marilyn watson is still with me, bob michele, george bory. boj not even a part of the conversation going into next week. should it be? marilyn: they have been on the sidelines. expectations were high, maybe a little bit too high in terms of what the ecb may do. the bank of japan still has this enormous problem. they could maybe change their forward guidance, could do more in terms of qe. i think it is very hard for them to do anything. perhaps hoping for more from the ecb, they didn't come through. the bank of japan has been easing, has been so loose for so long, it fades into the background because it is accepted. we expect not too much next week. certainly, at some stage, they will have to do more. jonathan: your thoughts going into next week, bob? bob: i think the fed will do 25 basis points. i do not think powell, williams, and clarida have the vote to do 50. i think they are uber dovish, that they send the message they are serious. jonathan: if it were up to those three, they would go 50? bob: absolutely. they are mostly market practitio

marilyn watson is still with me, bob michele, george bory. boj not even a part of the conversation going into next week. should it be? marilyn: expectations were high, maybe a little bit too high in terms of what the ecb may do. japan still has this enormous problem. they could maybe change their forward guidance, could do more in terms of qe. i think it is very hard for them to do anything. perhaps hoping for more from the ecb, they didn't come through. the bank of japan has been easing, has been so lose for so long, it fades into the background because it is accepted. i thinkwe expect not too much nt week. certainly, at some stage, they will do more. jonathan: your thoughts going into next week, bob? bob: i think the fed will do 25 basis points. think claire ptak, powell, and williams have the vote to do 50. i think they are uber dovish, that they send the message they are serious. jonathan: if it were up to those three, they would go 50? bob: absolutely. they are mostly market practitioners, they have been in our seat, they understand that

marilyn watson is still with me, bob michele, george bory. boj not even a part of the conversation going into next week. should it be? marilyn: they have been on the sidelines. expectations were high, maybe a little bit too high in terms of what the ecb may do. the bank of japan still has this enormous problem. they could maybe change their forward guidance, could do more in terms of qe. i think it is very hard for them to do anything. perhaps hoping for more from the ecb, they didn't come through. the bank of japan has been easing, has been so loose for so long, it fades into the background because it is accepted. we expect not too much next week. certainly, at some stage, they will have to do more. jonathan: your thoughts going into next week, bob? bob: i think the fed will do 25 basis points. i do not think powell, williams, rida have the vote to do 50. i think they are uber dovish, that they send the message they are serious. jonathan: if it were up to those three, they would go 50? bob: absolutely. they are mostly market practitioners, t

marilyn watson is still with me, bob michele, and george bory. the boj not even a part of the conversation going into next week. marilyn should it be? ,marilyn: it has been on the sidelines for quite some time. expectations were high, maybe a little bit too high in terms of what the ecb may do. a complete change we will see from the fed when they do cut rates. the bank of japan still has this enormous problem. change theirybe forward guidance. they could do more in terms of qe or something. i think it is very hard for them to do anything. we are perhaps hoping for more from the ecb, they didn't come through. so i think the bank of japan has been soing and has loose for so long, it fades into the background because it is accepted. we expect not too much next week. certainly, at some stage, they probably will have to do more. jonathan: your thoughts going into next week, bob? bob: i think the fed will do 25 basis points. i don't think that powell, clara do and williams -- richard clarida and williams have the vote to do 50. i think they are uber do

we talked to bob michele about ever lower interest rates. and jon ferroe will kill it on "real yield" later. we have come up better than that in the recent years. what is the ramification to our system if we get a jp morgan outlook of a zero interest rate? europeanized or japanized? tom p.: it is important to wonder whether we are becoming europe down the road, and the structural evidence drives home we are going in that direction. this notion of the aging of the population, that is very real. isess you can have -- here the thing that could save the day. you could have a productivity boom. if you could put in place the right policy to enable turnctivity to continue to at a reasonable -- churn, you can brent that impact but that is much easier said than done. short of that, trend growth in the united states will slim out. tom: we have a $1 trillion deficit in the trump white house. policywe affect fiscal to provide remedy to jp morgan's call? tom p.: this is a much bigger conversation. tom: we have one minute. tom p.: what i would say is the

jonathan: can we get to bob michele's big call? we are moving towards 0%. we have to get to it sooner or later, let's do it. we are heading toward 0% on the u.s. 10 year yield at some point over the next two years, bob. walk us through it, then we can have a conversation on it. bob: we are speeding there without anything happening. if you think about the high-end yield, it was the first week in november, 3.25%. a few weeks ago we hit 1.93%. the 10-yearield on disappeared without anything happening. if you look at the fed, they may endn to raise rates, may the balance sheet runoff, they have not done those things yet. money market funds are in record highs. you look at other asset classes, they have appreciated. where is the money coming from? it is coming in from overseas because most of those markets are in negative yield. they are hunting around for yield. they see a global economy which is slowing down. i disagree with the expectations on inflation. the fed is right, they should be wary. remember, their old reaction function when doing qe was any time th

it is a big call from bob michele. a multi-year call, looking for the 10 year treasury yield to head to zero. your thoughts, please? noelle: that makes sense if you think that the recession is kind of looming, but that is not our base case. we are not seeing any signs of a recession. we don't expect the fed to be on a full-blown cutting cycle. we think that we will only see two this year and that will be enough to get growth back on track, which right now we are calling for a modest 2% growth and inflation a little bit higher. i think that is just what the fed needs. jonathan: noel, you touched on something important. it all hinges on where you think we are in the cycle. "as of july 1, we are in the longest economic cycle in modern history, which means you have to pick a camp, either we are headed towards a near-term recession, or we are in a super cycle." gershon, which one? gershon: always hard to say in the short-term. listen to the yield stuff. some of those people calling for much lower rates are those that called

a big call from bob michele. a multi-yearr call, looking for the 10 year treasury yield to go to zero. your thoughts? noelle: that makes sense if you think recession is kind of lumen ooming, but that is not our base case. we are not seeing signs of a recession. we don't expect the fed to be on a full-blown cutting cycle. we are only going to see two this year and that will be enough to get growth back on track, which right now we are calling for a modest 2% growth and inflation a little higher. that is just what the fed needs. jonathan: it all hinges on where you think we are in the cycle. as of july 1, we are in the longest economic cycle in modern history, which means you have to pick a camp, either we are headed toward near-term recession, or we are in a super cycle. gershon, which one? gershon: some of those people calling for lower rates are those that called for a 3% 10 year a few years ago. this is the only industry where you can be wrong again and again and people still want to know your view. it is reall

a big call from bob michele. a multi-your call, looking for the 10 year treasury yield to go to zero. your thoughts? if you think recession is kind of lumen but that is not our base case. we are not seeing signs of a recession. fed to be onct the a full-blown cutting cycle. we are only going to see two this year and that will be enough to get growth back on track, which right now we are calling for a modest 2% growth and inflation a little higher. that is just what the fed needs. jonathan: it all hinges on where you think we are in the cycle. are in the1, we longest economic cycle in modern history, which means you have to pick either we are headed toward near-term recession, or we are in a super cycle. one?on, which gershon: some of those people calling for lower rates are those that called for a 3% 10 year a few years ago. this isgershon: the only induste you can be wrong again and again and people still want to know your view. what europe has taught us is there is no lower bound. if equities are weak, if the e

lisa: it depends on how you interpret bob michele's call. he said rates would go to zero over some period of time, which is probably true. jonathan: a multi-year period. lisa: over some period of time they will probably go to zero because in the next recession, they only have 250 basis points of cuts to do, so they will probably end up at zero. that is a fair assessment but i don't think it's happening in the next 12 months. jonathan: i want to view on something bob michele has also talked about. the amount of money in money market funds right now and the idea that when a rate cut comes, that money will need a new home and it will be treasuries. can you walk us through what you think of that particular call? noelle: we think treasuries are largely priced. especially on the front end, we are calling for two cuts, and the market is calling for closer to four. we really like it a little bit more into the credit sectors. we think a lot of that money will go back into ig. valuations have come in a lot, obviously, but we think there is still room

a big call from bob michele. a multi-year call, looking for the 10 year treasury yield to go to zero. your thoughts? noelle: if you think recession is kind of looming, but that is not our base case. we are not seeing signs of a recession. we don't expect the fed to be on a full-blown cutting cycle. we are only going to see two this year and that will be enough to get growth back on track, which right now we are calling for a modest 2% growth and inflation a little higher. i think that is just what the fed needs. jonathan: it all hinges on where you think we are in the cycle. frances donald weighing in on all of this -- as of july 1, we are in the longest economic cycle in modern history, which means you have to pick either we are headed toward near-term recession, or we are in a super cycle. gershon, which one? gershon: some of those people calling for lower rates are those that called for 3% 10 year a few years ago. this is the only industry where you can be wrong again and again and people still want to know yo

it is a big call from bob michele. a multi-yearr call, looking for the 10 year treasury yield to go to zero. your thoughts? noelle: that makes sense if you think that the recession is kind of lumen, but that is not our base case. we are not seeing signs of a recession. we don't expect the fed to be on a full-blown cutting cycle. we think that we will only see two this year and that will be enough to get growth back on track, which right now we are calling for a modest 2% growth and inflation a little higher. i think that is just what the fed needs. jonathan: it all hinges on where you think we are in the cycle. "as of july 1, we are in the longest economic cycle in modern history, which means you have to pick a camp, either we are headed toward near-term recession, or we are in a super cycle." gershon, which one? gershon: always hard to say, some of those people calling for lower rates are those that called for a 3% 10 year a few years ago. this is the only industry where you can be wrong again and again and people sti

jonathan: i caught up with bob michele earlier in the week and he believes this may be the beginning of what is still to come in the market, that this rally is still getting going. what do you think? it is: we think definitely not just the beginning but there is some room to go, particularly due to the uncertainties in trade that we have on the sidelines, the higher-quality more liquid asset classes. em.higher-quality all of it, the rally continues at least into the majority of this year. the fed and globally, inflation is just not there. that will allow central banks to be flexible. peter: i prefer credit, i think. we could see yields backup. we are in an ok spot for investment grade in particular. any fears about a rate spike impacting corporate balance sheet. but we are starting to see, the companies that have performed with the debt diet, stock prices are starting to respond well. healthy balance sheets, no leverage. people will be paid for their carry. jonathan: a little bit more comfortable about the bbb space? peter: i have liked it all year. i don't think we are going to see

i caught up with bob michele earlier in the week and he believes this may be the beginning of what is still to come in the market, that this rally is still getting going. what do you think? noelle: we think it is definitely not just the beginning but there is some room to go, particularly due to the uncertainties in trade that we have on the sidelines in the higher-quality more liquid asset classes. ig, higher-quality em. all of it, the rally continues at least into the majority of this year. the fed and globally, inflation is just not there. that will allow central banks to be flexible. jonathan: peter? peter: i prefer credit, i think. we could see yields back up. we are in an ok spot for investment grade in particular. companies are doing well. any fears about a rate spike impacting corporate balance sheet. but we are starting to see, the companies that have performed with a debt diet like at&t who refocused their debt, stock prices are starting to respond well. healthy balance sheets, no leverage. people will be paid for their carry. they will be protected from their interest rate

jonathan: i caught up with bob michele earlier in the week and he believes this may be the beginning of what is still to come in the bond market, that this rally is still getting going. what do you think? noelle: we think it is definitely not just the beginning but there is some room to go, particularly due to the uncertainties in trade that we have on the sidelines, the higher-quality, more liquid asset classes. ig, higher-quality em. all of it, the rally continues at least into the majority of this year. the fed and globally, inflation is just not there. that will allow central banks to be flexible. peter: i prefer credit, i think. we could see yields back up. we are in an ok spot for investment grade in particular. any fears about a rate spike impacting corporate balance sheet. but we are starting to see, the companies that have performed with the debt diet, stock prices are starting to respond well. i think that is what you will see. healthy balance sheets, no leverage. people will be paid for their carry. you will be a little protected from interest-rate volatility. jonathan: a

i caught up with bob michele earlier in the week and he believes this may be the beginning of what is still to come in the market, that this rally is just getting going. what do you think? noelle: we think it is definitely not just the beginning, but we think it has some room to go, particularly due to the uncertainties in trade that we have on the sidelines in the higher-quality more liquid asset classes. ig, higher-quality em. all of it, the rally continues at least into the majority of this year. because the fed and globally, inflation is just not there. that will allow central banks to be flexible. jonathan: peter? peter: i prefer credit, i think. i think we could see yields back up. i think we are in an ok spot for investment grade in particular. companies are doing well. any fears about a rate spike impacting corporate balance sheet. we are starting to see, the companies that have performed with a debt diet like at&t who focus on fixing their debt, stock prices are starting to respond well. i think you will see healthy balance sheets, no leverage. people will be paid for their c

i caught up with bob michele earlier in the week and he believes this may be the beginning of what is still to come in the market, that this rally is still getting going. what do you think? noelle: we think it is definitely not just the beginning but there is some room to go, particularly due to the uncertainties in trade that we have on the sidelines eating -- in the higher-quality more liquid asset classes. ig, higher-quality em. all of it, the rally continues at least into the majority of this year. the fed and globally, inflation is just not there. that will allow central banks to be flexible. jonathan: peter? peter: i prefer credit, i think. we could see yields back up. we are in an ok spot for investment grade in particular. companies are doing well. any fears about a rate spike impacting corporate balance sheet. but we are starting to see, the companies that have performed who a debt diet like at&t refocused their debt stock , prices are starting to respond well. healthy balance sheets, no leverage. people will be paid for their carry. they will be protected from their interest

tom: bob michele yesterday. please get that report through jp morgan. a number of people asked if i could send it out. we always protect the copyright of our guests, including james sweeney of credit suisse. the 10 year yield from eisenhower to voelker and then down. i have done it logarithmic where slope matters. have we broken the volcker slope? james: i think we have. tom: how, what is the evidence we have broken the 20 or 30 year disinflation? james: if you break it into the inflation component and real yield component, inflation stopped falling in the mid to late 90's and has largely gone sideways. real yields have stopped falling over the last 10 years and it looks a lot like it has been going sideways. tom: a sideways chart, i will bring that out to about eight years out as well. within that, as you mentioned earlier, increased productivity. what part of productivity will surprise the gloom crew? james: i think productivity over the next 10 years will be better than it was in the past 10 years. labornd capital dynamics, dynamics, or technology? j

obama martin luther king bob marley muhammad ali but african-americans are far from being at the reins they're still being systematically disadvantaged his work on the streets is also the fight for equal opportunities. afraid. the polling says. that paris is scared you. know bad. this is the most courageous generation of young black and brown people in this world is right here. my thinking back in direct courage to a real fight. is going to help us as a people. just think of what could be accomplished. bernie trying to keep his own son orlando out of the gang life but he was in jail when he finally got out orlando was already in the age of 17 sentenced to 55 years for mudda if there's one thing bernie regrets and it's losing his son to the streets. grew up in a camilla's he did that was part of the destruction my reputation so all he grew up all his life was only that's the bonus so yeah it means to portray. it thinking he was living up to my. so when he had a conflict instead of resolving it. by that he resolved it in a way. and that was through violence and it cost him 55 you know th

obama martin luther king bob marley muhammad ali but african-americans are far from being at the reins they're still being systematically disadvantaged his work on the streets is also the fight for equal opportunities. afraid. the polies this give you that paris is scared you. know bad. this is the most courageous generation of young black people in this world is right here. my thinking back in direct courage to a real fight fight that's going to help us as a people. just think of the what could be accomplished bernie trying to keep his own son orlando out of the gang life but he was in jail when he finally got out orlando was already in the age of 17 sentenced to 55 years for mada if there's one thing bernie regrets and it's losing his son to the streets. he grew up in the camilla's he did i was part of the destruction there my reputation so all he grew up all his life was. to put straight and. think if he was living up to my. so when he had a conflict and started resolving it. by that he resolved it in a way. and that was right and it caused them in fact you know that was like. the s

obama martin luther king bob marley muhammad ali but african-americans are far from being at the reins they're still being systematically disadvantaged his work on the streets is also the fight for equal opportunity. the schools are afraid that you. the polies is scared of the you that paris is scared of the you and you for a scared know bad. and this is the most courageous generation of young black and brown people that this world will ever see is right here. so my thinking they are back and read direct that courage to a real fight a fight that's going to help us as a people. just think of what could be accomplished. bernie trying to keep his own son orlando out of the gang life but he was in jail when he finally got out orlando was already in the age of 17 sentenced to 55 years for mada if there's one thing bernie regrets and it's losing his son to the streets. he grew up as he did i was part of the destruction that my reputation so all he grew up all his life. to put straight. and it thinking he was living up to my image so when he had a conflict and started resolving it. by that he

obama martin luther king bob marley muhammad ali but african-americans are far from being at the reins they're still being systematically disadvantaged his work on the streets is also the fight for equal opportunities. the schools as afraid are you for. the polies this good or the you. that paris is scared of the you and you face good no bad. and this is the most courageous generation of young black and brown people that this world will ever see is right here so it might take in the evacuate direct courage to a real fight a fight that's going to help us as a people. just think of that what could be accomplished. bernie trying to keep his own son no lando out of the gang life but he was in jail when he finally got out orlando was already in and the age of 17 sentenced to 55 years for mada if there's one thing bernie regrets that it's losing his son to the streets. he grew up in the camilla's he did that was part of the destruction that my reputation so all he grew up all his life. to put straight. thinking he was living up to my image so when he had a conflict instead it resolved. by th

obama martin luther king bob marley muhammad ali but african-americans are far from being at the reins they're still being systematically disadvantaged his work on the streets is also the fight for equal opportunity. afraid that you are the polies this good or that you that paris is scared of you and you know bad. and this is the most courageous generation of young black and brown people in this world is right here so back in direct their courage to a real fight a fight that's going to help us as a people. just think of that what could be accomplished. bernie trying to keep his own son orlando out of the gang life but he was in jail when he finally got out orlando was already in at the age of 17 sentenced to 55 years for mada if there's one thing bernie regrets and it's losing his son to the streets. grew up in the community as he did i was part of the destruction and my reputation so although he grew up all his life. it means to put straight with dick and. thinking he was living up to my image so when he had a conflict and started bizarre. he resolved it in a way. and that was through

this is bob capper from time magazine. i know there's a member in the audience who knew bob kappa. he was eventual ri killed. he was covering the war in indo china. we found the pulad hotel, run by madame pulad. she served delicious omelets for which she was famous. that's ma dom puld. a lot of fighters gathered. we were closer to the front line if you could call it such than we were at our main bases and there we see the river that separates normandy from brittany. this is a beautiful little island, and the building at the top is a monastery that was still intact. it was not destroyed at all, and here are some of our gis looking over the sites of the monastery being shown around by a woman guide. soon we met some of the other correspondents we knew, and here we see charles collingwood the gentleman on the right with helen cookpatrick of chicago daily news and the bald headed chap, liebling wrote many stories for new yorker magazine, and he died not many years ago. this is charles collingwood and helen kirk patrick of the chicago daily news. this is ernest hemingway. hemmingway was

. >>> as michele fiora reports, police have laid trap for an alligator in chicago. >> curious watched from above. it's strange to look over the bridges knowing there could be a five-foot alligator in there. >> alligator bob got in the water. and the alligator resurfaced. >> the first to see the gator around 6:30 a.m. and she photographed a girl's quinceaÑera. >> if you to see the reptile, please do not approach it. call 911 and 311. >> alligator bob is now on a mission to save the gator hoping to catch it because he says it won't survive well cold weather returns and it's not big enough to be a danger to humans. >> if it comes on shore and somebody runs to it, it will run back into the water. this is not like a 12 to 15- foot alligator like they have in florida. the critics have been silenced. i grew up here. people have been known to throw pirn yas and there was baby shark in here many years ago. >> this is not the first alligator found in the area. a kayaker found an abandoned alligator measuring four feet. >> imagine a san francisco -- >> would not survive with the cold water here