for "nightly business report," i'm mike santoli. ay>>> thoseo-day gyrations may not let up anye ime soon. hend manager paul tudor jonesho predicted the market crash said that investors should expect more big moves in the year. >> i think we're going to is he a lot more of what we just saw, which is a lot more volatility. you know, it's really say i'm really bullish,ri'm really b. i kind of see a two-sided market. i think in the next year we'll be wre w are today ten down and ten up. >> he did add that a potentialt decline i market could lead the federal reserve to hold off raising interest rates in 2019 and that in turn could boost equity prices. speaking of which, the fed funde fu markets which reflect traders sentiment about the future rate moves byerhe f reserve, it's gradually reducing the probability of a dember te increase. it now stands at 68%. that's a ur-month low. the market is also interestingly currently pricing ino rate increases for all of next year. that could change though. >>> as we mentioned at the top of the progr

for "nightly business report" i'm mike santoli. >> the fed meeting mike referenced has been a focus for investors and especially today. over the weekend, long-time hedge fund manager stanley drukenmiller wrote central bankers should not raise interest meets this week. that was echoed by white house adviser peter navarro. >> on wednesday, the only argument i'm hearing for the fed to raise rates now is that somehow they have to exert their independence from the white house. this is a bad argument. i think what the fed should do is simply do what it says it is going to do which is look at the data. >> so with the fed meeting looming and volatility on the rise, what should investors be watching? we are joined by jeremy bryan from gradient investments. nice to have you here. >> thank you for having me. >> let me pick up on what mr. navarro said. there are people on wall street who feel as though the market is concerned about the fed's independence and as a result of that, it almost forces them to maintain their independence by raising interest rates this week. what do you think of that argum

mike santoli will join us with a look at one wall street firm out with a bullish call this morning. as we head to a break, let's take a quick check of what's happening in the european markets. the biggest decliner is the cac in france expanding the losses that we saw earlier this morning at&t provides edge-to-edge intelligence, covering virtually every part of your finance business. and so if someone tries to breach your firewall in london & you start to panic... don't. because your cto says we've got allies on the outside... ...& security algorithms on the inside... ...& that way you can focus on expanding into eastern europe... ...& that makes the branch managers happy & yes, that's the branch managers happy. at&t provides edge-to-edge intelligence. it can do so much for your business, the list goes on and on. that's the power of &. & when this happens you'll know how to quickly react... this is a tomato you can track from farm, to pot, to jar, to table. and serve with confidence that it's safe. this is a diamond you can follow from mine to finger, and trust it never fell into the

for more, we're joined by michael graham and mike santoli gentlemen, good morning. michael, start with you. how would you characterize the sell of faang stocks, do you think looking at the bounce we have a bottom in terms of valuations >> it is hard to say if we have a bottom in. any time you have stocks that performed so well for such a long period of time, you're boun bound to go through periods of collection i feel as we look ahead, fundamental outlook is solid all of these stocks are going after large markets that are still in early to mid stages of shifting online. i do feel there's a good fundamental outlook for several years. in the short term, i think it is important how january plays out. you sort of need markets to get back to bullish risk taking mentality. so i think the first few weeks in january will be fragile for the group. hopefully we can see it recover. >> mike, we have seen dramatic moves lower in big cap tech names. when you put them in perspective in terms of the year with the kmep exception of facebook, a lot of them, amazon, microsoft, still h

well off session highs mike santoli is looking at some of the levels we're watching dow session high was plus 442. >> yeah. >> now some 200. >> above 500 in premarket. it was a bit of emotional response context matters. if we didn't have the news about u.s., china trade, i think we would have come into the week saying market was up 5%, that's a great snap back rally, maybe we're overbought, maybe time for a rest that's what we're i think sorting out is how defensive were people going into the weekend after a 5% run in the s&p. also the conclusion it doesn't change the overall picture, removes the potential immediate negative but leaves you with a sense of what are the credit markets telling us, how will growth shape up next year. >> cramer's point, it opens the door for potential bullish headlines. >> right. >> china agrees to order x number of excavators from caterpillar. >> i agree with that the 90 day would seem to work more to the advantage of the u.s. being able to say, we'll slap the tariffs on in 90 days i think it will be a lot of back and forth on that. i think it diminishes

i'm sara eisen wilfred flost will rejoin me in a moment along with mike santoli. cnbc's senior markets commentator. check out how we finished the day on wall street best day for the dow, s&p and nasdaq since march 2009. first time ever the dow has finished higher by more than 1,000 points 1,085 points that's good for a gain of almost 5% for the dow s&p 500 also climbing 5% all sectors there higher check out the nasdaq, up almost 6% this was a ferocious rally today, up 5.8% and the russell 2000 index of small caps up almost 5%, burks again, coming back from a very oversold market, according to everyone we've talked to. the it's been a rough year for auto stocks in particular with ford and gm posting steam declines, but tesla outdeperforming both and turning higher on the year what other stocks to buy that discussion among others coming up, but first today's market action. bob pisani here on of the floor. new york stock exchange and jackie d'angelis with the nasdaq and the moves there. what got this all started? >> yeah, remember, march 2009, 5% that's the last time

our guest host this morning is mike santoli good to see you. good to have you here as we talk about what happened yesterday, maybe set things up for this morning. stocks yesterday erased a 500-point drop in the dow to close 34 points higher it was something to watch throughout the course of the session. i asked what happened. what is the answer >> i don't think we missed any key headline, any one specific thing. i think you have to -- in these high stress markets, you have to relieve yourself of the idea that it's pricing in new information. in the morning, the s&p broke through 2600 it touched just about the closing low for the year about 15 points or 18 points lower. it seemed to be just about that. you had to touch the hot stove to see if it was hot and it was then europe closed the news about apple people are itchy to see if this bottom range will hold >> it's been down there four times, right >> just about four times yesterday there were two stocks down for every one up. the banks looked ugly. the transports were bad. it's not as if everyb

i am carl quintanilla with morgan brennan, mike santoli, post 9 of new york stock exchange jon fortt is off today volatility is the understatement of the week. major averages look to claw back some of monday's losses. in one week, saw the worst christmas eve ever, biggers inter day do

santoli is frequently with us down at the new york stock exchange to join the conversation mike, what do you make of this >> reporter: you know, on one level coming into today, the s&p was up wouldn't it make sense to back off even if you didn't see any other news flow. i think you also got this sense out there much like after the one-day pop following the mid-term elections that people were kind of forcing a rally yesterday because we got mostly what we expected and we've been thinking that we just needed to get a few things out of the way, these nuisance items which could be a big deal, any one of them. the perception of a very aggressive fed, the election and then some kind of a deferral the late cycle anxiety hasn't gone away. i think tactically today it got too high pressure in a hurry the transports and the banks together tanking, apple falling on a pure pile-on downgrade showing yesterday's bounce was not much of anything in that stock. there's a weird day tomorrow where you have a midweek market holiday. a lot of it is noisy that yield curve is getting too much attention but i

mike santoli here. a look at etfs. >> another way to look at this flattening yield curve we talk about it in terms of gaps of yields, which is what it is but it also represents rallies in some maturityies thre different slices of etfs, long-term bonds over a one-month period, 20 years and beyond, that's the most duration 4% in the last year or so. the very short term, from like one month out to three years basically steady those prices are always pretty steady in the middle there is the ishares, iei it's the rally in five-year notes that are driving this story. they're down so much in the last, let's say, less than a month from 303 to 281, way more than other maturities are down basically there's been a positioning shock in there, a lot of people short the middle of the curve but also if the message, if there is a message, is that we can see the end of the fed's tightening campaign coming into view, that five-year area is where you're probably going to have perceived value. yeah, we'll do a hike or two

mike santoli has been looking at how markets have historically reacted when and if the fed decides to take a pause. >> yeah. that's exactly right the market didn't hear clearly enough that there would be a pause, although if you look at the fed's on-paper outlook, two hikes out of eight live meetings, in theory there could be many months, even if they do two, is before they move again what the market had in mind a blueprint in the past where the fed did stop raising rates in response to a slowing economy. if you look at a 94-'95, the only engineered soft landing and very similar market action and this year is a bit worse at this point, and did you have the fed pause late that year and the market took the signal bond yields went down but stocks went up. 20 is 2015-2016 looked similar and janet yellen conveyed the fact that they were done, done for a full year. i'll point out in 2006, ben bernanke's final cut before the financial crisis happened in mid-2006 the markets did celebrate for a while. it was another year of a bull market when we still thought it was a pause as opposed to the

well, mike santoli starts us off tonight. >> stocks are clinging to slim gas after rallying on new clarity. so some are reaching bk a quarter of a centu to make their case for a strong 2019. several strategists parallels between now and the year 1994. both years saw stock indexes mostly range bound despite strong corporate earnings growth as the fed lifted rates aggressively to head off inflation. there was even a retaking of the house by the oppositio party to a first term president in 1994. this comparison isppealing to bullish investors because once the fed signalled in late '94 that it was nearly done , tighteni stocks took off. surging more than 30% in 1995 even as growth slowed and inflation stayed benign. of course, there are plenty of differences too. we are now deeper into the economic and credit cycle than in late 1994. stocks are less cheap now. and there's less room for profit margins to expand at thi point. still, even though in 1994-95 replay might be close to a best case scenario, that's n stopping the optimists from listening to the echoes from the earl >>> for more o where

i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and mike santoli. andrew is off today. let's look at the u.s. equity futures. we are under pressure. the dow futures are indicated down by 100 points this comes after the markets gave away some of the big gains at this time yesterday we ended with the dow up 290 points yesterday yesterday we were up in the morning by 500 points. all that was then enthusiasm after the informal talks with president xi this morning s&p 500 is indicated down by 8 points, after closing up 30 points yesterday. the nasdaq is indicated down by almost 38 points after gaining over 110 points yesterday. look at the treasury yields. the spread between the two-year and ten-year hitting the narr narrowest level we've seen since july of 2007 the spread between the fives and the threes and the fives and twos are now inverted. ten-year below 3%. 2.957% two-year at 2.821. the three-year at 2.822. the five yo-year at 2.812 mike, what does this tell us >> a few things. obviously at the short end of the curve only pricing in a couple more rate hikes immediatel

our guest host this morning is mike santoli, cnbc senior markets commentator. we've been watching the u.s. equity futures yesterday the markets were down by close to 800 points made a massive rally through the session to retrace about 90% of those losses with the dow ending down just 79 points by the end of the session this morning we are not building on that momentum red arrows once again with the dow futures indicated down by 140 points s&p down by 15 the nasdaq down by 48. just watching the action yesterday, what does that tell you? >> it doesn't tell you anything decisive i think it is better than if we closed on the lows ahead of a jobs report. normally the market has this tendency to pull itself into a more neutral position with a big number ahead of it the issue on the other side, at 3:30 the "wall street journal" headline hits, the story behind it, basically saying the fed will further consider -- >> stop the presses? >> it was that kind of a thing >> was a total stop the presses. i read it this morning yeah, in the last week it looked like -- ever sinc

i'm sara eisen with david faber and mike santoli carl has the morning off let's look at the markets. about a half hour into the trading session. stocks are gaining on this fed day morning. the 2:30 news conference, dow is up 155 s&p 500 up.75% and the nasdaq up 1% our road map will begin with the fed. it's decision day. investors are hitting the pause button as they await a possible rate hike. >> plus, this deal could change the face of health care. pfizer and glaxosmithkline joining forces it will become the largest producer of over-the-counter dr drug general electric has -- >> and fedex on pace for the worst day in ten years cnbc senior economics reporter steve liesman is with us from washington where he's honing his press conference question, no doubt. he'll tell us what we should expect to hear. >> been through three pencils already. the dovish hike, the fed signalled future hikes will be less certain here are some changes we could see today. we call it the keys to the fed it will reduce its growth outlook for from 2.5%, probably something lower than that. reduce the rate hike f

mike santoli, back to you. >> all right, rick santelli. that's rhtig we'll keep asking those questions. "squawk on the street" will be back after this. at fidelity, our online u.s. equity trades are just $4.95. so no matter what you trade, or where you trade, you'll only pay $4.95. fidelity. open an account today. >>> welcome back to "squawk on the street." stocks are trading higher this morning, but pulled back from session highs, real estate, utilities, and tech leading the s&p higher today consumer discretionary and financials are the laggards. industrials are flat despite higher at the start after more positive trade headlines came out today. some stocks making the biggest moves in the sector, you can see general electric up 8.7% united rentals up and caterpillar up almost 2% back downtown to you >> i'll pick it up thank you very much. >>> we have a few movers to point out. carl, you're watching some retail names. >> hard to find names doing well best buy, ralph lauren, under armour, and macy's, a seven month low back to may. we get re

i'm carl quintinilla with sara eisen and mike santoli at post 9 of the stock exchange. dow is up 70, s&p up about 13.5. >>> our road map for the hour begins with stocks higher this morning but having their worst december ever and on pace for their worst year in a decade the dow and s&p hovering near bear market territory. a breakdown of the buying opportunities and where they exist. >>> the president weighs in on stocks telling investors now is the time to buy but once again criticizes jerome powell more on that coming up. >>> and finding you opportunity in the new year. the names that should be on your radar as we close out 2018. >>> we'll begin with stocks, dow hanging on to a 66-point gain, having the worst december in market history, down more than 15% in the last three months alone, hovering with the s&p close to bear market territory szhau dow is 5,000 points off the record high and the president says it's a tremendous time to buy stocks listen. >> we have a normalized interest rate that means -- it's good for a lot of people. they have money in the bank, they get

. >> did you get emotional >> mike santoli is here. i'm emotional to be here with you. >> what emotion are you feeling? >> complicated one let's show you what's going on at this hour dow off almost 435 points. nasdaq down 155 points s&p down about 45 points we'll explain why all of this is happening in just one moment let's show you also what's happening overnight in asia. red arrows across the board with the hang seng taking the brunt of it down almost 2.5% european equities across the board, a similar situation germany and france down, the uk as well. finally treasury yields. the ten-year note at 2.894 kelly has the explanation. >> this is the big one it's within thing when it goes below 3% we were at 3.25six wee% six wee. >> early november is when the yield started to get compressed. >> which is the tail waging the dog on the yield curve >> everything we're worried about gets boiled into it right now. that's the signal. are people worrying too much about it hard to say. every time you get relief, whether it's on oil or china policy,

i am carl quintanilla, with mike santoli and jon fortt. bob pisani is covering the action stocks are continuing to sell off. we fell below 2600 on the s&p. >> 2603 is the old inter day low we had a short while ago, several weeks ago. we broke through that as well. that's the closing low, day after thanksgiving some technical, that's part of the problem here late in the day, technical breaches we're seeing two sectors to highlight which i have been talking about for a week one is banks we have 52 week lows on all the major money centers and larger regional banks energy, down a dollar in oil health care is the market leader that's down 1% industrial is also weaker on top of that. banks' new lows, down 400 on the dow. jpmorgan, morgan stanley, doesn't matter, all at 52 week lows we are going into the european close. often there's a bottom there in the past few weeks, we'll see if that happens as theresa may was talking, we drifted lower as you can see this is 10,600, that's a two year low on the dax. talking points for the markets, it is emph

i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and mike santoli the futures indicated now up about 431 points treasury yields are at about 3%, 3.05%. don't adjust your set. tom farley of the new york stock exchange is here at the nasdaq but he's no longer there he's actually making some real money now at a spac. and we welcome you here. the real money is as a cnbc contributor. because you're one of those as well we'll talk to you in a second. we have mnuchin coming up. did you realize that >> i'm looking forward to it >>> meanwhile, president trump just tweeting about this weekend's agreement at the g20 he writes, my meeting in ar argentina with president xi kwhouchbz an extraordinary one zbroords thing -- much to gain if and when a deal is completed. level the field. joining us now is our "squawk" news maker of the morning. steven mnuchin mr. treasury secretary, it's great to have you on today and the first question i was going to ask you was who's going to lead the negotiations peter navarro just said it's going to be lighthizer we put that up because it was a wire can you confirm hthat is

mike santoli is also with us today. andrew is en route to a big interview at 8:30. he's going to be with paul tudor jones, the hedge fund manager. something about just companies or something it's more socially responsible >> yeah. >> yeah. okay see what he has. i think he's also going to talk about debt on bubbles, things like that as well. >>> all right. the futures right now up 28 points they had been down averaging between 50 and 100 all morning so this is relatively recent we've gone from red across the board to green across the board. dow jones up 28. nasdaq up 21 we said kevin mccarthy was going to be on >> he's here >> i know. and we were down 50. it's been upticking. do you have some really good supply side type -- you know are you going to sell these recent economic policies the house has passed are you going to make it clear this is helping? >> it's obvious it's helping. >> okay. we're going to get to you. causation -- correlation is not causation. we did mention that he'd be on things did go higher but maybe not because of that. we'll see. did you bring y

mike santoli, back to you. >> rick, thank you very much. >>> we talk about fed communication, markets were moving this morning off the back of steve liesman's interview with fed president john williams steve joinls s us with more >> what the markets heard, why they would rally and rally off it, a lot of commentary from folks was the idea that the federal reserve is listening to the message of the market and incorporating that, maybe saying so strongly more than jay powell said it at the wednesday press conference, more affirmatively saying the fed was in corp rating those concerns. here's john williams on the idea of listening to the markets. >> we are listening very carefully to what's happening in markets for two reasons. one is financial conditions have important influence on the economic outlook, and we take that into account, think seriously about that second, i think we're hearing something important from markets, that's concern around risk to the economy and potential slowdown, further than we currently expect in the base case. >> mike, i think another thing important for the m

i am carl quintanilla with mike santoli, jon fortt at post 9 of new york stock exchange. the indexes losing some steam, still green across the board dow and s&p are positive for the year briefly after yesterday's session. major averages off highs as the president hints about positive news around the u.s., china trade war, productive conversations going on joining us, julian emanuel, and investment management chief strategist alicia levine welcome to you both. we have some cross currents to deal with. we know the u.s. and china spoke by phone after the huaway cfo arrest, you take that. >> we'll take it for now it is an example that the market will trade on different news on the trade side today it is great, may not be great tomorrow >> what's your take on this. how constructive do you read it? >> talk is better than no talk, no question about that if you're a professional investor in particular, today is a perfect example why you have been pulling out your hair the last couple of months. you have news on china in the morning, a major ceo of a technology company testifying

. >> i'm going to channel mike santoli and his column in terms of what we're seeing in the market now, seems to be a brewing debate whether it is an ugly correction or whether we're looking at bear market action. what are the charts telling you? >> you can make either argument. i fall on the side of believing in the bullish case because we're in one of the seasonally strongest months of december most of the seasonal strength in december occurs the last half of the months, after the 14th, which is friday. we're in options expiration week, one of the seasonally strongest periods there is to find we have to get less worry out today. saw the retail gods in charge of posting the close friday you have to like that level. they don't want a green number yet until they get the buying done would rather have everybody disbelieving in it, given the retail investors to disbelieve, bailout, abandon shares into the strong hands, but i expect seasonality to start working. >> and tom, in terms of some of the technicals or factors you're looking at in the market that lead you to believe that, what are

i am carl quintanilla with morgan brennan, mike santoli, post 9 of new york stock exchange jon fortt is off today volatility is the understatement of the week. major averages look to claw back some of monday's losses. in one week, saw the worst christmas eve ever, biggers inter day dow point game and biggest internet come back in a decade nasdaq is the laggard of the group. it is volatility that's the main topic of conversation. >> you should be cautious on this market until it stabilizes. it is like an earthquake the initial one may be 7.8, but there are aftershocks, and it is better to wait and be cautious the aftershocks could still be disruptive >> the big aberration in markets isn't this year, it is last year, when everything went right for investors. they got great returns, virtually no volatility and every car relation book in their favor. now we're transitioning back to something more normal which by the way is better over the long term i think one thing we have to worry about is that retail investors are looking at the markets and saying i don't get this, maybe i shouldn't b

our guest host this morning is mike santoli, cnbc senior markets commentator. we've been watching the u.s. equity futures yesterday the markets were down by close to 800 points made a massive rally through the session to retrace about 90% of those losses with the dow ending down just 79 points by the end of the session this morning we are not building on that momentum red arrows once again with the dow futures indicated down by 140 po

our guest host this morning is mike santoli good to see you. good to have you here as we talk about what happened yesterday, maybe set things up for this morning. stocks yesterday erased a 500-point drop in the dow to close 34 points higher it was something to watch throughout the course of the session. i asked what happened. what is the answer >> i don't think we missed any key headline, any one specific thing. i think you have to -- in these high

i'm melissa lee with joe kernen and wilfred frost sitting in with us for the next two hours is mike santoli. let's look at yesterday's record breaking rebound the dow logging its largest one-day point gain in history. the 4.98% gain was the biggest upside percent move since march of 2009. it was the biggest post-christmas rally for stocks ever retail led the way shares of wayfair, kohl's, dollar general jumping more than 7% amazon stock up 9.45%, wiping out declining from the christmas eve selloff. the stock pairing some of those gains this mor

we have mike santoli as a guest here this morning. we are watching the u.s. equities this morning. we're off the lows of the session by a long shot it looks like the futures are down by 35 points. the s&p down 4.5 and nasdaq down by 8 points. comes after a pretty horrific day on friday in the markets wrapping up a rough week dow down 4.5%. the nasdaq down by almost 5% mike, after friday's action, where are you feeling it

santoli and joe kernen it's great to see you. >> thanks for having me. >> we have lots to talk about. check out the futures. they are up sharply because of what happened at the g 20 this weekend. you'll see that the dow futures are up by 470 points this comes after a big week last week dow was up 5.2%. the s&p 500 is up 45 points.

i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and mike santoli. andrew is off today. let's look at the u.s. equity futures. we are under pressure. the dow futures are indicated down by 100 points this comes after the markets gave away some of the big gains at this time yesterday we ended with the dow up 290 points yesterday yesterday we were up in the morning by 500 points. all that was then enthusiasm after

. ♪ ♪ >>> good morning i am carl quintanilla with morgan brennan and mike santoli. jon fortt is on assignment we begin with full team coverage of the selloff another 600 points after 800 tuesday. the arrest of wow way cfo as they weigh china trade tensions. dow is down 2% and ylan mui has more on trouble for tech as silicon valley ceos have a meeting today with the trump administration first, jackie deangeles with breaking data. >> interesting day for oil we await a final decision from vienna you can see the losses are paired, and that's because the eia was out with weekly inventory report, delayed because of the national day of mourning yesterday what the number signifies is that even if production in the united states and globally is at high levels, if demand is there to meet that production that the oil market could find balance. u.s. production numbers, 11.7 million barrels a day, that stayed stable. it hasn't risen in three, four weeks. that's something investors are watching still in the session, down more than 3%, closer to 4%. $50.93 back to you. >> thank yo

i'm mike santoli >> we'll take a look at the mark right now. you stocks plunging on fears of slowing economic growth. the dow was down about 805 points it is trading down about 640 points or about 2.5% lower >> for a little per specific ifr the lows of the day the major index has given up about half of the six-day rally that we got. we'll see where we end up. coming up we'll talk to john waldron and what he says is behind today's selloff and talk to chris ailman, how he is reacting to this market volatility >> let's look at what's driving the

is an tolly for mike santoli with a deeper look. >> and i think that it is a fascinating spot right here that the market has worked itself into as you have pointed out, the s&p 500 went down 11% in like two weeks. so if you didn't get a very powerful bounce, it would be unusual. so the strength of the bounce i think right now tells you that we've interrupt this had sorted cycle of panicking selling i think christmas eve was kind of a oneoff emotional kind of shakeout i thought but where we are right now is still about 3%, 4% in the s&p 500 below the level in a we were terrified that we would crack through on the down side just a month ago go so that is where i feel like right now you're just sort of in a bounce mode and before we determine if it is more than a bounce, you probably do have to see further up side. but if in fact we have an interruption in that forced sellin selling, i think you could say valuations are unchal in thiunc right now. and the yield curve steepened up to 20 basis points while nobody was really looking because we were worrying about something else and so all

joining us n, mike santoli, our guest host ken langone i'll go to julia first you think there's any chance he doesn't raise today? >> i think they're going to raise rates today. i think there's been a lot of tl breathless commentary in the market but this is anticipated and justified on the basis of the da data yes, we've had a market correction yes, that's something that might inform them about future rate hikes, but this rate hike is -- >> so let's assume it's on the table. what's not totally on the table is exactly what he's going to say. >> exactly the real question is the message. i don't even think it's about the dot. they're going to come down probably but it's the message of what they need to see to hike rates again. how worried are they about the outlook which i don't think he's going to be -- i think he's going to want to express some optimism but not pollyanna-ish optimism you know, seeing what's going on in the world >> you think it's a mistake for them to raise today? >> i don't >> you think it's the right thing to do? >> i think it's probably the right thing to do. >> what is

santoli. so what was the revelation for you yesterday? >> i didn't have one >> you didn't? the market seemed to have a revelation >> look. the market hit a low several days earlier it bounced off of the fed and a trade deal that maybe was or wasn't a trade deal. >> clearly now it's a head fake. >> look. i've been pretty consistent all year long thinking we get a lot more market vol on tighter financial conditions globally, on higher rates volatility and that's come into -- that's come to pass about 2805 on the s&p has been my target since march 13th so the revelation really is when you're in an environment where you're going to get much tighter monetary policy, if the yield curve weren't so darn important, i'd be tired of talking about it curve is starting to invert, policy is tighter, and equity markets tend to be more volatile. >> what is the longer term prognostication, mike santoli? get out of the 12-hour, 24-hour -- >> it's tough. we're coming to the end of a year where i think the domina

let's get to our panel commentator mike santoli, steven reese from jpmorgan private bank, and steven desantis from jeffries mike, do you get -- no one knows. i just wonder what would have happened if powell had maybe not in the question and answer period if it had been more market friendly. do you think we'd be in a different place right now? >> i think you would have had a probably rally attempt interest in people trying to step in. >> there were stocks for sale after that happened. were the stocks for sale either way? >> as you said, probably could have slowed it down. maybe you would have had a rally for a week or something like that but i don't know it changed the overall picture enough to say that was the trigger because look at all the other things the past three months >> a lot of it seems related to the original long way from neutral comment. >> i mean, what we were also saying before powell was you still haven't seen on a short-term tactical basis that big flush. you haven't really seen indications of panic yesterday we got a lot of that more than 52-week lows it's a plausib

mike santoli is still here you're sitting next to me so i'm going to you first there's an overlay of a couple things in terms of the way the market is reacting we've got this brexit issue plus the theresa may vote of no confidence coming up we have the fireworks that happened in the oval and now the president saying he may step in the huawei news. what do you think the market is looking at >> i don't think the market is moving in precise increments ticking to every one of these headlines. i think the market is reacting to the overall heightened noise level. the noise level is very high you know, the futures right now on the s&p are going to get you back to where we traded last friday >> by the way, we've had head fakes every morning. >> that's my point the market wants quiet the market wants to price in what the fed's going to do and all the rest of it i think we backed ourselves into a place of a lot of people thinking we need some kind of progress on trade to kind of liberate us from this period it's not clear to me that we're going to get that before the end of the year and the ma

. >>> another big sellingooff on street, the dow closing down about 500 points mike santoli is checking out the chart that could signal more pain ahead >> are on the market already braced for a lot are more pain ahead. this is from jim paulson it shows four cyclical sectors financials, industrials, consumer discretionary and materials. and compared to the overall index. so a relative performance of cyclicals versus depends sifens. we're hitting lows that are below what we saw at the beginning of 2016, that period that much mads up in some ways with what we're going through right now, lots of fears of global slowdown. and in goes all the way back to 2011 when we had the european debt scare and the debt ceiling kind of stand ovoff in the jund. so i think the market has already gone a long way to pr e pricing it in. >> and when you list those secto sectors, slightly more effective than in past years by other fact are tore like tra ors like trade >> exactly and you're right, materials and industrials really are a proxy for a global reflation story and that obviously -- by the way today was

i'm sara eisen here with scott walker and mike santoli on this new year's eve live from post 9 at the new york stock exchange let's take a look at the markets. we do have an end of year-rally here the dow is up 213, all on some on city micptimioptm he's tweeting he's made big progress with china's president xi will real progress actually follow >>> plus trade optimism closing out at extremely volatile q4 folks on wall street like barry saying that the fed is missing something. >> right well, i agree with barry, sara i think he's absolutely right that we're pretty close to neutral and the fed is beginning to realize with the reaction function coming through. so i think the market's getting that confidence is that they're not raising interest rates with what they were going to. they may not rads at all in the is coming year i think in the real time, they' they're adjusting to that. the street is still at 173 and too high so they've already locked a slowdown in earnings and growth and that's going to impact the upside in 2019. >> what you're saying is you're putting it all on the fed? if

time for our etf spotlight mike santoli is back looking at financials falling deeper into bear market territory. >> carl, that's right. the overall sector down more than 20% from early year highs if you look on a year to date basis, xlf down 13% to 14% the kce is one i like, that's the capital markets etf, asset managers, investment banks, things like that, they have been hurt a lot but the pure banks are also at the center of this i think this selloff has gone beyond trying to explain it with oh, it's a flat yield curve, it will be a slowdown next year in terms of the overall economy into asking what else might the performance of the banks be telling us whether it's concerns about corporate loans, that is feeding in you're hearing people saying tax laws look cheap but unwilling to find a positive catalyst so this chart shows the flow into and out of the xlf, the s&p spdr financial sector etf from renaissance macro showing we've dipped into a heavy liquidation phase. it shows you money coming out of the eat jeff similar to previous periods when you've seen the xlf getter sold. the mar

santoli. here is how we are finishing up this kind of crazy monday on wall street. nasdaq, as you can see up about three quarters of a percent. it will close lower by 5 points. coming up chris ailman and david rosen berg will join us. take a look. it was microsoft and jpm have the biggest gainer a big day for defense stocks mike, let's get your take on what happened tonight. >> you know, it was a pretty impressive comeback but a way to make a flat market seem like good news. it really was flat if you looked inside it two stocks down. not great. you can't really have too many rallies when the banks go down more than 1% as a group. the market, you know, this market brushes to the next test it seems like. we knew that the lows, 2,600 was out there and it wants to just kind of punch through and see if they find sellers down there they didn't. so i think it's another, you know, you take it as it could have been worse. you to have a few of these before you know this is now defined. >> is 2,600, does

mike santoli at the tele-strator with more. >>s in free cash flow yield for the s&p 500. the catnip indicator free cash flow is what's left after you pay for everything else this is in percent this is a free cash flow yield almost 5.5% right now. you see higher is cheaper. this is the inverse of price to free cash flow now we know what we are looking at you can see the market was cheaper back in 2014, 2015 but it's about as inexpensive almost as it was -- this is the diamond bottom, january, february, 2016 right before the 2016 presidential election. so you see stocks got more expensive peaked, came back. it looks like valuation is a little bit less of a headwind, maybe even as a cushion because returns were pretty good when you bought stocks in this range. but look at the next chart which shows kind of a related effect corporate bond borrowing costs corporate borrowering costs. this is triple b corporate bond yield. lower investment he had grade. what you have to spend you see back here when stocks were similarly cheap it was low. here it's higher clearly this is going t

what are you playing the role of mike santoli? >> i haven't got there in time we will be doing that. we will be doing that a bit later in the show or are we going to do it now we are working this out. >> let's talk fed. >> we know people will miss out on him >> you have to get ready >> the fed is expected to meet next week. everybody is expecting an interest rate hike it is causing a lot of angst as jim cramer just told us. let's talk about what he will or won't dohere >> it lowers the path of interest rates in their plot at least over the next year >> kale back those projections >> i think they need to market their forecast the fact is that it hasn't been cooperating with underlying goals. if you look at the change it is only running like barely 1% on a three month basis. those actually hooked back down. he is also kind of revived looking at the tips market which is something that i think was some what abandoned by yellen. you know, i think that the data and obviously what has gone on isn't really aligning in my view for a hike i

santoli with trading nation. hi, mike. >> tyler, hello. let's talk fedex here. those shares a bit higher ahead of earnings after the bell those earnings bringing some welcome relief to a stock beaten down this month. its shares are down 18% in december so is a bigger bounce possibly coming? matt, it's been a really steep decline in fedex it's taken the stock back to where it was trading more than a year and a half ago actually, april of 2017. so what do you see in the charts right here in terms of the prospects for some relief? >> well, it actually has a lot of potential now we'll have to see what happens with the earnings tonight, but the stock, if you look at the weekly chart, it's broken below its 200-week moving average. usually that's pretty negative for a stock. but it's only done that three times since the financial crisis on all three of those occasions it bounced back very quickly in fact it averaged a rally of 45% over the next six months you look at its weekly rsi it's only been this oversold five othe

. >>> good morning, welcome back to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintinilla with mike santoli and david faber at the new york stock exchange. sara eisen will join us in a moment with the an exclusive, the outgoing chairman of coke, muhtar kent. stick around for that. in the meantime, as we start this friday morning, a big show ahead starting with the november jobs number. payrollsup by 155,000 versus expectations of 198,000. unemployment holds steady. markets responding today as the major averages swing between gains and losses and the anxiety of the trade truce weighing on investors. the president trying to temper those fears tweeting oil prices up as reports indicate opec may have reached a deal to cutout put. we'll take you live to the meeting in reason is in a few moments. david kelly is here and diane swonk, chief economist with grant thornton talking about the numbers we got what did you think of that and the wage number and the revisions? >> well, you know, stocks evolve, the job market isn't this is what we were expecting the unemployment rate, you take it out to an extra

i'm mike santoli check out energy stocks today surging on hopes of buy cuts and falling inventories stabilize oil markets at last. marathon, halliburton. can you trust this move here off the lows bill of blue line futures and michael of rockefeller capital join us now. so, bill, obviously, a heavy struck sector and energy sector is down 3% in three months can you sniff out signs that there is a real low here >> for the bad news first, you have multiple failed breakouts out above that late 2016 high. and the market sold off 20% looking at the xle the 50-day moving average moving below the 200 moving average battling at a psychological $50 mark double bottom right here and a crucial, technical level 61.5 and double bottoming against that mid-2017 low. given that, i have to give it a shot down here that level gets taken out, look out below. look for some recovery through this month but i am worried about the first quarter of next year >> giving it a shot, but it looks a little precarious. energy stocks are showing up on a lot of value screens right or wrong i don't know if that interested you in

re mike santoli thank you. one thing with you, your partner likes bitcoin and things like that do you >> i don't dislike it. the prices you see changed is not the same thing as apple. the opportunity for mischief is infinite on the crypto currency changes. >> thank you so much for being with us. that does it for us today, make sure you join us tomorrow. right now it is "squawk on the street." ♪ >>> good tuesday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i am carl quintanilla, david faber and jim cramer at the new york stock exchange. a productive phone call on trade on monday night. google may meets with the e.u., janet yellen is worried we could have another financial crisis. wholesale inflation is a little warm, up 2.7 futures point to another rally on sign of a possible progress on trade deal. >> global growth and challenges, the ceo and in coming chairman of coca-cola is joining us this morning, he's going to talk trade and economic outlook and the beverage giant switching strategy and mr. pichai makes h

i'm morgan wilfred frost will rejoin me in just a moment as well as mike santoli. here is a look at how we are finishing the wild day on wall street the dow has finished down just 77 points. this is after being down earlier in the day similar story. we saw this late afternoon rebounds there finishing down only four points the level there is 2695. the nasdaq actually finishing the day in the green 7188 similar story for the nasdaq the russell 2000 finishing the day down .02%. u.s. china trade, the flattening yield curve and in the past half hour or so this report that the fed considers slowing down the pace of rate hikes we have two big exclusive interviews coming up this hour we have ibm ceo and doug mcmillan we are recovering from all of the angles we have bob tracking the big movers here. we have been keeping an eye on tech >>> let start with you this is 2632 as i recall the important thing is we bounced. we saw a bottom at the close for the european markets it was down 1,500 points in two days we turned around not just because of what we are told we had headline

i tried to bridge that >> i don't know why, but we'll go to mike santoli at the nyse what have you got? >> who ever knows why. thank you very much. let's talk gold. it is lower today. has been offering some shelter against the stock selloff this month though precious metals resilience even drawing praise from jim krarm last night so will the traditional safety play continue to outperform? craig johnson and erin gibbs craig, does the move have legs or no? >> you know, i look at this chart and i think cramer is spot on correct it looks like we're putting in a bottom here and it looks like we'll see this maybe 9% to 10% higher to get back to the old highs. cramer talked about it being a bit of a fear trade. i think that we could see some weakness in the dollar her given that the fed might be less hawkish going forward. and that might be really the underlining driver as to why we'll see the gold prices go higher and it should be certainly very good for stocks like abx, the value side of the world at this point. >> and i guess it comes do unto whether you think this is the moment perhaps to