jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i am a jonathan ferro with 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: coming up, breakdown on international diplomacy. enough to derail global growth? central bank governor in a world of pain asking the fed to help. ecb refusing to be held hostage and planning to discuss the end of qe. we begin with a big issue, emerging markets asking the fed for help. >> the fed is always clear they are making policy for america. even if you do consider the rest of the world, you are not making policy to bail out countries that are running their countries badly. >> the fed is guided mostly by u.s. factors and it would take a massive global crisis to change the fed behavior. >> when people make the comparison to 2013 and say the e.m. is better place, but we are missing the point there other vulnerabilities, not just external anything but in places like brazil, public debt is a huge issue. >> the emerging markets appears to be contained to argentina and perhaps turkey. this is happening in a period of strong

jonathan: ok. oksana: when i hear, as krishna said, that there is still positive sentiment around e.m., i struggle to understand what sort of price appreciation can you get from a better pricing of 290 basis points over treasuries? so, fundamentals are strong in many parts of the market, we don't argue with that. it is just hard to understand where that price appreciation will come from as the fed continues to tighten and do all it is just hard to understand the things it is doing, and protectionism continues to roll around the world. and my final point on that is we have not yet seen technicals really hurt that part of the market. we have not seen a significant amount of outflows. the things it is doing, and protectionism continues to roll technicals can do very bad things to the market, as we learned with high-yield in 2015 and early 2016, where fundamentals were really limited to just the energy part of the market, but everything fell out of bed. that has not happened yet. jonathan: krishna, rea

jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i am jonathan ferro with 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: coming up, it is a breakdown on international diplomacy. enough to derail global growth? the central bank of e.m. is in a world of pain, asking the fed for help. and the ecb refusing to be held hostage and planning to discuss the end of qe. we begin with a big issue, emerging markets asking the fed for help. >> the fed is always clear they are making policy for america. but even if you do consider the rest of the world, you are not making policy to bail out countries that are running their economies badly. >> the fed is guided mostly by u.s. factors and it would take a massive global crisis to change the fed's behavior. >> when people make the comparison to 2013 and say the e.m. is in a better place than 2013 and a significantly better place than the 1990's, we are missing the point that there are other vulnerabilities, not just external financing, but in places like brazil, public debt is a big issue. >> the emerging mark

jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i am jonathan ferro with 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: coming up, it is a breakdown on international diplomacy. enough to derail global growth? the central bank of e.m. is in a world of pain, asking the fed for help. and the ecb refusing to be held hostage and planning to discuss the end of qe. we begin with a big issue, emerging markets asking the fed for help. >> the fed is always clear they are making policy for america. but even if you do consider the rest of the world, you are not making policy to bail out countries that are running their economies badly. >> the fed is guided mostly by the u.s. factors and it would take a massive global crisis to change the fed behavior. >> when people make the comparison to 2013 and say the e.m. is in a better place than 2013 and a significantly better place than the 1990's, we are missing the point that there are other vulnerabilities, not just external financing, but in places like brazil, public debt is a huge issue. >> the emerging m

jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i am jonathan ferro with 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ david: -- jonathan: coming up, it is a breakdown on international diplomacy. enough to derail global growth? the central bank of alabama is in a world of pain, asking the fed for help. and the ecb refusing to be held hostage and planning to discuss the end of qe. we begin with a big issue, emerging markets asking the fed for help. >> the fed is always clear they are making policy for america. but even if you do consider the rest of the world, you are not making policy to bail out countries that are running their economies badly. >> the fed is guided mostly by the u.s. factors and it would take a massive global crisis to change the fed behavior. >> when people make the comparison to 2013 and say the em is in a better place than 2013 and a significant about her place in the 1990's, we are missing the point that there are other of -- other vulnerabilities, not just external financing, but in places like brazil, public debt is a huge is

jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, will -- i am a jonathan ferro with 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ coming up breakdown on , international diplomacy. will it derail global growth? central bank governor in a world of pain asking the fed to help. ecb refusing planning to discuss -- planning -- refusing to be held hostage and planning to discuss the end of qe. we begin with a big issue, emerging markets asking the fed for help. >> the fed is always clear they are making policy for america. even if you do consider the rest of the world, you are not making policy developed countries running policy badly. >> the fed is guided mostly by u.s. factors and it would take a massive global crisis to change the fed behavior. >> people make the comparison to 2013 and say the e.m. is better place, but we are missing the point there other vulnerabilities, not just external anything but in places like brazil, public debt is a huge issue. >> the emerging markets appears to be contained to argentina and perhaps turkey. this is happening in

jonathan: from new york city, jonathan: from new york city, jonathan ferro with 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ ♪ jonathan: coming up, an optimistic chairman powell on the fed up for a third or fourth hike this year. draghi delivering more dollar strength. emerging markets suffering another tough week. we begin with a big issue. the u.s. economy looking anything but weak. >> the economy is very strong. strong and resilient. >> job markets remain strong. we see a very strong economy across a bunch of fronts. the u.s. economy is in great shape. growth is strong, labor markets are strong, inflation is close to target. the economy is very strong. the labor market is strong. growth is strong. overall, we have a really solid economy on our hands here. so, what we are doing is we are trying to conduct monetary policy in a way that will sustain that expansion. the main takeaway is that the economy is doing very well. most people who want to find jobs are finding them, and unemployment and inflation are low. jonathan: joining us at the table is coli

jonathan: ok. oksana: when i hear, as krishna said, that there is still positive sentiment around e.m., i struggle to understand what sort of price appreciation can you get from a better pricing of 290 basis points over treasuries? so, fundamentals are strong in many parts of the market, we don't argue with that. it is just hard to understand where that price appreciation will come from as the fed continues to tighten and do all the things it is doing, and protectionism continues to roll around the world. and my final point on that is we have not yet seen technicals really hurt that part of the market. we have not seen a significant amount of outflows. technicals can do very bad things to the market, as we learned with high-yield in 2015 and early 2016, where fundamentals were really limited to just the energy part of the market, but everything fell out of bed. that has not happened yet. jonathan: krishna, really quickly, what's the upside? krishna: when we say we like e.m., it is e.m. fx and local

jonathan: from new york city, jonathan ferro with 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is bloomberg real yield. ♪ jonathan: coming up, and optimistic chairman powell seeing a third of fourth hike this year. draghi delivering more dollar strength. emerging markets suffering another tough week. we begin with a big issue. the u.s. economy looking anything but week. -- weak. >> economy is very strong. strong and resilient. >> we see a very strong economy across a bunch of fronts. the u.s. economy is in great shape. growth is strong, labor markets are strong, inflation is close to target. the economy is very strong. the labor market is strong, growth is strong. overall, we have a really solid economy on our hands here. so, what we are doing is we are trying to conduct monetary policy in a way that will sustain that expansion. the main takeaway is that the economy is doing very well. most people who want to find jobs are finding them, and unemployment and inflation are low. jonathan: joining us at the table is colin robertson, andrea di censo, and alan higgins. let's b

jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. this is 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield." jonathan: coming up, wrapping up the first half with treasury bears closing gaps. emerging-market assets facing one of the worst quarters in almost three years. how safe is the new safety trade? investors flocking toward leveraged loans. we begin with a big issue. can u.s. markets decouple from the rest of the world? >> the u.s. looks like a better place to be than the rest of the world. >> we are like one strong island performing well, and the rest of global growth is slipping. the economy continues to do well. it could be isolated as long as the shocks are not massive. >> we are looking at economy that is driven by the consumer. that is driven by the consumer. thinking about u.s. economic health, the consumer remain strong. >> the u.s. will not be able to decouple. it is part of the global economy. even president trump will work that out. >> you are starting to see weakening probably in the u.s. high-yield bond market, even though people continue to s

jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. this is 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield." jonathan: coming up, wrapping up the first half with treasury bears closing gaps. emerging-market assets facing one of the worst quarters in almost three years. how safe is the new safety trade? investors flocking toward leveraged loans. we begin with a big issue. can u.s. markets decouple from the rest of the world? >> the u.s. looks like a better place to be than the rest of the world. >> we are like one strong island performing well, and the rest of global growth is slipping. the economy continues to do well. it could be isolated as long as the shocks are not massive. >> we are looking at economy that is driven by the consumer. thinking about u.s. economic health, the consumer remain strong. >> the u.s. will not be able to decouple. it is part of the global economy. even president trump will work that out. >> you are starting to see weakening probably in the u.s. high-yield bond market, even though people continue to say that the economics are solid.

jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. this is 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: coming up, wrapping up the first half with treasury bears closing gaps. emerging-market assets facing one of the worst quarters in almost three years. how safe is the new safety trade? investors flocking toward leveraged loans. we begin with a big issue. can u.s. markets decouple from the rest of the world? >> the u.s. looks like a better place to be than the rest of the world. >> we are like one strong island performing well, and the rest of global growth is slipping. the economy continues to do well. it could be isolated as long as the shocks are not massive. >> we are looking at economy that is driven by the consumer. thinking about u.s. economic health, the consumer remain strong. >> the u.s. will not be able to decouple. it is part of the global economy. even president trump will work that out. >> you are starting to see weakening probably in the u.s. high-yield bond market, even though people continue to say that the economics are so

jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield." coming up, increasing leverage in a rising rate environment. injecting a little pain into investment grade credit. the transatlantic spread widens. how will committed to gradual hikes, mario draghi going nowhere fast. and pricing in political risk. looking at a string of key elections in emerging markets. we begin with the big issue, corporate america boosting leverage. >> right now it is still pretty attractive to borrow. you have seen a pretty meaningful upsurge in sizable deals. companies are raising $20 billion, $30 billion, $40 billion of money at one go. >> increased leverage on balance sheets is absolutely a risk. i think a lot of companies are much more healthy in thinking through how much risk they want to take, how much debt they actually need. it is definitely an area of concern. >> the economy is on a very strong growth track, no question, and that does support leverage. the question is -- and it always happened in the past because economies

♪ jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. this is 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: coming up wrapping up , the first half with treasury bears closing gaps. emerging-market assets facing one of the worst quarters in almost three years. how safe is the new safety trade? investors flocking toward leveraged loans. we begin with a big issue. can u.s. markets decouple from the rest of the world? >> the u.s. looks like a better place to be than the rest of the world. >> we are like one strong island performing well, and the rest of global growth is slipping. the economy continues to do well. it could be isolated as long as the shocks are not massive. >> we are looking at economy that is driven by the consumer. thinking about u.s. economic health, the consumer remain strong. >> the u.s. will not be able to decouple. it is part of the global economy. even president trump will work that out. >> you are starting to see weakening probably in the u.s. high-yield bond market, even though people continue to say that the economics are s

jonathan: that was bill gross. bob miller, if you are expecting that spread to narrow, how difficult is it to be short bunds? we have an incredibly distorted market. inflation south of 2%. can you short bunds? bob: you can short them for sure. whether you will reap a profit is a different question. to echo what you just said, german bunds do not trade at valuations that have anything to do with german economic fundamentals. inflation is a consequence of negative short-term interest rates set by the ecb and overwhelming intervention through large-scale asset purchase. they are running less than they were a year ago and are expected to taper toward zero. our expectation is the ecb will have a very difficult time exiting long scale asset purchase programs over the next three to six months, even though they may very well dial it down going into 2019. those markets are not free trade based on economic fundamentals. it makes very challenging a relative value trade against a market less influenced by central bank interven

♪ jonathan: from new york ty, jonathan ferro with 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: coming up, an optimistic chairman powell seeing the fed up for a third or fourth hike this year. draghi delivering more dollar strength. emerging markets suffering another tough week. we begin with a big issue. the u.s. economy looking anything but weak. >> the economy is very strong. strong and resilient. >> job markets remain strong. we see a very strong economy across a bunch of fronts. the u.s. economy is in great shape. growth is strong, labor markets are strong, inflation is close to target. >> the economy is very strong. the labor market is strong. growth is strong. overall, we have a really solid economy on our hands here. so, what we are doing is we are trying to conduct monetary policy in a way that will sustain that expansion. the main takeaway is that the economy is doing very well. most people who want to find jobs are finding them, and unemployment and inflation are low. jonathan: joining us at the table is colin robertson, a

jonathan: from new york city, jonathan ferro with 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: coming up, an optimistic chairman powell during the fed up for a third or fourth hike this year. draghi delivering more dollar strength. emerging markets suffering another tough week. we begin with a big issue. the u.s. economy looking anything but weak. >> the economy is very strong. strong and resilient. >> job markets remain strong. we see a very strong economy across a bunch of fronts. the u.s. economy is in great shape. growth is strong, labor markets are strong, inflation is close to target. the economy is very strong. the labor market is strong. growth is strong. overall, we have a really solid economy on our hands here. so, what we are doing is we are trying to conduct monetary policy in a way that will sustain that expansion. the main takeaway is that the economy is doing very well. most people who want to find jobs are finding them, and unemployment and inflation are low. jonathan: joining us at the table is colin robertson, andr

jonathan: i'm jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg real yield." on the auction block. $1 billion of the bonds being sold. it's a debt offering. there is interest at a quarter percent rate a year, maturing in 2024. who knows where we will be. twitter is a broader trend for convertible bonds. issuing to top the 2007 volume. changes in the corporate tax code helping. u.s. investment grade bouncing back from a slow week from last week, with more than $30 billion in issuance. union pacific was one of the highlights with $6 billion in a seven part transaction. with me around the table steer is kathy jones, jay berry, and andrew chorlton . i gave your friend a hard time about short btp's. then it suddenly paid off. let's talk about the trade and what you did that tuesday when things go up. we still a lot of pressure from her and internally. lastowed the reaction tuesday and it shows you how fickle and over positioned the markets are. we cut position on tuesday. where looking to reinstate it on the basis that you had headlines , but fundamentally, it is a

jonathan: from new york city, jonathan ferro with 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is bloomberg real yield. ♪ jonathan: coming up, and optimistic chairman powell seeing a third of fourth hike this year. draghi delivering more dollar strength. emerging markets suffering another tough week. we begin with a big issue. the u.s. economy looking anything but weak. >> economy is very strong. strong and resilient. >> we see a very strong economy across a bunch of fronts. the u.s. economy is in great shape. growth is strong, labor markets are strong, inflation is close to target. the economy is very strong. the labor market is strong, growth is strong. overall, we have a really solid economy on our hands here. so, what we are doing is we are trying to conduct monetary policy in a way that will sustain that expansion. the main takeaway is that the economy is doing very well. most people who want to find jobs are finding them, and unemployment and inflation are low. jonathan: joining us at the table is colin robertson, andrea di censo, and alan higgins. let's begin with

jonathan: that was bill gross. bob miller, if you are expecting that spread to narrow, how difficult is it to be short bunds? we have an incredibly distorted market. inflation south of 2%. can you short bunds? bob: you can short them for sure. whether you will reap a profit is a different question. to echo what you just said, bunds do not trade at valuations that have anything to do with german economic fundamentals. inflation is a consequence of negative short-term interest rates set by the ecb and overwhelming intervention through large-scale asset purchase. they are running less than they were a year ago and are expected to taper toward zero. our expectation is the ecb will have a very difficult time exiting long scale asset purchase programs over the next three to six months, even though they may very well dial it down going into 2019. those markets are not free trade based on economic fundamentals. it makes very challenging a relative value trade against a market less influenced by central bank intervention. r

jonathan: ok. oksana: when i hear, as krishna said, that there is still positive sentiment around e.m., understand what sort of price appreciation can you get from a better pricing of 290 basis points over treasuries? strong inentals are many parts of the market, we don't argue with that. it is just hard to understand where that price appreciation will come from as the fed continues to tighten and do all the things it is doing, and protectionism continues to roll around the world. in my final point on that is, we have not yet seen technicals -- and my final point on that is we have not yet seen technicals really hurt that part of the market. we have not seen a significant amount of outflows. technicals can do very bad things to the market, as we learned with high-yield in 2015 and early 2016, where fundamentals were really limited to just the energy part of the market, but everything fell out of bed. that has not happened yet. jonathan: krishna, really quickly, what's the upside? when we say we lik

jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield." increasing leverage in a rising environment. chasing pain into investment grade credit. the transatlantic spread widens. mario draghi going nowhere fast. pricing in political risk. looking at a string of key elections in emerging markets. we begin with corporate america boosting leverage. >> right now it is still pretty attractive to borrow. you have seen a pretty meaningful upsurge and sizable deals. companies are raising $20 billion, $30 billion, $40 billion of money at one go. >> increased leverage on balance sheets is absolutely a risk. i think a lot of companies are much more healthy in thinking through how much risk they want to take, how much debt they actually need. it is definitely an area of concern. >> the economy is on a very strong growth track, no question, and that supports leverage. -- and it always happened in the past because economies are indeed cyclical. when do hit a tipping point, where is the tipping point? it goes back to the ele

jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg real yield." jonathan: wrapping up the first half with treasury bears. facingg-market assets one of the worst quarters in almost three years. how safe is the new safety trade? we begin with a big issue. can u.s. markets decoupled from the rest of the world? >> the u.s. looks like a better place to be than the rest of the world. >> group is living here. the economy tends to do well. they could be isolated and its long as the sharks are not massive. >> we are looking at economy that is driven by the consumer. the consumer remain strong. >> the u.s. will not be able to the couple. it is part of the global economy. >> you are starting to see weakening probably in the u.s. high-yield bond market, even though continued that people continue to say that the economics are solid. >> it depends on if the trade battle gets out of control, which i do not think it well. but if a mistake is made, and you are playing very high-stakes right now -- if a mistake is made, then this is going to get ugly for markets. j

jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. with 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income, this is "bloomberg real yield." coming up, increasing leverage in a rising rate environment. injecting a little pain into investment grade credit. the transatlantic spread widens. powell committed to gradual hikes, mario draghi going nowhere fast. and pricing in political risk. looking ahead at a string of key elections in emerging markets. we begin with the big issue, corporate america boosting leverage. >> right now, it is still pretty attractive to borrow. you have seen a pretty meaningful upsurge in sizable deals. companies are raising $20 billion, $30 billion, $40 billion of money at one go. >> increased leverage on balance sheets is absolutely a risk. i think a lot of companies are much more healthy in thinking through how much risk they want to take, how much debt they actually need. so it is definitely an area of concern. >> the economy is on a very strong growth track, no question, and that does support leverage. the question is, and

jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i am a jonathan ferro with 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: coming up, breakdown on international diplomacy. enough it to -- enough to derail global growth? central bank governor in a world of pain asking the fed to help. ecb refusing to be held hostage and planning to discuss the end of qe. we begin with a big issue, emerging markets asking the fed for help. >> the fed is always clear they are making policy for america. even if you do consider the rest of the world, you are not making policy to bail out countries that are running their countries badly. >> the fed is guided mostly by u.s. factors and it would take a massive global crisis to change the fed behavior. >> when people make the comparison to 2013 and say the yen is in a better place, but we are missing the point there say the e.m. is better place, but we are missing the point there other vulnerabilities, not just external anything but in places like brazil, public debt is a huge issue. >> the emerging markets appears to

jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: coming up, increasing leverage in a rising rate environment. chasing pain into investment grade credit. the transatlantic spread widens. how will committed to gradual hikes, mario draghi going nowhere fast. and pricing in political risk. looking at a string of key elections in emerging markets. we begin with the big issue, corporate america boosting leverage. >> right now it is still pretty attractive to borrow. you have seen a pretty meaningful upsurge and sizable deals. companies are raising $20 billion, $30 billion, $40 billion of money at one go. >> increased leverage on balance sheets is absolutely a risk. i think a lot of companies are much more healthy in thinking through how much risk they want to take, how much debt they actually need. it is definitely an area of concern. >> the economy is on a very strong growth track, no question, and that supports leverage. the question is -- and it always happened in the past because economies

jonathan: that was bill gross from earlier. if you are expecting that spread too narrow and want to do it by shorting bunds and going long treasuries, how difficult is it? we have an incredibly distorted market in europe. we have an inflation print around 2% but bunds are negative about six years. is this just a widow trade over again? >> you can short them. whether you will reap a profit is a different question. i go back to the prior comment, to echo what you said. don't trade and valuation that have anything to do with the journeyman economic fundamentals, the trajectory of growth or inflation. it is set by the ecb and overwhelming intervention through large-scale asset purchase programs. yes, they are running less than they were a year ago, expected to taper toward zero. our expectation is the ecb will have a debate -- a very difficult time exiting large-scale asset purchasing programs, even though they may whale dial it down. are not free to trade based upon economic fundamentals. challenging a relative value trade against

♪ jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i am jonathan ferro, with 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is bloomberg "real yield". ♪ coming up, a jobs report leaving the federal reserve on track to deliver more hikes this year. political risk in italy, reminding bond investors bet that it might not hate it when it is needed most. and, a tough week for a former bond king. the biggest drop in four years. we begin with our bloomberg jobs report. >> the numbers are strong. >> it is good news on all fronts. >> is a good, solid game in the labor market. i think there which number was very important, good news on the which front as well. >> even though the wages are just above 2.5%, it is stil not strong. right? inflation is bouncing around too. real wage growth is pretty mute. people are dipping into their savings to continue to spend, and that is worrisome. >> 2.7 percent, welcomed the news. still not 3.7% is sustained. we are still not seeing the real acceleration, broad-based acceleration in which growth than we would like to see out there. >> it is pretty much a sc

jonathan: from new york city, i am jonathan. 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield". coming up, the jobs report leaving the federal reserve on track to deliver more hikes. bond investments and liquidity might not be there when they are needed. why this firm had its biggest one-day drop in four years. we begin with the jobs report. it is good news on all fronts. >> it is a good gain. >> the wage number was very important and this is good news. >> wages are above .5%. still not strong. inflation is bouncing around so real wage growth is muted. people are dipping into savings to spend. that is worrisome. welcome news but still not 3% sustained. we are not seeing broad-based acceleration that we would like to see. that hawksnario basically think they can move once twice, some say three times, i say june is the last. >> we will go three to four times, probably four. jonathan: joining me is chief investment strategist, senior portfolio manager at hsbc and bob miller, head of fixed income strategy at blackrock. great to have you with me. bob,

jonathan: from new york city, jonathan ferro with 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is bloomberg real yield . >> coming up, and optimistic checkout for a third or fourth hike this year. draghi -- dollar strength. markets suffering another tough week. we begin with a big issue. the u.s. economy looking anything but week. >> economy is very strong. strong and resilient. we see a very strong economy across a bunch of fronts. the u.s. economy is in great shape. growth is strong, labor markets are strong, inflation is close to target. the labor market is strong, growth is strong. solidl, we have a really economy on our hands here. we aret we are doing is trying to conduct monetary policy in a way that will sustain that expansion. the main takeaway is that the economy is doing very well. most people who want to find jobs are finding them, and unemployment and inflation are low. jonathan: joining us at the robertson, andrea higgins. and alan let's begin with you, colin. crisis, aheard, post federal reserve leader sound that bullish on the economy. certainly withnd the

jonathan: from new york city, jonathan ferro with 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: coming up, an optimistic chairman powell seeing the fed up for a third or fourth hike this year. draghi delivering more dollar strength. emerging markets suffering another tough week. we begin with a big issue. the u.s. economy looking anything but weak. >> the economy is very strong. strong and resilient. >> job markets remain strong. we see a very strong economy across a bunch of fronts. the u.s. economy is in great shape. growth is strong, labor markets are strong, inflation is close to target >> the economy is very strong. the labor market is strong. growth is strong. overall, we have a really solid economy on our hands here. so, what we are doing is we are trying to conduct monetary policy in a way that will sustain that expansion. the main takeaway is that the economy is doing very well. most people who want to d jobs are finding them, and unemployment and inflation are low. jonathan: joining us at the table is colin robertson, andre

jonathan: there we go. the trump twitter account, is it the new leading payroll indicator for payroll friday next month? yes or no? robert: no. i bet on volatility. , no. mary: hopefully not. bob: no. jonathan: you guys wanted to avoid that. they got their pr standing in the corner. great to catch up with you. robert, mary, bob. that does it for me from new york. that does it for us. we will see you next friday at 1:00 p.m. new york, 6:00 p.m. london. for our viewers worldwide. this was "bloomberg real yield." this is bloomberg tv. ♪ >> opec matters. storm central -- storm season picks up in the u.s.. we'd assess the biggest risks to crops the summer. tariff time. clock runs out for mexico, canada, and the eu to get exemptions on aluminum and steel tariffs. fallout from talk breakdowns. i'm alix steel. welcome to "bloomberg commodities edge," 30 minutes focused on

jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i am jonathan ferro, with 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is bloomberg "real yield". ♪ coming up, a jobs report leaving the federal reserve on track to deliver more hikes this year. political risk in italy, reminding bond investors bet that it might not hate it when it is needed most. and, a tough week for a former bond king. the biggest drop in four years. we begin with our bloomberg jobs report. >> the numbers are strong. >> it is good news on all fronts. >> is a good, solid game in the labor market. i think there which number was very important, good news on the which front as well. >> even though the wages are just above 2.5%, it is still not strong. right? inflation is bouncing around too. real wage growth is pretty mute. people are dipping into their savings to continue to spend, and that is worrisome. >> 2.7 percent, welcomed the news. still not 3.7% is sustained. we are still not seeing the real acceleration, broad-based acceleration in which growth than we would like to see out there. >> it is pretty much a s

jonathan: that was bill gross. bob miller, if you are expecting that spread to narrow, how difficult is it to be short bunds? we have an incredibly distorted market. inflation south of 2%. can you short bunds? if you just the widow trade all over again? bob: you can short them for sure. whether you will reap a profit is a different question. to echo what you just said, german bunds do not trade at valuations that have anything to do with german economic fundamentals. it is a function of negative short-term interest rates are set by the ecb and overwhelming intervention through large-scale asset purchase. they are running less than they were a year ago and are expected to taper toward zero. our expectation is the ecb will have a very difficult time exiting large-scale asset purchase programs over the next three to six months, even though they may very well dial it down going into 2019. those markets are not free trade based on economic fundamentals. it makes very challenging a relative value trade against a market l

jonathan: a trip to australia! tiffany: it's a diamond ring! wayne (in french accent): you said that before. say it again. - going for the big deal, baby. wayne: you got the big deal! jonathan: ha, ha. tiffany: hello? open the box! wayne: you won a car! you did it! - (screaming) jonathan: i'm vanilla pudding. wayne: dreams do come true! jonathan: it's time for "let's make a deal." now here's tv's big dealer, wayne brady! wayne: hey, there, america. welcome to "let's make a deal". i'm wayne brady. thanks for tuning in. one person, one deal, let's go. who wants to make a deal? you do. come with me. everybody else, have a seat. how are you doing? is it jacques? - jacques. wayne: jacques, nice to meet you, jacques. - how are you doing? wayne: and so you're a christmas present, yeah? - not only am i a christmas present,

jonathan, we'll start with you on this. the reporting coming out of the quts new york tiles times, believed to be largely led or influenced by stephen miller and also with influence from his chief of staff, former head of dhs general kelly as well. how firm is the president in his stance right now from what you're hearing? >> what we heard from -- from officials on capitol hill and from white house officials on friday was that there was a lot of back channelling between the institutions going on, base he canally white house aides telling people on the hill that the president didn't understand the question he was asked on fox and friends on friday aidn't meano say he would veto the legislation that his on aide stephen miller had been working with with people on capitol hill. you know, for many, many hours on friday there was a.mbiguity about that and tweet by trump. he's going to go up to capitol hill on tuesday and here's what he's going to do. he's going to -- look, the president is unpredictable but the mission is clear,

jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg real yield." jonathan: wrapping up the first half with treasury bears. facingg-market assets one of the worst quarters in almost three years. how safe is the new safety trade? we begin with a big issue. can u.s. markets decoupled from the rest of the world? >> the u.s. looks like a better place to be than the rest of the world. >> group is living here. the economy tends to do well. they could be isolated and its long as the sharks are not massive. >> we are looking at economy that is driven by the consumer.

jonathan: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i am jonathan ferro with 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: coming up, it is a breakdown on international diplomacy. enough to derail global growth? the central bank of e.m. is in a world of pain, asking the fed for help. and the ecb refusing to be held hostage and planning to discuss the end of qe. we begin with a big issue, emerging markets asking the fed for help. >> the fed is always clear they are making policy for america. but even if you do consider the rest of the world, you are not making policy to bail out countries that are running their economies badly. >> the fed is guided mostly by u.s. factors and it would take a massive global crisis to change the fed's behavior.

not starting its campaign very well let's get the view from moscow jonathan how have fans in moscow been reacting to that super saturday with no less than four games. but the fans have been reacting very well i would say after a slow start the atmosphere is certainly growing here in russia it seems that the south american brands are the ones that are here to have the biggest party they probably have the longest journey so that makes sense but iceland top stole the show yesterday we were with the team's fans about two thousand of them just outside the red square before their game against argentina and they were singing songs and celebrating and it was the kind of pride that you don't necessarily see a lot of talk of instead it was just brilliant fantastic and a sign that it woke up so i mean so much to these so-called smaller nations ok jonathan stay with us i'm going back to emily here in berlin what about the other games on saturday what was what are your picks from a lot of action and one of the main takeaways was that france is not yet at the level that many expected them to be. they

not starting its campaign very well let's get the view from moscow jonathan how have fans in moscow been reacting to that super saturday with no less than four games. all the fans have been reacting very well i would say after a slow start the atmosphere is certainly growing here in russia it seems that the south american brands are the ones that are here to have the biggest party they probably have the longest journey so that makes sense but iceland hop stole the show yesterday we were with the team's fans about two thousand of them just outside the red square before their game against argentina and they were singing songs and celebrating and it was the kind of pride that you don't necessarily see a lot of told events and it was just brilliant fantastic and a sign that it was cops i mean so much to these so-called smaller nations ok jonathan stay with us i'm going back to emily here in berlin what about the other games on saturday what was what are your picks from a lot of traction and one of the main takeaways was that france is not yet at the level that many. i expected them to be the

jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. this is 30 minutes dedicated to fixed income. this is "bloomberg real yield." jonathan: coming up, wrapping up the first half with treasury bears closing gaps. emerging-market assets facing one of the worst quarters in almost three years. how safe is the new safety trade? investors flocking toward leveraged loans. we begin with a big issue. can u.s. markets decouple from the rest of the world? >> the u.s. looks like a better place to be than the rest of the world. >> we are like one strong island performing well, and the rest of global growth is slipping. the economy continues to do well. it could be isolated as long as the shocks are not massive. >> we are looking at economy that is driven by the consumer. thinking about u.s. economic health, the consumer remain strong. >> the u.s. will not be able to decouple. it is part of the global

jonathan was on his way to a reality television conference in d.c. when he was suddenly slammed with what seemed like the flu. >> felt like i had been hit by a truck. and i was thinking, please try to help me get cleaned up, get me out of here somehow. >> because you were going to power through? >> power through. it was a very important trip for my team and they'd been preparing a long time, i needed to be there. >> reporter: he trove to the e.r. where he got a shot of morphine before dragging himself onto a cross country flight. he arrived in d.c., but within 24 hours, he was fighting for his life. in icu at george washington university hospital. it was an unthinkable plot twist for a movie producer who never drank, never smoked, and exercised like a fiend. now doctors telling him to text everyone he loves, believing he has only hours to live. >> i made a very conscious decision with the last moment of consciousness i had not to text my daughter. because when they told me that i had a small chance of living i said, there's no way i'm putting her thr

sports as well as our world cup correspondent jonathan harding jonathan firstly to you a disaster for germany what did you make of that performance. well i make exactly that it was a disaster i can't remember the last time that germany played misfired late in any competition the defense so far away from my office issued in mexico really could have won this game four or five nil that's how good their attack was they play smart they played quick football on the break and if they had been more composed in front of goal germany would have been really fast even more embarrassed this is a huge problem for germany there was so much talk before this tournament about their form and the fact that they were a tournament team and they showed none of that here in moscow this evening talking about form i'd like to come to new crest because we saw the goalkeeper gemini manu i know it come back off to nine months off to an injury some will be asking now did he come back to saying yeah you know i can't stop thinking of the three words my left foot you know because if you see he had to push off his lef

jonathan: right. so free black northerners, no promises were made, and they were participating in large part because they hoped it would be earned. douglas was speaking about this in a letter to stanton. he said something like african-american men can achieve freedom and even if the promise is not made now, we hope to be able to achieve freedom and citizenship because of service to the nation being an integral part of citizenship in the united states area goes promises were made, but there were also monetary promises. in the south, soldiers were told they would be free, but there were officers who told their men they were not free until after they had fulfilled their service. there is a gray area whether or not they became free. tensionshere these come from, whether or not the soldiers think they are free and whether the officer takes they are the is where these desertions and mutinies come from. >> you mentioned the sense among black soldiers of personal emancipation and reasons for leaving. my under

jane: jonathan turley, thank you very much aslways. jonathan: thank you. jane:resident trump has long said he wants an official meeting with vladimir putin, and tn the next w weeks,um between the two presidents isse to take place. despite rising tensions between russia and the u.s., national securityon advisor john boas sent to moscow to agree to a time and place. mr. putin says he hopes for a full restoration of relations. president trump said the meeting was a positive element. pres. trump: have said it from day one, getting on with russia and with china and everybody is a very good thing. ry is good for the world, good for us, good for edy. we will probably be meeting sometime around my trip to euro. jane: to get more details about what might be on the agenda, i was joined a short time ago by the director of the wilson center's kennan institute. what does each side want from this? >> i think the fact of the s point become t important in and of itself, but because the relationship is so attenuated. for the russian side, there is no question that a meetin

laura: jonathan turley, thank you so much for joining us. jonathan: thank you. laura: i other news, in afghanistan, at least seven people have been killed and many otrs injured in a suicide bomb attack near a large gathering of muslim clerics in the capital, kabul. the blast happened as religious scholars were leaving a meeting which denounced violence in afghanistan as un-islamic. jordan's prime minister has resigned after public protests against austerity measures introduced by his government. reports said he was summoned by king abdullah, who demanded his resignation. the demonstrations were triggered by higher food and fuel prices and proposed income tax hikes. the ceo of starbucks is stepping down. the firm had 11 stores in seattle when howard schultz joined in 1982, but it now has 28,000 across the globe. schultz says he is considering a range of options for his future, amid talk that he enter politics. maywe are getting more details on the summit between president trump and north korea's kim jong-un. the white house says the meeting will take place at 9:0

harding is standing by at the germany team camp outside of moscow welcome to you both and jonathan i'd like to turn to you first because you traveled back from cazan with the german team last night and i imagine the mood there is not the best. well you know it's the best sorts of put it it's not the best ironic because well considering that seems more like think by most best never rest but there's nothing best about this team the moment the mood last night after the game was well dejection disappointment under the same here this morning the sun might be shining the hotel right behind me that the players are just so so disappointed but rather me talk about it here's what you. think you have spoken about soft plan often enough and knew how tough it would be but we couldn't implement it by me as i am deeply disappointed i was so it's a mistake but now we need time to process and then we'll see where we go from here but if you want to get the nation is deeply disappointed also processing this shocking loss we have to say tom and they're doing so i understand you're looking at the papers no