i think it's dangerous. i think in some markets we are close to the bubble popping. in some markets, we are pretty close. it is always the trouble, how do

economy. you can get them without, you know, with two things, economic and financial skills, on the other end you need to know the engine and how to make it work >> you are concerned that some of the candidates don't necessarily understand the engine of the italian economy. >> well, they don't have the experience rome was a very complex situation, of course, was almost in bankruptcy as a town. but nothing positive happened so far. >> this is a city now controlled in terms of local government >> yes >> in the north of italy, the powerhouse of the italian economy, we've seen significant recovery, national growth between 1.4%, 1.6% do you think there are major structural reforms that need to be carried out do you think -- besides from that, do you think all the other parties would be committed to making those reforms >> under -- during the political election, you can hear a lot of promises, we as a country in italy, we have a long story of promises made by politicians and never to be delivered. b

kathy, this doesn't quite compete the picture that everything is ok in the u.s. economy. kathy: first quarter is always a little soft and we had a pretty good fourth quarter in terms of consumer spending, so i think what we are seeing is a normal retrenchment you see, particularly a lot of credit card debt was run of over the past couple of months. there is a tendency to recoup. in general, the economy looks pretty good, job growth is good and that drives it. jonathan: bob, are things maybe not as brilliant as they seem? bob: things are awesome right now. jonathan: walk me through why. bob: look at capacity, look at small business optimism. look at small business optimism. it posted the second highest reading in history. the highest was september, 1983, during the reagan reform years. look at wage gains, they are starting to pick up. and you look at the central banks. they are being slow and gradual and normalizing at a glacial pace that we in the markets can easily absorbed. jonathan: doug? douglas: i think people are looking at the wrong place at inflation, we don't hav

the u.s. state department has approved the possible multi-million dollar sale of javelin anti-tank missiles launch units to ukraine two hundred missiles and thirty seven launch units are expected to be sent to ukraine in december the deal is worth almost fifty million dollars independent political analyst durham glazebrook says that this move shows the u.s. interest in escalating the ukrainian conflict. back to last december and there were signs of the escalation but unfortunate as there's been this there's been a tendency since right back to the beginning of this conflict that whenever there are such signs of the escalation the u.s. and its allies will do a move make a move such as this that will add fuel to the fire of the conflict in order to keep it going that's been the that's been a tendency right since the early days of the conflict when when times were first sent into eastern ukraine there were signs of fraternizing amongst the troops the u.s. wants to see this conflict simmering and w

said trump risks not only harming global economies but the u.s. economy itself canada brazil and japan have threatened economic reprisals but that has not stopped the president from ramping up his rhetoric. it's donald against the world at a meeting with american steel companies the u.s. president defied global concerns deciding to impose punitive tariffs on imported steel and aluminum propping up his own country's industry. very unfairly treated by bad policy by bad trade deals by other countries they've been horribly treated by other countries trump is confident he could win a trade war he defended the tariffs citing national security european union leaders have been taken aback by the move you come on steve is related to over production in other countries than in the u. . europe is concerned that cheap chinese steel will no longer be sold to the u.s. and could increasingly flood the european market that's why brussels is thinking about countermeasures. jobs in europe will be lost due to the american measures and you cannot simply look on withou

well ifina suffer as the u.s. economy was dramatically hit by that? >> it is probably china's last attempt. i would not expected to be something deployed. on the other hand, i would not put it past them to talk about that. there has already been whispering from the chinese side that they know this is an option they have should they be pushed. and that is the point. if we keep pushing china, and clearly threaten to do damage to their economy, to their growth outlook, the chinese will view this as an act of economic war and respond in kind. they are again being judicious and measured in early responses, but the more they get pushed, i think the more we can expect an increasingly stronger response. >> final question on how this may impact the fed. does it change of calculus in terms of the fed and the speed at which it tightens? >> i am reasonably confident that the fed does a lot of contingency planning for a variety of different possibilities, but a trade war is probably not high on their list. i think they are hard at work right now crafting how a tra

and the u.s. economy is quite positive. we think the global economy is growing in the 4% range, maybe even little bit better. some high-frequency that we monitor. those numbers have to get stronger. the u.s. is growing between 2.5% and 3%. well above trends. downuto base is coming from levels already very low. we are getting a fiscal boost, so maybe the financial conditions boost that helped us last year will be smaller this year. we are getting the fiscal boost which wasn't there last year. outlook for gradual increases in inflation and continued gradual increases in interest rates. but is our strongest view where you look if we are relative to where the markets are, we think it will probably hike the fund rate. we have four hikes this year, four hikes next year. julia: you don't get bogged down by political noise at least are now. the chief economist at goldman sachs. back to you. vonnie: julia chatterley. she will be bringing you more from that conference in fact this hour. we will have an inte

you mentioned 17% of the u.s. economy, up by the way, it is personal as well and will touch all of us at some point in our lives, children, loved ones and so it will impact every one. that makes it very, very important. i think about health care now. there are a few dynamics that are challenging. one is the aging population. in the united states, 15% is 65 and older. that number could go as high as 25% over the next 20-30 years in -- and it is something that we are not only seeing in the united states, but around the world. what happens as you age is that you consume or health care. actually, more than five times the amount you do before the age of 65. on top of that, and increasing middle-class around the world, china, other developing markets. they are demanding greater access to health care, so all of that is putting a lot of pressure on the system. how do you keep high-quality, innovative health care that makes a difference at an affordable and sustainable price and in that kind of system? here in the united s

so when did you realize the u.s. economy was heading further south than people thought it could? lloyd: running a bank and worrying about the risk profile of the institution and what was going on. to tell you the truth, in hindsight, everybody knows everything and everyone remembers having known everything. but in reality, every day that something happened, it was just incremental. david: you and the other ceos were called down to the secretary of treasury and he said, we have a problem and i'm going to make you take $25 billion to shore up your balance sheet. was that something that you really wanted to do? lloyd: it is very hard to remember how you felt. i think i'm pretty good at it. being a trading manager, you are always evaluating people's performances and trying to separate yourself from what you know personally. otherwise you are a second guesser. and i remember what i was thinking. i remember thinking at the time, thinking this would make things safer. and i had an element of relief about it. because it was going to stabilize things. was there a level of risk out there t

so i certainly don't think it's enough there is a lot that ails the u.s. economy. you've got a situation where there's just too much red tape many entrepreneurs actually can't get their products off the ground because they're stuck in areas where they are waiting and waiting for green lights and frankly they'd rather go test out their products in china which has far fewer red tape you have basically an educational system that's been failing most of american children. so you know a lot of people are just not prepared to be workers in this new twenty first century knowledge economy so to speak. there are so many issues that he would need to tackle but he doesn't have the time to his term is only four years and so he's just going to go for whatever low hanging fruit he can just to at least pleases base so that he will have another shot or another term later and i think that's a very big and so i think that's. a that's a really good conceptualization there and it's a low hanging fruit here you know michel for me the you know i was a trained historian for me what i thin