jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. yield" startsl right now. coming up, fresh trade tension providing even more fuel for the global bond market rally. 10 year treasury yields breaking down to new lows of the year. bund yields printing a new record. uncertainty leaving high-yield credit element exposed. spreads widen, funds suffer. we begin with a big issue, more fuel for the treasury market rally. >> the bond market rally right now is a risk off trade. >> massive flight to safety. >> rushing into treasuries. >> the perfect storm in the treasury market. >> people are very nervous. >> people are coming around to the various factors and uncertainties. >> growth is slowing. >> declining global growth. >> trade tensions. >> rhetoric with china is not only back but escalating. >> new tariffs on mexico. >> this is a real problem. >> this is what the market is trying to do, recalibrating how much risk we should price in. now are ourining us guests, great to see you guys. your thoughts on the big moves we have seen in yields this week? >> it is interest

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. startsrg "real yield" right now. coming up, the president unleashing higher tariffs on china and the could be more to come. a rush of supply into global credit markets. issuers getting ahead of potentially escalation. soft inflation adding to trade tensions, adding fuel to rate cut debts. we begin with the big issue, a wall of uncertainty met with resilient optimism. >> i don't think we should me moving from an exuberant to a panic mode. >> let's say we have a trade war that last for a reasonably long period of time. >> the fed is going to cut and the chinese policymakers will continue actually increasing their level of stimulus into the economy. world economy is lifting but looks resilient enough to hold up to these terrorists --tariffs. fundamentals actually look better for most of the u.s. large-cap space. >> earnings look pretty good. >> still an appetite for risk asset. >> the long game. >> the process is ongoing. >> the vulnerability with respect to trade talks is something that

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. coming up, another jobs report delivering solid gains, taking the jobless rate to a 49-year low. not enough to put rate cut bets to bed as there remains uncertainty. treasuries looking resilient. we begin with the big issue. one more goldilocks jobs report. >> kind of feels a little bit goldilocks. >> goldilocks is the best description i've heard. >> still seeing strong growth. >> you cannot argue with the numbers. >> inflation has been muted. >> we are having a really great job growth. super good job growth. >> the recovery looks like it has legs to it. >> the business cycle is in good shape, no inflation. the fed is staying away. >> we are calling it a nirvana. jonathan: we could cut that opening sequence and play it every month for the next two months. let's bring in our guests. kathleen, how long have we been doing this goldilocks business with payrolls report? kathleen: forever. it is getting old. jonathan: will it change? kathleen: we are

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. "real yield" starts right now. coming up, another jobs report delivering solid gains, taking the jobless rate to 849-year low. not enough to put rate cut bets to bed as they remains uncertainty. treasuries looking resilient. we begin with a big issue. one more goldilocks jobs report. >> kind of feels a little bit goldilocks. >> goldilocks is the best description i've heard. >> still seeing strong growth. >> you cannot argue with the numbers. >> inflation has been muted. >> we are having a really great job growth. super good job growth. >> the recovery looks like it has legs to it. >> the business cycle is in good shape, no inflation. the fed is staying away. >> we are calling it a nirvana. jonathan: we could cut that opening sequence and play it every month for the next two months. let's bring in our guests. how long have we been doing this goldilocks business with payrolls report? >> forever. it is getting old. jonathan: will it change? >> we are close. everything is poised to jump.

jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, fresh trade tension providing even more fuel for the global bond market rally. 10-year treasury yields breaking down to new york -- new lows for the year. bund yields printing a new record. uncertainty leaving high-yield credit element exposed. spreads widen, funds suffer. another week of outflows. we begin with a big issue, more fuel for the treasury market rally. >> the bond market rally right now is a risk off trade. >> massive flight to safety. >> the flight to risk-free assets and into bonds. >> rushing into treasuries. >> the perfect storm in the treasury market. >> people are very nervous. >> people are coming around to the various factors and uncertainties. >> the combination of the safe haven demand of treasury plus the idea that growth is slowing. >> declining global growth. >> lackluster growth. >> trade tensions. >> rhetoric with china is not only back but escalating. >> new tariffs on mexico. >> mexico. --t

jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. coming up, treasury yields hitting their 2019 lows driven by anxiety of trade and growth. the latest uncertainty coming from the u.s. economy, manufacturing data showing signs of weakness. chipping away at a high-yield market, digesting the monthly supply so far this year. we begin with the big issue. what will it take to get the fed to change course? >> i think without lights where -- they like where they are right now. >> they are not going to do anything precipitously. >> nothing in the data is forcing their hand. >> to get the fed off of where they are. >> to raise rates or cut rates exceptionally high. >> if the trade talks really break down further turning of the fire here. >> further escalation of the trade tariffs. >> the growth data. >> in the end, it will be the data that drives the fed. >> if we get a slow down. >> the economy starts slowing down. >> i have zero doubt in my mind, in that environment, the fed is cutting rates. >> they are watching like the rest of us. jonath

jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. coming up, treasury yields hitting their 2019 lows driven by anxiety of trade and growth. the latest uncertainty coming from the u.s. economy, manufacturing data showing signs of weakness. chipping away at a high-yield market, digesting the monthly supply so far this year. we begin with the big issue. what will it take to get the fed to change course? >> i think without lights where they are right now. >> they are not going to do anything precipitously. >> nothing in the data is orcing their hand. >> to get the fed off of where they are. >> to raise rates or cut rates exceptionally high. >> if the trade talks really break down further turning of the fire here. >> further escalation of the trade tariffs. >> the growth data. >> in the end, it will be the ata that drives the fed. >> if we get a slow down. >> the economy starts slowing down. >> i have zero doubt in my mind, in that environment, the fed is cutting rates. >> they are watching like the rest of us. jonathan: joining me to dis

this is bloomberg "real yield." ♪ jonathan: i'm jonathan ferro. we want to head to the auction block where u.s. companies are heading to the continent, europe , borrowing at the passes rate in years. cheap funding cost learn them across the atlantic. than twoissuing more thirds of its $8.2 billion offering in euros. risk off markets to the week. investors absorbing just shy of $30 billion worth of investment grade supply, including dow chemicals. new two to refinance maturities was nearly five times covered. the junk revival challenged by the biggest weekly outflows since december. six new deals coming to market including barrett global. that offer needed to be cut in half amid rising trade tensions. bob michael, krishna memani, and james athey is with us. we sawa compared to what at year end. how do things stack up at the moment? bob: pretty good to me. there is a bit of a binary outcome here. if there is some sort of trade agreement or framework and it gets pushed off, the weight of money coming into a market with default rates below 1% pushes h

jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. yield" startsl right now. coming up, treasury yields hitting their 2019 lows driven by anxiety of a trade and growth. the latest uncertainty coming from the u.s. economy, manufacturing data showing signs of weakness. a high-yield at market, digesting the monthly supply so far this year even we begin with the big issue. what will it take to get the fed to change course? >> i think without lights where they are right now. >> they are not going to do anything precipitously. >> nothing in the data is forcing their hand. >> to get the fed off of where they are. >> to raise rates or cut rates exceptionally high. >> if the trade talks really break down further turning of the fire here. >> further escalation of the trade tariffs. >> the growth data. >> in the end, it will be the data that drives the fed. >> if we get a slow down. >> the economy starts slowing down. have zero down in my mind coming in that environment, the fed is cutting rates. >> they are watching like the rest of us. jonathan: join me to discuss is k

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, the president unleashing higher tariffs on china and there could be more to come. a rush of supply into global credit markets. issuers getting ahead of potential escalation. soft inflation intensifying trade tensions, adding fuel to rate cut bets. we begin with the big issue, a wall of uncertainty met with resilient optimism. >> i don't think we should be moving from an exuberant to a panic mode. >> let's say we have a trade war that lasts for a reasonably long period of time. >> a long, protracted trade war. >> the fed is going to cut and the chinese policymakers will continue actually increasing their level of stimulus into the economy. >> the world economy is lifting a little in some corners but looks resilient enough to hold up to these tariffs. >> fed policy and chinese stimulus. those are the things that matter in those pillars stand. >> the fundamentals actually look better for most of the u.s. large-cap space. >

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, the president unleashing higher tariffs on china and there could be more to come. a rush of supply into global credit markets. issuers getting ahead of potential further escalation. soft inflation adding to trade tensions, adding fuel to rate cut bets. we begin with the big issue, a wall of uncertainty met with resilient optimism. >> i don't think we should be moving from an exuberance to a panic mode. >> let's say we have a trade war that lasts for a reasonably long period of time. >> a long, contracted trade war. protracted trade war. >> the fed is going to cut and the chinese policymakers will continue actually increasing their level of stimulus into the economy. >> the world economy is lifting but looks resilient enough to hold up to these tariffs. >> fed policy and stimulus. those are the two that matter. >> the fundamentals actually look better for most of the u.s. large-cap space. >> earnings look pretty good. >>

jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, trade tensions simmering. chinese state media signals a lack of interest in talks. investors turning increasingly cautious. high yield bond funds seeing the biggest outflows since december, leaving the treasury market prime for a rate cut with yield near 2019 lows. we begin with the big issue, the market looking for the fed to nail a soft landing. >> we think we will have a soft landing. >> pretty soft landing. >> a soft landing for the global economy. >> big central banks becoming notably easier. >> easier monetary policy. >> i think they are in a good spot. >> the u.s. economy appears to be in pretty decent shape. >> what is the fed going to do in a different circumstance which because of the trade issues, actually the economy starts slowing down? >> the fed could start to cut rates. >> rate cuts. >> you will have a cut if trade talks break down. >> i have zero doubt in my mind that in that environment the fed is cutt

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, another jobs report delivering solid gains, taking the jobless rate to a 49-year low. not enough to put rate cut bets to bed as the soft service sector puts a lid on the mild treasury selloff market. treasuries looking resilient. we begin with the big issue. one more goldilocks jobs report. >> kind of feels a little bit goldilocks. >> goldilocks is the best description i've heard. >> still seeing strong growth. >> strong. >> you cannot argue with the numbers. >> inflation has been muted. >> inflation and other measures are modest. >> we are having a really great job growth. super good job growth. >> the recovery looks like it has legs to it. >> it is stable, it is fine. the business cycle is in good shape, no inflation. the fed is staying away. >> headwinds are fading. >> we are calling it a nirvana. jonathan: we could cut that opening sequence and play it every month for the next two months. it would be relevant. let's bring in

♪ jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, treasury yields sitting here 2019 lows driven by anxiety of trade and growth. the latest uncertainty coming from the u.s. economy, manufacturing data showing signs of weakness. and, chipping away at a high-yield market, digesting the most monthly supply so far this year. we begin with the big issue. just what will it take to get the fed to change course? >> i think the fed likes where they are right now. >> they are not going to do anything precipitously. >> until their hand is almost forced. >> nothing in the data is forcing their hand. >> to get the fed off of where they are. >> to raise rates or cut rates is exceptionally high. >> if the trade talks really break down further turning up the fire here. >> further escalation of the trade tariffs. >> the growth data. >> in the end, it will be the data that drives the fed. >> if we get a slow down. >> the economy starts slowing down. >> the fed will move aggressively. >>

jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, trade tensions simmering. chinese state media signals a lack of interest in talks. investors turning increasingly cautious. high yield bond funds seeing the biggest outflows since december, leaving the treasury market run -- market prime for a rate cut with yield near 2019 lows. we begin with the big issue, the market looking for the fed to nail a soft landing. >> we think we will have a soft landing. >> pretty soft landing. >> a soft landing for the global economy. >> big central banks becoming notably easier. >> easier monetary policy. >> i think they are in a good spot. >> the u.s. economy appears to be in pretty decent shape. >> what is the fed going to do in a different circumstance which because of the trade issues, actually the economy starts slowing down? >> the fed could start to cut rates. >> rate cuts. >> you will have a cut if trade talks break down. >> i have zero doubt in my mind that in that environment t

jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. coming up, trade tensions simmering. chinese estate media is not interested in talks. investors turning increasingly cautious. high yield bond fund's seeing the biggest outflows since december, leaving that treasury market right for rate cuts with yields near 2019 lows. we begin with the big issue, the market looking for the fed to nail a soft landing. >> we think we will have a soft >> landing. >> pretty soft landing. >> soft landing for the global economy. >> big central banks becoming notably easier. >> easier monetary policy. >> help of financial assets. >> i think they are in a good spot. >> i think they are in a good spot. >> u.s. economy seems to be in pretty decent shape. >> what is the fed going to do in a different circumstance which because of the trade issues, actually the economy starts slowing down? >> the fed could start to cut rates. >> you will have it capped if -- if the trade talks really breakdown. that she will really have a cut if the trade talks really breakdown

jonathan: from new york city to our audience worldwide, i am jonathan ferro. "bloomberg real yield" starts right now. coming up, another jobs report delivering solid gains taking the jobless rate to a 49-year low. the service sector growth fuels uncertainty. treasuries looking resilient. we begin with the big issues. one more goldilocks jobs report. >> kind of feels a little bit goldilocks. >> goldilocks. >> goldilocks is the best description. >> very strong growth. >> looks good. >> we cannot argue with the numbers. >> inflation has been muted. >> inflation and wage pressures are modest. >> where having really great job growth, super good job growth. >> it's stable, it is fine. there is no inflation. >> the head winds fading. >> we are calling it nirvana. jonathan: we can play that opening sequence every month and the next month and the next month, and it would be relevant. let's bring in the table. kathleen, how long have we been doing this goldilocks business with the payrolls report? >> forever. it is getting really old. jonathan: is it going to change? >>

jonathan: from new york city and our audience worldwide, i am jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. coming up, another jobs report delivering solid gains taking the jobless rate to a 49 year low. the service sector fuels uncertainty. treasuries looking resilient. we begin with the big issues. one more goldilocks jobs report. >> kind of feels a little bit goldilocks. >> goldilocks. >> goldilocks is the best description. >> very strong growth. >> looks good. >> we cannot argue with the numbers. >> inflation has been muted. >> inflation and wage pressures are modest. >> really good job growth, super good job growth. >> it's stable, it is fine. there is no inflation. winds fading. >> we are calling it nirvana. jonathan: we can play that opening sequence every month in the next months and the next month. our guests. kathleen, how long and we been doing the goldilocks business report? payrolls >> forever. it is getting really old. >> it is going to change. >> it will, and i think we are getting close. everything is so crowded it is poised to just j

this is "bloomberg real yields." ♪ jonathan: i'm jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg real yield." i want to go to the auction block heading into the u.s., the treasury keeping its nominal coupon and floating rate debt steady at a record high amid a growing budget deficit. the united states will be selling $84 billion in 3, 10, and 30-year notes. this is over the next week. elsewhere, strong demand remaining in the high-grade market. bolling selling $3.5 billion in senior unsecured bonds. they're offering -- the offering coming in five parts. and finally, tesla tapping the debt market yet again, raising about $1.6 billion in convertible notes. the bonds pricing at the high end of the initial range communicated to investors, allowing tesla to boost the size of the offering. that is the auction block. let's get to the broader story. global monetary action weighing on interest rates worldwide, keeping investors on the hunt for yield. bob michael of jpmorgan believes central bankers are bullying investors into buying. >> the ecb has bullied us and the rest of the market into it. they a

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, the president unleashing higher tariffs on china and there could be more to come. a rush of supply into global credit markets. issuers getting ahead of potential further escalation. soft inflation adding to trade tensions, adding fuel to rate cut bets. we begin with the big issue, a wall of uncertainty met with resilient optimism. >> i don't think we should be moving from an exuberance to a panic mode. >> let's say we have a trade war that lasts for a reasonably long period of time. >> a long, protracted trade war. >> the fed is going to cut and the chinese policymakers will continue actually increasing their level of stimulus into the economy. >> the world economy is lifting a little bit in some corners but looks resilient enough to hold up to these tariffs. >> fed policy and training stimulus, those are the two that matter. those two pillars still stand. >> the fundamentals actually look better for most of the u.s. la

♪ jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. coming up, treasury yields sitting here 2019 lows driven by anxiety of trade and growth. the latest uncertainty coming from the u.s. economy, manufacturing data showing signs of weakness. and, chipping away at a high-yield market, digesting the most monthly supply so far this year. we begin with the big issue. just what will it take to get the fed to change course? >> i think the fed likes where they are right now. >> they are not going to do anything precipitously. >> until their hand is almost forced. >> nothing in the data is forcing their hand. >> to get the fed off of where they are. >> to raise rates or cut rates is exceptionally high. >> if the trade talks really break down further turning up the fire here. >> further escalation of the trade tariffs. >> the growth data. >> in the end, it will be the data that drives the fed. >> if we get a slow down. >> the economy starts slowing down. >> the fed will move aggressively. >> i have zero doubt in my mind, in that environment, the

♪ jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. coming up, treasury yields sitting here 2019 lows driven by anxiety of trade and growth. the latest uncertainty coming from the u.s. economy, manufacturing data showing signs of weakness. and, chipping away at a high-yield market, digesting the most monthly supply so far this year. we begin with the big issue. just what will it take to get the fed to change course? >> i think the fed likes where they are right now. >> they are not going to do anything precipitously. >> until their hand is almost forced. >> nothing in the data is forcing their hand. >> to get the fed off of where they are. >> to raise rates or cut rates is exceptionally high >> we could hav. >> if the trade talks really break down further turning of up the fire here. >> further escalation of the trade tariffs. >> the growth data. >> in the end, it will be the data that drives the fed. >> if we get a slow down. >> the economy starts slowing down. >> the fed will move aggressively. >> i have zero doubt in my mind, in tha

jonathan ferro speaking exclusively to pimco's ceo and cio. interesting conversation there. we question whether the sovereign markets have gone too far or if we get to 2% on the 10 year yield. meanwhile, the five year bond index is just short of all-time highs. where are we in the cycle yet eimear: you have to be concerned with high-yield bond credit at these levels. we are looking for double-dip in china, for growth to slow as we go into the second quarter. even if we look at the u.s., the first quarter, if you look and dig down into the detail, the underlying structure of the u.s. economy is weakening. we saw fixed asset investment coming off. the quality of growth is not great. if we have a full-blown trade war, corporate profitability will be hit. that is one major global flareup. can i ask you about the italian-european affair? we are back to square one. our guests during the week have said this is not an exit stencil threat yet, but then i listened to baron berg yesterday, and they were saying the risk is italy commits fiscal suicide. have you factored in the potential

matt: that was jonathan ferro speaking exclusively to the ceo and cio of pimco. peter is still with us. this is something the ecb was saying, as well. they include corporate credit risk is one of the big downside risks, one of the main four, to the financial stability of europe. would you agree? peter: i think this is one of the problems. in choosing to purchase assets, they are changing the price of those assets. they are reducing the yield on those assets, so as they move away from these purchase programs, there has to be a point where markets reprice. it has clear contractionary implications for the economy. --t: i remember kevin near blog who i follow on his "the macro tourist," and he was talking about the risk of the bbb risk. risk to -- they may be forced to get in order because they want to be non-junk rated. i see that that whole story about deleveraging, that is how i see this playing out in the u.s. and to a lesser degree in europe, but in the u.s. for sure. this is one of the reasons we think equity markets are, in most scenarios, likely to move to su

." ♪ jonathan: i'm jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg real yield." i want to head to the auction block where u.s. companies are heading to the continent, europe, borrowing at the fastest rate in years. cheap funding cost lured them across the atlantic. fidelity national lead the surge, issuing more than two thirds of its $8.2 billion offering in euros. in a broadly risk off markets through the week, quality was the place. investors absorbing just shy of $30 billion worth of investment grade supply, including dow chemicals $2 billion offering, the deal to refinance new two maturities was nearly five times covered. the junk revival challenged by the biggest weekly outflows since december. six new deals coming to market including barrett global. that $2 billion offering needed to be cut in half amid rising trade tensions. bob michele, krishna memani, and james athey is with us. bob, your view on high yield? no drama compared to what we saw at year end. how do things stack up at the moment? bob: they look pretty good to me. there is a bit of a binary out

this is "bloomberg real yields." ♪ ♪ jonathan: i'm jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg real yield." i want to go to the auction block heading into the u.s., the treasury keeping its nominal coupon and floating rate debt steady at a record high amid a growing budget deficit. the united states will be selling $84 billion in 3, 10, and 30-year notes. this is over the next week. elsewhere, strong demand remaining in the high-grade market. bolling selling $3.5 billion in senior unsecured bonds. they're offering -- the offering coming in five parts. and finally, tesla tapping the debt market yet again, raising about $1.6 billion in convertible notes. the bonds pricing at the high end of the initial range communicated to investors, allowing tesla to boost the size of the offering. that is the auction block. let's get to the broader story. global monetary action weighing on interest rates worldwide, keeping investors on the hunt for yield. bob michael of jpmorgan believes central bankers are bullying investors into buying. >> the ecb has bullied us and the rest of the market into it. they a

vonnie: pimco ceo manny roman and cio dan isaacson speaking with jonathan ferro. joining us now to talk more fixed income is bloomberg's life reporter heather burke who joins us from london. let's start with europe and italy. negative yields all over the block. italy seems to be an exception. explain why we are seeing the 10 year in italy rise and particularly spread closing out 300 basis points again. we are seeing a return of fears of budget contagion. italy wants to enact plans to improve employment, bring it back as it emerges from our session and part of that is running a budget deficit that might go over eu limits and the european union has said it is considering disciplinary actions which could lead to millions of euros of fines for italy. that is bringing back the ghost we saw last year that rock stocks and italian bond yields. we also have the coalition government fragile. the prime minister saying he would be willing to break the coalition. italy is a hotspot in an area where people have been going to the safety of bonds. vonnie: you can see the spread h

bloomberg's jonathan ferro spoke exclusively with pimco's ceo and cio on where they see opportunity in credit. >> a lot of what we are trying to do isn't dissipate the next investment opportunity for our clients. we talk about credit issuance. a lot of that occurs outside the united states, within emerging markets, across asia, even pockets of europe. a lot of our growth areas are focused on where we anticipate the best returns. in this business, you have to start sometimes multiple years before that opportunity actually is out there and ready to be realized, so that is one of the key areas of our focus. resources with a slight tilt towards credit. jonathan: let's talk about private credit markets. is that an opportunity? manny: it is an opportunity, and it is something we have been doing for 11 years. it is an opportunity, and it is going to become even more attractive. jonathan: how scalable is it? it is never going to be as scalable as what pimco does on the liquid side, and it doesn't matter. are we you think is there opportunities because of what banks used to do that they don't d

dan iversen and manny roman spoke exclusively with jonathan ferro. a lot of what we are trying to do is anticipate the next investment opportunity for our clients. we talked about credit, credit issuance. a lot of us are outside the united states with emerging markets across asia and pockets in europe. our growth areas are focused on where we anticipate the best return. you have to start sometimes multiple years before the opportunity is out there and ready to be realized upon. that is one of the key areas of our focus, resources with a tilt towards credit. jonathan: let's talk about private credit markets. is that an opportunity? >> it is something we have been doing for 11 years. it is an opportunity that will become more attractive when the business cycle turns. >> how scalable is it? >> it will never be as scalable as what pimco does on the liquid side and it does not matter. opportunities are because of what banks used to do that do not do anymore, for us to do those things. it goes from lending against real estate to buying securities in housin

this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide. i'm jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, stocks bouncing back. tensions linger. --asury yields betting treasury yields to 2019 year lows. vice-chairman claret or -- clarida. bank of america joining citigroup and jpmorgan flagging pain. teachers are positive on the s&p 500. -- futures are positive on the s&p 500. the lows for the year on the 10 year treasury yield, 2.25. that is where we begin. is the bond market flashing a warning sign >>? indicators of fears of recession are closer than people would expect. >> we are probably the riskiest credit market. >> the panic is in the bond market. >>

. ♪ jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, the president unleashing higher tariffs on china and there could be more to come. a rush of supply into global credit markets. issuers getting ahead of potential further escalation. soft inflation adding to trade tensions, adding fuel to rate cut bets. we begin with the big issue, a wall of uncertainty met with resilient optimism. >> i don't think we should be moving from an exuberance to a panic mode.

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. coming up, the president unleashing higher tariffs on china and there could be more to come. a rush of supply into global credit markets. issuers getting ahead of potential escalation. soft inflation adding to trade tensions, adding fuel to rate cut bets. we begin with the big issue, a wall of uncertainty met with resilient optimism. >> i don't think we should be moving from an exuberant to a panic mode.

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, the president unleashing higher tariffs on china and there could be more to come. a rush of supply into global credit markets. issuers getting ahead of potential further escalation. soft inflation adding to trade tensions, adding fuel to rate cut bets. we begin with the big issue, a wall of uncertainty met with resilient optimism. >> i don't think we should be moving from an exuberance to a panic mode. >> let's say we ha

jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. coming up, trade tensions simmering. chinese estate media is not interested in talks. investors turning increasingly cautious. we begin with the big issue, the market looking for the fed to nail a soft landing. >> we think we will have a soft >> landing. >> pretty soft landing. >> big central banks becoming notably easier.

. ♪ jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide. i'm jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, treasury yields bouncing off 2019 lows. the market still primed for a rate cut. president trump lending to delay auto tariffs on the eu and japan. the focus remaining on china as the white house ratchets up the pressure, moving to curb huawei access to u.s. markets. futures positive eight points on the s&p 500. up .33%. we have bounced away from the lows. 2.40 on the u.s. 10 year. higher on the 2-year note. up three basis points on the tenure maturity. let's begin with markets pricing a rate cut and a soft landing. >> the possibility of rate cut. >> the odds of a rate cut. >> much later than the year. >> the federal reserve is near a rate cut than a rate hike. >> not any signs. >>

jonathan ferro is south of los angeles in newport, california. you go out to pimco and chat them up, that is a good thing. given where markets and bonds are, this is remarkable. it centers around discussions with manny roman and dan iversen. look for that throughout the day. right to first word news. white house national security adviser john bolton says there is no reason for iran to break the nuclear treaty unless it is trying to build atomic weapons. he is meeting with officials from the emirates, and said iran is almost certainly behind attacks on oil tankers in the gulf. china found a new way to battle the u.s. on trade. it is gearing up to weaponize its dominance of rare earth. china may restrict rare earth exports to the u.s.. the u.s. gets 80% of those minerals from the chinese. it has been a rare outburst of tornadoes in the u.s. over the last month. more than 500 twisters have been logged as severe weather hit from the rocky mountains to the mid atlantic. yesterday was the 12th day with reports of at least eight tornadoes. belondon, the

. ♪ jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide. i'm jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, china confirming its top trade negotiator will be heading to washington, d.c. this week as the u.s. administration ratchets up the pressure, threatening to hike tariffs as soon as friday. global markets on edge, investors hopeful differences can be reconciled before the weekend. here is your tuesday price action. futures lower by 20 on the s&p. down .7 on the s&p. euro-dollar weaker. treasuries, after yesterday's bid stable and unchanged on the 10 year yield -- 2.47%. we begin with a big issue. investors betting the president straight threats are just part of the plan. >> i would like to believe it is a negotiating tactic. >> i would see that more as a game. >> it will bring a lot more uncertainty. >> uncertainty. >>

. ♪ jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide. i'm jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, the fed taking down rate cut back. chairman powell says soft inflation is transitory. china and the u.s. inching toward an agreement. one report suggests a deal could be done by next week. the smallest of improvements in european manufacturing data. enough to lift gloom from the euro. 30 minutes away from the opening bell. futures unchanged. slightly negative by not even a point on the s&p 500. euro-dollar down to 1.12. u.s. 10 year. we begin with jay powell upsetting rate cut bets. >> core inflation unexpectedly fell, and as of march stood at 1.6%. we suspect transitory factors may be at work. >>

coming up, "the open" with jonathan ferro. thanks for joining us. ♪ at comcast, we didn't build e nation's largest gig-speed network just to make businesses run faster. we built it to help them go beyond. because beyond risk... welcome to the neighborhood, guys. there is reward. ♪ ♪ beyond work and life... who else could he be? there is the moment. beyond technology... there is human ingenuity. ♪ ♪ every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected, to do the extraordinary. take your business beyond. jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide. i'm jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. ♪ thethan: coming up, president shattering the calm on wall street, threatening to hike tariffs on chinese imports, fueling a big risk off move. u.s. equity futures dropping, haven assets rallying. the world awaiting china's response. trade officials consider delaying this week's trip to washington. 30 minutes until the start of trade. good morning. up 1.5.on the s&p and in th

. ♪ jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide. i'm jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, equities back in uncharted territory. results from apple fueling another like higher. the federal reserve decides chairman how stuck between tepid inflation and solid growth. wrapping up trade talks in beijing. secretary mnuchin calling the meeting productive. here is your wednesday price action. futures positive .25%. us news in the bond market. 2.50 on the u.s. 10 year. the reason for the lift is apple giving the equity market a lift across the board. that stock positive almost 5%. we begin with the big issue. the federal reserve stock on hold. >> we think the fed is on hold. >> on hold. >> off the table. >> no reason to raise. the fundamentals of the u.s. economy is strong. >>

i'm jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, china's trade team headed to washington. equity losses, the threat of tariffs hanging over the markets ahead of the most anticipated ipo in years. uber prepared to go public. 30 minutes until the start of trading. futures at their lows. down more than 1%. in the fx market, euro-dollar around 1.12 as always. treasury yields coming down five basis points. yield is 2.44%. we begin with heightened uncertainty ahead of trade talks weighing on markets worldwide. this is the view from goldman sachs. economists now saying new terms are more likely than not. writing "the odds are higher that new tariffs will take effect

. ♪ ♪ jonathan: from new york city, i am jonathan ferro. the countdown to the open starts now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, investor anxiety around trade lingers. huawei might be used as a bargaining chip, the president says it could be part of a trade agreement with china. and prime minister may making plans for her exit, stepping down in two weeks. 30 minutes from the open this morning. good morning. positive atup 14, 5/10 of 1% higher. the euro-dollar 111.95. we begin with a big issue. what will it take for the fed to change course? >> i think it will stay there until the hand is a must forced. >> nothing in the data is forcing their hand. >> the bar for the

. ♪ jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, trade tensions simmering. chinese state media signals a lack of interest in talks. investors turning increasingly cautious. high yield bond funds seeing the biggest outflows since december, leaving the treasury market prime for a rate cut with yield near 2019 lows. we begin with the big issue, the market looking for the fed to nail a soft landing. >> we think we will have a soft landing. >> pretty soft landing. >> a soft landing for the global economy.

jonathan ferro spoke exclusively to pimco ceo manny roman along with the cio on the strategic move to hire more tech talent. manny: i think we felt we needed an office to hire talent in technology. when it comes to hired tech people, we compete against other financial companies but we also compete against big tech companies and also startups. at six different locations and concluded austin gives us the university, the best place for us over the next 20 years to hire a significant amount of talent and technology, then we will move some small part of the business which makes sense to be in texas. so that was quite attractive. we did a quite in-depth study. so far, we have about 100 people down there. >> you have been expanding. you've expanded into municipals as well. any gaps that you are looking to fill? any holes you with to fill over the next couple -- you would look to fill over the next couple of years? manny: it is whether you know something about it and how you are going to grow it. i think we are of the view we want to grow organically. from time to time, there could be small t

this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide. i'm jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, the president delaying a decision on eu and japan auto tariffs for at least 180 days. not enough to settle nerves as china stiffens it stands. state media signaling a lack of interest in trade talks sending global stock markets on it. 30 minute -- on edge. 500, down1 on the s&p .7%. in the bond market, yields lower by three basis points. 2.37 is your yield on u.s. 10 year. euro-dollar 1.1176. let's begin with china digging in its heels over trade talks. >> it does look to be on a generally escalating trend. >> beijing has become more hawkish. >> recently we have said it is a series of s

we will continue the coverage later, at the top of the our jonathan ferro and i will take you to the cable our on dab digital radio and all of your bloomberg devices. we will talk about the german data and what is happening with the fed and the trade narrative as well. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is "the european close" on bloomberg markets. goldman sachs financial leverage conference is underway. ed hammond is there. ed: thank you. -- i'mined by christina joined by the cohead. it is great to be here. have hadke we could more fun having this conversation in december. let's talk about the now. the fed warning there is new risk in the credit market. a lot of the high risk borrowers seem to be taking on new leveraged loans. is that something we should be concerned about? christine: thank you for being here. this is our fourth annual leveraged finance conference for the firm. to be uptty excited 13% in terms of attendance. there's a lot of talk about your question. one of the panels i was just on -- our manager f

. ♪ jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, i'm jonathan ferro. bloomberg "real yield" starts right now. coming up, another jobs report delivering solid gains, taking the jobless rate to a 49-year low. not enough to put rate cut bets to bed as there remains uncertainty. treasuries looking resilient. we begin with the big issue. one more goldilocks jobs report. >> kind of feels a little bit goldilocks. >> goldilocks is the best description i've heard. >> still seeing strong growth.

jonathan ferro spoke with manny roman and dan ivascyn from their office. >> across different areas of the market, but by far the most important area for us is at the credit markets. a decade and low yields. fort has been a great time weak issuers issue paper in europe. in the u.s., a very weak covenant. it has been good for them. when things get worse, we think we have many opportunities to buy them cheap. week, high-yield credit, weak covenant and business which are sick nickel -- cyclical, of course. >> what was interesting about spending the day with you guys was how bearish you are about credit. manny: bond managers are always bearish, right? >> i have to say i've been struck by just how bearish the firm seems to be on corporate credit. subtle point. when we look at the world today, we see some near-term uncertainty that could be resolved. liquidity, central banks. within the credit sector, spreads can certainly go tighter over the short term. this is the single area of the financial markets that are prone to the downside when people's views toward economic growth change. as prima

jonathan ferro will be in new york, i will be joining him in london. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: rich clarida is currently on his feet. the vice chair at the fed. let's give you a flavor of what he's saying. >> what is less finally appreciated in this article is that friedman's paper contains a concise and insightful discussion of the natural rate of interest. the real interest rate that is consistent with price stability. rstar provided key reference points for economyg how long the may be, they play no role in the monetary policy that he advocates. his well-known rule that central bank should aim for and deliver a constant rate of growth of the monetary aggregate. this simple rule, friedman believes, could deliver longer price stability without requiring -- guy: let's talk a little bit about what lynch -- about what rich clarida has said about the policy formulation story. what, ife will weigh any, further adjustments are needed. the fed looks like it will be sticking to the patient line it has been delivering. the market has been unconvinced that th